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There’s something about December that seems to charm equity markets into a year-end flourish.

For decades, investors have noted how the final month of the calendar tends to bring tidings of green screens and positive returns, fuelling what has become known as the Santa Claus rally.

But behind the festive metaphor lies a consistent, data-backed pattern.

Over the past four decades, the S&P 500 has gained in December about 74% of the time, with an average monthly return of 1.44% –– second only to November.

This seasonal cheer is echoed across European markets, with some indices showing even stronger performances.

Since its inception in 1987, the EURO STOXX 50, the region’s blue-chip benchmark, has posted an average December gain of 1.87%. That makes the Christmas period the second-best month of the year after November’s 1.95%.

More striking, however, is its winning frequency. December closes in positive territory 71% of the time — higher than any other month.

The best December for the index came in 1999, when it surged 13.68%, while the worst was in 2002, when it fell 10.2%.

Rally gathers steam in late December

Zooming in on country-level indices further reinforces the seasonal trend.

The DAX, Germany’s flagship index, has shown an average December return of 2.18% over the past 40 years, trailing only April’s 2.43%. It finishes the month higher 73% of the time, again tying with April for the best track record.

France’s CAC 40 follows a similar pattern, gaining on average 1.57% in December with a 70% win rate, also ranking it among the top three months.

Spain’s IBEX 35 and Italy’s FTSE MIB are more moderate but still show consistent strength, with December gains of 1.12% and 1.13% respectively.

But the magic of December doesn’t usually kick off at the start of the month. Instead, the real momentum tends to build in the second half.

According to data from Seasonax, the EURO STOXX 50 posts a 2.12% average return from 15 December through year-end, rising 76% of the time.

The DAX performs similarly, gaining 1.87% on average with a 73% win rate, while the CAC 40 shows even stronger second-half returns of 1.95%, ending positive in 79% of cases.

What’s behind the rally? It’s not just Christmas spirit

So what exactly drives this December seasonal phenomenon? Part of the answer lies in fund managers’ behaviour.

Christoph Geyer, an analyst at Seasonax, believes the rally is closely tied to the behaviour of institutional investors. As the year draws to a close, many fund managers make final portfolio adjustments to lock in performance figures that will be reported to clients and shareholders.

This so-called “price maintenance” often leads to increased buying, especially of stocks that have already done well or are poised to benefit from short-term momentum.

This behavioural pattern gains importance in years when indices such as the DAX trade within a sideways range — as has been the case since May this year. A sideways market is one where asset prices fluctuate within a tight range, lacking a clear trend.

According to Geyer, a breakout from this sideways range for the DAX appears increasingly likely as December kicks in.

From mid-November to early January, historical patterns suggest a favourable outcome, with a ratio of 34 positive years versus 12 negative for the German index — and average gains exceeding 6% in the positive years.

While past performance does not guarantee future returns, December’s track record across major global and European indices provides a compelling narrative for investors.

In short, December’s strength is not just about festive optimism. It’s a convergence of seasonal statistics, institutional dynamics, and technical positioning.

Disclaimer: This information does not constitute financial advice, always do your own research to ensure investments are right for your specific circumstances. We are a journalistic website and aim to provide the best guidance from experts. If you rely on the information on this page, then you do so entirely at your own risk.

Up to 8,000 people across North Sumatra have been evacuated and roads remain blocked by landslide debris.

Floods and landslides brought about by torrential rain in Indonesia’s North Sumatra province have killed at least 34 people, authorities said, with rescue efforts hampered by what an official described as a “total cutoff” of roads and communications.

North Sumatra regional police spokesman Ferry Walintukan told Detik news website that aside from the confirmed deaths, at least 52 people remain missing as of Thursday.

A rare tropical cyclone blew across Indonesia’s Sumatra island, inundating the nearby Malacca Strait and causing floods and landslides, the country’s meteorological agency said on Wednesday, as large swaths of Southeast Asia grappled with deadly flooding.

Up to 8,000 people across North Sumatra have been evacuated, and roads remain blocked by landslide debris, with aid now being distributed via helicopters, Abdul Muhari, spokesperson for the country’s disaster mitigation agency, said on Thursday.

