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When a state’s political leadership announces a ceasefire and its military keeps firing, the instinct is to reach for deception as the explanation. In Iran’s case, the more unsettling answer may be structural. The gap between what Iranian presidents say and what Iranian forces do reflects not a coordinated lie but a command architecture deliberately engineered to operate without central direction. In a serious conflict, the consequences of that architecture would be felt well beyond Iran’s borders.

A Command Architecture Designed to Survive Decapitation

In September 2008, IRGC Commander General Mohammad Ali Jafari oversaw a sweeping restructuring that divided the force into thirty-one provincial corps, each empowered to conduct military operations within its zone without requiring authorization from the center. As Michael Connell of the Center for Naval Analyses noted in his analysis for the United States Institute of Peace, the intent was to strengthen unit cohesion and ensure operational continuity under degraded command conditions. He flagged explicitly that the decentralization could produce unintended escalation dynamics, particularly in the Persian Gulf.

That warning deserves serious attention. The IRGC’s Mosaic Defense doctrine was not designed to make Iran more responsive to political leadership in a crisis. It was designed to ensure that military operations could continue regardless of what happened to that leadership. A force structured that way does not stop firing because a president gives a speech.

The Apology That Wasn’t

The internal contradiction becomes clearest when traced through a hypothetical cascade. A president announces a ceasefire and attributes the directive to an Interim Leadership Council. A fellow council member publicly declares that heavy strikes will continue. A hardline cleric addresses the president directly, calling his position untenable. By the time the president’s original statement is reposted, the ceasefire language has been quietly removed.

The IRGC’s own posture in this scenario resolves the ambiguity on structural grounds. It endorses the president’s language, then appends a caveat that renders it inoperative: all US and Israeli military bases and interests across the region remain primary targets. Since every GCC state hosts American forces, that framing preserves full operational freedom while allowing the presidency to project restraint. The contradiction is not incidental. It is the doctrine functioning as designed.

The Theological Dimension

Iran is not simply a military organization. It is a theocratic state whose constitutional legitimacy flows from velayat-e faqih, the guardianship of the Islamic jurist, which vests supreme authority in a single clerical figure whose religious and political mandates are inseparable. Remove that figure, and the system’s legitimating architecture is suspended rather than transferred. The Assembly of Experts is constitutionally mandated to elect a successor, but wartime conditions would disrupt that process at precisely the moment its resolution matters most.

A RAND Corporation analysis prepared for the Office of the Secretary of Defense identified the IRGC as the institution best positioned to shape any post-Khamenei transition, with the organizational reach and economic weight to determine outcomes that civilian institutions cannot contest. The result, in a decapitation scenario, is a theocratic state operating without its theological anchor and a military operating under pre-delegated authority with no one capable of recalling it.

Durability Without Effect

The Mosaic Defense doctrine would prove, above all, durable. A decentralized force can survive catastrophic leadership losses and sustain operations. But durability is not the same as capability, and sustained fire is not the same as strategic effect.

Iran’s theory of regional attrition, the calculation that sustained strikes against Gulf infrastructure and American basing would fracture GCC cohesion and coerce Arab neighbors toward neutrality, has produced no evidence of working. The GCC bloc has held. Individual member states have coordinated their responses rather than fractured under pressure. The country absorbing the sharpest volume of Iranian strike activity, the UAE, has demonstrated air defense performance that has exceeded even optimistic prewar assessments. Publicly available figures suggest UAE systems have defeated upward of ninety percent of inbound threats, a result that reflects years of sustained investment, deep integration with American and Israeli platforms, and an operational tempo that has stress-tested those systems at genuine scale.

The picture that emerges is not one of Iran winning a war of attrition. It is one of an Iran burning through accessible inventory, losing launch infrastructure faster than it can regenerate, and discovering that the regional architecture it spent years attempting to destabilize has proven considerably more resilient than it calculated.

That resilience carries its own strategic meaning. A weakened force operating under pre-delegated authority, without a supreme leader to set limits, remains dangerous in a narrow tactical sense. But it is operating without a coherent end state, and the environment it faces is not the one it anticipated. The GCC’s collective posture and the demonstrated effectiveness of layered air defense across the Gulf have closed off the strategic outcomes Iran’s doctrine was written to achieve.

The scenario is instructive for what it reveals about the limits of decentralized military design. A force built to keep firing regardless of political direction is also a force that cannot be steered toward an exit. But the Gulf states have demonstrated something of equal importance in response: that resilience, properly built and consistently resourced, can outlast a doctrine designed for chaos, and that the regional order Iran sought to unravel has shown itself capable of absorbing the blow.

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said air-to-air missiles and a reconnaissance plane will be sent to region amid conflict with Iran.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said Australia will deploy a long-range reconnaissance aircraft and send air-to-air missiles to help countries in the Gulf region defend against Iranian attacks.

“The Iranian conflict in the Middle East began just over a week ago, and Iran’s reprisal attacks continue to escalate, already at a scale and depth we haven’t seen before. Twelve countries across the region, from Cyprus through to the Gulf, are continuing to be targeted,” Albanese said in a news conference on Tuesday.

He said the Royal Australian Air Force will send an E7A Wedgetail surveillance aircraft and supporting personnel to “protect and secure airspace above the Gulf” for the next four weeks, and help the region with its “collective self-defence”.

Australia will also send advanced medium-range air-to-air missiles to the United Arab Emirates, he said, following a phone call with UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan.

Albanese cited the 115,000 Australians living in the Middle East – among them, 24,000 in the UAE – as a major factor behind the deployment of military assets.

“Helping Australians means also helping the United Arab Emirates and other Gulf nations defend themselves against what are unprovoked attacks,” he told reporters, stressing that the deployments were for defensive purposes only.

“My government has been clear: We are not taking offensive action against Iran, and we are clear we are not deploying Australian troops on the ground in Iran,” he said.

Some 2,600 Australians have left the Middle East since last week, Albanese said, but “significant challenges” remain in helping those who want to leave but remain in the region.

The prime minister’s announcement was immediately slammed by the opposition Greens party, which said Australia risks becoming embroiled in another US-led “forever war”.

Australia joined the US-led invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq in 2001 and 2003, and lost more than 50 personnel during the conflicts, according to the Australian War Memorial.

Greens Senator Larissa Waters said she feared more Australian lives were at risk with the announced deployments, which the government, led by the Labor Party, said would be accompanied by 85 Australian personnel.

“Australians do not want to get dragged into Trump and Netanyahu’s illegal war on Iran. Labor shouldn’t be sending troops to help a military that’s killed 150 schoolchildren in a primary school bombing. That will only escalate an illegal conflict that’s already spiralling out of control, and leave Australia trapped in yet another forever war,” Waters said in a statement on Tuesday.

“Every day Trump and Netanyahu’s demands of Australia keep growing. It was refuelling US spy planes yesterday, a recon jet and missiles today, and could be ever more troops tomorrow. Labor has no red lines when it comes to appeasing Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu,” she said, referring to the US president and Israeli prime minister, respectively.

Albanese said separately on Tuesday that Canberra has formally granted asylum to five members of Iran’s women’s football team, who were visiting Australia for the Asian Football Confederation Women’s Asian Cup 2026 in Queensland.

Albanese said the women had been issued with humanitarian visas and moved to a safe location with the assistance of Australian Federal Police.

“Australians have been moved by the plight of these brave women. They’re safe here, and they should feel at home here,” Albanese told reporters.

Modern wars are fought not only with weapons but with assumptions—and the most dangerous assumptions are often invisible to those making them. Donald Rumsfeld’s distinction between known unknowns (questions we recognize but cannot answer) and unknown unknowns (risks we have not even framed as questions) captures something essential about the current confrontation between the United States, Israel, and Iran.

The Nuclear Material Problem

The June 2025 12-day war struck several of Iran’s nuclear facilities but left the most consequential question unanswered: where is the material? The March 2026 campaign has struck deeper, targeting hardened and dispersed sites that June’s operations left intact. Yet the fundamental uncertainty has not resolved—it has compounded. Iran reportedly retains roughly 400 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60%, approaching weapons-grade, and the precise location of that stockpile is now more opaque than before. On March 2, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported the entrance buildings of Iran’s underground Natanz enrichment plant had been bombed, but without inspection access, the agency cannot reconstruct a monitoring baseline.

The strategic paradox is acute. Any Iranian government—this one or a successor—must now confront a nuclear-armed Israel and a United States willing to strike Iranian territory twice in nine months. Under those conditions, nuclear capability looks less like a provocation and more like a rational insurance policy. The war may have permanently entrenched the very incentive it was designed to dismantle. A further risk of escaping conventional arms-control frameworks is if Iranian institutions fragment, specialized nuclear expertise disperses internationally, potentially becoming available to states or non-state actors.

Regime Change and What Follows

The war’s stated objective rests on uncertain ground. Intelligence assessments before the conflict reportedly concluded that even a large-scale assault was unlikely to produce regime collapse—yet the campaign proceeded anyway. The Iranian state has shown remarkable institutional resilience, with no visible defections among senior leadership, a government operating under its constitutional framework, and a regime that has absorbed the Iran-Iraq War, the Green Movement, and decades of sanctions.

War has accelerated the succession question around Ali Khamenei. One trajectory involves Mojtaba Khamenei, whose rise would mean dynastic continuity rather than transformation; another sees the IRGC consolidating power—equally misaligned with Western hopes. The question of what comes after was not answered before the bombs fell.

Retaliation, Major-Power Shadows, and Strategic Incoherence

Iran’s retaliation has demonstrated its asymmetric reach. The IRGC claims attacks on at least 27 bases hosting American troops across the region, alongside Israeli military facilities. Tehran appears to be pacing its response, sustaining an attrition campaign designed to exhaust interceptor stocks rather than overwhelm them in a single strike.

The major power dimensions compound this. Russia has reportedly been providing intelligence on American naval deployments; Chinese-linked entities have allegedly tracked US forces via satellite. Meanwhile, strategic incoherence in Washington compounds every other risk. Vice President J.D. Vance and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth have framed this as a limited campaign against nuclear infrastructure; Trump has simultaneously floated regime change on social media.

The Munitions Race

The deepest structural vulnerability may not lie on the battlefield but in the arithmetic of an industrial system never designed to fight this kind of war. The first 36 hours consumed more than 3,000 precision-guided munitions and interceptors. Joint Chiefs Chairman General Dan Caine had warned that stockpiles were already significantly depleted before the first strike. Secretary Marco Rubio subsequently acknowledged that Iran produces an estimated 100 missiles a month versus roughly six or seven high-end interceptors that American industry can manufacture in the same period.

That deficit has a history. The US likely expended 100 to 150 THAAD interceptors and 80 SM-3s supporting Israel during June’s Twelve-Day War. Those stocks were never fully replenished. The bottlenecks are physical as well as financial. Lockheed Martin’s plan to raise PAC-3 MSE production to 2,000 units per year addresses a six-to-seven-year horizon, not the current emergency.

The drone dimension adds a layer officials have been slow to acknowledge. Hegseth and Caine admitted in a closed-door briefing that Iran’s Shahed drones present a challenge US air defenses cannot fully meet. The Shahed flies low and slow—hard to detect and poorly matched to the high-end interceptors THAAD and SM-3 are optimized to defeat. Intercepting a drone can cost roughly five times what it costs to manufacture one.

This crystallizes the war’s most consequential known unknown: how much of Iran’s arsenal reflects genuine capability, and how much reflects deliberate restraint? The IDF assessed Iran possessed roughly 2,500 ballistic missiles on February 11.

The search for emergency solutions has produced one remarkable geopolitical inversion. The Pentagon has approached Ukraine about purchasing drone interceptors. They are low-cost systems Ukrainian manufacturers developed specifically to hunt Shaheds, built from years of adapting to exactly the threat now confounding American air defenses in the Gulf. The US is buying drone killers from a country it recently all but abandoned! The implications extend to the Indo-Pacific. Every interceptor fired over the Gulf of Bahrain is one fewer available in the Taiwan Strait.

The Energy Shock

The Strait of Hormuz has moved from a textbook chokepoint to a live emergency. Tanker traffic has come to a near standstill. War-risk insurance premiums have made commercial passage unviable even where it remains physically possible. At least five tankers have been struck across the Gulf, the Gulf of Oman, and nearby waters. Approximately 20 million barrels of oil per day—a fifth of global consumption—normally transit the strait, alongside roughly 20% of global LNG trade. Traders are warning that oil prices could surge past $100 a barrel if the conflict in Iran continues to escalate. Goldman Sachs Research estimates that a full one-month closure would add $15 per barrel, assuming no compensating measures like spare pipeline utilization or releases from strategic petroleum reserves. Bank of America sees tail risk far higher, estimating a prolonged shutdown could add $40–$80 per barrel above current prices.

The LNG dimension may prove more immediately damaging than oil. QatarEnergy has halted production at Ras Laffan, the world’s largest LNG facility, after Iranian drone attacks. This has already caused European natural gas futures to spike. If global LNG tightens, Europe must compete with Asian buyers on price. That competition may, in turn, force Europe back toward Russian gas, quietly reversing one of the most consequential geopolitical achievements of the post-Ukraine sanctions era.

The exposure is global and unevenly distributed. China, India, Japan, and South Korea account for roughly 75% of Hormuz crude exports and 59% of its LNG flows. South Korea has warned it could exhaust LNG reserves within nine days and has announced a 100 trillion won stabilization fund. India is pivoting toward Russian crude. These developments structurally benefit Moscow regardless of the war’s outcome.

The fertilizer dimension compounds the energy shock with a slower fuse. Nitrogen fertilizers are manufactured from natural gas; roughly a third of globally traded urea transits Hormuz. QatarEnergy’s halt removes fertilizer output simultaneously with LNG. Urea prices have already surged $60 to $80 per ton at New Orleans, with the spring planting window closing. The food-price consequences will not appear in grocery stores for months. But they are already locked in.

The Gulf Security Paradox

For decades the Gulf states managed their rivalry with Iran below the threshold of open confrontation, relying on the American security umbrella while avoiding direct entanglement. The war has collapsed that strategy. The Gulf states did not arrive at this crisis as Iran’s adversaries but rather as reluctant bystanders who had invested enormous diplomatic capital in preventing it. They gave ironclad assurances to Tehran, both before the war and up to its eve, that their territories would not serve as launchpads. That Iran responded by striking these same neighbors is a strategic miscalculation of historic proportions and a moral failure that may poison relations for a generation.

This has opened a structural debate now conducted in public. Is American military presence a protective shield or a magnet for retaliation? Citizens and analysts are asking why Gulf states should bear the risk of hosting US forces when Washington appears unable to protect them. Undoubtedly, Tehran understands this dynamic. Drone strikes on UAE-based data centers targeted Gulf publics’ confidence in the connectivity model as much as American commercial interests. The UAE and Saudi Arabia have staked their post-oil futures on projecting stability and attracting mobile capital. Intercepting most of the incoming fire is not sufficient when global firms are deciding where to invest next decade.

The crisis confronts the Gulf Cooperation Council with a strategic fork. One path leads toward deeper collective security, featuring integrated missile defense, expanded intelligence sharing, and coordinated maritime protection that could reduce dependence on any single external patron. The other leads toward renewed fragmentation as internal rivalries re-emerge.

