Inflation

WASHINGTON — President Trump, his Treasury secretary and his choice to lead the Federal Reserve believe they can coax the U.S. economy back to a boom reminiscent of the 1990s.

They are putting their faith in artificial intelligence to duplicate what happened when another technology arrived during the Clinton era: the internet. Back then, the American economy surged as businesses became more productive, unemployment tumbled and inflation remained in check.

Trump expresses confidence that his nominee to become Fed chair, Kevin Warsh, can unleash an economic bonanza by jettisoning what the president sees as the central bank’s hidebound reluctance to slash interest rates.

Many economists are skeptical.

The world looks a lot different today than it did when the Spice Girls ruled radio and “Titanic’’ dominated the box office. And the story the Trump team is telling — that a visionary Fed chair, Alan Greenspan, fueled the 1990s boom by keeping interest rates low — is incomplete at best.

“The administration is offering a rather distorted version of what actually happened in the 1990s,’’ economist Dario Perkins of TS Lombard said in a commentary.

Nonetheless, the Trump administration believes history can repeat itself. All that’s been missing, Trump says, is a Fed chair with Greenspan’s foresightedness.

AI’s influence over interest rates

Trump has repeatedly attacked current Fed chief Jerome H. Powell, whose term as chair ends in May, for his caution in lowering rates while inflation hovers above the central bank’s 2% target. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on social media in January that the president sought to replace Powell with someone with “an open, Greenspan-like mind.”

“Our nation can see productivity boom like we did in the ’90s when we are not encumbered by a Federal Reserve which throws the brakes on,’’ Bessent wrote.

On Jan. 30, Trump said he was picking Warsh.

In speeches and writings, Warsh has argued that AI-driven improvements in productivity could justify lower interest rates.

These views align with Trump’s desires for Fed rate cuts but mark a break with Warsh’s past as an inflation hawk.

In the aftermath of the 2007-09 Great Recession, Warsh — then a Fed governor — objected to some of the central bank’s efforts to help the struggling economy by pushing down rates even though unemployment exceeded 9%. He warned then, wrongly, that inflation would soon accelerate.

At issue now are gains in productivity and the possibility that AI will make them bigger — much bigger.

To economists, productivity improvements are almost magical. When companies roll out new machines or technology, their workers can become more efficient and produce more stuff per hour. That enables firms to earn more and to raise employees’ pay without raising prices. In short: Surging productivity can drive economic growth without spurring inflation.

Greenspan and the internet

In the mid-1990s, Greenspan was contending with a strange set of economic circumstances: Wages were rising but inflation wasn’t heating up.

Big productivity gains might have explained things, but government data showed no sign of them. Other Fed policymakers worried that surging wages and tame inflation couldn’t coexist and that higher prices were coming. They wanted to raise interest rates.

But Greenspan suspected that the official productivity numbers were missing something. For one thing, they didn’t jibe with the amazing tales of efficiency improvements the Fed was hearing from companies investing in computers and turning to the internet.

So he ordered his lieutenants to dig through decades of productivity numbers. The official statistics they assembled told an implausible story: Services firms — including retailers and legal practices — had supposedly seen productivity fall over the years, despite intense competitive pressure and massive investments in technology.

Greenspan didn’t believe it. He persuaded his Fed colleagues that the government’s numbers were wrong and were understating productivity. They agreed in September 1996 to hold off on raising rates.

The economy took flight.

Tardily, productivity advances began to show up in the official data. Overall, American economic growth surpassed 4% every year from 1997 through 2000, something it would do again only once in the next quarter century. The unemployment rate plunged to 3.8% in April 2000, the lowest in three decades. Inflation stayed in its cage, coming in below 2% — later the Fed’s official target — for 17 straight months in 1997-99.

History repeats itself … maybe?

American productivity looked strong in the second and third quarters of 2025, and some economists attribute the improvements to the early adoption of AI; they see bigger gains and stronger economic growth ahead.

Others aren’t so sure.

Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at consulting firm RSM, wrote that the 2025 productivity improvements “are not because of artificial intelligence’’ but reflect investments in automation that companies made when they couldn’t find enough workers during the COVID-19 pandemic. “Those investments are starting to pay off,’’ Brusuelas wrote.

Economist Martin Baily, senior fellow emeritus at the Brookings Institution, believes it will take time for AI to have a big effect on the way companies do business and on the nation’s productivity.

