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Hello! I’m Mark Olsen. Welcome to another edition of your regular field guide to a world of Only Good Movies.

Among the week’s new releases is “The Smashing Machine,” written and directed by Benny Safdie and starring Dwayne Johnson as Mark Kerr, an early mixed-martial-arts fighting champion who saw his career flame out before the sport became a lucrative cultural phenomenon.

Safdie is known for the movies he made with his brother Josh, such as “Good Time” and “Uncut Gems,” and more recently created the series “The Curse” with Nathan Fielder. Safdie won the directing prize at the Venice Film Festival for “The Smashing Machine,” his first solo feature.

Dwayne Johnson in the movie “The Smashing Machine.”

(A24)

In her review of the film, Amy Nicholson wrote about Safdie and Johnson, noting, “These two high-intensity talents, each with something to prove, seem to have egged each other on to be exhaustingly photorealistic. Johnson, squeezed into a wig so tight we get a vicarious headache, has pumped up his deltoids to nearly reach his prosthetic cauliflower ears. And Safdie is so devoted to duplicating the earthy brown decor of Kerr’s late-’90s nouveau riche Phoenix home that you’d think he was restoring Notre Dame.”

I spoke to Safdie earlier this week. He explained how he and Kerr held each other’s hands during the film’s emotional premiere screening at Venice and what it has meant for them to go through the process of seeing through the project together.

“I wanted him to feel some kind of ownership of the movie and his life. And it was very meaningful to me,” says Safdie of Kerr. “Now I hear him talk about it and it’s very interesting because he can say, ‘Oh, I see where I made mistakes in that relationship.’ And he can take ownership of them. And part of it is I wanted to make a movie about somebody’s perspective on life changing.”

A celebration of Jafar Panahi

A scene from the movie “It Was Just an Accident.”

(Neon)

The American Cinematheque is launching a tribute series to Iranian filmmaker Jafar Panahi this week. Winner of the Palme d’Or at this year’s Cannes Film Festival for the dramatic thriller “It Was Just an Accident,” Panahi has become Iran’s most high-profile dissident filmmaker, having been repeatedly jailed, placed under house arrest and officially banned from making films.

Yet none of that has stopped him. Panahi is now one of only four filmmakers ever to win the Palme d’Or, Berlin’s Golden Bear and Venice’s Golden Lion, alongside such giants as Michelangelo Antonioni, Robert Altman and Henri-Georges Clouzot. And “Accident” has been selected to be France’s entry for the international feature Oscar race.

Panahi was scheduled to appear at three events in Los Angeles next week as part of the tribute, but he may not make it. His appearances at the New York Film Festival (now in progress), including a scheduled talk with Martin Scorsese, had to be canceled due to a delay in Panahi receiving his visa to enter the country, reportedly a result of the federal government shutdown.

Even if Panahi does not make it to L.A., his films will play on and deserve to be seen. “Accident” will screen in a double-bill with 2003’s “Crimson Gold” at the Aero on Tuesday. On Wednesday, Panahi’s 1995 debut feature “The White Balloon,” co-written with Abbas Kiarostami, will play in 35mm at the Los Feliz 3. Later on Wednesday at the LF3, Panahi’s 2000 drama “The Circle” will screen in a 35mm print from the Yale Film Archive, along with the 2010 short “The Accordion.”

In 1996, Kenneth Turan had this to write about “The White Balloon”: “A completely charming, unhurried slice of life, it is both slow and sure-handed as it follows a small but fearsomely determined little girl on her amusing search for just the right ceremonial goldfish for her family’s new year’s celebration.”

Discussing “The Circle” in 2001, Turan said, “Restrained yet powerful, devastating in its emotional effects, ‘The Circle’ is a landmark in Iranian cinema. By combining two things that are relatively rare in that country’s production — unapologetically dramatic storytelling and an implicit challenge to the prevailing political ideology — this new film by producer-director Jafar Panahi creates a potent synthesis.”

With or without Panahi in attendance, these are deeply necessary films that speak to their respective moments — and all too much to our current one.

‘All the President’s Men’ and remembering Robert Redford

Robert Redford, right, and Dustin Hoffman in the movie “All the President’s Men.”

(Sunset Boulevard / Corbis via Getty Images)

Screenings have already begun to pop up in tribute to Robert Redford, who died recently at age 89. On Friday, Vidiots will screen Alan J. Pakula’s 1976 political thriller “All the President’s Men” in 35mm along with Phil Alden Robinson’s 1992 caper comedy “Sneakers.” On Sunday, Vidiots will also show Sydney Pollack’s 1973 romantic drama “The Way We Were.” (The Academy Museum will screen “The Way We Were” on Oct. 26.)

The American Cinematheque will also be a launching a Redford tribute series starting on Monday with a screening of Tony Scott’s 2001 thriller “Spy Game.” Other films currently scheduled include “Jeremiah Johnson,” “The Sting,” “Three Days of the Condor,” “Indecent Proposal,” “Sneakers” and a 35mm showing of “All the President’s Men.” That barely scratches the surface of Redford’s work as an actor, let alone as a director, so more events are likely to come.

Redford was deeply involved in bringing “All the President’s Men” to the screen as quickly as possible following the Watergate scandal. Writing about “All the President’s Men” in 1976, Charles Champlin said the film has “a clarity born of historical perspective but also a newly quickened feeling of national concern. The central drama and suspense of ‘All the President’s Men’ is a reminder of the narrow margin of our safety and how close the coverup came to working. … The film invites no comfort. It was a narrow and almost accidental escape and the weight of a corrupted government had been tilted against the truth as never before. But never again? The movie makes no preachment but you are bound to think anew that forgiveness and forgetfulness ought to be two starkly different commodities.”

Points of interest

‘Rosemary’s Baby’ in 35mm

Mia Farrow in the 1968 horror landmark “Rosemary’s Baby.”

(Criterion Collection)

“Rosemary’s Baby,” a 1968 adaptation of the novel by Ira Levin written and directed by Roman Polanski (and produced by exploitation impresario William Castle), is still considered one of the creepiest movies of all time. The film stars Mia Farrow as Rosemary Woodhouse, who has moved into a grand old apartment building in New York City with her actor husband, Guy (John Cassavetes). After she becomes pregnant, it begins to seem as if her nosy neighbors have been part of a coven of witches scheming to give birth to the son of Satan. Ruth Gordon won a supporting actress Oscar for her role as one of the neighbors. The movie plays in 35mm Tuesday through Thursday at the New Beverly.

Even back in 1968, the film touched off a nerve with reviewers, including our own. In his original June 1968 review, Champlin wrote, “Having paid my critical respects, I must then add that I found ‘Rosemary’s Baby’ a most desperately sick and obscene motion picture whose ultimate horror — in my very private opinion — was that it was made at all. It seems a singularly appropriate symbol of an age which, believing in nothing, will believe anything. … It is also all so sleazy and sick at heart. And the horror is that it presumes we are too indifferent to perceive what its horrors really are.”

‘The Discreet Charm of the Bourgeoisie’

An image from Luis Buñuel’s “The Discreet Charm of the Bourgeoisie.”

(Rialto Pictures)

Winner of the Oscar for international feature film and nominated for original screenplay, 1972’s “The Discreet Charm of the Bourgeoisie” was directed by Luis Buñuel, who wrote the script with Jean-Claude Carrière. Screening at the Academy Museum as part of a series dedicated to Buñuel, the film is a bold satire of societal conventions — one that still largely holds up, as a group of friends meets for a series of meals.

In a November 1972 review, Charles Champlin wrote, “Watching a Buñuel film is a special experience because he creats a special world, somewhere west of hard reality but dealing — mockingly — with social reality and always reflecting Buñuel’s almost puritanical rage at any misuse of power, fiscal, political, ecclesiastical, military, social. … The surrealist attack sometimes makes him sound more formidable that he is. In fact he’s a sly humanist who has here created one of his most easily enjoyable works.”

In other news

PTA, ranked

Joaquin Phoenix in the movie “Inherent Vice.”

(Wilson Webb / Warner Bros.)

Last week, we mentioned Paul Thomas Anderson’s “One Battle After Another,” which Amy Nicholson declared “fun and fizzy.” So this week, I set about the popular task of placing the new film within a ranking of Anderson’s 10 feature films, from his 1996 feature debut “Hard Eight” onward.

As I noted in the introduction, “More so than with other directors, it’s always tempting to overly psychologize Paul Thomas Anderson’s films, looking for traces of his personal development and hints of autobiography: the father figures of ‘Magnolia’ or ‘The Master,’ the partnership of ‘Phantom Thread,’ parenthood in the new ‘One Battle After Another.’ Yet two things truly set his work apart. There’s the incredibly high level of craft in each of them, giving each a unique feel, sensibility and visual identity, and also the deeply felt humanism: a pure love of people, for all their faults and foibles.

“Anderson is an 11-time Academy Award nominee without ever having won, a situation that could rectify itself soon enough, and it speaks to the extremely high bar set by his filmography that one could easily reverse the following list and still end up with a credible, if perhaps more idiosyncratic ranking. Reorder the films however you like — they are all, still, at the very least, extremely good. Simply put, there’s no one doing it like him.”

Would you have a different title at No. 1? Let us know in the comments.

Oct. 2 (UPI) — The United States is blacklisting 44 individuals and firms accused of being involved in Iran’s nuclear program and weapons procurement network, as the Trump administration continues to increase its so-called maximum pressure strategy on Tehran.

The sanctions were announced by the U.S. State and Treasury departments on Wednesday, days after the restoration of United Nations sanctions and other punitive measures on Iran.

Among sanctions announced Wednesday, the State Department hit five individuals and one entity connected to Iran’s Organization of Defensive Innovation and Research, the successor of Iran’s pre-2004 nuclear program and originally sanctioned by the administration of President Barack Obama in 2014.

Known by the initials SPND, the Tehran-based entity, founded in February 2011, is responsible for nuclear weapons development research.

The State Department said it blacklisted Reza Mozaffarinia, director of SPND, Ali Fuladvand, head of the Research Directorate at SPND, and Mohammad Reza Ghadir Zare Zaghalchi, longtime SPND-affiliated official and head of U.S.-designated Shahid Fakhar Moghaddam Group.