Former Qatari prime minister Hamad bin Jassim bin Jaber Al Thani warned that the Gulf “must not be dragged into a direct confrontation with Iran,” arguing that such a clash would “deplete the resources of both sides and provide an opportunity for outside forces to control us under the pretext of helping us escape the crisis.” Yet the same crisis that could finally catalyze genuine Gulf collective security could just as easily deepen the divisions that have historically prevented it.

The Mediator’s Dilemma and the Meta-Unknown

The conflict has also damaged the diplomatic architecture that previously helped manage US-Iran tensions. Oman and Qatar built genuine credibility as intermediaries through years of patient back-channel work. Effective mediation requires neutrality. When conflict spreads into the territory of potential mediators, that credibility erodes. Iran’s decision to strike the very states whose neutrality made diplomacy possible may have burned the bridges needed to end the war—which is perhaps the most consequential unknown unknown in the entire conflict, second only to the US twice striking Iran in the span of nine months while negotiations were still ongoing.

At the deepest level lies a question no intelligence assessment can answer: whether the strategic logic of the war is coherent at all. Negotiations failed because each side demanded outcomes the other could not accept. The same incompatibility that made diplomacy impossible may make military victory equally elusive. Iran cannot surrender unconditionally without ceasing to be the Islamic Republic. And the conditions that make nuclear deterrence attractive to any Iranian government—this one or a successor—have not been removed by the strikes; they have been reinforced.

Conclusion

In sum, the US-Israeli campaign against Iran has illuminated the limits of military certainty. Known unknowns—munition shortages, asymmetric retaliation, and energy vulnerabilities—interact with unknown unknowns—nuclear dispersal, regime succession, and Gulf fragmentation—to create a conflict whose trajectory is inherently unpredictable. Rather than eliminating threats, the strikes may have entrenched incentives for nuclear retention, incentivized strategic caution, and stressed regional and global systems. The coherence of the war itself is in question, as military action and diplomacy pull in contradictory directions. Ultimately, the conflict underscores that modern warfare is as much about managing uncertainties as it is about destroying targets.

The reported idea of a special operation to seize Iran’s uranium should alarm anyone who still thinks there is a line between pressure and recklessness. Sending foreign forces into Iranian territory to capture nuclear material would be far beyond coercion. It would be war in plain sight. That risk looks even sharper when it is paired with talk of unconditional surrender and a revived maximum pressure campaign. Officials call that flexibility. In practice, it often creates confusion and a dangerous illusion of control.

Strategic Ambiguity Has Limits

Trump has long preferred threat inflation as a negotiating tool, and his administration’s National Security Presidential Memorandum on Iran makes clear that Washington wants to deny Tehran every path to a bomb. But there is a difference between pressure meant to shape diplomacy and rhetoric that drifts toward occupation logic. A raid assumes the United States can enter a sovereign state, take possession of fissile material, and leave without igniting a larger conflict. That is not strategy. It is a gamble.

A Raid Would Not Stay Small

Iran is not an isolated militia camp. It is a large state with layered security organs, missile capacity, regional partners, and a long memory of external intervention. Any attempt to seize uranium by force would expose American troops, bases, shipping lanes, diplomats, and partners to retaliation across several fronts. Even before talk of a raid, Washington and Tehran had been engaged in indirect nuclear talks in Oman. Replacing diplomacy with a ground mission would not create leverage. It would destroy what remains of a controlled bargaining space.

The Nuclear Picture Is Already Murky

The hardest fact in this debate is that the nuclear picture is already uncertain. In its February 2026 safeguards report, the IAEA said it could not verify the current status of facilities hit in June 2025. Reuters later highlighted that same report’s estimate that Iran had 440.9 kilograms enriched up to 60 percent before the strikes, while the Associated Press noted the wider stockpile had reached 9,874.9 kilograms of enriched uranium in total. Reuters also reported a cat-and-mouse hunt for missing material and confirmed that tunnel entrances at Isfahan were hit. Those facts do not make a commando operation look cleaner. They make it look less knowable.

Force Has Already Damaged Oversight

This is the contradiction hawks avoid. Military action may damage buildings, but it can also damage the inspection system needed to track what survives. The IAEA chief said that returning to Iranian sites was the top priority after the attacks because the agency had lost visibility. Reuters warned even before the war that any new Iran deal would have to address serious watchdog blind spots. Rafael Grossi had already reminded the Security Council that nuclear facilities must never be attacked and later stressed that inspectors must be allowed to do their job. Once oversight is broken, claims about perfect control become less credible.

Pressure Without Diplomacy Can Harden Iran

Advocates of seizure argue that urgency changes the rules. Their point is easy to grasp. If material has been moved, hidden, or split across sites, then delay is dangerous. But urgency cuts both ways. The less certainty there is, the more any raid grows in scope. A supposedly limited mission can quickly expand into repeated searches, broader strikes, and pressure for a longer presence. That trajectory sits uneasily with both the basic ban on the use of force in the UN Charter and the logic of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, which depends on verification and compliance, not theatrical confiscation. Reuters has also shown that the damage from earlier strikes was difficult to measure and that U.S. officials later said there was no known intelligence that Iran had moved the uranium. That uncertainty is exactly why fantasies of a clean raid should be treated with suspicion.

Containment Is Less Dramatic, but Safer

There is another reason to reject this path. Public overstatement can create policy traps. Trump has already brushed aside internal caution, including when Reuters reported that he said his own intelligence chief was wrong about Iran’s program. Tehran, for its part, has insisted through officials speaking to Reuters that it will not give up enrichment under pressure. That is not a recipe for surrender. It is a recipe for concealment and hardening. Serious policy should focus on intelligence work, restored IAEA access, sustained diplomatic pressure backed by credible penalties, and a clear effort to prevent a regional war that would leave the uranium question even murkier.

The appeal of seizure is obvious. It sounds decisive and final. But nuclear crises rarely yield to cinematic solutions. They are managed through verification, containment, bargaining, and steady pressure, not through fantasies of absolute control. If this idea is truly being weighed in Washington, it should be rejected before rhetoric turns into mission planning. A ground effort to capture uranium inside Iran would not settle the problem. It could widen the war, shatter what diplomacy still exists, and leave the world with the same material, less oversight, and far more bloodshed.

Itamar Greenberg laughed when asked if he thought he should be afraid. The 19-year-old Israeli antiwar activist had just described being spat on in the street and is the target of an online hate campaign.

“Yes!” he finally responded. “If I thought about it, I probably should be. I just don’t have time.”

Voices like Greenberg’s are rare in Israel at a time when public clamour for war is growing, and genocidal language already familiar to millions of Palestinians is reemerging, but with a different target – Iran.

Officially, 11 Israelis have been killed in Iranian strikes since the US and Israel launched their war on Iran on February 28. What the actual number might be, or how many of Iran’s ballistic missiles may have penetrated the country’s Iron Dome defence shield, is unknown.

Speaking at the site of an Iranian missile strike in West Jerusalem, shortly after the start of the US-Israeli attacks on Iran, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu returned to the use of apocalyptic language that has characterised the genocide his country has conducted in Gaza. Comparing Iranians with the Jewish people’s biblical foe, Amalek, who the Jews had been divinely ordered to wipe from the face of the planet, Netanyahu told reporters: “In this week’s Torah portion, we read, “‘Remember what Amalek did to you.’ We remember, and we act.”

So far, Iran claims to have launched strikes across Israel, saying its missiles and drones hit military sites, symbolic infrastructure, and even Netanyahu’s office. Tehran has described the attacks as precise and strategic, rather than indiscriminate and part of a broader regional response. Iran also claims to have targeted locations such as Tel Aviv, Ben Gurion airport and Haifa.

However, Israeli officials have denied many of the specific claims. Netanyahu’s office dismissed Iranian assertions about hitting his office, or affecting his condition, as “fake news”, with stringent reporting restrictions on Iranian strikes within Israel making confirmation either way difficult.

What is clearer is that against the drumbeat of Iranian strikes, the fervour for war appears to be increasing among the public. A poll carried out last week by the Israel Democracy Institute (IDI) suggested overwhelming public support for the war, with 93 percent of Jewish-Israeli respondents expressing support for the strikes on Iran, and 74 percent expressing support for Netanyahu, the country’s historically divisive prime minister.

“No one’s talking about opposition to the war,” Greenberg said, describing an environment in which figures from across Israel’s media and political landscape – with the exception of the left-wing Hadash party and antiwar organisations such as Greenberg’s Mesarvot – had lined up behind the war. “It’s also getting increasingly violent,” he said.

“We held a protest on Tuesday, where the police were already waiting. They beat and arrested us. I was illegally strip-searched,” he said, describing it as efforts intended to humiliate him.

Greenberg is no stranger to such tactics. Six months ago, after being arrested for protesting the genocide in Gaza, prison guards had threatened to carve a Star of David on his face, a permanent reminder of what they thought his priorities should be.

It’s not just antiwar activists who have faced the brunt of the Israeli security establishment’s force.

“The atmosphere is very violent,“ lawmaker Ofer Cassif of the Hadash party told Al Jazeera. “When I leave the house, I’m more worried by the danger posed by a physical attack by fascists than I am by any missile,” he said.

Hadash and lawmakers like Cassif have been targeted by physical threats and attacks throughout the Gaza war. But criticism of the Netanyahu government’s handling of Israeli captives in Gaza meant that opposition to the Gaza war was – comparatively – more socially acceptable. When it comes to Iran, the current climate is toxic, Cassif said.

“We’re often accused of supporting the regime in Tehran,” Cassif explained of the attempts to delegitimise their opposition to the war.

“We’re unequivocally not. We want to see that regime go, but we’re not going to allow Netanyahu to say he’s doing this for the Iranian people. He isn’t. That’s not just rhetoric, that’s fact. The Israeli leadership was just as supportive of the shah as the US, and he was a murderous dictator no less than the current regime,” Cassif said, referring to Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, the leader of Iran before the Islamic revolution.

For now, analysts and observers in Israel describe a society that believes it is almost engaged in a holy war.

“They brought an antiwar activist onto one of the light news programmes,” political analyst Ori Goldberg said from near Tel Aviv, “and she was treated like you would a flat-earther. It’s as if it’s inconceivable that anyone would oppose this war.

“Israel has become a society with no middle ground, no capacity for conversation. It’s as if our entire existence is dependent on our ability to do anything we want. And if the world tries to stop that, then the world’s anti-Semitic, and we all burn.”

The war is now in its 10th day, and Israel and the United States continue to trade blows with Iran, with further missile and drone strikes across the Middle East. Meanwhile, the U.S. military’s ability to execute more rapid heavy airstrikes against Iranian targets was stepped up further today, with the arrival at RAF Fairford in England of three U.S. Air Force B-52H Stratofortress bombers. The aircraft are from the 5th Bomb Wing at Minot Air Force Base, North Dakota.

The bombers arrived at Fairford after U.K. Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer approved so-called defensive U.S. actions against Iranian targets from British bases. This includes striking Iranian missile sites prior to them launching attacks.

The B-52s are part of a growing fleet of U.S. bombers at Fairford. The base received a single B-1B Lancer on Friday, and another two of the swing-wing bombers arrived on Saturday.

As well as making use of RAF Fairford to strike Iran, the change in U.K. government policy covers Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean. Satellite imagery from today that TWZ has reviewed via Planet Labs shows no sign of bombers on the island, but heavy transport aircraft continue to show up there, along with the handful of tankers and five F-16s currently operating from the Indian Ocean outpost.

B-52s have already flown missions against Iran from bases in the United States, delivering AGM-158 JASSM stealthy cruise missiles. These missiles would have launched from outside Iranian airspace, likely over Iraq or another friendly Arab country. You can read more about the implications of standoff strikes such as these in our previous analysis of the enduring Iranian air defense threat here.

As we have discussed repeatedly in recent weeks, having the bombers forward deployed to England and/or Diego Garcia will drastically increase sortie rates and decrease wear-and-tear on the precious bomber fleet compared to flying from the U.S. and back. This will become even more relevant if the B-1 and B-52 force move from making standoff strikes to direct attacks on Iranian targets, even if just over limited parts of the country where air supremacy is more guaranteed.

LATEST UPDATES

We have concluded our rolling coverage in this piece.

UPDATE: 7:30 PM EST –

Trump held a Monday evening press conference to address the situation in the Middle East. Among other things, Trump hinted, without offering specifics, that lasers are now being used for air and missile defense. CENTCOM pushed us to the White House for more details and we are awaiting their response.

Trump also said that Iran has Tomahawk missiles, which it doesn’t.

Here are some of the key takeaways from the briefing—

On when the war will be over:

Very soon. Look, everything they have is gone, including their leadership. In fact, they have two levels of leadership. And even actually, as it turns out, more than that. But two levels of leadership are gone. Most people have never even heard about the leaders that they’re talking about….We’re achieving major strides toward completing our military objective. And some people could say they’re pretty well complete.

On the use of lasers for air and missile defense:

So as you probably saw, they had a tremendous number of missiles, most of which have now been used or destroyed and very unsuccessfully used, because we have been able, for the most part, to shoot them all down. What incredible technology. The Patriots have been unbelievable. And other things. And the laser technology that we have now is incredible. It’s coming out pretty soon. Where literally lasers will do the work of, at a lot less cost, do the work of what the Patriots are doing or what other things are doing.

On whether U.S. Tomahawk missiles destroyed an Iranian girls’ school and whether the U.S. will take responsibility for that.

I will say that the Tomahawk, which is one of the most powerful weapons around, is used by, you know, sold and used by other countries. You know that, and whether it’s Iran who also has some Tomahawks, I wish they had more. But whether it’s Iran or somebody else, the fact that a Tomahawk – a Tomahawk is very generic. It’s sold to other countries, but that’s being investigated right now.

Responding to a reporter about why he is the only one in the administration suggesting that “Iran somehow got its hands on a Tomahawk and bombed its own elementary school on the first day of the war.”

Because I just don’t know enough about it. I think it’s something that I was told is under investigation, but Tomahawks are used by others. As you know, numerous other nations have Tomahawks. They buy them from us. But I will certainly – whatever the report shows – I’m willing to live with that report.

On whether the new Supreme Leader “has a target on his back.”

I don’t want to say whether or not he does, because that would be inappropriate. 

On how many U.S. troop deaths he is willing to accept in this war.

Well, as I said before, when you have conflicts like this, you always have death. And I was in Dover yesterday, I met the parents, and they were unbelievable people. They were unbelievable people, but they all had one thing in common. They said to me, one thing every single one, finish the job. Sir, please finish the job. And I’ll leave you at that. 

UPDATE: 5:40 PM EST –

“We’re crushing the enemy in an overwhelming display of technical skill and military force,” Trump told the Republican House leaders.

He also extolled the virtues of the B-2 Spirit stealth bombers, saying “Israel would have been wiped out” without them.

Australia will deploy a surveillance aircraft and supporting ADF personnel to the Middle East for at least a month, as well as provide air-to-air missiles to the United Arab Emirates, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said.

Albanese said an E-7 Wedgetail radar jet would help provide long range reconnaissance capability to help “secure the airspace above the Gulf.”

“The Wedgetail and supporting Australian Defence Force personnel will be deployed for an initial four weeks in support of the collective self defence of Gulf nations. Additionally, in response to a request, my government intends to provide advanced, medium range air to air missiles to the United Arab Emirates,” he explained.

CENTCOM released its latest operational update. So far, more than 5,000 targets have been hit, including 50 Iranian vessels damaged or destroyed, the command stated.

