primed

This time last year, Antelope Reef was mostly submerged underwater and barely visible unless you were steaming past at low tide. New satellite imagery, provided to TWZ by Vantor, showcases what the People’s Republic of China (PRC) can construct after 10 months of nonstop dredging: a nearly 1,500-acre artificial island with a deep-water port, 2,000-plus-foot quay capable of berthing warships, and the beginnings of a 10,000-foot-long military-grade runway. Hardly recognizable today, Antelope Reef has become the latest, and one of the largest, man-made outposts in Beijing’s aggressive campaign to militarize and dominate the South China Sea.

The “first phase” of construction is now complete, according to a report from Reuters, following the departure of a fleet of dredgers that have been on station for months. Vantor, a spatial intelligence company, shared the images, dated August 11, with TWZ that show the results of the rapid transformation in detail, which you can view in high resolution below.

Reports surfaced in early 2026 about unusual PRC activity around the reef, which is located in the northwest part of the South China Sea, approximately 160 nautical miles (nm) south of Hainan, China, and 200 nm east of Da Nang, Vietnam. The fleet of PRC cutter-suction dredgers appeared late last year, assembling at the Zhujiang River Estuary and transiting with their Automatic Identification System (AIS) transponders dark to avoid unwanted attention. Once on the scene, they began working around the clock to move sand from the seabed to create ground above.

The pace of construction and rate of change have been staggering, and show how much progress the PRC has made in its reclamation and land-building capabilities. In less than a year, the PRC dredged more than a million tons of sand to reclaim approximately 1,500 acres of land. The teardrop-shaped island is now 3.7 miles long, surrounded by seawalls and internal roads, with ongoing construction underway at three primary locations around the lagoon – which you can see marked on the graphic above. For comparison, construction of the artificial islands in the Spratly Islands, more than a decade ago, took several years.

Antelope Reef, or Lingyang Jiao to the Chinese and Đá Hải Sâm to the Vietnamese, is part of the Crescent archipelago in the Paracel Island chain. China has occupied the Paracels since 1974, but the territory is still disputed by Vietnam and Taiwan.

In the latest satellite imagery from Vantor, several notable features are discernible and were first identified by the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative (AMTI). On the northwest side, preparations are being made for what will likely eventually be a 10,000-foot-long, 180-foot-wide runway, similar to those built at Fiery Cross, Subi Reef, Mischief Reef, and Woody Island. The northwest edge of the island is the only area long enough to accommodate a runway capable of landing large military and commercial aircraft, and grading appears to be about halfway complete – but no concrete has been poured yet. AMTI also identified excavation for a 200-by-200-foot structure nearby, which mirrors the footprint of the large aircraft hangars at China’s other island-airfields.

On the southern part of the island, a 680-meter – roughly 2,200 feet – quay where both military and civilian ships can dock inside the lagoon is clearly visible. Reuters noted that a China Coast Guard (CCG) vessel was spotted dockside at the quay recently. The east side of the island, just below the channel entrance, hosts the only part of the base in active use, with green space areas, a helicopter pad, and parking lots, as well as buildings for administrative spaces and housing. Temporary piers are visible at each of the major points. Two concrete plants, located along the northwestern and southern edges of the lagoon, are supporting construction efforts. TWZ has not independently confirmed AMTI’s assessments.

According to PRC state media, Antelope will be used for commercial and civilian purposes – a similar tale told during construction of the other military outposts while they were being developed. It’s worth noting that in 2015, Chinese President Xi Jinping stood in the Rose Garden next to then-President Barack Obama and said, “China does not intend to pursue militarization” in the South China Sea. “Relevant construction activity that China is undertaking in the Nansha Islands does not target or impact any country and there is no intention to militarize,” he claimed, using the Chinese name for the disputed Spratly Islands. Since Xi’s head fake, which epitomizes the notorious PRC “say-do” gap, Beijing has built up multiple artificial islands as military bases, and has used them to press its territorial claims and confront its neighbors across the nine-dash line, in strict defiance of the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).

