oscar prediction

RogerEbert.com

Robert Daniels

1. Kathryn Bigelow, “A House of Dynamite”
2. Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another”
3. Jafar Panahi, “It Was Just an Accident”
4. Chloé Zhao, “Hamnet”
5. Joachim Trier, “Sentimental Value”

“With 11 prior nominations and zero wins, the Oscar has long eluded Paul Thomas Anderson. But with ‘One Battle After Another’ earning raves and an academy that has honored overdue directors three of the last four ceremonies (Jane Campion, Christopher Nolan, Sean Baker), maybe this is his year.”

Turner Classic Movies

Dave Karger

1. Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another”
2. Kathryn Bigelow, “A House of Dynamite”
3. Chloé Zhao, “Hamnet”
4. Joachim Trier, “Sentimental Value”
5. Jafar Panahi, “It Was Just an Accident”

“On nomination day, 11-time Oscar nominee Paul Thomas Anderson will likely become a 14-time Oscar nominee. Surprisingly, he’s never won in any category. But this could certainly be his year. Meanwhile, this category could well contain two female filmmakers for the first time in five years.”

Los Angeles Times

Amy Nicholson

1. Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another”
2. Ryan Coogler, “Sinners”
3. Kathryn Bigelow, “A House of Dynamite”
4. Park Chan-wook, “No Other Choice”
5. Bill Condon, “Kiss of the Spider Woman”

“Paul Thomas Anderson has 11 Academy Award nominations (no surprise there) and zero wins. What!? ‘One Battle After Another’ isn’t his best film — deciding that would start a real fist fight — but it’s worthy enough to claim a prize that’s long overdue.”

IndieWire

Anne Thompson

1. Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another”
2. Ryan Coogler, “Sinners”
3. Chloé Zhao, “Hamnet”
4. Kathryn Bigelow, “A House of Dynamite”
5. Joachim Trier, “Sentimental Value”

“If ‘Sinners’ wins best picture, director could go to ‘One Battle After Another’s’ Paul Thomas Anderson after 11 nominations (and no wins) for arguably his most bravura movie to date. Both ‘Hamnet’ director Chloé Zhao and ‘House of Dynamite’s’ Kathryn Bigelow have won before.”

Tribune News Service

Katie Walsh

1. Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another”
2. Ryan Coogler, “Sinners”
3. Jafar Panahi, “It Was Just an Accident”
4. Chloé Zhao, “Hamnet”
5. Kathryn Bigelow, “A House of Dynamite”

“It has to be Anderson, but I can see the academy recognizing former winners like Kathryn Bigelow and Chloé Zhao. Ryan Coogler has never been nominated for best director, and Jafar Panahi threads an incredible tonal needle with ‘It Was Just an Accident’ (the Palme d’Or helps too).”

Los Angeles Times

Glenn Whipp

1. Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another”
2. Ryan Coogler, “Sinners”
3. Chloé Zhao, “Hamnet”
4. Joachim Trier, “Sentimental Value”
5. Kathryn Bigelow, “A House of Dynamite”

“The list of great directors who never won an Oscar is ridiculous. Kubrick, Hitchcock, Altman, Fellini. Could this be the year that Paul Thomas Anderson breaks out of that club, distinguished though it may be? With ‘One Battle After Another,’ he has the movie to do it.”

RogerEbert.com

Robert Daniels

1. “The Voice of Hind Rajab” (Tunisia)
2. “It Was Just an Accident” (France)
3. “Calle Málaga” (Morocco)
4. “Sentimental Value” (Norway)
5. “No Other Choice” (South Korea)

“Venice’s harrowing grand jury prize winner, Tunisia’s ‘The Voice of Hind Rajab,’ has already built early momentum. The film tells the real-life story of Rajab, a 6-year-old Palestinian girl whose final hours trapped in a car under intense fire from an IDF tank were spent pleading to be saved. A distressing docufiction, the film is a candid dramatization of her emergency phone calls.”

Turner Classic Movies

Dave Karger

1. “Sentimental Value” (Norway)
2. “It Was Just an Accident” (France)
3. “The Secret Agent” (Brazil)
4. “No Other Choice” (South Korea)
5. “Left-Handed Girl” (Taiwan)

“Three films that are also overall contenders this year stand to dominate this race: Norway’s ‘Sentimental Value,’ Brazil’s ‘The Secret Agent’ and France’s ‘It Was Just an Accident.’ The bigger question will be which films are able to snag the final two slots.”

Los Angeles Times

Amy Nicholson

1. “The Secret Agent” (Brazil)
2. “Sentimental Value” (Norway)
3. “A Useful Ghost” (Thailand)
4. “2000 Meters to Andriivka” (Ukraine)
5. “It Was Just an Accident” (France)

“Can Brazil get back-to-back wins for international feature? Possivelmente! ‘The Secret Agent,’ another political thriller set during the dictatorship, was one of the buzziest movies at Cannes, where it scooped up best actor for star Wagner Moura and best director for Kleber Mendonça Filho (of the weirdo western ‘Bacarau’).”

