Nepal

Gurdaspur, Punjab, India – Ramesh Kumar, 42, is anxiously doing the calculations for his crops this year.

Standing at the edge of his wheat field in northwest Punjab’s Gurdaspur, he runs through the numbers in his head, totting up fertiliser costs, expected yield, and market prices.

Then he shifts to more personal concerns: School fees, household expenses, loan repayments and the money he has been saving for his daughter Varsha’s wedding.

“I don’t know if we can afford it this year,” he says. “Everything depends on the crop.”

The uncertainty has crept in quietly.

Fertiliser, once a fairly predictable staple in farming, has become more expensive and harder to secure in time. For Kumar, it is not so much a question of cost as it is the difference between stability and strain.

“If prices go up more, we will have to cut somewhere,” he says. “Maybe delay the wedding. If things get worse … even children’s education becomes difficult.”

School fees for his eldest son, Amit, 12, are due in the coming weeks, and Kumar has been setting aside money for his younger daughter Varsha’s future wedding.

It’s never easily affordable, even in good times. “We somehow manage,” Kumar says. “But if the harvest is weak, then we have to think about what to prioritise, what to delay.”

For farmers like him across South Asia, the United States-Israel war on Iran – unfolding thousands of kilometres away – is not just a matter of distant geopolitics.

It is shaping decisions inside their homes.

A distant crisis with local consequences

At the centre of the unfolding crisis is the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow shipping lane more than 2,000km (1,240 miles) from India’s northern plains. It lies between Iran and Oman, linking the Gulf and its oil producers to the open ocean and, from there, to global markets.

About one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies pass through this body of water, which Iran closed down shortly after the first US-Israeli strikes on Tehran on February 28.

Vast volumes of LNG, essential for manufacturing nitrogen-based fertilisers, are transported from Gulf producers to Asia via this route. Any disruption can delay shipments, push up freight and insurance costs and place a stranglehold on supply.

Interruptions to the supply of fertiliser can ripple quickly, reducing crop yields, increasing costs and raising food prices.

The risks are already being felt thousands of kilometres away.

South Asia, home to nearly two billion people, relies heavily on fertiliser-intensive farming to produce staple crops such as wheat and rice. Over the past few decades, the increasing use of fertilisers – which can hugely boost crop yields – has played a key role in agricultural productivity across the region.

The agriculture sector now employs about 46 percent of the workforce in India, about 38 percent in Pakistan, nearly 40 percent in Bangladesh, and more than 60 percent in Nepal.

The degree to which countries in the region depend on the Strait of Hormuz varies, but all rely heavily on the trade in fertilisers that this shipping route facilitates.

In India, the agriculture sector is worth $400bn, according to Indian government and World Bank data, and supports the livelihoods of more than half the population, either directly or indirectly. More than 100 million farming families are directly dependent on the sector.

The country imports a substantial share of its fertiliser requirements and other key raw materials, particularly phosphates and potash, as well as natural gas used to manufacture fertiliser, with about 30–35 percent of these supplies moving through or originating from routes that pass via the Strait of Hormuz.

In Pakistan, the agriculture sector contributes close to 20 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), according to Pakistan government estimates, and employs millions. About 20-25 percent of Pakistan’s fertiliser imports, particularly DAP (diammonium phosphate), pass through the Strait of Hormuz at some point in transit. Additionally, the sector relies on domestic natural gas for the production of urea, a key nitrogen-based fertiliser and, with Gulf natural gas supplies held up in the Strait of Hormuz, the price of natural gas everywhere – even at home – is on the rise.

In Bangladesh, where millions of smallholder farmers rely heavily on imported fertilisers, the agricultural sector accounts for about 12-13 percent of GDP, according to government data. The country’s farming industry relies heavily on imported fertilisers to sustain crops, meaning farmers are highly exposed to international supply shocks and price swings.

Furthermore, roughly 25-30 percent of Bangladesh’s imported fertiliser is shipped via routes passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

Nepal, where agriculture contributes about 24 percent of GDP, imports nearly all of its fertiliser needs, with about 25-30 percent of arriving via India, via the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz.

