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Saudi Arabia could become the next customer for the Lockheed Martin F-35, with the Trump administration reportedly weighing up the sale of up to 48 jets to the kingdom. Selling the stealth jet to Saudi Arabia would be a significant policy shift, with Washington previously being unwilling to export F-35s to Arab states in the region, for fear of upsetting the strategic balance in relation to Israel.

According to a Reuters report, which cites two unnamed sources said to be familiar with the matter, the U.S. administration is considering whether to approve the deal, ahead of a visit to the United States by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler. The crown prince is due to meet U.S. President Donald Trump on November 18. The potential deal has apparently already been given the green light by the Pentagon, where it was discussed at the highest levels for “months.”

Citing one of those sources and an unnamed U.S. official, the same report claims that Saudi Arabia made a new request for F-35s earlier this year, with a direct appeal to Trump. The U.S. official and a second U.S. official confirmed to Reuters that the weapons deal “was moving through the system,” but, before it was formally approved, it would need “further approvals at the Cabinet level, sign-off from Trump, and notification of Congress.”

Approval of the sale of F-35s to Saudi Arabia would be a big deal.

So far, despite previous interest both from the Saudis and from the United Arab Emirates, the United States has refused to export the stealth jets to operators in the Middle East, other than Israel.

This has been driven primarily by the U.S. requirement to maintain Israel’s so-called qualitative military edge, a guarantee that Israel will be prioritized for advanced U.S. weapons ahead of Arab states in the region.

The Israeli Air Force’s F-35I fleet is very much at the cutting edge of the country’s air warfare capabilities. Israel is currently buying 75 F-35s, and these will incorporate an increasing proportion of Israeli-made technology and weapons. The Israeli jets, known locally as Adir, have already seen extensive combat use, including against Iran.

A Saudi F-35 deal was also discussed under the Biden administration, as part of a broader deal that sought to normalize the kingdom’s relations with Israel.

While the proposal fell through, Trump has put a much greater emphasis on arms sales to Saudi Arabia since he took office earlier this year.

The centerpiece of these efforts was the roughly $142-billion arms package agreed between Washington and Riyadh in May of this year. The White House described it as “the largest defense cooperation agreement” in U.S. history. Saudi Arabia is already the biggest customer of U.S. weapons.

Whatever Trump’s view of the potential F-35 sale, there will likely be some pushback from U.S. lawmakers.

At the Congressional level, there has been previous scrutiny around arms sales to Saudi Arabia, especially after the 2018 murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. Other nations, too, have held back from selling weapons to Saudi Arabia amid concerns over the country’s human rights abuses, as well as its role in the Yemen war.

Even without the F-35, the Royal Saudi Air Force (RSAF) operates an extremely modern and advanced fleet of fighters. It received 84 of the new-build F-15SA, which was the most advanced variant of the Strike Eagle family available until the appearance of the Qatari F-15QA and the U.S. Air Force’s F-15EX Eagle II. Meanwhile, the 68-strong fleet of earlier F-15S aircraft has been upgraded locally to a similar standard, known as F-15SR (for Saudi Retrofit).

The RSAF also received 72 Eurofighter Typhoons. Older, but still capable, are around 80 British-supplied Panavia Tornado IDS swing-wing strike aircraft, which continue in service in the strike role.

The F-35s would be the likely replacement for the aging Tornados.

Saudi Arabia was long expected to buy more Typhoons, in a deal that would be brokered by BAE Systems of the United Kingdom. At one time, Saudi Arabia had even looked at the possibility of local assembly of these aircraft.

However, since Eurofighter is a multinational company, exports have to be approved by the other partners: Germany, Italy, and Spain. Germany — which has a stake in Eurofighter via the German arm of Airbus — has consistently blocked further Typhoon sales to Saudi Arabia, citing human rights concerns.

Meanwhile, BAE Systems and the U.K. government have tried to finalize a Saudi deal for 48 more Typhoons since 2018.

TWZ spoke to Justin Bronk, Senior Research Fellow for Airpower and Technology at the U.K.-based Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) think tank, for his prognosis of a potential new Saudi Typhoon deal.

“I think it’s still relatively likely,” he said, “given that the RSAF, by all accounts, is very happy with its Typhoon fleet, and particularly with the support the United Kingdom provides through BAE Systems, including training Saudi pilots in Saudi Arabia.”

Bronk also raised the possibility that a follow-on Typhoon deal could be linked to Saudi participation in the Global Combat Air Program, or GCAP, the effort under which the United Kingdom’s Tempest next-generation fighter is being developed, in partnership with Italy and Japan. However, that would be far from easy, since workshare arrangements have already been agreed between the three partners.

With a potential Typhoon deal still hanging in the air, Saudi Arabia entered talks to buy 54 Dassault Rafale multirole fighters, as we reported back in 2023. Buying a French fighter would be something of a new development for Saudi Arabia, but it would also reflect Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s aim to diversify its defense partnerships, part of the Vision 2030 modernization plan. This also calls for a continuation of the long-established security relationship with the United States.

More recently, Boeing confirmed that it was offering the F-15EX Eagle II to Saudi Arabia.

“The F-15EX is the right fit, adding critical capability for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) as the country seeks to accelerate its armed forces modernization,” a Boeing spokesperson told TWZ in May 2024. “The F-15EX complements Saudi Arabia’s existing F-15 fleet with 95 percent commonality that includes infrastructure, training, and trainer devices, and pilot skill overlap. We are ready to support our longtime and valued customers in Saudi Arabia with the most capable air superiority aircraft in production today.”

It could be that a four-horse race is now on the cards, with Saudi Arabia weighing up the options of buying more Typhoons, Rafales, F-15EX, or, providing U.S. approval is forthcoming, F-35s.

The F-35 is the most capable of these options and would be the most significant in terms of the modernization of the RSAF fighter fleet. This effort is primarily driven by the threat posed by Iran, Saudi Arabia’s major regional adversary, although tensions between the two powers have subsided in recent years. Increasingly, Iran has projected its power across the region, including backing militant groups but also undertaking its own extensive maritime activities in the Persian Gulf and further afield.

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia has also been waging a long-running campaign against the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen. This has seen the extensive use of RSAF fighter jets.

The only other Arab country in the region to have come close to buying F-35s was the United Arab Emirates. An arms package, approved at the end of the previous Trump administration, and valued at up to $23.37 billion, included 50 F-35As, up to 18 MQ-9B drones, and $10-billion-worth of advanced munitions. In 2021, the Emirati government reportedly said it wanted to scrap the plan, due to concerns over stringent safeguards to protect these systems against Chinese espionage.

For the RSAF, the path to receiving the F-35 is made simpler by the thawing relations between Saudi Arabia — and other Arab nations in the Middle East — and Israel. Such a deal could also be linked to the kingdom signing up to the Abraham Accords, a set of agreements that establishes normalized diplomatic relations between Israel and several Arab states. The Trump administration has pushed for Saudi Arabia to sign up to the accords, which would be a huge breakthrough, following the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Morocco.

Another possibility might be to offer Saudi Arabia less-advanced versions of the F-35, perhaps in the latest Technology Refresh 3, or TR-3, configuration, but without the massive Block 4 upgrade, which supports a brand-new radar and a host of other capabilities. Secondhand jets could be another option, provided a source for these can be found.

Ultimately, Saudi Arabia may well add a fifth-generation fighter to its already impressive fourth-generation fighters, the Boeing F-15SA and Eurofighter Typhoon. With the Trump administration currently looking very much in favor of defense cooperation with Riyadh, this could be an opportune moment for the F-35 to secure its first Arab customer in the Middle East.

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