International Monetary Fund

Argentina’s markets have tumbled, with the peso currency at a historic low, after a heavy defeat for President Javier Milei’s party at the hands of the Peronist opposition at local elections stoked worries about the government’s ability to implement its economic reform agenda.

On Monday, the peso was last down almost 5 percent against the US dollar at 1,434 per greenback while the benchmark stock index fell 10.5 percent, and an index of Argentine stocks traded on United States exchanges lost more than 15 percent. Some of the country’s international bonds saw their biggest falls since they began trading in 2020 after a $65bn restructuring deal.

The resounding victory for the Peronists signalled a tough battle for Milei in national midterm elections on October 26, when his party is aiming to secure enough seats to avoid overrides to presidential vetoes.

The government now faces the difficult choice of whether to allow the peso to depreciate ahead of next month’s midterms or spend its foreign exchange reserves to intervene in the FX market, according to Pramol Dhawan, head of EM portfolio management at Pimco.

“Opting for intervention would likely prove counterproductive, as it risks derailing the IMF programme and diminishing the country’s prospects for future market access to refinance external debt,” Dhawan said via email, referring to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). “The more resources the government allocates to defending the currency, the fewer will be available to meet obligations to bondholders — thereby increasing the risk of default.”

He said early indications that the government may double down on the current strategy “would be a strategic misstep”.

The 13-point gap in the Buenos Aires Province (PBA) election in favour of the opposition Peronists was much wider than polls anticipated and what the market had priced in. The government setback at the polls adds to recent headwinds for a market that had until recently outperformed its Latin American peers.

“We had our reservations about the market being too complacent regarding the Buenos Aires election results. The foreign exchange market will undoubtedly be under the spotlight, as any instability there can have a ripple effect on Argentine assets,” said Shamaila Khan, head of fixed income for emerging markets and Asia Pacific at UBS, in response to emailed questions.

“However, it’s important to note that simply using reserves to prop up the currency isn’t likely to provide much reassurance to the market,” she added. “The midterm elections, in my opinion, carry more weight and their outcome will significantly influence how Argentine assets perform in the coming months.”

The bond market selloff saw the country’s 2035 issue fall 6.25 cents, on track for its largest daily drop since its post-restructuring issuance in 2020.

Based on official counts, the Peronists won 47.3 percent of the vote across the province, while the candidate of Milei’s party took 33.7 percent, with 99.98 percent of the votes counted.

Argentina – one of the big reform stories across emerging markets since Milei became president in December 2023 – has seen its markets come under heavy pressure over the last month following a corruption scandal involving Milei’s sister and political gatekeeper Karina Milei where she has been accused of accepting bribes for government contracts..

The government defeat also comes after the IMF approved a $20bn programme in April, of which some $15bn has already been disbursed. The IMF has eagerly backed the reform programme of Milei’s government to the point that its director, Kristalina Georgieva, had to clarify remarks earlier this year in which she invited Argentines to stay the course with the reforms.

The IMF did not respond to questions on whether this vote result would change its relationship with the Milei administration or alter the programme.

Market selloff

Argentina’s main equity index has dropped around 20 percent since the government corruption scandal broke, its international government bonds have sold off, and pressure on the recently unpegged peso has forced authorities to start intervening in the FX market.

“The result was much worse than the market expected – Milei took quite a big beating, so now he has to come up with something,” said Viktor Szabo, portfolio manager at Aberdeen Investments.

Morgan Stanley had warned in the run-up to the vote that the international bonds could fall up to 10 points if a Milei drubbing dented his agenda for radical reform. On Monday, the outcome saw the bank pull its ‘like’ stance on the bonds.

Barclays analyst Ivan Stambulsky pointed to comments from Economy Minister Luis Caputo on Sunday that the country’s FX regime won’t change.

“We’re likely to see strong pressure on the FX and declining reserves as the Ministry of Economy intervenes,” Stambulsky said. “If FX sales persist, markets will likely start wondering what will happen if the economic team is forced to let the currency depreciate before the October mid-terms.”

Some analysts, however, predicted other parts of the country were unlikely to vote as strongly against Milei as in Buenos Aires province given it is a traditional Peronist stronghold.

They also expected the Milei government to stick to its programme of fiscal discipline despite economic woes.

“The Province of Buenos Aires midterm election delivered a very negative result for the Milei administration, casting doubt on its ability to deliver a positive outcome in October’s national vote and risking the reform agenda in the second half of the term,” said JPMorgan in a Sunday client note.

“The policy mix adopted in the coming days and weeks to address elevated political risk will be pivotal in shaping medium-term inflation expectations — and, ultimately, the success of the stabilisation programme.”

The International Monetary Fund has raised its global growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 slightly, citing stronger-than-expected purchases in advance of an August 1 jump in tariffs imposed by the United States and a drop in the effective US tariff rate to 17.3 percent from 24.4 percent.

