Pakistans

Skardu, Pakistan – When Wasiyat Khan was woken up by a loud explosion in the middle of the night, he thought “the mountains had burst” and a landslide was on its way.

Accompanied by his family, Wasiyat, a shepherd from Roshan valley of Ghizer, in northern Pakistan’s mountainous Gilgit-Baltistan region, had taken his livestock to elevated land for grazing on a sojourn during the warmer months.

Soon enough, as the family sought immediate safety, he realised the explosion was the sound of a glacier bursting. As their temporary accommodation was being swept away by the floodwaters, Wasiyat thought of the villages which lay in the water’s path.

At more than 3,000 metres in the darkness of the night, outside help was impossible to get. He immediately jumped across boulders and reached a designated spot where he could get mobile phone signals and alerted the villagers, who numbered about 300.

“Within 30 minutes, we got a call back saying the villagers had evacuated safely and no lives were lost,” Wasiyat told local media. “While they were safe, we were left with nothing, not even a matchstick to keep us warm near the glaciers. It was very cold and we were suffering.

“When we were rescued hours later and taken back to the village, we found out that all our houses and land were covered by mud, but no lives were lost.”

The glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) is a common occurrence in northern Pakistan, home to an estimated 13,000 glaciers. As global warming worsens, the effect of more glaciers melting is “likely to be significant” this year, Pakistan’s disaster management authority, NDMA, had said in March.

In its latest assessment, the NDMA says snowfall across Pakistan in the coming months is projected to be less than average, particularly in areas like Gilgit-Baltistan, reducing overall snow accumulation. A reduced snow cover, it fears, would accelerate glacier retreat by exposing ice earlier in the season, making high-altitude regions more vulnerable to GLOFs.

To prevent such occurrences, the government mainly relies on its early warning systems (EWS), which help in reducing loss of life and injury, economic losses, protecting critical infrastructure, and enhancing climate resilience. 

An EWS functions through an interconnected process made up of sensors and gauges that collect real-time data monitored by meteorologists and experts to not only warn of a current hazard, but also predict a disaster. Dozens of EWS sites across the most climate-vulnerable valleys in Gilgit-Baltistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa are currently transmitting real-time data to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.

‘Human EWS’

But residents in northern Pakistan say they are more reliant on Indigenous human knowledge instead of the EWS technology.

Mohammad Hussain, a shepherd in Gilgit-Baltistan’s Skardu Valley, told Al Jazeera about an incident when he was inside his stone hut during the summer. After nearly an hour of rainfall, he witnessed strong lightning followed by an unusual roaring sound.

As he stepped out of the hut to gather his cattle, he saw a powerful flash flood, carrying enormous boulders and uprooting large trees. Acting quickly, he alerted the villagers, which ensured safe evacuation before the floodwaters reached.

He recounted stories shared by his grandfather, who said people relied on large signal fires, gunfire or specific sound patterns to alert others. Natural signs such as sudden heavy rainfall, cloud formations, unusual animal behaviour, and distinct roaring sounds are still being used to predict flash floods in the absence of the EWS.

In one incident, he attempted to light a fire to alert villagers below, but, due to daylight and heavy rain, it was ineffective. He then fired his gun three times, a pre-agreed signal indicating danger. Villagers who heard the gunfire raised alarms through the mosque’s loudspeaker, initiating a rapid evacuation.

Although there were significant economic losses, there were no casualties, demonstrating the effectiveness of this “human EWS”.

Pakistan ranks among the top 10 most climate-vulnerable nations, even though it contributes less than 1 percent of global emissions. The World Bank said in 2023 that the mean temperature in Pakistan since the 1950s has risen by 1.3 degrees Celsius (2.34 degrees Fahrenheit), which is twice as fast as the global mean change.

The country’s climate change minister, Musadiq Malik, recently told Al Jazeera that “when these [glacial] floods hit, they cause immense mortality, morbidity and widespread displacement,” adding that “it’s a harsh reality we face.” Pakistan faced nearly 90 such floods between 2019 and 2022.

‘Technology alone won’t save lives’

Despite spending millions on EWS and its implementation, there has been widespread lack of trust placed in it by a number of communities, due to frequent reports of malfunctioning of equipment and lack of follow-ups by the concerned agencies.