“Companies don’t change that fast,” said Baily, chair of President Clinton’s Council of Economic Advisors during the boom era. “It’s expensive to change. It’s risky to change. The managers don’t necessarily understand the new technology that well. So they have to learn how to use it. They have to train their staff. All that stuff takes a long time.’’

A productivity boom can raise the economy’s speed limit — how fast it can grow without pushing prices higher. But it might not justify lower interest rates, Fed Gov. Michael Barr said in a speech last month.

Businesses will borrow to invest in AI, putting upward pressure on interest rates. Likewise, American workers and their families probably would save less and borrow more in anticipation of higher wages, the payoff for being more productive; that would put still more pressure on rates to rise.

Bottom line, Barr said: “The AI boom is unlikely to be a reason for lowering policy rates.’’

Even Greenspan’s Fed eventually came to the same conclusion, reversing course and starting to raise its benchmark rate in mid-1999, taking it from 4.75% to 6.5% in less than a year. (The rate Trump complains about now is around 3.6%.)

“Warsh and Bessent talk only about the dovish 1995/96 version of Greenspan; they overlook the hawkish 1999/2000 variant,’’ Perkins wrote.

Then and now

Many of Warsh’s potential future colleagues on the Fed’s interest-rate setting committee see the late-1990s experience differently than he does, setting up what could be a clash at the central bank if the Senate confirms Warsh as chair.

Austan Goolsbee, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, said last week that “the analogy to the late ‘90s is a little harder for me to understand.” Greenspan’s insight was that productivity gains meant the Fed could hold off on raising rates, not that it should slash them, Goolsbee noted.

“It wasn’t, ‘Should we cut rates because productivity growth is higher?’” he said.

The economic backdrop that awaits Warsh is also far less friendly than the one Greenspan enjoyed.

Greenspan was avoiding rate hikes at a time when the usually profligate U.S. government was running rare budget surpluses and didn’t need to borrow so desperately. Now, after a series of spending hikes and tax cuts, deficits are piling up year after year, and the Congressional Budget Office expects federal debt to hit a historic high of 120% of America’s gross domestic product by 2035.

Nor was productivity the only thing controlling inflation in the 1990s. Countries were lowering tariffs and dismantling trade barriers. Immigration was surging.

Now, due largely to Trump’s policies, notably his sweeping taxes on imports and his crackdown on immigration, the world is much different. “Trade barriers are going up,’’ Perkins wrote. “Globalization has given way to de-globalization.’’

“That benign era is clearly behind us,’’ said Michael Pearce, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics.

Wiseman writes for the Associated Press. AP writer Christopher Rugaber contributed to this report.

Buenos Aires, Argentina: Diego Nacasio, 43, works full time as a salesman at a large hardware store in Florencio Varela, a city in the greater Buenos Aires area. He says he doesn’t need a calendar to know what day of the month it is. By the time his salary and that of his wife, who also works full time in a shop, run out, it is around the 15th.

From then on, they look for extra jobs, find things to sell, use their credit cards, and get small loans to pay for basics, including food, until the next paycheques arrive.

“I have never experienced anything like this,” Nacasio told Al Jazeera. “Over the past 25 years, we have worked hard, and our jobs allowed us to build a house from scratch, buy a car and give our 17-year-old son a decent life. Now, we have better jobs than we did then, and still cannot even afford food for the whole month.”

“Living on credit puts you in a very dangerous cycle. It’s very easy to fall behind with payments, and then it is a matter of chasing your own tail. Most people I know are in the same situation. We are living in a constant state of stress and anxiety, and it feels like there’s no way out.”

Nacasio’s story has become increasingly common in Argentina, where nearly half of the people say they are using savings, selling belongings or borrowing money from banks or relatives to cover basics, according to a report by Argentina Grande based on the latest official figures available. Another report, from Fundacion Pensar, found that 63 percent of Argentines have cut down on activities or services to make ends meet.

“The current situation in Argentina is extremely concerning. It is particularly worrying to see that even people who have one or several jobs are getting loans not to buy a house, a car or white goods [appliances], but to buy food,” Violeta Carrera Pereyra, sociologist and researcher at the Argentina Grande Institute and one of the authors of the report, told Al Jazeera.

A tale of two cities

Argentina’s President Javier Milei, who took office in December 2023, says his austerity economic plan, based on achieving fiscal balance while building up reserves of United States currency through drastic cuts to public spending, has revitalised the economy and lifted millions of people out of poverty. He is backed by the International Monetary Fund, which, despite Argentina’s record levels of foreign loans, projects an economic growth of four percent in 2026 and 2027.

