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The big day for Social Security’s more than 70 million traditional beneficiaries is right around the corner. Assuming the government shutdown doesn’t delay a key data release, on Oct. 15, the Social Security Administration will unveil a multitude of changes for the upcoming year, with the highlight being the 2026 cost-of-living adjustment (COLA).

For retired-worker beneficiaries, who accounted for more than 76% of all traditional Social Security recipients in August, the income they receive from this all-important program is often vital to their financial well-being. Almost a quarter-century of annual surveys from Gallup shows that 80% to 90% of retirees lean on their monthly Social Security check to cover some aspect of their expenses.

Though retired-worker beneficiaries are less than two weeks away from knowing precisely how much they’ll receive each month in 2026, the dreaded lose-lose scenario looks to be very much on the table.

Image source: The Motley Fool

Social Security’s cost-of-living adjustment plays an important role for beneficiaries

Before digging into the nitty-gritty of what’s to come for program recipients, it’s imperative to understand why Social Security’s COLA exists.

The best way to view Social Security’s cost-of-living adjustment is as a near-annual “raise” that accounts for the effects of inflation that beneficiaries are contending with. Hypothetically, if a large basket of goods and services regularly purchased by Social Security beneficiaries increased in cost by 3% from one year to the next, Social Security payouts would also need to climb by the same percentage to avoid a loss of buying power. Social Security’s COLA is the raise that attempts to mirror the effects of rising prices (inflation).

Prior to 1975, there was no formula for calculating COLAs on an annual basis. From the very first payout in January 1940 through the end of 1974, only 11 cost-of-living adjustments were enacted by special sessions of Congress.

The near-annual COLAs we’re used to today began in 1975, which is when the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) was adopted as Social Security’s inflationary measure. The CPI-W is reported as a single figure on a monthly basis, which allows for quick year-over-year comparisons to determine if prices are, collectively, rising (inflation) or declining (deflation).

The quirk with Social Security’s COLA is that only three months of readings factor into the calculation: July, August, and September (i.e., the third quarter). If the average third-quarter CPI-W reading in the current year is higher than the comparable period of the previous year, inflation has taken place and beneficiaries are set for a higher payout. Payouts can stay the same year to year; they are not decreased, even if prices in the measured period drop.

A historic expansion of U.S. money supply sent the prevailing inflation rate and Social Security COLAs soaring. US Inflation Rate data by YCharts.

Independent Social Security COLA estimates for 2026 have been narrowed

Based on independent estimates, retired workers, workers with disabilities, and survivors of deceased workers are all in line for a boost to their monthly benefit in the new year.

Following a decade of anemic cost-of-living adjustments during the 2010s, the last four years have featured above-average COLAs. A historic expansion of U.S. money supply during the earlier days of the COVID-19 pandemic led to the highest prevailing rate of inflation in the U.S. in four decades. The result was a 5.9% COLA in 2022, followed by 8.7% in 2023, 3.2% in 2024, and 2.5% in 2025. To add some context to these payout increases, the average COLA over the previous 16 years is 2.3%.

The encouraging news (at least on paper) for Social Security recipients is that the 2026 COLA is on track to do something that hasn’t been witnessed in 29 years. For the first time since 1988 through 1997, the program’s raise is forecast to reach at least 2.5% for a fifth consecutive year. On a nominal-dollar basis, Social Security beneficiaries have seen their payouts notably increase over the last half-decade.

According to nonpartisan senior advocacy group The Senior Citizens League (TSCL), next year’s COLA is projected to come in at 2.7%. Independent Social Security and Medicare policy analyst Mary Johnson, who retired from TSCL early last year, foresees a slightly more robust payout boost of 2.8% in 2026.

If the assumption is made that one of these two forecasts proves accurate, the average monthly benefit for retired workers would climb by approximately $54 to $56 in 2026. Meanwhile, the average worker with disabilities and average survivor beneficiary would both see their monthly Social Security income rise by $43 to $44, respectively.

Image source: Getty Images.

