nl west

SAN FRANCISCO — This is the time to bring on the rivals. The Dodgers are used to taking on challengers down the pennant stretch: the San Francisco Giants and San Diego Padres — and, in a previous version of the National League West, the Atlanta Braves and Cincinnati Reds.

The final two weeks of the regular season are upon us. The Dodgers have one remaining head-to-head matchup that really matters — and that series starts Monday at Dodger Stadium, against the Philadelphia Phillies.

The Phillies?

The Phillies have not been realigned into the NL West. However, although the three division champions automatically qualify for the playoffs, the two with the best records earn a bye into the division series. The division champion with the third-best record — right now, that would be the Dodgers — must play in the first round.

The Milwaukee Brewers, the presumed champions of the NL Central, boast the best record in baseball. The Phillies, the presumed champions of the NL East, lead the Dodgers by 4 ½ games. The Dodgers have 13 games to play.

The Dodgers got a bye and lost in the division series in 2022. They got a bye and lost in the division series in 2023. They got a bye and came within one game of elimination in the division series in 2024. Would they be better off not getting a bye and playing in the first round?

“There is not a question in my mind that that does not make sense,” Andrew Friedman, the Dodgers’ president of baseball operations, told me last week. “It is better for your World Series odds to not play those three games.”

The five days off that come with a bye can disrupt the timing of hitters. They also can allow time for injured and weary players to recover — that could be critical for Dodgers catcher Will Smith, in particular — and for the Dodgers to arrange their starting rotation just the way they might like it. And, of course, you can’t be eliminated in the first round if you don’t play in it.

“We have made our life more difficult to this point,” Friedman said, “but I still think we have a really good run in us, and we’ll make it competitive. So obviously these three games against Philly are really important in that.”

What if the three games against the Phillies go poorly?

Even if they don’t, the Dodgers might not win the division. The Padres are closer to the Dodgers than the Dodgers are to the Phillies.

San Diego trails the Dodgers by 2½ games in the NL West.

If the Padres win the NL West, how much would that hurt the Dodgers’ chances of a lengthy postseason run?

Not much, if at all. Both teams almost certainly would end up in the wild-card round.

The NL West champion would play the last team into the NL field, most likely the Giants or New York Mets and maybe even the Reds or Arizona Diamondbacks, with the chance the opponent exhausted its pitching just to get into the playoffs. The other team would play the Chicago Cubs, and would avoid the possibility of facing the surging Phillies until the NLCS.

If the NL West comes down to the last day or two, the Dodgers would have to determine whether to use their best starters on that final weekend or line them up for the wild-card series.

In that scenario, what might be the decisive factor in the Dodgers’ calculus?

The NL West champion would play all three games of the wild-card round at home; the runner-up likely would play all three games on the road. The Dodgers are 48-26 at home, 36-39 on the road. (The Padres are 47-28 at home, 35-40 on the road.)

Would there be any precedent for the Dodgers not minding if the Padres won the NL West?

In 1996, the Dodgers and Padres were tied for the NL West lead heading into the final day of the regular season, with the two teams facing one another. Both teams were guaranteed a playoff spot.

In Game 162, the Dodgers started Ramon Martinez — undefeated in his previous nine starts — then removed him after one inning.

The Padres won the game, and with it the division. The Dodgers started Martinez in their playoff opener three days later. They lost that game, and they were swept in the series by the Braves. The winning pitchers in that series, in order: John Smoltz, Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine.

How many games are the Dodgers on pace to win?

Ninety-one.

In Friedman’s previous 10 seasons running the Dodgers, what is the fewest number of games they have won?

Ninety-one, in 2016.

How did the Dodgers do that October?

They earned a bye into the division series, in which they beat the Washington Nationals. They lost to the Chicago Cubs in the league championship series.

The Dodgers finally had their storybook moment.

Until the Angels rewrote it with a walk-off ending.

In the top of the ninth inning at Angel Stadium on Tuesday night, Shohei Ohtani lifted the Dodgers to the verge of a badly needed win, breaking a tie score with the kind of moment that could have jump-started the stretch run of their season.

With former Dodgers closer Kenley Jansen on the mound, and a split crowd in Anaheim rising to its feet, Ohtani blasted a go-ahead home run deep to right field. He flipped his bat. The Dodgers’ dugout went wild. After so many recent blown leads and late-game meltdowns in recent weeks, the team was three outs away from finally turning the tide.

Instead, the Dodgers found yet a new way to crumble.

Once again, they let a winnable game go meekly by the wayside.

In the bottom of the ninth, the Angels tied the score after Alex Vesia gave up a leadoff single, a walk and an eventual Nolan Schanuel sacrifice fly.

