Russias

The TWZ Newsletter

Weekly insights and analysis on the latest developments in military technology, strategy, and foreign policy.

Russia has used its ground-launched 9M729 cruise missile to strike targets in Ukraine multiple times in recent months. This is the conclusion of Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha, and it also tallies with reports from independent analysts who have been tracking the use of the missile, the original deployment of which led to the United States walking away from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces, or INF, Treaty in 2019.

“Russia’s use of the INF-banned 9M729 against Ukraine in the past months demonstrates Putin’s disrespect to the United States and President Trump’s diplomatic efforts to end Russia’s war against Ukraine,” Sybiha said.

Since August, Russia has been attacking Ukraine with the 9M729 cruise missile, capable of carrying a nuclear warhead, Reuters reported, citing Ukraine’s FM Sybiha.

Moscow’s use of the missile in the past months demonstrates “Putin’s disrespect to the United States and President… pic.twitter.com/VkvGrD2NyP

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) October 31, 2025

Sybiha’s comments provide the first confirmation that Russia has used the 9M729 missile — known to NATO as the SSC-8 Screwdriver — in combat.

Another, unnamed Ukrainian senior official told Reuters that Russia had fired the 9M729 against targets in Ukraine 23 times since August 21 of this year. The same source said that the missile had been launched on two other occasions since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022; it is not immediately clear if these were also combat launches, but a combat evaluation is a strong possibility.

Notably, the Kremlin had, on August 4, said it would no longer limit where it deploys nuclear-capable missiles with ranges in excess of the former INF Treaty. That would suggest something of a change in policy, publicly at least, prior to the more regular combat employment of the 9M729.

And here is 9M729. Note that “they began [to use it] on August 21.” Russia formally announced the end of its moratorium on August 4. So, it appears that the moratorium on deployment was a thing. https://t.co/Izbqhz7uKP 1/2

— Pavel Podvig (@russianforces) October 31, 2025

According to Reuters, quoting another unnamed military source, one of the 9M729 missiles fired by Russia, on October 5 of this year, flew over 1,200 kilometers (746 miles) before hitting a target in Ukraine.

To absolutely no one’s surprise (well, probably and unfortunately to some), the 9M729 is confirmed to have a range well-above 500 kilometers.

My conservative assessment based on its technical features, which I published on Missile Matters in August, was at least 1,700… pic.twitter.com/vmyR6i6vwd

— Fabian Hoffmann (@FRHoffmann1) October 31, 2025

The range is significant, since it was this factor that the United States argued put the 9M729 in breach of the INF Treaty, which put a limit of 500 kilometers (310 miles) on ground-launched missiles, nuclear or conventional.

If the military source’s information is accurate, then it would confirm that, as expected, the 9M729 is able to fly far beyond the now-defunct INF Treaty limits.

Now that we have proof the 9M729 is the INF-busting missile the US said it was all along, I hope certain arms control experts apologize for attempting to undercut US claims and NATO consenus. Trump may have handled it undiplomatically, but this was a bipartisan decision. 5/5

— William Alberque (@walberque) October 31, 2025

As to the veracity of the Ukrainian comments on the use of the 9M729, Douglas Barrie, Senior Fellow for Military Aerospace at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), told TWZ that he considered them to be plausible.

“If you think what the Russians have been doing elsewhere in terms of their weapons, the things that they have had in the locker and wanted to test, then you can see why they would want to use it,” Barrie said.

For its part, Russia has always denied that the 9M729 violated the now-defunct nuclear arms control treaty. At the same time, it accused the United States of violating the same treaty through the construction of Aegis Ashore missile defense sites in Europe, which it argues can be used to fire the BGM-109 Tomahawk land attack cruise missile, something that U.S. officials deny.

According to the Missile Threat website produced at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, the 9M729 can actually hit targets as far away as 2,500 kilometers (1,553 miles). Meanwhile, Douglas Barrie at the IISS says that he assesses the missile to have a likely range at least in excess of 2,000 kilometers (1,240 miles).

There is some evidence that backs up the claims of the 9M729’s use in Ukraine.

Ukrainian officials provided Reuters with images of debris after a Russian attack on the Ukrainian village of Lapaiivka on October 5, which purportedly involved the 9M729. This struck a residential building, killing four people, at a distance of over 600 kilometers (373 miles) from the Russian border.

Reportedly, these images include two missile fragments that were marked 9M729.

These images were reviewed by Jeffrey Lewis, Distinguished Scholar of Global Security at Middlebury College, who agreed that they were consistent with the 9M729’s expected appearance. In particular, the missile body and engine, as well as the distinct markings, pointed to the 9M729, according to Lewis’s analysis.

The Kremlin has not commented on the alleged use of the 9M729.

Russia only publicly acknowledged the existence of the 9M729 in November 2018, though it reportedly entered development sometime in the mid-2000s.

In 2019, Russia publicly displayed the launch canisters for the 9M729 and its associated transporter erector launcher, or TEL, and offered some details about the complete system.

At that time, Russia said that the 9M729 featured an improved guidance system and a larger warhead compared to the older 9M728, known to NATO as the SSC-7 Southpaw, another weapon understood to have been used by Russia against Ukraine. Russia argued that the 9M729 was longer, heavier, and actually had less range than its predecessor. The new TEL can also carry four missiles, while the older vehicle associated with the 9M728/SSC-7 could only fire two before needing to reload.

Russia has said that the 9M729 has a range of just less than 300 miles, which would be clearly contradicted by the latest information from Ukraine, provided it is accurate.

The more regular employment of the 9M729 would provide Russia with another cruise missile option for striking Ukraine. Up until now, it has primarily relied on the air-launched Kh-101 cruise missile, as well as the Kalibr, which can be launched from surface combatants and submarines. All of these weapons, 9M728 and 9M729 included, are subsonic.

However, compared to other land-based options, the 9M729 offers Russia the advantage that it can be launched from locations deeper inside Russia. It is also mobile, meaning that it is relatively easy to relocate and to conceal, so it can be fired from different locations and axes, making it harder for already hard-pressed Ukrainian air defenses to deal with.

There are several other reasons why Russia might now be using the 9M729.

It could be that numbers of the Kh-101 and Kalibr are running low, with Russia’s military-industrial complex, hampered by Western sanctions, which especially affect high-technology components of the kind that precision-guided weapons rely on, unable to backfill the arsenal sufficiently. Existing 9M729 rounds would provide another option to boost stocks of standoff weapons.

Approximate dimensions of the 9M729 according to Russian specifications.

The graphic, published by Sputnik News in 2019, matches Russia’s stated dimensions: a 51.4 cm diameter and a length 53 cm greater than the 9M728, which is reportedly 6.2 m long, making the 9M729 roughly… pic.twitter.com/XTJUE4WD1O

— Fabian Hoffmann (@FRHoffmann1) August 9, 2025

Secondly, there is the issue of signaling to Ukraine’s allies in the West.

The reported use of the 9M729 comes as Kyiv pushes for the United States to supply it with Tomahawk cruise missiles. Like the 9M729, these would be ground-launched weapons and would be able to strike targets deep inside Russia with a very high degree of precision. Unlike the 9M729, the Tomahawk was not outlawed under the INF Treaty, since, at that time, it was only sea-launched.

As far as Kyiv is concerned, having access to weapons like the Tomahawk would put additional pressure on Moscow to end its war in Ukraine.

Russian officials, including Putin, have warned that supplying Ukraine with Tomahawks would be a dangerous escalation.

Russian employment of the 9M729 also serves as a message to NATO nations in Europe, most of which fall well within its assumed range.

Moscow has repeatedly denied that the 9M729, which has conventional and nuclear armed variants, breached the INF Treaty. The Novator 9M728 (RS-SSC-7 Southpaw), a 500 km-range version of the same missile family, has been used in Ukraine.

Latest analysis: https://t.co/O4DNR8ZGEr pic.twitter.com/aRSG4wZ7q9

— IISS News (@IISS_org) August 31, 2024

In that sense, employing the 9M729 also serves to send a clear message to the West that Russia won’t bow to pressure, especially over the conflict in Ukraine. Other examples include recent tests of high-profile nuclear-capable weapons like the Poseidon nuclear-powered, nuclear-tipped, ultra-long-endurance torpedo, which you can read about here, and the Burevestnik nuclear-powered cruise missile, discussed here.

Another new weapon, the Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile, has also been used against Ukraine by Russia. Today, Ukraine claimed that its security service and military intelligence destroyed one of these missile systems during a covert operation at the Kapustin Yar testing range, in the Astrakhan region of southern Russia.

In the United States, meanwhile, President Donald Trump issued a statement this week saying he “instructed the Department of War to start testing our Nuclear Weapons on an equal basis. That process will begin immediately.” The reason, Trump explained, was because of “other countries [sic] testing programs.”

