starting

It has been an up and down year for Warren Buffett’s portfolio. Many of his biggest positions have been trimmed aggressively. But according to recent filings, his holding company, Berkshire Hathaway, is loading up on one of Buffett’s favorite stocks. Last quarter, it boosted its position by more than $500 million.

On paper, this stock has it all. It’s priced at a discount to the market, offers a compelling dividend yield, and could generate impressive growth over the next few years.

This has been one of Warren Buffett’s favorite stocks since 2020

Berkshire Hathaway first took a position in Chevron (CVX 0.94%) back in 2020, not long after the nadir of the COVID-19 flash crash. Buffett’s estimated purchase price was around $80. But over the years, he has managed the position aggressively. In early 2021, for instance, just one year after his initial purchase, Buffett slashed his Chevron stake by more than 50%. Towards the end of 2021, however, he began rebuilding his position. Several more purchases and sales occurred in 2022, including the massive acquisition of 121 million shares in the first quarter.

Notably, Berkshire has been a net seller in recent quarters. In six of the past seven quarters, for example, Berkshire has sold more Chevron stock than it purchased. But that all changed this quarter when Buffett purchased nearly 3.5 million shares worth roughly $520 million. It was one of the biggest stock purchases of the quarter for Buffett, giving Berkshire a 7% stake in the entire business.

Why did Buffett load up on this giant oil stock that he knows so well? The numbers below paint a compelling picture.

Chevron stock looks very attractive for certain investors

After several consecutive winning years, the stock market as a whole isn’t obviously a value right now. The S&P 500, for example, trades at 31 times earnings — well above its long-term average. Chevron stock, meanwhile, trades at just 19 times earnings. Revenue growth is stagnant right now, but free cash flow remains high, helping to support a 4.5% dividend yield.

Part of the challenge with Chevron stock right now isn’t under its direct control. Oil prices slid heavily this year, falling under $60 per barrel. Oil inventories continue to rise, with meaningful surpluses expected in 2026 due to rising production globally. In total, it’s a tough place to be for businesses that sell oil.

As an integrated producer, with interests in refining, chemical production, and even energy generation for artificial intelligence applications, Chevron has long been able to manage industry cyclicality with ease. Chevron’s CEO focuses on cost controls and capital efficiency to ensure profits remain stabilized even with low oil prices. But unless those oil prices move higher, expect so-so results from Chevron — a big reason why shares have traded sideways since 2022.

Here’s the thing: Chevron stock is still a very compelling purchase for certain investors. If you’re finding it difficult to find market values, are worried about a potential bear market, or believe geopolitical tensions are about to rise, allowing oil prices to recover quickly, Chevron shares could be a fit. While shares aren’t a steal, they are arguably fairly valued at 19 times earnings. The dividend yield and free cash flow consistency, meanwhile, can help offset losses during a market downturn. And given ongoing geopolitical disputes, it’s not unreasonable to expect sudden shifts in oil demand and supply.

All in all, this looks like a classic move for Buffett in this market environment. He understands Chevron’s business model well, and with a rising cash hoard, it’s clear that he’s finding it difficult to spot market bargains. Chevron is as close to a value stock in today’s environment as it gets.

Hi and welcome to another edition of Dodgers Dugout. My name is Houston Mitchell. Somewhere in baseball heaven Fernando Valenzuela is saying to himself, “A complete game. What’s the big deal?”

