Inflation

Republicans are licking their wounds after Tuesday’s ballot box defeats. But there is a lesson to be learned here. The various elections in New York City, New Jersey and Virginia, viewed collectively, reminded us yet again of a perennial political truth: Americans still care first and foremost about their wallets.

Culture war-type issues often generate the most salacious headlines — and many of the Trump administration’s fights on these fronts, such as immigration enforcement and higher education reform, are just and necessary. Still, the economy remains the top political issue. Unless Republicans get more serious about advancing an actionable economic agenda to provide real relief to middle- and working-class Americans, the party risks losing even more ground in next year’s midterm elections.

When voters went to the polls in New York City, New Jersey and Virginia, they were often asking the simplest, most urgent questions: Can I pay the rent? Can I fill up my truck at the pump? Can I fill the fridge? Will my job still exist next year? Do I have reliable healthcare for my children? Across too many districts and communities, those answers remain uneasy. Inflation, while well down from its Biden-era peak, is still stubbornly higher than the Fed’s 2% target. Purchasing power is still eroded, and cost-of-living anxieties persist for far too many.

For Republicans, this is both a warning and an opportunity. Despite a concerted effort in recent years to rebrand as the party of the common man, including but hardly limited to Teamsters President Sean O’Brien getting a coveted speaking slot at last year’s Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, too many voters still associate the GOP with tax cuts for the donor class and a general indifference toward the tens of millions of Americans who live paycheck to paycheck. That’s the blunt truth. The perception of corruption in some of the highest corridors of power in Washington, especially when it comes to the influence wielded by the über-wealthy emirate of Qatar, doesn’t exactly assuage voters’ concerns.

If the GOP wants to regain the public’s trust, it must present a compelling vision of what a sound conservative economic stewardship entails in the 21st century.

That redefinition begins with a renewed focus on work, dignity and resilience. The Republican Party must build an economic narrative that centers on taming inflation, boosting wages, rebuilding America’s industrial base and greater healthcare security for the paycheck-to-paycheck class. Conservatives should pursue a pragmatic economic nationalism — one that ties together trade policy, manufacturing, energy production, workforce development and family formation. All proposed economic policies must be explained in concrete, local terms. The relevant questions each and every time should be: How does this policy tangibly benefit the average American, and how can the policy be messaged so that the benefit is clearly understood?

The voters Republicans need to reach are not tuning in to wonky policy seminars. They want results: lower energy bills, affordable groceries, job security and an economy that rewards hard work. The GOP must speak directly to these priorities with honesty and humility.

If economic anxiety persists through next fall’s midterms, voters will punish whichever party appears more indifferent to their struggles. The Trump administration and Republicans across the country need to get to work fast. That means more Trump-signed executive orders, within the confines of the law, that can provide real economic relief and security to the working men and women of America. And it certainly means a concerted congressional attempt to bolster the economic prospects of the middle and working classes, perhaps through the Senate’s annual budget reconciliation process.

Inflation must finally be tamed — including the Fed raising interest rates, contra Trump’s general easy-money instincts, if need truly be. Private health savings account access must be expanded and the ease of acquiring private healthcare must finally be divorced from the particular circumstances of one’s employment. More jobs and supply chains must be reshored. Concerns about child care affordability and parental leave availability must be addressed. And even more of our bountiful domestic energy must be extracted. These are just some of the various policies that voters might reward at the ballot box next fall.

Our searing cultural battles will continue — and they matter, greatly in fact. But when a family can’t afford its groceries or gas, such debates tend to fade into the background. Republicans must rebuild trust with voters on the most fundamental issue in American politics: the promise of economic opportunity and security.

It’s always dangerous to over-extrapolate and glean clear national lessons from a few local elections. But all three of the biggest recent races — for New York City mayor and for New Jersey and Virginia governors — had final winning margins for Democrats greater than most polling suggested. That seems like a clear enough rebuke. Accordingly, the Trump administration and Republicans across the country must deliver real economic results on the real economic issues facing the American people. If they don’t present a compelling economic vision and execute that vision capably and efficiently, there likely will be even greater electoral damage next fall.

That could all but doom the remainder of the Trump presidency. And what a disappointment that would be.

Josh Hammer’s latest book is “Israel and Civilization: The Fate of the Jewish Nation and the Destiny of the West.” This article was produced in collaboration with Creators Syndicate. X: @josh_hammer

US President Donald Trump has appeared on the CBS News programme 60 Minutes just months after he won a $16m settlement from the broadcaster for alleged “deceptive editing”.

In the interview with CBS host Norah O’Donnell, which was filmed last Friday at his Mar-a-Lago residence and aired on Sunday, Trump touched on several topics, including the ongoing government shutdown, his administration’s unprecedented crackdowns on undocumented migrants, the US’s decision to restart nuclear testing, and the trade war with China.

Trump, who regularly appears on Fox News, a right-wing media outlet, has an uneasy relationship with CBS, which is considered centrist.

In October 2020, the president walked out of a 60 Minutes interview in the lead-up to the 2020 election he lost, claiming that the host, Lesley Stahl, was “biased”.

Here are some key takeaways from the interview:

The interview took place one year to the day after Trump sued CBS

The president’s lawyers sued CBS owner Paramount in October 2024 for “mental anguish” over a pre-election interview with rival candidate Kamala Harris that Trump claimed had been deceptively edited to favour Democrats and thus affected his campaign.

CBS had aired two different versions of an answer Harris gave to a question on Israel’s war on Gaza, posed by host Bill Whitaker. One version aired on 60 Minutes while the other appeared on the programme Face the Nation.

Asked whether Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, listened to US advice, Harris answered: “We are not going to stop pursuing what is necessary for the United States – to be clear about where we stand on the need for this war to end.”

In an alternative edit, featured in earlier pre-broadcast promotions, Harris had given a longer, more rambling response that did not sound as concise.

The network argued the answer was edited differently for the two shows due to time restrictions, but Trump’s team claimed CBS “distorted” its broadcasts and “helped” Harris, thereby affecting his campaign. Trump asked for an initial $10bn in damages before upping it to $20bn in February 2025.

Paramount, in July 2025, chose to settle with Trump’s team to the tune of $16m in the form of a donation to a planned Trump presidential library. That move angered journalist unions and rights groups, which argued it set a bad precedent for press freedom.