Andisheh Damavand International Technologies was also blacklisted for facilitating the travel of Iranian nuclear experts to Russia to pursue sensitive duel-use technologies as was its CEO, Ali Kalvand.

The sanctions comes after the State Department blacklisted three Iranian officials and one entity linked to SPND in May.

Coinciding with the State Department action was the Treasury designating 21 entities and 17 individuals accused of facilitating the acquisition of “sensitive goods and technology” for Iran’s Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces, it said.

“The Iranian regime’s support of terrorist proxies and its pursuit of nuclear weapons threatens the security of the Middle East, the United States and our allies around the world,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a statement.

Among those targeted Wednesday were individuals accused of being part of a network operating out of Iran, Germany, Turkey, Portugal and Uruguay that was procuring military aircraft equipment for Tehran, including U.S.-manufactured helicopters.

The Treasury said its sanctions were part of President Donald Trump‘s February memorandum reinstating the maximum pressure campaign of his first administration.

In 2018, Trump unilaterally pulled the United States from an Obama-era accord, which aimed to prevent Iran from securing a nuclear weapon. Calling the multinational joint Comprehension Plan of Action “defective at its core,” he then reinstated sanctions against Iran in hopes of coercing it back to the negotiation table on a new deal.

Instead, the reclusive regime advanced its nuclear program.

The United Nations last week reinstated sanctions under a so-called snapback mechanism that had been terminated when the JCPOA was implemented in 2016, and which Trump had sought to have reimpose since 2018.

The U.S. State Department said Wednesday’s sanctions were in support of those “snapback” punitive measures.

“The United States is committed to denying Iran all paths to a nuclear weapon,” Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in a statement.

“We will not hesitate to hold accountable anyone who supports Tehran’s proliferation activities.”

Sept. 28 (UPI) — A decade after they were lifted, economic and military sanctions were reimposed on Iran Sunday over its nuclear program.

Britain, France and Germany have accused Iran of “continued nuclear escalation,” and reactivated what is known as a “snapback mechanism” over Iran’s lack of cooperation to de-escalate the country’s nuclear program.

Iran suspended inspections of its nuclear facilities under terms of a 2015 deal after Israel and the United States bombed several of the country’s nuclear sites in June.

Iranian President Masound Pezeshkian has continued to maintain that his country has no intentions of developing nuclear weapons, and made the claim again last week.

Pezeshkian has called the reimposition of sanctions “unfair, unjust and illegal,” and a setback to Iran’s fledgling relations with the West.

The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action limits Iran’s nuclear facilities, stockpiles of enriched uranium and the amount of research it is allowed to undertake. It allows Iran to develop nuclear infrastructure, but not weapons.

Iran escalated its nuclear program after President Donald Trump pulled out of the JCPOA during his first term in 2018.

European negotiators told the U.N. Security Council in August that Iran had violated “the near entirety of its JCPOA commitments,” and gave the country a month’s warning to scale back its nuclear program before Russia assumed control of the Security Council in October.

Several meetings with Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi have produced no progress in meeting key European demands, including evidence that Iran is working on a diplomatic solution, complying with inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency and disclosing the whereabouts of more than 400 kg of highly enriched uranium.

The European nations have also called for resumed talks between Iran and the United States.

Germany says it’s possible to temporarily delay sanctions after E3’s top diplomats hold call with Iranian counterpart.

Germany says the “ball is still in Iran’s court” after the French, British and German foreign ministers held talks by phone with their Iranian counterpart, Abbas Araghchi, regarding Tehran’s nuclear programme.

Wednesday’s phone call came after the European powers last month triggered a 30-day deadline for “snapback” sanctions to come into force in the absence of a negotiated deal on the Iranian nuclear programme.

A German Federal Foreign Office spokesman told the AFP news agency on Wednesday that the offer from the so-called E3 powers “to discuss a temporary extension of the snapback if Iran fulfils certain conditions remains on the table” but added: “At this point, the steps taken by Iran have not been sufficient.”

Before the call, Tehran called for a “positive approach and goodwill” from the E3.

The E3 has been warning Tehran for weeks that United Nations sanctions could be reimposed by October when a 2015 nuclear agreement between Tehran and major powers expires.

A spokesman for Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has warned that renewing the sanctions would have consequences.

The E3 has accused Tehran of violating provisions of the 2015 nuclear pact, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The agreement, which all three countries signed, saw Iran agree to curb its nuclear programme in exchange for a lifting of international sanctions on its economy.

A component of the nuclear deal, the “snapback” mechanism, allows sanctions to be reimposed quickly if Iran is found to be in violation of the accord.

The call, which also included European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas, followed an agreement reached by Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) last week on resuming cooperation between Tehran and the UN nuclear watchdog, including in principle the inspection of nuclear sites. Iran’s Supreme National Security Council has backed renewed nuclear inspections.

Earlier in the week, Iran was pushing for a resolution prohibiting attacks on nuclear installations at the IAEA’s General Conference, which started on Monday in Vienna and ends on Friday.

According to Iran’s deputy nuclear chief, Behrouz Kamalvandi, who is in Vienna, the United States is putting pressure on member states to block the resolution and has “even threatened the agency that they will cut off assistance to the organisation”.

During a 12-day conflict in June, Israel and the US struck Iranian nuclear facilities, claiming Iran was getting too close to being able to produce a nuclear weapon, and IAEA inspections were interrupted over security concerns and complaints by Tehran.

Resumed cooperation between Iran and the IAEA is one of the three conditions set by European powers to hold off on completing the UN snapback mechanism, which they invoked in August.

“It is a natural expectation that Iran’s positive approach and goodwill should be reciprocated by the European side. … If some European parties start nagging this is not enough, that would mean they do not accept the IAEA,” Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said on Wednesday.

“We hope that with contacts like today’s and future ones, all parties will come to the conclusion that escalating tensions and perpetuating the current situation is not in anyone’s interest.”

Since US President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew from the Iranian nuclear deal in 2018 and reimposed sanctions, the Board of Governors of the IAEA has adopted four Western-backed censure resolutions against Iran, which maintains its nuclear programme is for peaceful civilian purposes.

Neither US intelligence nor the IAEA found earlier this year that Iran was pursuing an atomic weapon.

Sept. 15 (UPI) — Israel’s Ministry of Defense announced Monday the seizure of 187 cryptocurrency wallets that have received $1.5 billion. Israel says the wallets are linked to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, or IRGC, which has been designated as a terrorist group.

While $1.5 billion moved through the wallets over time, they currently hold $1.5 million, according to a document, detailing the seizure order and freezing the wallets from making any future transactions.

“Pursuant to my authority according to section 56b of the Anti-Terrorism Law 5776 — 2016 and having been convinced that the cryptocurrency wallets specified in the list are property of the designated terrorist organization Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, or property used for the perpetration of a severe terror crime as defined by the law, I hereby order the seizure of the property,” Israel Katz, minister of defense, wrote in the Administrative Seizure Order.

Israel, the European Union and the United States are among a number of countries that have sanctioned the IRGC as a terrorist organization. Blockchain monitoring firm Elliptic said it cannot confirm whether the wallets do belong to the IRGC.

“Some of the addresses may be controlled by cryptocurrency services and could be part of wallet infrastructure used to facilitate transactions for many customers,” Elliptic said in a blog post.

This is not the first time the IRGC has been linked to the use of cryptocurrency.

In June, more than $90 million was allegedly stolen from the Iranian crypto exchange Nobitex by a pro-Israel group. Elliptic has linked Nobitex to the IRGC.

Last December, the U.S. Treasury Department added cryptocurrency addresses, which had received $332 million, to its sanctions lists.

And on Friday, the U.S. Justice Department announced it had seized $584,741 from Iranian national Mohammad Abedini, who runs a navigation systems business used by IRGC’s military drone program.

“There were always rumors that IRGC was using cryptocurrency to circumvent sanctions,” said Amir Rashidi, director of digital rights and security at the Iran-focused nonprofit Miaan Group.

“Many of these cases might, for example, involve exchanges that are not directly part of the IRGC but are connected to it, similar to many banks, financial and credit institutions, or even companies that appear to be private.”

Iran rejects ‘Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity’ (TRIPP), says the presence of American companies in the region would be ‘worrying’.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian is visiting Armenia for talks on a planned corridor linking Azerbaijan near the border with his country, days after Iran said it would block the project included in a United States-brokered peace accord that puts a potential Washington presence on Iran’s doorstep.

The land corridor, dubbed the “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity” (TRIPP), is part of a deal signed earlier this month in Washington between former foes Armenia and Azerbaijan.

US President Donald Trump said the deal granted the US exclusive developmental rights to the transport corridor. Washington was also signing bilateral agreements with both countries to increase cooperation in areas like energy, trade and technology, including artificial intelligence.

Before departing for the Armenian capital Yerevan on Monday, Pezeshkian described the possible presence of American companies in the region as “worrying.”

“We will discuss it [with Armenian officials] and express our concerns,” he told state television.

The proposed route would connect Azerbaijan to its Nakhchivan exclave, passing near the Iranian border. Tehran has long opposed the planned transit route, also known as the Zangezur corridor, fearing it would cut the country off from Armenia and the rest of the Caucasus while bringing potentially hostile foreign forces close to its borders.

Since the deal was signed on August 8, Iranian officials have stepped up warnings to Armenia, saying the project could be part of a US ploy “to pursue hegemonic goals in the Caucasus region”.

On Sunday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi described it as a “sensitive” issue, saying Tehran’s main concern is that it could “lead to geopolitical changes in the region”.

“They [Armenian officials] have assured us that no American forces … or American security companies will be present in Armenia under the pretext of this route,” he told the official IRNA news agency.

The proposed corridor has been hailed as beneficial by other countries in the region including Russia, with which Iran has a strategic alliance alongside Armenia.

Ali Akbar Velayati, a top adviser to Iran’s supreme leader, said Tehran would block the initiative “with or without Russia”.

Trump “thinks the Caucasus is a piece of real estate he can lease for 99 years”, Velayati told state-affiliated Tasnim News soon after the deal was signed, adding that the area would become “a graveyard for Trump’s mercenaries”.

Moscow cautiously welcomed the deal, saying that it supported efforts to promote stability and prosperity in the region. Similarly to Iran, however, it warned against outside intervention, arguing that lasting solutions should be developed by countries in the region.