The United States has more Nuclear Weapons than any other country. This was accomplished, including a complete update and renovation of existing weapons, during my First Term in office. Because of the tremendous destructive power, I HATED to do it, but had no choice! Russia is…

— Commentary: Trump Truth Social Posts On X (@TrumpTruthOnX) October 30, 2025

The exact meaning of this statement remains unclear, but the possible implications are something we have discussed in detail.

At this point, we still don’t know with certainty that Russia is now using the 9M729 cruise missile against Ukrainian targets. However, considering its employment of other long-range weapons in the conflict, and the Kremlin’s ongoing efforts to send threatening signals toward Europe as Washington seeks a peace settlement, it certainly seems to fit that pattern.

Contact the author: [email protected]

Last year, Reliance Industries Ltd signed a deal with Russian major Rosneft to import nearly 500,000 barrels per day.

India’s top importer of Russian oil, the conglomerate Reliance Industries Ltd, says it will abide by Western sanctions, ending several days of speculation about how the company will manage new measures targeting Russia’s two largest oil companies.

Reliance “will be adapting the refinery operations to meet the compliance requirements”, a company spokesperson said in a statement on Friday, while maintaining its relationships with suppliers.

Recommended Stories

list of 4 itemsend of list

“Whenever there is any guidance from the Indian Government in this respect, as always, we will be complying fully,” the statement added.

On Wednesday, the United States Treasury Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) designated Russian majors Rosneft and Lukoil for the first time as President Donald Trump becomes increasingly frustrated with Russia’s unremitting war on Ukraine.

US Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent said the move was the result of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s “refusal to end this senseless war” and encouraged allies to adhere to the new sanctions.

The following day, the European Union adopted its 19th package of measures against Russia, which includes a full transaction ban on Rosneft. The EU has previously said that, starting January 21, it will not receive fuel imports from refineries that received or processed Russian oil 60 days prior to shipping.

Reliance, chaired by billionaire businessman Mukesh Ambani, operates the world’s biggest refining complex in western Gujarat. The company has purchased roughly half of the 1.7-1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) of discounted Russian crude shipped to India, the news agency Press Trust of India reported this week.

In 2024, Reliance signed a 10-year deal with Rosneft to buy nearly 500,000 bpd, Reuters reported at the time. It also buys Russian oil from intermediaries.

Reliance did not offer details on how, exactly, it planned to navigate the sanctions – nor the fate of the 2024 Rosneft agreement – but emphasised it would comply with European import requirements.

“Reliance is confident its time-tested, diversified crude sourcing strategy will continue to ensure stability and reliability in its refinery operations for meeting the domestic and export requirements, including to Europe,” the company spokesperson said.

The sanctions also arrive as India navigates the fallout from Trump’s tariffs on Indian exports, which rose to 50 percent starting in August as a penalty for importing Russian oil. China and India are the world’s largest importers of Russian crude.

Trump has claimed multiple times over the past month that India has agreed to stop buying Russian oil as part of a broader trade deal, an assertion the Indian government has not confirmed.

Neither India’s Ministry of External Affairs nor oil ministries have responded since the sanctions were announced on Wednesday.

Russia, the second largest oil exporter globally, is considering its response to U. S. sanctions targeting major oil companies Rosneft and Lukoil, amid the possibility of reduced sales to India, its largest buyer. President Vladimir Putin has been in talks with U. S. President Donald Trump for months about finding a resolution to the ongoing war in Ukraine, but no progress has been made yet.

On October 22, the U. S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control imposed sanctions on Rosneft, Lukoil, and their subsidiaries, urging Russia to agree to a ceasefire. Together, these two companies represent about half of Russia’s oil production and over 5% of the global oil supply. Earlier in January, sanctions were enacted against other Russian energy firms, but these did not severely disrupt Russian oil exports. The U. S. has also targeted the vessels and companies involved in transporting Russian oil, with some lawmakers calling for stricter measures.

Indian refiners, such as Reliance Industries, are reportedly looking to reduce or stop importing Russian oil due to increasing U. S. pressure. India purchased 1.9 million barrels per day in the first nine months of 2025, making up 40% of Russia’s total oil exports. Stricter sanctions may force Russia to offer larger discounts to maintain export levels, as oil and gas revenues are crucial for its budget and military efforts in Ukraine.

While halting crude exports is an option for Russia, it could also harm its allies, including China. Other choices include cutting exports of enriched uranium or rare metals, although these would also negatively impact Russia’s economy. Strengthening ties with China for rare-earth cooperation could counter U. S. pressures, given Russia’s substantial reserves.

Russia is a key member of OPEC+, which manages about half of global oil production, and any disruption to its exports could affect the organization’s market strategies. China, another significant buyer of Russian crude, reaffirmed its opposition to unilateral sanctions following the recent U. S. restrictions against Rosneft and Lukoil.

with information from Reuters

The TWZ Newsletter

Weekly insights and analysis on the latest developments in military technology, strategy, and foreign policy.

Another senior U.S. Army officer has spoken out about the service’s need for Shahed-136 like long-range, expendable drones. The need for the U.S. to procure exactly these kinds of relatively simple, comparatively very cheap and adaptable drones, built at scale, is something that TWZ has recently made a detailed case for.

When asked by Howard Altman of TWZ about a possible Army requirement for Shahed-like drones, the answer from Maj. Gen. James (Jay) Bartholomees, commanding general of the Hawaii-based 25th Infantry Division, was unequivocal.

“Absolutely,” Bartholomees said, speaking this week at the Association of the U.S. Army’s (AUSA) annual symposium. “We are behind on long-range sensing and long-range launched-effect strike.”

Bartholomees confirmed that the United States Indo-Pacific Command (USINDOPACOM), the unified combatant command responsible for the Indo-Pacific region, is “learning from what is happening in Ukraine,” where the Pentagon’s tardiness at widely adopting lower-end drones for its own offensive operations has been highlighted.

The Iranian-designed Shahed-136 long-range one-way attack drone, which is being mass-produced in Russia as the Geran, has become Moscow’s primary standoff weapon with which it bombards Ukraine on a daily basis.

While the U.S. military is lagging behind, Bartholomees said there’s good news on this front, too.

“I think we can catch up very rapidly,” Bartholomees said. “The formations that we built are ready for those capabilities to land.” Those formations include a launched effects company that the 25th Infantry Division is currently standing up. This will join the launched effects platoon that already exists within its multifunctional reconnaissance company.

As an initial experiment, the launched effects company will be created within the 25th Infantry Division’s artillery unit.

“We absolutely need to build this capability quickly,” Bartholomees continued. “We need to test it in our region; we also need to work with our allies and partners to do the same.”

Referring again to the Shahed, Bartholomees noted that, because this kind of drone “is very cheap, easy to produce, and easy to put together,” it makes it “exactly the type of capability that we would love to have for our allies and partners in the region.” Not only would long-range, expendable drones of this kind help regional allies and partners protect their sovereign territory, but they would also be relevant to defend their maritime spaces, something Bartholomees described as “a unique problem set.”

When asked where the U.S. Army was in relation to Russian efforts in the field of long-range one-way attack drones, Bartholomees admitted that “We are behind in that sense, we need to push faster, all the services, frankly, are on this chase to move faster.”

He did, however, note that there are some “defeat mechanism concerns” that have put something of a brake on the development of at least certain types drones.

Bartholomees identified the importance of the work being done within divisional innovation labs, specifically the work on a nascent long-range one-way attack capability.

“We’re building our own drones,” Bartholomees said. “We’re already starting to produce one-way attack, fixed-wing [but] the longer range obviously gets harder and harder to do, that’s where you need more airworthiness expertise.”

It should be noted that, with its focus on long range and cost effectiveness, a drone in the mold of the Shahed is of particular relevance to a future contingency in the Indo-Pacific theater in which the 25th Infantry Division would likely be engaged.

The Shahed-136 has a range of around 1,000 miles, depending on variant and payload. The extreme challenges of the Pacific call for strike weapons with long range. In fact, TWZ has advocated in the past for an extended-range one-way attack drone, which would be especially useful for reaching from the Second Island Chain to the Chinese mainland — a one-way trip of roughly 2,000 miles.

Bartholomees said he agreed with Lt. Gen. Charles Costanza, commander of the Army’s V Corps, which has a presence on NATO’s eastern flank, who also discussed drones and counter-drone capabilities at AUSA before talking further with Howard Altman of TWZ.

“We aren’t moving fast enough,” Costanza continued. “And it really took Russia’s invasion of Ukraine [in 2022], and the way they’re innovating, and Ukrainians are innovating, to realize, hey, we need to move fast.”

When asked specifically if the U.S. military needed a capability broadly in line with the Shahed drone, Constanza responded: “I think we do.”

Returning to Bartholomees, he argued that the rapid pace of drone development in the Ukrainian war is, in no small part, due to the result of an existential threat, which means the Ukrainian industrial base is “pushing incredibly hard for the sovereignty of their entire nation.”