Paramount executives said the company would not apologise for the editing of its programmes, but had decided to settle to put the matter to rest.

The company was at the time trying to secure federal approval from Trump’s government for a proposed merger with Skydance, owned by Trump ally Larry Ellison. The Federal Communications Commission has since approved the merger that gives Ellison’s Skydance controlling rights.

On October 19, Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, and Steve Witkoff, US special envoy to the Middle East, were interviewed on 60 Minutes regarding the Israel-Gaza war.

He solved rare-earth metals issue with China

After meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea last Thursday, Trump praised his counterpart as a “strong man, a very powerful leader” and said their relationship was on an even keel despite the trade war. However, he blamed China for “ripping off” the US through its dominance of crucial rare earth materials.

Trump told 60 Minutes he had cut a favourable trade agreement with China and that “we got – no rare-earth threat. That’s gone, completely gone”, referring to Chinese export restrictions on critical rare-earth metals needed to manufacture a wide range of items including defence equipment, smartphones and electric vehicles.

However, Beijing actually only said it would delay introducing export controls for five rare-earth metals it announced in October, and did not mention restrictions on a further seven it announced in April this year. Those restrictions remain in place.

Xi ‘knows what will happen’ if China attacks Taiwan

Trump said President Xi did not say anything about whether Beijing planned to attack autonomous Taiwan.

However, he referred to past assurances from Xi, saying: “He [Xi] has openly said, and his people have openly said at meetings, ‘We would never do anything while President Trump is president’, because they know the consequences.”

Asked whether he would order US forces to action if China moved militarily on Taiwan, Trump demurred, saying: “You’ll find out if it happens, and he understands the answer to that … I can’t give away my secrets. The other side knows.”

There are mounting fears in the US that China could attack Taiwan. Washington’s stance of “strategic ambiguity” has always kept observers speculating about whether the US would defend Taiwan against Beijing. Ahead of the last elections, Trump said Taiwan should “pay” for protection.

He doesn’t know who the crypto boss he pardoned is

When asked why he pardoned cryptocurrency multibillionaire and Binance founder Changpeng Zhao last month, Trump said: “I don’t know who he is.”

The president said he had never met Zhao, but had been told he was the victim of a “witch hunt” by the administration of former US President Joe Biden.

Zhao pleaded guilty to enabling money laundering in connection with child sex abuse and “terrorism” on his crypto platform in 2023. He served four months in prison until September 2024, and stepped down as chief executive of Binance.

Binance has been linked to the Trump family’s cryptocurrency company World Liberty Financial, and many have questioned if the case is a conflict of interest.

In March 2025, World Liberty Financial launched its own dollar-pegged cryptocoin, USD1, on Binance’s blockchain and the company promoted it to its 275 million users. The coin was also supported by an investment fund in the United Arab Emirates, MGX Fund Management Limited, which used $2bn worth of the World Liberty stablecoin to buy a stake in Binance.

This part of the interview appeared in a full transcript of the 90-minute interview, but does not appear in either the 28-minute televised version or the 73-minute extended online video version. CBS said in a note on the YouTube version that it was “condensed for clarity”.

Other countries ‘are testing nuclear weapons’

Trump justified last week’s decision by his government to resume nuclear testing for the first time in 33 years, saying that other countries – besides North Korea – are already doing it.

“Russia’s testing, and China’s testing, but they don’t talk about it,” Trump said, also mentioning Pakistan. “You know, we’re an open society. We’re different. We talk about it. We have to talk about it, because otherwise you people are gonna report – they don’t have reporters that gonna be writing about it. We do.”

Russia, China, and Pakistan have not openly conducted tests in recent years. Analyst Georgia Cole of UK think tank Chatham House told Al Jazeera that “there is no indication” the three countries have resumed testing.

He’s not worried about Hamas disarming

The president claimed the US-negotiated ceasefire and peace plan between Israel and Hamas was “very solid” despite Israeli strikes killing 236 Gazans since the ceasefire went into effect. It is also unclear whether or when the Palestinian armed group, Hamas, has agreed it will disarm.

However, Trump said he was not worried about Hamas disarming as the US would force the armed group to do so. “Hamas could be taken out immediately if they don’t behave,” he said.

Venezuela’s Maduro’s ‘days are numbered’

Trump denied the US was going to war with Venezuela despite a US military build-up off the country’s coast and deadly air strikes targeting alleged drug-trafficking ships in the country’s waters. The United Nations has said the strikes are a violation of international law.

Responding to a question about whether the strikes were really about unseating Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro, Trump said they weren’t. However, when asked if Maduro’s days in office were numbered, the president answered: “I would say, yeah.”

US government shutdown is all the Democrats’ fault

Trump, a member of the Republican Party, blamed Democrats for what is now close to the longest government shutdown in US history, which has been ongoing since October 1.

Senators from the Democratic Party have refused to approve a new budget unless it extends expiring tax credits that make health insurance cheaper for millions of Americans and unless Trump reverses healthcare cuts made in his tax-and-spending bill, passed earlier this year.

The US president made it clear that he would not negotiate with Democrats, and did not give clear plans for ending the shutdown affecting 1.4 million governent employees.

US will become ‘third-world nation’ if tariffs disallowed

Referring to a US Supreme Court hearing brought by businesses arguing that the Trump government’s tariff war on other countries is illegal and has caused domestic inflation, Trump said the US “would go to hell” and be a “third world nation” if the court ordered tariffs to be removed.

He said the tariffs are necessary for “national security” and that they have increased respect from other countries for the US.

ICE raids ‘don’t go far enough’

Trump defended his government’s unprecedented Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) raids and surveillance on people perceived to be undocumented migrants.

When asked if the raids had gone too far, he responded: “No. I think they haven’t gone far enough because we’ve been held back by the judges, by the liberal judges that were put in by [former US Presidents Joe] Biden and [Barack] Obama.”

Zohran Mamdani is a ‘communist’

Regarding the New York City mayoral race scheduled for November 4, Trump said he would not back democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani, and called him a “communist”. He said if Mamdani wins, it will be hard for him to “give a lot of money to New York”.

