M23

On Dec. 17, the M23/AFC rebels announced their withdrawal from Uvira, a city in the South Kivu Province of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC),  due to pressure from the United States. The rebel group has, however, failed to keep its promise to restore peace in Uvira, thereby worsening the security and humanitarian situation throughout South Kivu Province.

Fighting has since persisted between the M23 rebels and the Congolese armed forces, known as FARDC.

Amid shrinking funding, partly due to new American foreign policies, the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA) reports that armed groups are looting health and educational facilities in the troubled region.

“Since the announcement of the withdrawal by the M23 from the town of Uvira on Dec. 17, the security situation remains extremely precarious in the localities neighbouring and along the Uvira-Fizi highway. Armed violence continues, provoking continued displacements. Meanwhile, looting targeting notably educational and health structures has been reported, thus compromising access to health and education by thousands of persons. This persistent insecurity continues while the territories of Fizi and Uvira are already faced with increasing cases of cholera,” the UNOCHA office in DR Congo noted.

The UN agency, which is responsible for coordinating response to global humanitarian crises, natural disasters, and conflicts, added that a climate of unrest continues in these areas. Local humanitarian sources indicate that at least seven healthcare facilities in the Ruzizi health zone of Uvira territory and the Fizi health zone of Fizi territory have been looted and vandalised. Eight primary schools supported by the World Food Programme (WFP) have also been affected. This situation significantly limits access to medical care and disrupts children’s education.

The invasion of the Uvira town by M23/AFC rebels has elicited strong reactions from the international community, particularly aimed at Rwanda. The US declared on Dec. 13 that Rwanda has failed to uphold its commitments made under the Washington Accord, which was concluded between Congolese President Felix Tshisekedi and Rwandan President Paul Kagame, with the participation of various regional heads of state and representatives from the African Union.

Facing international pressure, the M23/AFC rebels declared their intention to withdraw from Uvira to aid the peace process. This statement was released in a communiqué signed by Corneille Nangaa, the political coordinator of the rebel movement. However, a few days later, the American representative to the UN Security Council reiterated the call for the rebels to retreat at least 75 kilometres from Uvira, which they have yet to do.

When Qatar helped secure a peace deal to end ongoing conflict between the M23 rebel group and Democratic Republic of the Congo’s (DRC) government last month, there was hope among many Congolese that a permanent ceasefire would soon emerge to end the fighting that has uprooted close to a million people in the country’s troubled east, and give war-racked communities some respite as the new year rolls in.

Since late 2021, the group, which the United States and the United Nations say is backed by Rwanda, has clashed with the Congolese army in heavy offensives that have killed at least 7,000 people this year alone. Several regional attempts at resolution have failed. Still, when M23 representatives and Congolese government officials met for negotiations in Doha and proceeded to sign a peace deal in November, exhausted Congolese dared to hope. This deal, some reckoned, could be different.

So when the rebels launched yet another offensive and temporarily seized the strategic city Uvira this month, hopes for lasting peace were painfully crushed, as some concluded that those at the helm of the talks were playing politics.

“It’s clear that they don’t have any will to end this conflict,” Congolese lawyer and political analyst Hubert Masomera told Al Jazeera from the M23-held eastern city of Goma, blaming both sides. “Despite the number of deaths and the extent of the destruction, there is still procrastination over the implementation of the peace agreements and compliance with the ceasefire. People here feel abandoned to their sad fate.”

Fears that the conflict will not only continue, but that it could soon take on a regional dimension, are deepening, too – a sensitive prospect in a DRC where two civil wars in the past were prompted by its neighbours.

Uvira, the newly captured city the rebels then withdrew from as a “trust-building measure” following US pressure last week, is a major transport and economic hub in the huge South Kivu province. It’s strategically located on the border with Rwanda and is just 30 kilometres from the Burundian capital, Bujumbura. The city was the last eastern stronghold of the Congolese army and its allies – local “Wazalendo” militias and about 3,000 Burundian soldiers. Early this year, M23 also seized control of South Kivu’s capital city, Bukavu, as well as Goma, the capital of North Kivu province.

Experts say M23’s advance on Uvira widens the group’s area of control significantly, puts it at the mouth of the mineral-rich Katanga region, and positions Rwandan proxies right at Burundi’s doorstep at a time when both governments are ramping up a war of words and accusing each other of backing rebels.

Rwanda, for its part, continues to distance itself from accusations that it backs M23.