Armenia and Azerbaijan have fought a series of wars since the late 1980s when Nagorno-Karabakh, a region in Azerbaijan that had a mostly ethnic Armenian population at the time, broke away from Azerbaijan with support from Armenia. Azerbaijan Baku took control of the territory in a military operation in 2023, leading to an exodus of the ethnic Armenian population.

Armenia last year agreed to return several villages to Azerbaijan in what Baku described as a “long-awaited historic event”.

This week’s visit to Lebanon of senior Iranian politician Ali Larijani, secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, is seen as an attempt to smooth any feathers ruffled by rhetoric from Tehran about Hezbollah’s disarmament.

In early August, the Lebanese government, under pressure from the United States, announced that it would seek to disarm Hezbollah, long considered a principal ally of Tehran, by the end of the year.

The group reacted angrily to the call to disarm with its secretary-general, Naim Qassem, denouncing the idea on Friday and saying the Lebanese government “does not have the right to question the resistance’s legitimacy”.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in an interview last week: “We support any decision the group makes, but we do not intervene.”

“This is not the first time they’ve tried to strip Hezbollah of its weapons,” he said. “The reason is clear: The power of resistance has proven itself in the field.”

His comments were received angrily in Beirut. Foreign Minister Youssef Rajji – who is from the anti-Hezbollah, right-wing Lebanese Forces party – said Araghchi’s statement is “firmly rejected and condemned”.

“Such statements undermine Lebanon’s sovereignty, unity and stability and constitute an unacceptable interference in its internal matters and sovereign decisions,” Rajji said.

Hezbollah and Iran have emerged bruised from separate conflicts with Israel in November and June, respectively. Now, Beirut’s instruction for Hezbollah to disarm risks further undermining the relevance of the group at a critical time, analysts said.

Who decides?

Many analysts believe the decision on whether to retain or relinquish its arms may not be Hezbollah’s alone.

”Hezbollah does not have complete freedom of action in this regard,” HA Hellyer of the Royal United Services Institute told Al Jazeera, referencing the group’s close ties with Iran.

“But it doesn’t act simply as a proxy for Tehran and is in the midst of a rather challenging period of its existence, especially given the surrounding geopolitics of the region,” he said of the regional upheavals since Israel began its war on Gaza in October 2023 and launched subsequent assaults on Lebanon and Syria.

Those assaults inflicted significant damage on Lebanon, principally in the southern Beirut suburbs and southern Lebanon, where Hezbollah’s support base is located.

Lebanon was already locked into an economic crisis before Israel’s war, and the World Bank estimated in May that it would now need $11bn to rebuild. The central government would be responsible for distributing that money, giving it some influence over Hezbollah.

“Tehran will be very opposed to Hezbollah disarming,” Hellyer said. “But if Hezbollah decides it needs to, to preserve its political position, Tehran can’t veto.”

He also suggested that Tehran may see some of its allied groups in Iraq, which Larijani visited before Beirut, more favourably now, especially since the fall of Syria’s Bashar al-Assad in December severed its land supply routes to Lebanon.

“Hezbollah is, of course, very important to Iran, but I think the Iraqi militia groups are becoming more so, particularly after the loss of Assad,” Hellyer said.

A threat and a provocation

Hezbollah has long been considered the most powerful nonstate armed actor in the Middle East, a valuable ally for Iran and a nemesis for Israel.

“Hezbollah has always been a threat and a provocation, depending on where you’re standing,“ said Nicholas Blanford, a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and an authority on Hezbollah.

“It’s still both, though to a much lesser degree,” he added, noting the damage the group sustained from Israel’s attacks and the assassinations of its leadership in the build-up to and during Israel’s war on Lebanon in October and November.

“It’s clear that Iran wants Hezbollah to remain as it is and, as far as we can tell, is helping it reorganise its ranks.

“It’s also clear from their statements that Hezbollah has no intention of giving up its arms. Even relatively moderate figures within the group are comparing doing so to suicide.”

In his speech on Friday, Qassem’s rejection was unequivocal: “The resistance will not disarm so long as the aggression continues and the occupation persists.

“If necessary, we will fight a Karbala’i battle to confront this Israeli-American project, no matter the costs, and we are certain we will win,” he said, referencing the Battle of Karbala, venerated by Shia Muslims as a foundational battle against tyranny and oppression.

Qassem seemed to exclude the Lebanese military from his ire, warning the government: “Do not embroil the national army in this conflict. … It has a spotless record and does not want [this].”

Inside the tent

Larijani’s visit on Wednesday was seen as a potential opportunity for Beirut to open up new lines of communication with one of the region’s most significant actors, Tehran, and potentially determine what Iran might be willing to consider in return for Hezbollah’s future disarmament.

“It’s not possible for Lebanon to break relations between the Shia community and Iran, any more than it could the Sunni community and Saudi Arabia,” Michael Young of the Carnegie Middle East Center said.

“Iran is a major regional actor. It has a strong relationship with one of [the two] largest communities in the country,” he said of Lebanon’s large Shia community.

“You can’t cut ties. It doesn’t make sense. You want Iranians inside the tent, not outside.”

Given the precarity of Lebanon’s position, balanced between the US support it relies upon and the regional alliances it needs, Young suggested that Lebanese lawmakers nevertheless seek an opportunity to secure some sort of middle ground while accepting that some in Beirut may not be willing to countenance any negotiations with Iran.

“It’s important for the Lebanese to see if there are openings in the Iranian position,” Young continued, casting Larijani’s visit as a potential opportunity for the Lebanese government to influence Iran’s position on Hezbollah’s future.

“And this is something Larijani’s visit, if well exploited, could provide,” he said, “It’s important for the Lebanese to see if the Iranians propose anything in the future or if they show a willingness to compromise on behalf of Hezbollah.”

Tehran, Iran – Every morning at 6am, Sara reaches for her phone – not to check messages, but to see when the day’s blackout will begin.

The 44-year-old digital marketer in Tehran has memorised the weekly electricity schedule yet still checks her phone each morning for last-minute changes as she plans her life around the two-hour power cuts.

“Without electricity, there is no air conditioner to make the heat tolerable,” Sara says, describing how Iran’s convergent crises – water scarcity, power shortages and record-breaking temperatures – have fundamentally altered her daily routine.

The water service cuts are unannounced. They last hours at a time and truly unnerve Sara, so she scrambles to fill buckets whenever she can before the taps run dry.

Crisis

For millions of Iranians, this summer has brought survival challenges in light of record-breaking heat, according to data from Iran’s Meteorological Organization.

The country is simultaneously grappling with its fifth consecutive year of drought, chronic energy deficits and unprecedented heat, a perfect storm that is exposing the fragility of basic services.

The Meteorological Organization said rainfall is down 40 percent during the current water year, the 12-month rainfall-tracking period, which starts in autumn.

As of July 28, Iran had received only 137mm (5.4 inches) of precipitation compared with the long-term average of 228.2mm (9 inches).

The electricity shortage is rooted in both infrastructure limitations and fuel supply challenges that have caused production capacity to fall behind rapidly rising demand.

An October report from parliament’s Research Center showed 85 percent of Iran’s electricity comes from fossil fuels, 13 percent from hydropower and the remainder from renewables and nuclear power.

While Iran possesses vast gas and oil reserves, decades of sanctions and underinvestment in transmission networks and power plants mean the system can’t keep up with consumption.

Adding to these capacity constraints, fuel supply disruptions have forced some power stations to resort sometimes to using mazut (heavy fuel oil) instead of natural gas, but authorities try to restrict it due to air pollution concerns.

Summer droughts compound the crisis by reducing hydroelectric generation precisely when air conditioning demand peaks, leaving millions of Iranians planning their lives around predictable blackouts and unpredictable water outages.

Survival

Twenty-six-year-old Fatemeh moved to Tehran from Andisheh, a town 15km (9 miles) west of the capital, a year ago to pursue her education.

She rented her first apartment, an exciting milestone that became a daily exercise in crisis management.

Fatemeh’s first unannounced water cut saw her in a sweltering apartment with temperatures soaring to 40 degrees Celsius (104 degrees Fahrenheit).

“The first thing I did was to stop moving altogether so my body temperature wouldn’t rise,” she recalls.

With only two bottles of drinking water and a block of ice available, she carefully rationed her supplies although she used precious ice to cool her feet.

Showering and using the bathroom became challenges, she says, describing how she ordered expensive bottled water online and used two bottles just to shower.

Now, after months of unpredictable outages, Fatemeh has a survival routine: storing water in multiple containers, pouring it into her evaporative cooler when cuts occur and tossing blocks of ice into vents during extreme heat.

When both the water and electricity go, she says it “feels like having a fever” and she soaks towels in her stored water to press them against her body for relief.

The balcony offers no escape. The air outside remains hotter than indoors, even at night.

Ripple effect

The infrastructure crisis extends beyond household inconveniences and is threatening livelihoods across the economy as offices and retail shops are forced to close for hours or for the day.

The repeated shutdowns and the economic pinch they cause could lead to layoffs, affecting families who depend on these jobs.

Small businesses face particular challenges.

Pastry shop owners have shared videos of themselves throwing spoiled cakes away after refrigerators fail.

Remote work, promoted as a solution, becomes impossible when homes lack both electricity and internet connectivity.

Shahram, a 38-year-old software company manager, says he has to send his employees home sometimes.

“Power cuts usually occur between 12 and 5pm,” he says. “That coincides with peak work hours, … [so] if  the power cuts happen at 2, 3 or 4pm, I usually send everyone home because there’s no point. By the time power comes back, it is the end of their working day.”

Experts attribute the energy crisis to insufficient investment, failure to adopt new technologies – both of which are influenced by international sanctions – and unsustainable consumption.

Mohammad Arshadi, a water governance researcher and member of the Strategic Council of the Tadbir-E-Abe Iran think tank, agrees, saying Iran’s water crisis requires fundamental changes in consumption patterns.

While natural scarcity has been amplified by climate change, he says the main reason behind the current problem is how water is being used in Iran.

Expansion of water-intensive farming, large industries and urban sprawl have “fuelled the runaway growth of water demand”, he says.