Antelope Reef sits in a key strategic location south of Sanya Port and Yulin Naval Base on Hainan Island, home to two of the three People’s Liberation Army Navy’s (PLAN) aircraft carriers, CNS Shandong and CNS Fujian, as well as a significant submarine force at Longpo Naval Base. A military base there could extend PLA radar and electronic surveillance coverage, add another dispersed airfield to the PLA’s rolodex to launch sorties from and an additional port to dock ships at, and further expand China’s sweeping air defense umbrella.

The constellation of artificial islands would be instrumental in enforcing total control over the South China Sea, serving as key anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) nodes. They act as logistical and persistent surveillance nodes, among other uses, today, and the more that China has dispersed throughout the South China Sea, the greater its options are as well as the credibility of its anti-access capabilities.

“I have no doubt that this marginally benefits China in that it’ll be able to forward deploy more Coast Guard and more militia in the Paracels persistently. It will, I’m sure, facilitate more persistent aerial patrols,” Greg Poling, the senior fellow who oversees AMTI, said on the Why Should We Care About the Indo-Pacific podcast earlier this year. “But the main benefit is probably the ISR [Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance] component; the ground-based sensing you get just building stuff.”

Beijing’s land grab in the South China Sea shows no signs of slowing down, and Antelope Reef marks the latest in a decades-long string of island seizures that it can leverage during a potential dustup in the future. But whether it will eventually run out of islands to claim remains unclear. “China doesn’t have a lot left to dig,” according to Poling, “so unless China plans to seize another island, I don’t see it building anything, at least anything substantial.”

Contact the author: ian.ellis-jones@recurrent.io

Welcome back to the Times of Troy newsletter, where USC baseball’s charmed season came to a devastating end in the bottom of the ninth of a decisive Super Regional matchup with North Carolina on Sunday. But no matter how brutal it may have been in the moment — with black-stained tears streaming down Trojan cheeks in Chapel Hill — the fact that USC was in position to have its heart broken at all is a testament to what Andy Stankiewicz has built in his four seasons at the helm.

It was barely a year ago that I sat with Stankiewicz in an unfinished concrete dugout at new Dedeaux Field, discussing the importance of building a foundation for a program that had lacked one for so long. The metaphor wrote itself at the time. His team was on the cusp of clinching its first NCAA berth in a decade, just as its new stadium was finally rounding into form. But as triumphant as that tournament invite would be when it finally happened, Stankiewicz was already thinking bigger.

“We want to build this thing for the long haul,” he said then. “And to build a home, you have to build a strong foundation so it can withstand the weather. The same thing applies here. I want to be here for a long time. This is where I grew up. This is where I’d love to be.”

A year later, the foundation hasn’t just been built. The house is finished. The front door is open. All that’s left is for the Trojans to walk through it.

They had their chance Sunday in Chapel Hill. Andrew Johnson twirled another postseason gem. The Trojan bats, again, delivered in big moments, with clutch solo shots from Kevin Takeuchi and Andrew Lamb. Through 8.2 innings, USC had given up just a single run.

But the bullpen, which had been one of the Trojans’ few weak points all season, couldn’t finish the job. Sax Matson came in for just a single pitch and was pulled. Adam Troy faced three batters, walked one who scored and was pulled in the middle of a 3-0 count for another. Chase Herrell faced four batters after that, walked one and gave up two other hits, including the walk-off winner.

Just two outs stood between the Trojans and a trip to Omaha. At one point, all they had to do was catch a fouled pop fly to send the game to extras.

“That was a tough one,” Stankiewicz said after. “As best we can, we’re gonna move forward. But again, I got some disappointed young men in our dugout. As the head coach, you think, ‘Dang it, what could I have done differently?’”