The dreaded lose-lose scenario is looking likely for most retirees in 2026

But even though independent estimates point to a fifth straight year where Social Security’s raise will top its 16-year average, aged beneficiaries are almost certain to discover the 2026 COLA comes up short in two ways.

The first issue relates to the inherent shortcomings of the CPI-W. While near-annual COLAs are a vast improvement compared to Congress passing along raises without rhyme or reason, the CPI-W is itself far from perfect.

As its full name makes clear, the CPI-W tracks the costs “urban wage earners and clerical workers” are facing. These are typically working-age Americans not currently receiving a Social Security benefit. More importantly, urban wage earners and clerical workers spend their money differently than seniors — and adults aged 62 and over make up 87% of Social Security’s traditional beneficiaries.

Older, retired Americans spend a larger percentage of their monthly budget on shelter and medical care services than working-age folks. Not only does the CPI-W not adequately account for the higher weighting retirees place on these two spending categories, but the trailing-12-month inflation rate for shelter and medical care services has been consistently higher than the COLA passed along to program recipients.

Based on two separate studies by TSCL, the purchasing power of a Social Security dollar dropped by 36% from 2000 to 2023, and by 20% between 2010 and 2024. This loss of buying power is likely to continue in 2026.

Retirees who are dually enrolled in Social Security and traditional Medicare are also set to lose in the upcoming year.

People who are enrolled in traditional Medicare and Social Security almost always have their Medicare Part B premium automatically deducted from their monthly Social Security payout. Part B is the portion of Medicare responsible for outpatient services.

In 2023 and 2024, the Part B premium rose by 5.9% each year. But based on estimates from the June-published Medicare Trustees Report, the Part B premium is forecast to climb 11.5% to $206.20 per month in the upcoming year. There’s little doubt that this is going to partially or fully offset the impact of next year’s Social Security COLA for most dual enrollees.

Even if the cost-of-living adjustment for 2026 surpasses TSCL’s and Johnson’s respective forecasts, it won’t be enough to pull retirees out of this lose-lose scenario in 2026.

Welcome back to the Times of Troy newsletter, where the college football offseason is now fully in the rearview mirror. USC opened its preseason camp last week, and already, my arms are a deep shade of red from failure to wear sunscreen at practice.

We’re back, baby.

This is the time of year when anything is possible. (Except for me getting an even tan.) Now is the time to convince yourself of your team’s unproven quarterback. Or buy into the hype about the rebuilt defensive line. Maybe you even start to come around on that coach you said you’d never trust again.

There’s plenty of time for us to get cynical in the next several weeks. But for this week, let’s consider what a best-case scenario might look like for USC’s season.

Let’s start here: I don’t think it’s crazy to convince yourself of a world where Lincoln Riley could lead USC to the College Football Playoff.

I’m not suggesting that’s the likely outcome. (In my actual opinion, it’s not.) But since we’re wearing our cardinal-and-gold-colored glasses this morning, let’s consider what that path might look like.

It’s safe to assume that a berth in the playoff would require winning 10 games. Just one team got in with three losses last year — Clemson — and that’s only because they had an automatic bid.

USC’s two toughest games of the season, by far, are its road tilts against Notre Dame and Oregon. I have a hard time envisioning a scenario in which the Trojans escape with two wins against surefire top-10 teams on the road. Losses in both would, in turn, require USC to run the table in their other 10. That’s not easy, no matter who you are. So in any scenario that ends with USC slipping into the playoff probably starts with stealing a win in one of Eugene or South Bend.

There are plenty of other points in the road where the Trojans could still stumble. If USC can afford to lose just one other game to maintain its playoff candidacy, as last year’s field suggests, that means it must win at least three of these four games: Michigan and Iowa, at home, and Illinois and Nebraska, on the road. All four feel like coin flips, as of early August.

Not only that, but USC also can’t afford to blow any of its games against inferior conference opponents such as Purdue, Michigan State and Northwestern. That shouldn’t be a problem. But, well … you never know.