Uncertainty

Back in her apartment, Sara continues checking her phone each morning, adjusting her schedule like millions of Iranians who have learned to navigate this new reality.

For Fatemeh, the psychological adjustment proves as challenging as the practical adaptations. Each morning brings new uncertainty about whether water will flow from her taps or electricity will power her laptop.

In a country where citizens once took infrastructure for granted, a generation is learning to live with scarcity.

As Iran approaches another winter with unresolved water and energy deficits, the experiences of Sara, Fatemeh, Shahram and millions like them suggest that the country’s infrastructure crisis has moved beyond temporary inconvenience to become a defining feature of modern Iranian life.

This story was published in collaboration with @Egab. 

Agreements, including those for the energy and trade sectors, have been signed during the two-day visit of the Iranian president.

Pakistan and Iran have signed agreements pledging to raise bilateral trade to $10bn and committing to work more closely to eliminate the menace of “terrorism” in favour of peace and prosperity in the region, as both nations have recently been embroiled in conflicts with their respective regional foes.

Sunday’s agreements across various sectors, including energy and trade, were signed during the two-day visit of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian.

“We have set a target of $10bn in trade and hope to achieve it as soon as possible,” Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said, addressing a joint press briefing.

Sharif reiterated Pakistan’s stance of supporting Iran’s right to a nuclear programme for peaceful purposes under the United Nations charter and condemned Israel’s aggression against Iran, saying there was “no justification” for the 12-day June conflict in which the United States militarily intervened on Israel’s behalf.

He said the two countries would take effective steps to eliminate “terrorism” and open the avenues of prosperity in the region. Pakistan and regional rival India were on the cusp of their fifth all-out war earlier this year before a ceasefire ended several days of heavy and deadly aerial exchanges.

The Iranian president said, “My deep belief is that we can easily, in a short time, increase the volume of our trade relations from the current $3bn to the projected goal of $10bn.”

He thanked the government and people supporting Iran “during the 12-day terrorist aggression by the Zionist regime and the United States”.

Analyst Ammar Habib Khan of the Institute of Business Administration told Al Jazeera that the informal trade between Iran and Pakistan is likely to increase more than the formal trade target shared by the countries.

“Discussions have been held on how to formalise the informal trade that is already happening, whether it is oil, gas or something else,” he told Al Jazeera from Karachi.

The analyst said Pakistan’s normalising relations with Iran might lead to the creation of a trade route between Pakistan and Europe.

“It would be an efficient and logistically sound route,” he said.

Along with a high-level delegation, including foreign and defence ministers, Pezeshkian arrived on a two-day visit to Pakistan on Saturday.

Tense ties

Pezeshkian called for better border management and cooperation around the mutual border to counter security threats.

In return, Sharif said that Islamabad and Tehran have a common stand against “terrorism”, and no such activity would be allowed in Pakistan or Iran.

“We have to protect our borders and take strict steps against terrorism to open the roads to peace and development in the region,” said Sharif.

Relations between Pakistan and Iran have often been shaky, especially over cross-border tensions that escalated in January 2024 when both sides launched tit-for-tat missile strikes.

Al Jazeera’s Kamal Hyder, reporting from Islamabad, said Pakistan and Iran have agreed to cooperate in order to ensure violence is prevented on either side.

“They agreed to have more border management between the two countries,” he said.

Hyder added that the sides also discussed Pakistan acting as an intermediary between Washington and Tehran, among other countries trying to ease tensions between archenemies.

Despite the strains, the two countries have kept the diplomatic door open.

In May, the Iranian foreign minister visited Pakistan amid rising tensions with India. During the Iran-Israel conflict, Pakistan supported Iran’s right to self-defence and condemned the US attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

The leaders of Pakistan and Iran also called for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza and an end to Israel’s attacks in the enclave.

The two sides also inked a string of memorandums of understanding in the fields of information technology, law and justice, climate change, and tourism.

For the past few years, governments across the world have paid close attention to conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. There, it is said, we see the first glimpses of what warfare of the future will look like, not just in terms of weaponry, but also in terms of new technologies and tactics.

Most recently, the United States-Israeli attacks on Iran demonstrated not just new strategies of drone deployment and infiltration but also new vulnerabilities. During the 12-day conflict, Iran and vessels in the waters of the Gulf experienced repeated disruptions of GPS signal.

This clearly worried the Iranian authorities who, after the end of the war, began to look for alternatives.

“At times, disruptions are created on this [GPS] system by internal systems, and this very issue has pushed us toward alternative options like BeiDou,” Ehsan Chitsaz, deputy communications minister, told Iranian media in mid-July. He added that the government was developing a plan to switch transportation, agriculture and the internet from GPS to BeiDou.

Iran’s decision to explore adopting China’s navigation satellite system may appear at first glance to be merely a tactical manoeuvre. Yet, its implications are far more profound. This move is yet another indication of a major global realignment.

For decades, the West, and the US in particular, have dominated the world’s technological infrastructure from computer operating systems and the internet to telecommunications and satellite networks.

This has left much of the world dependent on an infrastructure it cannot match or challenge. This dependency can easily become vulnerability. Since 2013, whistleblowers and media investigations have revealed how various Western technologies and schemes have enabled illicit surveillance and data gathering on a global scale – something that has worried governments around the world.

Iran’s possible shift to BeiDou sends a clear message to other nations grappling with the delicate balance between technological convenience and strategic self-defence: The era of blind, naive dependence on US-controlled infrastructure is rapidly coming to an end. Nations can no longer afford to have their military capabilities and vital digital sovereignty tied to the satellite grid of a superpower they cannot trust.

This sentiment is one of the driving forces behind the creation of national or regional satellite navigation systems, from Europe’s Galileo to Russia’s GLONASS, each vying for a share of the global positioning market and offering a perceived guarantee of sovereign control.

GPS was not the only vulnerability Iran encountered during the US-Israeli attacks. The Israeli army was able to assassinate a number of nuclear scientists and senior commanders in the Iranian security and military forces. The fact that Israel was able to obtain their exact locations raised fears that it was able to infiltrate telecommunications and trace people via their phones.

On June 17 as the conflict was still raging, the Iranian authorities urged the Iranian people to stop using the messaging app WhatsApp and delete it from their phones, saying it was gathering user information to send to Israel. Whether this appeal was linked to the assassinations of the senior officials is unclear, but Iranian mistrust of the app run by US-based corporation Meta is not without merit.

Cybersecurity experts have long been sceptical about the security of the app. Recently, media reports have revealed that the artificial intelligence software Israel uses to target Palestinians in Gaza is reportedly fed data from social media. Furthermore, shortly after the end of the attacks on Iran, the US House of Representatives moved to ban WhatsApp from official devices.

For Iran and other countries around the world, the implications are clear: Western platforms can no longer be trusted as mere conduits for communication; they are now seen as tools in a broader digital intelligence war.

Tehran has already been developing its own intranet system, the National Information Network, which gives more control over internet use to state authorities. Moving forward, Iran will likely expand this process and possibly try to emulate China’s Great Firewall.

By seeking to break with Western-dominated infrastructure, Tehran is definitively aligning itself with a growing sphere of influence that fundamentally challenges Western dominance. This partnership transcends simple transactional exchanges as China offers Iran tools essential for genuine digital and strategic independence.

The broader context for this is China’s colossal Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). While often framed as an infrastructure and trade project, BRI has always been about much more than roads and ports. It is an ambitious blueprint for building an alternative global order. Iran – strategically positioned and a key energy supplier – is becoming an increasingly important partner in this expansive vision.

What we are witnessing is the emergence of a new powerful tech bloc – one that inextricably unites digital infrastructure with a shared sense of political defiance. Countries weary of the West’s double standards, unilateral sanctions and overwhelming digital hegemony will increasingly find both comfort and significant leverage in Beijing’s expanding clout.

This accelerating shift heralds the dawn of a new “tech cold war”, a low-temperature confrontation in which nations will increasingly choose their critical infrastructure, from navigation and communications to data flows and financial payment systems, not primarily based on technological superiority or comprehensive global coverage but increasingly on political allegiance and perceived security.

As more and more countries follow suit, the Western technological advantage will begin to shrink in real time, resulting in redesigned international power dynamics.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.

Tehran, Iran – The wave of Afghan refugees and migrants being sent back from Iran has not stopped, with more than 410,000 being pushed out since the end of the 12-day war with Israel on June 24.

More than 1.5 million Afghan refugees and migrants have been sent back in 2025, according to the United Nations’ International Organization for Migration (IOM), while the Red Cross says more than one million people more could be sent back by the end of the year.

Iran has been hosting Afghans for decades. While it has periodically expelled irregular arrivals, it has now taken its efforts to unprecedented levels after the war with Israel that killed more than 1,000 people in Iran, many of them civilians.

Iran has also been building a wall along its massive eastern borders with Afghanistan and Pakistan to stem the flow of irregular migration, and smuggled drugs and fuel.

The parliament is also planning for a national migration organisation that would take over its efforts to crack down on irregular migration.

‘I’m afraid’

“I feel like we’re being singled out because we’re easy targets and don’t have many options,” said Ahmad*, a 27-year-old undocumented Afghan migrant who came to Iran four years ago.

Like others, he had to work construction and manual labour jobs before managing to get hired as the custodian of an old residential building in the western part of the capital, Tehran.

At the current rate of Iran’s heavily devalued currency, he gets paid the equivalent of about $80 a month, which is wired to the bank card of an Iranian citizen because he cannot have an account in his name.

He has a small spot where he can sleep in the building and tries to send money to his family in Afghanistan whenever possible.

“I don’t really leave the building that much because I’m afraid I’ll be sent back. I don’t know how much longer I can live like this,” he told Al Jazeera.

Vahid Golikani, who heads the foreign nationals’ department of the governor’s office in Tehran, told state media last week that undocumented migrants must not be employed to protect local labour.

Daily returns, which include expulsions and voluntary returns, climbed steeply after the start of the war, with average daily returns exceeding 29,600 in the week starting July 10, said Mai Sato, UN special rapporteur on the situation of human rights in Iran.

She was among four special rapporteurs who decried the mass returns on Thursday, adding their voice to rights organisations such as Amnesty International.