“I have no doubt that we can push further, faster to get there,” Bartholomees, pointing to the partnership the Army is forging with the Marine Corps and Air Force, in this regard.

Of course, as we have argued repeatedly in the past, the United States could also find itself facing an existential threat, including an adversary that has a much larger arsenal of long-range, expendable drones. Namely, China.

At the same time, the need for huge numbers of long-range guided weapons that can pierce China’s anti-access bubble is coming to the forefront at a time when existing stockpiles are clearly below the required threshold. This is a reality that is meanwhile driving the development of a wide array of lower-cost, long-range weapons. These include low-cost jet-powered cruise missiles, but these are still significantly more expensive and complex than a Shahed-136 clone and/or they lack range in comparison.

Currently, there are a handful of smaller companies in the United States that are pitching a Shahed copy, or something very similar. While this is a useful starting point, it should be recalled that Russia is already mass-producing these kinds of weapons and is now understood to be building 5,000 a month.

A new U.S.-made version of the Geran/Shahed kamikaze drone appears, called the MQM-172 Arrowhead.

Previously, a similar kamikaze drone design named LUCAS was unveiled by the U.S. company SpektreWorks. pic.twitter.com/gxMBs7FOu4

— Clash Report (@clashreport) August 8, 2025

A new US–Ukrainian drone dubbed Artemis ALM-20, seen as a high-tech counterpart to the Shahed, has been successfully tested against targets in Russia. Built by Auterion, it features AI and self-guidance with a 1,600 km range and a 45 kg warhead. Production is set to begin in… pic.twitter.com/1MJFgiF7Jq

— NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) October 16, 2025

Thankfully, we are finally seeing some much-needed change when it comes to the U.S. military’s plans for fielding its own lower-end drones.

With senior officers like Bartholomees and Costanza making the case for long-range one-way attack drones, we might also start to see some more urgency here, too.

Contact the author: [email protected]

Kyiv, Ukraine – On October 2, Russian President Vladimir Putin alleged that Ukrainian attacks had destroyed a high-voltage transmission line between the Moscow-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in southeastern Ukraine and Kyiv-controlled areas.

Days earlier, Ukraine’s leader, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, said Russian shelling had cut the plant off from the electricity network.

Recommended Stories

list of 4 itemsend of list

The mammoth, six-reactor plant – Europe’s largest and known in Ukraine as the ZAES – sits less than 10km (6.2 miles) south of the front line. It has been shut since 2022, generating none of the electricity that once provided up to a fifth of Ukraine’s needs.

But dozens of Moscow-deployed engineers have frantically tried to restart it – so far unsuccessfully. Ukraine has long feared that Russia is trying to connect the power grid and quench a thirst for energy in Crimea and other occupied areas.

Putin purported that the alleged Ukrainian strikes caused a blackout at the plant and that it had to be fuelled by diesel generators.

The latest blackout at the plant is the longest wartime outage of power.

“On the [Ukrainian] side, people should understand that if they play so dangerously, they have an operating nuclear power station on their side,” Putin told a forum in St Petersburg.

‘The radioactivity is so powerful’

In fact, apart from the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, Ukraine has three operating power stations – as well as the shutdown Chornobyl facility, the site of one of the world’s worst nuclear disasters.

“And what prevents us from mirroring [Ukraine’s alleged actions] in response? Let them think about it,” Putin said.

His threat had apparently already been fulfilled a day earlier. Ukraine accused Russia of shelling that damaged the power supply to the colossal protective “sarcophagus” over the Chornobyl station’s Reactor Four that exploded in 1986.

Both the Chornobyl station and the plant in Zaporizhzhia need electricity for their safety systems and, most importantly, for the uninterrupted circulation of water that cools nuclear fuel.

The fuel, thousands of uranium rods that keep emitting heat, are too radioactive to be taken anywhere else.

In Chornobyl, the fuel is spent and submerged in cooling ponds or “dry-stored” in ventilated, secured facilities.

But at the Zaporizhzhia site, the rods are still inside the reactors – and are newer, hotter, and made in the United States.

Before the war, Ukraine began a switch from the hexagonal, bee-cell-like rods made by Rosatom, Russia’s nuclear monopoly, to the square rods made by Westinghouse, an energy giant based in Pittsburgh in the US.

The US-made rods will take years to cool down enough to be removed without the risk of contamination, according to a former Zaporizhzhia plant engineer who fled to Kyiv.

“The radioactivity is so powerful that one can’t get the fuel out, [or] transport or handle in other ways until it burns out. It will take years,” the engineer told Al Jazeera on condition of anonymity because of security concerns for relatives in Enerhodar.

Ukrainian forces ‘prevent’ Russia’s alleged plans

A greater challenge at the plant is a severe lack of reactor-cooling water. The Zaporizhzhia station stood less than 15km (9 miles) upstream from the mammoth, Soviet-designed Novo-Kakhovka dam on the Dnieper River.

The dam created a reservoir with up to 18 cubic kilometres (4.76 trillion gallons) of water that freely flowed to the power station. In June 2023, the dam was destroyed by powerful blasts – Ukraine and Russian traded blame – and the water level dropped dramatically.

The deep cooling ponds around the plant that never froze, even in the harshest winters, had been filled to the brim, but the water keeps evaporating. There is enough to cool the shutdown reactors – but not nearly enough if the station is restarted and the uranium rods turn the water into steam to power the turbines.

“It’s absolutely impossible to switch on even one bloc,” the engineer said. “Of course, the Russians keep digging and supply some water, but it’s not enough at all.”

The biggest problem is Russia’s failure to hook the plant to the energy grid of occupied regions as Ukrainian forces pin-pointedly destroy the transmission lines Russia is building – along with fuel depots and thermal power stations, he said.

“The Russians are restoring them any way they can, but Ukrainian forces very much prevent the restoration,” the engineer quipped.

Bellona, a Norway-based nuclear monitor, said on October 2 that a “greater danger lies in Moscow’s potential use of the crisis to justify reconnecting the plant to its own grid – portraying itself as the saviour preventing a nuclear disaster”.

Should Moscow do that, the step would only “worsen [the] strategic situation, give Moscow additional leverage, and bring a potential restart closer – a move that, amid ongoing fighting, would itself sharply increase the risk of a nuclear accident,” it said.

Analysts pointed to a deal proposed by US President Donald Trump in March to transfer the plant to US management as a possible solution.

Ukrainian strikes “will go on until Russia makes a peace deal that also includes US control over the ZAES and its operation”, Nikolay Mitrokhin, a researcher with Germany’s University of Bremen, told Al Jazeera.

Meanwhile, in recent weeks, blackouts in Crimea have become unpredictable and distressing, a Crimea local told Al Jazeera.

“They switch the power off and switch it back on without any warning. Then again – on and off, on and off. My fridge died,” said a resident of Simferopol, Crimea’s administrative capital, on condition of anonymity out of fear for his safety.

Russia understands that improved power supply is a prerequisite for its efforts to restore occupied Ukrainian regions and conquer more Ukrainian land, said an observer.

Moscow needs the plant to “cover the growing [energy] consumption in the region, considering not just occupied Crimea, but also the occupied areas [above the Sea of] Azov. And also within the context of Russia’s plan to occupy part of the Zaporizhia region,” Kyiv-based analyst Aleksey Kushch told Al Jazeera.

Greenpeace said that its detailed analysis of high-resolution satellite images taken after what Putin alleged were Ukrainian strikes showed that he was bluffing.

“There is no evidence of any military strikes in the area surrounding the pylons and network of power lines in this part of Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant,” the international environmentalist group said on October 1.

The images showed that the power towers remained in position and there were no craters left by explosions around the lines, it said.

Greenpeace concluded that the blackout at the plant is “a deliberate act of sabotage by Russia” whose aim is to “permanently disconnect the plant from the Ukraine grid and connect the nuclear plant to the grid occupied by Russia”.

President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky speaks on the second day of the 80th session of the General Debate in the UN General Assembly Hall at the United Nations Headquarters on Wednesday, September 24. He said that five people were killed overnight following Russia’s attack on various regions. File Photo by Peter Foley/UPI.. | License Photo

Oct. 5 (UPI) — Russia launched some 50 missiles and 500 drones in an overnight attack in Ukraine, leaving five people dead, the President Volodymyr Zelensky, said.

The assault was aimed at the country’s infrastructure, leaving thousands without power, the BBC reported.

The strikes on Liviv left four members of a family dead, and the attack in Zaporizhzhia killed one person.

The head of that region, Maksym Kozytskyi, said the area has not seen such a blitz since the Russian invasion began in 2022.

Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Kherson, Odesa and Kirovohrad were also targeted.

“Today, the Russians once again targeted our infrastructure — everything that ensures normal life for our people. We need more protection and faster implementation of all defense agreements, especially on air defense, to deprive this aerial terror of any meaning,” Zelensky said in a statement, per the New York Times.