But a closer look at the figures shows a different, more sombre, picture.

While economic activity in Argentina has increased overall, growth has been uneven. In November 2025, the most recent month for which data is available, sectors such as banking and agriculture saw growth, but manufacturing and commerce experienced sharp declines, with many factories and shops closing due to falling demand. Consumption, particularly of food, has been falling, with a 12.5 percent drop reported by independent food retailers.

Then there’s inflation, a key variable that in Argentina needs to be kept at bay in order to access essential foreign credit.

While Milei’s shock economic plan managed to significantly reduce inflation from record-high figures when he first took office in late 2023, experts say his administration has taken some controversial measures to keep it low. This includes forcing salaries to remain stagnant and under the rate of inflation, and opening the country up to cheaper imports. These policies have left many without money to spend and forced thousands of factories and small businesses to close.

Critics also say inflation figures are not representative of real price fluctuations. The tool used to measure inflation in Argentina, a sample basket of goods people consume, was developed in 2004 and does not reflect current consumption patterns, including the percentage that items like electricity and fuel – two areas that have seen price hikes considerably higher than inflation – represent in people’s real spending habits.

Carrera Pereyra says that figures also show that the rapid changes in Argentina’s economy have widened inequalities.

“On the one hand, we see that some sectors are able to consume more, so we see a rise in the sales of properties, cars, motorbikes, some as a result of the opening of imports,” she said. “But on the other hand, items like food and medicines are decreasing. So, some people can buy more things than before, while others are struggling to put food on the table.”

An obstacle course

Many Argentines who spoke with Al Jazeera said that making ends meet has become nothing short of an obstacle course. Juggling multiple demanding jobs, selling used items such as clothing, borrowing from relatives, seeking shark loans and bargain hunting have become a regular part of daily life.

“Shopping for food has become a job in itself,”  said Veronica Malfitano, 43, a teacher and trade unionist, whose salary was cut by a quarter when Milei slashed public spending. “I team up with relatives or people I work with, and we buy in bulk. I use my credit card or get small loans. This month, for the first time, I have only paid the credit card’s minimum, something I had never done before. It’s all very stressful. Everybody I know is in the same situation.”

Research confirms Malfitano is not alone. Nearly half of supermarket purchases in Argentina are paid with credit cards, a record, according to recent official data.

Both borrowing and default rates have increased. It is estimated that around 11 percent of personal loans are unpaid, the highest rate since the Central Bank of Argentina began keeping records in 2010, according to Central Bank data.

Griselda Quipildor, 49, who lives with her husband, two daughters and two grandchildren, says that even though several people in her family work, money usually runs out by the 18th of every month and they have to start taking loans.

“At the start of the month, we pay debts, the bills and then the money runs out and we have to start borrowing again. It’s an endless vicious circle, one that is very difficult to get away from. We borrow from people we know and people we don’t know. It wasn’t like this before.”

Lucia Cavallero, an analyst, economics expert, and member of Movida Ciudad, told Al Jazeera that even though Argentina’s economic problems are longstanding, their impact on people’s homes is worsening.

“Debt has long been a serious problem in Argentina, and it has now become a crisis,” she said. “The proliferation of informal lenders has created a dangerous situation, leaving many people with no other options.”

In response, a political party has proposed a bill that would help people in lower-income sectors unify their loans and apply for a long-term payment plan at lower rates.

Cavallero says there are some positive aspects to the initiative, but that it largely misses the central point.

“It is good to see the political class recognising that debts are a serious problem for people,” she said. “However, this approach follows the logic of borrowing to pay off debt. While it may provide temporary relief, deeper structural changes are needed.

“Just as banks are bailed out, we are calling for families to be supported. A more sustainable solution is for wages to keep pace with the cost of the basic basket, so that people do not have to go into debt just to afford food,” Cavallero told Al Jazeera.

Despite all the challenges he and his family face, Nacasio says many people like himself still count themselves lucky.

“At least we own our house,” he said. “If we didn’t and we had to pay rent, I don’t know what we would do. I just need things to change, for us and for everybody. Things cannot continue like this.”

New York City, United States – For 14 years, BC Dodge built a career telling other people’s stories as a marketing and communications professional in the nonprofit sector in the Washington, DC area in the United States. But in late 2024, that stable career hit a speed bump.

He was laid off from his job amid a round of restructuring. The news landed without warning. One day he had a job, and the next he was sitting at home, staring at the numbers, trying to figure out how to keep paying the mortgage and putting food on the table.