The story of the postseason so far has been the starting pitching. Amazing. Let’s take a look at how the Dodgers’ starters have done:

NL wild-card series vs. Reds

Game 1: Blake Snell, 7 IP, 4 hits, 2 ER, 1 walk, 9 K’s, Dodgers win 10-5
Game 2: Yoshinobu Yamamoto, 6.2 IP, 4 hits, 0 ER, 2 walks, 9 K’s, Dodgers win 8-4

NLDS vs. Phillies

Game 1: Shohei Ohtani, 6 IP, 3 hits, 3 ER, 1 walk, 9 K’s, Dodgers win 5-3
Game 2: Blake Snell, 6 IP, 1 hit, 0 ER, 4 walks, 9 K’s, Dodgers win, 4-3
Game 3: Yoshinobu Yamamoto, 4 IP, 6 hits, 3 ER, 1 walk, 2 K’s, Dodgers lose, 8-2
Game 4: Tyler Glasnow, 6 IP, 2 hits, 0 ER, 3 walks, 8 K’s, Dodgers win, 2-1

NLCS vs. Brewers

Game 1: Blake Snell, 8 IP, 1 hit, 0 ER, 0 walks, 10 K’s, Dodgers win, 2-1
Game 2: Yoshinobu Yamamoto, 9 IP, 3 hits, 1 ER, 1 walk, 7 K’s, Dodgers win, 5-1

In eight games, starting pitchers have thrown 52.2 innings, giving up 24 hits and 13 walks while striking out 63 and posting a 1.54 ERA.

—It’s as if suddenly Sandy Koufax and Don Drysdale are taking turns on the mound again. Of course, they always did it in the World Series, as there were no other rounds back then.

—In the 1963 World Series (a four-game sweep of the Yankees), Koufax, Drysdale and Johnny Podres combined to pitch 35.1 innings, giving up 21 hits and five walks while striking out 36 and posting a 1.02 ERA

—In the 1965 World Series, won in seven games against Minnesota, Koufax, Drysdale and Claude Osteen combined to pitch 49.2 innings, giving up 34 hits and 13 walks while striking out 48 and posting a 1.27 ERA.

—Pedro Martinez (can you believe he didn’t choose to wear a Dodger cap on his Hall of Fame plaque) had this to say on X about Snell: “I’ve been part of many postseason games, and I’ve done some great things, but in my career I haven’t seen someone do the amount of things he’s done. It gave me goosebumps to watch him. I think we can all learn from him. He deserves a lot of credit and respect.”

—That leadoff home run in Game 2 seemed to anger Yamamoto.

—Proving himself to be the master of the understatement, Yamamoto said this after the game: “I was able to pitch until the end. So I really felt a sense of accomplishment.”

—This has been like watching old-school baseball. Starting pitchers going deep into games. Dodgers bunting on occasion. Not every run coming on a home run. What is happening?

—Whatever it is, I like it.

—Let’s unpack that crazy Game 1 play. Bases loaded, one out, Max Muncy at the plate. He lifts a fly ball to deep center. Brewers center fielder Sal Frelick leaps, and the ball bounces off his glove and hits the fence on the yellow line before Frelick corrals it again. OK, let’s stop there:

In Milwaukee, the yellow line does not signify a home run. If a ball hits the yellow line, it means ball is in play. Visiting teams are reminded of this rule when they visit Milwaukee.

The left-field umpire immediately signals no catch, ball is in play. Unfortunately, it appears the only person paying attention to him is Brewers catcher William Contreras (also the only person on the field who is naturally facing the outfield to see all of this.)

As far as tagging up on a catch, the rule is you can run as soon as the ball hits the glove. Teoscar Hernández tagged up, started to run, saw the bobble, ran back, tagged up again, and by the time he made it home, the throw had beaten him. Because it wasn’t a catch and the bases were loaded, it was a force play at any base. Contreras, knowing it was a force play, didn’t even try to tag Hernández. He then ran to third to force Will Smith there. Smith, thinking the ball had been caught, had run back to second and told Tommy Edman, who had advanced to second, to go back to first. In the meantime, while Edman was doing that, Muncy passed him on the basepath. So really, the Brewers could have had a triple play, or even a quadruple play if such a thing were possible.

Third base coach Dino Ebel says he told Hernández to go. Hernández took full blame for the baserunning mistake the next day.