Livelihoods at stake

Overall, even minor disruption in the Gulf – let alone the complete closure of the critical Strait of Hormuz – can have dire consequences for hundreds of millions of people.

The Indian government has sought to reassure farmers that supplies remain secure – for now.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi told Parliament on March 23: “Adequate arrangements have been made for fertiliser supply for the summer sowing season…The government has diversified options for oil, gas and fertiliser imports… Domestic production of urea, DAP and NPK [nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium fertilisers] has been expanded… Farmers now have access to Made in India Nano Urea and are encouraged to adopt natural farming…”

He added: “Under the PM Kusum scheme, more than 22 lakh (2.2 million) solar pumps have been provided, reducing dependence on diesel… I am confident that through joint efforts, India will manage these challenges effectively and continue to support our farmers.”

On the ground, however, confidence is low. Farmers say uncertainty is already influencing decisions.

In Pampore, in the south of Indian-administered Kashmir, 53-year-old mustard farmer Ghulam Rasool says price signals travel faster than supply disruptions.

“We hear about war, about shipping problems,” he tells Al Jazeera. “Even before shortages happen, fertiliser becomes expensive.”

Rasool says farmers often respond early by cutting down on the amount of fertiliser they are using, even before actual shortages emerge.

“If we use less, production will fall,” he says. “But sometimes we have no choice.”

In Pakistan’s South Punjab, wheat farmer Muneer Ahmad, 45, is preparing for the next sowing cycle.

“If fertiliser becomes expensive, it will affect everyone here,” he says.

Government officials have expressed confidence in Pakistan’s fertiliser supply amid the Middle East conflict, and claim the government is fully prepared to ensure adequate supplies during the region’s peak sowing period, which typically begins between April and June, depending on the crop.

According to a statement by Pakistan’s federal secretary for agriculture to Al Jazeera, Federal Minister Rana Tanveer Hussain told a meeting on March 25 that the government has started proactive monitoring, is expanding domestic urea and DAP production and taking steps to ensure fertilisers reach farmers at affordable prices.

However, urea production requires supplies of natural gas, meaning global energy price shocks can still translate into rising production costs.

For farmers, even small increases matter

“We already have loans and expenses,” Ahmad says. “If costs go up, we feel it immediately.”

In Rangpur, northwestern Bangladesh, farmer Mohammad Ibrahim, 41, says fertiliser supplies are already becoming unpredictable.

“Sometimes it is available, sometimes not,” he says. “And when it comes, the price is higher.”

Meanwhile, in Nepal’s Gulmi district, farmer Meghnath Aryal, 38, worries that crops will be reduced if a major supply problem does appear.

“If fertiliser does not arrive on time, the crop suffers,” he says. “If it becomes expensive, we reduce use.”

Bangladesh’s Agriculture Secretary Rafiqul Mohammad told Al Jazeera the government is “closely monitoring the situation” and officials have tried to reassure farmers that fertiliser supplies are sufficient for the coming months.

The government has finalised plans to import about 500,000 tonnes of urea in the near term, while also exploring alternative suppliers such as China and Morocco to secure additional supplies in the longer term.

There is no immediate shortage at present, the Agriculture Ministry says.

Ram Krishna Shrestha, joint secretary at Nepal’s Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Development, told Al Jazeera that fertiliser distribution within the country remains largely stable for now, with supplies already secured for the upcoming rainy season, particularly for paddy crops such as rice.

However, he warned that there may be delays to contracted shipments as a result of the Middle East crisis.

“We have managed fertilisers for the upcoming season, but there could be challenges in timely supply because of the current situation,” he said, pointing to global price increases and logistical disruptions, including those caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Shrestha added that as companies report shortages and rising prices in international markets, the government has asked suppliers to expedite deliveries.

“Authorities are also advising farmers to increase the use of traditional nutrient sources such as farmyard manure, compost, green manuring and azolla [a natural fertiliser] to offset any potential shortfall in chemical fertilisers,” he said.

No immediate new fertiliser subsidies have been announced, he said, though adjustments remain under discussion as the situation evolves.

Rising food prices on the horizon

The implications extend beyond individual farmers.

Across South Asia, fertiliser use has been central to maintaining crop yields – and keeping large populations fed. Any reduction in availability or increase in costs can quickly lower production. That, in turn, pushes up food prices, a sensitive issue in a region where households spend a large proportion of their income on food.

