This Valentine’s Day, chocolate comes with new risks | Opinions
This Valentine’s Day, chocolate prices are no longer at last year’s peak, but cheap chocolate has not made a comeback, and it probably never will. Last year’s cocoa price crisis, driven by a combination of extreme heat, drought and disease in key producing regions, may have eased. But the aftertaste remains: A market that no longer behaves the way it used to, because the landscapes that grow cocoa are no longer the same. And the world’s unwitting appetite for cheap chocolate at the expense of biodiversity is part of the reason.
Cocoa is one of the most rainfall-dependent crops in the tropics, grown mainly by smallholders with few safety nets. Because cocoa production is concentrated in a handful of regions, a bad season in one place can quickly ripple across global supply. That fragility was laid bare in 2024, when the Ivory Coast and Ghana, which produce nearly 60 percent of the world’s cocoa, were hit by climate extremes that slashed harvests. Prices surged by more than 300 percent, squeezing some farmers, enriching others, and leaving consumers paying for the uncertainty.
The problem is not simply that cocoa is vulnerable. It is that we have built a cocoa economy that magnifies the vulnerability. For decades, the world has chased low prices and high output, and too often that has meant converting forest landscapes into farmland, from West Africa to parts of Latin America and Southeast Asia.
But forests are not optional. They regulate rainfall, protect soils, and create the microclimates on which cocoa depends. Full-sun cocoa farms can produce higher yields in the short term, but the sugar rush is followed by a costly crash: Depleted soils, limited protection from heat and drought that is on the increase, and little for farmers to fall back on when the monocrops fail. Yields fall, farms expand deeper into forests to compensate, and the cycle repeats.
This is why cocoa’s price volatility is not a temporary blip. It is a warning sign: We are weakening the natural systems cocoa depends on at the same moment that climate change is making harvests less reliable.
Research by the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) shows how extreme heat undermines agriculture, reducing both the quantity and quality of crop yields and increasing pest and disease pressure. A recent study modelling cocoa under mid-century climate change finds that warming could wipe out as much as a third to half of today’s suitable cocoa area in some core producing zones, while shifting production towards new regions. Without safeguards, that transition risks trading climate stress in one place for forest loss in another. The details will vary across regions, but the implication is global: As climate change alters weather patterns, the geography of cocoa production will shift, and a stable supply will become harder to take for granted.
Unless we build resilience now, future Valentine’s Days may come with less chocolate and higher prices.
But we can eat our chocolate and keep forests too, by changing how cocoa is grown. It starts with bringing trees back to cocoa farms, reversing the damaging practices that are ultimately undermining production. Change can be made through climate-resilient agroforestry practices that rebuild shade cover, improve soil health and moisture retention, and reduce cocoa’s exposure to heat and drought. Cocoa grown under shade trees can stabilise farm conditions and support biodiversity, while producing higher-quality beans that meet premium market standards, giving farmers stronger incentives to maintain tree cover rather than clear more land.
Sceptics argue that growing cocoa with trees means accepting lower yields. But when it comes to unsustainable practices, high productivity today comes with a high cost tomorrow. A farm that exhausts its soil, loses shade, is exposed to drought, and needs ever more chemical inputs to maintain production is not a success story. It is a trap.
In a changing climate, the point is not how much cocoa a farm can produce in a year, but how reliably it can produce year after year. That requires resilience built into the landscape, now more than ever: More tree cover, healthier soils, and diversified farm systems that protect livelihoods when climate extremes hit.
This is not theoretical. It is already happening.
In Ecuador’s Amazon province of Napo, a project financed by the Global Environment Facility (GEF) and supported with technical assistance from the FAO has helped strengthen a sustainable cocoa value chain built around the traditional Chakra agroforestry system used by Kichwa communities. Put simply, it is cocoa grown as part of a forest garden: Kichwa women known as Chakramamas help steward these farms, cultivating cocoa under shade trees alongside a diverse mix of other crops and native plants, rather than clearing land for a single crop. Recognised by FAO as a Globally Important Agricultural Heritage System, the model is still expanding more than a decade on, helping Indigenous producer families earn more from premium cocoa through stronger processing, marketing, and partnerships with high-value buyers. High-end chocolatiers continue to source from Chakra producers, showing that cocoa grown alongside trees can deliver world-class quality while keeping forests standing for biodiversity, climate and land benefits.
There are more examples. In the Ivory Coast, FAO-backed efforts supported by the Green Climate Fund are already delivering results, restoring 1,084 hectares (2,679 acres) of degraded land and converting 3,527 hectares (8,715 acres) of conventional cocoa into improved agroforestry systems while reducing pressure on forests. Meanwhile, 234 farmers now have access to cocoa cooperatives, ensuring access to international fair-trade and organic certifications and a better price for their products. In Sao Tome and Principe, FAO has supported cocoa agroforestry through the GEF-funded Restoration Initiative, helping restore nearly 10,000 hectares (about 25,000 acres) of forest and improve land management across a further 23,000 hectares (about 57,000 acres). These are not boutique experiments. They are working models for stabilising supply, supporting farmer incomes, and reducing the forest loss that fuels cocoa’s growing volatility.
But projects alone will not be enough. Scaling them will take serious investment: From governments, companies, and consumers. It will also require rules that shift incentives across the entire cocoa economy, such as a new European Union law that requires cocoa and chocolate entering the EU market to be deforestation-free. By tying market access to how cocoa is grown, these rules are pushing governments, producers, and companies to rethink production models, improve traceability, and strengthen zero-deforestation cocoa systems.
Governments will also need to invest in farmer adaptation and long-term productivity, not just short-term output. That means accessible finance, practical support on farms, and policies that reward sustainable production instead of expansion into forests.
And chocolate companies need to promote resilience across their supply chains, not just chase volume. In a world of climate disruption, the cheapest cocoa is not necessarily the best bargain if it comes at the expense of farmers’ livelihoods or the ecosystems that keep cocoa viable in the years to come.
Paying farmers for chocolate that keeps forests standing is not a luxury. It is part of what makes cocoa more available and keeps farmers in business in a warming world. Chocolate is sold as a simple pleasure, but cocoa is no longer a simple crop: Its future depends on whether we treat forests and biodiversity as essential infrastructure for stable and resilient agrifood systems.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.