Hernández : “I just f— up. It’s that simple. It was one of those plays that if you would have asked me two days ago what would you do in this situation, I would say, as soon as the ball touched the glove, I would go. But in the moment, I got blocked, I think, and there’s not an explanation. I saw it when the ball hit the glove, I went. Then I saw it bounced off the glove. And I just reacted bad. Just one of those moments, you block your mind. But there’s nobody to blame but myself. And it happens.”

Smith also messed up by running back to second and telling Edman to run back to first. It was extremely loud in Milwaukee’s stadium, so apparently no one could hear Ebel.

Everyone on the field seemed confused (except Contreras). Both managers seemed confused at that moment. The TBS announcing crew was confused. People on social media were confused. We finally found something to unite us all: Confusion. It was crazy.

—In some years, the Dodgers would have fallen apart after that and lost the game.

—And then Snell marched out after that deflating half inning and mowed down the Brewers, 1-2-3 in the next half-inning. That’s what aces do.

—Who among you was screaming “Nooooooooooooooooooo!” when Blake Treinen came into Game 1? Roki Sasaki didn’t have it that night. But somehow Treinen got out of it.

—It seemed to make Dave Roberts think twice about pulling Yamamoto in Game 2 though.

—The offense isn’t quite clicking, but they are doing just enough to win. Baserunning gaffe aside, Teoscar continues to come up big in the postseason. As does Super Kiké.

—Now the baton passes back to Tyler Glasnow for Game 3.

—The last Dodger to pitch a postseason complete game was José Lima in 2004, when he shut out the Cardinals on five hits in Game 3 of the NLDS. It was the team’s first postseason win since Game 5 of the 1988 World Series. It was his only season with the Dodgers. He went 13-5 with a 4.07 ERA. His final season in the majors was 2006. He died of a heart attack in 2010. He was 37.

—To think, the Dodgers are doing this with basically a three-man bullpen.

—In Game 2, Muncy hit his 14th postseason home run, setting the all-time Dodgers record. It’s a little misleading, since guys such as Duke Snider only got one round of postseason play, and guys such as Steve Garvey usually got only two. But it’s still a nice accomplishment.

The most postseason homers in Dodger history:

14
Max Muncy (one every 16.1 at bats)

13
Corey Seager (17.9)
Justin Turner (24.2)

11
Duke Snider (12.1)

10
Steve Garvey (18.2)
Kiké Hernández (21)

9
Cody Bellinger (26.9)
Joc Pederson (16.8)
Chris Taylor (25.2)

—The Dodgers seem to have another gear they have shifted into this postseason, while the other teams don’t have that extra gear as of yet.

—The Dodgers have gone 22-6 in their last 28 games.

—But this series is far from over.

Dodgers in the postseason

How the Dodgers are doing this postseason:

Batters

Alex Call, .750 (3 for 4), 2 walks
Ben Rortvedt, .429 (3 for 7), 1 double, 1 RBI, 3 K’s
Kiké Hernández, .379 (11 for 29), 4 doubles, 4 RBIs, 4 walks, 7 K’s
Miguel Rojas, .375 (3 for 8), 1 RBI
Mookie Betts, .303 (10 for 33), 3 doubles, 1 triple, 5 RBIs, 4 walks, 2 K’s
Tommy Edman, .296 (8 for 27), 1 double, 2 homers, 4 RBIs, 1 walk, 7 K’s
Teoscar Hernández, .295 (10 for 34), 1 double, 4 homers, 10 RBIs, 2 walks, 7 K’s
Max Muncy, .273 (6 for 22), 1 double, 1 homer, 1 RBI, 6 walks, 5 K’s
Freddie Freeman, .242 (8 for 33), 4 doubles, 1 homer, 1 RBI, 3 walks, 8 K’s
Will Smith, .238 (5 for 21), 2 RBIs, 2 walks, 7 K’s
Shohei Ohtani, .147 (5 for 34), 2 homers, 6 RBIs, 6 walks, 15 K’s
Andy Pages, .069 (2 for 29), 1 double, 1 RBI, 6 K’s
Dalton Rushing, .000 (0 for 1), 1 K