In the bottom of the 10th, they sealed their fifth-straight victory over the Dodgers this season on Jo Adell’s big-bouncing, walk-off RBI single.

A 7-6 loss for the Dodgers, that sent their spiraling season to a new dismal low.

Now, the Dodgers have lost three in a row and 20 of 32 since July 4. Now, what was once a nine-game lead in the National League West has been completely obliterated. The Dodgers and San Diego Padres are tied atop the standings. The Padres will come to Dodger Stadium this weekend with all the momentum, where a scuffling Dodgers club will await them.

Tuesday featured many more deflating subplots for the club.

Emmet Sheehan gave up five runs in a five-inning start. The team erased one early two-run deficit, only to go down two runs again. The lineup left the bases loaded with the score tied to end the top of the fifth inning. Ohtani lined into a soul-crushing triple-play with two aboard in the sixth.

But nothing will sting like the final two innings — when a potential turning-point moment instead resulted in more familiar heartache.

SAN DIEGO — Dave Roberts wasn’t pretending to be calm. He was calm.

None of this was new to him, the depleted starting rotation, the fatigued bullpen, the division rivals within striking distance.

Under similar circumstances in past seasons, Roberts pointed out, “We’ve gotten to the other side.”

The Dodgers won a World Series like this last year. They have won the National League West in 12 of the last 13 seasons.

They usually reach “the other side.”

So rather than panic, Roberts waits. He waits for the end of a particularly difficult 26-game stretch, and when Shohei Ohtani, Tyler Glasnow and Blake Snell can pitch again.

Roberts won’t say this publicly, but the Dodgers just have to tread water until they are whole.

They claimed a 5-2 victory over the San Diego Padres on Wednesday to win for the second time in their three-game series at Petco Park, preserving their lead in the NL West.

The Dodgers host the second-place San Francisco Giants in a three-game series that starts Friday and the third-place Padres in a four-game series that opens Monday, after which their schedule will become noticeably softer.

Their remaining opponents before the All-Star break: the Washington Nationals, Colorado Rockies, Kansas City Royals, Chicago White Sox, Houston Astros and Milwaukee Brewers. The post-All-Star Game schedule is extremely manageable as well.

Provided a couple of their starting pitchers return as anticipated, the Dodgers should be able to not just win their division but also secure a top-two seed in the NL, which would give them a first-round bye in the playoffs. As it is, the Dodgers are 41-27, only ½ game behind the Chicago Cubs, the league’s current No. 2 team.

Dodgers players have taken on Roberts’ understated confidence and make-do-with-what-you-have approach, which explains how the team has survived a 19-game stretch in which every opponent had a winning record. The Dodgers were 10-9 in those games.

“Character,” Roberts said.

Roberts specifically pointed to Teoscar Hernández, who broke out of a slump Wednesday to hit a key three-run home run; to Freddie Freeman, who he revealed is now dealing with a quadriceps injury in addition to his ankle problems; to Mookie Betts, who has continued to play high-level shortstop while playing with a broken toe.

“Guys are not running from the middle part of the season, the stretch we’re going through,” Roberts said. “We’re just finding ways to win.”

Teoscar Hernández circles the bases after his three-run homer.

(Derrick Tuskan / Associated Press)

The series win against the Padres was also a credit to Roberts’ ability, and willingness, to play the long game.

With Tony Gonsolin put on the injured list last week, the Dodgers were forced to schedule two bullpen games in San Diego. By punting on the first and refraining from using any of his go-to relievers in a loss, Roberts ensured his team would be positioned to win the series finale.

Again, this was nothing new, as Roberts basically forfeited games in both the NL Championship Series and World Series last year with the remainder of the series in mind.

Roberts elected to send opener Ben Casparius back to the mound to pitch a fourth inning on Wednesday rather than replace him with Jack Dreyer, whom Roberts has grown to trust. The extra inning made a difference. Lou Trivino pitched to the bottom of the Padres’ lineup in the fifth inning, allowing Roberts to deploy Dreyer against the heart of the order in the sixth.

When Michael Kopech walked the bases loaded in the seventh inning, Roberts responded with the necessary degree of urgency rather than allow the recently activated Kopech to try to pitch his way out of trouble. Roberts summoned Anthony Banda, who retired Luis Arráez and Manny Machado to maintain the Dodgers’ 4-2 advantage.

“The bullpen has certainly been used and pushed,” Roberts said. “I just think it speaks to the character.”

And it says something about the manager as well.

Roberts is now in his 10th season as the manager of the Dodgers. He has managed 1,426 games for them in the regular season and another 100 in the postseason. At this point, there’s not much he hasn’t seen, including what the team is dealing with now.