Noboa

Nearly three weeks of striking bus drivers and roadblocks by angry farmers have put Ecuador President Daniel Noboa in one of the tensest moments of his presidency.

The outcry comes in response to the government’s increase in diesel fuel costs, after a subsidy was cut last month.

With no signs of dialogue after 18 days, one protester has been killed, numerous protesters and authorities injured, and more than 100 people arrested.

The army announced a large deployment to the capital on Thursday, saying it would prevent vandalism and destruction of property. As many as 5,000 troops were being deployed after dozens of protesters had marched at various sites in the city earlier in the day.

Though the demonstrations called for by Ecuador’s largest Indigenous organisation, CONAIE, are supposed to be nationwide, the most acute impact has been in the northern part of the country, especially Imbabura province, where Noboa won in April’s election with 52 percent of the vote.

On one side is “a president who assumes that after winning the elections he has all of the power at his disposal, who has authoritarian tendencies and no disposition for dialogue”, said Farith Simon, a law professor at the Universidad San Francisco in Quito.

On the other side, he said, is “an Indigenous sector that has shown itself to be uncompromising and is looking to co-govern through force”.

Protesters attacked Noboa’s motorcade with rocks on Tuesday, adding to the tension. The administration denounced it as an assassination attempt.

The Indigenous organisation CONAIE, however, rejected that assertion. It insists its protests are peaceful and that it is the government that is responding with force.

What led to the demonstrations?

The protests were organised by CONAIE, an acronym that translates to the Confederation of Indigenous Nationalities of Ecuador.

The group mobilised its supporters after Noboa decreed the elimination of a subsidy on diesel on September 12.

Diesel is critical to the agricultural, fishing and transport sectors in Ecuador, where many Indigenous people work. The move raised the cost of a gallon (3.8 litres) of diesel to $2.80 from $1.80, which CONAIE said hit the poor the hardest.

The government tried to calm the backlash by offering some handouts, and unions did not join the demonstrations. The confederation rejected the government’s “gifts” and called for a general strike.

What are the protests like?

The Indigenous confederation is a structured movement that played a central role in violent uprisings in 2019 and 2022 that nearly ousted then-Presidents Lenin Moreno and Guillermo Lasso.

Its methods are not always seen as productive, particularly when protests turn violent.

Daniel Crespo, an international relations professor at the Universidad de los Hemisferios in Quito, said the confederation’s demands to return the fuel subsidy, cut a tax and stop mining are efforts to “impose their political agenda”.

The confederation says it’s just trying to fight for a “decent life” for all Ecuadorians, even if that means opposing Noboa’s economic and social policies.

What are Noboa’s policies?

Noboa is a 37-year-old, politically conservative millionaire heir to a banana fortune. He started his second term in May amid high levels of violence.

One of the steps he has taken is raising the value-added tax rate to 15 percent from 12 percent, arguing that the additional funds are needed to fight crime. He has also fired thousands of government workers and restructured the executive branch.

The president has opted for a heavy-handed approach to making these changes and rejected calls for dialogue. He said, “The law awaits those who choose violence. Those who act like criminals will be treated like criminals.”

What has been the fallout?

A protester died last week, and soldiers were caught on video attacking a man who tried to help him.

The images, along with generally aggressive actions by security forces confronting protesters, have fuelled anger and drawn criticism about excessive use of force from organisations within Ecuador and abroad.

The Attorney General’s Office said it was investigating the protester’s death.

Experts warn that the situation could grow more violent if the protests that have largely been in rural areas arrive in the cities, especially the capital, where frustrated civilians could take to the streets to confront protesters.

Some party needs to intervene and lead the different sides to dialogue, perhaps the Catholic Church or civil society organisations, Crespo and Simon agreed.

A government official in Ecuador has accused protesters of attempting to attack President Daniel Noboa, alleging that a group of approximately 500 people surrounded his vehicle and threw rocks.

The attack, which unfolded in the south-central province of Canar, took place as Noboa arrived in the canton of El Tambo for an event about water treatment and sewage.

Environment and Energy Minister Ines Manzano said Noboa’s car showed “signs of bullet damage”. In a statement to the press, she explained that she filed a report alleging an assassination attempt had taken place.

“Shooting at the president’s car, throwing stones, damaging state property — that’s just criminal,” Manzano said. “We will not allow this.”

The president’s office also issued a statement after the attack on Tuesday, pledging to pursue accountability against those involved.

“Obeying orders to radicalise, they attacked a presidential motorcade carrying civilians. They attempted to forcibly prevent the delivery of a project intended to improve the lives of a community,” the statement, published on social media, said.

“All those arrested will be prosecuted for terrorism and attempted murder,” it added.