The United States Federal Reserve has cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75 – 4.00 percent, amid signs of a slowing labour market and continued pressure on consumer prices.

The cut, announced on Wednesday, marks the US central bank’s second rate cut this year.

“Job gains have slowed this year, and the unemployment rate has edged up but remained low through August; more recent indicators are consistent with these developments. Inflation has moved up since earlier in the year and remains somewhat elevated,” the Fed said in a statement.

“Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated.”

The cuts were largely in line with expectations. Earlier on Wednesday, CME Fed Watch — which tracks the likelihood of rate cuts — said there was a 97.8 percent probability of rate cuts.

After the September cut, economists had largely been expecting two additional rate cuts for the rest of this year. Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, HSBC, and Morgan Stanley, among others, forecast one more 25-basis-point reduction by year’s end following Wednesday’s cut. Bank of America Global Research is the only major firm that is not anticipating another 25-basis-point cut in 2025.

“The Fed has a challenging line to walk; lower interest rates to support labour markets and growth, or raise them to tamp down inflation. For now, they are taking a cautious approach tilted a bit towards the growth concerns,” Michael Klein, professor of international economic affairs at The Fletcher School at Tufts University in Massachusetts, told Al Jazeera.

Despite forecasts, Federal reserve chairman Jerome Powell isn’t necessarily inevitable.

“We haven’t made a decision about December,” Powell told reporters in a press conference.

“We remain well-positioned to respond in a timely way to potential economic developments.”

Government shutdown implications

The cuts come as economic data becomes increasingly scarce amid the ongoing government shutdown, now in its 29th day as of Wednesday, making it the second-longest in US history, behind the 35-day shutdown during the first presidency of Donald Trump in late 2018 and early 2019.

Because of the shutdown, the Department of Labor did not release the September jobs report, which was scheduled for October 3. The only major government economic data released this month was the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which tracks the cost of goods and services and is a key measure of inflation. The CPI rose 0.3 percent in September on a month-over-month basis to an inflation rate of 3 percent.

That data was released because the Social Security Administration required it to calculate cost-of-living adjustments for 2026. As a result, Social Security beneficiaries will receive a 2.8 percent increase in payments compared to 2025.

The shutdown, however, could have a bigger impact on next month’s central bank decision as the Labor Department is currently unable to compile the data needed for its November reports.

However, amid the limited government data, private trackers are showing a slowdown.

“We are not going to be able to have the detailed feel of things, but I think if there were a significant or material change in the economy one way or another, I think we would pick that up,” Powell said.

Consumer confidence lags

Consumer confidence fell to a six-month low, according to The Conference Board’s report that was released on Tuesday.

The data showed that lower-income earners – those making less than $75,000 a year – are less confident about the economy as fears of job scarcity loom. This comes only days after several large corporations announced waves of layoffs.

On Wednesday, Paramount cut 2,000 people from its workforce. On Tuesday, Amazon cut 14,000 corporate jobs. Last week, big box retailer Target cut 1,800 jobs. This, as furloughs and layoffs weigh on government workers. The US government is the nation’s largest employer.

Those making more than $200,000 annually remain fairly confident and are leading consumer spending that is keeping the economy afloat, according to The Conference Board.

Pressures both on consumer spending and the labour market are largely driven by tariffs weighing on consumers and businesses.

US markets are ticking up on the rate cut. The Nasdaq is up 0.5, the S&P 500 is up 0.1, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up by 0.26 as of 2pm in New York (18:00 GMT).

Oct. 24 (UPI) — The Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release the Consumer Price Index report Friday, two weeks after calling back economists and other employees to prepare the document despite the government shutdown.

The CPI report was originally scheduled to be published Oct. 15, but the shutdown delayed work. However, federal law requires the Social Security Administration to make its cost-of-living adjustment annually based on inflation from the third quarter.

That adjustment, known as COLA, must be published by Nov. 1, though it was originally expected to be released in mid-October.

The BLS called back economists and IT specialists to prepare the report the second week of October.

Economic experts expect Friday’s report will show that inflation has risen to its highest level since May 2024 — 3.1%, ABC News reported. The Federal Reserve‘s target annual inflation rate is 2%.

NBC News reported the report is expected to be released at 8:30 a.m. EDT.

Thursday marked the 23rd day the government was closed for business pending the passage of a stopgap funding bill, making it the second-longest federal shutdown in U.S. history. Friday is Day 24.

LAS VEGAS — Aaron Mahan is a lifelong Republican who twice voted for Donald Trump.

He had high hopes putting a businessman in the White House and, although he found the president’s monster ego grating, Mahan voted for his reelection. Mostly, he said, out of party loyalty.

By 2024, however, he’d had enough.

“I just saw more of the bad qualities, more of the ego,” said Mahan, who’s worked for decades as a food server on and off the Las Vegas Strip. “And I felt like he was at least partially running to stay out of jail.”

Mahan couldn’t bring himself to support Kamala Harris. He’s never backed a Democrat for president. So when illness overtook him on election day, it was a good excuse to stay in bed and not vote.

He’s no Trump hater, Mahan said. “I don’t think he’s evil.” Rather, the 52-year-old calls himself “a Trump realist,” seeing the good and the bad.

Here’s Mahan’s reality: A big drop in pay. Depletion of his emergency savings. Stress every time he pulls into a gas station or visits the supermarket.

Mahan used to blithely toss things in his grocery cart. “Now,” he said, “you have to look at prices, because everything is more expensive.”

In short, he’s living through the worst combination of inflation and economic malaise he’s experienced since he began waiting tables after finishing high school.

Views of the 47th president, from the ground up

Las Vegas lives on tourism, the industry irrigated by rivers of disposable income. The decline of both has resulted in a painful downturn that hurts all the more after the pent-up demand and go-go years following the crippling COVID-19 shutdown.

Over the last 12 months, the number of visitors has dropped significantly and those who do come to Las Vegas are spending less. Passenger arrivals at Harry Reid International Airport, a short hop from the Strip, have declined and room nights, a measure of hotel occupancy, have also fallen.

Mahan, who works at the Virgin resort casino just off the Strip, blames the slowdown in large part on Trump’s failure to tame inflation, his tariffs and pugnacious immigration and foreign policies that have antagonized people — and prospective visitors — around the world.