The TWZ Newsletter

Weekly insights and analysis on the latest developments in military technology, strategy, and foreign policy.

While Danish intelligence does not see an immediate threat of a kinetic war, it claims Russia’s growing belligerence has included repeatedly threatening its warships and helicopters in Danish waters. These details are part of a new Danish intelligence threat assessment released Friday that concludes Russia is in a state of increasingly intense “hybrid war” with NATO. That is just below the threshold of armed conflict and comes at a time of mounting tensions between Moscow and the alliance.

“We have seen several incidents in the Danish straits, where Danish air force helicopters and naval vessels have been targeted by tracking radars and physically pointed at with weapons from Russian warships,” Danish Defense Intelligence Service (DDIS) Director Thomas Ahrenkiel stated at a press conference on Friday.

Russian warships had sailed on collision courses with Danish vessels during their passage through the straits, Ahrenkiel added. In addition, “a Russian warship has been anchored in Danish waters for over a week,” Reuters reported from the press conference. That suggested “possible interference from Moscow if Denmark tried to curb movements of Russia’s ‘shadow fleet’ of tankers used to circumvent Western sanctions on its oil exports imposed over its war with Ukraine.”

“Russia is using military force to try to intimidate Denmark and force it to abandon compliance with shipping rules in the Baltic Sea,” the Danish intelligence chief warned.

“Russia highly likely sees itself as being in conflict with the West, in which the hybrid means employed are kept below the threshold of armed conflict,” the report notes. “The DDIS assesses that Russia is currently conducting hybrid warfare against NATO and the West. It is highly likely that the hybrid threat from Russia against NATO will increase in the coming years.”

As examples, in addition to the aforementioned threats against its naval assets, Danish intelligence said that Russia “has deployed fighter jets to protect its shadow fleet as it carries Russian oil out of the Baltic Sea and has violated the airspace of NATO states with, for instance, fighter jets, helicopters and attack drones.” 

“The states that have been most affected by Russian airspace violations in recent months are Poland, Estonia, Finland, and Romania,” the report adds.

Russia’s hybrid war with NATO countries goes far beyond these measures, with accusations of cyber attacks, clandestine sabotage operations, widespread GPS jamming and much more.

“Since the spring of 2025, Russia’s aggressive military behavior towards NATO countries has further intensified,” according to the assessment.

Forsvarets Efterretningstjeneste (FE) har udarbejdet en vurdering af den hybride trussel mod Danmark.

FE vurderer, at Rusland for øjeblikket fører en hybrid krig mod NATO og Vesten.

Det er første gang, at FE udgiver en samlet vurdering af den hybride trussel. pic.twitter.com/2WNaNpjrAb

— Forsvarsministeriet/Danish MoD (@Forsvarsmin) October 3, 2025

The purpose of this “aggressive military behavior” is to test “NATO members’ response capabilities and [cause] concern among member states that NATO is headed towards war with Russia.”

In addition, Danish intelligence states that the threat of continued Russian military provocations and cyber attacks against NATO is classified as “high,” meaning “there are one or more actors that have the capacity for and are specifically planning attacks/harmful activity or that have already carried out or attempted attacks/harmful activity.”

Despite all this, Danish intelligence states that for now, the threat of open warfare with Russia is classified as “none,” meaning “there are no signs of a threat. There are no actors with both the capacity and intention for attacks/harmful activity.”

Meanwhile, European officials are investigating whether the ongoing wave of reported mystery drone sightings over military installations and airports is part of the Russian hybrid warfare efforts Danish intelligence is warning about.

The latest reported incident took place over the Elsenborn military base in the East Cantons section of Belgium, on the border with Germany.

“A Belgian test aircraft designed to detect drones sighted a total of 15,” the Belgian VRT news outlet reported on Friday. “Drones were observed at various altitudes on both the Belgian and German sides of the base. Where the drones came from and who operated them is not yet clear. The Ministry of Defence is investigating the incident.”

We’ve reached out to the Belgian MoD for more details about this incident.

The night before, the Munich Airport was shut down for several hours after drones were spotted nearby, forcing the grounding of 17 flights and the diversion to other airports of another 15, Munich Airport officials explained. The airport resumed flights early Friday morning.

Before these latest incidents, several airports in Denmark and Norway were closed after drones were spotted, which leaders in Denmark characterized as an effort to sow fear in the country.

Concern about these incursions has been so high that a German Navy frigate and counter-drone equipment from several nations were rushed to Copenhagen to protect the skies during a meeting of European Union leaders.

In addition, the Arleigh Burke class guided missile destroyer USS Bulkeley was deployed to the NATO Baltic Sentry operation, which has expanded from protecting critical undersea infrastructure to now defending against drones. It marks the first contribution of a U.S. Navy warship to that effort.

The recent Russian drone incursions into Poland and Romania and violations of Estonian airspace by three MiG-31 Foxhound interceptors have raised suspicions that Russia, which denies involvement, is behind this drone wave. However, there is no conclusive evidence, several European officials state.

“It’s possible,” that there is a Russian connection to the drone incursions, “but there are currently no concrete indications,” Belgian Defense Minister Theo Francken said. “That needs to be investigated. Personally, I think these drones are very often an example of a hybrid threat. This is a way to sow unrest. That has been Russia’s pattern for many years.”

Amid the accusations and suspicions, Russian President Vladimir Putin joked about drone incursions.

“Oh, you know, I think we’ve had enough fun with drones for now,” he joshed. “’I won’t do it anymore. I won’t go to France, Denmark or Copenhagen anymore. Where else do they fly?”

🇷🇺 Putin asked about drone incursions in Europe

Host:”What is your response to these allegations [Drone incursion into Denmark] ?”

Putin (Jokingly):”Oh, you know, I think we’ve had enough fun with drones for now. I promise, no more drone launches in Denmark. We wouldn’t want to… pic.twitter.com/8PIizlp699

— Red Panda Koala (@RedPandaKoala) October 2, 2025

As we have explained in the past, it is quite possible that many, if not most of these sightings are mistaken identity. It is a pattern that emerged last year when thousands of people claimed to see drones in the New Jersey region of the U.S. The overwhelming majority of those sightings were airplanes, planets and other benign objects in the sky.

Still, just like in the New Jersey case, we do know that a limited number of the sightings over military bases were confirmed by the government. The reality is that these drone incursions over critical facilities in Europe have been happening for years, but just how much it has exploded in recent weeks is blurred by media reports and sightings not supported by independent analysis or corroborated by sensor data.

Regardless, the drone incursion reports have rattled Europe, especially given that some had to be shot down amid an ongoing brutal war in Ukraine that is spilling over borders more frequently. That this comes as European officials are accusing Moscow of engaging in hybrid warfare speaks to the importance of finding the source of these objects.

Contact the author: [email protected]

Despite Western sanctions, Russia’s military spending has fuelled its war economy. Three years into the war in Ukraine, growth is stalling, energy revenues are plunging, and the budget deficit is widening.

To shore up state coffers, Russia is raising the value-added tax from 20 percent to 22 percent, among other measures. The Ministry of Finance says funds will mainly cover defence and security spending.

The plan came a day after United States President Donald Trump said Russia was in “big economic trouble”, but is it?

Can the United Kingdom’s Labour Party deliver on its economic promises?

Plus, will the Africa-US trade pact, AGOA, be renewed?

The TWZ Newsletter

Weekly insights and analysis on the latest developments in military technology, strategy, and foreign policy.

In what it claims is the first such attack in history, Ukraine has used drones to strike a pair of Russian Navy Be-12, a twin-turboprop amphibious aircraft that we have profiled in depth in the past. The raid appears to have targeted two of the extremely scarce seagoing planes, potentially halving the number of airframes available to Russia and leaving a question mark over the future service for the type.

For the first time in history 🔥
The warriors from the @DI_Ukraine destroyed two russian Be-12 Chayka amphibious aircraft. Be-12s amphibious aircraft are equipped with expensive equipment for detecting and combating submarines. This is the first ever strike on a Be-12.
The… pic.twitter.com/s8MskN8ZAo

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 22, 2025

The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense today published a video showing the attack on an airfield in Russian-occupied Crimea, which it says is “the first ever strike on a Be-12.” Seen from the perspective of the kamikaze drones, two of the amphibians are hit (one of them with the Bort number 08) and a Mi-8 helicopter is also struck. The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense claims the destruction of all three aircraft, but that cannot currently be independently verified. The airbase is almost certainly Kacha, near the Black Sea Fleet’s major naval base at Sevastopol.

Video of the aftermath of the recent Ukrainian drone strike on a Russian Mi-8 in Crimea published by Russian source with such description: “They’ve hit Crimea again. Minus the helicopters and a few other things, I can’t write about them. There’s no air defense, and the radar is… https://t.co/aeIKto9IXV pic.twitter.com/B0B9118d6i

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) September 22, 2025

According to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense’s Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR), the drone strike was carried out on September 21 by the “Ghost” special forces unit.