Surely, the Trojans coach might be thinking all season about how close his team was to reaching that next rung as a program. The truth, though, is it’s a wonder they got here this fast in the first place. USC won 48 games, its most in a quarter century. It had to climb its way back from the loser’s bracket in its regional, then, on the road in Chapel Hill, it took one of the national title favorites to the brink.

Not only that, but USC rose to that level in a still-unfinished stadium, without anything resembling the NIL firepower that other college baseball teams, particularly in the SEC and ACC, are wielding. USC has tried to make up for that by funding more scholarships, but when other teams are handing kids hundreds of thousands more in NIL offers, it makes competing with the Joneses especially difficult.

Stankiewicz has managed to make it work, anyway. And as more talent rolls into Troy, there’s every reason to believe that we’ll look back on this moment, not as a devastating end, but the start of something particularly special for USC baseball.

“We got to the finals of the Regional last year. Now the finals of a Super Regional,” Stankiewicz said. “We’re not going away.”

Calling all questions …

With the summer here and college sports now on hold for the next two months, it’s a perfect time to answer any questions you have about the upcoming year at USC. So please send anything on your mind about Trojan sports to ryan.kartje@latimes.com. When the newsletter returns in a couple of weeks, I’ll answer the best ones in this space.

USC pitcher Andrew Johnson.

(Laura Wolff / For The Times)

—A standing ovation for Johnson, whose pitching performance through the postseason was nothing short of Herculean. Johnson spent most of the season as the Trojans’ forgotten No. 3 option in the rotation, with Mason Edwards and Grant Govel ranking among the best pitchers in the nation. But it was Johnson who came up the biggest in the postseason. Twice he pitched well in relief, only to throw seven-plus innings two days later. This felt like a breakthrough moment for Johnson, who should pair with Govel to give USC an outstanding 1-2 punch on Fridays and Saturdays next season.

—There’s been talk about alternate jerseys at USC over the last several years. The conversation about alternates actually dates back to before Jennifer Cohen took over as athletic director. But as was the case before, the conversation has been tabled for the time being. Athletic departments are always looking for added revenue these days, but the juice just hasn’t been worth the squeeze to date, considering the many fans that would surely be offended by changes to the Trojans’ classic uniforms.

Olympic sports spotlight

After going on a tear to close out the season, USC women’s golf was on the precipice of snagging the school’s second national title this year … before it ran into a buzzsaw in No. 1 Stanford.

But an NCAA runner-up finish is still a great result for a program that hasn’t won an NCAA title since 2013. The Trojans have now finished second six times in their past 38 seasons, which is to say they’ve been the runner-ups basically 15% of the time over the last four decades.

That’s a lot of years being the bridesmaid, not the bride. But there’s no reason to think that Justin Silverstein, the Big Ten’s Coach of the Year in 2026, shouldn’t have this program back in the mix as soon as next season.

What I’m Watching This Week

Matthew Rhys and Stephen Root in “Widow’s Bay.”

(Apple)

If you’re in the mood for something creepy, boy do I have the content for you. “Widow’s Bay” on Apple TV follows Mayor Tom Loftis, played by Matthew Rhys, who’s desperate to revive his struggling island community of Widow’s Bay. But the locals on the island are convinced the town is cursed, and don’t necessarily approve of bringing tourists into the mix.

As you might imagine, the locals appear to be right. And Loftis finds himself in some horrifying situations. Enough to convince me that maybe this isn’t the best show to be watching alone, late at night. But if that’s in your wheelhouse, then this is as good as it gets.

In case you missed it

USC’s College World Series hopes shattered in heartbreaking loss to North Carolina

Q&A: As costs rise, AD Jennifer Cohen says USC is well-positioned amid college sports chaos

Ed Orgeron is returning to LSU as member of old USC pal Lane Kiffin’s staff

Until next time …

That concludes today’s newsletter. If you have any feedback, ideas for improvement or things you’d like to see, email me at ryan.kartje@latimes.com, and follow me on X at @Ryan_Kartje. To get this newsletter in your inbox, click here.