UPDATE: 4:58 PM EST –

Speaking to Republican leaders today, Trump called Epic Fury “a short-term excursion.”

“We’re making America great again,” the president proclaimed. “We’re doing it much faster than we thought, and it’s better, stronger. Our country is doing really well, at a level that nobody thought. We took a little excursion because we felt we had to do that to get rid of some people. And I think you’ll see it’s going to be a short term excursion. How good is our military? In my first term, we rebuilt our military, and I didn’t know I’d be using it so much in the second term. But we have a military like no other as not even close.”

With Trump hinting that the war could soon be over, Israeli officials are racing to hit as many targets as possible, I24 News Diplomatic Correspondent Guy Azriel stated on X.

The Lebanese government “proposed direct negotiations with Israel — through the Trump administration — aimed at ending the war and reaching a peace agreement,” Axios reported, citing five sources with knowledge of the matter.

If the war ended today, it would take two weeks to restore Persian Gulf shipping, and another two months to get oil production back to normal levels, The Wall Street Journal reported.

If the war ended today with Iran’s complete and total surrender, Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic would take two weeks to return to normal and Gulf oil production two months to get back to pre-war levels. And that’s optimistic. https://t.co/o3CKt61EZn

— Michael Amon (@michaelkamon) March 9, 2026

Iran says it is prepared to form a joint team with Turkey to investigate “allegations” of Iranian missile attacks on Turkey.

IRAN’S PRESIDENT SAYS DURING PHONE CALL WITH TURKEY’S ERDOGAN THAT IRAN IS PREPARED TO FORM JOINT TEAM TO INVESTIGATE “ALLEGATIONS” OF IRANIAN MISSILE ATTACKS ON TURKEY – IRANIAN STATE MEDIA

— Phil Stewart (@phildstewart) March 9, 2026

The White House posted a video on X showing what appears to be targets hit by F-22 Raptor stealth fighters. The video opens up with the aircraft flying, followed by several targets hit. The White House titled the post “If you don’t know, now you know.”

UPDATE: 4:17 PM EST –

Russia’s President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump discussed the Iran war and Ukraine conflict during a “frank and constructive” telephone call today, the Kremlin said.

The one-hour call, the first since December, was sought by Washington, Putin’s diplomatic advisor Yuri Ushakov claimed, according to Russian media.

“The accent was placed on the situation surrounding the conflict with Iran and the bilateral negotiations underway with the representatives of the United States on settling the Ukrainian question,” Ushakov proclaimed.

טראמפ שוחח עם פוטין על המלחמה באיראן, כך נמסר מהקרמלין

— Barak Ravid (@BarakRavid) March 9, 2026

The U.S. has lost two more MQ-9 Reaper drones, bringing the total to 11 so far during Epic Fury, CBS News reported.

The U.S. military has lost two more MQ-9 Reaper drones during Operation Epic Fury in Iran, bringing the total lost to 11 drones.

The 11 drones lost are worth over $330 million in total.

Source: CBS News pic.twitter.com/ptyp7sVJNT

— Clash Report (@clashreport) March 9, 2026

The Israeli Air Force (IAF) bombed six Iranian military air bases during a wave of strikes in Iran last night, according to the IDF.

The Israeli Air Force bombed six Iranian military airbases during a wave of strikes in Iran last night, the IDF says.

Some of the airports were previously targeted by the IAF amid the war.

As part of the strikes, the military says it destroyed numerous aircraft, including… pic.twitter.com/oKHD5P9KrA

— Emanuel (Mannie) Fabian (@manniefabian) March 9, 2026

IRGC Gen. Ebrahim Jabbari said Iran is ready for 10 years of war with America and that its “weapons stockpiles are full and the production of missiles and drones continues.”

⚡️BREAKING

IRGC GENERAL JABBARI:

We are ready for 10 years of war with the Americans

Our weapons stockpiles are full, and the production of missiles and drones continues pic.twitter.com/MnNozB6mDq

— Iran Observer (@IranObserver0) March 9, 2026

UPDATE: 3:41 PM EST –

In a phone interview with CBS News senior White House correspondent Weijia Jiang, Trump said the war could be over soon.

“I think the war is very complete, pretty much,” Trump told the network, according to a post on X. “They have no navy, no communications, they’ve got no Air Force.”

The U.S. is “very far” ahead of his initial 4-5 week estimated time frame, the president added.

NEW—In a phone interview, President Trump told me the war could be over soon: “I think the war is very complete, pretty much. They have no navy, no communications, they’ve got no Air Force.” He added that the U.S. is “very far” ahead of his initial 4-5 week estimated time frame.

— Weijia Jiang (@weijia) March 9, 2026

Still, the Department of War stated on X that “We Have Only Just Begun To Fight.”

During a broadcast, Fox News caught Israeli interceptors firing at missiles launched toward Tel Aviv.

Fox cameras capture Israeli interceptor missiles neutralizing incoming threats in the sky over Tel Aviv, followed by a wave of additional launches, as Israel’s air defense system responds to enemy fire. @TreyYingst pic.twitter.com/jJi2ZxtUFt

— Fox News (@FoxNews) March 9, 2026

Hezbollah has initiated “preliminary feelers to start negotiations for a ceasefire,” Israel’s N12 News reported on X. “Discussions are underway in Israel on the matter, with the key question being whether to launch a broad operation to eliminate the organization or to achieve a strategic gain in the form of severing the connection between Iran and the Lebanese terror group, which Iran has financed at a rate of one billion dollars per year.”

Exclusive report:
Hezbollah has initiated preliminary feelers to start negotiations for a ceasefire. Discussions are underway in Israel on the matter, with the key question being whether to launch a broad operation to eliminate the organization or to achieve a strategic gain in…

— Amit Segal (@AmitSegal) March 9, 2026

Pilots participating in long missions over Iran as part of Operation Roaring Lion “have admitted to using stimulant pills to maintain concentration,” The Jerusalem Post reported. This is leading doctors “to warn against the phenomenon spreading from the tightly controlled system in the IDF to the general public, where it could end in cardiac arrhythmias and seizures.”

Doctors warn against civilians using stimulant pills after IDF pilots admit to taking them during long missions over Iran. https://t.co/drQILizjnk

— The Jerusalem Post (@Jerusalem_Post) March 8, 2026

More video is emerging of the remnants of Tomahawk Land Attack Cruise Missiles (TLAMs) found in Iran.

The French Embassy shared video of President Emmanuel Macron aboard the aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle in the Mediterranean.

From 🇫🇷 President Emmanuel Macron, on board the Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier in the Mediterranean. pic.twitter.com/E5vWSOoH0c

— Embassy of France in the U.S. (@franceintheus) March 9, 2026

The U.K. MoD provided its latest assessment of operations in the Middle East.

The U.K. stated that its military aircraft “operated over the UAE alongside our Emirati hosts.”

UPDATE: 2:59 PM EST –

Trump has told aides “he would back the killing of new Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei if he proves unwilling to cede to U.S. demands, such as ending Iran’s nuclear development,” The Wall Street Journal reported, citing current and former U.S. officials.

Mojtaba Khamenei was wounded in an airstrike, according to Iranian TV.

“The anchors read reports describing him as ‘janbaz,’ or wounded by the enemy, in the ‘Ramadan War,’ which is how media in Iran refer to the current conflict,” according to the Times of Israel.

The reports do not elaborate on Khamenei’s condition or say how or when he was wounded.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio laid out the goals of Epic Fury.

SECRETARY RUBIO: The goals of the mission against the Iranian regime are clear:
– Destroy their ability to launch missiles
– Destroy factories making these missiles
– Destroy their navy pic.twitter.com/KPUpMGNtDf

— Department of State (@StateDept) March 9, 2026

Israeli strikes on Iran have killed more than 1,900 Iranian commanders and troops, IDF spokesman Brig. Gen. Effie Defrin told the media.

More than 1,900 Iranian soldiers and commanders have been killed in Israeli strikes in Iran, IDF Spokesman Brig. Gen. Effie Defrin says in a press statement.

He says thousands more have been wounded.

— Emanuel (Mannie) Fabian (@manniefabian) March 9, 2026

German Chancellor Fredrich Merz continues to back the strikes against Iran.

German Chancellor Merz on Iran:

Iran is the center of international terrorism, and this center must be shut down.

The Americans and Israelis are doing that in their own way. pic.twitter.com/GrW5Xianjv

— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) March 9, 2026

In a post on Truth Social, Trump announced a 5:30 p.m. address to the nation. The topic is not immediately known.

Beachgoers in the UAE witnessed a wild scene of an Iranian Shahed-136 drone being chased down at a low level by an Emirate Air Force F-16E, which fired at least one munition at the drone.

1:44 PM EST –

The U.S. Embassy in Kurait is being evacuated as the result of Iranian attacks on that country.

The American Embassy is being evacuated in Riyadh because of sustained attacks by Iran against the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

It is my understanding the Kingdom refuses to use their capable military as a part of an effort to end the barbaric and terrorist Iranian regime who has…

— Lindsey Graham (@LindseyGrahamSC) March 9, 2026

CENTCOM highlighted the use of the Army High Mobility Rocket Systems (HIMARS) attacks on Iran. The post, on X, includes an image of a HIMARS firing an Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) warhead.

U.S. Army High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) provide unrivaled deep-strike capability in combat against the Iranian regime. pic.twitter.com/Onsp1FUrz4

— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) March 9, 2026

CBS News posted video of the remnants of an Iranian ballistic missile with a cluster munition warhead that landed in Tel Aviv.

IRANIAN MISSILE UP CLOSE: Standing beside the fuel tank of an Iranian missile that landed in Tel Aviv, Israel, CBS News’ @CBSMATTGUTMAN shows us the sophistication and sheer size of the missiles Iran has been firing at Israel and the Gulf states. Gutman explains how these sorts… pic.twitter.com/88v7zV1cJA

— CBS News (@CBSNews) March 9, 2026

High-ranking Iranian official Ali Larijani said on X that “It is unlikely that any security will be achieved in the Strait of Hormuz amid the fires of the war ignited by the United States and Israel in the region, especially if that is by the design of parties that were not far removed from supporting this war and contributing to its fanning.”

من المستبعد أن يتحقق أيُّ أمنٍ في مضيق هرمز في ظلِّ نيران الحرب التي أشعلتها الولايات المتحدة وإسرائيل في المنطقة، ولا سيّما إذا كان ذلك بتصميم أطرافٍ لم تكن بعيدةً عن دعم هذه الحرب والإسهام في تأجيجها. https://t.co/Fn2tcbLhDT

— Ali Larijani | علی لاریجانی (@alilarijani_ir) March 9, 2026

Watching oil prices spike during Epic Fury, Russian President Vladimir Putin is reportedly considering trying to export oil to Europe. Crude oil prices hovering near $100 a barrel could be very beneficial for the Russian economy, which relies heavily on energy exports.

Putin says Russia should take advantage of the sky-high oil prices after US-Israeli attacks on Iran.

Russia should redirect supplies to Europe elsewhere, he adds. “If we shift our focus right now to the markets that need more supplies, we might get a foothold there.” pic.twitter.com/FZAHksP2p6

— max seddon (@maxseddon) March 9, 2026

The planes that entered Iran at the beginning of Operation Roaring Lion “did so at great risk and with partially reestablished air defenses, a senior Israel Air Force officer told Israeli media on Monday.

“The planes that entered Iran first were at very high risk,” the officer explained. “I was there. I led the people from the air, the pilots took this risk out of a deep understanding that we would be able to attack a surface-to-surface missile squadron that could hit Israel and its citizens.”

The planes that entered Iran at the beginning of Operation Roaring Lion did so at great risk and with partially reestablished air defenses, a senior Israel Air Force officer said.https://t.co/QwoQSm2gNS

— The Jerusalem Post (@Jerusalem_Post) March 9, 2026

Hezbollah reportedly launched a new wave of missiles deep into Israel and hit a satellite communications site.

The Lebanese group “claims to have targeted the IDF Home Front Command headquarters in Ramle, known as Rehavam Base, as well as a ‘satellite communications station’ in Haela Valley near Beit Shemesh, in its missile attack on central Israel this afternoon,” the Times of Israel reported. “The missile fire marks the deepest attack in Israel carried out by Hezbollah since hostilities intensified last week.”

The IDF only acknowledged that missiles were fired from Lebanon.

“Following the sirens that sounded in several areas in Israel, several projectiles that crossed from Lebanon into Israeli territory were identified,” the IDF stated. “The Israeli Air Force intercepted several launches and several additional launches fell in an open area. Additionally, a report was received regarding an impact in central Israel.”

💢 NEW: Hezbollah missiles strike deep inside Israel, hit satellite communications site

Hezbollah launched a barrage of long-range missiles that struck multiple locations in Israel, including a direct hit on military SATCOM dishes at the SES Satellite Station in the Ha’Ela… pic.twitter.com/H4MhdydFGU

— Drop Site (@DropSiteNews) March 9, 2026

A few senior officials in Israel “are starting to voice concern about the escalating, open-ended attack on Iran — and suggesting possible exit ramps that might halt the war before it further damages the region and the global economy,” David Ignatius opined in The Washington Post.

“Talk of an endgame is early, and a decision about whether to stop the attacks rests largely with President Donald Trump, who continues to seek all-out victory,” he wrote. “But in a telephone conversation Sunday, a senior Israeli official familiar with the planning and strategy for the Iran war discussed alternatives to Trump’s call for “unconditional surrender.” The official requested anonymity because of the sensitivity of the Iran situation.”

NEW: Israeli officials “growing concerned” about escalating war with Iran and now seeking possible exit ramps according to the Washington Post.

— Dominic Michael Tripi (@DMichaelTripi) March 9, 2026

Reports are emerging that despite Iranian claims that it has closed the Strait of Hormuz, at least one ship has passed through by turning off its transponders. There are questions about whether Iran still has the sensor capability to track ships given constant U.S. and Israeli attacks.

Ships are reportedly crossing the strait of Hormuz. They are reportedly turning off their transponders before passing through, and switch them back on afterward.

pic.twitter.com/hbq9gsRvyk

— Breaking911 (@Breaking911) March 9, 2026

1:02 PM EST –

The U.S. has intercepted encrypted communications believed to have originated in Iran that may serve as “an operational trigger” for “sleeper assets” outside the country, ABC News reported, citing a federal government alert sent to law enforcement agencies.

The alert cites “preliminary signals analysis” of a transmission “likely of Iranian origin” that was relayed across multiple countries shortly after the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Khamenei, the supreme leader of Iran, was killed in a U.S.-Israeli attack on Feb. 28.

NEW: The U.S. has intercepted encrypted communications believed to have originated in Iran that may serve as “an operational trigger” for “sleeper assets” outside the country, according to a federal government alert sent to law enforcement agencies. https://t.co/3LK66mTlJG

— ABC News (@ABC) March 9, 2026

CBS News broke down targets hit across the Middle East since Epic Fury was launched.

Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi posted a list of oil prices that have spiked since the launch of what he calls “Operation Epic Mistake.”

“…oil prices have doubled while all commodities are skyrocketing,” Araghchi stated on X. “We know the U.S. is plotting against our oil and nuclear sites in hopes of containing huge inflationary shock. Iran is fully prepared.”

It should be noted that prices are volatile and subject to frequent change.

9 days into Operation Epic Mistake, oil prices have doubled while all commodities are skyrocketing. We know the U.S. is plotting against our oil and nuclear sites in hopes of containing huge inflationary shock. Iran is fully prepared.