“His general attitude is, ‘I’m going to do what I’m going to do, and you’re going to like it or leave it.’ And they’re leaving it,” Mahan said. “The Canadians aren’t coming. The Mexicans aren’t coming. The Europeans aren’t coming in the way they did. But also the people from Southern California aren’t coming the way they did either.”

Mahan has a way of describing the buckling blow to Las Vegas’ economy. He calls it “the Trump slump.”

::

Mahan was an Air Force brat who lived throughout the United States and, for a time, in England before his father retired from the military and started looking for a place to settle.

Mahan’s mother grew up in Sacramento and liked the mountains that ring Las Vegas. They reminded her of the Sierra Nevada. Mahan’s father had worked intermittently as a bartender. It was a skill of great utility in Nevada’s expansive hospitality industry.

So the desert metropolis it was.

Mahan was 15 when his family landed. After high school, he attended college for a time and started working in the coffee shop at the Barbary Coast hotel and casino. He then moved on to the upscale Gourmet Room. The money was good; Mahan had found his career.

From there he moved to Circus Circus and then, in 2005, the Hard Rock hotel and casino, where he’s been ever since. (In 2018, Virgin Hotels purchased the Hard Rock.)

Mahan, who’s single with no kids, learned to roll with the vicissitudes of the hospitality business. “As a food server, there’s always going to be slowdowns and takeoffs,” he said over lunch at a dim sum restaurant in a Las Vegas strip mall.

Mahan socked money away during the summer months and hunkered down in the slow times, before things started picking up around the New Year. He weathered the Great Recession, from 2007 to 2009, when Nevada led the nation in foreclosures, bankruptcies soared and tumbleweeds blew through Las Vegas’ many overbuilt, financially underwater subdivisions.

This economy feels worse.

Over the last 12 months, Las Vegas has drawn fewer visitors and those who have come are spending less.

(David Becker / For The Times)

With tourism off, the hotel where Mahan works changed from a full-service coffee shop to a limited-hour buffet. So he’s no longer waiting tables. Instead, he mans a to-go window, making drinks and handing food to guests, which brings him a lot less in tips. He estimates his income has fallen $2,000 a month.

But it’s not just that his paychecks have grown considerably skinnier. They don’t go nearly as far.

Gasoline. Eggs. Meat. “Everything,” Mahan said, “is costing more.”

An admitted soda addict, he used to guzzle Dr Pepper. “You’d get three bottles for four bucks,” Mahan said. “Now they’re $3 each.”

He’s cut back as a result.

Worse, his air conditioner broke last month and the $14,000 that Mahan spent replacing it — along with a costly filter he needs for allergies — pretty much wiped out his emergency fund.

It feels as though Mahan is just barely getting by and he’s not at all optimistic things will improve anytime soon.

“I’m looking forward,” he said, to the day Trump leaves office.

::

Mahan considers himself fairly apolitical. He’d rather knock a tennis ball around than debate the latest goings-on in Washington.

He likes some of the things Trump has accomplished, such as securing the border with Mexico — though Mahan is not a fan of the zealous immigration raids scooping up landscapers and tamale vendors.

He’s glad about the no-tax-on-tips provision in the massive legislative package passed last spring, though, “I’m still being taxed at the same rate and there’s no extra money coming in right now.” He’s waiting to see what happens when he files his tax return next year.

He’s not counting on much. “I’m never convinced of anything,” Mahan said. “Until I see it.”

Something else is poking around the back of his mind.

Mahan is a shop steward with the Culinary Union, the powerhouse labor organization that’s helped make Las Vegas one of the few places in the country where a waiter, such as Mahan, can earn enough to buy a home in an upscale suburb like nearby Henderson. (He points out that he made the purchase in 2012 and probably couldn’t afford it in today’s economy.)

Mahan worries that once Trump is done targeting immigrants, federal workers and Democratic-run cities, he’ll come after organized labor, undermining one of the foundational building blocks that helped him climb into the middle class.

“He is a businessman and most businesspeople don’t like dealing with unions,” Mahan said.

There are a few bright spots in Las Vegas’ economic picture. Convention bookings are up slightly for the year, and look to be strengthening. Gaming revenues have increased year-over-year. The workforce is still growing.

“This community’s streets are not littered with people that have been laid off,” said Jeremy Aguero, a principal analyst with Applied Analysis, a firm that provides economic and fiscal policy counsel in Las Vegas.

“The layoff trends, unemployment insurance, they’ve edged up,” Aguero said. “But they’re certainly not wildly elevated in comparison to other periods of instability.”

That, however, offers small solace for Mahan as he makes drinks, hands over takeout food and carefully watches his wallet.

If he knew then what he knows now, what would the Aaron of 2016 — the one so full of hope for a Trump presidency — say to the Aaron of today?

Mahan paused, his chopsticks hovering over a custard dumpling.

“Prepare,” he said, “for a bumpy ride.”

THE chancellor could raise tens of billions from tax reforms that don’t hit “working people”, leading economists have said.

Rachel Reeves is under pressure to fill an estimated £50billion black hole in the public finances ahead of November’s autumn statement. 

1

Westminster is awash with rumours that Labour could extend the freeze on income tax thresholds.

However, critics say this would mean breaking Labour’s manifesto pledge not to increase taxes on “working people”.

But in a new report, the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) urged the Chancellor to resist “half-baked” solutions like “simply hiking rates”. 

The IFS Green Budget Chapter report instead urges the chancellor to reform the “unfair” and “inefficient” tax system.

End capital gains tax relief on death

Reeves could scrap capital gains tax relief on death, the report said.

When you sell certain assets – like houses, land or other valuable items – you have to pay a tax on the profit you made on it.

However, there are some important exceptions.

For example, if someone dies and you inherit their asset, you don’t have to pay capital gains tax they would have paid.

But the IFS said Reeves should consider scrapping the relief, raising £2.3billion in 2029-30.

However, families could oppose the measure given Labour is already skimming more revenue off inherited wealth.

The inheritance tax threshold has been frozen at £325,000 since 2009.

And last year, Reeves announced she would extend the freeze until 2030.

Hit taxpayers with a ‘one-off’ wealth tax

Economists and politicians are often divided over whether a wealth tax would work.