Note: Justin Dean has been in eight games but has not batted (he has scored one run); Hyeseong Kim has been in one game, has not batted and has scored a run

Pitching

Tyler Glasnow, 0.00 ERA, 7.2 IP, 4 hits, 5 walks, 10 K’s
Jack Dreyer, 0.00 ERA, 1.2 IP, 2 walks, 1 K
Anthony Banda, 0.00 ERA, 1 IP, 1 walk, 2 K’s
Blake Snell, 3-0, 0.86 ERA, 21 IP, 6 hits, 2 ER, 5 walks, 28 K’s
Roki Sasaki, 1.50 ERA, 2 saves, 6 IP, 2 hits, 1 ER, 1 walks, 5 K’s
Yoshinobu Yamamoto, 2-1, 1.83 ERA, 19.2 IP, 13 hits, 4 ER, 4 walks, 18 K’s
Shohei Ohtani, 1-0, 4.50 ERA, 6 IP, 3 hits, 3 ER, 1 walk, 9 K’s
Alex Vesia, 1-0, 6.00 ERA, 3 IP, 2 hits, 2 ER, 3 walks, 3 K’s
Blake Treinen, 6.75 ERA, 1 save, 2.2 IP, 4 hits, 2 ER, 1 walk, 3 K’s
Emmet Sheehan, 10.80 ERA, 3.1 IP, 6 hits, 4 ER, 2 walks, 2 K’s
Clayton Kershaw, 18.00 ERA, 2 IP, 6 hits, 4 ER, 3 walks, 1 K
Edgardo Henriquez, infinity, 0 IP, 1 hit, 1 ER, 2 walks

Poll results

What will be the outcome of the NLCS (poll closed one minute before the first pitch of Game 1)?

After 11,709 votes:

Dodgers in six, 43.3%
Dodgers in five, 25.6%
Dodgers in seven, 19.6%
Brewers in six, 4.7%
Brewers in seven, 3.2%
Dodgers in four, 1.8%
Brewers in five, 1.3%
Brewers in four, 0.5%

Up next

Game 1: Dodgers 2, at Milwaukee 1 (box score)
Game 2: Dodgers 5, at Milwaukee 1 (box score)

Thursday: Milwaukee at Dodgers (Tyler Glasnow, 4-3, 3.19 ERA), 3 p.m., TBS, truTV, HBO Max, AM 570, KTMZ 1220, ESPN radio

Friday: Milwaukee at Dodgers (Shohei Ohtani, 1-1, 2.87 ERA), 5:30 p.m., TBS, truTV, HBO Max, AM 570, KTMZ 1220, ESPN radio

x-Saturday: Milwaukee at Dodgers, 5 p.m., TBS, truTV, HBO Max, AM 570, KTMZ 1220, ESPN radio

x-Monday: Dodgers at Milwaukee, 2 p.m., TBS, truTV, HBO Max, AM 570, KTMZ 1220, ESPN radio

x-Tuesday: Dodgers at Milwaukee, 5 p.m., TBS, truTV, HBO Max, AM 570, KTMZ 1220, ESPN radio

x-if necessary

In case you missed it

Shohei Ohtani takes rare on-field BP amid playoff slump, downplays impact of two-way role

Shaikin: Dodgers starting pitchers proving to be the ultimate opposing crowd silencers

In this postseason, Dodgers’ offense starts from the bottom

Yoshinobu Yamamoto throws a complete game to NLCS Game 2 | Dodgers Debate

Hernández: The Dodgers’ latest starting-pitching flex? Make the bullpen a non-factor

Just how much are the Dodgers charging for World Series tickets?

