potential

Finland’s Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen speaks to Talk to Al Jazeera about the prospects for a Russia-Ukraine peace deal, whether Trump can bring Putin and Zelenskyy to the negotiating table, and why Europe insists on clear red lines. From frozen Russian assets to NATO deterrence and Finland’s unique position as a NATO member sharing a long border with Russia, Valtonen explains what a realistic settlement would require, and why she believes Moscow is still not interested in genuine peace.

Iran states it has more missiles now than it had during the 12 Day War with Israel. While the accuracy of that claim is questionable, experts who follow Tehran’s missile program say that the country has ramped up production in an effort to have its arsenal ready to overwhelm Israeli missile defenses, which were degraded during the war. All this comes amid growing concerns about a new conflict over Iran’s nuclear program.

“Our missile power today far surpasses that of the 12-Day War,” Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi recently proclaimed. “The enemy in the recent 12-day war failed to achieve all its objectives and was defeated.”

“Iran’s defense production has improved both in quantity and quality compared to before the 12-day Israeli-imposed war in June,” Brig. Gen. Aziz Nasirzadeh, the country’s defense minister, said on Monday.

Meanwhile, Iranian officials have told Ali Vaez, the Iran project director at the International Crisis Group, that “missile factories are working 24 hours a day,” The New York Times reported. Vaez added that if there is another war, “they hope to fire 2,000 at once to overwhelm Israeli defenses, not 500 over 12 days” as they did in June. “Israel feels the job is unfinished and sees no reason not to resume the conflict, so Iran is doubling down preparedness for the next round.”

While “it’s not clear exactly how many missiles in a larger volley the Islamic Republic may choose to fire, there is no doubt that they may still try to find a way to overwhelm either interceptors or dependent sites with a greater number of projectiles fired at once,” Vaez added.

In addition to increasing the number of missiles it is producing, Iran is also applying lessons learned from the 12-Day War to improve their effectiveness, Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) think tank, told TWZ.

“The Islamic Republic also learned how to fire less and get more bang for your buck based on the targets and based on the location and based on the firing sequence, or the launch formula, that the regime employed when it fired for some bases that were further east in Iran during the 12-Day War,” he explained. “There is no doubt the regime wants to improve the lethality of its missile force. It certainly has learned a lot between Operation True Promise One, True Promise Two and True Promise Three.”

During the conflict, Iran claimed it used what it calls the Fattah-1 medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM). Authorities in Iran explicitly touted those, the Haj Qassem and Kheibar Shekan, as offering high terminal maneuverability and/or high speeds specifically intended to reduce their vulnerability to missile defense interceptors. You can see videos claiming to show Fattah-1 missiles hitting Israel.

While it is unclear exactly what mix of new missiles Iran is building, increasing the production of higher-speed, more survivable ones would be a problem for Israel, given their increased ability to pierce missile defenses.

Improving the overall effectiveness of their ballistic missile barrages is clearly a top priority for Tehran, just as defending against future attacks is for Israel. As we previously noted, Iran launched 631 missiles during the 12-Day War, of which 500 reached Israel, according to assertions made by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). Of those missiles that did land on Israeli soil, 243 hit open areas, requiring no air defense response. A total of 36 missiles hit populated areas, while 221 missiles were intercepted. That represented an 86% success rate, the Israeli analysis claimed. We cannot independently verify the details provided by Israel.

Still, having to fire so many interceptors placed a huge strain on Israel’s vaunted integrated air and missile defense system (IADS), according to several published reports, which the IDF denied. The U.S. expended many advanced interceptors during the onslaught, as well.

“U.S. and Israeli defenses were stretched thin and vast numbers of interceptors were needed to defend against Iran’s ragged retaliation,” the Foreign Policy Research Institute concluded.

Beyond interceptions, Israel managed to destroy a significant number of Iran’s launchers during its aerial interdiction campaign over Iran, as well as temporarily blocking or destroying missile storage sites, and disrupting command and control of Iranian missile forces during the war, greatly reducing Tehran’s ability to get off shots. It is unknown how many missiles were destroyed on the ground during the war and how many were left untouched.

“Iran also has learned about its vulnerabilities, and it is seeking to build back better, as safely as possible,” Taleblu suggested. “But the rate and the speed at which it rebuilds, probably in the short term, may outpace the rate and the speed at which Israel is rearming to defend itself.”

We detailed the overall battle of attrition between Iranian standoff weapons and Israeli (and U.S.) air defenses during the war. What is happening after the conflict is part of a broader issue with missile defense — the enemy can, and usually does, seek to outproduce the defensive capacity of the missile shield, and usually can at a lower comparative cost.

You can read more about Israel’s IADS in our deep dive here.