For governments, the challenge is complex.

In the past, subsidies have kept fertilisers affordable for farmers, but this becomes a fragile balancing act if global prices rise, placing additional pressure on public finances.

In India, Ramesh Kumar is already making adjustments – but he is walking a tightrope.

He has decided to use less fertiliser this season, even though he knows it could reduce yields.

“It is a risk,” he says. “But what choice do we have?”

Lower production will mean less income and harder decisions at home.

“School fees have to be paid,” he says. “Household expenses cannot stop.” He looks across his field.

“And the wedding… we will see.”

Ultimately, sacrifices will have to be made in his household.

Across borders, the same uncertainty is unfolding.

In Pakistan, Ahmad is worried about rising costs. In Bangladesh, Ibrahim is mostly concerned about the availability of fertiliser and, in Nepal, Aryal fears delays in supply.

For Ramesh Kumar, the stakes are clear.

“For others, this is about war,” he says. “For us, it is about whether we can take care of our family.”

Balendra Shah, 35, and his three-year-old Rastriya Swatantra Party won a landslide after Gen-Z protests toppled the former government.

Balendra Shah, Nepal’s youngest prime minister, has been sworn in after his party’s landslide election victory following protests led by young people that toppled the government in September.

A rapper-turned politician, Shah was appointed prime minister by President Ram Chandra Paudel on Friday, after his three-year-old Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) won 182 seats in the 275-member parliament in the March 5 vote, the first election since anticorruption Gen Z-led protests in which 76 people were killed.

The 35-year-old wore black trousers, a matching jacket, his signature black Nepali cloth cap and sunglasses as he was sworn in at the President House, in the presence of diplomats and senior government officials.

A day earlier, the new premier, better known as Balen, released his first public statement since the historic vote with a rap song shared on social media.

“Nepal is not scared this time, the heart is full of red blood … Laughter and happiness will reach every household this time,” Shah raps in the song titled Jay Mahakaali (Victory to Goddess Mahakali).

His music video, which features visuals of large crowds cheering him during his election campaign, has racked up nearly three million views.

“The strength of unity is my national power,” his lyrics continue.

A former mayor of the capital, Kathmandu, Shah is Nepal’s first Madhesi premier – people of the southern plains bordering India – to lead the Himalayan nation.

China extended its congratulations to Nepal on the swearing-in of Shah, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs said on Friday, adding it will support its Himalayan neighbour in safeguarding its independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity.

Protests had raged over a lack of jobs and endemic corruption in the country of 30 million, where a fifth of the population lives in poverty and an estimated 1,500 people leave the country daily for work abroad.

Although he did not directly participate in the protests, Shah publicly expressed support for the largely Generation Z demonstrators who led the movement.

Political instability has been an uphill challenge for Nepal, with 32 governments taking office since 1990 and none of them completing a five-year term.

The Nepali Congress party, the country’s oldest party, became a distant second group in parliament with just 38 seats. The Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist) of KP Sharma Oli, who was forced to resign after the Gen Z unrest, controls 25 members.

Former Chief Justice Sushila Karki led the nation through the interim period up to the parliamentary election.

For the first 18 years of post-monarchy Nepal, the country had 14 prime ministers — leaders changing almost every year, with some taking office, being forced out, and then returning again a few years later.

On March 5, Nepal appeared to draw a line in the sand. Months after a Gen Z-led uprising ousted the then prime minister, KP Sharma Oli, millions of voters chose rapper-turned politician Balendra Shah — or Balen as he is widely known — and his Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) to lead the nation. On Friday, March 27, Shah was sworn in as Nepal’s prime minister.

The RSP is barely four years old, and Shah’s only prior political experience is as mayor of the capital, Kathmandu.

Now, with a landslide win, analysts and voters say that Shah and the RSP have an historic opportunity to build on the popular 2025 revolt and deliver on the aspirations of young Nepalis. But with that opportunity comes risks, they add.

“There is so much excitement with the heavy mandate. This is a historical and unprecedented opportunity for him to execute his agenda because his party is likely to have close to a two-thirds majority,” political analyst Bishnu Sapkota told Al Jazeera. But, he added, “ expectations are enormous. I do not think it is realistic for him to fully meet them.”