And we, too, have many surprises in store. pic.twitter.com/UNQu0fVZE2

— Seyed Abbas Araghchi (@araghchi) March 9, 2026

“I don’t see any room for diplomacy anymore,” Kamal Kharazi, Foreign Policy Advisor to the office of the Supreme Leader, told CNN in an exclusive interview in Tehran. He also said he believes the regime can continue with the war for a long time.

“I don’t see any room for diplomacy anymore,” Kamal Kharazi, Foreign Policy Advisor to the office of the Supreme Leader, tells @fpleitgenCNN in an exclusive interview in Tehran.

He also said he believes the regime can continue with the war for a long time. pic.twitter.com/tQetUT8lkW

— CNN International PR (@cnnipr) March 9, 2026

The IDF posted images it said were from the aftermath of an Iranian cluster munition attack on the city of Rishon Lezion.

Pictured is the Iranian terror regime’s strategy: targeting civilians.

Last night, the Iranian regime fired a cluster bomb at the Israeli city of Rishon Lezion—damaging multiple areas including a children’s playground. This is what we’re operating against. pic.twitter.com/YQZHCeHBTd

— Israel Defense Forces (@IDF) March 9, 2026

Iranian Gen. Majid Mousavi, head of the IRGC Aerospace Force, claimed his nation has a new tactic for launching missiles.

Only those with warheads over one ton will be fired, and the frequency will increase, Mousavi posited.

IRGC Aerospace Commander, General Mousavi, announced Iran’s new war tactic:

From now on, missiles with warheads lighter than one ton will not be launched.

The frequency and scope of the launches will increase, and their range will become wider. pic.twitter.com/LyrZveSTL8

— Press TV 🔻 (@PressTV) March 9, 2026

UPDATE:12:28 PM EST –

The Trump administration has discussed seizing Kharg Island, a strategic terminal responsible for roughly 90% of Iran’s crude oil exports, according to Axios.

Axios reports that the Trump administration is discussing seizing Kharg Island, a key Iranian oil terminal in the Persian Gulf. pic.twitter.com/4JBtB14RLY

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) March 8, 2026

Trump took to his Truth Social platform to say that short-term oil price hikes are worth the long-term removal of the Iranian nuclear threat.

U.S. officials were reportedly surprised by Iran’s sustained response to Epic Fury.

NEW: US officials surprised by Iranian military response, did not expect retaliatory strikes to be extensive or sustained, planned for operations in Iran to go similarly to Venezuela according to NYT.

— Dominic Michael Tripi (@DMichaelTripi) March 9, 2026

Gulf states have been surprised that Iran has carried out widespread attacks across the region.

“We surely didn’t think Iran would actually go after the entire Gulf and throw our ties with it out of the window,” a senior Saudi official says – WSJ

— Faytuks Network (@FaytuksNetwork) March 8, 2026

Iran’s Isfahan Optics plants was reportedly leveled by U.S.-Israeli airstrikes this morning.

American allies “are watching in disbelief as the Pentagon reroutes weapon shipments to aid the Iran war, angry and scared that arms the U.S. demanded they buy will never reach them,” Politico reported.

European nations that have struggled to rebuild arsenals after sending weapons to Ukraine “fear they won’t be able to ward off a Russian attack,” the outlet added. “Asian allies, startled by America’s rate of fire, question whether it could embolden China and North Korea. And even in the Middle East, countries aren’t clear if they will get air defenses from the U.S. for future priorities.”

NEW: U.S. allies are watching in disbelief as DOD reroutes weapons to aid the Iran war, worried long-promised American arms will never come.

“The munitions that have been and will be fired are the ones that everybody needs,” said one European official.https://t.co/7EGts4hHMk

— Jack Detsch (@JackDetsch) March 7, 2026

U.S. military transport planes have flown out of South Korea in recent days, after Seoul confirmed it was discussing the possible redeployment of American military assets as the Iran conflict escalates, Bloomberg News reported, citing flight tracking data.

“Data from the Flightradar24 website indicated that US military transport planes, including C-17 and C-5, flew out of South Korea’s Osan Air Base in Pyeongtaek, one as recently as Saturday,” the news outlet stated. “It wasn’t immediately clear what the aircraft were carrying.”

US military transport planes have flown out of South Korea, after Seoul confirmed it was discussing the possible redeployment of American military assets https://t.co/6nTQCsXpw8

— Bloomberg (@business) March 9, 2026

France will deploy an aircraft carrier, two helicopter carriers and three other warships for an international defensive naval mission to reopen the Strait of Hormuz after the most intense part of Epic Fury subsides, French President Emmanuel Macron announced.

French president Macron announced plans with international partners for a defensive naval mission to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and escort vessels once the most intense stage of the Middle East conflict subsides.
France to deploy 8 warships, an aircraft carrier and 2 helicopter… pic.twitter.com/7VN9Hmmb7D

— Tom Antonov (@Tom_Antonov) March 9, 2026

The UAE MoD said Iran launched 15 ballistic missiles and 18 drones overnight, adding that all but one were intercepted, Fox News reported on X. That represents a sharp decline of drone attacks on the Gulf nation, which had been averaging 124 a day over the past week.

UAE says Iran launched 15 ballistic missiles and 18 drones overnight: MoD. All but one drone successfully intercepted.

Sharp decline in Iranian drone attacks on UAE, which had been averaging 124 per day over the past week.

— Lucas Tomlinson (@LucasFoxNews) March 9, 2026

UPDATE: 12PM EST—

U.S. Central Command has previously released a video confirming the employment of ground-launched Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) short-range ballistic missiles as part of the strikes on Iran. Now, there appears to be evidence that at least some of the missiles are being fired from Kuwait. We have seen another video showing a HIMARS launcher fire from a beach in Bahrain, as well.

Empty ATACMS missile container found in the deserts of Kuwait, suggesting the U.S. may be launching HIMARS strikes on Iran from Kuwaiti territory.

ATACMS is a U.S. short-range tactical ballistic missile launched from HIMARS, capable of striking targets up to ~300 km. pic.twitter.com/aVJvdAv1w6

— Clash Report (@clashreport) March 9, 2026

Among the targets of recent U.S. strikes are what is left of the Islamic Republic of Iran Navy. There have been more attacks against Iranian vessels in coastal waters, one of them being struck while anchored off the coast of Bandar Lengeh earlier today. The warship in question has been widely identified as a Shahid Soleimani class missile corvette. One of these unusual catamaran vessels had been sunk in an earlier U.S. strike, as you can read about here.

Iran has named its new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, who is succeeding his father, Ali Khamenei, after he was killed on February 28, as part of a series of Israeli airstrikes around Tehran aimed at high-ranking Iranian officials. While the Iranian regime remains under the highest level of pressure from continued U.S. and Israeli attacks, the appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei represents continuity for the regime and signals that hardliners remain in charge — for now.

Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei
• More hardline than father
• He’s the IRGC candidate
• Relatively young: 56
• Avoids public
• Trusted by father, clerics
• Was in military during Iraq-Iran war
• His wife, Zahra, killed in Israeli airstrike w his father

— Joyce Karam (@Joyce_Karam) March 8, 2026

Russian President Vladimir Putin was among the international leaders to congratulate Mojtaba Khamenei on his appointment.

✉️ President Vladimir Putin sent a congratulatory message to the newly elected Supreme Leader of Iran – Ayatollah Seyyed Mojtaba Hosseini Khamenei.

💬 I am confident that you will unite the Iranian people in the face of the severe trials ahead.https://t.co/JOYAAWN2LE pic.twitter.com/jYd80CMb0m

— MFA Russia 🇷🇺 (@mfa_russia) March 9, 2026

The Israeli military said today that it had begun a new wave of attacks against targets in Tehran, Isfahan, and elsewhere in central and southern Iran.

The Israeli Air Force has launched a new wave of “extensive” airstrikes in Tehran, Isfahan, and in southern Iran, the IDF announces.

The IDF says the strikes are targeting Iranian regime infrastructure.

— Emanuel (Mannie) Fabian (@manniefabian) March 9, 2026

The IDF says it struck several military bases of Iran’s Basij paramilitary force and internal security forces in the city of Isfahan, along with missile sites in other areas of the country.

During the wave of strikes in Isfahan, the IDF says it hit the headquarters of Iran’s… pic.twitter.com/q3PmMWFlvx

— Emanuel (Mannie) Fabian (@manniefabian) March 9, 2026

✈️ The IAF completed a wave of strikes, in which numerous munitions were dropped on 400+ military infrastructure targets including ballistic missile launchers & additional weapons production sites.

Since the beginning of Operation Roaring Lion, the IAF carried out ~190 strike… pic.twitter.com/3c85CUrDJg

— Israel Defense Forces (@IDF) March 8, 2026

It also said that it struck targets associated with the Iran-backed Hezbollah militant group in Beirut.

Five top commanders in Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps were killed in an Israeli Navy strike targeting a hotel room in Beirut overnight, the IDF announces.

According to the military, the commanders who were killed “while hiding in a civilian hotel” served in the IRGC… https://t.co/O8jOM0t453

— Emanuel (Mannie) Fabian (@manniefabian) March 8, 2026

According to Hezbollah, its fighters are meanwhile engaged with Israeli forces who entered eastern Lebanon via helicopter. Hezbollah said it detected “the infiltration of approximately 15 Israeli enemy helicopters” from the Syrian side of the border into Lebanon. The Iran-backed militant group said in a statement that its fighters “engaged the helicopters and the infiltrating force with appropriate weapons” and that the confrontation was ongoing.

Lebanon’s state-run National News Agency described “fierce clashes … towards the outskirts of the town of Nabi Sheet to repel Israeli forces that carried out a landing by helicopters” in the area. Two Hezbollah officials told AFP that an Israeli helicopter was downed, but this has not been independently verified.

⭕️IDF troops began a targeted and limited raid in an area in southern Lebanon to locate and eliminate terrorists and dismantle Hezbollah infrastructure.

Prior to the entry of ground forces, numerous terror targets were struck from the air and ground.

This operation aims to…

— Israel Defense Forces (@IDF) March 9, 2026

A previous Israeli commando raid was launched into Lebanon overnight on Friday. Among its aims was the recovery of the remains of Ron Arad, an Israeli airman missing since 1986. The fighting left three Lebanese soldiers and 41 residents of the Bekaa Valley dead, according to the Lebanese Ministry of Health.

The Israeli military confirmed that two of its soldiers were killed in southern Lebanon.

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) today issued a new warning in Lebanon, calling for residents of the southern suburbs of Beirut to evacuate the area. An IDF spokesman said that the Israeli military will act “forcefully” against terrorist infrastructure in “the coming hours.”

The IDF says it intercepted dozens of Hezbollah drones and struck dozens of the terror group’s rocket and missile launchers in southern Lebanon in recent days.

It publishes footage showing the interceptions of Hezbollah drones by a fighter jet, a helicopter, and a ground-based… pic.twitter.com/K1uuVQxbBT

— Emanuel (Mannie) Fabian (@manniefabian) March 9, 2026

The IDF also said it conducted targeted strikes against the Iranian Lebanon Corps in Beirut over the weekend.

Human Rights Watch (HRW) has accused Israel of unlawfully using white phosphorus munitions in the town of Yohmor in southern Lebanon. HRW verified and geolocated various images that confirmed the airburst use of white phosphorus munitions over a residential part of the town last week.

“The Israeli military’s unlawful use of white phosphorus over residential areas is extremely alarming and will have dire consequences for civilians,” Ramzi Kaiss, Lebanon researcher at Human Rights Watch, said in a statement.

White phosphorus is not a chemical weapon, as sometimes described, since it is primarily an incendiary weapon, although it’s also regularly used for making smokescreens and for target marking. Burning at around 1,500 degrees Fahrenheit, white phosphorus can obviously inflict terrible injuries, and its use in densely populated areas violates international law.

As we discussed last week, Israel may be using a version of the Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM) that includes white phosphorus in its warhead. However, this particular weapon was designed to attack chemical and biological weapon stockpiles.

Iran and its proxies launched more attacks across the region over the weekend and into Monday.

Gulf nations reported missile and drone attacks Sunday, while Iran vowed to press on with strikes against neighbouring countries as the regional war enters its second weekhttps://t.co/S0cZrTC5I0

🎥 Aftermath of strike on tower in Kuwait City pic.twitter.com/cfoNWrUIAr

— AFP News Agency (@AFP) March 8, 2026

There are reports that strikes targeted a U.S. diplomatic facility near Baghdad’s international airport but were apparently intercepted.

Another successful drone interception reportedly occurred east of Saudi Arabia’s northern Al-Jawf region. The Saudi Ministry of Defense has released footage showing Iranian drones being taken out by Royal Saudi Air Force (RSAF) F-15 and Typhoon fighters. The RSAF has plenty of practice in this, having targeted drones launched by the Houthis in Yemen for many years.

However, Iran was more successful in its targeting of the Bapco (Bahrain Petroleum Company) oil refinery — the only one in Bahrain.

Videos show smoke rising from the refinery, where operators declared a state of emergency.

Footage shows massive fires raging at Bahrain’s only oil refinery after it was struck by an Iranian Shahed-136 one-way-attack (OWA) drones.

Following the strike, Bapco Energies, Bahrain’s state-owned oil company, declared force majeure on its deliveries later in the day, citing… pic.twitter.com/cVUKY3AbVy

— Egypt’s Intel Observer (@EGYOSINT) March 9, 2026

A statement from the company said it “hereby serves notice of force majeure on its group operations which have been affected by the ongoing regional conflict in the Middle East and the recent attack on its refinery complex.”

The Bahrain Ministry of Interior earlier today said that the fire at the refinery had been brought under control, with no casualties reported.

Civil Defence: The fire that broke out in a facility in the Ma’ameer area, as a result of Iranian aggression, has been brought under control. No injuries or loss of life were reported. pic.twitter.com/9T6hh7Qny9

— Ministry of Interior (@moi_bahrain) March 9, 2026

Earlier today, Bahrain said an overnight Iranian drone attack on the island of Sitra injured 32 people.

At least 32 Bahrainis were injured in an Iranian drone attack on the island of Sitra including four who were in critical condition, Bahrain’s state news agency said.

— Idrees Ali (@idreesali114) March 9, 2026

Other countries in the region have also reported being targeted by more retaliatory Iranian strikes.

In central Israel, a man was killed, and several more were injured in an airstrike, according to local emergency services. It is unclear who launched the attack, but several people were reportedly injured as they made their way to a shelter.

Further to the scene at a construction site in central Israel, MDA EMTs and paramedics pronounced the death of a man, approximately 40 years old, and evacuated to Sheba Tel Hashomer Hospital a man, approximately 40 years old, in serious and unstable condition. pic.twitter.com/cmKg8rkk4u

— Magen David Adom (@Mdais) March 9, 2026

Iran on Monday fired its first barrage of missiles toward Israel after the appointment of Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei as the Islamic Republic’s new supreme leader – State media pic.twitter.com/KSUWCDMFRY

— Rudaw English (@RudawEnglish) March 9, 2026

The recent Iranian missile strikes on Israel reportedly also involved the use of warheads carrying cluster munitions.

From the scenes of some of the cluster munition impacts in central Israel following Iran’s latest ballistic missile attack. pic.twitter.com/Pqp9HQCJgs

— Emanuel (Mannie) Fabian (@manniefabian) March 9, 2026

Footage shows two of the Iranian cluster bomb munitions’ impacts in central Israel during the ballistic missile attack this morning.

