soar

Russian president spoke as oil prices surged past $100 per barrel, reaching levels unseen since start of Ukraine war.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has said that Russia is ready to conditionally supply oil and gas to Europe as the US-Israeli war on Iran brings shipments through the Strait of Hormuz to a halt.

The Russian president said in televised comments on Monday that Moscow was ready to work again with European customers, which largely stopped buying from his country in a bid to stop funding its war on Ukraine, if they wanted to return to long-term cooperation.

European countries, however, have spent the past four years sharply reducing their reliance on Russian oil and gas in response to Moscow’s war in Ukraine and subsequent European Union and Group of Seven (G7) sanctions.

The EU banned maritime imports of Russian crude in 2022, while Russia’s pipeline exports to Hungary and Slovakia have been effectively halted since January due to damage to the Druzhba oil pipeline via Ukraine.

“If European companies and European buyers suddenly decide to reorient themselves and provide us with long-term, sustainable cooperation, free from political pressures, free from political pressures, then yes, we’ve never refused it. We’re ready to work with Europeans too,” said Putin at a meeting with government officials and heads of Russia’s top oil and gas producers.

He said that Russian companies should take advantage of conflict in the Middle East, which has seen Iran effectively halt shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s key oil transit chokepoints that carries roughly a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas.

The Russian president spoke as oil prices exceeded $100 per barrel on Monday, reaching peaks unseen since he launched his country’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Brent crude, the international benchmark, rose by more than 30 percent on Sunday, at one point topping $119 a barrel, as fears grew of prolonged disruption to global energy supplies.

G7 nations said on Monday that they were prepared to implement “necessary measures” in response to surging global oil prices, but stopped short of committing to release emergency reserves.

Putin’s comments came hours after Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban urged the European Union to suspend sanctions on Russian oil and gas to counter prices sent soaring by the war in the Middle East.

Last week, Putin had instructed the government to consider switching remaining Russian oil and gas flows away from Europe, before the European Union starts enforcing its decision to completely ban Russian fossil fuels.

Before the Ukraine war, Europe was buying more than 40 percent of its gas from Russia. By 2025, combined sales of pipeline gas and LNG from Russia accounted for only 13 percent of total EU imports.

The loss of the European market during the Ukraine war forced Russia to sell oil and gas at steep discounts to Asia.

European stock markets were all in negative territory on Monday morning after weak sentiment in Asian markets, where Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 index plunged more than 5% and Taiwan’s benchmark fell 4.4%.

ADVERTISEMENT

ADVERTISEMENT

Other Asian markets also tumbled after oil prices soared to nearly $120 a barrel, casting a shadow over economies heavily dependent on imported crude and gas from the region.

In Europe, London’s FTSE 100 was down 1.6%, while Frankfurt’s DAX, Paris’s CAC 40 and Milan’s FTSE MIB were all down more than 2.4%, as of 09:30 CET. Madrid’s IBEX 35 fell nearly 2.7%, and the pan-European Stoxx 600 lost about 2%.

While rising oil and gas prices are threatening Europe’s economic outlook this year, trading sentiment was further impacted on Monday by worse-than-expected data from Germany.

German industrial production and factory orders both fell at the start of the year. Output decreased by 0.5% in January following a revised 1% decline the previous month, the statistics office said on Monday.

Meanwhile, investor expectations are rising that the European Central Bank could raise benchmark interest rates this year, as soaring energy prices fuel fears that inflation may surge.

The panic in the stock market unfolded as oil prices became the main focus for investors.

Oil prices soaring

Oil prices rocketed higher as both sides in the Iran conflict struck new targets over the weekend, including civilian infrastructure. The war, now in its second week, involves regions critical to the production and transport of oil and gas from the Persian Gulf.

Prices moderated after the Financial Times reported that some members of the Group of Seven (G7) were considering releasing strategic oil reserves to ease pressure on markets. The unconfirmed report cited unnamed sources familiar with the discussions.

Oil prices spiked near $120 per barrel before falling back on Monday as the conflict intensified, threatening production and shipping in the Middle East and rattling global financial markets.

The price for a barrel of Brent crude, the international benchmark, surged to $119.50 early in the day but later traded around $107.80.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US benchmark, spiked to $119.48 per barrel but fell back to around $103 by the European market open.

Strikes on Iranian oil facilities risk increasing pressure on an already tight global energy market, analysts warned. Lindsay James, investment strategist at Quilter, said “Iran accounts for roughly 4% of global oil supply, and around 90% of its exports are directed to China.”

The world’s second-largest economy has vast reserves, but analysts say any prolonged damage to Iran’s export capacity could weigh on its economic recovery and eventually affect global markets.

James also warned that attacks on shipping and energy infrastructure in the Gulf risk escalating tensions and unsettling markets that had initially expected the conflict to be resolved quickly.

After disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz linked to the conflict, the European gas market is also under pressure. Natural gas futures jumped more than 14% on Monday to above €61 per megawatt-hour, nearing their highest level in three years and extending last week’s 67% surge.