DRC conflict’s complex history

The recent scenes in eastern DRC appear like an eerie playback of a tragic tale, conflict monitors say.

Similar peace negotiations in late 2024, led by the African Union and Angola, seemed ready to deliver peace ahead of a new year. But they collapsed after a highly anticipated meeting between the presidents of Rwanda and DRC was called off. Both sides accused each other of foiling the talks.

“There’s a sense of deja vu,” Nicodemus Minde, East Africa analyst at the Institute for Security Studies (ISS), said. “It’s symbolic because we were exactly here last year … the prospects for peace are dire.”

Conflict in the DRC has long been mired in a complex mix of ethnic grievances, poor governance and interference from its much smaller neighbours. It goes back to the 1994 genocide of Tutsis and moderate Hutus in Rwanda, which displaced millions into neighbouring eastern DRC, making them a minority there. Rwanda has since viewed the DRC as a hiding place for Hutu genocidaires, however, and its hot pursuit of them toppled a government in Kinshasa and led to the first and second Congo wars (1996-2003). The UN also accused the Rwandan and allied Ugandan forces of looting the DRC’s vast mineral wealth, including gold, coltan and tin, during the conflict.

Scores of militias emerged as governments armed and counter-armed civilians in the wars, many of which are still active in the DRC. The M23 itself is only the latest iteration of a Tutsi militia that fought in the Congo wars, and whose fighters integrated into the DRC army. In 2012, these fighters revolted, complaining of poor treatment by the Congolese forces. Now, the M23 claims to be fighting the marginalisation of ethnic Tutsis, some of whom say they are systematically denied citizenship, among other complaints. The M23 and its allied Congo River Alliance (AFC) have not stated goals of taking Kinshasa, even though members of the group have at times threatened to advance on the capital. Officially, the rebels claim to be “liberating” eastern DRC communities.

In 2012, M23 initially emerged with enough force to take the strategic city of Goma, but was forced back within a year by Congolese forces and a special UN intervention force of troops from South Africa, Tanzania and Malawi. When the M23 resurfaced in late 2021, though, it was with much more ferocity, boosted by about 4,000 Rwandan troops in addition to its own 6,000 fighters, according to the UN. Lightning and intensely bloody offensives have since seen it control vast swaths of territory, including the major cities of Goma, Bukavu – and now, Uvira.

On the map, M23 appears to be eking out a slice of Congolese territory wedged between the DRC and neighbouring Rwanda, Uganda and Burundi. If it gains control of the two Kivus in their entirety, it would lord over a resource-rich area five times Rwanda’s size with easy access to Kigali and Kampala.

“They are trying to create some sort of buffer zone which the neighbouring countries, particularly Rwanda but also Uganda, have an interest in controlling,” analyst Paul-Simon Handy, also of the ISS, told Al Jazeera.

Kigali officially denies backing M23, but justifies its actions based on accusations that the DRC supports a Hutu rebel group, the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR). The FDLR did exist for many years in the DRC, but it simply no longer poses a significant threat to Kigali, analyst Minde said.

Rwanda’s tensions with Burundi have similar historic correlations, as Hutus who perpetrated the 1994 genocide similarly fled there, and Kigali alleges the government continues to back rebels. In 2015, Burundi accused Rwanda of sponsoring an abortive coup in Bujumbura. Kigali denies this.

Does the US deal have a chance?

Several African countries have attempted to help solve the crisis, militarily and diplomatically, but all have failed. The regional bloc, the East African Community, of which the DRC is a part, deployed about 6,500 Kenyan-led peacekeepers to stabilise eastern DRC, as Kenyan diplomats developed a Nairobi Peace Process in 2022 that was meant to see several rebel groups agree to a truce. The agreement collapsed only a year later, however, after Congolese President Felix Tshisekedi grew frustrated over the force’s refusal to launch offensives against M23.

Then, the Southern African Development Community (SADC), of which the massive DRC is also a part, deployed troops from South Africa, Tanzania and Malawi in May 2023. There was hope that the trio, which proved crucial in driving back the first M23 insurrection, would again record success. They appeared no match for the new M23, though, and withdrew this June.

Meanwhile, the Angola-led Luanda Peace Process collapsed after President Joao Lourenco stepped back in March, citing frustration with both sides amid constant finger-pointing.