A total of six cluster munition impact sites were reported across central Israel, killing one and seriously injuring two others. pic.twitter.com/8QEXYcuQXT

— Emanuel (Mannie) Fabian (@manniefabian) March 9, 2026

In the United Arab Emirates, authorities reported two people injured in two separate locations in Abu Dhabi. Both are said to have been hit by debris from intercepted airstrikes.

تعاملت الجهات المختصة في إمارة أبوظبي مع حادثين نتيجة سقوط شظايا على موقعين، عقب الاعتراض الناجح من قبل الدفاعات الجوية. أسفر الحادث الأول عن تعرض شخص من الجنسية الأردنية لإصابة بسيطة، وأسفر الحادث الثاني عن تعرض شخص من الجنسية المصرية لإصابة متوسطة.

ونهيب بالجمهور استقاء…

— مكتب أبوظبي الإعلامي (@ADMediaOffice) March 9, 2026

Meanwhile, the fallout from an attack last week on the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone in the UAE is threatening to further disrupt the flow of oil out of the region.

This is significant to shipping as Fujairiah is not just a loading port but a MAJOR bunkering port for ships.

Without it, this will force refueling around the world where stocks are limited and more expensive. https://t.co/s9t68n7MPU

— Sal Mercogliano (WGOW Shipping) 🚢⚓🐪🚒🏴‍☠️ (@mercoglianos) March 9, 2026

The United Arab Emirates is now using AH-64 Apache attack helicopters in a counter-drone role. The footage below shows Apaches from the UAE Joint Aviation Command — reportedly the latest AH-64E versions, rather than the earlier AH-64Ds — using their 30mm guns to bring down Iranian UAVs. While the U.S. Army and other operators using AH-64s to swat down lower-end long-endurance drones might be relatively new, it’s worth noting that Israel has been using the Apache in an air defense role for this purpose for many years. 

The UAE military is using Apache attack helicopters to shoot down Shahed drones over water. This will save a significant number of expensive interceptors as these are practically free kills – just using a few 30mm rounds. A wise evolution of the country’s defensive strategy. https://t.co/7GMkLcssVS

— Ahmed Fouad Alkhatib (@afalkhatib) March 8, 2026

AFP reports several explosions heard today in the Qatari capital of Doha.

Qatar’s defense ministry said that its forces had intercepted and destroyed two drones heading toward the Shaybah oil field in the southeast of the country. These were just a fraction of a much larger barrage of ballistic missiles and drones sent toward Qatar, according to the defense ministry.

UAE air defences intercept 12 ballistic missiles, 17 UAVs.

UAE air defences on Monday detected 15 ballistic missiles, of which 12 were destroyed, while 3 missiles fell into the sea. A total of 18 UAVs were also detected, with 17 intercepted, while 1 fell within the country’s… pic.twitter.com/7l2tjyclK5

— وزارة الدفاع |MOD UAE (@modgovae) March 9, 2026

In Kuwait, the defense ministry reported that air defenses were working to intercept a missile and drone attack on Monday.

بيان رقم (22)

صادر عن المتحدث الرسمي لوزارة الدفاع
العقيد الركن سعود عبدالعزيز العطوان

تصدّت القوات المسلحة الكويتية منذ فجر اليوم الأحد الموافق 8 مارس 2026 لموجةٍ من الأهداف الجوية المعادية التي اخترقت أجواء البلاد.

حيث رصدت منظومات الدفاع الجوي عدد (7) صواريخ باليستية… pic.twitter.com/tMincF3hON

— KUWAIT ARMY – الجيش الكويتي (@KuwaitArmyGHQ) March 8, 2026

Footage purportedly showing a burning high-rise building in Kuwait after it was struck by an Iranian drone over the weekend.

🇰🇼🇮🇷 A massive fire has engulfed a high-rise building in Kuwait after it was struck by an Iranian drone.

The building is located at 29°21’46.61″N, 47°59’01.49″E. pic.twitter.com/OrpzrLnE0Y

— Egypt’s Intel Observer (@EGYOSINT) March 8, 2026

Cyprus, which has also been on the receiving end of drone strikes, received six Turkish Air Force F-16 fighters today. The jets were deployed to the breakaway Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus to bolster local defenses for the Turkish Cypriot state.

6 x Turkish F-16 fighter jets deployed to Northern Cyprus, conducting a show-of-force flight after arriving in the region.

Source: Kıbrıs Postası, Haber Kıbrıs pic.twitter.com/xYp4stP4Uy

— Clash Report (@clashreport) March 9, 2026

Turkey has also reportedly come under attack from at least one Iranian ballistic missile, which the local defense ministry said was brought down by “NATO air and missile defense assets” based in the eastern Mediterranean.

Turkish MoD warns Iran:

Türkiye places great importance on good neighborly relations and regional stability.

However, we reiterate that any threat directed at our territory or airspace will be met with all necessary measures, taken decisively and without hesitation.

We… https://t.co/NXEdZnahB7

— Clash Report (@clashreport) March 9, 2026

NATO has again intercepted a missile heading to Türkiye. NATO stands firm in its readiness to defend all Allies against any threat

— NATO Spokesperson (@NATOpress) March 9, 2026

In a statement provided to TWZ, a NATO spokesperson added:

“In less than 10 minutes, NATO service members identified a threat to Allies, a ballistic missile, confirmed its trajectory, alerted land- and sea-based missile defence systems, and launched an interceptor to defeat the threat and protect our territory and its people.”

The U.S. military has confirmed the death of a seventh American soldier due to injuries sustained during Iran’s initial counterattack. The Department of War said that Sgt. Benjamin N. Pennington, 26, of Glendale, Kentucky, died of his wounds yesterday. He had come under enemy attack on March 1, 2026, at Prince Sultan Air Base, Saudi Arabia, where he served with the 1st Space Battalion, 1st Space Brigade.

CENTCOM Update

TAMPA, Fla. – Last night, a U.S. service member passed away from injuries received during the Iranian regime’s initial attacks across the Middle East. The service member was seriously wounded at the scene of an attack on U.S. troops in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia…

— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) March 8, 2026

However, unverified reports of the death of an eighth U.S. service member during the current campaign have proven to be erroneous.

This is not accurate. The Marine who is referenced here died before the U.S. and Israeli bombing of Iran started and from non combat injuries, an official told me. His remains were not flown into Dover until March 4. https://t.co/WWM1jiFOl3

— Idrees Ali (@idreesali114) March 8, 2026

According to a report from Axios, U.S. President Donald Trump, together with envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, plans to travel to Israel tomorrow for talks with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

However, reports from Israel suggest that the visit has been postponed.

Regardless, Trump has said that the end of the war will be a “mutual” decision to be made with Netanyahu, the Times of Israel reported.

“I think it’s mutual…a little bit. We’ve been talking. I’ll make a decision at the right time, but everything’s going to be taken into account,” Trump said.

In a telephone interview with the Times of Israel on Sunday, Trump said that Iran would have destroyed Israel if it weren’t for his and Netanyahu’s actions.

“Iran was going to destroy Israel and everything else around it…We’ve worked together. We’ve destroyed a country that wanted to destroy Israel,” the U.S. president said.

Contact the author: thomas@thewarzone.com

US-Israeli attacks on Iran continue as Iranians rally in support of new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei.

U.S. and Israeli authorities have reportedly been considering a special operations ground raid to extract or otherwise neutralize Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium. TWZ previously explored this exact scenario, given that this nuclear material is understood to be stored in deep underground bunkers, presenting challenges for attempting to achieve this objective from the air alone. U.S. and Israeli special operations forces have actively trained for these kinds of missions for decades, and Israel has demonstrated its ability and willingness to carry out complex raids on subterranean facilities, but any such operation would still face immense risks and uncertainties.

Multiple outlets have now reported on deliberations within the U.S. and Israeli governments over a ground raid targeting Iran’s enriched uranium stocks this past weekend, citing unnamed sources. It is unclear whether the mission being considered would be carried out by U.S. or Israeli forces, or be conducted jointly by both parties.

“People are going to have to go and get it,” Secretary of State and acting National Security Advisor Marco Rubio said at a congressional briefing back on March 3 in response to a question about securing Iran’s enriched uranium, according to a report from Axios on Saturday.

“We’re going to find out about that. We haven’t talked about it, but it was a total obliteration. They haven’t been able to get to it. And at some point, maybe we will,” President Donald Trump also told reporters on Air Force One on Saturday. “You know, that’d be a great thing, but right now we’re just decimating them. We haven’t gone after it, but it’s something we can do later on. We wouldn’t do it now. Maybe we’d do it later.”

NBC News reported last week that President Trump had “privately expressed serious interest” in sending “a small contingent of U.S. troops that would be used for specific strategic purposes” into Iran.

The U.S. government says that preventing Iran from developing a nuclear weapon is a core goal of its current operations targeting the country. If the Iranian government were to collapse, and do so suddenly, there would be additional concerns about the proliferation of the country’s nuclear material, including to regional proxies and terrorist groups, as well as other potential buyers on the black market.

What we know about Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile

By its last firm estimate, as of June 2025, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) assessed that Iran had just over 972 pounds (just under 441 kilograms) of uranium enriched to 60 percent purity. This stockpile has long been a proliferation concern and evidence of Iranian authorities maintaining the option of rapidly pursuing a nuclear weapon even in the absence of an active development program.

It is understood to be a relatively quick process, in technical terms, to get uranium from 60 percent to 90 percent purity, at which point it is considered highly enriched or weapons-grade. Per the IAEA, 92.5 pounds of 60 percent uranium is sufficient to be enriched into enough 90 percent material for one nuclear bomb. Using this metric, Iran’s declared stockpile of enriched uranium is enough for at least 10 bombs.

“In that first meeting, both of the Iranian negotiators said to us directly, with no shame, that they controlled 460 kilograms of 60 percent, and they were aware that that could make 11 nuclear bombs,” Steve Witkoff, U.S. Special Envoy to the Middle East, who had been leading talks with Iranian officials head of the current conflict, said in an interview with Fox News’ Sean Hannity on March 2. “They have 10,000, roughly, kilograms of fissionable material. That’s broken up into roughly 460 kilograms of 60 percent enriched uranium, another thousand kilograms of 20 percent enriched uranium, and the balance is at 3.67 [percent purity].” 

Uranium that is not pure enough for a nuclear weapon could still be fashioned into a so-called ‘dirty bomb’ designed just to spread radioactive contamination across an area. Even if the immediate impacts of the detonation of such a device are minimal, it could cause widespread panic and would require significant effort to clean up. This is a threat that has also often been associated with non-state actors in the past.

Iran’s underground nuclear site at Isfahan has long been understood to be the primary storehouse for its stockpile of enriched uranium. That facility was among those targeted in U.S. strikes last June, dubbed Operation Midnight Hammer. Though access to any uranium there was subsequently curtailed, the U.S. Intelligence Community has more recently assessed that Iranian authorities have regained entry, at least to a degree, according to a report from The New York Times over the weekend.

As an aside, in the weeks leading up to the current conflict, satellite imagery showed Iran taking steps to seal off Isfahan, as well as other key facilities, which would help hamper any potential ground raids. TWZ highlighted similar activity at Iranian nuclear sites ahead of Operation Midnight Hammer.

NEW: High resolution satellite imagery taken yesterday shows the extent to which Iran has covered the tunnel entrances at the Esfahan nuclear complex with soil. The middle and southern entrances are unrecognizable and fully covered in soil. The northernmost tunnel entrance which… pic.twitter.com/baYI2zCuN0

— Inst for Science (@TheGoodISIS) February 9, 2026

NEW: Satellite imagery of the Esfahan nuclear site taken today shows new activity at the tunnel entrances. As of today, Iran has re-buried the middle entrance with soil and is adding more fresh soil to the southernmost entrance. The northernmost entrance, which was reworked after… pic.twitter.com/7ujiku8VRg

— Inst for Science (@TheGoodISIS) January 29, 2026

There are lingering questions about the degree to which Iran may have dispersed its enriched uranium beyond Isfahan. The day before the current conflict erupted, the AP reported that the IAEA had been circulating a report saying that it could not “verify whether Iran has suspended all enrichment-related activities” or the “size of Iran’s uranium stockpile at the affected nuclear facilities,” and was unable to “provide any information on the current size, composition or whereabouts of the stockpile of enriched uranium in Iran.”

“Publicly, U.S. officials have projected confidence that they know where the uranium is stored. Privately, there is said to be less certainty,” according to a report from Bloomberg today.

Options for a ground raid

In terms of the specifics of how a ground raid would neutralize Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile, multiple options are reportedly being considered.

“The first question is, where is it? The second question is, how do we get to it and how do we get physical control?” a U.S. official said, according to Axios. “And then, it would be a decision of the president and the Department of War, CIA, as to whether we wanted to physically transport it or dilute it on premises.”

“The mission would likely involve special operators alongside scientists, possibly from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA),” Axios‘ report added.

TWZ had outlined exactly these possibilities when discussing the prospect of a ground raid targeting Iran’s nuclear program, and one potentially involving U.S. forces, in the midst of last year’s 12 Day War. As we wrote at that time:

“U.S. special operations units are ideally suited to rapidly and discreetly infiltrate into a target area to extract items of interest from an objective like a nuclear facility in Iran. If the items in question are too large to be moved by the special operations force, depending on what they are, they could then be destroyed in place or secured until a larger follow-on force arrives. Conventional supporting forces and interagency elements offering unique capabilities could accompany special operations forces on initial raids, as well.”

“Special operations forces are also well-positioned to help intercept high-value targets on the move, including nuclear material that might make its way out of Iran, or threaten to do so, as the conflict with Israel continues. This could potentially include operations on land or at sea.”

U.S. special operations forces, especially so-called “tier one” units like the U.S. Army’s Delta Force and the U.S. Navy’s SEAL Team Six, train regularly to conduct exercises centering on counter-weapons of mass destruction (WMD) scenarios and others involving chemical, biological, nuclear, and radiological hazards. U.S. Special Operations Command (SOCOM) was formally designated the lead entity for the Counter Weapons of Mass Destruction (CWMD) mission set in 2016. An array of specialized conventional U.S. military units, as well as personnel from other ends of the U.S. government, such as the Department of Energy, are also expected to take part in these operations and are often integrated directly into relevant training events alongside special operations elements. You can read more about all of this here.

Israel has its own long history of spectacular air and ground raids, as well as covert or clandestine intelligence operations, which have often targeted nuclear programs in hostile countries, especially in Iran. Operations of this kind have also been launched against conventional weapons capabilities deemed to present particular threats.

As one particularly spectacular example, in 2024, Israeli forces destroyed an underground ballistic missile factory in Syria, which had been built with Iranian assistance. The raiding party was on the ground for approximately two and a half hours, during which time 660 pounds of explosives were rigged throughout the site. “A planetary mixer, numerous weapons, and intelligence documents,” were also extracted, according to the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). TWZ noted at the time that this operation sent a clear signal to Iran that its underground facilities were not untouchable.

100 Shaldag soldiers raid and dismantle Syrian missile factory in secret operation

There is the potential that Israel might have launched ground raids against Iran’s nuclear sites at Fordow, Natanz, and/or Isfahan unilaterally last year if the U.S. military had not conducted Operation Midnight Hammer. There would have been few, if any other options for Israel to have gone after those underground facilities. This, in turn, raises the possibility that Israeli forces may have prepared more explicitly to execute these operations just in the past year.