Too big a mandate?

In the election, Shah defeated Oli in a constituency that had been the former prime minister’s stronghold for decades. The RSP won 125 of the 165 first-past-the-post seats in parliament. Seats determined through proportional representation — 110 seats are up for grabs — are yet to be divided among parties, but everything points to a two-thirds majority for the RSP.

That’s a larger mandate than even the RSP itself expected.

“We were expecting just over a 50 percent majority, but a two-thirds mandate was beyond our expectations,” RSP leader Shishir Khanal told Al Jazeera. Khanal, who was a lawmaker in the outgoing parliament, won re-election on March 5.

“The challenge is that such a mandate creates very high expectations among people, who want fast results. Given Nepal’s institutional capacity and almost stagnant economic growth, delivering those results will be extremely difficult.”

One immediate test for Shah will be implementing the findings of the Karki Commission, formed by the interim Sushila Karki government that took charge after Oli’s ouster last year. The commission was tasked with investigating the killings and property damage during the Gen Z movement last year. The panel submitted its report to the government last Sunday. This interim government is expected to hand over the investigation to the incoming Shah government to implement.

“There is a popular demand that the report be made public and implemented quickly,” Sapkota, the analyst, said. “If the interim government hands over the report as promised, implementation will have to happen in stages. As soon as he begins doing that, political reactions will follow, and he will have to manage them carefully.” The protests last year were driven by public anger over corruption, poor governance and lack of accountability, issues that voters expect the new government to address urgently. High-profile corruption investigations involving politicians are likely to be among the upcoming government’s first major tasks.

That won’t be an easy challenge to address.

Shah joined the RSP only weeks before the election, and was nominated as its prime ministerial candidate, while Rabi Lamichhane, the television presenter-turned-politician who founded the party, remains its president.

Lamichhane himself remains a controversial figure, facing allegations of fraud, organised crime and money laundering. He has previously served jail sentences and is currently out on bail. Lamichhane is accused of illegally holding two passports, US and Nepali, which is forbidden under Nepali law.

Two power centres?

The relationship between Shah and Lamichhane — and the balance of power between them — will also come under scrutiny, say experts.

Gehendra Lal Malla, professor of political science at Tribhuvan University in Kathmandu, described their alliance as a “marriage of convenience”.

“Balen needed a party to contest the election, and Rabi needed Balen’s popularity,” he said. “But differences could emerge later.”

Malla said Shah will also face a difficult test in dealing with the ongoing charges against Lamichhane. “We have a culture in Nepal where politicians protect each other,” he said. “Shah must uphold the rule of law and not protect anyone from his own party.”

At the same time, Malla noted that Shah’s popularity was the main factor behind the RSP’s success. “Balen’s appeal was the reason the party gained such a huge mandate,” he said. “He could end up having a stronger grip on the party than its president.”

Analyst Sapkota said that the RSP leadership, including Lamichhane, would need to acknowledge that the overwhelming mandate they received was largely because of Shah’s appeal. “They have to recognise that and give Shah absolute freedom to form the cabinet of his choice. Of course, the party can give their inputs and suggestions,” said Sapkota.

Khanal said, based on the conversation and an agreement they had signed, Shah will lead the government and Lamichhane the party. “From that perspective, they have their individual role sorted out, and both will have to face challenges and manage expectations on their own respective front,” Khanal told Al Jazeera.  “I have observed them work very closely together within the last election cycle and campaigning. Their decision-making has also been in collaboration. So, with what I have experienced so far, there wouldn’t be any friction between them.”

The first 100 days

For Sapkota, Shah’s political novelty might work in his favour. “He doesn’t have the baggage of party cadres and internal factions,” Sapkota said. “That gives him more freedom compared to previous prime ministers.”

RSP leaders say the government plans to move quickly. “In the first 100 days, the honeymoon period, people will begin to see changes,” Khanal said.

The party has planned to prioritise anticorruption measures, including investigations into the wealth of senior officials and politicians since 1990. “We want to form a commission to investigate the assets of high-level officials and reopen high-profile corruption cases that were paused,” Khanal said.