Qatar and the US stepped in to broker peace in June this year, using a unique two-pronged approach. The Doha peace talks, on the one hand, have focused on negotiations between the DRC and M23, while the Washington talks focus on the DRC and the Rwanda governments. Some experts warned that Washington’s motivation – aside from President Donald Trump’s fixation on being a global peacemaker figure – was a clause in the deal that guarantees US extraction of rare earth minerals from both countries. The agreement was unlikely to hold on that basis, rights groups said.

After a few no-shows and wobbles, the M23 finally agreed to the Doha framework on November 15. The agreement includes eight implementation protocols, including one on ceasefire monitoring and another on prisoner exchange. On December 4, President Trump sat next to a smiling Paul Kagame and Tshisekedi as all three signed the US-peace deal in Washington, which mandated both Rwanda and DRC to stop supporting armed groups. There were pockets of fighting as the signatures were penned, but all was supposed to be largely peaceful from then on.

What happened in Uvira barely a week after was the opposite. The Congolese government said at least 400 people were killed and 200,000 others displaced as M23 fighters pressed on the city. Thousands more were displaced into Burundi, which already homes some 200,000 Congolese refugees. Fleeing Uvira residents shared accounts of bombed villages, summary killings and widespread sexual violence by both sides, according to medical group Doctors Without Borders (MSF).

Is there hope for peace?

Even though M23 began withdrawing from Uvira on Thursday, analysts are still scrambling to understand what the group was hoping to achieve by taking the city, shattering the peace agreements and angering Washington.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio directly scolded Rwanda after Uvira’s capture, saying Kigali had violated the deal. Last week, Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau met with DRC Foreign Minister Therese Kayikwamba Wagner in Washington and promised that the US “is prepared to take action to enforce adherence” from Rwanda.

What that action looks like is unclear, but what’s certain, Minde said, was that the agreement seemed to favour Kigali more than Kinshasa.

“If you look at the agreement, the consequences [of either party breaching] were not forthright, and this points to the weakness of the deal,” he said, adding that there is much more at stake for DRC if there is a breach, including escalating conflict and mass displacement within the country. But that was not taken into account, the analyst explained.

Uvira’s fall, albeit on hold, is not only a blow to Trump’s peacemaker reputation but also sharpens tensions between Burundi and Rwanda, with analysts saying it could lead to direct clashes.

Bujumbura accuses Kigali of supporting the antigovernment Red Tabara rebels – a charge Rwanda and the rebels deny – and tensions between the two governments have led to border closures since last year. Last week, M23 announced that it captured hundreds of Burundian soldiers during the Uvira offensive.

Fears of a regional spillover also prompted the UN Security Council to extend the mandate of the MONUSCO peacekeeping mission for a year, ahead of its December 20 expiration. The 11,000 troop force has been in place since 1999, but has a complicated relationship with the DRC government, which says it has not done enough to protect civilians. MONUSCO forces initially began withdrawing in 2024, but then paused that move in July amid the escalating M23 offensive. Ituri, the force’s headquarters, is held by M23, meaning the troops are unable to do much.

Amid the chaos, the finger pointing, and the political games, it’s the Congolese people who are feeling the most despair at the turn of events so close to the new year, analysts say. After more than three decades of war that has turned the green, undulating hills of eastern DRC into a perpetual battlefield, Masameko in Goma said it’s locals, more than anyone else, with the most at stake.

“People have suffered enough and need to breathe, to sleep with the certainty that they will wake up tomorrow,” he said. “[They need] to live in their homes without fear of a bomb falling on them. That is all the people in this part of the republic need.”

The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) has condemned Rwanda for backing a rebel offensive in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo and urged it to withdraw its forces and stop supporting the M23 armed group.

The UNSC unanimously adopted the resolution on Friday, and also extended the UN peacekeeping mission in the DRC, known as MONUSCO, for a year. This came despite Rwanda’s repeated denials – contrary to overwhelming evidence – of involvement in a conflict that has intensified as a United States-brokered peace deal unravels.

The UNSC said M23’s seizure of the strategic city of Uvira “risks destabilizing the whole region, gravely endangers civilian populations and imperils ongoing peace efforts”.

“M23 must immediately withdraw at least 75km (47 miles) from Uvira and return to compliance with all of its obligations undertaken in the Framework Agreement,” said Jennifer Locetta, a US representative to the UN.

M23 captured Uvira in the South Kivu Province on December 10, less than a week after the DRC and Rwandan presidents met US President Donald Trump in Washington and committed to a peace agreement.