Even in a best-case scenario, it’s reasonable to expect at least one loss in that crop of seven games. But if somehow USC emerged from its second Big Ten season with a 10-2 record, USC would probably punch its first ticket to the College Football Playoff.

It’s just that simple. Right?

Well … not exactly. But we’re staying optimistic here! Which, in this 10-win scenario, means first and foremost that USC’s defense — and its defensive line in particular — will have taken a major step forward in Year 2 under D’Anton Lynn. Defensive end Kameryn Fountain and defensive tackle Devan Thompkins will have lived up to their preseason hype with All-Big Ten seasons, while Eric Gentry will lead the Big Ten in sacks before skyrocketing into the first round of the upcoming NFL draft.

It’s not that difficult to imagine, really. But that sort of leap on defense probably also means more suitors for Lynn in the offseason — either in the NFL or as a college head coach — which is a problem for another day.

The best-case scenario for USC’s offense, meanwhile, starts with a breakout season for quarterback Jayden Maiava, who, in this hypothetical, proves to be a much better fit for Riley’s offense than Miller Moss was a year ago. USC throws deep more often than ever before under Riley, establishing itself again as one of the most explosive offenses in college football. Maiava manages to limit the back-breaking mistakes that plagued him late last season and even leads a few game-winning drives in the fourth quarter.

A steady rushing attack, in this scenario, is key to keeping the pressure off of Maiava, as Riley, following an offseason of soul-searching, finally realizes the true meaning of leaning on the run. Waymond Jordan, in turn, puts together a breakout season in USC’s backfield and becomes a household name in the Big Ten, while the offensive line manages to avoid any major injuries.

None of those things feel impossible, on their own. Actually reaching that best-case scenario, however, requires a significant number of those variables tilting the Trojans’ way.

Could it happen? Of course. But with so much uncertainty, this USC season could just as easily veer in the other direction, too.

Next week, we’ll talk about what that could look like — and how low the Trojans could potentially go, if everything happens to go awry.

Three questions with … Matt Leinart

Matt Leinart with the Trojans in 2004.

(Los Angeles Times)

The Heisman-winning quarterback and FOX analyst joined me to give his thoughts on USC, on behalf of Abbott’s “We Give Blood” drive, which encourages Big Ten fans to donate.

The following conversation has been edited for length and clarity.

Question: What excites you about this USC roster? Where do you have questions?

Leinart: What excites me is — there’s always expectation at USC — but we’re flying under the radar. I don’t even think we’re in the top 25 preseason, which is fine. We made strides on defense last year with Coach Lynn. I thought he was fantastic. We’ve gotten a lot of big dudes in the portal, which we need. We needed the size up front. I’m excited to see what Jayden does with a full year and a full offseason ahead of Year 2 in Lincoln’s system. The schedule is kind of favorable, like you have some games you can win there and really make a run. To me, this year is about finishing for them. Last year they were very close in a lot of games, but close doesn’t win you football games. You’ve gotta learn how to finish, and if you can learn how to finish, that’s just a mindset. Just going out there knowing that when you go into the fourth quarter, that’s where you’re going to win the game. If they can develop that and that becomes ingrained in who you are as a team and as a player, they’re going to be pretty good. I think they’re underrated, and I think they have a chance to make a run. I really do. Now they just have to go out and prove that.

Question: What do you need to see out of Lincoln Riley in Year 4?

Leinart: Look, and I’m close with Lincoln. He knows what he needs to do. He knows what the team needs to do. He understands the frustrations that even someone like myself has as an alumni and a proud Trojan and someone who covers college football. But at the end of the day, he can’t worry about all that. I think with Lincoln, there’s always been a question: Are his teams tough enough? Are his teams physical enough? And I think that’s something they’ve really come out and attacked on both sides of the ball and with some of the coaching hires that he’s made. You don’t get a lot of time these days to build something. Look at Jim Harbaugh. It took him until Year 7 to win a national championship. There were a couple years where, gosh, we would talk on Big Noon like, ‘Should Jim Harbaugh be fired?’ And look what happened. Patience is hard to come by. That’s what I tell my kids all the time. But this is kind of the year, where he’s got to flip that script and that narrative.