Iranian officials say concerns about their missiles, as well as their nuclear energy program, are being used as a pretext for possible future attacks.

“What does this issue have to do with the West that it feels entitled to comment on the range of Iran’s missiles?” Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council Ali Larijani rhetorically asked on Monday. “No country has the right to interfere in the independent defensive capabilities of another nation.”

As it works to rebuild its missile arsenal, Iran is getting help from China.

“European intelligence sources say several shipments of sodium perchlorate, the main precursor in the production of the solid propellant that powers Iran’s mid-range conventional missiles, have arrived from China to the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas,” CNN reported late last month. 

The shipments, containing some 2,000 tons of sodium perchlorate, began arriving on Sept. 29, the cable network explained. They were bought by Iran from Chinese suppliers in the wake of the war.

“The purchases are believed to be part of a determined effort to rebuild the Islamic Republic’s depleted missile stocks,” the news outlet added. “Several of the cargo ships and Chinese entities involved are under sanctions from the United States.”

“China is appearing to play a key role here by providing precursor chemicals that do go into solid propellant, rocket fuel, and oxidizer,” Taleblu observed.

Beyond assisting Iran’s offensive missile capabilities, China is reportedly considering a deal to give Tehran advanced HQ-9 air defense systems to help make up for those destroyed by Israel during the 12-Day War. While Iran’s long-range weapons arsenal are often the focus, rebuilding the country’s air defenses is also clearly a top priority after Israel quickly obtained air supremacy over the country.

The issue of new Iranian missile production comes against the backdrop of concerns that Tehran has developed a new facility to continue what U.S. officials claim is its nuclear weapons ambitions. The U.S. says it destroyed a great deal of Iran’s ability to develop nuclear weapons during June’s Operation Midnight Hammer, in which U.S. Air Force B-2 Spirit stealth bombers dropped 14 30,000-pound GBU-57/B Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) bunker buster bombs on Iran’s Fordow and Natanz nuclear facilities. A U.S. nuclear-powered, guided missile (SSGN) submarine in the Central Command Area of Responsibility launched more than two dozen Tomahawk land attack cruise missiles against key surface infrastructure targets at Isfahan, officials added.

However, as The New York Times noted, Iran “appears to be continuing to work on a new enrichment site known as Pickaxe Mountain. It has refused to give international inspectors access to that site or any other suspected nuclear sites other than those already declared.”

The result “is a dangerous stalemate — with no negotiations, no certainty over Iran’s stockpile, no independent oversight,” the newspaper explained. “And many in the Gulf believe that makes another Israeli attack on Iran almost inevitable, given Israeli officials’ long-held view that Iran’s nuclear program is an existential threat.”

The pace of Iran’s missile development could be a large factor for the timing of any future conflict with Israel, Taleblu told us.

“There is a race to build back better. For Israel, it’s interceptors. For the Islamic Republic of Iran, it’s medium-range ballistic missiles,” Taleblu posited. “The fuzzy math between the two may determine the time when the next round between Israel and Iran takes place.”

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WASHINGTON — A group of moderate Democrats has a tentative deal to reopen the government if Republicans promise to hold a vote on expiring healthcare subsidies by December, a potential breakthrough as lawmakers seek to end the shutdown.

The group of three former governors — New Hampshire Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, New Hampshire Sen. Maggie Hassan and Independent Sen. Angus King of Maine — has a deal to pass three annual spending bills and extend the rest of government funding until late January, according to three people familiar with the agreement who requested anonymity until the deal is made public.

The deal was far from assured, and final passage of the legislation could take several days. Republicans had not yet said whether they supported the deal, and it was unclear whether there would be enough Democrats to support it absent their central demand through the now 40-day shutdown — an extension of the Affordable Care Act tax credits that expire Jan. 1.

After Democrats met for more than two hours to discuss the proposal, Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer emerged to say he would vote “no.” Independent Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, who caucuses with the Democrats, said as he walked into the meeting that it would be a “horrific mistake to cave in to Trump right now.”

Republicans have been working with the group of moderates as the shutdown continues to disrupt flights nationwide, threaten food assistance for millions of Americans and leave federal workers without pay. But many Democrats have warned their colleagues against giving in, arguing that they can’t end the fight without an agreement to extend the health subsidies.

Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) said earlier in the day that a potential deal was “coming together.” But he has not yet publicly endorsed it.

“We’ll see where the votes are,” Thune said.

Returning to the White House on Sunday evening after attending a football game, Trump did not say whether he endorsed the deal. But he said, “it looks like we’re getting close to the shutdown ending.”

