pact

A long-awaited pact between the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and China for a “code of conduct” in the disputed South China Sea is unlikely to materialise during the regional bloc’s annual gathering of leaders in Manila this week, analysts and officials say.

The agreement would aim to manage tensions and prevent conflict at sea. But talks have dragged on for more than 20 years. In 2023, foreign ministers agreed to work towards finalising the accord within three years.

That deadline fell on 2026 – the year the Philippines took its turn as chair of ASEAN. Under its leadership, the Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) said negotiators have met at least once a month.

But they have fallen short of arriving at a consensus ahead of the summit.

“I just want to say that at this point in time, 80 percent of the document itself is finished,” DFA Secretary Maria Theresa Lazaro said on Saturday, adding that there are some ‘salient’ points that still need to be ironed out.

She has previously said that geographical scope is one of the contentious issues. Beijing insists it has jurisdiction over nearly the entire South China Sea despite a 2016 international ruling invalidating that claim.

The Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and Indonesia also have overlapping territorial claims.

A war of words

The Philippines would also like the accord to respect the rights of countries outside the region, according to DFA spokesman Dominic Xavier Imperial. Half of the world’s merchant ships pass through the South China Sea.

But the country may be caught between a rock and a hard place.

“You can’t win it because if you get a good document, you’ll be accused of railroading or it would come across as self-serving. But if it’s a bad document, the Marcos Jr administration will be seen as a weak government,” Aries Arugay, a political scientist at the University of the Philippines, said.

China has consistently accused the United States and its allies, who regularly conduct freedom of navigation operations with the Philippines, of interference.

Tensions between Manila and Beijing have escalated since Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr took office in 2022. The China Coast Guard has repeatedly deployed water cannon against Philippine vessels and maritime confrontations have resulted in collisions and, on one occasion, a Filipino soldier losing a finger.

In recent weeks, the two countries have been engaged in a war of words.

In September, Philippine Defence Secretary Gilberto Teodoro’s public response to a handwritten note rejecting the 2016 South China Sea ruling – reportedly from Beijing’s military attache in Seoul – went viral.

“Perhaps basic decency and behaviour is what China needs to do,” Teodoro, who has been barred from entering China, said.

A month later, Beijing’s ambassador to Manila, Jing Quan, told reporters that if China wanted to use force, “we may easily win. But no, we will not choose force. We love peace”. The statement was made in response to a question about Teodoro calling China a “troublemaker”, but which Marcos said “sounded like a threat”.

What followed was a barrage of social media posts by Philippine officials criticising Jing, with the Chinese embassy replying in kind. Senators called for the expulsion of the Chinese envoy.

And, in late October, China accused Teodoro of a late invitation to the ASEAN defence ministers’ meeting in Cebu. Without ample time to prepare, it said it could only send its Manila-based defence attache.

“When that happened, I think the concern, especially on the part of the DFA, was, ‘We don’t want China not sending their premier. It would not look good on us as a host country,’” Lucio Pitlo, past president of the Philippine Association for Chinese Studies, said.

With just days before world leaders were due to arrive in Manila, diplomats from both sides stepped in.

In a phone call, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told Lazaro, his Philippine counterpart, to rein in politicians.

“The Philippines should strengthen restraint over the relevant individuals and send a rational and unified voice on its policy toward China,” Wang said in a statement released by the Chinese embassy in Manila.

Lazaro described the conversation as having been “frank and constructive”.

However, the DFA followed up with a statement saying it found public commentary by certain government officials “regrettable”.

“Whatever personal convictions public officials may hold, their public platforms carry institutional responsibilities,” it said. “They may not pursue preferred approaches toward China, or any other international partner, without regard for the consequences on the government’s overall policy.”

‘Airing dirty laundry’

Some analysts say the spat has further exposed division within the Marcos administration.

“They’re airing dirty laundry out there. It doesn’t communicate coherence. It doesn’t project a unified stance. This could have been an internal memo,” Arugay said.

But Pitlo said the last-ditch diplomatic effort had achieved its objective. Chinese Premier Li Qiang is now attending the ASEAN Leaders’ Summit in Manila.

Despite this, Pitlo shares pessimism about leaders reaching a conclusion to negotiations for a code of conduct in the South China Sea.

“I think with all the concerns about trade protectionism, the disruption in supply chains, economic issues will be very high in the agenda. I think it will be a tall order to get the code of conduct done.”

Gulf countries have stepped up diplomacy with Iran in a bid to de-escalate tensions across the Middle East, amid fears of renewed US strikes on Tehran and intensifying hostilities between Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen and Saudi Arabia.

The three nations that signed the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement in August – Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkiye – and diplomats from Qatar met with high-ranking Iranian officials on Monday in an effort to prevent the resumption of all-out war.

Underscoring the high stakes, the meeting in Tehran was attended by Saudi Minister of Defence Prince Khalid bin Salman Al Saud, just days after Iran-aligned Houthi fighters struck Saudi airports, ports and oil facilities.

Meanwhile, during a diplomatic visit to the United Kingdom’s University of Cambridge on Monday, Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi called for a regional security framework, including a “non-aggression pact”, between the Gulf countries and Iran under which the United States would no longer be the primary provider of security.

While Gulf countries appear determined to avoid another round of conflict – which has already restricted passage through the Strait of Hormuz, disrupted global oil and gas supplies and wreaked havoc on energy facilities and infrastructure in Gulf states – questions remain over whether a regional agreement is possible and where it would leave relations between the US and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC).

