renewed

Oil prices have climbed towards their highest levels in five months as attacks on tankers in and around the Strait of Hormuz mount and efforts to end the United States-Israel war on Iran are deadlocked.

Brent crude, the international benchmark, rose by more than $2 to $110.85 a barrel on Wednesday, close to a five-month peak.

A day earlier, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said two tankers were “set ablaze” after hitting mines at what it called an illegal crossing point in the strait. Then, on Thursday, the IRGC said it hit seven more tankers although Washington dismissed the claim. In a statement, the IRGC said four of the vessels were transferring oil when they were targeted and caught fire overnight.

In September, the Houthis, an armed group also known as Ansar Allah (Arabic for Supporters of God), seized territory in Yemen close to the Bab al-Mandeb strait, a critical chokepoint into and out of the Red Sea and a gateway to Egypt’s Suez Canal.

The escalation came as the world’s emergency oil stocks, already tapped heavily since the Iran war began on February 28, sit at their lowest levels in decades.

Al Jazeera put a question to analysts: If fighting resumes in full, the Strait of Hormuz is shut off completely and Houthi attacks choke off Bab al-Mandeb, how long could the world’s reserves last?

Here’s what you need to know:

What emergency oil reserves are there?

Strategic oil reserves are stockpiles of crude oil and fuel held by governments or by companies on their behalf for use in a supply emergency.

The International Energy Agency (IEA), which was established in 1974 after the Arab oil embargo, coordinates most of them. Its importing members must hold at least 90 days of net imports. China and India are not members.

How much of the reserves has already been released this year?

A record amount.

On March 11, days after the start of the US-Israel war on Iran, the IEA’s 32 members agreed to make 400 million barrels available from emergency supplies, more than double the volume released after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

The US pledged 172.2 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) and Japan 79.8 million, according to IEA figures.

The SPR has since fallen to 283 million barrels, its lowest level since October 1982, according to the US Department of Energy.

Much of that oil was lent rather than sold and must be returned with extra barrels, according to the US Energy Information Administration.

How much oil is left?

Far less than before the war began in February, and not all of it can be used.

Aaron Kildow, a senior crude oil analyst at Sparta Commodities, told Al Jazeera that global strategic stocks excluding China and Iran have fallen by nearly 327 million barrels since the end of December 2025 with the US, Europe and Japan accounting for about 95 percent of the draw.

He estimated that leaves only about 400 million barrels of usable reserves worldwide, excluding China’s stockpile, which is unlikely to be exported, and Gulf stocks, which could be cut off by a total closure of Hormuz.

Nearly half of these available stocks are in Japan.

Europe has about 76 million barrels uncommitted, but members such as Germany are holding some back for a local emergency, Kildow said.

“Europe is the real wildcard, both on timing and willingness,” Kildow said.

Meanwhile, China’s onshore crude stocks stand at 1.13 billion barrels, down from 1.23 billion in late February but still enough for about 80 days of refinery intake, Muyu Xu, a senior crude oil analyst at the analytics firm Kpler, told Al Jazeera.

India’s reserves cover just eight days of its imports, the Reuters news agency reported.

What would a full closure of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb mean?

Before the war, about one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas supplies, or roughly 20 million barrels of oil a day, passed through the Strait of Hormuz.

Saudi Arabia has increased the amount of crude it transports from its oilfields in the east to its Red Sea port of Yanbu in the west via the East-West Pipeline, thereby bypassing Hormuz.

But there have been strikes on that pipeline, and tankers heading south from Yanbu must pass through Bab a-Mandeb, where the Iran-backed Houthis declared a blockade on Saudi shipping in July.

Only a confirmed 373,000 barrels a day of Saudi crude have transited Bab al-Mandeb so far this month, the lowest level since February, Xu said, with most Yanbu cargoes now heading north via Egypt instead.

If Hormuz were shut and the Houthis blocked all Saudi tankers, Gulf producers could export only through a few pipelines and Yanbu’s northbound route, Xu said.

That would leave about 7.5 million barrels a day of Middle Eastern crude, against 16.8 million now, a shortfall of about 9.3 million barrels a day, she estimated.