Democrats have now voted 14 times not to reopen the government as they have demanded the extension of tax credits that make coverage more affordable for health plans offered under the Affordable Care Act. Republicans have refused to negotiate on the healthcare subsidies while the government is closed, but they have so far been supportive of the proposal from moderate Democrats as it emerged over the last several days.

The contours of a deal

The agreement would fund parts of government — food aid, veterans programs and the legislative branch, among other things — and extend funding for everything else until the end of January. It would take up Republicans on their longstanding offer to hold a future vote on the healthcare subsidies, with that vote occurring by the middle of December, the people said.

The deal would reinstate federal workers who received reduction-in-force, or layoff, notices and reimburses states that spent their own funds to keep federal programs running during the shutdown. It would also protect against future reductions in force through January, the people said, and guarantee all federal workers would be paid once the shutdown is over.

Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine of Virginia, home to millions of federal workers, said he would support the deal.

“I have long said that, to earn my vote, we need to be on a path toward fixing Republicans’ healthcare mess and to protect the federal workforce,” Kaine said.

Alongside the funding fix, Republicans released final legislative text of three full-year spending bills Sunday. That legislation keeps a ban on pay raises for lawmakers but boosts their security by $203.5 million in response to increased threats. There’s also a provision championed by Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) to prevent the sale of some hemp-based products.

Democratic pushback expected

Republicans only need five votes from Democrats to reopen the government, so a handful of senators could end the shutdown with only the promise of a later vote on healthcare. Around 10 to 12 Democrats have been involved in the talks, and the three people familiar with the agreement said they had enough votes to join with Republicans and pass the deal.

Many of their Democratic colleagues are saying the emerging deal is not enough.

“I really wanted to get something on healthcare,” said Michigan Sen. Elissa Slotkin. “I’m going to hear about it right now, but it doesn’t look like it has something concrete.”

House Democrats were also chiming in against it. Texas Rep. Greg Casar, the chairman of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, said a deal that didn’t reduce healthcare costs was a “betrayal” of millions of Americans who were counting on Democrats to fight.

“Accepting nothing but a pinky promise from Republicans isn’t a compromise — it’s capitulation,” Casar said in a post on X. “Millions of families would pay the price.”

Rep. Angie Craig of Minnesota posted that “if people believe this is a ‘deal,’ I have a bridge to sell you.”

Even if the Senate were to move forward with funding legislation, getting to a final vote could take several days if Democrats who oppose the deal object and draw out the process. The first vote, which could come as soon as Sunday evening, would be to proceed to consideration of the legislation.

Republicans preview healthcare debate

There is no guarantee that the Affordable Care Act subsidies would be extended if Republicans agreed to a future vote on healthcare. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) has said he will not commit to a health vote.

Some Republicans have said they are open to extending the COVID-19-era tax credits as premiums could skyrocket for millions of people, but they also want new limits on who can receive the subsidies and argue that the tax dollars for the plans should be routed through individuals.

Other Republicans, including Trump, have used the debate to renew their years-long criticism of the law and called for it to be scrapped or overhauled.

“THE WORST HEALTHCARE FOR THE HIGHEST PRICE,” Trump said of the Affordable Care Act in a post Sunday.

Shutdown effects worsen

Meanwhile, the consequences of the shutdown were compounding. U.S. airlines canceled more than 2,000 flights on Sunday for the first time since the shutdown began, and there were more than 7,000 flight delays, according to FlightAware, a website that tracks air travel disruptions.

Treasury Secretary Sean Duffy said on CNN’s “State of the Union” that air travel ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday would be “reduced to a trickle” if the government didn’t reopen.

At the same time, food aid was delayed for tens of millions of people as Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program benefits were caught up in legal battles related to the shutdown. More than two dozen states warned of “catastrophic operational disruptions” as Trump’s administration was demanding states “undo” benefits paid out under judges’ orders last week, now that the U.S. Supreme Court has stayed those rulings.

And in Washington, home to millions of federal workers who have gone unpaid, the Capital Area Food Bank said it was providing 8 million more meals than it had prepared to in this budget year — a nearly 20% increase.

Jalonick and Mascaro write for the Associated Press. Associated Press writers Stephen Groves and Kevin Freking contributed to this report.

Don’t start planning any parades just yet. Hold off on those February plans to travel to Santa Clara.

The Rams still have a long way to go make the playoffs and try to advance to the Super Bowl at Levi’s Stadium.

Their 34-10 victory Sunday over the struggling New Orleans Saints at SoFi Stadium was no revelation or landmark win. But the Rams did something important. Something championship-caliber teams are supposed to do: They convincingly dispatched of a weaker opponent before 72,055.

Matthew Stafford passed for four touchdowns, receiver Puka Nacua returned from an ankle injury in spectacular fashion, and the defense dominated again as the Rams won their third game in a row, improved to 6-2 and showed that the Dodgers might not be the only L.A. team hoisting a championship trophy.