IndieWire

Anne Thompson

1. “Sentimental Value” (Norway)
2. “The Secret Agent” (Brazil)
3. “The President’s Cake” (Iraq)
4. “No Other Choice” (South Korea)
5. “Left-Handed Girl” (Taiwan)

“It’s too early, as [several countries] haven’t submitted yet. But Cannes prizewinners have an increased profile with the international committee, including Norway’s ‘Sentimental Value’ and Brazil’s ‘Secret Agent.’ ”

Tribune News Service

Katie Walsh

1. “It Was Just an Accident” (France)
2. “Sentimental Value” (Norway)
3. “The Secret Agent”
4. “Sirât” (Spain)
5. “No Other Choice” (South Korea)

“Based on Cannes, I think ‘It Was Just an Accident’ (France), ‘The Secret Agent’ (Brazil), ‘Sirât’ (Spain) and ‘Sentimental Value’ (Norway) could be considered as good as nominated. But who will emerge triumphant in the fifth spot?”

Los Angeles Times

Glenn Whipp

1. “Sirât” (Spain)
2. “Sentimental Value” (Norway)
3. “It Was Just an Accident” (France)
4. “No Other Choice” (South Korea)
5. “The Secret Agent” (Brazil)

“I’ll call it right now. The thrilling ‘Sirât,’ from Spanish filmmaker Oliver Laxe, is going to be named best picture by either the Los Angeles or New York film critics. Who knows? Maybe both. And then it’ll be off to the races for this film, a ‘Sorcerer’ for the 21st century.”

RogerEbert.com

Robert Daniels

1. Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet”
2. Amanda Seyfried, “The Testament of Ann Lee”
3. Emma Stone, “Bugonia”
4. Julia Roberts, “After the Hunt”
5. Renate Reinsve, “Sentimental Value”

“With a gut-wrenching performance as Agnes Shakespeare, Jessie Buckley’s fearless turn echoes with the force of a primal scream. It feels inevitable that the previous nominee will win an Oscar at some point. It’s just a matter of time.”

Turner Classic Movies

Dave Karger

1. Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet”
2. Renate Reinsve, “Sentimental Value”
3. Emma Stone, “Bugonia”
4. Cynthia Erivo, “Wicked: For Good”
5. Sydney Sweeney, “Christy”

“International actresses headline this race, with ‘Hamnet’s’ Jessie Buckley and ‘Sentimental Value’s’ Renate Reinsve earning festival raves for their wonderful performances. Two-time winner Emma Stone and two-time acting nominee Cynthia Erivo are also likely to return, while ‘Christy’ star Sydney Sweeney will try to ride her strong Toronto buzz to a first nomination.”

Los Angeles Times

Amy Nicholson

1. Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet”
2. Tessa Thompson, “Hedda”
3. Amanda Seyfried, “The Testament of Ann Lee”
4. Rose Byrne, “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”
5. Cynthia Erivo, “Wicked: For Good”

“A Jessie Buckley win here as Shakespeare’s wild, witchy wife makes perfect sense. The Irish talent comes to the campaign with a supporting nom for ‘The Lost Daughter’ already under her sash and heaps of critical goodwill dating to 2018’s ‘Wild Rose.’ But I wouldn’t mind a Tessa Thompson upset.”

IndieWire

Anne Thompson

1. Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet”
2. Renate Reinsve, “Sentimental Value”
3. Rose Byrne, “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”
4. Emma Stone, “Bugonia”
5. Cynthia Erivo, “Wicked: For Good”

“The win could go to Jessie Buckley for her heart-wrenching mother in ‘Hamnet.’ Her challengers are another troubled mother, Rose Byrne in ‘If I Had Legs I’d Kick You,’ warbler Cynthia Erivo in ‘Wicked for Good,’ ‘Bugonia’ star Emma Stone, who has already won twice, and Renate Reinsve as a great actress in Norwegian Oscar submission ‘Sentimental Value.’ ”

Tribune News Service

Katie Walsh

1. Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet”
2. Emma Stone, “Bugonia”
3. Jennifer Lawrence, “Die, My Love”
4. Renate Reinsve, “Sentimental Value”
5. Amanda Seyfried, “The Testament of Ann Lee”

“I haven’t seen ‘Hamnet,’ but I’m hearing best actress is Jessie Buckley’s to lose. The TIFF People’s Choice Award gives it a boost too. Should Emily Blunt go lead for ‘The Smashing Machine,’ or supporting?”

Los Angeles Times

Glenn Whipp

1. Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet”
2. Renate Reinsve, “Sentimental Value”
3. Cynthia Erivo, “Wicked: For Good”
4. Emma Stone, “Bugonia”
5. Rose Byrne, “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”

“Get ready for the sequel Oscar campaign for Cynthia Erivo and ‘Wicked’ as the second installment of the musical adaptation lands in November. Will voters be into it or over it? That’s a coin flip. More certain: Erivo will rip out our hearts in the sequel.”