“If such attacks occur, the supply disruption could be even more severe and prolonged,” Xu said, referring to strikes on oilfields, terminals and pipelines.

So how long would reserves last?

Not for long – possibly just weeks, according to experts.

If Kpler’s estimated shortfall had to be covered entirely from the roughly 400 million usable barrels that Kildow identified, they could not, in practice, be released that fast. Japanese and South Korean reserves can move quickly, Kildow said, but US barrels are staged over three months, and Europe’s contribution is uncertain.

Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG Group, said the world was fortunate after the first closure. “The salient feature of March and beyond was how a crisis didn’t actually develop. We got away with it,” he said.

“I don’t think the global economy will be as lucky next time if there is a protracted conflict,” Beauchamp said. “A month or two is all we have.”

The world would not literally run out of oil. Instead, prices would rise until enough demand disappeared. “One hundred fifty dollars [per barrel] becomes a very distinct possibility, which then sees significant demand destruction,” Beauchamp said.

The sharpest squeeze would be on diesel, which is already nearly double the price of crude, the IEA said.

Refiners would compete for crude grades rich in diesel, “a cost that ultimately lands on consumers,” Kildow said.

Who would feel it first?

Asian importers with thin reserves.

Most Gulf exports in September and October went to Asian buyers, and India and Pakistan are among the most exposed, Kildow said, adding that their nearest alternative supply, from West Africa, is 25 to 28 days away by sea, compared with two days from Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates.

“The squeeze won’t hit uniformly. It lands fastest and hardest where reserves are thinnest and substitute supply is farthest away,” Kildow said.

Who would gain?

Oil producers far from the Gulf.

In the second quarter of this year, as the US-Iran war was under way, ExxonMobil reported earnings of $14.5bn, its highest in four years while Chevron posted $12bn, its best in six years and Shell more than doubled its earnings to nearly $10bn. Their profits are largely down to the high oil prices.

A second shock would send refiners scrambling for supplies from the US, Latin America, West Africa and Russia, Xu said.

“This would allow non-Middle Eastern producers to benefit from higher crude prices, potentially alongside lower transportation costs,” she said.

In August, US President Donald Trump said companies such as ExxonMobil and Chevron were “making too much money based on a shortage”.

Addis Ababa, Ethiopia – The capture of Tigray’s regional capital Mekelle by Ethiopian federal forces and allied Tigray Peace Force fighters has revived painful memories of the 2020–22 Tigray war, with residents fearing a return to prolonged violence, displacement and economic hardship.

The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) confirmed on Saturday that it had withdrawn from Mekelle, saying its regional administration would temporarily operate from another location. Government forces and allied fighters entered the city on Saturday, with a pro-government militia source, a humanitarian worker and a Mekelle resident confirming to the Reuters news agency on Sunday that they were in control of the city.

The development comes less than four years after the Ethiopian government and the TPLF signed the Pretoria agreement that ended two years of devastating fighting.

Berihu, a 32-year-old bajaj driver in Shire, northwestern Tigray, said the latest fighting had been particularly difficult to watch.

“I feel very heartbroken knowing that Tigray has gone back to full-scale war,” he said in a phone interview with Al Jazeera. “We have already seen what the last war did to our people, and now it feels like we are going through it all over again.”

The 2020–22 war killed hundreds of thousands of people, according to estimates, displaced millions and caused extensive damage to infrastructure and livelihoods.

The African Union-facilitated agreement, signed in Pretoria in November 2022, ended the large-scale fighting, but key issues, including the status of disputed territories, the return of displaced people and the disarmament of Tigrayan forces, remained unresolved.

In July, the TPLF said the Pretoria agreement had effectively collapsed, accusing the federal government of failing to implement key provisions. The federal government rejected that characterisation, saying it remained committed to the peace process while accusing the TPLF of undermining the agreement.

The political dispute was accompanied by growing military tensions, including reports of sporadic clashes and drone strikes in parts of Tigray. The two sides also traded accusations over troop movements and preparations for renewed fighting.

The capture of Mekelle marks a major development in the renewed conflict, putting the city once again at the centre of the fighting.