Risk and complexities

Executing any special operations raid targeting Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium, wherever it might be held, would not be without immense challenges.

For one, there are real questions about what it would take to move nearly 1,000 pounds of enriched uranium out of Iran, even if it is largely located at one site. The material would be even heavier and bulkier when taking into account the secure containers it is likely to be stored in.

Similar questions have been raised about the feasibility of neutralizing the stockpile in place if it is determined to be impractical to move it. Experts and observers have highlighted the immense time and resources that would be required to try to dilute the purity of any nuclear material on-site, processes that typically require industrial machinery under normal conditions.

Unlike conventional weapons, or even other key aspects of Iran’s nuclear program, like centrifuges, fissile material cannot simply be blown up to destroy it in place, either.

Having to carry out any such operation, however long it might take, in an active conflict zone and likely under enemy fire, would only add to the complexities of a ground raid. As already noted, Iran looks to have taken steps to physically hamper access to Isfahan and other sites, adding to the time it would take friendly forces to gain entry to their objectives in the first place. Heavy machinery could be required to dig into these facilities.

The longer friendly forces are on the ground, the more time Iran has to put together a response. Airpower can help keep hostile forces at bay, but Iranian security forces could eventually muster significant firepower, including artillery. Keeping nuclear facilities safe from attack has been a top priority for the regime in Tehran, and Iranian security forces will have reaction plans in place.

There is also simply the matter of getting the raiding force to and from the objective. As has been established, we are talking about what would have to be a relatively large contingent, burdened with specialized equipment, along with a typical array of weaponry and other gear.

The U.S. military, specifically, has a very complicated relationship with these kinds of operations, dating back to the failed attempt to rescue hostages being held in the American embassy in Tehran following the revolution that put the current Iranian regime into power in the first place. That operation exposed deficiencies that did lead to the development of new capabilities, as well as tactics, techniques, and procedures, and continues to be a key case study in special operations planning today.

We did get to see a demonstration of the U.S. military’s current capability and capacity to launch a major special operations raid in January with Operation Absolute Resolve, which resulted in the capture of Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro from the middle of a fortress-like military facility. At the same time, it also showed the immense resources required to ensure the success of a mission like that, with hundreds of aircraft, ships offshore, and an array of other assets involved. The main raiding force consisted of 200 special operators. You can read more about what is known about the extensive preparations for the mission, including having forces specifically poised to destroy three airfields if it looked like Venezuelan Air Force fighters were attempting to scramble, here.

In addition, the Venezuela operation had the benefit of surprise, rather than coming in the middle of already ongoing major combat operations against an enemy that says it is actively prepared to respond to any kind of ground incursion. Iran’s military capabilities and overall capacity have been seriously degraded by U.S. and Israeli strikes in the past week, but significant threats remain, as TWZ regularly stresses.

Even under the most optimal conditions, launching a major special operations raid into Iran amid the ongoing hostilities would be extremely risky.

A question of timing and alternatives

Axios‘ report notably said a special operations raid against Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile “would likely only take place after both countries [the United States and Israel] are confident Iran’s military can no longer mount a serious threat to the forces involved.” This would also align with President Trump’s comments on Saturday.

However, other factors could still influence that decision-making process. As has been made clear, there are already serious questions about where all of Iran’s enriched uranium may be hidden away now. This is compounded by the reports that the Iranians may have regained access to where material was being stored in Isfahan, which could then allow them to move it elsewhere.

Even if persistent surveillance gives a good sense of where the material is being moved, dispersal can only increase the total number of sites that would have to be secured. It would also reduce any guarantees of neutralizing even the majority of the stockpile in one fell swoop.

As mentioned earlier, interdicting nuclear shipments on the move would still require a ground force of some kind to secure the material. Simply kinetically targeting vehicles carrying enriched uranium from the air would not be sufficient and would risk scattering nuclear material in an uncontrolled manner, making such a strike an absolute last resort option.

As pointed out earlier, there could also be a concern that regional proxies, terrorists, or other third parties might attempt to exploit the current conflict to spirit away a portion of Iran’s stockpile from Isfahan or sites for their own nefarious uses. This, in turn, could further drive a demand for action to secure that material on a timetable that does not allow for waiting for ideal conditions to emerge.

In the meantime, the United States and Israel could seek to carry out new strikes to try to seal entrances to underground facilities at Isfahan and other locations. Strikes last week on Iran’s nuclear site at Natanz look to have been intended to do just this. Those sites could then be surveilled to watch for any further attempts on the part of the Iranians to dig them out. Additional action, including more strikes or launching a ground raid, could then be taken, as necessary.

We have prepared an overview slide summarizing the visible damage at the Natanz uranium enrichment site from the recent attack, pulling together multiple images showing before and after satellite images of the two personnel entrances and the sole vehicle entrance with comparable… pic.twitter.com/mMGvOyHgkQ

— Inst for Science (@TheGoodISIS) March 3, 2026

On top of everything else, not being able to definitely find, fix, and secure Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium would make it difficult for the U.S. government to say it has achieved its core objective of preventing the country from building a nuclear weapon. Inversely, doing so could be seen as essential, especially by the Trump administration, for creating the conditions necessary to end the current conflict.

Altogether, it remains to be seen whether or not the United States and Israel decide that mounting a major special operation targeting Iran’s enriched uranium outweighs the risks.

Contact the author: joe@twz.com

Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has never held a formal position in government, but his appointment as his late father’s successor amid the US-Israeli war on his country was not unexpected.

Iran’s Assembly of Experts appointed the 56-year-old mid-ranking religious scholar to the position on Sunday, just over a week after his late father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed in United States-Israeli strikes.

Khamenei, who has strong ties with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and his late father’s still-influential office, is seen as a hardliner who will provide continuity in the country.

His appointment, which came after he lost both his father and his wife in strikes, was interpreted as a defiant choice signalling continuity as the Islamic Republic faces the biggest crisis in its 47-year history.

Khamenei received immediate backing from figures in Iran’s political and security establishment, including IRGC leaders, President Masoud Pezeshkian and Ali Larijani, secretary of the Supreme National Security Council.

Outside the country, reactions were mixed:

Oman

Oman was a mediator in recent talks between Iran and the United States, which collapsed when the US and Israel unleashed their war on Iran last month.

Oman’s Sultan Haitham bin Tariq Al Said on Monday sent a “cable of congratulations” to Khamenei on his appointment as Iran’s new supreme leader, according to the official Oman News Agency.

Iraq

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani also congratulated Khamenei on his appointment on Monday.

“We express our confidence in the ability of the new leadership in the Islamic Republic of Iran to manage this sensitive stage, and continue to strengthen the unity of the Iranian people in facing the current challenges,” al-Sudani said in a statement.

He reaffirmed Iraq’s solidarity and support for Iran and “all steps aimed at ending the conflict and rejecting military operations against its sovereignty, in order to preserve the stability of other countries in the region”.

United States

US President Donald Trump had previously dismissed Mojtaba Khamenei as a “lightweight”, and insisted he should have a say in appointing a new Iranian leader, which Tehran rejected.

On Monday, Trump told NBC News, “I think they made a big mistake. I don’t know if it’s going to last. I think they made a mistake.”

Later on Monday, he told CBS News: “I have no message for him.”

Trump said he has someone in mind to lead Iran, but did not elaborate.

Israel

The ⁠Israeli ⁠military has already threatened to kill any replacement for the late Ali Khamenei.

Israel’s Foreign Ministry said Monday that Mojtaba Khamenei was a “tyrant” like his slain father, and would continue what it described as the Iranian “regime’s brutality”.

In a post on X featuring a picture of Mojtaba Khamenei and his father Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, holding guns, the ministry wrote: “Mojtaba Khamenei. Like Father Like Son”.

“Mojtaba Khamenei’s hands are already stained with the bloodshed that defined his father’s rule. Another tyrant to continue the Iranian regime’s brutality,” said the ministry.

Russia

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday pledged “unwavering support” to Iran.

“I would like to reaffirm our unwavering support for Tehran and solidarity with our Iranian friends,” Putin said in a message to Khamenei, adding that “Russia has been and will remain a reliable partner” to Iran.

“At a time when Iran is confronting armed aggression, your tenure in this high position will undoubtedly require great courage and dedication,” the Russian leader said.

China

China’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun told reporters on Monday that Iran’s decision to appoint the younger Khamenei was “based on its constitution”.

“China opposes interference in other countries’ internal affairs under any pretext, and Iran’s sovereignty, security, and territorial integrity should be respected,” he said when asked about the threats against the new leader.

Beijing is a close partner of Tehran and condemned the killing of the former supreme leader, but it has also criticised the Iranian counterstrikes against Gulf states.

Yemen’s Houthis

Yemen’s Houthi rebels on Monday welcomed the appointment of the new supreme leader.

“We congratulate the Islamic Republic of Iran, its leadership and people, on the selection of Sayyid Mojtaba Khamenei as Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution at this important and pivotal juncture,” the group said in a statement on Telegram.

It called his selection “a new victory for the Islamic Revolution and a resounding blow to the enemies of the Islamic Republic and the enemies of the nation”.

Trump administration accuses the group of receiving support from the Iran and carrying out violence against civilians.

The United States has designated the Sudanese Muslim Brotherhood as a “terrorist” group, as the administration of President Donald Trump widens its crackdown on the organisation.

The State Department accused the Sudanese Muslim Brotherhood on Monday of receiving support from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

Washington labelled the group as a “specially designated global terrorist” (SDGT) and said that it will designate it as a “foreign terrorist organisation” (FTO) starting next week.

“The Sudanese Muslim Brotherhood uses unrestrained violence against civilians to undermine efforts to resolve the conflict in Sudan and advance its violent Islamist ideology,” Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in a statement.

The SDGT designation enables economic sanctions against the group, while the FTO label makes it illegal to provide material support to it.

The State Department accused Muslim Brotherhood fighters in Sudan – where the Sudanese military is fighting against the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) paramilitary group – of conducting “mass executions of civilians”.

The RSF, which has been accused of major human rights violations, and its supporters often argue that they are fighting Muslim Brotherhood forces.

On Monday, the United Arab Emirates welcomed Washington’s move to blacklist the group in Sudan.

The UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs said the “US measure reflects the sustained and systematic efforts undertaken by the administration of President Trump to halt excessive violence against civilians and the destabilizing activities carried out by the Muslim Brotherhood in Sudan”.

In January, the Trump administration blacklisted Muslim Brotherhood affiliates in Lebanon, Jordan and Sudan, a move the groups rejected.

Established in 1928 by Egyptian Muslim scholar Hassan al-Banna, the Muslim Brotherhood has offshoots and branches across the Middle East, including political parties and social organisations.

The group and its affiliates say they are committed to peaceful political participation.

In the US and other countries in the West, right-wing activists have for years tried to demonise Muslim immigrant communities and Israel’s critics with accusations of links to the Muslim Brotherhood.

Some of Trump’s hawkish allies in Congress have also for years been calling for the group to be blacklisted.

EXPLAINER

More than half of the 62 million people in the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries are foreign workers.

Nearly 62 million people living in the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries have been caught in the crossfire of the latest US-Israel war on Iran.

Known for their economic opportunities, these countries, including Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), collectively host nearly 35 million foreign workers from around the world, predominantly from South Asia.

With the exception of Saudi Arabia and Oman, foreign workers make up the bulk of the populations of people living in the remaining four GCC countries.

The map below illustrates the national and non-national populations in each of the GCC countries.

Where do GCC foreign workers come from?

Generations of foreign workers in the GCC countries have significantly contributed to the workforce, including labourers, construction workers, household staff, security personnel, and cleaners, all vital to building the modern infrastructures that Gulf nations are known for.

Millions consider the Gulf their home, despite holding nationalities from other countries.

Additionally, highly skilled foreign workers have a long history in industries such as banking, finance, technology, engineering, aviation, medicine and the media.

According to Global Media Insight, a digital marketing agency based out of the UAE,  the 10 largest groups of non-nationals living across the six GCC countries are from:

• India: 9.1 million
• Bangladesh: 5 million
• Pakistan: 4.9 million
• Egypt: 3.3 million
• Philippines: 2.2 million
• Yemen: 2.2 million
• Sudan: 1.1 million
• Nepal: 1.2 million
• Syria: 694,000
• Sri Lanka: 650,000

Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia is the largest of the six GCC countries, with a population of nearly 37 million.

The oil-rich country has a local population of about 20.5 million and an additional 16.4 million foreign residents.

The five largest groups of non-nationals living in Saudi Arabia are people from:

• Bangladesh: 2,590,000
• India: 2,310,000
• Pakistan: 2,230,000
• Yemen: 2,210,000
• Egypt: 1,800,000
• Sudan: 1,000,000

The UAE

The United Arab Emirates has the second-largest population in the GCC, totaling some 11.3 million people.

It consists of seven emirates, including the capital Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Sharjah, Ajman, Umm Al Quwain, Ras Al Khaimah, and Fujairah.

Emiratis make up nearly 12 percent of the population, with foreigners at almost 88 percent.

The five largest groups of non-nationals living in the UAE are from:

• India: 4,360,000
• Pakistan: 1,900,000
• Bangladesh: 840,000
• Philippines: 780,000
• Iran: 540,000
• Egypt: 480,000

Kuwait

With a population of 4.8 million, Kuwait has the third-largest population in the GCC.

Approximately 1.56 million are Kuwaiti citizens, and 2.16 million are foreign workers.

The five largest groups of non-nationals living in Kuwait are from:

• India: 1,000,000
• Egypt: 700,000
• Bangladesh: 350,000
• Philippines: 250,000
• Pakistan: 200,000
• Nepal: 120,000

Oman

Oman’s population stands at approximately 4.7 million people. Oman’s 2.5 million citizens account for nearly 59 percent of the population, while the remaining 2.05 million (or 41 percent) are foreign workers.

The five largest groups of non-nationals living in Oman are from:

• India: 766,735
• Bangladesh: 718,856
• Pakistan: 268,868
• Egypt: 46,970
• Philippines: 45,213
• Uganda: 20,886

Qatar

Qatar has a population of some 3.2 million people, with 2.87 million foreign workers accounting for about 88 percent of them. Qatari citizens number around 330,000, making up 12 percent.

The five largest groups of non-nationals living in Qatar are from:

• India: 700,000
• Bangladesh: 400,000
• Nepal: 400,000
• Egypt: 300,000
• Philippines: 236,000
• Pakistan: 180,000

Bahrain

With a total population of 1.58 million, Bahrain has the smallest population in the GCC. Bahraini citizens make up just under half of the population.

The five largest groups of non-nationals living in Bahrain are from:

• India: 350,000
• Bangladesh: 150,000
• Pakistan: 120,000
• Philippines: 80,000
• Egypt: 60,000
• Nepal: 35,000

Russian president spoke as oil prices surged past $100 per barrel, reaching levels unseen since start of Ukraine war.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has said that Russia is ready to conditionally supply oil and gas to Europe as the US-Israeli war on Iran brings shipments through the Strait of Hormuz to a halt.

The Russian president said in televised comments on Monday that Moscow was ready to work again with European customers, which largely stopped buying from his country in a bid to stop funding its war on Ukraine, if they wanted to return to long-term cooperation.

European countries, however, have spent the past four years sharply reducing their reliance on Russian oil and gas in response to Moscow’s war in Ukraine and subsequent European Union and Group of Seven (G7) sanctions.