Regional security or de-escalation?

On Friday, US President Donald Trump repeated warnings that Washington may carry out another military operation against Iran as rising fuel prices weigh on the US midterm elections scheduled for November 3. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said Iran would respond more forcefully to any renewed US military action, stoking fears of an even wider escalation.

While this week’s talks in Tehran mark the first high-level ‌contact between Iran and the Mecca mutual defence pact nations since the US-Israel war on Iran began on February 28, reports suggest they have stopped short of landing an agreement.

Reuters reported that Qatari mediators ⁠presented ⁠Iran with a draft deal on Sunday, which Tehran was expected to respond to by the end of the week. On Wednesday, the news agency quoted Iranian officials as saying Qatar had put ‌forward ideas that were unacceptable and that Tehran would ⁠show ⁠no flexibility regarding the nuclear ‌issue.

Khaled Batarfi, a Saudi political analyst and academic, said the visit to Tehran indicated that Saudi Arabia was willing to give Iran a “last warning” and “submit to the region’s concerns”, but that Iran has so far refused.

“The gap is [wide] and what makes it worse is that there is no trust,” Batarfi told Al Jazeera.

Observers say diverging views are unlikely to turn the current diplomatic efforts into a lasting infrastructure. “It’s really hard to see a regional security framework coming out in the coming months or even years,” Aniseh Bassiri Tabrizi, an associate fellow at Chatham House in London, told Al Jazeera.

“What we are seeing is more small groups, flexible groups of countries that are taking the lead in trying to reach either bilateral or multilateral solutions,” the analyst said. “A regional security framework would need the same vision for the region, which is not necessarily shared… among the GCC countries themselves.”

Challenges ahead

Hamidreza Azizi, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, said Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkiye share concerns that a prolonged confrontation between Iran and the US could further destabilise the region.

“The main obstacle remains the fundamental disagreement between Tehran and Washington over the sequence of commitments,” Azizi told Al Jazeera. “The US wants Iranian concessions, particularly on the nuclear issue, while Tehran insists that its conditions for ending the war must be met first.”

“Regional mediation could help bridge this gap, possibly through an interim arrangement, but the willingness of regional actors to facilitate an agreement does not necessarily mean that the two principal parties are prepared to make the necessary compromises,” he added.

As for a new security order, Azizi said regional countries do not share a common understanding of what it should look like and what role the US – which has so far been the GCC’s main security partner – would have left to play.

Iran has long advocated for a regional security architecture that would reduce or eliminate the US military presence. “Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states, however, remain deeply integrated into the US security system, and there is little indication that they intend to abandon it,” Azizi said.

“The recent war has certainly raised questions about the reliability of American security guarantees, but this has encouraged these countries to diversify their security partnerships rather than fundamentally redefine their strategic alignments.”

Planned talks to be first high-level contact between Iran and the bloc since Houthi rebels escalated their attacks on Saudi Arabia.

Delegations from the Mecca Defence Alliance countries – Saudi Arabia, Turkiye and Pakistan – will visit Tehran for talks, according to Saudi and Iranian officials.

Ali Bagheri Kani, deputy secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, was quoted by state-run media as saying Saudi Defence Minister Khalid bin Salman Al Saud, Pakistani military chief Asim Munir and Turkish intelligence chief Ibrahim Kalin will participate in a joint meeting during their visit to Tehran on Monday.

The Iranian delegation will be led by Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of the Supreme National Security Council.

The participating countries could take an effective step towards establishing regional security based on actors in the region, Bagheri Kani said.

Rayed Krimly, the Saudi deputy minister for public diplomacy, also confirmed the meeting, adding that the visit comes as part of the continued efforts by the Mecca Defence Alliance allies “for de-escalation between parties involved in the ongoing crisis and promoting dialogue and diplomatic solutions in support of the mediation efforts carried out” by Qatar and Pakistan.

“The visit underscores the pivotal role of Mecca Joint Defence Agreement countries in reinforcing regional security and stability and working with all countries in the region to achieve that goal,” he wrote on X.

Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia

The planned talks would be the first high-level contact between Iran and all members of the alliance since Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi armed group escalated attacks on Saudi Arabia last month.

Field Marshal Munir last week visited Tehran, where he met President Masoud Pezeshkian and other senior officials.

During the visit, Iranian officials told him there would be no talks with the United States about ending the US-Israel war on Iran until Tehran’s demands were met, according to Iranian media.

Pakistan has been a key intermediary between Washington and Tehran since the US and Israel launched the war in February.

Earlier mediation efforts helped produce an interim agreement in June, but the deal quickly unravelled as fighting between Iran and the US resumed weeks later.

Saudi Arabia intercepted another wave of missiles and drones on Sunday as fighting with the Houthis continued.

Ministers from the Mecca Defence Alliance countries held an emergency meeting in Riyadh this month and agreed to ensure the “rapid deployment” of military forces and capabilities in Saudi Arabia.

The Houthi attacks have become an increasingly destabilising element in the US-Israeli war on Iran, turning US ally Saudi Arabia into a pressure point ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠in the wider war.

Turkiye, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia signed the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement in August. Under it, an armed attack on one member is considered an attack on all.

The agreement’s first article says the parties shall use “all necessary means” to eliminate threats to one another’s territorial integrity, sovereignty and internationally recognised borders, according to the text publicised at the time.

Efforts by Turkiye’s parliament to ratify the agreement began last week and are still under way while Pakistan approved the pact last week.