Massing

China has deployed a massive naval and coast guard presence across East Asian waters, with more than 100 ships at the peak of activity, according to multiple sources and intelligence reports reviewed by Reuters. This represents the largest maritime show of force by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to date, surpassing last year’s December deployment that prompted Taiwan to raise its alert level.

The deployments cover a vast area: from the southern Yellow Sea through the East China Sea and South China Sea, extending into the western Pacific. While China has not officially announced any large-scale exercises, the current surge in activity coincides with the traditionally busy season for military drills.

The move comes amid diplomatic tensions with Japan, after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi warned last month that a hypothetical Chinese attack on Taiwan could prompt a Japanese military response. Beijing was also reportedly displeased by Taiwan’s $40 billion defence budget increase, announced by President Lai Ching-te.

Military Dynamics: A Massive Show of Force

Security sources indicate that as of Thursday morning, over 90 Chinese vessels remain active, down slightly from the peak of more than 100 earlier in the week. Chinese warships, supported by aircraft, have conducted mock attacks and access-denial operations, aimed at testing regional responses and simulating control over contested waters.

According to Taiwan’s National Security Bureau director-general Tsai Ming-yen, China currently operates four naval formations in the western Pacific. While Taiwan maintains real-time monitoring, authorities assert there is no immediate threat to national security, and the country continues collaborating with international partners to deter unilateral actions.

Officials familiar with the deployment said Beijing’s massing goes “far beyond national defense needs”, suggesting a strategic signal to regional capitals rather than an imminent operational threat.

Regional Response: Watching, But Cautious

• Japan: The Self-Defense Forces noted that while China is bolstering naval capabilities, there has not been a “sharp” surge in activity since mid-November. Officials are closely observing the developments for signs of escalation.
• Taiwan: Maintaining vigilance, Taiwan tracks Chinese formations and emphasizes its preparedness to safeguard national security.
• Other regional countries: Following the deployment, regional militaries and intelligence services are monitoring developments, though they currently assess the risk as contained.

Implications: Strategic Signaling in the Pacific

1. Regional deterrence: China’s large-scale naval movements appear intended to demonstrate power and test responses from Japan, Taiwan, and other regional actors.
2. Diplomatic leverage: By massing forces without formally naming drills, Beijing can pressure Tokyo and Taipei without overtly escalating conflict.
3. Risk management: While China asserts routine training, the unprecedented scale of deployment increases the risk of miscalculation, particularly if tensions with Taiwan or Japan intensify.
4. Capability demonstration: The PLA is enhancing its ability to operate in distant maritime and air spaces, signaling broader ambitions beyond its immediate periphery.

Personal Analysis: Beyond Routine Exercises

While some officials describe the deployment as “just routine exercises,” the timing, scale, and geographic spread suggest a clear strategic message: China is asserting maritime dominance while testing regional and international reactions.

Key takeaways:

• Beijing is signaling that Taiwan-related provocations or Japanese military commitments will be closely monitored and countered, at least in terms of presence.
• The lack of formal announcements or named drills reflects a deliberate ambiguity, providing China flexibility to scale activity up or down.
• The deployment underscores the growing complexity of East Asian security, where naval power and political signaling are increasingly intertwined.

In short, while no immediate conflict appears imminent, this is a significant escalation in maritime signaling, and regional actors will likely continue adapting their strategies to anticipate China’s next moves.

With information from Reuters.