A report in Pakistan’s Friday Times in June this year said “despite launching the $37m GLOF-II project in 2017, with new gauges, sirens, and local training, no real-time link connects human sensors in villages to official rescue teams.”

The report warned that “technology alone won’t save lives if SOPs sit buried, rescue checklists gather dust, and trust is missing on the ground.”

Some villagers Al Jazeera spoke to in Gilgit-Baltistan echoed that sentiment, speaking of their lack of trust in the equipment, questioning its effectiveness, and sharing concerns that these systems have not worked. They also slammed officials for falsely taking credit for the system’s effectiveness in saving lives.

“Residents say the EWS in Gilgit-Baltistan have been installed without taking the local authorities and communities into confidence, which was the reason they could not play an effective role,” Zaki Abbas, an Islamabad-based journalist who writes on climate change, told Al Jazeera.

“Last year, I was told by a local activist that up to 20 systems had been installed at various spots, but they had not been operational for different reasons. This controversy surrounding this issue had also echoed in the GB legislative assembly, with the opposition leaders in the region most recently demanding an investigation into the failure of these systems. However, no such probe was ordered.

“Their ineffectiveness can be gauged by the fact that warnings about GLOFs have come from people, most recently a shepherd whose timely call saved an entire village, instead of these systems on which billions of rupees have been spent.”

Addressing the challenges remains a task for the government and partners involved in the implementation of EWS. The UNDP said in February this year that “limited financial resources, technical capacity, data gaps and uncertainties, communication barriers, weak institutional capacities, and complex and evolving climate risks” are just some of the issues facing EWS globally.

When Wasiyat and two other shepherds from Ghizer were given $28,000 each in August by Pakistan’s prime minister as rewards for saving hundreds of lives, they were told that “this act of courage and responsibility will be written in golden words.”

As unpredictable rains, snow patterns and melting glaciers continue to affect Pakistan, especially the northern areas, it seems residents are more likely to rely on these “heroes” in the absence of widespread EWS and the community’s trust in them.

This story was produced in partnership with the Pulitzer Center.

Islamabad, Pakistan – A powerful car bomb blast outside the headquarters of Pakistan’s paramilitary Frontier Corps in the southwestern city of Quetta has killed at least 10 people and wounded more than 30 others, authorities said.

The explosion, swiftly followed by heavy gunfire, tore through the vicinity of Zarghoon Road in Quetta, capital of Balochistan province, on Tuesday.

“Two law enforcement personnel were killed while the rest of the dead were civilians,” Bakht Muhammad Kakar, the provincial health minister, told Al Jazeera.

A security camera video posted on social media showed a vehicle turning towards the regional headquarters of the Frontier Corps and exploding within seconds.

Naresh Kumar, a witness, said he was standing outside his office close to the targeted building when the explosion took place. “My mind just went blank. I got hit by shards of glasses in my arm and back. The explosion was just massive,” Kumar told Al Jazeera.

Inam, another injured person who only gave his first name, was brought to the hospital where he was treated for wounds after glass shards injured his back due to the explosion.

“Our office is right around the paramilitary building. We were working in our office when the explosion totally rocked us and then everything went dark. I could hear firing which lasted for a while before the law enforcement arrived to take control,” he told Al Jazeera via telephone from the hospital.

Balochistan’s Chief Minister Mir Sarfraz Bugti condemned the incident, labelling it a “terrorist attack”. Speaking after the blast, Bugti confirmed that at least four attackers were killed by the security personnel.

Pakistan’s President Asif Ali Zardari issued a strong condemnation over the attack, saying, “The misguided extremists were acting on India’s agenda.” He did not give details.

India has not yet responded to the allegation. No group has claimed responsibility for the bombing.

Balochistan’s economic significance

Balochistan is Pakistan’s largest yet most sparsely populated province. Home to about 15 million people in a country of roughly 240 million, it remains the country’s poorest province despite possessing vast reserves of oil, coal, gold, copper, and gas. While these resources contribute substantially to the revenues of the federal government, the province itself faces economic hardships.

Balochistan is also home to Gwadar, a strategic deep-sea port which is the centrepiece of $60bn China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) project designed to establish a trade link between southwestern China and the Arabian Sea.