“We’ll see if we can continue to do some good stuff like they did,” coach Sean McVay said of the World Series champions.

The Rams’ victory put them atop the NFC West heading into next Sunday’s game against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi’s Stadium.

“I like the fact that we’re getting better,” McVay said, adding, “There’s just a good vibe.”

On most fronts, anyway.

The Rams’ first victory over an NFC opponent did not come against the defending Super Bowl-champion Philadelphia Eagles or the rival 49ers, teams the Rams lost to in part because of kicking-game disasters.

Rams coach Sean McVay watches from the sideline during the first half Sunday against the Saints.

(Allen J. Schaben / Los Angeles Times)

And those issues remain: Joshua Karty missed a field goal and an extra point.

So McVay’s patience with the kicking game is wearing thin. And no team will win a title without a competent one.

McVay once again said he had confidence in Karty, but that was after he said “it can’t continue like this … it’s gone on for too long,” and “it’s not getting better,” among other things.

Can the Rams be a championship team without an adequate placekicking unit?

“No,” McVay said. “It’s going to cost us — it’s cost us already. It’s been a momentum killer. … The harsh truth of it is this is not sustainable.”

But if the Rams solve the kicking issue and stay healthy — Nacua said he would play against the 49ers after leaving the game in the second half because of a chest injury — and McVay can keep his team focused against division opponents and other playoff contenders, the Rams might earn their own parade.

Stafford is positioning himself to lead one.

Already a fixture on NFL career passing lists, the 17th-year pro is enjoying another sensational season.

As he did in 2021, when he passed for 41 touchdowns and led the Rams to a Super Bowl title, Stafford is playing at a level that should have him in the most-valuable-player discussion.

Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford passes in front of Saints defensive end Cameron Jordan during the first quarter Sunday.

(Allen J. Schaben / Los Angeles Times)

On Sunday his two touchdown passes to Davante Adams and one each to Nacua and tight end Tyler Higbee increased Stafford’s season total to 21, with only two interceptions.

Stafford, who passed for five touchdowns in an Oct. 19 rout of the Jacksonville Jaguars, completed 24 of 32 passes for 281 yards and extended to five his streak of games without an interception.

Stafford’s wife and their daughters attended the game wearing No. 22 Dodgers jerseys, a salute to retiring pitcher Clayton Kershaw, Stafford’s high school teammate.

Now Stafford is chasing a second Super Bowl title.

“It’s not like we’ve got it all figured out,” he said, adding, “Got to keep continuing to find ways to put more points on the board.”

Nacua sat out against the Jaguars because of an ankle injury. But he said in the days leading up to the game that he was “feeling fantastic.”

Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua, left, celebrates with wide receiver Davante Adams after catching a touchdown pass in the second quarter Sunday against the Saints.

(Allen J. Schaben / Los Angeles Times)

He looked like it at the outset, making two catches for first downs to start a drive that ended with Stafford’s touchdown pass to Higbee. The veteran tight end, in an apparent salute to the Dodgers, celebrated by taking an imaginary swing and then doing their post-hit celebration.

Adams then followed his breakout three-touchdown performance against the Jaguars with the first of two more red-zone touchdowns. The 12th-year pro is tied for eighth all time with 111 touchdown catches.

Early in the second quarter, Stafford and Nacua went for the home run, connecting on a 39-yard pass that Nacua hauled in for a touchdown and a 20-3 lead.

Stafford’s short strike to Adams in the third quarter put the game out of reach, and Kyren Williams’ short touchdown run early in the fourth quarter provided the finishing touch.

Williams rushed for 114 yards and Blake Corum ran for 58 on a day when the Rams once again utilized all four tight ends in the pass and run attacks.

Meanwhile, the Rams defense made it rough on Saints rookie quarterback Tyler Shough in his first start.

Several Rams defensive players tackle Saints quarterback Tyler Shough in the second quarter of the Rams’ 34-10 win Sunday at SoFi Stadium.

(Allen J. Schaben / Los Angeles Times)

Lineman Braden Fiske got his first sack of the season, linebacker Nate Landman forced another fumble, and cornerback Emmanuel Forbes Jr. intercepted his first pass as a Ram.

“We’re growing at a great rate,” Landman said, “and we’re going to peak at the right time.”

The game against the Saints was the start of a stretch that includes two home games after the 49ers. Only two remaining nine games — a late November trip to play the Carolina Panthers and a late December trip to play the Atlanta Falcons — will require the Rams to travel farther east than Arizona.

A lot can happen between now and the start of the playoffs. But the Rams look like the Super Bowl contender they were built to be.