The Be-12, known as Tchaika, or Seagull, in Russian and codenamed Mail by NATO, was first flown in 1960 and which then served throughout the rest of the Cold War. It has played an unsung but important role since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, most notably helping hunt for Ukrainian uncrewed surface vessels (USVs), or ‘drone boats,’ in the Black Sea.

What is clear, however, is that the number of these amphibians available to Russia was already strictly limited.

The U.K.-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) think tank reports that, at the beginning of 2023, Russia had six Be-12s. All were said to be in the Be-12PS search-and-rescue configuration. Recent satellite imagery of Kacha airfield in Crimea shows seven or eight Be-12s, of which four or five were airworthy, according to the Ukrainian Channel 24.

Provided that the two aircraft struck by the GUR were airworthy, and both are now either destroyed or damaged beyond repair, then the Be-12 force available to the Russian Navy may well have been halved. On the other hand, the fact that one aircraft appears to lack a propeller on one of its engines suggests it might already have been withdrawn from use. It could still be a highly valued source for spare parts though.

Videos and photos showing Russian Be-12s operating over the coast of Crimea began to proliferate in summer 2022, and, since then, there have been multiple reports indicating that these aircraft are being used to spot USVs, and likely other Ukrainian activity, including by special forces teams, combat divers, and reconnaissance parties, in and around the peninsula.

ℹ️ #Ukraine – 20220816 – unkknown place, #Crimea – Reported around 22.27 pm, video from unknown date shows an 4 decades old floatboat Beriev Be-12 Tchaika (1961)

Comment: possible filmed after explosions Russian airbase on Aug. 9, 2022 pic.twitter.com/tTN2PDuyGl

— glosm eusec (@glosmeusec) August 16, 2022

During its Cold War heyday, the Be-12 was mainly an anti-submarine warfare platform, but, without any significant upgrades, the aircraft has long since ceased to have any real utility in this role.

Today’s aircraft can also be used for combat search and rescue, for example, dropping supplies to Russian airmen downed over the Black Sea. The Be-12PS can also carry 13 survivors, although, since there are very strict limits on landing on water, due to the age of the airframes, this is of little relevance.

The Be-12 can also be used in a transport capacity, if required.

In an uncontested environment, the Be-12 still offers useful reconnaissance capabilities. Its radar is able to provide a basic situational awareness picture of the coastline, as well as detect ships, in a sea-control role. More importantly, especially for USV detection, is the extensively glazed nose station, accommodating the navigator/observer.

For Russia, Ukraine’s expanding USV operations have become increasingly problematic. Ukraine’s drone boat campaign has kept Russia’s Black Sea Fleet at bay and damaged enemy military facilities in occupied Crimea as well as the Kerch Bridge. Its drone boats have proliferated and become more diverse, including USVs that can launch bomber drones, which have been used to target Russian radars and air defense systems. Perhaps, drones launched from USVs were also responsible for attacking the aircraft at Kacha yesterday. Regardless, Ukraine has stepped up its use of drones to attack Russian assets in Crimea, in particular, with important radar sites being primary targets. Consistent attacks on airfields on the peninsula have also led to the construction of hardened aircraft shelters at the airbase on Belbek.

💥Ukrainian heavy drones launched from the marine drones bombard Russian radar systems in Crimea!

Strikes were carried out on the components of the Russian “Nebo-M” radar system:
•RLM-M 55Zh6M “Nebo-M”
•RLM-D 55Zh6M “Nebo-M”
•Radar Command Post (KU RLS) 55Zh6M “Nebo-M” pic.twitter.com/fSr2zCNt8k

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) July 3, 2025

While Ukraine’s drone boat campaign began with kamikaze variants, laden with explosives and set out on one-way missions to hit Russian targets, these vessels now also include reusable anti-aircraft platforms, first-person view (FPV) drone launchers, and even gunboats.

With the latest Ukrainian attack on Kacha and dwindling spares for the type, the Russian Navy might finally be forced to decommission the Be-12. Until now, it has survived against the odds, including the dissolution of the Soviet Union, which divided much of the surviving fleet between Russia and Ukraine. In 1992, the Russian Be-12 fleet was officially decommissioned, but actual operational activity continued.

Then there was the annexation of Crimea, where the aircraft had long been based, and the all-out war with Ukraine.

In the air, the Be-12 has no chance of surviving without total air superiority, but it is on the ground that the aircraft first appears to have suffered losses. This continues a pattern of attacks on Russian aircraft on bases in Crimea, especially by drones, a tactic that has now extended deep into Russia as well.

Whether or not yesterday’s drone strike spells the end of the Be-12’s long career, Ukraine has struck another blow to the Russian military capabilities on the Crimean peninsula.

Contact the author: [email protected]

Sept. 22 (UPI) — The United Nations Security Council is to convene Monday to address Russia’s breach last week of Estonia airspace, according to the European union and NATO member.

Kremlin MiG-31 fighter jets flew through Estonian airspace for 12 minutes on Friday, the latest transgression of a foreign national’s airspace in recent weeks during Russia’s war in Ukraine.

Estonia announced the U.N. Security Council meeting on Sunday, describing its mission as to address Russia’s breach of Tallinn’s “territorial integrity” and its violation of a prohibition on the threat or use of force.

“This incursion into Estonian airspace is yet another dangerous act aimed at escalating regional and global tensions, as Russia — a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council — continues its war of aggression against Ukraine,” Tallinn’s foreign ministry said in a statement on X.

“Russia’s reckless and aggressive actions, and its repeated violations of international law and the principles of the U.N. Charter, require a strong and united international response.”

The Friday breach saw three MiG-31s travel within 12 1/2 miles of downtown Tallinn, where there are government buildings of NATO allies and EU member states, according to Jonatan Vseviov, secretary general of Estonia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

He called the breach a “pattern of unacceptable behavior” observed in recent weeks with repeated air and drone incidents in the region.

Last week, Romania summoned the Russian ambassador to Bucharest after Moscow’s drone incursion into its airspace on Sept. 13. It flew within Romanian airspace for 50 minutes.

Before that, Poland shot down at least three of 19 Russian drones that had breached its airspace overnight Sept. 9.

Vseviov chastised Russia over the Friday incursion, saying “it brought aircraft dangerously close to our capital.”

Estonian Defense Forces said NATO F-35s were scrambled in response.

It was Russia’s fourth violation of Estonia’s airspace this year, it said.

“By openly violating Estonian airspace, Russia undermines principles vital to the security of all U.N. member states. When such actions are committed by a permanent member of the Security Council, they must be addressed by that very body” Estonia Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna said in a statement.

“Tomorrow’s U.N. Security Council meeting is essential.”

VLADIMIR Putin has fired his top general amid ongoing humiliating blows from Ukraine.

General Alexander Lapin, 61, was reportedly sacked for failing to sweep through the Sumy region – considered one of the tyrant’s key war goals.

6

6

6

6

Once a decorated militant, he was awarded the Kremlin’s top honour: the Hero of Russia.

Despite his many medals, however, he came under fire and was criticised as “incompetent” by military experts.

Putin ally Ramzan Kadyrov, head of Chechnya, said of him three years ago: “If I had my way, I would have demoted Lapin to private, deprived him of his awards, and sent him to the front line to wash off his shame with the rifle in his hands.”

Reports suggest Russia lost three battalions in its attempt to capture the Sumy region as Ukraine continues to grind down on Vlad.

His dismissal, however, has raised suspicions Putin is looking for scapegoats to explain his humiliating military defeats.

This includes his slow territorial gains into Ukraine while losing millions of men both injured and killed.

He was also earlier blamed for Ukraine’s impressive advance into Russia’s Kursk region, which the tyrant only narrowly pushed back on thanks to North Korean forces.

During the war, Lapin commanded the Centre group of forces, reaching  the title Hero of Russia.

A year later, he was appointed Chief of the General Staff of Russian Ground Forces.

Later he commanded the Leningrad Military District, then the North group.

In his new role, he will be in charge of recruiting contract soldiers in Tatarstan, the 44th largest region in Russia.

He will also liaise with service families including widows of fallen soldiers. 

It comes as analysts have recognised how Ukraine has been heavily defending a key town for over a year in its war with Russia.

The key town of Pokrovsk has also been deemed strategically critical for Putin’s territorial ambitions.

6

6

As a vital railway and transport hub, Provosk could give Russia a huge supply line if captured, according to intelligence officer Philip Ingram.

It has been nicknamed the “gateway to Donetsk” by Russian media with key crossroads that could enable Putin the seize the rest of the area.

Putin has also revealed how he just about “dodged” death trying to fire up the engine of a motorbike.

The 72-year-old told defence minister Andrei Belousov of the incident: “I once got on a motorcycle, revved it.