“Afghanistan remains unsafe under Taliban rule. These mass returns violate international law and put vulnerable people, especially women, children, and minorities, at severe risk of persecution and violence,” Sato said.

Alleged security risks

Authorities and state media have said undocumented immigrants may pose a security risk, alleging that some of them were paid by Israel to carry out tasks inside Iran.

While state television has aired confessions from a handful of unidentified imprisoned Afghans, but their numbers do not seem to match the scale of the expulsions.

The televised confessions featured men with covered eyes and blurred-out faces saying they had sent photographs and information online to anonymous handlers linked with Mossad.

Hundreds of Iranians have also been arrested on suspicion of working for Israel, and several Iranians have been executed over the past weeks as the government works to increase legal punishments for spying.

Mohammad Mannan Raeesi, a member of parliament from the ultraconservative city of Qom, said during a state television interview last week, “We don’t have a single migrant from Afghanistan among the Israeli spies.”

He pointed out that some Afghans have fought and died for Iran, and that attempts to expel irregular arrivals should avoid xenophobia.

Economic pressures

Before the latest wave of forced returns, Iranian authorities reported the official number of Afghan refugees and migrants at a whopping 6.1 million, with many speculating the real number was much higher.

Only about 780,000 have been given official refugee status by the government.

Supporting millions of refugees and migrants, regular and irregular, takes a toll on a government that spends billions annually on hidden subsidies on essentials like fuel, electricity and bread for everyone in the country.

Since 2021, there have been complaints among some Iranians about the economic impact of hosting millions who poured into Iran unchecked in the aftermath of the Taliban’s chaotic takeover of Afghanistan.

Amid increasing hostility towards the Afghan arrivals over the past years, local newspapers and social media have increasingly highlighted reports of crimes like theft and rape allegedly committed by Afghan migrants. However, no official statistics on such crimes have been released.

That has not stopped some Iranians, along with a large number of anonymous accounts online, from cheering on the mass returns, with popular hashtags in Farsi on X and other social media portraying the returns as a “national demand”.

Again, there are no reliable statistics or surveys that show what portion of the Iranian population backs the move, or under what conditions.

Some tearful migrants told Afghan media after being returned from Iran that security forces beat or humiliated them while putting them on buses to the border.

Others said they were abruptly deported with only the clothes on their back, and were unable to get their last paycheques, savings, or downpayments made for their rented homes.

Some of those with legal documentation have not been spared, as reports emerged in recent weeks of Afghan refugees and migrants being deported after having their documents shredded by police.

Government spokeswoman Fatemeh Mohajerani and Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni have separately said the government is only seeking undocumented migrants.

“In cases where legal residents have been deported, those instances have been investigated,” Momeni said last week, adding that over 70 percent of those returned came forward voluntarily after the government set a deadline to leave for early July.

‘I sense a lot of anger among the people’

For those Afghans who remain in Iran, a host of other restrictions make life difficult.

They are barred from entering dozens of Iranian cities. Their work permits may not be renewed every year, or the renewal fees could be hiked suddenly. They are unable to buy property, cars or even SIM cards for their mobile phones.

They are seldom given citizenship and face difficulties in getting their children into Iranian schools.

Zahra Aazim, a 22-year-old teacher and video editor of Afghan origin based in Tehran, said she did not truly feel the extent of the restrictions associated with living in Iran for Afghans until a few years ago.

Her family migrated to Iran about 45 years ago, shortly after Iran’s 1979 Islamic revolution that brought the incumbent theocratic establishment to power.

“What really bugs me is the fact that I was born in Iran, and my family has been living here for over four decades, but I’m still unable to get something as basic as a driver’s licence.

“That’s not to mention fundamental documents like a national ID card or an Iran-issued birth certificate,” she told Al Jazeera.

By law, those documents are reserved for Iranian nationals. Afghan-origin people can apply if their mother is Iranian or if they are a woman married to an Iranian man.

Aazim said Iran’s rules have only gotten stricter over the years. But things took a sharp turn after the war, and she has received hundreds of threatening or insulting messages online since.

“I’ve been hearing from other Afghan-origin friends in Iran … that this is no longer a place where we can live,” she said.

“A friend called me with the same message after the war. I thought she meant she’s thinking about moving to another country or going back to Afghanistan. I never thought her last resort would be [taking her own life].”

Aazim also said her 23-year-old brother was taken by police from a Tehran cafe – and later released – on suspicion of espionage.

The incident, along with videos of violence against Afghans that are circulating on social media, has made her feel unsafe.

“I sense a lot of anger among the Iranian people, even in some of my Iranian friends. When you can’t lash out against those in power above, you start to look for people at lower levels to blame,” she said.

“I’m not saying don’t take any action if you have security concerns about Afghan migrants … I just wish they would treat us respectfully.

“Respect has nothing to do with nationality, ethnicity or geography.”

*Name has been changed for the individual’s protection.

Iranian Minister of Foreign Affairs Abbas Araghchi has said that Tehran cannot give up on its uranium enrichment programme, which was severely damaged by waves of US and Israeli air strikes last month.

“It is now stopped because, yes, damages are serious and severe, but obviously, we cannot give up our enrichment because it is an achievement of our own scientists, and now, more than that, it is a question of national pride,” Araghchi told the US broadcaster Fox News in an interview aired on Monday.

Araghchi said at the beginning of the interview that Iran is “open to talks” with the United States, but that they would not be direct talks “for the time being”.

“If they [the US] are coming for a win-win solution, I am ready to engage with them,” he said.

“We are ready to do any confidence-building measure needed to prove that Iran’s nuclear programme is peaceful and would remain peaceful forever, and Iran would never go for nuclear weapons, and in return, we expect them to lift their sanctions,” the foreign minister added.

“So, my message to the United States is that let’s go for a negotiated solution for Iran’s nuclear programme.”

Araghchi’s comments were part of a 16-minute interview aired on Fox News, a broadcaster known to be closely watched by US President Donald Trump.

“There is a negotiated solution for our nuclear programme. We have done it once in the past. We are ready to do it once again,” Araghchi said.

Tehran and Washington had been holding talks on the nuclear programme earlier this year, seven years after Trump pulled the US out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which Tehran signed with several world powers in 2015. Under the pact, Iran opened the country’s nuclear sites to comprehensive international inspection in return for the lifting of sanctions.

Trump’s decision to pull the US out of the deal came after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu accused Iran of pursuing a “secret nuclear programme“.

Iran has long maintained that its nuclear enrichment programme is strictly for civilian purposes.

The US and Iran engaged in talks as recently as May to reach a new deal, but those negotiations broke down when Israel launched surprise bombing raids across Iran on June 13, targeting military and nuclear sites.

More than 900 people were killed in Iran, and at least 28 people were killed in Israel before a ceasefire took hold on June 24.

The US also joined Israel in attacking Iranian nuclear facilities, with the Pentagon later claiming it had set back the country’s nuclear programme by one to two years.

Araghchi said on Monday that Iran’s Atomic Energy Organisation is still evaluating how the attacks had affected Iran’s enriched material, adding that they will “soon inform” the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) of its findings.

He said any request for the IAEA to send inspectors would be “carefully considered”.

“We have not stopped our cooperation with the agency,” he claimed.

IAEA inspectors left Iran after Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed a law suspending cooperation with the IAEA earlier this month.

Tehran had sharply criticised the IAEA and its chief, Rafael Grossi, over a June 12 resolution passed by the IAEA board accusing Tehran of non-compliance with its nuclear obligations.

Iranian officials said the resolution was among the “excuses” that Israel used as a pretext to launch its attacks, which began on June 13 and lasted for 12 days.

Speaking to journalists earlier on Monday, Stephane Dujarric, the spokesperson for the United Nations secretary-general, said that the UN welcomed renewed “dialogue between the Europeans and the Iranians”, referring to talks set to take place between Iran, France, Germany and the United Kingdom in Turkiye on Friday.

The three European parties to the former JCPOA agreement have said that Tehran’s failure to resume negotiations would lead to international sanctions being reimposed on Iran.

If we are going to make an overview of what is going on now through the lens of the so-called dangerous opportunity, we can list some challenges and opportunities that Iran and China both face through this tension. I will try to name challenges and opportunities.

Challenges

The first challenge is that the United States of America is in a big competition and rivalry against China, which is the main actor trying to compete against the Western order. The US tries to create a “burned land” within the Middle East by using the major strategy of balkanization. In this strategy, the United States attempts to create a weak, failed, chaotic space for China throughout the region to actually block any attempts to initiate the Belt and Road Initiative and land corridors from China to the western part of the world. You can see a clear idea of balkanization throughout the region, and of course, we can see this example in Syria. The main role that Israel and the United States try to duplicate in different parts of the region may be seen in Yemen, Iraq, and even Afghanistan. The challenge is that we will have a burnt land in the Middle East that actually makes it impossible to follow initiatives like the Belt and Road.

The second challenge could be an energy crisis in the Middle East. We know that China tries its best to mediate between Saudi Arabia and Iran to secure regional security and stability, and of course, energy stability within the Middle East and at the global scale. This crisis and tension, which Israel initiated through unprovoked actions, could lead to a worldwide energy crisis because Iran and Tehran have mentioned multiple times that there are different options available for Iran to affect the whole region if there is more tension or further attacks from any foreign actors, especially the United States or Israel.

The third challenge we can name is the corridor blockade or dead-end. We can name different initiatives and corridors made and created by the United States, such as I2U2, Quad, AUKUS, and of course IMEC, as initiatives to create a kind of blockade for China through maritime corridors. If the United States and Israel follow through with their goals in the current tension, there would be a kind of corridor blockade from the East to the West.

Another challenge we can name is about the Abraham Accords. China and Beijing should understand that this kind of alliance is not really just about Palestine or normalization with the Zionist regime; it is a big alliance and outsourcing of the regional order from Washington to Tel Aviv. In this regional order, which is totally supported and facilitated by Washington, the Middle East—or better said, Southwest Asia—would be a total ally of the United States. This could strongly affect the national interests of Beijing.

Last but not least, a challenge after the current tension between Iran and Israel is the possibility of initiating the next big conflict. Currently, we have two big open wounds from previous years: the Ukraine crisis and Palestine. The result and balance of power around these two hot zones will create a balance of power around a third hot zone, which is Taiwan. Therefore, the outcomes of Ukraine and Palestine will directly affect the Taiwan situation in the upcoming months and years.