Kiké Hernández and Will Smith talk NLCS Game 2 win, Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s big night

Shaikin: Blake Snell replicating what Sandy Koufax achieved 60 Octobers ago

It took some luck, but good things finally happen to Dodgers’ Blake Treinen

Dodgers’ Teoscar Hernández avoids Milwaukee’s allegedly haunted hotel at wife’s insistence

And finally

Highlights from Game 1 of the NLCS. Watch and listen here. Highlights from Game 2. Watch and listen here.

Until next time…

Have a comment or something you’d like to see in a future Dodgers newsletter? Email me at [email protected]. To get this newsletter in your inbox, click here.

MILWAUKEE — First things first: The fans in an outdoor stadium in Philadelphia are louder than the fans in an indoor stadium in Milwaukee. No contest.

They are respectful and truly nice here. They booed Shohei Ohtani, but half-heartedly, almost out of obligation. In Philadelphia, they booed Ohtani relentlessly, and with hostility.

Here’s the thing, though: It didn’t matter, because the Dodgers have silenced the enemy crowd wherever they go this October. The Dodgers are undefeated on the road in this postseason: 2-0 in Philadelphia, and now 2-0 in Milwaukee.

The Dodgers have deployed four silencers. In dramatic lore they are known as famine, pestilence, destruction and death. These are only aliases. Their real names are Snell, Yamamoto, Glasnow and Ohtani.

“It’s amazing,” Tyler Glasnow said. “It’s like a show every time you’re out there.”

The Dodgers won the World Series last year with home runs and bullpen games and New York Yankees foibles, but not with starting pitching. In 16 games last October, the Dodgers had more bullpen games (four) than quality starts (two), and the starters posted a 5.25 earned-run average.

In eight games this October, the Dodgers have seven quality starts, and not coincidentally they are 7-1. The starters have posted a 1.54 ERA, the lowest of any team in National League history to play at least eight postseason games.

“Our starting pitching this entire postseason has been incredible,” said Andrew Friedman, Dodgers president of baseball operations. “We knew it would be a strength, but this is beyond what we could have reasonably expected.

“There are a lot of different ways to win in the postseason, but this is certainly a better-quality-of-life way to do it.”

The elders of the sport say that momentum is the next day’s starting pitcher. In a sport in which most teams struggle to identify even one ace, the Dodgers boast four.

In the past three games — the clincher against the Phillies and the two here against the Brewers — the Dodgers have not even trailed for a full inning.

In the division series clincher, the Phillies scored one run in the top of an inning, but the Dodgers scored in the bottom of the inning.

On Monday, the Brewers never led. On Tuesday, the Brewers had a leadoff home run in the bottom of the first, but the Dodgers scored twice in the top of the second.

On Monday, as Blake Snell spun eight shutout innings, the Brewers went 0 for 1 with men in scoring position — and that at-bat was the last out of the game. On Tuesday, as Yoshinobu Yamamoto pitched a complete game, the Brewers did not get a runner into scoring position.

That is momentum. That is also how you shut up an opposing crowd: limit the momentum for their team.

Dodgers pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto delivers against the Brewers in the fifth inning Tuesday.

(Robert Gauthier / Los Angeles Times)

“I do think, with what we’ve done in Philly and in coming here, it doesn’t seem like there is much momentum,” Glasnow said.

Of the four aces, Glasnow and Ohtani were not available to pitch last fall as they rehabilitated injuries, and Snell was pitching for the San Francisco Giants.

In the 2021 NLCS, the Dodgers started Walker Buehler twice and Julio Urías, Max Scherzer and openers Joe Kelly and Corey Knebel once each. Scherzer could not make his second scheduled start because of injury.

Said infielder-outfielder Kiké Hernández: “We’ve had some really good starting pitchers in the past, but at some point we’ve hit a roadblock through the postseason. To be this consistent for seven, eight games now, it’s been pretty impressive. In a way, it’s made things a little easier on the lineup.”

