Another Day Of Uncertainty In The Strait After U.S. Claims Strikes On Iranian Minelayers
The most recent flare-up of hostilities between the U.S. and Iran yet again highlights that while the future of Tehran’s nuclear ambitions remains at the heart of peace negotiations, the status of the Strait of Hormuz is the key flashpoint. On Tuesday, Tehran vowed retaliation a day after U.S. forces struck several targets in southern Iran on and near the Strait. Exacerbating the problems, another vessel was reportedly attacked near the mouth of the vital waterway on Tuesday.
These incidents are complicating work toward a peace deal amid an increasingly fragile ceasefire. After the start of the war on Feb. 28, the strategic chokepoint was closed to most traffic by Iran, which is now letting some vessels through under a new fee system that the U.S. vehemently rejects. The closure is having global economic impacts.
“Undoubtedly, the Islamic Republic of Iran will not leave any act of mischief unanswered and will not hesitate in defending the country’s integrity,” the Iranian Foreign Ministry said in a statement on X in which it labeled the U.S. strikes on Monday “a gross violation of the ceasefire enacted on April 8.
The ministry offered no specifics about what actions it could take.
Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei issued a threat against U.S. allies in the region. Countries like Israel, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Jordan, Qatar, Oman and Iraq all house U.S. facilities, many of which have already come under attack during Epic Fury and even after the April 8 ceasefire.
“The hand of time does not turn back, and the nations and lands of the region will no longer serve as shields for American bases,” he stated on X. “America will no longer have a safe haven for mischief and the establishment of military bases in the region.”
The statements were among many from Iran decrying the latest kinetic exchange with America. On Monday, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) told us it hit targets being used to endanger its personnel.
U.S. forces “conducted self-defense strikes in southern Iran… to protect our troops from threats posed by Iranian forces,” Navy Capt. Tim Hawkins, CENTCOM’s chief spokesman told TWZ Monday evening. “Targets included missile launch sites and Iranian boats attempting to emplace mines. U.S. Central Command continues to defend our forces while using restraint during the ongoing ceasefire.”
CENTCOM carried out the strikes after Iran deployed mine-laying boats in the Strait of Hormuz and flew attack drones near American ships, The New York Times reported on Tuesday.
The U.S. “observed Iranian forces taking several actions, including launching the drones and activity at missile launch sites,” the newspaper noted.
CENTCOM’s statement followed reports of explosions in the key southern Iranian city of Bandar Abbas, the epicenter of Iranian naval operations around the Strait of Hormuz. It was attacked repeatedly during Operation Epic Fury and again earlier this month after the ceasefire was in place.
Meanwhile, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) organization reported that the Olympic Life, a Marshal Islands-registered oil tanker, was attacked 60 nautical miles east of Muscat, Oman on Tuesday.
The maritime security firm Ambrey told us the ship was struck by an unknown projectile, which resulted in an explosion on the vessel’s port side along the waterline, creating a discharge of bunker fuel. There were no injuries reported and neither UKMTO nor Ambrey said who launched the projectile.
Amid these incidents, The Wall Street Journal, citing U.S. military officials, reported that the “U.S. Navy is quietly assisting vessel crossings through the Strait of Hormuz.”
The officials told the newspaper that a Greek supertanker laden with two million barrels of crude was guided by the U.S. Navy, as it crossed the waterway off the Omani coast. The ship was stuck in the Middle East Gulf since early March and is now heading to India to deliver its cargo.
However, CENTCOM denied the report, or that it was resuming Project Freedom, the short-lived effort to protect ships stuck in the Strait.
Prior to yesterday’s actions by CENTCOM, both sides had indicated progress on a memorandum of understanding that could halt the war and restart shipping through the blockaded Strait of Hormuz, while giving negotiators 60 days to negotiate more complex issues. These include Iran’s nuclear program, its ballistic missile arsenal and support for proxies like Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen and several groups in Iraq.
On Tuesday, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said he remains hopeful that ongoing peace talks won’t be derailed. However, he also said that the matter of Iran charging fees for ships transiting the Strait was unacceptable.
“There were some talks going on in Qatar today, so we’ll see if we can make progress on – I think it’s a lot of talking back and forth going on about specific language in the initial document,” Rubio told reporters on Tuesday. “So it’ll take a few days.”
Pressed on whether yesterday’s U.S. strikes will affect the peace talks, the secretary said the status of the Strait is non-negotiable.