Supporters argue that the UK’s richest 1% are wealthier than the bottom 70% – and that a wealth tax would reduce this inequality.

But critics say it would be an administrative nightmare and lead millionaires to leave the country, taking their businesses and tax revenues with them.

But if Labour does reach for wealth in the budget – it should opt for a “one-off” wealth tax, the IFS said.

The think tank argues this is a better option than a recurring wealth tax.

It would work by the government calculating how much people’s total assets are worth and taxing them over a certain threshold.

“An unexpected and credibly one-off assessment of existing wealth could in principle be an economically efficient way to raise revenue,” the IFS wrote.

However, a wealth tax that happened on a regular basis would have “serious drawbacks,” the think tank warned.

Valuing everyone’s wealth every year would be “extremely difficult,” it said.

Moreover, a regular tax could deter the highest tax payers from residing in the UK long-term, potentially hitting overall tax revenues.

But the IFS said that even a “one-off” levy could spell trouble if people don’t trust the government not to come back for more.

The report said: “The potential efficiency of such a tax could be
undermined, however, if announcing a one-off tax created expectations of, or uncertainty about, other future taxes.”

Double the council tax rates paid by highest value homes

A new council tax surcharge could raise up to £4.4billion.

Council tax is a local tax on residential properties in the UK, with homes assigned to Bands A to H based on their value.

Bands G and H generally include the highest value homes.

The IFS said doubling the council tax paid by these households could mean a £4.4billion boost.

However, critics already say the council tax system is “unfair and arbitrary”.

As reported by The Sun, families living in modest homes sometimes pay more than those in multi-million-pound mansions.

The root of the problem is simple – council tax bills are not based on what your home is worth today.

Instead, it’s based on its value way back in 1991, when homes were categorised into bands ranging from A to H. 

Decades of uneven house price growth mean this once-simple system is now riddled with inequalities.

Moreover, councils set their own tax rates – leading to a “postcode lottery”.

The average Band D council tax in England is £2,280, but councils set their own rates.

For example, in Wandsworth, people pay just £990, while in Nottingham, they pay £2,656.

This means that millions of homeowners pay much less compared to their property’s value than those in poorer areas, according to PropertyData.

Another potential problem is that the extra cash would go to local authorities rather than central government.

Local authorities use council tax to pay for local services like schools, bin collections and libraries.

So to make sure it reaps the benefits of the change, Downing Street could reduce the grants being paid to councils, the IFS said.

The UK government gives councils more than £69billion in funding – a 6.8% increase in cash terms compared to 2024-25.

But councils would likely still fight back against any funding downgrade – with sticky 3.8% inflation already eating into their grants.

Rejig inheritance tax

The IFS admits that changes to inheritance tax could ‘provoke’ strong reactions.

But its report said that the £9billion said annually is ‘modest’ – although high by historical standards.

Reforming death duties to abolish the additional £175,000 tax-free allowance could raise around £6billion, the economists wrote.

“One obvious option would be to increase the rate of inheritance tax from its current 40%,” the economists wrote.

They said an increase of just 1% would raise £0.3billion in 2029–30.

The government could also reduce the threshold at which the tax begins to be paid.

Currently, people can pass on up to £325,000 of wealth tax-free.

Then there’s an additional £175,000 tax-free allowance that can be used only when passing on a primary residence to a direct descendant.

Abolishing the second of these allowances, for example, could raise around £6billion in 2029–30, the IFS said.

Crack down on businesses underpaying their taxes

The think tank has urged Labour to tackle tax non-compliance.

Corporation tax, a tax on company profits, has become increasingly important to the Treasury’s coffers in recent years.

Over the course of the 2010s, revenue averaged 2.4% of national income, rising to 3.3% in 2025–26.

But corporation tax dodging meant 15.8% of liabilities went unpaid in 2023-24, up from just 8.8% in 2017-18.

Small businesses are mainly to blame, the IFS said, admitting that claiming the prize of missing corporation tax “would not be straightforward in practice”.

The think tank added: “More work is needed to understand why so many small companies are submitting incorrect tax returns.

“It is likely that tackling the gap would require targeted
compliance activities from HMRC, such as auditing small businesses.”

The IFS also said “more revenue could be raised from corporation tax”.

However, it did warn that, while a 1% increase would raise £4.1billion, there could be adverse consequences.

The authors wrote that investment in the UK could become “less attractive” and reduce future tax yields.

However, critics may argue that any tax hike hitting members of the public – even if targeting inheritance or council tax – will still feel like a broken promise.

What must the chancellor avoid doing?

The personal tax allowance has been frozen at £12,570 since April 2021.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced the freeze would remain until April 2026 and Labour extended it until April 2028.

Extending the freeze on personal tax thresholds including national insurance contributions would raise around £10.4billion a year from 2029-30.

But IFS economists say Reeves must not do this – and instead lift the threshold amid rising inflation.

Extending the freeze would be a breach of Labour’s manifesto pledge not to increase taxes for “working people” which includes income tax, national insurance and VAT, the IFS said.

The report’s authors also said restricting income tax relief on pension contributions would raise large sums but should be avoided.

Currently, when you put money into a pension, the income tax you’ve already paid on that money is essentially returned via a government top-up.

The IFS said restricting relief would be “unfair” to penalise pensions again when pension income is already taxed.

The Chancellor should also resist the temptation to up stamp duties, the IFS said.

The think tank fears it would cause people to avoid selling their homes when they want to – hitting the jobs market and holding back growth.

“Changing rates and thresholds is all very well, but unless the Chancellor is willing to pursue genuine reform it will be taxpayers that shoulder the cost of her neglect,” the report, which forms a chapter in the IFS’s wider budget assessment for 2025, said.

Isaac Delestre, a senior research economist at the think tank and an author of the chapter, said Ms Reeves would have “fallen short” if she reaches for quick revenue without wider reform.

“Almost any package of tax rises is likely to weigh on growth, but by tackling some of the inefficiency and unfairness in our existing tax system, the Chancellor could limit the economic damage,” he said.

THE Co-op has warned that up to 60,000 small shops across the UK could face closure without upcoming business rates reform for small shops.

In the 2024 Autumn Budget, Chancellor Rachel Reeves promised to provide permanent business rates relief for small retail properties.