He is married, and his partner is a teacher, but the math did not work. One salary might cover things for a little while, but not long enough to maintain long-term stability.

So he started applying for new work immediately. Over three months, he submitted 350 job applications. He got six interviews.

After months of searching, something moved.

He advanced in the hiring process for a Washington, DC–based nonprofit, making it far enough to sit across from senior leadership. It felt like he finally caught a break.

Then the ground shifted again. As Dodge was interviewing for a new job, Elon Musk, the world’s richest man, was advising the administration of US President Donald Trump on how to shrink the federal government, and that meant cutting funding to agencies that provide contracts and funds to swaths of nonprofit organisations around the country. The effects rippled outward, and Dodge was caught in the crosshairs.

Contracts were cancelled and funding streams dried up. Nonprofits that depend on government support had to pull back and scale down ambitions — those very same nonprofits from whom Dodge sought employment.

“I got a call from HR saying they weren’t going to hire for the position, and that all hiring was on hold. I couldn’t argue with them, because I’d been hearing the same thing from organisations I’d spoken to since I started applying. ‘We were relying on federal funds, and now they’re gone,’” Dodge said.

Then it was back to the drawing board. He began searching yet again, but this time with a cloud of uncertainty looming over the entire industry he works in. Dodge finally took what he could get — part-time work in his field. The pay was well below what he had been earning before, but he accepted it anyway. Some income, he reasoned, was better than none.

The result is underemployment. Underemployment can manifest in several ways, often when workers are seeking full-time work but can only find part-time positions, or when the jobs they work do not fully utilise their skills and training. It is generally associated with industries like restaurants or retail, but it also reaches into fields with fewer resources and shrinking opportunities, including the nonprofit sector, where jobs are increasingly precarious and full-time stability is harder to find because of the wave of government funding cuts in 2025.

The upshot is lower incomes for underemployed workers, sometimes below the cost of living or even pushing them into the ranks of the working poor.

Underemployment has been on the rise, according to the Economic Policy Institute, which has tracked the rate of underemployment since 1978. Today, 8 percent of the US population is underemployed, up 0.5 percent from 2024 and it is up 1.1 percent from 2023.

At the same time, many in the US are seeing their expenses increase.

The impact of tariffs has hit low-to-middle-income earners harder than others. Analysis from the Yale Budget Lab found that lower-income households are paying a higher percentage of their post-tax income on goods subject to tariffs as opposed to higher-income households, all while costs for necessities like healthcare are increasing.

Earlier this year, Congressional leaders failed to extend Affordable Care Act subsidies. Premiums increased by an average of 144 percent, according to analysis from the Kaiser Family Foundation.

“Some people have lost their jobs and found new ones that pay less, but others have kept their jobs, but their healthcare premiums have increased. Their electric bills have also gone up. Their salaries no longer cover basic living costs,” Jillian Hishaw, a personal bankruptcy lawyer in Charlotte, North Carolina, said.

She said that because of increased costs like these and a stalling job market, she is seeing an increase in inquiries about personal bankruptcy filings in efforts by potential clients not to lose their homes to foreclosure.

“In one day last week, 85 foreclosures were filed in Mecklenburg County [where Charlotte is located]. Foreclosures happen daily, but 85 in a single day is unusually high. Two years ago, the daily average was 10 to 20, but now filings are approaching triple digits each day,” Hishaw said.

Shrinking options

The surging economic pressures hit workers across various sectors, including financial and administrative services. An Ohio-based accountant who did not want his name to be published, has worked a patchwork of accounting and administrative jobs over the past few years. In March, he was laid off from a research organisation in central Ohio.

After months of searching, he found new work, but not as an accountant, and the pay falls far short of covering his cost of living.

“I’m working as a sales coordinator, which I really don’t want to be doing, but it was the only thing I could land with how bad things are. It’s not enough to live on,” he said.

The labour market is under strain. Layoffs reached more than 1.1 million in 2025, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, while job creation failed to keep pace, with just 584,000 jobs added. As a result, more workers are settling for underpaid or part-time work that does not meet basic living expenses, including Dodge and the accountant.

Michele Evermore, senior fellow at the National Academy of Social Insurance, says that economic uncertainty driven by tariffs and developments in artificial intelligence has put businesses across a wide set of sectors essentially on pause — maintaining the status quo or scaling back.

“People who are already at the margins are getting kicked out entirely, and that’s placing pressure on everyone who is clinging to a job,” Evermore told Al Jazeera.

