retakes

The internationally recognised government of Yemen says its forces have taken full control of the south from the separatist Southern Transitional Council (STC), which was aligned with the Saudi-backed government until recently.

“As the president of the country and the high commander of the armed forces, I want to assure you of the recapture of Hadramout and al-Mahra,” Rashad al-Alimi, the head of the Presidential Leadership Council (PLC), said on Saturday.

Last month, Saudi Arabia intervened militarily in support of the PLC after the STC captured the two border provinces, which Riyadh said was a threat to its national security. The STC along with the PLC fought against the Houthis, who control northwest of Yemen, including the capital Sanaa.

On Friday, the STC was dissolved, and its leader, Aidarous al-Zubaidi, fled the country after forces loyal to the PLC took control of most of the south and eastern Yemen.

The future of the STC, which is backed by the United Arab Emirates, remains uncertain amid internal divisions and the exile of its leader.

Saudi Arabia is now planning to host a conference of the main political factions from the south to shape the future of Yemen.

So what’s the latest political and security situation in Yemen, and what are the challenges in uniting Yemen?

What did the PLC chief al-Alimi say?

In his televised address on Saturday, al-Alimi called on all parties to unite ranks to restore state institutions.

He announced the formation of a Supreme Military Committee, which has been tasked with preparing military forces for the next phase of the conflict and readying them if the Houthis reject peaceful solutions.

The Yemeni leader warned armed groups to surrender their weapons and rejoin the ranks of the state, underlining “the importance of strengthening security, protecting social peace and working closely with the [governing] coalition and the international community to combat terrorism”.

He accused the Houthis of refusing to engage in dialogue and blamed the Iran-linked group for prolonging Yemen’s suffering because of their “coup against constitutional legitimacy”.

“South Yemen has for the first time in 10 years one political and military authority. No more military factions, no more divisions over ethnic and sectarian lines for the time being. There is going to be one Supreme Military Committee under the control of President Al-Alimi,” Al Jazeera’s Hashem Ahelbarra said, reporting from Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

“Rashad al-Alimi has told the Houthis that they have two options: negotiate a settlement or face repercussions, including the potential for a military offensive,” he said.

Al-Alimi is a successor of Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi, the leader of a United Nations-backed government who was evicted by the Houthis in 2014. The Houthis insist they are the legitimate authority across Yemen and do not recognise the PLC, which was formed in 2022.

“Now the PLC, backed by Saudi Arabia, is reforming institutions, disbanding STC institutions, and they are saying that their focus in the near future would be confrontation with the Houthis,” Ahelbarra said.

The president said the issue of self-determination in southern Yemen would remain a top priority, backing a southern dialogue conference under Saudi Arabia’s sponsorship.

What’s the status of the STC?

As the Saudi-backed military campaign against STC forces intensified in Hadramout and al-Mahra provinces, the southern separatist movement announced plans to hold a referendum on independence from the north on January 2.

But days later, the southern separatist force suffered major territorial losses at the hands of the PLC forces, who expanded their control over most of southern Yemen, where the STC had sway for more than a decade. The group’s now-exiled leader remains defiant, but some of its other leaders have switched loyalties.

On Friday, STC Secretary-General Abdulrahman Jalal al-Subaihi said in a broadcast on Yemeni television that the dissolution of the group was taken to preserve peace and security in the south and in neighbouring countries.

He praised “the measures taken by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the solutions it has provided that meet the needs of the people of the South”.

However, STC spokesman Anwar al-Tamimi, who is in Abu Dhabi, rejected the announcement coming out of Saudi Arabia, calling it “ridiculous news”.

On Saturday, thousands of STC supporters poured onto the streets of Aden, the capital of anti-Houthi forces in southern Yemen.

“The STC members who joined Riyadh say they are waiting to see what happens next when it comes to details of the Riyadh conference,” Ahelbarra said, referring to talks between the PLC and STC in the Saudi capital.

“I think the consensus is that everybody is willing to talk about federal system, some sort of autonomy. But the very notion of separatism is over.

“Will people in the south willing to accept the notion of autonomy or federalism, that remains to be seen,” he said.

The disenfranchisement of southern Yemen after the region was merged with the north to form a united Yemen in 1990 has also been one of the grievances.

“Al-Alimi said these are genuine concerns which are going to be taken into account at the conference. Whether he will be able to address some of those concerns remains to be seen,” the Al Jazeera correspondent said. The date of the conference is yet to be announced.

Since its formation in 2017, the STC’s goal has been separation from the rest of Yemen. Two years later, it took control of Aden and other areas in the south from the Yemeni government.

