persist

March 30 (Asia Today) — South Korea’s fertility rate rose to 0.99 in January, nearing the symbolic threshold of 1.0, but experts warn the increase does not signal a sustained recovery.

Statistics Korea reported 26,916 births in January, the highest monthly figure in nearly seven years, while marriages also reached their highest level since 2018. The rise in marriages, a leading indicator of births, has raised expectations that birth numbers could continue to increase over the next two to three years.

Despite the uptick, analysts say the improvement reflects a temporary demographic effect rather than a fundamental shift. The increase is largely attributed to people born in the early 1990s entering peak childbearing years, boosting birth numbers in what is often referred to as an “echo boom.”

Experts caution that broader structural challenges – including population decline, rapid aging and regional depopulation – continue to worsen.

The government is planning to restructure its population policy framework in response. Officials aim to expand the Presidential Committee on Low Birthrate and Aging Society into a “population strategy committee” with broader authority covering labor supply, immigration and regional demographics.

The proposed body would also coordinate policies across ministries and be granted authority to review budgets in advance, signaling a shift toward more centralized management of population-related policies.

The policy approach itself is also expected to change. Rather than focusing solely on raising the birth rate, the government is moving toward strategies that assume continued population decline and aim to adapt to long-term demographic changes.

However, progress has been slow. The vice chair position of the presidential committee has remained vacant for about three months, and plans to expand and strengthen the organization have yet to gain momentum.

Experts say policy must focus less on short-term birth rate figures and more on underlying structural issues.

Ha Hye-young, a senior researcher at the National Assembly Research Service, pointed to Japan’s experience with regional revitalization policies, saying South Korea should adopt models that account for a shrinking population rather than attempting to reverse it.

Kim Jong-hoon, head of a population research institute, said South Korea faces a growing imbalance as the working-age population declines while the burden of supporting older generations increases. He added that many current policies amount to a “zero-sum” effort to attract residents from other regions rather than expanding the overall population base.

— Reported by Asia Today; translated by UPI

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Original Korean report: https://www.asiatoday.co.kr/kn/view.php?key=20260330010009243