In January, one of the key measures of underemployment, the number of people who work part-time for economic reasons, such as an inability to find full-time work or had their hours reduced, hit 4.9 million. It was a 453,000 decline from the month before, but is up 410,000 from this time last year, according to the January jobs report released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday.

Long-term unemployment jumped 386,000 from this time a year ago to 1.8 million, although it remains unchanged compared with the previous month.

The nonprofit sector has been hit particularly hard in the last year, losing 28,729 jobs in 2025, up sharply from 5,640 losses the year before, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

Like the Ohio accountant, Dodge has been searching for new opportunities since he lost his full-time role a year and a half ago. He has applied for 460 jobs and only landed a handful of interviews.

Working weekends, washing dishes

The market is only getting tighter. US employers cut more than 108,000 jobs in January, while employers only announced intentions to hire 5,300 new roles for the month, the lowest on record since Challenger, Gray & Christmas started tracking that in 2009.

“Employers aren’t wanting to make any big investments right now, including increasing salaries to their workforce,” Evermore, who served as a policy adviser in the US Labor Department during the administration of former US President Joe Biden, added.

In December, labour market turnover remained stagnant. Amid economic uncertainty and a slowdown in new job growth, many Americans are hanging on to the jobs they already have. Job openings fell to 6.5 million, down 386,000 from the previous month, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Job Openings and Labour Turnover Survey (JOLTS).

Hiring and separations, which include layoffs and firings, were unchanged. That followed November’s report, which similarly showed little movement in both new hiring and the number of workers leaving their jobs.

Combined, that means that for the underemployed, finding a new role, either part-time to augment their existing income, or to replace it altogether, is increasingly difficult for people like the accountant.

“I’m also working weekends at a friend’s cafe, washing dishes, and I’m still applying and interviewing for other opportunities. But it’s the same story, no offers. At the same time, I’m debating whether to switch professions or even go back to school, even though I already have a master’s degree,” he said.

That shared distress has also created an unlikely sense of camaraderie among those struggling to get by, even as the outlook remains bleak.

Dodge finds it in late-night scrolls through Reddit, watching strangers narrate versions of the same stalled search.

“I doomscroll a lot,” he said, “getting depressed about the state of politics and the global economy, and taking some solace in knowing I’m not the only one struggling to find viable employment after 12, 13, 14, even 15 months.”

For now, that recognition of others stuck in the same place, hitting the same walls, is enough to keep him moving forward, submitting applications and waiting for a response that might not even come.

The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office’s 10-year outlook projects worsening long-term United States federal deficits and rising debt, driven largely by increased spending, notably on Social Security, Medicare, and debt service payments.

Compared with the CBO’s analysis this time last year, the fiscal outlook, which was released on Wednesday, has deteriorated modestly.

The CBO said that the deficit for fiscal 2026 – President Donald Trump’s first full fiscal year in office – will be about 5.8 percent of GDP, about where it was in fiscal 2025, when the deficit was $1.775 trillion.

But the US deficit-to-GDP ratio will average 6.1 percent over the next decade, reaching 6.7 percent in fiscal 2036 – far above US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s goal to shrink it to about 3 percent of economic output.

Major developments over the last year are factored into the latest report, including Republicans’ tax and spending measure known as the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” higher tariffs, and the Trump administration’s crackdown on immigration, which includes deporting millions of immigrants from the US mainland.

As a result of these changes, the projected 2026 deficit is about $100bn higher, and total deficits from 2026 to 2035 are $1.4 trillion larger, while debt held by the public is projected to rise from 101 percent of GDP to 120 percent — exceeding historical highs.

Notably, the CBO says higher tariffs partially offset some of those increases by raising federal revenue by $3 trillion, but that also comes with higher inflation from 2026 to 2029.

Rising debt and debt service are important because repaying investors for borrowed money crowds out government spending on basic needs such as roads, infrastructure and education, which enable investments in future economic growth.

CBO projections also indicate that inflation does not hit the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target rate until 2030.

A major difference is that the CBO forecasts rely on significantly lower economic growth projections than the Trump administration, pegging 2026 real GDP growth at 2.2 percent on a fourth-quarter comparison basis, fading to an average of about 1.8 percent for the rest of the decade.

Trump administration officials in recent weeks have projected robust growth in the 3-4 percent range for 2026, with recent predictions that first-quarter growth could top 6 percent amid rising investments in factories and artificial intelligence data centres.

CBO’s forecasts assume that tax and spending laws and tariff policies in early December remain in place for a decade. The government’s fiscal year starts on October 1.