“Well, the Straits have to be open,” he explained. “They’re going to be open one way or the other. So they need to be open. What’s happening there is unlawful; it’s illegal. It’s unsustainable for the world; it’s unacceptable. I don’t know of any country in the world that doesn’t – the Russians are not in favor of a tolling system; the Chinese are not in favor of a tolling system. I mean, there’s no country in the world that’s in favor of a tolling system except the regime in Iran. So that’s not acceptable; that cannot happen. The Straits need to be open, unimpeded, without tolls. And obviously that needs to happen immediately as soon as anything’s agreed to.”
As we previously reported, Iran claims it is not imposing a toll, but instead a fee for environmental and other services.
“A tolling system that simply charges ships to pass through the waterway would be illegal under international law, but charging fees for actual services rendered to vessels, such as waste disposal at a port, is allowed under certain circumstances,” The New York Times recently noted.
Regardless, Rubio’s comments about the pace of negotiations pours cold water on any hopes of a quick resolution to the crisis. The renewed hostilities do nothing to move the needle forward either.
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Though Iran has made ending the Israel-Hezbollah fight part of its negotiation stance, Israel’s military said its ground forces are moving further into Lebanon.
“As per the directive of myself, the Defense Minister and the IDF Chief of Staff, we are deepening our operation in Lebanon,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced. “The IDF is operating with large forces on the ground and seizing dominant terrain. We are fortifying the security zone to protect the communities of the north. Concurrently, we are leading a massive national effort to advance creative and innovative solutions against explosive drones. We back and praise our heroic commanders and soldiers. They are deep in the field. We are counting on you!”
The Israeli Air Force on Tuesday released video it says shows attacks on Hezbollah infrastructure in Lebanon.
Netanyahu’s announcement about the increased push deeper into Lebanon comes a day after Trump demanded Arab nations seek peace with the Jewish state.
In a lengthy post on his social media platform on Monday, Trump demanded that Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey, Egypt and Pakistan join Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates as members of the Abraham Accords, the 2020 peace and economic trade treaty with Israel created by Trump in his first term.
The American leader also said that while negotiations with Iran are “proceeding nicely,” he will resume attacking should no deal be reached.
“During my discussions on Saturday with President Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud, of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, of The United Arab Emirates, Emir Tamim bin Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani, Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim bin Jaber Al Thani, and Minister Ali al-Thawadi, of Qatar, Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir Ahmed Shah, of Pakistan, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, of Türkiye, President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi, of Egypt, King Abdullah II, of Jordan, and King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, of Bahrain, I stated that, after all the work done by the United States to try and pull this very complex puzzle together, it should be mandatory that all of these Countries, at a minimum, simultaneously, sign onto the Abraham Accords,” Trump proclaimed on Truth Social. “Those Countries discussed are Saudi Arabia, The United Arab Emirates (already a Member!), Qatar, Pakistan, Türkiye, Egypt, Jordan, and Bahrain (already a Member!). It may be possible that one or two have a reason for not doing so, and that will be accepted, but most should be ready, willing, and able to make this Settlement with Iran a far more Historic Event than it would, otherwise, be. The Abraham Accords have proven to be, for the Countries involved (The United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, Sudan, and Kazakhstan), a Financial, Economic, and Social BOOM, even during this time of Conflict and War, with the current Members never even suggesting leaving, or taking so much as even a pause.”
Trump also suggested Tehran would be invited to join if a U.S.-Iran peace deal is inked.
“… Iran signs its Agreement with me, as President of the United States of America, it would be an Honor to have them also be part of this unparalleled World Coalition,” Trump posited. “The Middle East would be United, Powerful, and Economically Strong, like perhaps no other area, anywhere in the World! By copy of this TRUTH, I am asking my Representatives to begin, and successfully complete, the process of signing these Countries into the already Historic Abraham Accords.”
Trump’s Truth Social post follows a phone call he had on Saturday with these leaders announcing that peace talks with Iran had resumed.
“Trump told the leaders that after the war with Iran ends he expects all of them who are still not part of the Abraham Accords or don’t have peace agreements with Israel to join and normalize relations with the Jewish state,” Axios reported, citing two U.S. officials. “The leaders, especially those of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Pakistan who don’t have formal diplomatic relations with Israel, were surprised by Trump’s request.”
“There was silence on the line, and Trump joked and asked if they are still there,” the outlet claimed one of the sources told it.
Given the long-standing enmity between Israel and countries like Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan, the likelihood of them joining the Abraham Accords is questionable. Even though Egypt and Jordan have peace treaties with Israel, the chances either of them sign on are unlikely as well. A major sticking point for all these countries is the ongoing situation in Gaza and the overall unresolved Palestinian-Israeli relations.
The idea that Iran would join the Abraham Accords seems even more far-fetched for obvious reasons.
Contact the author: howard@twz.com