In its forecast on Tuesday, it warned, however, that the global economy faced major risks including a potential rebound in tariff rates, geopolitical tensions and larger fiscal deficits that could drive up interest rates and tighten global financial conditions.

“The world economy is still hurting, and it’s going to continue hurting with tariffs at that level, even though it’s not as bad as it could have been,” said Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, IMF chief economist.

In an update to its World Economic Outlook from April, the IMF raised its global growth forecast by 0.2 percentage point to 3 percent for 2025 and by 0.1 percentage point to 3.1 percent for 2026. However, that is still below the 3.3 percent growth it had projected for both years in January and the pre-pandemic historical average of 3.7 percent.

It said global headline inflation was expected to fall to 4.2 percent in 2025 and 3.6 percent in 2026, but noted that inflation would likely remain above target in the US as tariffs passed through to consumers in the second half of the year.

The US effective tariff rate – measured by import duty revenue as a proportion of goods imports – has dropped since April, but remains far higher than its estimated level of 2.5 percent in early January. The corresponding tariff rate for the rest of the world is 3.5 percent, compared with 4.1 percent in April, the IMF said.

US President Donald Trump has upended global trade by imposing a universal tariff of 10 percent on nearly all countries since April and threatening even higher duties to kick in on Friday. Far higher tit-for-tat tariffs imposed by the US and China were put on hold until August 12, with talks in Stockholm this week potentially leading to a further extension.

The US has also announced steep duties ranging from 25 percent to 50 percent on automobiles, steel and other metals, with higher duties soon to be announced on pharmaceuticals, lumber, and semiconductor chips.

Such future tariff increases are not reflected in the IMF numbers, and could raise effective tariff rates further, creating bottlenecks and amplifying the effect of higher tariffs, the IMF said.

Shifting tariffs

Gourinchas said the IMF was evaluating new 15-percent tariff deals reached by the US with the European Union and Japan over the past week, which came too late to factor into the July forecast, but said the tariff rates were similar to the 17.3 percent rate underlying the IMF’s forecast.

“Right now, we are not seeing a major change compared to the effective tariff rate that the US is imposing on other countries,” he said, adding it was not yet clear if these agreements would last.

“We’ll have to see whether these deals are sticking, whether they’re unravelled, whether they’re followed by other changes in trade policy,” he said.

Staff simulations showed that global growth in 2025 would be roughly 0.2 percentage point lower if the maximum tariff rates announced in April and July were implemented, the IMF said.

The IMF said the global economy was proving resilient for now, but uncertainty remained high and current economic activity suggested “distortions from trade, rather than underlying robustness”.

Gourinchas said the 2025 outlook had been helped by what he called “a tremendous amount” of front-loading as businesses tried to get ahead of the tariffs, but he warned that the stockpiling boost would not last.

“That is going to fade away,” he said, adding, “That’s going to be a drag on economic activity in the second half of the year and into 2026. There is going to be pay back for that front loading, and that’s one of the risks we face.”

Tariffs were expected to remain high, he said, pointing to signs that US consumer prices were starting to edge higher.

“The underlying tariff is much higher than it was back in January, February. If that stays … that will weigh on growth going forward, contributing to a really lackluster global performance.”

One unusual factor has been a depreciation of the dollar, not seen during previous trade tensions, Gourinchas said, noting that the lower dollar was adding to the tariff shock for other countries, while also helping ease financial conditions.

US growth was expected to reach 1.9 percent in 2025, up 0.1 percentage point from April’s outlook, edging up to 2 percent in 2026. A new US tax cut and spending law was expected to increase the US fiscal deficit by 1.5 percentage points, with tariff revenues offsetting that by about half, the IMF said.

It lifted its forecast for the euro area by 0.2 percentage point to 1 percent in 2025, and left the 2026 forecast unchanged at 1.2 percent. The IMF said the upward revision reflected a historically large surge in Irish pharmaceutical exports to the US; without it, the revision would have been half as big.

China’s outlook got a bigger upgrade of 0.8 percentage point, reflecting stronger-than-expected activity in the first half of the year, and the significant reduction in US-China tariffs after Washington and Beijing declared a temporary truce.

The IMF increased its forecast for Chinese growth in 2026 by 0.2 percentage point to 4.2 percent.

Overall, growth is expected to reach 4.1 percent in emerging markets and developing economies in 2025, edging lower to 4 percent in 2026, it said.

The IMF revised its forecast for world trade up by 0.9 percentage point to 2.6 percent, but cut its forecast for 2026 by 0.6 percentage point to 1.9 percent.

The move gives US Treasury a chance to recommend replacement, at time that US President Donald Trump is reshaping global economy.

Gita Gopinath, the No. 2 official at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), will leave her post at the end of August to return to Harvard University, the IMF has said.

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva will name a successor to Gopinath in “due course”, the financial institution said in a statement on Monday.

Gopinath joined the fund in 2019 as chief economist, the first woman to serve in that role, and was promoted to first deputy managing director in January 2022.