Several major producers in the region have cut back output, and Qatar’s Ras Laffan facility — the world’s largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant — was shut down last week.

Russia has also warned it could halt natural gas exports to Europe, adding to market anxiety.

At the same time, Europe’s gas reserves remain low, with EU storage levels below 30% and requiring refilling.

Early Monday, the US dollar, which retains its status as a safe-haven asset, gained against other major currencies. It was trading at 158.46 Japanese yen, up from 158.09 late Friday. The euro rose slightly to $1.1558 from $1.1556.

In other trading, gold prices were down more than 1% on Monday morning in Europe, trading around $5,100, while cryptocurrencies were mostly higher. One bitcoin traded at $67,774, up 0.7%.

IMF: ‘Think of the unthinkable and prepare for it’

As fears grow over how long the war could last — and with Asian markets, often seen as engines of global growth, under heavy pressure — International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warned that policymakers must prepare for the “unthinkable.”

“If the new conflict proves prolonged, it has clear and obvious potential to affect market sentiment, growth, and inflation, placing new demands on policymakers,” Georgieva said in a keynote speech at a symposium in Tokyo on Monday.

She reminded her audience that, as a rule of thumb, every 10% increase in oil prices — if sustained through most of the year — could raise global headline inflation by about 40 basis points and reduce global output by 0.1–0.2%.

“And if, as we all hope, the conflict ends soon, then be sure that, before long, some new shock will come. My advice to policymakers everywhere in this new global environment? Think of the unthinkable and prepare for it,” she added.

Qatar’s state-run energy firm says it has halted liquefied natural gas production after Iranian attacks, sending gas prices soaring in Europe, as Saudi Arabia announced it was temporarily shutting down some units of the Ras Tanura oil refinery located near the country’s eastern region after a fire broke out following a drone attack.

“Due to military attacks on QatarEnergy’s operating facilities in Ras Laffan Industrial City and Mesaieed Industrial City in the State of Qatar, QatarEnergy has ceased production of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and associated products,” the world’s largest LNG producer said in a statement on Monday.

Shortly after the announcement, natural gas prices in Europe soared by almost 50 percent.

Earlier, Qatar’s Defence Ministry said the country was attacked by two drones launched from Iran. “One drone targeted a water tank belonging to a power plant in Mesaieed, and the other targeted an energy facility in Ras Laffan Industrial City, belonging to QatarEnergy, without reporting any human casualties,” it said in a statement.

“All damages and losses resulting from the attack will be assessed by the relevant authorities, and an official statement will be issued later,” it added.

The Saudi Ministry of Defence, in reports carried by the state-run Saudi Press Agency (SPA), said two drones had “attempted to attack” the Ras Tanura refinery on Monday morning, and that a “small” fire had broken out after they were intercepted.

Footage verified by Al Jazeera showed plumes of smoke rising from the oil facility, located on Saudi Arabia’s Gulf coast. The ministry said the refinery “sustained limited damage”, but there were no casualties.

Ras Tanura oil refinery, one of the world’s largest oil processing facilities located near the eastern city of Dammam, has a capacity of 550,000 barrels per day. The facility is home to one of the largest refineries in the Middle East and is considered a cornerstone of the kingdom’s energy sector.

The attacks come as oil tankers have been piling up on either side of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world’s seaborne oil and the bulk of Qatari gas flows.

The maritime disruptions and fears of a prolonged conflict have led to a sharp rise in global oil prices, which will have a significant impact on the global economy.

Iran has been launching retaliatory strikes, mainly targeting Israel and military facilities of the United States across the Middle East, after the US and Israel launched massive air strikes on the country.

In a statement published by SPA, the Saudi Ministry of Energy said some operations had been halted as a “precautionary measure” and that it did not foresee “any impact on the supply of petroleum products to local markets”.

Saudi Arabia had earlier said it would “take all necessary measures to defend its security and protect its territory, citizens, and residents, including the option of responding to the aggression” after Iran targeted the capital Riyadh and the country’s eastern region with strikes over the weekend.

The US, Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates issued a joint statement on Sunday condemning Iranian attacks across the region and affirming their right to self-defence.

Rob Geist Pinfold, lecturer in defence studies at King’s College London, told Al Jazeera that Iran “knows exactly what it’s doing” by attacking the Gulf countries.

“These countries have less of an appetite for a fight because, at the end of the day, this is not their war. So, Iran is banking that they will want a ceasefire as soon as possible, that they will be pressuring the Trump administration. But we have no signs of that whatsoever so far,” he said.

Pinfold added that there seems to be a “show of force” and “of unity” coming from the Gulf states, at least rhetorically.

“They’re trying to get the message across that they are one and that they are united and that they are resilient,” Pinfold said. “But under the surface, there are profound disagreements here about how to engage with Iran and whether to engage with Iran at all.”