In the wild-card round, the Dodgers scored 18 runs in two games against the Cincinnati Reds. Since then, they have 20 runs in six games.

“We said before this postseason started, our starting pitching was going to be what carried us,” third baseman Max Muncy said. “And so far, it’s been exactly that.”

The starters started their roll in the final weeks of the regular season — their ERA is 1.49 over the past 30 games — not that Hernández much cared about that now.

“Regular season doesn’t matter,” he said. “We can win 300 games in the regular season.

“If we don’t win the World Series, it doesn’t matter.”

The Dodgers are two wins from a return trip to the World Series. If they can get those two wins within the next three games, they won’t have to return to Milwaukee, the land of the great sausage race, and of the polka dancers atop the dugout.

There may not be another game here this season. They are kind and spirited fans, even if they are not nearly as loud as the Philly Phanatics.

“That,” Glasnow said, “is the loudest place I’ve ever been.”

WASHINGTON — President Trump said Friday that he’s placing an additional 100% tax on Chinese imports starting on Nov. 1 or sooner, potentially escalating tariff rates close to levels that in April fanned fears of a steep recession and financial market chaos.

The president said on his social media site that he is imposing these new tariffs because of export controls placed on rare earth elements by China. The new tariffs built on an earlier post Friday on Truth Social in which Trump said that “there seems to be no reason” to meet with Chinese leader Xi Jinping as part of an upcoming trip to South Korea.

Trump said that “starting November 1st, 2025 (or sooner, depending on any further actions or changes taken by China), the United States of America will impose a Tariff of 100% on China, over and above any Tariff that they are currently paying.”

The announcement after financial markets closed on Friday risked throwing the global economy into turmoil. Not only would the global trade war instigated by Trump be rekindled at dangerous levels, but import taxes being heaped on top of the 30% already being levied on Chinese goods could, by the administration’s past statements, cause trade to break down between the U.S. and China.

While Trump’s wording was definitive, he is also famously known for backing down from threats, such that some investors began engaging in what The Financial Times called the “TACO” trade, which stands for “Trump Always Chickens Out.” The prospect of tariffs this large could compound the president’s own political worries inside the U.S., potentially pushing up inflation at a moment when the job market appears fragile and the drags from a government shutdown are starting to compound into layoffs of federal workers.

The president also said that the U.S. government would respond to China by putting its own export controls “on any and all critical software” from American firms.

It’s possible that this could amount to either posturing by the United States for eventual negotiations or a retaliatory step that could foster new fears about the stability of the global economy.

The United States and China have been jostling for advantage in trade talks, after the import taxes announced earlier this year triggered a trade war between the world’s two largest economies. Both nations agreed to ratchet down tariffs after negotiations in Switzerland and the United Kingdom, yet tensions remain as China has continued to restrict America’s access to the difficult-to-mine rare earths needed for a wide array of U.S. technologies.

Trump did not formally cancel the meeting with Xi, so much as indicating that it might not happen as part of a trip at the end of the month in Asia. The trip was scheduled to include a stop in Malaysia, which is hosting the Association of Southeast Asian Nations summit; a stop in Japan; and a visit to South Korea, where he was slated to meet with Xi ahead of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit.

“I was to meet President Xi in two weeks, at APEC, in South Korea, but now there seems to be no reason to do so,” Trump posted.

Trump’s threat shattered a monthslong calm on Wall Street, and the S&P 500 tumbled 2.7% on worries about the rising tensions between the world’s largest economies. It was the market’s worst day since April when the president last bandied about import taxes this high. Still, the stock market closed before the president spelled out the terms of his threat.

China’s new restrictions

On Thursday, the Chinese government restricted access to the rare earths ahead of the scheduled Trump-Xi meeting. Beijing would require foreign companies to get special approval for shipping the metallic elements abroad. It also announced permitting requirements on exports of technologies used in the mining, smelting and recycling of rare earths, adding that any export requests for products used in military goods would be rejected.