The EU banned maritime imports of Russian crude in 2022, while Russia’s pipeline exports to Hungary and Slovakia have been effectively halted since January due to damage to the Druzhba oil pipeline via Ukraine.

“If European companies and European buyers suddenly decide to reorient themselves and provide us with long-term, sustainable cooperation, free from political pressures, free from political pressures, then yes, we’ve never refused it. We’re ready to work with Europeans too,” said Putin at a meeting with government officials and heads of Russia’s top oil and gas producers.

He said that Russian companies should take advantage of conflict in the Middle East, which has seen Iran effectively halt shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s key oil transit chokepoints that carries roughly a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas.

The Russian president spoke as oil prices exceeded $100 per barrel on Monday, reaching peaks unseen since he launched his country’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Brent crude, the international benchmark, rose by more than 30 percent on Sunday, at one point topping $119 a barrel, as fears grew of prolonged disruption to global energy supplies.

G7 nations said on Monday that they were prepared to implement “necessary measures” in response to surging global oil prices, but stopped short of committing to release emergency reserves.

Putin’s comments came hours after Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban urged the European Union to suspend sanctions on Russian oil and gas to counter prices sent soaring by the war in the Middle East.

Last week, Putin had instructed the government to consider switching remaining Russian oil and gas flows away from Europe, before the European Union starts enforcing its decision to completely ban Russian fossil fuels.

Before the Ukraine war, Europe was buying more than 40 percent of its gas from Russia. By 2025, combined sales of pipeline gas and LNG from Russia accounted for only 13 percent of total EU imports.

The loss of the European market during the Ukraine war forced Russia to sell oil and gas at steep discounts to Asia.

A new supreme leader in Iran – Mojtaba Khamenei – has replaced his assassinated father.

His selection sends a defiant message to the United States and Israel as they attack the country.

So, who is Iran’s new leader – and what does his appointment mean?

Presenter: Tom McRae

Guests:

Hassan Ahmadian – Associate professor at the University of Tehran

Mehran Kamrava – Professor at Georgetown University in Qatar and director of the Iranian Studies Unit at the Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies

Alex Vatanka – Senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington, DC

Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus says children, the elderly at particular risk after damage to Iranian petroleum facilities.

The head of the World Health Organization has warned that recent Israeli attacks on oil facilities in Iran could have negative effects on public health, with Iranian children and the elderly among the most vulnerable.

Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said in a statement on Monday that damage to Iranian petroleum facilities “risks contaminating food, water and air”.

Those hazards “can have severe health impacts especially on children, older people, and people with pre existing medical conditions”, Tedros warned in a post on X. “Rain laden with oil has been reported falling in parts of the country.”

The Iranian authorities said oil facilities in the capital, Tehran, and the nearby province of Alborz were targeted on Saturday in the United States-Israeli war against the country, the Fars news agency reported.

Israel said it struck “a number of fuel storage facilities in Tehran” that were used “to operate military infrastructure”.

The strikes sent massive flames and clouds of thick, black smoke into the sky above Tehran, with Al Jazeera’s Tohid Asadi reporting that black raindrops fell early on Sunday morning.

The attacks on Iran’s energy infrastructure came as the US and Israeli governments had vowed to continue to bombard the country despite mounting international concern over the widening conflict.

Iran has retaliated to the US-Israeli strikes by launching missiles and drones at targets across the Middle East, including energy infrastructure in nearby Arab Gulf states.

Human rights groups have condemned both Iran and the US and Israel for targeting civilian infrastructure.

Agnes Callamard, the head of Amnesty International, said on Monday that “Israel should have taken all feasible precautions to avoid or minimize the risks to civilians when targeting oil refineries” in Iran.

“The incidental harm to civilians, including the release of toxic substance, appears to indicate that too little precautions were taken and that the incidental harm to civilians is disproportionate,” she wrote on X.

“The scenes of catastrophe described by Iranians after Tehran’s oil depots were bombed are yet another demonstration that ultimately, whatever they may say, the US and Israel’s attacks on Iran are harming first and foremost civilians, including children.”

Tehran, Iran – Commanders, politicians and religious authorities in Iran are rallying around the flag and hinting at a prolonged war after Mojtaba Khamenei was selected as supreme leader as the country is under fire from the United States and Israel.

The 88-member Assembly of Experts, made up of religious leaders, approved the second son of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as his successor after he was killed on February 28, the first day of the war. The younger Khamenei was tasked with steering the “holy establishment of the Islamic Republic”, state television said overnight into Monday.

The 56-year-old Mojtaba Khamenei has hardly made any public appearances or remarks but is believed to have acted as a powerbroker with deep connections to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). His ascension signals continuity for the theocratic establishment that came to power after the 1979 Islamic revolution.

The IRGC, which was originally created to operate in parallel to the country’s regular army to safeguard the establishment but has since turned into a major military and economic force, was among the first to pledge allegiance to the new leader.

It said its forces are prepared to “fully obey and sacrifice for the divine commands” of Khamenei to “maintain the values of the Islamic revolution and safeguard the legacies” of the first two supreme leaders, Ali Khamenei and Ruhollah Khomeini.

The aerospace, ground, naval and other major forces of the IRGC issued separate statements of support.

The Iranian army, the high command of police and the Defence Council also said they were prepared to take orders from Mojtaba Khamenei, and Intelligence Minister Esmaeil Khatib said his selection shows that “Islamic Iran knows no dead ends and always has a bright outlook of victory.”

The powerful 12-member constitutional watchdog known as the Guardian Council called the selection of Mojtaba Khamenei a “balm for the pain” of losing his father while influential seminaries across the country and the heads of government, the judiciary and parliament issued similar statements.

Ali Larijani, the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, appeared relatively less enthusiastic but emphasised that the process was done legally so he backs it.

“During the recent period, many negative narratives and campaigns were carried out, but the transparent and lawful process undertaken by the Assembly of Experts provided a clear response to those narratives,” he told state media in an apparent reference to media reports that he and some others were opposed to the choice.

Larijani stressed that the office of the supreme leader must be assisted by all as a “symbol of national unity” and expressed hope that during Mojtaba Khamenei’s time, “Iran is aligned with the path of development, economic conditions are improved, and more calm and welfare is provided for the people”.

All who praised the new leader referred to him as “ayatollah”, indicating that his religious standing has been upgraded from the lower rank of hojatoleslam as part of his ascension to the highest political and religious office in the country.

Hardline state-affiliated media and supporters went as far as calling him “imam”, a title used to describe significant religious figures and regularly used by state media to describe his father and Khomeini, the first supreme leader.

State television broadcast images of the news of Khamenei’s selection being announced at important mosques in Tehran, Mashhad, Isfahan and other cities across the country.

Mass text messages sent by the state to Iranians invited people to gather at Enghelab (Revolution) Square in downtown Tehran and spots in other cities on Monday afternoon to “renew the covenant with the martyred imam of the Muslim nation and pledge allegiance to the supreme leader selected by the Assembly of Experts”.

Israeli and US warplanes bombed Tehran and Isfahan in the afternoon, two days after sweeping attacks on the capital’s oil reserves and refineries left thick black smoke hanging over the city.

Rocky road ahead

The younger Khamenei faces myriad challenges, most prominently the threat of assassination in the foreseeable future as the US and Israel have promised to keep taking out Iranian leaders.

Some local and Israeli media have claimed he may have been wounded in a strike, but details were unclear. There was no clarity from officials on whether Khamenei is expected to make an appearance anytime soon.

US President Donald Trump has repeatedly said he is unhappy with the selection and will aim to kill the new leader because he wants the US to play a role in deciding Iran’s future leadership.

The younger Khamenei’s ascension suggests more hardline factions in Iran’s establishment retain power and could indicate that the government has little desire to agree to new negotiations with the US in the short term.

The commanders of the IRGC and the army have continued shooting projectiles since his selection with one IRGC commander telling state television that the country is capable of keeping up considerable attacks for at least six months.

US officials have also expressed eagerness to continue the war in pursuit of their objectives, including dismantling Iran’s nuclear and missile programmes and cutting off support to regional allies in the “axis of resistance”.

Its members – including Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen and armed groups in Iraq – released statements backing Khamenei’s selection.

Khamenei is also leading Iran at a time when the US is trying to curb its oil exports, a key revenue stream, while tightening sanctions that have heavily damaged the Iranian economy.

The Strait of Hormuz is expected to remain a flashpoint area as shipping is disrupted. Iran is also experiencing one of its highest inflation rates in decades at about 70 percent with annual food inflation rates shooting above 100 percent, according to the Statistical Centre of Iran.

The national currency is among the least valuable and most isolated in the world. The government continues to promise that Iran’s population of about 92 million people does not need to worry about shortages of essential goods like food and fuel because contingency plans are in motion.

French President Emmanuel Macron has said France and its allies are preparing a “purely defensive” mission to escort vessels through the Strait of Hormuz once the “most intense phase” of the US-Israeli war on Iran ends.

Speaking in Cyprus on Monday, Macron said the “purely escort mission” must be prepared by both European and non-European countries.

Its purpose “is to enable, as soon as possible after the most intense phase of the conflict has ended, the escort of container ships and tankers to gradually reopen the Strait of Hormuz”, the French president said, without providing further details.

Macron’s comments come as global oil prices have surged amid continued attacks by the United States and Israel against Iran, as well as retaliatory Iranian missile and drone strikes across the wider region.

The war has effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic Gulf waterway through which about 20 percent of the world’s oil supplies pass, while Iranian attacks on energy infrastructure in the Middle East also have raised concerns.

Responding to Macron’s comments, top Iranian security official Ali Larijani said, “It is unlikely that any security will be achieved in the Strait of Hormuz amid the fires of the war ignited by the United States and Israel in the region.”

Larijani added in a social media post that security is also unlikely to be restored as a result of plans designed by “parties that were not far removed from supporting this war and contributing to its fanning”.

While European countries have been largely sidelined as the war escalates, several – including France, the United Kingdom and Greece – have sent military assets to Cyprus following an Iranian-made drone attack on a British base on the island.

Greece has dispatched four F-16 fighter planes to the Paphos airbase and its two state-of-the-art frigates Kimon and Psara are patrolling offshore Cyprus, tasked with intercepting any missiles or drones.

Last week, Macron ordered the French frigate Languedoc to waters off Cyprus to bolster the country’s anti-drone and anti-missile defences.

“When Cyprus is attacked, then Europe is attacked,” Macron said after meeting with Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides and Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis in Paphos on Monday.

The French president said he would also deploy a total of eight warships, two helicopter carriers and the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle to the Eastern Mediterranean and the wider Middle East region, calling the move “unprecedented”.

France’s objective “is to maintain a strictly defensive stance, standing alongside all countries attacked by Iran in its retaliation, to ensure our credibility, and to contribute to regional de-escalation”, Macron said.

“Ultimately, we aim to guarantee freedom of navigation and maritime security.”

With the closure of the Strait of Hormuz sending oil prices soaring, finance ministers from the Group of Seven (G7) countries met in Brussels on Monday to discuss how to respond.

Crude oil prices have increased by about 50 percent since the US and Israel launched the war last month, with international benchmark Brent crude prices surpassing $100 a barrel on Monday.

French Finance Minister Roland Lescure told reporters that the G7 ministers did not make a decision on the potential release of emergency oil stocks amid the war. “What we’ve agreed upon is to use any necessary tools if need be to stabilise the market, including the potential release of necessary stockpiles,” Lescure said.

Paul Hickin, editor-in-chief and chief economist at Petroleum Economist, said getting the Strait of Hormuz reopened is the main priority. “That’s not going to happen in any shape or form until there’s a resolution to the conflict,” Hickin told Al Jazeera.

He explained that several countries in the Middle East, such as Kuwait and Iraq, are dependent on the strait to get their energy supplies to market.

“Kuwait and Iraq and those producers, they are really having a shut-in, and it will take a little bit of time to get back up and running,” said Hickin.

“That is the big risk, the knock-on effect … Getting those ships back, getting that infrastructure back up and running, it’s a slow process. So prices won’t come back down as quickly as many may think.”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said that Kyiv could provide defensive systems as well as assistance to civilians and American soldiers “deployed in certain countries” in the Middle East as the war in Iran continues.

He has reportedly proposed an exchange of Ukrainian defensive technology to combat Iranian drones in return for advanced US defensive systems to use in the war against Russia.

The US-Israel-Iran conflict, which started 10 days ago when the United States and Israel launched strikes on Iran and killed Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has continued to escalate. Iran has responded with strikes on Israel and US military assets and other infrastructure in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

As Gulf and other Middle Eastern states continue to attempt to intercept incoming drones and missiles with US-supplied air defences, the US has asked Ukraine to contribute some of its own air-defence systems.

Here is what we know.

What has the US requested from Ukraine and why?

The US has asked for Ukraine’s help in defending Washington’s allies in the Middle East against Iranian missile attacks on infrastructure and US military assets, Ukraine’s president confirmed last week.

At the moment, the US is using air defence systems such as the Patriot, Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) batteries and Airborne Warning and Control System (AWACS) aircraft, to intercept Iranian drones and missiles targeting its military assets in the region. The Patriot Advanced Capability-2 (PAC-2) and PAC-3 are advanced surface-to-air missile defence systems.

However, these types of systems are extremely expensive, costing millions of dollars for each interceptor missile fired, and there are concerns that supplies of US interceptor missiles could run low.

“We received a request from the United States for specific support in protection against ‘shaheds’ in the Middle East region,” Zelenskyy wrote in an X post on March 5.

Shahed drones, particularly the Shahed-136, are Iranian-designed “kamikaze” or loitering munitions which are very low cost compared to the interceptors being used by the US. Costing roughly $20,000-$35,000 each, these GPS-guided drones are about 3.5m (11.5 feet) long and fly autonomously to pre-programmed coordinates to strike fixed targets with explosive payloads. They blow up as they hit their targets.

Over the course of the Iran war, Shahed-136 drones have targeted Middle Eastern countries including Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar and the UAE where US military assets and troops are hosted. Experts estimate that Iran has thousands of these drones.

Iran has also been supplying Moscow with many thousands of Shahed drones during Russia’s war on Ukraine.

During the course of Russia’s four-year war on Ukraine, Ukraine’s domestic arms industry has been forced to innovate, building low-cost interceptor drones priced at roughly $1,000 to $2,000 to counter Russian attacks with imported Iranian Shahed-136s.

Kyiv is now mass-producing these low-cost interceptor drones.

“The role of Shahed-type drones in long-range attacks has become more prominent in Ukraine after Russia took Iranian technology, improved it, and built it in previously unimaginable numbers,” Keir Giles, a Eurasia expert for the UK-based think tank Chatham House, told Al Jazeera.

What has Zelenskyy said?

Zelenskyy has posted several statements on social media confirming that he is ready to help Middle Eastern countries defend their territories by providing technical expertise.

“Ukrainians have been fighting against ‘shahed’ drones for years now, and everyone recognises that no other country in the world has this kind of experience. We are ready to help,” he wrote on X on March 5.

“I gave instructions to provide the necessary means and ensure the presence of Ukrainian specialists who can guarantee the required security.

“Ukraine helps partners who help ensure our security and protect the lives of our people.”

It is understood that Ukraine is in talks with several Middle Eastern countries about this.

On Monday, Zelenskyy said Ukraine has deployed interceptor drones and a team of specialists to help protect US military bases in Jordan.