No comment was immediately available from the United States Department of the Treasury, which manages the dominant US shareholding in the IMF. While European countries have traditionally chosen the IMF’s managing director, the US Treasury has traditionally recommended candidates for the first deputy managing director role.

Gopinath is an Indian-born US citizen.

The timing of the move caught some IMF insiders by surprise, and appears to have been initiated by Gopinath.

Gopinath, who had left Harvard to join the IMF, will return to the university as a professor of economics.

Her departure will offer the US Treasury a chance to recommend a successor at a time when President Donald Trump is seeking to restructure the global economy and end longstanding US trade deficits with high tariffs on imports from nearly all countries.

She will return to a university that has been in the Trump administration’s crosshairs after the school rejected demands to change its governance, hiring and admissions practices.

Georgieva said Gopinath joined the IMF as a highly respected academic and proved to be an “exceptional intellectual leader” during her time, which included the pandemic and global shocks caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

“Gita steered the Fund’s analytical and policy work with clarity, striving for the highest standards of rigorous analysis at a complex time of high uncertainty and rapidly changing global economic environment,” Georgieva said.

Gopinath has also overseen the fund’s multilateral surveillance and analytical work on fiscal and monetary policy, debt and international trade.

Gopinath said she was grateful for a “once in a lifetime opportunity” to work at the IMF, thanking both Georgieva and the previous IMF chief, Christine Lagarde, who appointed her as chief economist.

“I now return to my roots in academia, where I look forward to continuing to push the research frontier in international finance and macroeconomics to address global challenges, and to training the next generation of economists,” she said in a statement.

Public spending cuts across six African countries have resulted in the incomes of health and education workers falling by up to 50 percent in five years, leaving them struggling to make ends meet, according to international NGO ActionAid.

The Human Cost of Public Sector Cuts in Africa report published on Tuesday found that 97 percent of the healthcare workers it surveyed in Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Liberia, Malawi and Nigeria could not cover their basic needs like food and rent with their wages.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is to blame for these countries’ failing public systems, the report said, as the agency advises governments to significantly cut public spending to pay back foreign debt. As the debt crisis rapidly worsens across the Global South, more than three-quarters of all low-income countries in the world are spending more on debt servicing than healthcare.

“The debt crisis and the IMF’s insistence on cuts to public services in favour of foreign debt repayments have severely hindered investments in healthcare and education across Africa. For example, in 2024, Nigeria allocated only 4% of its national revenue to health, while a staggering 20.1% went toward repaying foreign debt,” said ActionAid Nigeria’s Country Director Andrew Mamedu.

The report highlighted how insufficient budgets in the healthcare system had resulted in chronic shortages and a decline in the quality of service.

Women also appear to be disproportionally affected.

“In the past month, I have witnessed four women giving birth at home due to unaffordable hospital fees. The community is forced to seek vaccines and immunisation in private hospitals since they are not available in public hospitals. Our [local] health services are limited in terms of catering for pregnant and lactating women,” said a healthcare worker from Kenya, who  ActionAid identified only as Maria.

Medicines for malaria – which remains a leading cause of death across the African continent, especially in young children and pregnant women – are now 10 times more expensive at private facilities, the NGO said. Millions don’t have access to lifesaving healthcare due to long travel distances, rising fees and a medical workforce shortage.

“Malaria is an epidemic in our area [because medication is now beyond the reach of many]. Five years ago, we could buy [antimalarial medication] for 50 birrs ($0.4), but now it costs more than 500 birr ($4) in private health centres,” a community member from Muyakela Kebele in Ethiopia, identified only as Marym, told ActionAid.

‘Delivering quality education is nearly impossible’

The situation is equally dire in education, as budget cuts have led to failing public education systems crippled by rising costs, a shortage of learning materials and overcrowded classrooms.

Teachers report being overwhelmed by overcrowded classrooms, with some having to manage more than 200 students. In addition, about 87 percent of teachers said they lacked basic classroom materials, with 73 percent saying they paid for the materials themselves.

Meanwhile, teachers’ wages have been gradually falling, with 84 percent reporting a 10-15 percent drop in their income over the past five years.

“I often struggle to put enough food on the table,” said a teacher from Liberia, identified as Kasor.

Four of the six countries included in the report are spending less than the recommended one-fifth of their national budget on education, according to the UNESCO Institute for Statistics.

“I now believe teaching is the least valued profession. With over 200 students in my class and inadequate teaching and learning materials, delivering quality education is nearly impossible,” said a primary school teacher in Malawi’s Rumphi District, identified as Maluwa.

Action Aid said its report shows that the consequences of IMF-endorsed policies are far-reaching. Healthcare workers and educators are severely limited in the work they can do, which has direct consequences on the quality of services they can provide, it said.

“The debt crisis and drive for austerity is amplified for countries in the Global South and low-income countries, especially due to an unfair global economic system held in place by outdated institutions, such as the IMF,” said Roos Saalbrink, the global economic justice lead at ActionAid International. “This means the burden of debt falls on those most marginalised – once again. This must end.”