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At the time, the Government proposed raising business rates on the biggest retail properties with values over £500,000.

This would allow for a discount on rates for small retail and hospitality premises to be permanent.

The government has not yet set the rates, but changes are due to take effect in April 2026.

But the Co-op is now urging the Government to commit to the maximum levels of relief for smaller stores in the upcoming Autumn Budget on November 24.

Research conducted by the supermarket found one in eight small high street business owners will be at risk of shutting down if reforms are not delivered.

A further 10% of small said they would need to lay off staff.

Shirine Khoury-Haq, Co-op group chief executive, said: “The proposed system would improve the financial situation of 99% of retailers.

“How much they are protected from tax rises depends on decisions made in this Budget. To boost local economies, create jobs and provide community cohesion, we need inclusive growth.”

“That means supporting the businesses on the corners, in the precincts, on the parades and the high streets of every community.

” In order for them to not only survive, but to thrive, the government has to commit to the maximum levels of relief.” 

It comes as many larger retailers have voiced concerns over plans to increase business rates on larger stores, arguing the move could make them unprofitable or lead to price hikes.

In August, a letter signed by Morrisons, Aldi and JD Sports, warned that further tax rises on businesses could result in the Labour government breaking its manifesto pledge to provide “high living standards”.

It reads: “As retailers, we have done everything we can to shield our customers from the worst inflationary pressures but as they persist, it is becoming more and more challenging for us to absorb the cost pressures we face.”

Analysis carried out by the British Retail Consortium also suggested that 400 larger-format stores, such as department stores and supermarkets could close if the changes took place.

Many businesses have already seen their labour costs rise thanks to the rate of employer national insurance being increased in last year’s Budget.

The Treasury expects the new rates system will only impact the top 1% of properties.

A Treasury spokesperson said: “We are creating a fairer business rates system to protect the high street, support investment, and level the playing field by introducing permanently lower tax rates for retail, hospitality, and leisure properties from April that will be sustainably funded by a new, higher rate on less than 1% of the most valuable business properties.

“Unlike the current relief for these properties, there will be no cash cap on the new lower tax rates, and we have set out our long-term plans to address ‘cliff edges’ in the system to support small businesses to expand.”

HIGH tax fears ahead of next month’s Budget have sent business confidence to its lowest level in three years, a survey shows. 

Company bosses fear a Groundhog Day experience as concerns grow they will bear the brunt of another slew of punishing taxes. 

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Optimism levels appear to be in freefall as tax concerns hit profits growth, recruitment and investment plans. 

Businesses have now lowered their expectations for the year ahead as muted domestic sales growth also drags down confidence — now at its lowest level since the end of 2022. 

Six in ten bosses say the tax burden is a growing challenge — a historic high for the survey and a big rise from just one in 16 making the claim towards the end of 2020. 

They also say that they were hurt by the £25billion National Insurance tax raid — and are now concerned about rises in next month’s Budget. 

Nearly half say regulatory requirements are the second biggest worry in a push for better performance. 

It comes ahead of the two-year roll out of a new workers’ rights package which will heap more red tape on employers grappling with costs. 

Concerns have been raised over giving day-one rights to workers and bolstered trade union rights.

Business sentiment is found to be weakest in the property sector, followed by retail companies, the research by the Institute for Chartered Accountants in England and Wales reveals. 

CEO Alan Vallance said: “It’s Groundhog Day for Britain’s businesses as we enter another run up to a Budget with poor growth, strained public finances and a fear that business will once again bear the brunt of higher taxes.” 

Chancellor Rachel Reeves is expected to try to find about £30billion to help plug the gap in the nation’s finances.

But she has been given an extra £2billion of wriggle room after borrowing stats showed inaccurate data on VAT receipts. 

ED MILIBAND is a “walking, talking cost-of-living crisis”, according to shadow Energy Secretary Claire Coutinho.

The senior MP — who will tomorrow unveil Tory plans for cheaper utilities — vowed to get her Labour arch-rival SACKED as gas and electricity costs rose again this week on his watch.

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Experts have warned that Red Ed, who promised to cut energy bills by up to £300 a year before the 2024 General Election, will only drive prices higher with his Net Zero obsession.

Already, £1billion has been spent this year switching off wind turbines when it got too blowy for the network to cope.

Other sources, such as gas-fired plants, then had to be paid to be used as a replacement. The shutdown has pushed household bills up by £15 a year.

In an interview with the Sun on Sunday, Ms Coutinho fumed: “Ed Miliband is a disaster.

“Every decision (he) has made in government is going to send people’s bills up.

“He promised people £300 off their bills, and so far they’re already £200 up. People are rightly furious.

“I don’t know what he’s on. He is a walking, talking cost-of-living crisis.

“I’m going to make it my mission in this parliament to get him sacked.”

She continues: “I think he can’t add up because if you look at what he’s doing, gas at the moment is about £55 a megawatt-hour.

“He said he’s willing to pay up to £117 for offshore wind this year, and then he talks about cutting people’s bills. You don’t need a calculator to see that is just total madness.”

The top Tory also slated Energy Secretary Mr Miliband for “signing up to 20-year contracts” for offshore wind, adding: “We’re going to be saddled with these incredibly high prices for decades.”

Ms Coutinho is the face of the Conservative Party’s scepticism over a move to Net Zero.

At their annual conference in Manchester tomorrow, she will outline proposals to cut bills by scrapping green levies.

She said: “The most important thing the country needs — and we’re unashamed about this — is lower energy bills.

“Our priority for energy policy going forward will be simple: Make electricity cheaper.

“It will be good for growth, it’s good for cost-of-living — something we know lots of families are still struggling with — and, most importantly, it will be good for the whole of the UK to have much cheaper energy bills.”

Levies funding environmental and social projects add around £140 to annual electricity bills and £50 to gas bills, says innovation agency Nesta.

It comes as the UK energy price cap rose again this week by two per cent, meaning the average household paying for gas and electricity by direct debit will see costs increase from £1,720 to £1,755 per year.

Ms Coutinho’s stance marks a much harder line on eco-policies as the Tories try to stave off Nigel Farage’s party.

Reform UK promised to scrap the Net Zero target and told wind and solar developers they will end green energy subsidies if they win power.