“And it went into a spin and flipped over.

“I just dodged it at the last second. It fell right next to me.”

The Russian leader has long sought to cultivate an image as a macho tough guy as part of his domestic persona.

He shared the motorbike anecdote dressed in military fatigues – despite being hundreds of miles from the war zone.

The US Geological Survey described the earthquake as an ‘aftershock’ from the massive magnitude 8.8 quake that struck region in July.

A magnitude 7.8 earthquake has struck the Kamchatka region in Russia’s Far East in what the US Geological Survey has called an “aftershock” from a massive earlier quake in July.

The quake early on Friday triggered a series of tsunami warnings in the region, but despite waves reaching some shores, there were no reports of damage.

Recommended Stories

list of 4 itemsend of list

The US Geological Survey said the quake was caused by “shallow reverse faulting” at a depth of 10km (6.2 miles) and was followed by a series of aftershocks, measuring up to a magnitude of 5.8.

 

Russia’s Emergencies Ministry said the quake had a magnitude of 7.2.

Kamchatka regional Governor Vladimir Solodov said all emergency services had been placed in a state of high readiness, but no damage had been reported so far.

“This morning is once again testing the resilience of Kamchatka residents,” Solodov wrote on the Telegram messaging app. “Immediately after the earthquake, we began a rapid inspection of social institutions and residential buildings.”

A tsunami warning was issued for the eastern shore of the peninsula, jutting far out into the Bering Sea and Pacific Ocean.

Other officials reported tsunami waves of 30 to 62 centimetres (1 to 2 feet) at various points along the coast of the peninsula.

A tsunami warning was also issued for parts of the Kuril island chain, north of Japan, the Emergencies Ministry said.

Videos uploaded to social media captured the moment of the quake, showing people’s light fittings shaking, furniture rattling, and cars parked in the street rocking while their security alarms sounded.

The US National Weather Service and Pacific Tsunami Warning Center issued a tsunami advisory for parts of Alaska following the quake, but the warning was later lifted.

Kamchatka is located in a highly seismic area, and at least two quakes with a magnitude greater than 7.0 have occurred in the past week.

An earthquake in July reached a magnitude of 8.8 and triggered a tsunami that flooded a seaport town and activated warnings across the entire Pacific.

🌋Scientists who landed on the volcano filmed the moment of the earthquake in #Kamchatka.

Footage of the powerful #earthquake in Kamchatka has appeared online.

In the first video, recorded by specialists from one of the research centers, a helicopter that has just dropped off a… pic.twitter.com/tboMJLaaxi

— News.Az (@news_az) September 13, 2025

United States President Donald Trump pledged numerous times before returning to office that he would end Russia’s war on Ukraine within a day.

But last week, he admitted that the war had proved far more difficult to resolve than other conflicts.

Recommended Stories

list of 4 itemsend of list

Meanwhile, the fighting continues, with swarms of drones launched by both sides hitting targets in Russia and Ukraine.

The battle for territory grinds on slowly but brutally in eastern Ukraine – both above and below ground.

There is also anxiety in Europe after Russian drones entered the airspace of two NATO members.

There is anxiety, too, at the level of support the US might offer in any confrontation.

So, a month after his face-to-face meetings with the leaders of Russia and Ukraine, what is Trump’s thinking about the war?

And what is the strategy inside the Kremlin – and in Ukraine, and of its European allies?

Is there any prospect of ending this war?

Presenter: Adrian Finighan

Guests:

Pavel Felgenhauer, analyst on defence and Russian foreign policy

Steven Erlanger, chief diplomatic correspondent in Europe for The New York Times.

Niall Stanage, White House columnist at The Hill newspaper

The TWZ Newsletter

Weekly insights and analysis on the latest developments in military technology, strategy, and foreign policy.

Poland’s president on Thursday said the Russian drone incursions into his country were not only deliberate, but they were a test of NATO’s ability to react to aerial threats. Meanwhile, Warsaw has ordered the closure of airspace along the border with Belarus and Ukraine, and NATO allies continue to provide additional air defense support.

In addition, the UN Security Council will convene tomorrow to take up the issue. Poland’s foreign minister, Radosław Sikorski said his country plans to use the security council meeting to “draw the world’s attention to this unprecedented Russian drone attack on a member of the UN, EU and NATO.”

These actions come a day after Polish authorities said 19 Russian drones entered the country’s airspace, with some of them being shot down by Polish and Dutch combat aircraft. You can catch up to our reporting on the incident in our story here.

“The Russian provocation was nothing more than an attempt to test our capabilities and responses,” Karol Nowracki stated on X. “It was an attempt to check the mechanism of action within NATO and our ability to react. Thanks to the wonderful Polish pilots and our allies, Poland, which is in NATO, will neither fear nor be frightened by Russian drones.”

Rosyjska prowokacja była niczym więcej tylko próbą testowania naszych zdolności i reagowania. Była próbą sprawdzenia mechanizmu działania w ramach NATO i naszych zdolności do reakcji.

Dzięki wspaniałym polskim pilotom oraz naszym sojusznikom, Polska, która jest w NATO, nie… pic.twitter.com/HhdW3uAu1T

— Karol Nawrocki (@NawrockiKn) September 11, 2025

“We passed all of these tests,” Nawrocki told troops during a visit to the 31st Tactical Air Base in Poznań-Krzesiny in western Poland, according to the Polish Polskiradio media outlet. That base “is a key hub in Poland’s air defense effort,” the outlet added.

Polish authorities say Russian drones began to violate the country’s airspace at around 11:30 PM local time Tuesday night. The last incursion was reported at 6:30 AM local time on Wednesday. The intrusions came amid a new round of Russian drone and missile attacks on neighboring Ukraine. 

Sikorski, Poland’s Foreign Minister, subsequently said there had been 19 total airspace violations. He also said Poland has assessed that the drones “did not veer off course but were deliberately targeted.”

Pictures that have emerged so far show the drones that have been retrieved look to be Gerberas, a cheaper and simplified Russian-developed complement to variants and derivatives of the Iranian-designed Shahed-136s. Gerbera, which has a far shorter range than the Shaheds, can be configured as kamikaze drones or decoys. It is unclear whether the ones that flew into Poland were armed, although we have seen no evidence of that at this time, which would make sense considering their supposed intended mission. It is also unclear if Shaheds were used in the operation, as well.

Though the Gerbera drones normally have an estimated range just under 373 miles (600 kilometers), some analysts claimed they can be configured to carry extra fuel for longer range. This would make sense when a warhead or other specialized mission payload is not present.

Looks the Russian suicide drones that violated Polish airspace were equipped with extra fuel tanks for the first time ever.

It would have given them longer range and could have made it possible for them to fly all the way to western Poland or even Germany.

1 nearly reached… pic.twitter.com/CIo0Zulzgt

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) September 10, 2025

Flying a large number of likely unarmed drones, specifically ones often used as decoys to draw attention and fire from air defenses, fits with Russia’s playbook of so called hybrid or ‘gray zone’ warfare tactics as well as long-standing tactics used to stimulate enemy air defenses to gain key intelligence insights. These can include gauging the capability of sensor systems and their coverage areas, operating procedures, and reaction times, as well as critical electronic intelligence about the targeted force’s electronic order of battle. After this event occurred, we detailed likely being the case.

In addition to testing NATO air defense capabilities and readiness, the Russian operation was also a probe into how the U.S. might respond, the former head of the Polish Foreign Intelligence Service said.

“The ultimate target of these provocations is the United States,” Piotr Krawczyk told The New York Times. “Moscow seeks to pressure Washington by testing NATO, knowing that the U.S. will ultimately have to make the key decisions” about European security.

It is unclear what actions U.S. President Donald Trump may take. On Wednesday, he took to his Truth Social network to post a cryptic message.

“What’s with Russia violating Poland’s airspace with drones? Here we go!” he wrote.

I completely agree with President @realDonaldTrump‘s sentiment in response to Russia’s insane violation of Polish airspace for hours, deploying multiple drones.

Mr. President, Congress is with you. We stand ready to pass legislation authorizing bone crushing new sanctions and… pic.twitter.com/LIqYmS4rG7

— Lindsey Graham (@LindseyGrahamSC) September 10, 2025

After posting that message, Trump spoke with the Polish president.

“A short while ago, I spoke by phone with U.S. President Donald Trump about the multiple violations of Polish airspace by Russian drones that took place last night,” Nawrocki said. “The conversation is part of a series of consultations I have been holding with our allies. Today’s talks confirmed allied unity.”

Asked on Thursday about Russian drones violating Polish airspace, Trump told reporters: “It could have been a mistake. It could have been a mistake, but regardless I’m not happy about anything having to do with that situation.”

A spokesman for NATO on Thursday reiterated to us that there are no force posture plans to announce by the alliance.