These steps respond directly to the demands of last year’s Gen Z protests.

For many young activists who drove the protests, the election result represents hope, but also a new government that must be held accountable.

Gen Z activist Yujan Rajbhandari, 23, said the new government must prioritise good governance and protect civic freedoms, or face pushback from the same movement that enabled its rise. “With the RSP’s large majority, parliamentary opposition will be weak,” he said. “So the streets will play a major role as opposition.”

Beyond immediate reforms, Nepal is in the middle of a debate about whether to introduce broader constitutional reforms — with questions about how decentralised power needs to be.

Khanal said the party plans to establish a committee to review whether amendments may be necessary.

Shah’s critics have also questioned his diplomatic skills, citing past social media posts attacking Nepal’s neighbours, including India and China, and important partners such as the US. As Kathmandu mayor, he briefly banned Indian films and displayed a “Greater Nepal” map that showed Indian territory as part of an aspirational larger Nepal.

Sapkota said those concerns were being overblown.

“When he made those remarks, he was a mayor, not a national leader responsible for foreign policy,” he said. Sapkota argued that Shah’s lack of political baggage could allow Nepal to pursue a more independent diplomacy. “This is a clean slate,” he said. “Previous leaders had historical ties and obligations with different countries. Shah does not have that baggage, which could give Nepal greater independence.”

Neighbouring India has already signalled a willingness to work with Nepal’s new leadership.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi congratulated both Shah and Lamichhane after the election and expressed hopes for stronger bilateral relations. Shah responded by emphasising the importance of maintaining the “historical, close and multifaceted relations” between Nepal and India and congratulating India for their recent T20 Cricket World Cup win.

For Malla, another important element to watch would be Shah’s relationship with the media. “Balen should engage more with the press once he becomes prime minister,” he said. “In the past, he has often said he prefers to work more and talk less. But as a national leader, communication and accountability are essential.”

Rastriya Swatantra Party, founded just four years ago, set to dominate new parliament with near two-thirds majority.

A political party led by a rapper-turned-politician has won a sweeping parliamentary majority in Nepal, official results show, capping one of the most dramatic elections in the country’s recent history.

The Rastriya Swatantra Party of Balendra Shah, a 35-year-old former civil engineer and hip-hop artist known simply as “Balen”, secured 182 seats in the 275-member lower house of parliament, the Election Commission said on Thursday, with 125 won directly and a further 57 through proportional representation.

The Nepali Congress party finished in second place, with 38 seats. The Marxist party of veteran four-time Prime Minister Khadga Prasad Sharma Oli, whose government was ousted in a youth-led uprising last year, won just 25 seats.

Shah himself defeated the 74-year-old Oli in his own constituency.

Oli, who had dominated Nepali politics for years, congratulated his rival on X, wishing him a “smooth and successful” term.

The September 2025 protests that reshaped the country’s political landscape were initially set off by a government ban on social media, but rapidly swelled into a mass movement against corruption and economic stagnation, leaving at least 77 people dead.

Shah, whose music had long targeted those same grievances, emerged as a figurehead of the unrest, his song Nepal Haseko, or Nepal Smiling, accumulating more than 10 million YouTube views during the turmoil.

His path to likely prime minister, from engineer to rapper to Kathmandu’s first independent mayor in 2022, reflects a generational shift in a country where more than 40 percent of the nearly 30 million population is under 35, yet whose established party leadership has long remained in its 70s.

Shah said his victory was a signal of refusal to take “the easy way out” and a reckoning with the “problems and betrayals that have affected the country.”

The RSP, founded the same year as his mayoral win, ran a highly organised campaign backed by diaspora funding, particularly from Nepali communities in the United States.

Nepalese journalist Pranaya Rana described Shah to Al Jazeera as embodying “the outsider spirit that many young Nepalis are looking for to shake up the status quo.”

India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi called the vote a “proud moment” in Nepal’s democratic journey, pledging close cooperation with the incoming government.

Under Nepal’s constitutional process, parties must now submit names to fill proportionally allocated seats before parliament is formally summoned by the president. A new prime minister, who will need the support of at least half of all members, is not expected to be confirmed for several days.