Question: Who’s someone flying under the radar on this team that you expect to take a big step forward this season?

Leinart: Gosh. The receivers? Makai Lemon is one of my favorite players. I know he’s not technically under-the-radar. But like this is a breakout year for him, I think. Jayden is under the radar. I think he’s going to be fantastic. Year 2, and he showed a lot last year. And this might be a different Lincoln Riley offense, where they run the ball more and they’re more physical as he gets better. On defense, I love Anthony Lucas. I hope he steps up. And Jahkeem Stewart, the big-time freshman, I’ve heard like, ‘He’s so young, but he’s going to be a monster.’ Then there’s the couple guys we got from the SEC in the portal on the D-line. I’m excited.

—Lincoln Riley called on the NCAA to “do the right thing” with DJ Wingfield. But his case is with the courts now. Riley had refrained from saying much about the circumstances surrounding Wingfield, who’s now suing the NCAA in hopes of an injunction that would allow him to play this season. But asked about it on Friday, Riley made his frustration with the NCAA quite clear. “It isn’t right,” he said. “I haven’t seen anything like it in all my years of coaching.” He was frank about the fact that Wingfield is “not doing very good.” He’s not the only one across the country caught in a similar limbo as the NCAA tries to put its foot down on enforcing its Five-Year Rule for eligibility. To me, it feels pretty callous of the NCAA to loosen the reins after the Diego Pavia case, only to tighten them once again after the House settlement. I understand Riley’s angst with the NCAA. But the reality is the case is now with the courts. A hearing is set for Friday, and no one I’ve spoken with seems to have a good feel for what the judge might rule. If the judge grants Wingfield a temporary restraining order, he’d be ready to start practicing by the time our next newsletter drops.

—Notre Dame is willing to play the USC game early in the season. So now what? In a sitdown with reporters, Notre Dame athletic director Pete Bevacqua opened the door for at least one concession to USC in negotiations over the rivalry series. USC, at the moment, is still holding strong with the rest of the Big Ten on pushing for four automatic qualifiers to the College Football Playoff. But if that plan goes nowhere, which at this point seems likely, then I don’t see why USC and Notre Dame wouldn’t be able to iron something out to keep the series alive.

—Offensive line reinforcements are on the way in USC’s 2026 class. The rich got richer on the recruiting trail last week as USC nabbed the commitment of Breck Kolojay, a fast-rising interior line prospect from IMG Academy. That gives the Trojans seven (!!) commits on the offensive line, which would be the largest line class in recent memory at USC. That group is headlined by the nation’s top offensive tackle prospect, Keenyi Pepe, who just happens to be Kolojay’s teammate at IMG. USC already added four freshman linemen to the mix in 2025, giving the program a pretty solid foundation up front for the foreseeable future.

In case you missed it

Tobias Raymond is now a key cog — and de facto grillmaster — on uncertain USC offensive line

USC trusts new strength coach Trumain Carroll to help Trojans open and finish strong

Offensive lineman DJ Wingfield files lawsuit against NCAA in bid to play for USC

What I’m watching this week

Keri Russell as Kate Wyler, and Rufus Sewell as Hal Wyler in “The Diplomat.”

(Netflix)

I’m a little late to the party, but “The Diplomat” on Netflix has been a pleasant surprise during a slow TV summer. The main draw for me was Keri Russell, who is at her best when playing a character as prickly as possible — i.e. her phenomenal work on “The Americans.” This role, as U.S. Ambassador Kate Wyler, definitely fits that bill. The back-and-forth between her and her husband, played by Rufus Sewell, is worth the price of admission alone. But it’s the unexpected twists and turns of the story that will keep you hooked. After burning through one season in a few days, my wife and I have already dug into Season 2.

Until next time …

That concludes today’s newsletter. If you have any feedback, ideas for improvement or things you’d like to see, email me at [email protected], and follow me on Twitter at @Ryan_Kartje. To get this newsletter in your inbox, click here.