“It is an amazing day: great day for Africa, great day for the world and for these two countries. And they have so much to be proud of,” Trump crowed, as fighting quickly undermined the White House spectacle.

One Uvira resident, Feza Mariam, told Al Jazeera in recent days: “We don’t know anything about the political process they are talking about.

“The only thing we need is peace. Anyone able to provide us with peace is welcome here. For the rest, we as citizens, we don’t care about it.”

The M23 group claimed on Wednesday it was withdrawing from the city following international backlash, but the DRC government dismissed this as a “staged” pullback, saying M23 forces remain deployed there.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio acknowledged on Friday that commitments under the Washington accord were “not being met” but said his government had now signed agreements it could “hold people to”.

The US earlier warned it would use available tools against those undermining the peace deal, with US officials estimating between 5,000 and 7,000 Rwandan soldiers were operating in eastern DRC as of early December.

The US had previously sanctioned Rwandan cabinet ministers earlier this year, and the DRC later led calls to expand those sanctions after the seizure of Uvira.

The fighting has triggered a major humanitarian emergency, with more than 84,000 people fleeing into Burundi since early December, according to the UN refugee agency, which said the country has reached a “critical point” as refugees arrive exhausted and traumatised. They join approximately 200,000 others who had already sought refuge in the country.

Regional officials say more than 400 civilians have been killed in recent violence in the city.

The seizure of Uvira, located directly across Lake Tanganyika from Burundi’s largest city, Bujumbura, has raised fears of broader regional spillover. The city was the last major foothold in South Kivu for the DRC government and the Wazalendo, which are DRC-allied militias, after M23 captured the provincial capital, Bukavu, in February.

Rwanda has consistently denied backing M23, despite assessments by UN experts and the international community. In a February interview with CNN, Rwandan President Paul Kagame said he did not know whether his country’s troops were in the DRC, despite being commander-in-chief of the armed forces.

Rwanda implicitly acknowledged a presence in eastern DRC in February 2024, when it rejected a US call to withdraw troops and surface-to-air missile systems, saying it had adjusted its posture for self-defence.

Rwanda maintains that its security concerns are driven by the presence of the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda, a militia composed largely of Hutus who fled to the DRC after participating in the 1994 genocide that killed approximately 800,000 Tutsis and moderate Hutus.

Kigali views the group as an existential threat and accuses the DRC government of supporting it.

The broader conflict in the mineral-rich eastern DRC, where more than 100 armed groups operate, has displaced more than seven million people, creating one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises.

Human Rights Watch, an international non-governmental organisation,  has raised concerns over the dire humanitarian situation in the Democratic Republic of Congo, following the capture of Uvira town by M23/AFC rebels.

In a statement released on Monday, Dec. 15, Human Rights Watch reported that the offensive launched by M23/AFC, with support from Rwanda in Uvira and the surrounding areas, has resulted in a significant displacement of populations. It stated that access to humanitarian assistance has been severely diminished.

According to figures from the United Nations, approximately 200,000 people have fled the fighting, including over 30,000 who have crossed the border into Burundi. Congolese refugees arriving in Burundi have informed UN officials that they are receiving little to no humanitarian assistance. Human Rights Watch reports that local hospitals and health centres are overwhelmed amid a decline in humanitarian aid due to limited access and financial resources.

The organisation emphasises the suspension of food assistance in the province, stating that the UN World Food Programme has halted its support throughout South Kivu, worsening the living conditions of displaced populations still in areas affected by conflict. They are urging all forces present on the ground to ensure humanitarian access and the protection of civilians. In particular, they demand that the Rwandan authorities and the M23 guarantee access to essential items for the population’s survival, including water, food, and medicine.

Human Rights Watch states that the lack of progress in humanitarian aid, despite recent diplomatic efforts, is concerning.

“The Washington Accords dealing with the situation in the Eastern DR Congo have not permitted improved security nor better access to aid for the civilians near Uvira in South Kivu,” said Clementine de Montjoye, Human Rights Watch’s principal researcher for the Great Lakes region.

While humanitarian needs are rapidly increasing, Human Rights Watch exhorts its international partners to act quickly.

 “The situation faced by civilians in South Kivu is more and more perilous, and the humanitarian needs are considerable,”  the non-governmental organisation said, calling for an urgent reinforcement of assistance and the adequate protection of civilian populations.