It has prompted Mr Miliband to liken the Tories to a “Reform tribute act”.

But Ms Coutinho said: “That’s absolute rubbish, If you look at Reform, they’ve got the economics of Jeremy Corbyn.”

She claimed there was a huge black hole in Reform’s spending plans, adding: “That simply isn’t going to work for a country where you’ve got interest rates high, inflation is high. We need to be bringing those things down. So we need to live within our means.”

Tories have pledged to scrap the restrictive Climate Change Act 2008 brought in by the last Labour government, and the target of Net Zero emissions by 2050 enshrined by Tory PM Theresa May in 2019.

Ms Coutinho said: “We’ve got new leadership now and both Kemi and I strongly feel that the biggest problem that this country faces is that we’ve got the highest industrial electricity prices in the world and the second highest domestic prices. Now that’s just not going to work for Britain.”

Tories would also abolish quango the Climate Change Committee, which advises the Government on Net Zero.

Ms Coutinho said: “For too long, energy policy has been in the hands of people who are unelected and unaccountable — and that’s just not right.”

And she has left the door open to fracking.

A ban was lifted by Liz Truss during her short tenure in Downing Street – but this was abandoned by her successor Rishi Sunak.

Ms Coutinho added: “We’re a small dense island and it can be very disruptive. So it shouldn’t be done to communities without their say so.”

The shadow cabinet member admitted people are frustrated the Tories have taken their time to come up with policies after their disastrous loss at last year’s General Election.

But she insisted: “At conference, you’ll see a lot more from us. This is the moment where we’ll start telling people all the results of our work, and be able to explain what our plan is.

“The difference between us and Labour and Reform is our plans are real, they’re fully funded, they can be delivered tomorrow.”

She promised the Tories will bring forward plans the public can trust, adding: “People have really lost faith in government to be able to do the things that they want it to do. So we need to rebuild that trust.”

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The U.S. economy will be hampered by the Trump administration’s tariffs in the coming months, which along with interest rate cuts could lead to a “stagflation-lite” scenario of modestly elevated inflation and unemployment, according to the UCLA Anderson Forecast released Wednesday.

The fourth-quarter estimate also predicts that rising layoffs could lead to a recession, and if President Trump is successful in exerting more control over the Federal Reserve, a “full blown stagflation scenario becomes a more significant risk.”

“This forecast is being produced at a time when more extreme scenarios have become increasingly plausible, even though they do not yet represent our baseline outlook,” states the report by Clement Bohr, senior economist at the forecast.

UCLA’s report notes that the labor market “deteriorated notably” in June while inflation pivoted away from a path of “gradual normalization” onto a rising trajectory.

The quarterly forecast does not take into account the government shutdown that began Wednesday that could results in thousands of layoffs, but predicts third-quarter GDP growth will come in at just 1% on a seasonably adjusted basis, and it will weaken further as the full cost of the tariffs takes hold.

It expects growth to recover in the middle of next year and reach 2% by the fourth quarter, remaining there throughout 2027.

Driving the stagflation prediction is an effective tariff rate of about 11%, with the risk of future levies on pharmaceuticals and the potential lack of a resolution of the China trade dispute. The report notes the political pressure on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and the decision by the bank to cut the federal funds rate by a quarter point in September. UCLA predicts a similar rate cut this month.

Trump’s “big beautiful” budget reconciliation bill passed in July, which included $703 billion in temporary tax cuts over the next four years starting in 2026, also will provide substantial stimulus. The Consumer Price Index is expected to peak at 3.6% in the first quarter of next year before easing.

However, the economy will be held back by a tightening labor supply caused by retiring baby boomers and restrictive immigration policies. The unemployment rate has crept up to 4.3% and is expected to peak at 4.6% early next year.

Also Wednesday, closely watched ADP Research released figures showed private-sector payrolls decreased by 32,000 in September with job growth slowing across many industries.

The billions of dollars being invested in artificial intelligence by large technology firms has helped prop up the economy, the forecast noted, which should result in productivity gains — but the capital expenditures should tail off as a “trough of disillusionment” sets in when revenue gains don’t meet expectations.

The report also expects consumer consumption to weaken following a surge in electric-vehicle purchases in the third quarter due to the expiration of federal tax credits last month.

Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, said if the government shutdown lasts a week or two it won’t have a “meaningful economic impact.” However, if it lasts for a month or more and is accompanied by mass federal layoffs, it would have a profound effect on the economy, Zandi said.

“It would wreak havoc on the financial markets as global markets and investors begin to wonder if we can govern ourselves,” he said. “That would mean higher interest rates and lower stock prices.”

TRADESPEOPLE are struggling to expand their businesses because of growing costs, bureaucracy and hiring pressures, a new study suggests.

A survey of 850 tradespeople working across the UK by Checkatrade showed they were eager to contribute to the Government’s plan for growth, but challenges were preventing them from doing so.

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Four out of five of those surveyed said rising costs of materials and tools, plus increased levels of tool theft, were preventing them from growing their business.

A similar number blamed rising taxes, such as the increase in employer National Insurance Contributions.

In April the Government increased the rate of National Insurance contributions from 13.8% to 15%.

It also lowered the threshold at which employers start paying National Insurance from £9,100 to £5,000.

This has piled further pressure onto tradespeople already struggling to make ends meet.

Jambu Palaniappan, chief executive of Checkatrade, said: “The UK is a nation dependent on the trade industry — from carpenters to electricians, decorators to roofers.

“The 900,000 people behind it couldn’t be more important for propelling our economy.”

He said that the research shows how eager tradespeople are to contribute to the Government’s growth agenda.

As part of the plan the Government wants to improve the UK’s rate of economic growth and boost national productivity.

But while there is lots of optimism and significant opportunities for growth, there are still significant challenges tradespeople face.

Palaniappan said: “The Government needs to work with industry to close skills gaps, ensure apprenticeships work for small businesses, and do everything they can to reduce the burdens, the costs, and the taxes that can stifle tradespeople’s growth.”

What support is available?

If you are self-employed and are struggling with the higher cost of living, then there is support available to you.

Universal Credit

One way is to top up your income with Universal Credit.

You can apply if you need to top up your income and have low income and savings.