However, Chinese investments, particularly in Balochistan, have fuelled local resentments. Residents accuse Chinese firms of “stealing local resources” and this sentiment has repeatedly driven local armed groups to attack Chinese personnel and installations.

The province also has the Reko Diq reserves, which are said to contain the world’s fifth-largest copper deposits.

Canadian firm Barrick Mining has been operating at the site since 2022. Earlier this month, Pakistan also signed a $500m deal with a United States-based firm to export critical minerals and rare earth elements.

The local resentments have fuelled a rebellion movement for decades, which aims to establish an independent Balochistan state.

As violence escalates in the province, analysts have questioned the government’s ability in eliminating the armed and rebel groups such as the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) or the Baloch Liberation Front (BLF).

Muhammad Arif, an expert on international relations, said the demography of Balochistan is complex for both the violent groups as well as the government as he pointed out a logistical challenge inherent in the province’s topography.

“It is not possible for non-state actors to take control of the region of Balochistan with its vast, difficult terrain, but at the same time, the security of each and every corner of the state is difficult for the same reasons,” he said.

Arif suggested that a recent surge in violence could be linked to the government’s counter-insurgency operations.

“It is believed that the Baloch Liberation Army and other groups have suffered heavy casualties in the last couple of weeks, with the Pakistani forces helped by Chinese communication equipment along with drones and Pakistani jet fighters. [Tuesday’s] attack could be a retaliation move,” the Quetta-based analyst told Al Jazeera.

Additional reporting by Saadullah Akhter in Quetta.

Pakistan began evacuations last month after India released water from overflowing dams into low-lying border regions.

Nearly 300,000 people have been evacuated in the past 48 hours from flood-hit areas of Pakistan’s Punjab province following the latest flood alerts by India, officials have said, bringing the total number of people displaced since last month to 1.3 million.

A new flood alert was shared with Pakistan by neighbouring India through diplomatic channels early on Wednesday, said Arfan Ali Kathia, director-general of Punjab’s Provincial Disaster Management Authority.

Floodwaters have submerged dozens of villages in Punjab’s Muzaffargarh district, after earlier inundating Narowal and Sialkot, both near the border with India.

Authorities are also struggling to divert overflowing rivers onto farmlands to protect major cities, as part of one of the largest rescue and relief operations in the history of Punjab, which straddles eastern Pakistan and northwestern India.

The flood alert on Wednesday was the second in 24 hours following heavy rains and water releases from dams in India.

Thousands of rescuers using boats are taking part in the relief and rescue operations, while the military has also been deployed to transport people and animals from inundated villages, said Kathia.

Rescuers are also using drones to find people stranded on rooftops in the flood-hit areas. Kathia said more than 3.3 million people across 33,000 villages in the province have been affected. The damage is still being assessed and all those who lost homes and crops would be compensated by the Punjab government, he said.

Landslides and flooding have killed at least 30 people in India’s Punjab state, home to more than 30 million people, and nearly 20,000 have been evacuated since August 1.

In Pakistan, tent villages are being set up and food and other essential items are being supplied to flood-affected people, said Kathia, though many survivors complained about a lack of government aid.

Punjab Chief Minister Maryam Nawaz Sharif visited flood-hit areas in Muzaffargarh on Wednesday, meeting with displaced families at the camps.

About 40,000 people are in the relief camps, according to the National Disaster Management Authority. It remains unclear where the rest are sheltering.

Malik Ramzan, a displaced resident, said he chose to stay near his inundated home rather than enter a relief camp. “There are no liveable facilities in the camps,” he said. “Food isn’t delivered on time, and we are treated like beggars.”

Facilities at the camps “are very poor,” said Al Jazeera’s Kamal Hyder, reporting from Multan in Punjab. “There’s no clean drinking water, no proper toilet facilities, plus the fact that it’s very hot and humid, so it leads to dehydration.”

While these families have fans to keep cool in the heat, “there are frequent power breakdowns, so these people now are very vulnerable when it comes to their health and, of course, the outbreak of diseases.”

Last week’s flooding mainly hit districts in Kasur, Bahawalpur and Narowal.

Pakistan began mass evacuations last month after India released water from overflowing dams into low-lying border regions.

The latest floods are the worst since 2022, when climate-induced flooding killed nearly 1,700 people in Pakistan.