Al-Zubaidi later joined the PLC as vice president, but he continued to nurse the ambition for a “two-state solution” as STC fighters continued to expand their control in the south, weakening the fight against the Houthis.

The current conflict was triggered after the STC forces captured Hadramout and al-Mahra, drawing the Saudi intervention.

Al-Zubaidi has since been removed from his post as a PLC member, stripped of his immunity, and charged with “high treason” and “inciting internal strife”.

The Saudi military said in a statement on Thursday that al-Zubaidi fled by boat to Somalia and then flew to Abu Dhabi.

What happened in recent weeks?

In November, a Saudi-backed umbrella group of tribes from the Hadramout region seized the PetroMasila oil facility, seeking a bigger share of oil revenues and an improvement of services for Hadramout residents.

The STC used the seizure as a pretext for advancing in Hadramout and al-Mahra. These two regions hold nearly all of Yemen’s oil reserves.

Tensions soared after Saudi-backed forces attacked the Yemeni port city of Mukalla in the south, alleging incoming shipments of arms from the UAE for the STC.

The UAE said it had been surprised by the Saudi air strikes and the shipments in question did not contain weapons and were destined for Emirati forces, not the STC.

Less than two weeks later, Yemen’s Saudi-backed government had taken control of the south and east of the country from STC forces.

Hesham Alghannam, a Saudi scholar with the Malcolm H Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center, said the kingdom’s move “made it very clear” that it views Yemen’s eastern provinces, especially Hadramout, as a “core national security matter”.

Riyadh views the region as critical, Alghannam said, because of its geography and strategic oil and port assets. “From Riyadh’s view, losing influence there would be more than a local setback,” he told Al Jazeera. “It would create a major security gap. It would weaken energy resilience and open space for hostile or competing powers to position themselves directly south of the kingdom.”

The Saudi-backed governing coalition then asked the UAE to withdraw its forces from Yemen within 24 hours.

The UAE withdrew all its “counterterrorism” units from Yemen. The UAE’s Ministry of Defence said it carried out a “comprehensive assessment” of its role in Yemen and decided to end its mission there.

The episode has strained ties between Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

What next?

The STC will find it hard to bounce back without military support from the UAE while many of its leaders have shown a willingness to participate in the Saudi-led dialogue.

However, it is believed to still hold influence in the region.

Abdulaziz Alghashian, an adjunct professor at Naif Arab University, said the dissolution of the STC was inevitable.

“I think the legacy of the STC has now become just too poisonous. I think the recent developments have just illustrated the fact that there is probably no goodwill for the STC to be part of a genuine political process,” Alghashian told Al Jazeera.

“The dissolution of the STC suggests clearly there is a clear restructuring of the political process within Yemen. And the political framework that Saudi Arabia is trying to work with is also being redeveloped and restructured in a manner that creates a lot of confidence for Saudi to get involved in,” he said.

But some experts said the Saudi goal of a united Yemen would be difficult to achieve due to southern divisions and the Houthis’ control of northwest Yemen.

Yousef Mawry, a journalist based in Sanaa, said Yemen’s conflict will shift from the south to the north and a showdown is expected between PLC forces and the Houthis.

He added that both sides believe in a unified Yemeni state but each side believes they are the ones who should be ruling over the affairs of both the north and the south.

“The big question: Is there a common ground that al-Alimi’s government and the Houthis can agree on?” he said.

“The Houthis believe that al-Alimi’s government is nothing but a Saudi proxy that is working on behalf of the US and Saudi interests over Yemeni land. Al-Alimi has pointed fingers at the Houthis, accusing them of being an Iranian proxy,” he told Al Jazeera.

The Saudi-led military coalition, which included the UAE, intervened in support of Hadi’s UN-recognised government in 2015 but failed to defeat the Houthis. The war ended in a deadlock with the Houthis still in control of Sanaa and the regions around it.

Saudi Arabia and the Houthis agreed to release prisoners and pledged not to attack each other’s territory. But the larger political questions remain to be resolved.

“What we are seeing is that al-Alimi is taking over full control of the south. Once they have full control, whatever political framework that works in, the Houthis are not going to accept it,” Mawry said.

There is mistrust between the two sides with the Houthis accusing the PLC of catering to the interests of foreign powers while the PLC accuses the Houthis of running Iranian propaganda. Saudi Arabia has historically maintained influence in its southern neighbour – Arab region’s poorest country. Houthis challenged Riyadh’s traditional role in the country.

Mawry fears the conflict will likely grow as both sides have drawn red lines. “They want full control of Yemen,” he said.