“Allies remain in close consultation with one another,” U.S. Army Col. Martin O’Donnell told us. Air Force Gen. Alexus Grynkewich, the Supreme Allied Commander Europe, “is travelling in the Baltic region (we were in Lithuania earlier today, and just landed in Latvia), has had calls and meetings with numerous Allied civilian and military leaders, as well as the Alliance’s head.”

While Poland, NATO and other alliance members say the Russian drone incursions were intentional, Grynkewich was more non-committal.

“We do not yet know if this was an intentional act or an unintentional act” from Russia, he told reporters on Thursday. It would be a different story if Russia sent a massive drone wave over the border, he added.

“There’s no doubt in my mind, if we experience a drone swarm of hundreds, that is not an accident, that is not an incursion, that would be an attack against Alliance territory,” he explained.

During their meeting with Grynkewich, Lithuanian officials called for a new air defense mission over the Baltics. How that would differ from the current effort is unclear.

Today, 🇱🇹DefMin @DSakaliene met SACEUR Gen. Alexus G. Grynkewich. Talks focused on boosting air defence after Russian drone entered Polish airspace. Minister announced €0.5bn+ investment in Lithuania’s air defence & urged NATO to launch a new air defence mission over the Baltics pic.twitter.com/WJV8QWaz7r

— Lithuanian MOD 🇱🇹 (@Lithuanian_MoD) September 11, 2025

Poland has significant air defense capabilities itself and has been making major investments to expand and improve them. This includes plans for a new aerostat-based elevated airborne early warning system that would be especially useful for spotting and tracking incoming low-flying threats like drones and cruise missiles along its borders.

Still, in the wake of the drone incursions, Warsaw ordered about 400 miles of its airspace along the borders with Ukraine and Belarus off-limits until December.

“At the request of the Operational Commander of the RSZ, to ensure state security, from September 10, 2025 (22:00 UTC) to December 9, 2025 (23:59 UTC), a restriction on air traffic has been introduced in the eastern part of Poland in the form of a restricted zone,” the Operational Command of the Polish Armed Forces stated on X.

The command did not provide details about how it will enforce this restricted airspace or whether this will change the rules of engagement already in place under existing air policing efforts.

These low and slow-flying, relatively small drones are notoriously challenging to detect. Sanitizing airspace where they would have to cross through would help air defenders detect these smaller signatures and tune their sensors to do so.

We reached out to the command and the Polish Defense Ministry to find out more about how they will enforce the restrictions. No response has been provided by the time of publication.

#NOTAM
Na wniosek Dowódcy Operacyjnego RSZ, w celu zapewnienia bezpieczeństwa państwa, od 10 września 2025 r. (22:00 UTC) do 9 grudnia 2025 r. (23.59 UTC) zostało wprowadzone ograniczenie ruchu lotniczego we wschodniej części Polski w postaci strefy ograniczonej.

Szczegółowe… pic.twitter.com/iK4hBSTQsj

— Dowództwo Operacyjne RSZ (@DowOperSZ) September 11, 2025

Latvia too has closed its airspace through at least Sept. 18 and is contemplating closing its land border as well, Defense Minister Andris Sprūds announced at a press conference. The Baltic nation shares about 90 miles of border with Russia and about 70 miles with Belarus.

While there is “currently no direct threat to Latvia, preventive measures are needed,” he said. The airspace will be closed up to an altitude of 6,000 meters in a 50-kilometer strip from the country’s external border. 

“The closure will not affect travelers, only those who engage in aviation at a hobby level,” according to the Latvian LSM.lv media outlet. “This will help detect unauthorized flying objects. Higher-flying aircraft will be allowed to cross this zone. The closure of the Eastern land border is also being evaluated, but this must be decided together with Estonia and Lithuania.”

By restricting the airspace, Latvia will be able to better detect Russian drones from other aircraft. That in turn will enable a quicker reaction from NATO air policing patrols and give air defenses a clearer picture of potential targets, the outlet noted.

Ukrainian President Volodmyr Zelensky said he offered to share his country’s lessons learned in defending against Russian drones with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk.

“I offered Poland our assistance, training, and experience in shooting down Russian drones, including ‘Shaheds,’” Zelensky stated on Telegram. “We agreed with Donald on appropriate cooperation at the military level. We will also coordinate with all NATO member countries.”

The head of Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Command offered to help train Polish troops on how to respond to drone attacks.

“Dear people of Poland! By the order published by the President of Ukraine, specialists, pilots, and UAV operators will gladly share with you all their accumulated experience and expertise in anti-Shahed combat,” Robert Brovdi announced on Telegram. “We are deeper in this matter than anyone else due to daily involvement. Although not yet perfect — time is short.”

⚡️Commander Magyar to the people of Poland:

“Jeszcze Polska nie zginela, kiedy my żyjemy!” *

The threats are closer than they seem.
Impunity against a backdrop of “concern” and indecision only feeds the appetites of war. It’s a matter of time, not probability.

From now on,…

— 414 Magyar’s Birds (@414magyarbirds) September 10, 2025

Russia, meanwhile, continues to maintain that the only drones they launched were part of a massive attack on Ukraine and that none could reach into Poland due to range limitations.

“The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation carried out a massive strike with long-range, land-based, sea-based, and air-based high-precision weapons, as well as with attack drones against the Ukrainian defence industry enterprises in Ivano-Frankovsk, Khmelnitsky, Zhitomir regions, as well as in the cities of Vinnitsa and Lviv,” the MoD claimed. “The goals of the strike were achieved. All the assigned targets were engaged. There were no intentions to engage any targets on the territory of Poland. The maximum flight range of the Russian UAVs used in the strike, which allegedly crossed the border with Poland, does not exceed 700 km.”

Though no new incursions have been reported, the situation remains tense. There have been promises made to provide Poland with additional air defense resources and NATO is reviewing how to improve its collective defenses.

The Netherlands already decided to deliver layered air defence to east Poland later this year.

With 2 Patriot systems, NASAMS, counter drone systems and 300 troops, we’ll deploy advanced capabilities.

Today has shown this is more important than ever for our joint security. 🇳🇱🇵🇱 pic.twitter.com/NwR9N6Rw7T

— Ruben Brekelmans (@DefensieMin) September 10, 2025

‼️‼️‼️DŮLEŽITÉ: ČESKÁ REPUBLIKA POMŮŽE POLSKU‼️‼️‼️

Kvůli dnešnímu aktu ruské agrese je Česká republika připravena poslat na pomoc Polsku tři vrtulníky Mi-171Š. Polské armádě pomohou s ochranou země před drony v malých výškách.

O rozhodnutí ministryně obrany @jana_cernochova… pic.twitter.com/WExYXBk2bA

— Ministerstvo obrany (@ObranaTweetuje) September 10, 2025

On Thursday, French President Emmanuel Macron announced he was deploying three Rafale fighters “to contribute to the protection of Polish airspace and the Eastern Flank of Europe alongside our NATO allies.”

Suite aux incursions de drones russes en Pologne, j’ai décidé de mobiliser trois chasseurs Rafale pour contribuer à la protection de l’espace aérien polonais et du Flanc Est de l’Europe avec nos alliés de l’OTAN.

Je m’y étais engagé hier auprès du Premier ministre polonais.…

— Emmanuel Macron (@EmmanuelMacron) September 11, 2025

The Russian drone incursion has raised alarms across Europe and spurred a wide range of actions. The big question now is whether or not this was an isolated event or a sign of a new far more aggressive shift from Moscow.

Contact the author: [email protected]

A RUSSIAN oligarch’s estranged wife has won a six-year fight to drag her divorce battle into the English courts.

Natalia Potanina secured a landmark Court of Appeal ruling on Thursday to sue her billionaire ex-husband Vladimir Potanin, who is said to be worth around £15.7billion.

8

8

8

Potanin is described as Russia’s second richest man and a pal of Vladimir Putin through their shared love of ice hockey.

Potanin is the chief executive of Norilsk Nickel, the world’s largest palladium producer and a global nickel giant.

But he was sanctioned by the UK and US in 2022 after Putin’s brutal invasion of Ukraine.

The former couple wed in Russia in 1983, where they lived for their entire married life and raised three children.

They split in acrimonious fashion, with Potanin claiming the marriage ended in 2007.

Potanina insists they only separated in 2013, with a Russian court finalising the divorce a year later.

He has previously claimed their marriage ended when her husband calmly told her over tea that he was leaving her for a younger employee.

She said at first she thought it was a “badly-worded joke” but was later told she “didn’t need money” when the subject of a financial settlement arose.

The pair first met as penniless students in the 1970s, when Russia was still under communism.

Potanina argues that her husband only built his fortune after their marriage, and that she supported him throughout his rise.

Despite his £15billion fortune, Potanina was awarded just £30.9million in the Russian courts – less than one per cent of the family wealth.

Lawyers for Potanin argue she actually received around £63m, but she insists the sum barely scratched the surface of their assets.