Five people, according to Manzano, have been detained following the incident. Noboa was not injured.

Video published by the president’s office online shows Noboa’s motorcade navigating a roadway lined with protesters, some of whom picked up rocks and threw them at the vehicles, causing fractures to form on the glass.

A separate image showed a silver SUV with a shattered passenger window and a shattered windscreen. It is not clear from the images whether a bullet had been fired.

Noboa, Ecuador’s youngest-ever president, was re-elected in April after a heated run-off election against left-wing rival Luisa Gonzalez.

May marked the start of his first full term in office. Previously, Noboa, a conservative candidate who had only served a single term in the National Assembly, had been elected to serve the remainder of Guillermo Lasso’s term — a period of around 18 months — after the former president dissolved his government.

Combatting crime has been a centrepiece of Noboa’s pitch for the presidency. Ecuador, formerly considered an “island of peace” in South America, has seen a spike in homicide rates as criminal organisations seek to expand their drug trafficking routes through the country.

Ecuador’s economy has also struggled to recover following the COVID-19 pandemic.

But Noboa has faced multiple protests since taking office.

In recent weeks, for example, he has faced outcry over his decision to end a fuel subsidy that critics say helps lower-income families.

Noboa’s government, however, has argued that the subsidy drove up government costs without reaching those who need it. In a presidential statement on September 12, officials accused the subsidy of being “diverted to smuggling, illegal mining and undue benefits”.

The statement also said that the subsidies represented $1.1bn that could instead be used to compensate small farmers and transportation workers directly.

But the Confederation of Indigenous Nationalities of Ecuador (CONAIE), the country’s most powerful Indigenous advocacy organisation, launched a strike in response to the news of the subsidy’s end.

It called upon its supporters to lead protests and block roadways as a way of expressing their outrage.

Nevertheless, on Tuesday, the group denied that there had been an organised attack on Noboa’s motorcade. Instead, CONAIE argued that government violence had been “orchestrated” against the people who had gathered to protest Noboa.

“We denounce that at least five comrades have been arbitrarily detained,” CONAIE posted on X. “Among the attacked are elderly women.”

It noted that Tuesday marked the 16th day of protest. “The people are not the enemy,” it added.

CONAIE had largely backed Noboa’s rival Gonzalez in the April election, though some of its affiliate groups splintered in favour of Noboa.

This is not the first time that Noboa’s government has claimed the president was the target of an assassination attempt.

In April, shortly after the run-off vote, it issued a “maximum alert” claiming that assassins had entered the country from Mexico to destabilise his administration.

At the time, the administration blamed “sore losers” from the election for fomenting the alleged plot.

The right-wing Noboa had defeated left-wing candidate Luisa Gonzalez amid allegations of electoral fraud.

Daniel Noboa, Ecuador’s youngest-ever president and heir to a prominent banana-exporting fortune, has been sworn in for his first full term in office, pledging to intensify his government’s battle against powerful drug gangs while reviving the struggling economy.

In a ceremony at the National Assembly in Quito on Saturday, the right-wing president was sworn in by Assembly President Niels Olsen Peet, who draped the presidential sash across his shoulders before the two raised clasped hands in a symbolic gesture of unity.

Noboa, 37, won the election in April’s, securing a new term after completing the final 18 months of his predecessor’s tenure, defeating left-wing candidate, Luisa Gonzalez, despite her allegations of electoral fraud.

Speaking to lawmakers, Noboa pledged to make a sharp reduction in violent crime a cornerstone of his administration.

“The progressive reduction of homicides will be a non-negotiable goal,” Noboa declared. “We will maintain our fight against drug trafficking, seize illegal weapons, ammunition, and explosives, and exercise greater control at the country’s ports.”

Ecuador, once considered one of the more stable countries in the region, has in recent years faced a sharp rise in violence, with drug cartels, including the powerful from Mexico, exploiting porous borders and weak institutions to expand their influence.

Noboa has responded with militarised crackdowns, deploying the armed forces onto the streets and tightening security at key infrastructure hubs.

The president’s security strategy has drawn comparisons to El Salvador’s controversial anti-gang measures, which have been praised by some for reducing crime but condemned by rights groups over mass detentions and alleged abuses.

Noboa has cited El Salvador, as well as the United States and Israel, as strategic partners in Ecuador’s security overhaul.

His administration has also hired Erik Prince, founder of private military contractor Blackwater, to advise Ecuadorian security forces, a move that has raised alarm among opposition politicians and human rights advocates, who warn of creeping militarisation and lack of oversight.

While Noboa has claimed a 15 percent drop in violent deaths during 2024, government figures show a 58 percent increase in killings during the first four months of 2025 compared with the same period last year, with 3,094 recorded deaths.