But you won’t be eligible if you live with a spouse or partner and have combined savings of more than £16,000 or your partner earns too much.

You can check if you are eligible and your claim is likely to be successful by using a benefits calculator.

Turn2us and Entitledto both offer calculators that can help you check whether you qualify.

You will need to attend a gateway interview with a DWP work coach so they can check that being self-employed is your main job.

They will also confirm if you are making a profit or are expected to if you’ve just started out.

This means you’ll need to provide evidence such as receipts, a business plan, copies of invoices, trading accounts or proof you’ve registered as self-employed with HMRC.

If you don’t have enough evidence, then they may decide that you’re not “gainfully” self-employed.

You will need to look and be eligible for other work while you get Universal Credit.

For more information and to apply visit the GOV.UK website.

Employment and Support Allowance

If you’re self-employed, then you can’t claim Statutory Sick Pay.

But if you’ve paid enough National Insurance, then you may be able to claim the new-style Employment and Support Allowance if you’re ill.

If you qualify for the benefit, then you can claim it regardless of your household income or savings.

But if you haven’t paid enough National Insurance, then you may be able to claim the limited capability for work and work-related activity element of Universal Credit.

To be eligible your savings must be less than £16,000.

If you live with a partner, then their income will also be taken into account as part of the claim for Universal Credit.

For information on if you qualify for Employment and Support Allowance and what to do if you don’t visit GOV.UK.

Cut your tax bill

You could be missing out on key tax allowances that could save you hundreds of pounds a year.

If you work from home, then you may be able to claim for costs associated with work, such as business phone calls, gas and electricity.

If you work from home between 51 and 100 hours a month, then you could get £18.

Meanwhile, if you work for more than 101 hours a month from home, then you could get £26 a month – or £312 a year.

If the amount of time you work from home varies month-to-month, then you can claim the relevant amount for that month.

To apply visit the GOV.UK website.

You may also be able to claim tax relief on your mileage if you drive a car or van for work.

You can claim 45p tax relief on every mile you do for the first 10,000 miles a year of business journeys.

If you travelled this distance in a year, you would get £4,500 in tax relief a year.

If you drive more than 10,000 miles, then you can claim 25p tax relief per mile.

You can also get an additional 5p per mile in relief if you carry a passenger.

You can log the number of miles you do and add reminders to report your mileage using apps including driversnote and Fuelio.

To use these apps just download them from the app store and create an account.

Read our helpful guide for more advice on how to cut your tax bill if you’re self-employed.

Do you have a money problem that needs sorting? Get in touch by emailing [email protected].

Plus, you can join our Sun Money Chats and Tips Facebook group to share your tips and stories

SEIZURES of beer smuggled  to   Britain   have   nearly quadrupled in five years.

Some 5.6million pints were confiscated at ports compared to 1.5million in 2019, according to ­government figures.

Many cans and bottles from mainland Europe are hidden in trucks and routed through Ireland.

Customs bosses said checks had been increased at ports such as Heysham and Birkenhead, in the North West, and Cairnryan in Scotland.

Illegal booze is now estimated to cost the UK around £1billion a year in lost duty payments.

The British Beer and Pub Association said: “A third of the price of an average UK pint goes to the taxman.

“No wonder illicit trade is booming.”

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Sept. 26 (UPI) — Core inflation stayed about the same in August, the Federal Reserve said, and personal consumption expenditures had a 0.3% gain for the month.

The personal consumption expenditures price index rise made the annual headline inflation rate 2.7%, which is the inflation over last year, the Commerce Department reported.

The core inflation rate is at 2.9%. It rose 0.2% for the month.

Meanwhile, consumer sentiment fell to 55.1, the University of Michigan said in a survey released Friday. The report was the seventh-lowest on record since 1952.

The pessimism stems from fears of higher inflation, which could get worse. On Thursday, President Donald Trump announced new tariffs on trucks, cabinets and pharmaceuticals.

Americans are now also becoming nervous about the labor market.

“Consumers continue to express frustration over the persistence of high prices, with 44% spontaneously mentioning that high prices are eroding their personal finances, the highest reading in a year,” Joanne Hsu, the Michigan survey’s director, said in a release.

“Interviews this month highlight the fact that consumers feel pressure both from the prospect of higher inflation as well as the risk of weaker labor markets,” she said.

Consumer spending is still going strong. Personal consumption expenditures climbed 0.6% in August from the previous month, the Commerce Department said Friday.

After adjusting for inflation, spending rose 0.4% last month. The personal saving rate, which is personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income, was 4.6%.

“Recent data show consumers resumed spending over the summer, especially those with higher incomes. And why wouldn’t they? Unemployment is still low, nominal wages are still increasing and asset valuations are near all-time highs,” CNN reported Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said Friday at an event in Washington, D.C.

Stock market futures rose after the report, while Treasury yields dipped, CNBC reported.

“Net, net, consumers literally hit it out of the park with very strong gains in spending not just for August, but June and July as well,” Chris Rupkey, chief economist at Fwdbonds, told CNBC.

“Summer was the time for consumer revenge spending after hunkering down in retreat from the shops and malls during the uncertainty and fear produced by the White House tariff rollout in April and May.”

Data by YCharts.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC -0.50%) fell 0.5% to 6,604.72, while the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC -0.50%) declined 0.5% to 22,384.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI -0.38%) slipped 0.4% to 45,947.32. It was the third straight session of losses, with yields hovering near recent highs and traders reluctant to add risk ahead of key inflation data.

Attention is turning to Friday’s release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, considered the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation. The reading will help determine whether policymakers maintain a cautious stance on rate cuts after Chair Jerome Powell recently emphasized patience.

Economic signals added to the mixed picture. Jobless claims fell this past week, but hiring remains muted, pointing to a labor market losing steam. At the same time, second-quarter GDP was revised higher, underscoring resilience in growth despite tighter financial conditions.

On the corporate front, Intel (INTC 8.82%) rose 8.9% on reports of investment talks with Apple, while IBM (IBM 5.31%) gained 5.2% on results from a quantum computing trial with HSBC. CarMax (KMX -19.96%) tumbled 20% after missing earnings expectations and warning on weak sales trends.

Market data sourced from Google Finance on Thursday, Sept. 25, 2025.