Opportunities

The Chinese letter for crisis shows us that there is an opportunity in this kind of crisis. If we can name them:

The first opportunity is that supporting policy, especially for the nations of the region and the Global South, is simply being on the right side of history. Every actor who supports Palestine gains favorability within nations, especially in the Global South. As you can see, Iran has gained much soft power within the current tension with Israel in the region. This is a real comeback from the Arab Spring for Iran’s image in the eyes of the Middle Eastern people. Actually, China may understand that in the region there is a deep real desire to resist Israel. Every actor who stands against the operations of Israel will gain and has gained much favorability in the region and even the world. This is the big, big side of the resistance idea.

The second opportunity during this kind of conflict is that Iran can show and test its military capability against the Western alliances. It is not a clear and accurate vision if you consider the current situation and tension as a simple war between Tehran and Tel Aviv. Tehran, in the current 12-day war, stands and fights against Washington, the whole NATO, and some regional actors. Iran has not only avoided defeat in this situation but also tried to push the whole Israel and Western alliances to a ceasefire point.

The third opportunity is the chance and moment for almost all old actors in the region to shift their ideas towards a strong region without the US. It seems that even countries like Saudi Arabia and other regional states are thinking about a region without the presence of the United States. The good news is that if Iran and its allies can play a good role during the conflict and upcoming tension, there could be a regional order emerging from the regional actors, and there would be no vacuum of power.

The next opportunity I want to mention, after the experience of this war, is really important for Beijing nowadays and the current situation of the international order. China could not find any other strategy or reliable partner within the region with the capability of military, social soft power, enormous energy resources, and favorable geography other than Iran.

Conclusion

It seems that the fundamental strategy of the United States during the Trump administration for the Middle East, called “peace through strength,” is just a choice between two options: surrender or war. Surrender would mean a regional order controlled by Tel Aviv. Iran, as it seems, is trying to prepare itself for full-scale war. As mentioned in the early stage of this note, during the tension, this is a period of rebalancing of actors’ powers. Therefore, the ability and will of order-writers like China to play a role in this conflict will determine the upcoming role of this actor in the new world order.

Washington, DC – New media reports in the United States, citing intelligence assessments, have cast doubt over President Donald Trump’s assertion that Washington’s military strikes last month “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear programme.

The Washington Post and NBC News reported that US officials were saying that only one of the three Iranian nuclear sites – the Fordow facility – targeted by the US has been destroyed.

The Post’s report, released on Friday, also raised questions on whether the centrifuges used to enrich uranium at the deepest level of Fordow were destroyed or moved before the attack.

“We definitely can’t say it was obliterated,” an unidentified official told the newspaper, referring to Iran’s nuclear programme.

Trump has insisted that the US strikes were a “spectacular” success, lashing out at any reports questioning the level of damage they inflicted on Iran’s nuclear programme.

An initial US intelligence assessment, leaked to several media outlets after the attack last month, said the strikes failed to destroy key components of Iran’s nuclear programme and only delayed its work by months.

But the Pentagon said earlier in July that the attacks degraded the Iranian programme by one to two years.

While the strikes on Fordow – initially thought to be the most guarded facility, buried inside a mountain – initially took centre stage, the NBC News and Washington Post reports suggested that the facilities in Natanz and Isfahan also had deep tunnels.

‘Impenetrable’

The US military did not use enormous bunker-busting bombs against the Isfahan site and targeted surface infrastructure instead.

A congressional aide familiar with intelligence briefings told the Post that the Pentagon had assessed that the underground facilities at Isfahan were “pretty much impenetrable”.

The Pentagon responded to both reports by reiterating that all three sites were “completely and totally obliterated”.

Israel, which started the war by attacking Iran without direct provocation last month, has backed the US administration’s assessment, while threatening further strikes against Tehran if it resumes its nuclear programme.

For its part, Tehran has not provided details about the state of its nuclear sites.

Some Iranian officials have said that the facilities sustained significant damage from US and Israeli attacks. But Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said after the war that Trump had “exaggerated” the impact of the strikes.

The location and state of Iran’s highly enriched uranium also remain unknown.

Iran’s nuclear agency and regulators in neighbouring states have said they did not detect a spike in radioactivity after the bombings, suggesting the strikes did not result in uranium contamination.

But Rafael Grossi, the head of the United Nations nuclear watchdog, the IAEA, did not rule out that the uranium containers may have been damaged in the attacks.

“We don’t know where this material could be or if part of it could have been under the attack during those 12 days,” Grossi told CBS News last month.

According to Grossi, Iran could resume uranium enrichment in a “matter of months”.

The war

Israel launched a massive attack against Iran on June 13, killing several top military officials, as well as nuclear scientists.

The bombing campaign targeted military sites, civilian infrastructure and residential buildings across the country, killing hundreds of civilians.

Iran responded with barrages of missiles against Israel that left widespread destruction and claimed the lives of at least 29 people.

The US joined the Israeli campaign on June 22, striking the three nuclear sites. Iran retaliated with a missile attack against an air base housing US troops in Qatar.

Initially, Trump said the Iranian attack was thwarted, but after satellite images showed damage at the base, the Pentagon acknowledged that one of the missiles was not intercepted.

“One Iranian ballistic missile impacted Al Udeid Air Base June 23 while the remainder of the missiles were intercepted by US and Qatari air defence systems,” Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell told Al Jazeera in an email last week.

“The impact did minimal damage to equipment and structures on the base. There were no injuries.”

After a ceasefire was reached to end the 12-day war, both the US and Iran expressed willingness to engage in diplomacy to resolve the nuclear file. But talks have not materialised.

Iran and the US were periodically holding nuclear talks before Israel launched its war in June.

EU-Iran talks

During his first term in 2018, Trump withdrew the US from the 2015 multilateral nuclear agreement, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

The agreement saw Iran scale back its nuclear programme in exchange for lifting international sanctions against its economy.

In recent days, European officials have suggested that they could impose “snap-back” sanctions against Iran as part of the deal that has long been violated by the US.

Tehran, which started enriching uranium beyond the limits set by the JCPOA after the US withdrawal, insists that Washington was the party that nixed the agreement, stressing that the deal acknowledges Iran’s enrichment rights.

I had a joint teleconference with E3 FMs & EU HR last night, in which I made the following points clear:

It was the US that withdrew from a two-year negotiated deal -coordinated by EU in 2015- not Iran; and it was US that left the negotiation table in June this year and chose a… pic.twitter.com/NFQdK2HZD4

— Seyed Abbas Araghchi (@araghchi) July 18, 2025

On Friday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said he held talks with the top diplomats of France, the United Kingdom and Germany – known as the E3 – as well as the European Union’s high representative.

Araghchi said Europeans should put aside “worn-out policies of threat and pressure”.

“It was the US that withdrew from a two-year negotiated deal – coordinated by EU in 2015 – not Iran; and it was US that left the negotiation table in June this year and chose a military option instead, not Iran,” the Iranian foreign minister said in a social media post.

“Any new round of talks is only possible when the other side is ready for a fair, balanced, and mutually beneficial nuclear deal.”

Tehran denies seeking a nuclear bomb. Israel, meanwhile, is widely believed to have an undeclared nuclear arsenal.

Initial investigation indicates blast caused by a gas leak, but similar recent incidents have led to suspicions of drone attacks.

At least seven people have been injured in an explosion at a residential building on the outskirts of the Iranian city of Qom, according to several Iranian news outlets.

At least five emergency vehicles were dispatched after Monday’s blast to the Nasim Pardisan residential complex to attend to the injured, Iran’s Student News Network (SNN) reported, quoting Dr Mohammad Javad Bagheri, head of Qom’s Emergency Services.

The state-affiliated Fars News Agency said the explosion happened at one of the buildings in the complex and damaged four residential units.

The explosion shattered windows of neighbouring buildings, and firefighting and police forces were deployed to the site, according to Fars.

Images and videos posted on social media showed several damaged vehicles next to the building.

انفجار در یکی از مجتمع‌های مسکونی پردیسان قم ۷ مصدوم برجا گذاشت.
به گفته اورژانس و آتش‌نشانی، حادثه صبح دوشنبه رخ داده و علت احتمالی آن نشت گاز بوده است.
🔗https://t.co/pg6uSrkMbW pic.twitter.com/Z8XP3ZbosU

— خبرگزاری مهر (@mehrnews_ir) July 14, 2025

Translation: An explosion in one of the residential complexes in Qom’s Pardisan left seven people injured.

According to the emergency services and fire department, the incident occurred on Monday morning and the probable cause was a gas leak.

Preliminary investigations indicated a gas leak may have caused the incident, but a detailed probe is being carried out to ascertain the source of the blast, Fars reported.

In recent days, some accounts on social media have linked such incidents across the country to last month’s Israeli war against Iran.

Fars quoted an unnamed official as saying people “should not worry about this narrative-building”, adding that if any hostile acts were to occur, “news of it would immediately be announced to the public.”

Similar explosions have been recorded across Iran since the June 24 ceasefire, which led to speculation that Israeli drone strikes launched from inside Iran might be responsible for the incidents. But authorities have rejected such speculation.

The latest incident came four days after an explosion occurred at a residential building in western Tehran’s Chitgar suburb, which was extensively bombed during the 12-day war. Many high-rise buildings in that district were built by Iran’s armed forces.

Authorities said the Chitgar explosion, which injured at least seven people, was also caused by a gas leak.

The next day, Iranian media reported the death of Ali Taeb, a senior Muslim scholar and veteran of the eight-year Iran-Iraq War of the 1980s. No cause of death was provided, and officials have not commented.

Taeb was a former representative of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei at the Sarallah Headquarters, the heart of the domestic security structure of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and a frequent target of Israeli attacks during the 12-day war.

He was also brother to Hossein Taeb and Mehdi Taeb, two senior figures within Iran’s theocratic establishment and the IRGC.

Several other explosions were also reported, including in the Janat Abad district of Tehran and another in western Iran’s Kermanshah.

Tehran’s top diplomat Abbas Araghchi visits Saudi Arabia for the first time after Iran’s 12-day war with Israel.

Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) has met Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Jeddah in the first visit by a top Iranian official to the Gulf kingdom after Israel’s war with Tehran.

Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said Araghchi’s talks with Prince Mohammed and other Saudi officials on Tuesday were “fruitful”.

The visit after the 12-day intense conflict between Israel and Iran, which saw the United States bomb three Iranian nuclear facilities before mediating a ceasefire, suggests that the war did not derail the rapprochement between Tehran and Riyadh.

Saudi Arabia’s official news agency, SPA, said Araghchi and Prince Mohammed “reviewed bilateral relations and discussed the latest regional developments and the efforts being made in that regard”.

“The Crown Prince expressed the Kingdom’s aspiration that the ceasefire agreement would contribute to creating conditions that promote security and stability in the region, emphasizing the Kingdom’s stance in supporting dialogue through diplomatic means as a path to resolving disputes,” SPA said.

It added that Araghchi expressed his gratitude to the kingdom for “condemning the Israeli aggression”.

The top Iranian diplomat also met with Saudi Minister of Defence Khalid bin Salman bin Abdulaziz and Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud.

Israel launched a massive bombardment against Iran on June 13, without direct provocation, killing top military commanders and nuclear scientists as well as hundreds of civilians.

Iran retaliated with missile barrages that left widespread destruction in Israel.

After the US targeted Iran’s nuclear sites, Tehran responded with a missile launch against a US airbase in Qatar. Shortly after that attack, US President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire between Iran and Israel.

While Arab countries condemned the attack as a violation of Qatar’s sovereignty, Iran appears to be pushing to repair relations with Gulf states.

Ties between Tehran and Riyadh were strained for years over disagreements around regional conflicts and mutual accusations of spreading instability.

But the two countries agreed to restore formal relations as part of a deal brokered by China in 2023, and top Saudi and Iranian officials have been in regular contact.

Before the outbreak of the recent war, Saudi Arabia had welcomed Iran’s nuclear talks with the US, saying it supported efforts to resolve regional and international disputes.

On Monday, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said he believed Tehran could resolve its differences with the US through dialogue, but trust would be an issue after the attacks on his country.

In an article published by the Financial Times earlier on Tuesday, Araghchi accused Israel of preferring conflict over diplomacy.

“Iran remains interested in diplomacy, but we have good reason to have doubts about further dialogue,” he wrote. “If there is a desire to resolve this amicably, the US should show genuine readiness for an equitable accord.”

Israel attacked Iran just days before Tehran and Washington were to meet for a new round of nuclear talks.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has said he believes Tehran can resolve its differences with the United States through dialogue, but trust would be an issue after US and Israeli attacks on his country.

“I am of the belief that we could very much easily resolve our differences and conflicts with the United States through dialogue and talks,” Pezeshkian told US right-wing podcaster Tucker Carlson in an interview conducted on Saturday and released on Monday.

His remarks came less than a month after Israel launched its unprecedented June 13 bombing campaign against Iran, killing top military commanders and nuclear scientists.

The Israeli attacks took place two days before Tehran and Washington were set to meet for a new round of nuclear talks, stalling negotiations that were aimed at reaching a deal over Iran’s atomic programme.

A week later, in separate attacks on June 21, the US also bombed three Iranian nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan.

Iranian state media said on Monday that the death toll from the 12-day war had risen to at least 1,060.

Pezeshkian blamed Israel, Iran’s archenemy, for the collapse of talks with the US.

“How are we going to trust the United States again?” he asked.

“How can we know for sure that in the middle of the talks, the Israeli regime will not be given the permission again to attack us?”

Iran’s president also accused Israel of attempting to assassinate him during the June attacks.

“They did try, yes. They acted accordingly, but they failed,” Pezeshkian told Carlson in response to a question on whether he believed Israel had tried to kill him.

“It was not the United States that was behind the attempt on my life. It was Israel. I was in a meeting … they tried to bombard the area in which we were holding that meeting,” he said, according to a translation of his remarks from Persian into English.

On June 16, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also did not rule out plans to assassinate Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, saying it would “end the conflict” after reports emerged at the time that US President Donald Trump had vetoed the move.

While a ceasefire between Iran and Israel has been in place since June 24, during the interview with Carlson, Pezeshkian accused Netanyahu of pursuing his “own agenda” of “forever wars” in the Middle East and urged Trump not to be drawn into war with Iran by the Israeli leader.

Netanyahu is visiting Washington on Monday for talks at the White House.

“The United States’ president, Mr. Trump, he is capable enough to guide the region towards peace and a brighter future and put Israel in its place. Or get into a pit, an endless pit, or a swamp,” Pezeshkian said.

“So it is up to the United States president to choose which path.”

Trump said he expected to discuss Iran and its nuclear ambitions with Netanyahu, praising the US strikes on Iranian nuclear sites as a tremendous success.

On Friday, he told reporters that he believed Tehran’s nuclear programme had been set back permanently, although Iran could restart efforts elsewhere.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei attended a mourning ceremony on the eve of the Muslim holy day of Ashura.

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has attended a religious ceremony in Tehran, making his first public appearance since the 12 days of conflict between Israel and Iran.

The 85-year-old leader appeared in a video aired by state media on Saturday, which showed dozens of people attending an event at a mosque to mark Ashura, the holiest day of the Shia Muslim calendar.

In the footage, Khamenei is seen waving and nodding to the chanting crowd, which rose to its feet as he entered the mosque.

State TV said the clip was filmed at the Imam Khomeini Mosque in central Tehran.

Khamenei has avoided public appearances since the start of the fighting on June 13, and his speeches have all been prerecorded.

The United States, which joined in the Israeli attacks by bombing three key nuclear sites in Iran on June 22, had sent warnings to Khamenei, with US President Donald Trump saying on social media that Washington knew where the Iranian leader was, but had no plans to kill him, “at least for now”.

On June 26, in prerecorded remarks aired on state television, Khamenei rejected Trump’s calls for Iran’s surrender, and said Tehran had delivered a “slap to America’s face” by striking a US airbase in Qatar

Trump replied, in remarks to reporters and on social media: “Look, you’re a man of great faith. A man who’s highly respected in his country. You have to tell the truth. You got beat to hell.”

Iran has acknowledged that more than 900 people were killed in the war, as well as thousands injured. Iran’s retaliatory missile attacks on Israel killed at least 28 people there.

The ceasefire between the two countries took hold on June 24.

Since then, Iran has confirmed serious damage to its nuclear facilities, and denied access to them for inspectors from the United Nations’s nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

The IAEA’s inspectors had stayed in the Iranian capital throughout the fighting, even as Israel attacked Iranian military sites and killed several of the country’s most senior commanders and top scientists, as well as hundreds of civilians.

However, they left after Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed a law suspending cooperation with the IAEA on Wednesday.

IAEA Director-General Rafael Grossi on Friday stressed “the crucial importance” of dialogue with Iran to resume monitoring and verification work of its nuclear programme as soon as possible.

Iran was holding talks with the US on its nuclear programme when Israel launched its attacks. The US has been seeking a new agreement after Trump pulled the US out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which Tehran signed with world powers in 2015.

Iranian Minister of Foreign Affairs Abbas Araghchi separately said on Thursday that the country remains committed to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), dismissing speculation that Iran would leave the international accord.

UN inspectors have left Iran after Tehran cut ties with the International Atomic Energy Agency.

This means inspectors will no longer be able to monitor the country’s nuclear activities.

That’s led to many people questioning the future of Iran’s nuclear programme, and fearing another round of tensions.

Israel launched its attacks on Iran last month, claiming Tehran was weeks from producing a nuclear weapon.

The United States backed its ally, striking key Iranian nuclear facilities.

But Tehran has struck a defiant note – suspending co-operation with the UN’s nuclear watchdog.

So what does all this mean, and what might the future hold?

Presenter: Adrian Finighan

Guests:

Abas Aslani – Senior research fellow at the Center for Middle East Strategic Studies

Tariq Rauf – Former head of verification and security policy at the International Atomic Energy Agency

Harlan Ullman – Senior adviser at the Atlantic Council and chairman of the Killowen Group

Hours before a ceasefire took effect between Israel and Iran on June 24, the son of Iran’s last shah, Reza Pahlavi, held a televised news conference in the French capital, Paris.

Dressed in a grey suit and blue tie with his hair combed back, the 64-year-old exiled (and self-styled) crown prince of the monarchy that Iranians overthrew in 1979 urged the United States not to give Iran’s government a “lifeline” by restarting diplomatic talks on its nuclear programme.

Pahlavi insisted that Iran’s Islamic Republic was collapsing. “This is our Berlin Wall moment,” he said, calling for ordinary Iranians to seize the opportunity afforded by Israel’s war and take to the streets, and for defections from the military and security forces.

But the mass protests Pahlavi encouraged never materialised.

Instead, many Iranians – including those opposed to the government – rallied around the flag in a moment of attack by a foreign force. It appears that Pahlavi, who said in his Paris speech that he was ready to replace Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and lead Iranians down a “road of peace and democratic transition”, had misread the room.

While he was willing to align with Israel in achieving what he perceives to be the greater goal of overthrowing the Islamic Republic, the majority of his compatriots were not.

If anything, Pahlavi may have squandered the little support he once had by choosing not to condemn Israel’s heavy bombardment of Iran, which killed more than 935 people, including many civilians, said Trita Parsi, an expert on Iran and the author of Treacherous Alliance: The Secret Dealings of Israel, Iran and the United States.

“He has – in my estimation – destroyed much of the brand name [of the shah] … by going on TV and making excuses for Israel when it was targeting our apartment buildings and killing civilians,” he told Al Jazeera.

Pahlavi’s office did not respond to requests for comment from Al Jazeera.

Generational appeal

The level of support for Pahlavi is disputed, but many experts doubt it is extensive.

Still, what support he does have – particularly in the Iranian diaspora – often emanates from opposition to the Islamic Republic and nostalgia for the monarchy that predated it.

Yasmine*, a British-Iranian in her late 20s, said that members of her own family support Pahlavi for the symbolism of the pre-Islamic Republic era that he represents, as opposed to what he may actually stand for, adding that she believed that he lacked a clear political vision.