Trump said that China is “becoming very hostile” and that it’s holding the world “captive” by restricting access to the metals and magnets used in electronics, computer chips, lasers, jet engines and other technologies.

The Chinese Embassy in Washington did not immediately respond to an Associated Press request for comment.

Sun Yun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center, said Beijing reacted to U.S. sanctions of Chinese companies this week and the upcoming port fees targeting China-related vessels but said there’s room for deescalation to keep the leaders’ meeting alive. “It is a disproportional reaction,” Sun said. “Beijing feels that deescalation will have to be mutual as well. There is room for maneuver, especially on the implementation.”

The U.S. president said the move on rare earths was “especially inappropriate” given the announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza so that the remaining hostages from Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023, attack can be released. He raised the possibility without evidence that China was trying to steal the moment from him for his role in the ceasefire, saying on social media, “I wonder if that timing was coincidental?”

There is already a backlog of export license applications from Beijing’s previous round of export controls on rare earth elements, and the latest announcements “add further complexity to the global supply chain of rare earth elements,” the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China said in a statement.

Gracelin Baskaran, director of the Critical Minerals Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C., said China signaled it is open to negotiations, but it also holds leverage because to dominates the market for rare earths with 70% of the mining and 93% of the production of permanent magnets made from them that are crucial to high-tech products and the military.

“These restrictions undermine our ability to develop our industrial base at a time when we need to. And then second, it’s a powerful negotiating tool,” she said. And these restrictions can hurt efforts to strengthen the U.S. military in the midst of global tensions because rare earths are needed.

Trump’s trade war

The outbreak of a tariff-fueled trade war between the U.S. and China initially caused the world economy to shudder over the possibility of global commerce collapsing. Trump imposed tariffs totaling 145% on Chinese goods, with China responding with import taxes of 125% on American products.

The taxes were so high as to effectively be a blockade on trade between the countries. That led to negotiations that reduced the tariff charged by the U.S. government to 30% and the rate imposed by China to 10% so that further talks could take place. The relief those lower rates provided could now disappear with the new import taxes Trump threatened, likely raising the stakes not only of whether Trump and Xi meet but how any disputes are resolved.

Differences continue over America’s access to rare earths from China, U.S. restrictions on China’s ability to import advanced computer chips, sales of American-grown soybeans and a series of tit-for-tat port fees being levied by both countries starting on Tuesday.

Nebraska Republican Rep. Don Bacon said “China has not been a fair-trade partner for years,” but the Trump administration should have anticipated China’s restrictions on rare earths and refusal to buy American soybeans in response to the tariffs.

How analysts see moves by U.S. and China

Wendy Cutler, senior vice president of the Asia Society Policy Institute, said Trump’s post shows the fragility of the détente between the two countries and it’s unclear whether the two sides are willing to de-escalate to save the bilateral meeting.

Cole McFaul, a research fellow at Georgetown University’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology, said that Trump appeared in his post to be readying for talks on the possibility that China had overplayed its hand. By contrast, China sees itself as having come out ahead when the two countries have engaged in talks.

“From Beijing’s point of view, they’re in a moment where they’re feeling a lot of confidence about their ability to handle the Trump administration,” McFaul said. “Their impression is they’ve come to the negotiating table and extracted key concessions.”

Craig Singleton, senior director of the China program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a think tank, said Trump’s post could “mark the beginning of the end of the tariff truce” that had lowered the tax rates charged by both countries.

It’s still unclear how Trump intends to follow through on his threats and how China plans to respond.

“But the risk is clear: Mutually assured disruption between the two sides is no longer a metaphor,” Singleton said. “Both sides are reaching for their economic weapons at the same time, and neither seems willing to back down.”

Boak and Tang write for the Associated Press. AP writers Stan Choe in New York and Josh Funk in Omaha, Neb., contributed to the report.