Zelenskyy wrote on X that he has also spoken directly to Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) about “countering threats from the Iranian regime”.

He also said he had spoken with the leaders of Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar and the UAE.

Zelenskyy has repeatedly stressed that Ukraine must not weaken its own air defences. However, it is mass-producing this equipment now, and may well be able to afford to share.

“The fact that there are surplus capabilities ready to be sent to the US and the Middle East is unsurprising because Ukraine has led this innovation,” Giles said.

Zelenskyy has therefore proposed an exchange of air defence systems with the US ones being used in the Middle East.

“We ourselves are at war. And I said, completely frankly, that we have a shortage of what they have. They have missiles for the Patriots, but hundreds or thousands of ‘shaheds’ cannot be intercepted with Patriot missiles – it is too costly,” Zelenskyy said.

“Meanwhile, we have a shortage of PAC-2 and PAC-3 missiles. So, when it comes to technology or weapons exchange, I believe our country will be open to it.”

Zelenskyy may also have good political reasons for extending help, analysts say.

“The US has declined support for Ukraine on the ground that it had insufficient supply of air defence munitions, and now more of those Patriots have been fired in the Middle East in a few days, than have been supplied to Ukraine in four years,” Giles said.

“Zelenskyy will be aware that in providing this assistance, he is not only shaming the US, but also directly supporting potential friends and partners in the Middle East, who before now have been ambivalent to the situation in Ukraine,” Giles said.

Who else has sent defensive backup to the Gulf?

European countries including the United Kingdom, France, Spain, Portugal, Greece and Italy have pledged to provide defensive backup to Gulf nations over the past week. Additionally, Australia said it was deploying military assets to the region.

Wary of becoming directly involved in the US-Israeli war on Iran, European countries have nevertheless been drawn into the conflict by attacks on a British base on Cyprus in the Mediterranean and Iranian strikes on Western allies in Gulf countries that host US troops in military bases.

What will happen next?

Just as Ukraine is getting involved in the war, Russia might too, say experts.

“We should not be surprised if before long, as well as Russian technology in Iranian drones, we see Iran launching Shaheds manufactured in Russia,” Giles said.

He described Russia as a “primary beneficiary of current US actions,” pointing to how the surge in oil prices, the relaxation in US curbs on Russian energy exports to keep crude and gas prices under control, and the diversion of air defence munitions from Europe to the Middle East all helped Moscow. These, he said, “are all lifelines for Russia”.

Ministry of National Defence says no casualties or damage after missile shot down over southern city of Gaziantep.

The Turkish Ministry of National Defence says NATO air defences have intercepted a ballistic missile launched from Iran towards Turkiye as concerns grow that the United States-Israel war against Iran will escalate.

The missile was intercepted on Monday over the Sahinbey district of Gaziantep in southern Turkiye, the ministry said in a statement. No casualties or damage were reported.

“Ankara emphasized its capability and determination to protect national airspace and border security, while warning that further escalation in the region must be avoided,” the statement said.

The ministry also urged all sides, especially Tehran, “to refrain from actions that could endanger civilians or undermine regional stability”.

Monday’s incident was the second time an Iranian ballistic missile was fired towards Turkiye since the US and Israel launched a war against Iran on February 28, according to local authorities.

The US-Israeli attacks have prompted a wave of Iranian missile and drone strikes across the wider region, including on targets in Arab Gulf countries.

Iran did not immediately comment on the Turkish ministry’s statement.

NATO spokesperson Allison Hart confirmed that the military alliance had intercepted “a missile heading to Turkiye”. “NATO stands firm in its readiness to defend all Allies against any threat,” Hart said in a post on X.

Iran denied firing a ballistic missile towards Turkiye on Wednesday after Turkish authorities said NATO air defences shot down a projectile over the Eastern Mediterranean.

NATO condemned that launch, expressing its “full solidarity” with Turkiye.

“This is a tangible demonstration of the Alliance’s ability to defend our populations against all threats, including those posed by ballistic missiles,” NATO said of the interception.

Article 5 of the alliance’s North Atlantic Treaty says an attack on one NATO country will be considered an attack on all. It also commits each NATO member state to taking action deemed necessary “to restore and maintain” security.

In an interview with the Reuters news agency last week after the first ballistic missile heading towards Turkiye was shot down, NATO chief Mark Rutte said there was no talk of invoking Article 5.

Iranian authorities have said they are firing at US military bases and other US- and Israel-linked targets across the region in self-defence, but civilian infrastructure has also been attacked.

“Iran’s targets are not just US bases; they are, in fact, primarily large-scale infrastructure and civilian targets as well,” said Rob Geist Pinfold, a lecturer in defence studies at King’s College London.

“This is not a mistake. This is by design,” Pinfold told Al Jazeera, explaining that Tehran is seeking to “unleash as much chaos as possible to destabilise the region and global markets” in an effort to force Washington to abandon the war.

“We’ve seen that Iran is targeting every single [Gulf Cooperation Council] state. It’s prepared to burn its bridges with all of them to pursue this very uncertain and high-risk strategy,” he said.

“It really shows you how Iran feels like it’s facing an existential threat. For them, this is a real do-or-die moment.”

Scott MacFarlane, a high-profile hire for CBS News five years ago, announced Monday he is leaving the network.

MacFarlane told colleagues in an email that the departure is his decision.

“I will always value the opportunity I had to work alongside the talented and committed professionals here,” MacFarlane said. “I’m proud to have had the words ‘CBS correspondent’ next to my name and always will be.”

MacFarlane added that he looks forward to “some independence and finding new spaces to share my work in line with my personal goals.”

MacFarlane is the first significant name to depart CBS News since parent company Paramount won its bid to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery on Feb. 27. CBS News is likely to be combined with Warner Bros. Discovery‘s CNN if the deal gets regulatory approval.

Journalists at CBS News have also been concerned over the moves by Bari Weiss, the contrarian opinion writer and founder of the digital news site the Free Press who was brought in as editor in chief of the division. Weiss was recruited by Paramount Chief Executive David Ellison with a mandate to move CBS News to the political center.

Weiss is expected to make significant changes to “60 Minutes” and other CBS News programs in the coming months.

Executives at other TV news organizations say privately that they are seeing a heavy influx of resumes from CBS News journalists due to the upheaval at the company.

MacFarlane covered Congress and the Justice Department. CBS viewers saw him featured during extended network coverage of the State of the Union addresses and election nights.

MacFarlane was in Butler, Pa., during the assassination attempt of President Trump in July 2024. He reported the first accounts of the shooting scene and emergency responses moments after the shots were fired.

Before arriving at CBS News, MacFarlane served for eight years as an investigative reporter for WRC-TV, the NBC station in Washington, D.C.

Palestinian journalist Amal Shamali, who worked as a correspondent for Qatar Radio, has been killed in an Israeli air strike on the Nuseirat refugee camp in central Gaza, the Palestinian Journalists Syndicate (PJS) says.

Shamali, who was killed on Monday, also “worked with several Arab and local media outlets and was among the journalists who continued performing their media mission despite the ongoing assault and war on the Gaza Strip”, the PJS said in a statement.

More than 270 journalists and media workers have been killed in Gaza since Israel launched a genocidal war against Palestinians in the territory on October 7, 2023, in response to Hamas-led attacks on southern Israel.

“This represents one of the bloodiest periods for journalists in modern history, reflecting the scale of the deliberate targeting of Palestinian journalism in an attempt to silence the voice of truth and prevent the documentation of the crimes and violations committed against the Palestinian people,” the PJS said.

The PJS also said: “Targeting journalists will not succeed in breaking the will of the Palestinian journalistic community or deterring it from fulfilling its professional and humanitarian mission of conveying the truth and documenting the crimes and aggression faced by the Palestinian people.”

Gaza’s Government Media Office released a statement after Shamali’s killing, saying it “strongly condemns the systematic targeting, killing, and assassination of Palestinian journalists by the Israeli occupation”.

The office also said it “holds the Israeli occupation, the U.S. administration, and the countries participating in the crime of genocide – such as the United Kingdom, Germany, and France – fully responsible for committing these heinous and brutal crimes”.

It called on international and regional media associations, the international community and human rights organisations to condemn “the crimes” committed against Palestinian journalists and media professionals working in Gaza and to work towards holding Israel accountable for its “ongoing crimes” against Palestinian journalists.

Israeli attacks have killed about 13 journalists every month over more than two years of war, according to a tally by Shireen.ps, a monitoring website named after Al Jazeera journalist Shireen Abu Akleh, who was shot and killed by Israeli forces in the occupied West Bank in 2022.

Of those journalists, at least 10 of them worked for Al Jazeera, including Al Jazeera Arabic correspondent Anas al-Sharif, who had reported extensively from northern Gaza.

Israel’s war on Gaza has been the single deadliest conflict for journalists.

According to Brown University’s Costs of War project, more journalists have been killed in Gaza since the war began on October 7, 2023, than in the US Civil War, World Wars I and II, the Korean War, Vietnam War, the wars in the former Yugoslavia and the post-9/11 war in Afghanistan – combined.

As per a report released early this year by the International Federation of Journalists (IFJ), Palestine was the deadliest place to work as a journalist in 2025.

The IFJ said the Middle East was the most dangerous region for media professionals, accounting for 74 deaths last year – more than half of the 128 journalists and media workers killed.

The Middle East was followed by Africa with 18 deaths, the Asia Pacific (15), the Americas (11) and Europe (10), according to the report.

Since a US- and Qatar-brokered “ceasefire” came into effect in October, 640 Palestinians have been killed and at least 1,700 wounded, according to Gaza’s Ministry of Health. At least 72,123 Palestinians have been killed since October 2023 while 171,805 people have been injured. At least 1,139 people were killed in the Hamas-led attacks on Israel on October 7, 2023.

Hezbollah reported on Monday that its fighters engaged Israeli troops in eastern Lebanon during an overnight airborne raid, marking the second such operation in the area in recent days. The conflict between Israel and the Iran-backed group has drawn Lebanon deeper into the regional war, which began after Hezbollah opened fire to avenge the killing of Iran’s former supreme leader.

The Israeli military has not immediately commented on the latest Hezbollah claim. In previous operations, the military carried out airstrikes across Hezbollah-controlled southern Beirut, including targeting financial institutions like Al-Qard Al-Hassan. Lebanese authorities report nearly 400 people have been killed in the country since March 2, including 83 children and 42 women, though the toll does not distinguish combatants from civilians. Israel confirmed two soldier deaths in southern Lebanon—the first Israeli military casualties since the outbreak of hostilities.

Expanding Operations

Hezbollah stated that around 15 Israeli helicopters flew over eastern Lebanon after midnight, deploying troops observed approaching Lebanese territory from Syria. The region, the Bekaa Valley, is a stronghold of Hezbollah’s political and security apparatus. This follows a similar Israeli raid near Nabi Chit on March 2–3, which Lebanese officials said killed 41 people. Israel described that previous operation as an attempt to recover the remains of Ron Arad, a navigator missing since 1986.

Civilian Displacement and Urban Strikes

The war has prompted mass displacement, with hundreds of thousands fleeing southern Lebanon and Beirut’s southern suburbs, known as Dahiyeh. Israeli strikes have also hit locations outside Hezbollah strongholds. On Sunday, a drone strike in Beirut’s Rouche seafront district reportedly killed five senior commanders of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Quds Force, illustrating the widening geographic and operational scope of the conflict.

Strategic Posturing

Israel has reinforced its military presence in southern Lebanon, establishing forward defensive positions in anticipation of potential Hezbollah attacks into Israel. The military maintains troops at five positions in the region, a posture originating from the 2024 war with Hezbollah.

Analysis: Escalation Risks

The repeated incursions and airstrikes signal a deepening and increasingly unpredictable phase of the Israel-Hezbollah conflict. Hezbollah’s engagement of Israeli forces in eastern Lebanon demonstrates its capacity to operate beyond the southern front, potentially broadening the battlefield.

For Israel, the operations appear aimed at both tactical objectives such as neutralizing high-value targets—and broader deterrence, signaling its intent to strike Hezbollah assets and Iranian-linked operatives throughout Lebanon. For Lebanese civilians, however, the widening conflict exacerbates humanitarian pressures, including casualties, mass displacement, and infrastructure destruction.

The situation underscores the risk of further regional escalation, with Syria and Iran-linked actors already drawn into the conflict, raising the possibility of a protracted war with extensive human and geopolitical costs.

With information from Reuters.

The ongoing U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran has sent oil prices soaring, rattling global financial markets and prompting governments to implement urgent measures to protect their economies and citizens from energy shortages and rising costs. As the war disrupts critical supply routes through the Strait of Hormuz, countries heavily reliant on oil imports are scrambling to stabilize domestic fuel supplies and mitigate inflationary pressures.

South Korea Caps Fuel Prices

In a historic move, South Korean President Lee Jae Myung announced that the government would cap domestic fuel prices for the first time in nearly 30 years. Authorities are also seeking alternative energy sources beyond shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. To support the measure, a 100 trillion won ($67 billion) market-stabilization program may be expanded if necessary, reflecting the severity of the supply shock.

Japan Prepares Strategic Oil Reserves

Japan has instructed a national oil reserve storage facility to prepare for a possible release of crude oil, according to opposition party lawmaker Akira Nagatsuma. While precise details and timing remain unclear, this measure underscores Japan’s reliance on strategic reserves to manage sudden spikes in global energy prices.

Vietnam Removes Fuel Import Tariffs

Vietnam is temporarily eliminating import tariffs on fuels to ensure continued domestic supply amidst global disruptions. The government expects this measure to remain in effect until the end of April, aiming to reduce cost pressures on both businesses and consumers.

Indonesia Boosts Fuel Subsidies and Biodiesel Plans

Indonesia is increasing budget allocations for fuel subsidies, currently totaling 381.3 trillion rupiah ($22.5 billion), to offset rising energy costs and maintain affordable electricity and fuel prices. The government may also revive plans to expand the B50 biodiesel program, blending 50% palm oil-based biodiesel with conventional diesel, as a longer-term strategy to reduce dependency on imported oil.

China Halts Fuel Exports

China has directed refiners to suspend new fuel export contracts and attempt to cancel previously committed shipments. This policy excludes jet fuel for international flights, bonded bunkering, and supplies to Hong Kong or Macau. The move is designed to secure domestic fuel availability amid soaring global prices.

Bangladesh Closes Universities and Rations Fuel

Bangladesh, which depends on imports for 95% of its energy, has implemented emergency measures including university closures and rationing fuel sales to conserve electricity and fuel. Daily fuel sale limits were imposed after panic buying and stockpiling, highlighting the country’s vulnerability to regional energy disruptions.

Analysis: A Coordinated Global Response

These measures illustrate the unprecedented economic ripple effects of the Middle East conflict. Countries with high import dependency are balancing immediate crisis management such as subsidies, price caps, and rationing with longer-term energy strategies, including strategic reserve releases and alternative fuel initiatives.

The rapid policy responses also underscore the fragility of global energy markets in the face of geopolitical conflicts. Central banks and governments must navigate a complex trade-off: containing inflation while ensuring sufficient energy supply to prevent industrial slowdowns and social unrest.

As the conflict persists, global energy markets remain highly volatile, and governments may need to continue adjusting policy tools to stabilize domestic economies, with potential implications for trade, inflation, and energy security worldwide.

With information from Reuters.