“He really symbolises what Iran was [a government that was secular and pro-West] prior to the Islamic Republic, and that’s what those who are asking for Reza Pahlavi want back,” she told Al Jazeera.

Her aunt, Yasna*, 64, left Iran just months before the 1979 revolution to attend university in the United Kingdom. While she supports Pahlavi for the reasons her niece mentioned, she also believes Iran will no longer be a pariah to the West if he returned to rule Iran.

“He’s somebody from my generation, and I have a clear memory of growing up in the days under the shah … he’s also so friendly with America, Europe and Israel, and we need somebody like that [in Iran],” Yasna said.

Analysts explained to Al Jazeera that the lack of a prominent alternative to Pahlavi – due to the Iranian government’s crackdown on political opposition – was part of Pahlavi’s appeal.

They also pointed out that support for Pahlavi is tied to the distorted memory that some have of his grandfather, Reza Khan, and his father, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi.

Reza Khan was widely credited with creating an ethno-centralised state that curtailed the power of the religious clergy and violently cracked down on opponents and minorities. That repression continued under Mohammad Reza Pahlavi.

However, Yasna speaks fondly of the Pahlavi family and hopes Reza Pahlavi can soon carve out his own legacy.

“Reza’s grandfather brought security to the country, and his father helped us move forward. I now think Reza can unite us again,” she said.

Family history

The Pahlavis were not a dynasty with a long and storied past. Reza Khan was a military officer who seized power in the 1920s, before being replaced by Mohammad Reza in 1941.

Foreign powers had a role to play in that, as they did in 1953, when the US and the UK engineered a coup against Iran’s then-elected Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddegh, who had nationalised the assets of the Anglo-Persian oil company, now known as BP, in April 1951.

“The British thought it was their oil,” explained Assal Rad, a historian of Iran and the author of State of Resistance: Politics, Identity and Culture in Modern Iran.

“They had no recognition of the colonial past that allowed them to forcefully take the resource, nor recognition of Iran’s right to take the resource for itself,” she told Al Jazeera.

Prior to the coup, Rad explained that the shah was engaged in a power struggle with Mosaddegh, who openly criticised the shah for violating the constitution. The former wanted to maintain his control, especially over the military, while the latter was trying to mould Iran into a constitutional democracy with popular support.

The coup against Mosaddegh was ultimately successful, leading to another 26 years of progressively more repressive Pahlavi rule.

According to a 1976 report by Amnesty International, the shah’s feared intelligence agency (SAVAK) often beat political prisoners with electric cables, sodomised them and ripped off their finger and toenails to extract false confessions.

“At the end of the day, the shah’s regime was a brutal dictatorship and non-democracy,” Parsi told Al Jazeera.

Economic inequality between the rich urban classes and the rural poor also grew under the shah, according to a 2019 Brookings Institute report by Djavad Salehi-Isfahani, an economist at Virginia Tech University.

And yet, the shah appeared detached from the plight of his own people throughout his reign. Rad referenced a lavish party that the shah threw in 1971 to celebrate 2,500 years of the Persian Empire.

The luxurious party brought together foreign dignitaries from across the world, even as many Iranians struggled to make ends meet, highlighting the country’s economic disparities.

“He was celebrating Iran with nothing Iranian and no Iranians invited nor involved, and he even had student protesters arrested beforehand because he didn’t want incidents to occur while he was doing this,” Rad said. “The party was one of these monumental moments that led to the disconnect between him and his own people.”

Coupled with state repression and rising poverty, the Persian Empire celebration was one of the factors that eventually led to the 1979 revolution.

Reza Pahlavi was in the US when the revolution erupted, training to be a fighter pilot.

He was just 17 years old and has never returned to Iran since. Instead, a life in exile began, with the ultimate goal always remaining a return to his home country – and power.

As the eldest of the shah’s two sons, loyalists to the monarchy recognised Reza Pahlavi as heir apparent after his father passed away from cancer in 1980.

He has since spent the majority of his life in the US, mostly in the suburbs of Washington, DC.

Initially focused on restoring the monarchy, Pahlavi has shifted his rhetoric in the last two decades to focus more on the idea of a secular democracy in Iran. He has said he does not seek power, and would only assume the throne if asked to do so by the Iranian people.

Opposition outreach

Pahlavi’s attempt to broaden his appeal came as he also reached out to other opponents of the Iranian government.

Some have outright refused to work with him, citing his royal background. And others who have worked with him have quickly distanced themselves.

One of the most important examples of this was the Alliance for Democracy and Freedom in Iran, formed in 2023, in the wake of antigovernment protests that began the previous year.

As well as Pahlavi, the coalition included Nobel Peace Prize winner Shirin Ebadi, women’s rights activist Masih Alinejad, human rights activist and actress Nazanin Boniadi, former footballer Ali Karimi, and the author Hamed Esmaeilion.

But problems emerged from the very meeting organised to form the coalition in February 2023.

According to Parsi and Sina Toossi, an expert on Iran with the Center for International Policy (CIP), Pahlavi rejected any proposal to collaborate with the other attendees at the meeting in Washington, DC’s Georgetown University, either by agreeing to make decisions based on a shared consensus or through some kind of majority vote.

He instead wanted all attendees to defer and rally behind him as a leader of the opposition.

Another issue that followed the Georgetown meeting was the behaviour of Pahlavi’s supporters, many of whom were against anyone associated with left-wing politics, and defenders of the actions of the shah’s regime.

“The monarchists [his supporters] were upset that Reza was put on par with these other people [at the meeting],” said Toossi.

The coalition soon collapsed, with Esmaeilion referring to “undemocratic methods” in what many perceived to be criticism of Pahlavi.

Israeli connections

Two months after the Georgetown meeting, and as the newly formed alliance quickly collapsed, Pahlavi made a choreographed visit to Israel with his wife Yasmine.

As Al Jazeera previously reported, the visit was arranged by Pahlavi’s official adviser Amir Temadi, and Saeed Ghasseminejad, who works at the US right-wing think tank the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies (FDD), which frequently publishes analyses that call on the US to use military force to deter Iran’s regional influence and nuclear programme.

During the visit, Pahlavi and his wife took a photo with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his wife Sara.

Yasmine and I were very pleased to meet with @IsraeliPM and Sara @netanyahu. We expressed appreciation for Israel’s continued support for the Iranian people’s democratic aspirations and emphasized that, as the children of Cyrus the Great, Iranians aspire to have a government that… pic.twitter.com/lInuy4lwdC

— Reza Pahlavi (@PahlaviReza) April 19, 2023

The trip highlighted Pahlavi’s close ties to Israel, a relationship that had been cultivated for years, even if it was less publicly acknowledged initially.

During George W Bush’s first term as US president in the early 2000s, Pahlavi approached the powerful American-Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) – a powerful lobby – to speak at their annual conference, according to Parsi.

The offer was rejected, with AIPAC members explaining that he would hurt his own brand as an Iranian nationalist if he were to speak at their annual conference, Parsi explained.

“AIPAC had told him that perhaps it wasn’t a good idea because it could delegitimise him, which tells you something about how disconnected [Pahlavi] was from the realities of the Iranian diaspora,” he told Al Jazeera.

But, about 10 years ago, during US President Donald Trump’s first term, Pahlavi also began to surround himself with advisers who have long called for closer ties between Iran and Israel and for the US to continue its “maximum pressure” sanctions campaign against Iran’s government, according to Toossi.

Trump’s maximum pressure campaign hurt common people more than the Iranian government. It resulted in sharp inflation and major depreciation of its currency, making it difficult for many Iranians to afford basic commodities and life-saving medications, according to Human Rights Watch.

According to Toossi, Pahlavi appeared somewhat aware of the economic hardships brought on by sanctions, which may explain why he supported US President Barack Obama’s Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2015.

The JCPOA ensured global monitoring of Iran’s nuclear programme in exchange for much-needed sanctions relief.

However, Pahlavi quickly began to align with Trump when he came to power the following year, Toossi said. Trump scorned the JCPOA and finally pulled out in 2018 before beginning his maximum pressure policy.

The disconnect between Pahlavi and regular Iranians over this issue could also be seen in his actions during the 2023 trip to Israel.

Pahlavi made a well-publicised trip to the Western Wall, in occupied East Jerusalem, which holds considerable religious significance for Jewish people across the world.

The vast majority of Iranians are still Shia Muslims – even if many are secular– and Pahlavi did not visit the Al-Aqsa Mosque, the third-holiest site in Islam. The Western Wall is part of the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound’s exterior wall.

Out of touch

In hindsight, the 2023 trip to Israel and Pahlavi’s apparent friendly relations with Israeli officials have damaged his reputation, said Toossi.

“In short … what’s been going on with the Iran monarchy movement is a very clear, evident and above-the-table alliance with Israel,” he told Al Jazeera.

“He was really the only opposition figure that was supportive of [Israel’s war],” he added.

According to Barbara Slavin, an expert on Iran and a distinguished fellow at the Stimson Centre in Washington, DC, Pahlavi’s rhetoric was “counterproductive” during the 12-day war.

Slavin said Pahlavi has largely been disconnected from the feelings and perspectives inside Iran because he simply has not been there since he was a teenager, and his failure to condemn Israel’s bombardment of civilians has turned a lot of people off.

“After all the civilians Israel killed, [his relationship with Israel] really has a bad smell,” she told Al Jazeera.

Parsi agrees and adds that he doesn’t think Israel truly believes that Pahlavi can one day rule the country due to his lack of popular support both in and outside of Iran.

Parsi believes Israel is simply exploiting his brand to legitimise its own hostility towards Iran.

“He is … useful for the Israelis to parade around because it gives them a veneer of legitimacy for their own war of aggression against Iran” during the fighting, he said.

“[Israel] can point to [Pahlavi] and say, ‘Look. Iranians want to be bombed.’” Parsi said.

But that is a turn-off for many Iranians, including those against the government.

Yasmine, the British-Iranian, is one of them.

Pahlavi, in her view, was not charismatic and had cemented his unpopularity among Iranians, both inside Iran and outside, with his call for Iranians to take to the streets as Israel attacked Iran.

“He was asking Iranians to rise up against the government so that he will come [to take over],” Yasmine said. “He was basically asking Iranians to do his dirty work.”

*Some names have been changed to protect the safety of interviewees