Fear spreads beyond Tigray

In Addis Ababa, the developments have also alarmed residents who remember the consequences of the previous war.

Abel, a 30-year-old shopkeeper, said the fighting had felt distant until explosions were heard in the capital.

“I woke up and heard that my city had been hit,” he said. “You hear about fighting in Tigray, and it feels far away. But when you hear about explosions in Addis Ababa, you start asking yourself what will happen next.”

Diplomatic sources said explosions were heard in several parts of the capital, including near the headquarters of Ethiopia’s military. Reuters separately reported that a source linked to an opposition alliance claimed the group had carried out drone strikes in Addis Ababa, including against military facilities. The claim could not be independently verified.

For Abel, the economic consequences are as concerning as the fighting itself.

“If the war becomes bigger, ordinary people will suffer,” he said.

Bisrat, a college student in Addis Ababa, said the overnight explosions had reinforced his fear that Ethiopia could be entering a much wider conflict.

“If Ethiopia goes into a full-scale war, ordinary people will suffer,” he said. “I fear seeing another Sudan.”

Sudan has been engulfed in war since April 2023, when fighting broke out between the army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, displacing millions and creating a major humanitarian crisis.

The current fighting also involves a wider set of actors than the Tigray war that ended in 2022. The TPLF is part of a broader opposition alliance that includes armed groups from several parts of the country.

Fighting has also spread into Afar, while relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea have sharply deteriorated.

Ethiopian officials have accused Eritrea of interfering in Ethiopia’s internal affairs and supporting forces opposed to the federal government. Eritrea has rejected the accusations.

On Thursday, Ethiopia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced the closure of its embassy in Asmara and declared 10 Eritrean diplomats persona non grata, saying they had been involved in activities that posed a threat to Ethiopia’s national security.

Eritrea subsequently announced that it was severing diplomatic relations with Ethiopia.

The diplomatic rupture has added to concerns that the renewed fighting could acquire a wider regional dimension.

Mekelle changes hands again

In Mekelle, residents were left trying to understand what comes next after the TPLF withdrawal.

Goitom, 37, said there was a period of uncertainty after TPLF forces left the city, with what he described as a security vacuum allowing theft in some areas, including government offices.

“On Friday night, we were hearing gunfire but did not know what was happening,” he said.

By Saturday, Ethiopian federal forces and allied fighters had taken control of key locations, including the airport, according to Goitom. Reuters and The Associated Press news agency also reported that government-aligned forces had entered Mekelle following the TPLF withdrawal.

“It feels like we are back to square one,” he said. “We have already seen what war can do to this city and to our families. People are worried about what will happen next.”

The TPLF, however, portrayed the withdrawal as a tactical decision rather than an end to the fighting.

In a statement issued on Saturday, the group said it had “temporarily moved out of Mekelle” and that the regional government would “operate from somewhere else”. It said the decision was intended to prevent further destruction in the city and indicated that its forces would continue the conflict from other positions.

For the federal government, the capture of Mekelle represents a significant step towards restoring federal control over the region.

Abraham Belay, former president of the Tigray Interim Administration, said on Sunday that preparations were under way to establish a new interim administration in Tigray, with the aim of holding regional elections within months.

“We are working to establish a new administrative structure that will enable the people of Tigray to govern themselves,” Abraham said in an interview with Fana Broadcasting Corporate.

He said new administrative structures would be organised from the kebele level upwards, with community participation, before regional elections were held.

The competing accounts leave the next phase of the conflict uncertain. The federal government says it is seeking to restore its authority and establish a new regional administration, while the TPLF says its forces will continue fighting from elsewhere.

Civilian fears return to the fore

For people who lived through the previous war, the return of fighting has brought back fears of displacement, destruction and another prolonged humanitarian crisis.

Berihu, the bajaj driver, said he had seen villages bombed and civilians caught up in the fighting during the previous conflict, experiences that have shaped his fears about what could follow.

“It is painful to even think that civilians could once again bear the cost,” he said.

After years of displacement, loss and disruption, he said, many people in Tigray simply want the fighting to stop.

“We have already suffered enough,” Berihu said. “We just want peace. We don’t want to go through the same thing again.”