Now, after years of legal wrangling, Potanina has been cleared to bring a claim in London for financial relief – setting the stage for what could become the world’s biggest-ever marital split.

She is seeking half of her ex-husband’s beneficial interest in shares in Norilsk Nickel, along with half of the dividends paid on those shares since 2014.

She also wants half the value of a lavish Moscow mansion known as The Autumn House, on which the couple splashed out around £111million.

She is thought to be seeking around £5billion in total.

At the heart of earlier disputes was the couple’s palatial family home in Nemchinovo, 17 miles west of Moscow, where they lived with their three children – daughter Anastasia, and sons Ivan and Vasily.

Also up for grabs were two superyachts, including “The Anastasia,” named after their daughter, and “The Nirvana.”

Potanina’s legal team told the court she had earned her share of the fortune through years of marriage and by being the “main carer” of their children.

Her barrister, Charles Howard KC, branded the earlier dismissal of her case “inconsistent and illogical,” accusing the judge of falling into Potanin’s trap of repeatedly labelling her a “divorce tourist.”

Potanin’s lawyers, led by Lord Faulks KC, countered that the couple had “no connection with this jurisdiction during the marriage” and that Potanina only had “recent and modest connections” to England when she applied.

London’s High Court originally threw out her claim in 2019, warning that allowing it would mean “no limit to divorce tourism.”

That decision was overturned in 2021 by the Court of Appeal, only for Potanin to win a narrow 3-2 victory in the Supreme Court last year, which sent the case back to be reconsidered.

Now, judges Lord Justice Moylan, Lady Justice Falk and Lord Justice Cobb have sided with Potanina once again, ruling she had “substantial grounds” to pursue her claim in England.

8

8

8

They said there was evidence she had “very largely severed her ties with Russia” and that her connection to the country was “increasingly tenuous.”

The ruling added: “The discrepancy between her award of the marital assets and the husband’s retained share was significant.

“The discrepancy between what she had recovered in Russia compared with what she would have recovered had the case been heard in this jurisdiction was equally significant.”

The Sun reported in 2016 that Potanina was living “in exile” in central London, near Westminster Abbey.

She said at the time to be fearing that if she returned to Russia her passport could be seized, preventing her from visiting her son studying in New York.

She also accused her husband of offering her only medical insurance, a driver, and maintenance for their youngest child, rather than a fair settlement.

The blockbuster ruling reignites fears that London will become the “divorce capital of the world.”

Jennifer Headon, head of international family law at Birketts LLP, said the High Court had already warned such a move could open the floodgates to “limitless” divorce tourism.

Sarah Jane Lenihan, partner at Dawson Cornwell, said few had expected such an outcome, asking: “The question now is whether it will open the door for others who have divorced overseas to seek a second bite at the cherry in England.”

Sital Fontenelle, head of family law at Kingsley Napley LLP, said the ruling reinforced the UK’s status as the “divorce capital of the world” and left the “door still open” for future claims.

Peter Burgess, partner at Burgess Mee, added that aspiring “divorce tourists” might now wait to demonstrate their links to England at a full hearing rather than being knocked back early.

She has previously said her situation reflects the discrimination faced by many women in Russia, where “the law is male, the ideology is male,” adding that she had been “deprived of money and driven out of the house.”

Potanina’s solicitor, Frances Hughes of Hughes Fowler Carruthers, hailed the ruling as a “second vindication” of her client’s case, saying Potanina was delighted and now hoped the matter could be “resolved without further delay.”

8

8

Russian President Vladimir Putin said Tuesday that President Trump’s administration is listening to the Kremlin’s justifications for its invasion of neighboring Ukraine and claimed that Moscow and Washington have come to a “mutual understanding” about the conflict.

Putin said during a visit to China that “the [Trump] administration is listening to us,” as he complained that former President Biden paid Moscow’s arguments no heed.

“Now we see this mutual understanding; it’s noticeable,” Putin said at a bilateral meeting with pro-Russian Slovak President Robert Fico after talks with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Beijing. “We are very happy about this and hope this constructive dialogue will continue.”

But Russia faces possible punitive actions by Trump, who has expressed frustration at Putin’s lack of engagement in U.S.-led peace efforts and threatened unspecified “severe consequences.” The American president has made ending the three-year war one of his diplomatic priorities and hosted Putin at a summit in Alaska last month.

Putin attended the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in the Chinese city of Tianjin with Xi and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who are also facing pressure from Trump. The SCO started out as a security forum viewed as a foil to U.S. influence in Central Asia, but it has grown in influence over the years.

After the summit, the Russian leader held talks with Xi in Beijing, and on Wednesday he was to attend a massive military parade there commemorating the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II.

In Beijing, Putin struck an apparently amenable tone about possible progress in some aspects of the discussions to stop the fighting, although his comments reflected no substantial change in Russia’s position. Western leaders have accused Putin of marking time in peace efforts while Russia’s bigger army seeks to overwhelm Ukrainian defenses.

On the key issue of possible postwar security guarantees for Ukraine to deter another Russian invasion, Putin said: “It seems to me that there is an opportunity to find consensus.” He didn’t elaborate.

While Putin reiterated that Moscow will not accept membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization for Ukraine, he also noted that he had never objected to Ukraine joining the European Union.

He also said Russia “can work with our American partners” at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, Europe’s largest and one of the 10 biggest atomic power plants in the world. Its fate has been a central concern of the war due to fears of a nuclear accident.

Putin said Russia could also work with Ukraine on the Zaporizhzhia question — “if favorable conditions arise.”

Fico said he planned to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Friday in the Ukrainian city of Uzhorod, which lies on the border with Slovakia, to talk about Ukraine’s attacks on Russian energy infrastructure.

Slovakia and Hungary, which refuse to provide arms to Ukraine, condemned recent strikes by Ukrainian troops against Russian oil infrastructure, namely the Druzhba oil pipeline. The two countries, as well as the Czech Republic, are exempt from a European Union ban on importing Russian oil, which they rely on.

Fico told Putin he wants to normalize relations and develop business ties with Russia while continuing to import Russian oil and natural gas.

Sept. 1 (UPI) — Australian police on Monday arrested a man accused of driving an SUV into the gates of Sydney’s Russian consulate, according to authorities and Russian officials.

Russia’s Consulate General, located on Fullerton Street in Sydney, confirmed the crash in a statement on Telegram, stating the incident occurred at about 8:05 a.m. AEST.

It said the driver had parked the SUV so as to block access to the premises and refused police orders to exit the vehicle. He then “deliberately rammed the gates” of the mission, it said.

No consulate general employees reported injuries and operations continued as normal, the consulate added.

“Thanks to the coordinated actions of the competent Australian authorities, the intruder was promptly neutralized,” the consulate general said.

“He has been arrested and is providing testimony regarding the motives for his actions.”

New South Wales Police identified the driver in a statement as a 39-year-old man.

He has been charged with a slew of offenses, including three counts of damaging property, three counts of resisting arrest and possession of a knife in a public space.

No motive was mentioned.

Police said the suspect had parked the SUV in the consulate’s driveway, then jumped the mission’s fence and entered the consulate grounds before re-entering his vehicle.

After police attempted to speak to the man, he allegedly “accelerated the vehicle — ramming the front gate of the property — causing significant damage.”

The suspect was then removed from the vehicle, arrested and transported to the Surry Hills Police Station, it said.

Two constables — ages 22 and 25 — suffered minor injuries in the incident, NSW Police said, without specifying exactly how they were injured.

The suspect is to make his first court appearance Tuesday.

Russian tennis star Daniil Medvedev has been fined $42,500 by the U.S. Open for his actions during and immediately after his first-round loss to France’s Benjamin Bonzi on Sunday night in New York.

The total fines, issued by tournament referee Jake Garner, included $30,000 for unsportsmanlike conduct and another $12,500 for racket abuse.

With Medvedev facing match point in the third set, Bonzi missed on his first serve and was preparing for the second when a photographer appeared to mistakenly step onto the court.

Chair umpire Greg Allensworth announced that Bonzi would be given another chance at his first serve “because of the delay caused by an outside interference.”

Medvedev was not happy. The 2021 U.S. Open champion berated Allensworth at the chair and insulted him while leaning into a microphone to address the crowd. Even as he was walking back onto the court, Medvedev used arm gestures to encourage the crowd to continue expressing its displeasure with the decision, although he eventually motioned for the fans to calm down.

“I just expressed my emotions, my unhappiness with the decision,” Medvedev said later. “And then the crowd did what they did without me, without me asking them too much. And it was fun to witness.”

The disruption lasted for roughly six minutes. Medvedev ended up winning that point and set, then won the next set as well. Bonzi recovered in the fifth set for a 6-3, 7-5, 6-7 (5), 0-6, 6-4 win, after which Medvedev was seen repeated destroying a racket by smashing it on the court and against a sideline chair.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.