The regions of Sibolga and Central Tapanuli were among the hardest hit, Yuyun Karseno, an official at the agency’s North Sumatra division, told the Reuters news agency, adding that communications and power had been cut off.

“There is no more access, due to a total cutoff,” Yuyun said when asked about the rescue efforts. “Until now, we can’t communicate with folks in Sibolga and Central Tapanuli.”

Among the dead were one family in Central Tapanuli, Indonesia’s search and rescue agency said.

A video shared by radio channel Elshinta on its social media account showed a person carrying a baby in a plastic container on a roof in Central Tapanuli.

Footage and photos shared by the agency show rapid currents of water overflowing across the region, leaving buildings destroyed in their wake, with rescuers using orange rafts to visit the flooded homes of residents.

Flooding and landslides also affected the provinces of West Sumatra and Aceh, authorities said. Indonesia’s official news agency Antara reported that 10 of the 23 cities and districts in Aceh have been submerged.

More flooding is expected in several other Sumatran provinces, including Aceh and Riau, over the next two days, the meteorological agency said, citing extreme weather.

Flooding elsewhere in Asia

The Indonesian flooding is one of a series of disasters to hit Southeast Asia this week.

On Thursday morning, a magnitude 6.6 earthquake hit the island of Simeulue off the coast of Sumatra in western Indonesia, according to the United States Geological Survey.

The quake, which struck Simeulue Island at 11:56am (04:56 GMT) at a depth of 25km (15.5 miles), prompted rain-soaked residents to rush outside. There were no immediate reports on casualties or a possible tsunami.

Meanwhile, more than 30 people were killed by floods in Thailand and Malaysia in recent days, with water levels high enough to submerge hospitals.

In Sri Lanka, floods and landslides triggered by heavy rains killed at least 31 people this week, with 14 others missing, authorities said on Thursday.

A record number of families in England were fined in the last school year for unauthorised holidays

Parents considering taking their children on holiday during term time have been cautioned that it could prove more costly than expected. A record number of families in England were fined during the last academic year for unauthorised absences.

Over the past school year, more than 443,000 fines were handed out to parents who removed their children from school during term time for holidays, marking a 53 per cent rise compared to pre-Covid levels. Many families point to the exceptionally high prices of breaks during official school holidays, especially for trips abroad.

Attitudes towards school attendance are also believed to have relaxed following the Covid-19 pandemic. Before the outbreak, local authorities issued just 288,000 penalty notices in the 2018/19 academic year, reports Bristol Live.

The escalating issue was discussed in Parliament in October this year. However, with some councils increasing penalties for non-attendance, Alvaro Iturmendi, travel insurance expert at Confused.com, cautioned that the true cost to parents could exceed initial expectations.

“For many families, taking a term-time holiday can seem like an appealing way to cut costs. Our research found that parents or guardians say they saved £567 on average, especially as prices often surge during peak school breaks.”

“That’s as our research also found that UK parents and guardians were issued £41 million in fines for term-time holidays between 2022 and 2024 by local councils. Fines are typically issued per child, per parent, and what might start as an £80 fine can quickly rise to £160 for a two-parent household in England, with costs multiplying further for families with more than one child.

“Over half (56%) of parents and guardians said the main reason they take the risk and travel during term time is because it’s cheaper outside of school holidays. While a third (33%) of parents believe that travel is just as important as formal education, and 14% admitted they booked before realising the school term dates.

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“However, if term-time travel becomes a regular occurrence, councils have the power to take legal action. That’s why we created a school fines calculator to help parents get clarity on the potential costs and local authority rules before making any decisions. Regardless of when you travel, family holidays can be very expensive, and for families facing fines it’s one more cost added on top of an already pricey getaway.”

Studies indicate families are forking out nearly £400 extra per person on getaways taken during school time. This has led Paul Whiteman – general secretary of the National Association of Head Teachers – to conclude that penalties are failing to discourage parents.

“For many families the threat of a fine is not acting as a significant deterrent in the way the government hoped it would. This is largely due to the exorbitant charges for holidays outside of term time,” Whiteman said. “We have long-argued that fines are a blunt tool for tackling this issue and the data appears to bear this out once again.”