While revived investment tax incentives and bigger individual tax refunds provide a boost in 2026, the CBO said that this is attenuated by the drag from larger fiscal deficits and reduced immigration that slows the growth of the labour force.

Jonathan Burks, executive vice president of economic and health policy at the Bipartisan Policy Center said “large deficits are unprecedented for a growing, peacetime economy”, though “the good news is there is still time for policymakers to correct course.”

‘Urgent warning’

Lawmakers have recently addressed rising federal debt and deficits primarily through targeted spending caps and debt limit suspensions, as well as deploying “extraordinary measures” when the US is close to hitting its statutory spending limit, though these measures have often been accompanied by new, large-scale spending or tax policies that maintain high deficit levels.

And Trump, at the start of his second term, deployed a new “Department of Government Efficiency”, which set a goal to balance the budget by cutting $2 trillion in waste, fraud and abuse; however, budget analysts estimate that DOGE cut anywhere between $1.4bn to $7bn, largely through workforce firings.

Michael Peterson, CEO of the Peterson Foundation, said the CBO’s latest budget projection “is an urgent warning to our leaders about America’s costly fiscal path.”

“This election year, voters understand the connection between rising debt and their personal economic condition. And the financial markets are watching. Stabilising our debt is an essential part of improving affordability, and must be a core component of the 2026 campaign conversation.”

WALKING back from her daily shop Beth Maitland, 32, isn’t worried about traffic jams, beeping horns or the cost-of-living crisis.

She’s more concerned about a local elephant trying to steal her bag of fruit.

It’s Beth’s ‘new normal’ since fleeing Britain over twelve months ago to begin her new life in Thailand, where rent is a fifth of the price, a dinner out costs just two quid, her front garden is a beach and her backyard rice paddies overlooked by a mountain range.

Thailand is routinely voted one of the top twelve destinations for Brit tourists where the pound goes a long way.

It’s estimated 55,000 Brits, from backpackers to retirees, have chosen to bail out of Britain, trading cold, gloomy weather for the tropical paradise and beaches known as the Land of Smiles.

Relocations have soared by a staggering 255 per cent since 2018, driven by Thailand’s Long-Term Residence or LTR visa which offers 10-year residency with tax exemption.

Beth, a former NHS maternity support staffer moved from Plymouth, Devon to the island oasis of Koh Samui in southern Thailand in March last year.

Talking exclusively to The Sun, Beth revealed: “I rent a two-bedroom cottage in the jungle, there are rice fields on one side, jungle on the other and it’s 15 minutes to the beach. From the roof I can check out the surf or plan a mountain hike in the other direction.

“If I paid the price I was paying in the UK, which was £700 for a studio flat in Plymouth, I could get a four-bedroom house with five bathrooms, a pool and a garden on the island’s outskirts with elephants as neighbours.

“The first month converting pounds to Thai currency – the Baht – was a nightmare and so was finding the perfect place to live. 

“Now it’s like I have lived here all my life. I am always shocked at how cheap food, accommodation and transport is compared to Britain. 

“The cost of living is so cheap I eat out for lunch and dinner every day. I haven’t had a ready meal since I moved here.

“Everything except British food is cheaper. For the first time in a decade, I feel I have a positive future, can buy a home, and achieve my career goals.”

Millennial Beth grew up in Plymouth and loved surfing in the summer months when the weather was good enough. 

She spent the next seven years working twelve-hour shifts as a nursing home assistant in Exeter before spending six months backpacking in Australia and Asia.

“I felt inspired by the Asian culture but thought I’d never be able to work or move there.

“I came back home in December 2019 to miserable winter weather and started work as an NHS maternity support staffer.”

Brighter future

When Covid hit, Beth says she found herself re-examining her life.

“Working during lockdown for the NHS was a privilege but it took its toll. I lost friends and patients.”

When the cost-of-living crisis hit Beth felt overwhelmed by work and a feeling her future wouldn’t be the one she wanted if she stayed in Britain.

“After rent and bills were paid, I was saving no money at all. When I hit 30, I knew if I didn’t act, I’d been in the same place with no savings when I hit 40. I couldn’t let history repeat.

“The government wasn’t offering young people like me hope. My friends could only buy a house if their parents helped.

“Other friends were marrying and having children admitting that they felt the goals they wanted for their twenties were no longer possible.”

It was when two of her close friends left to become digital nomads in Thailand and Bali in January 2024 Beth was inspired to act, realising she had a choice – commit to miserable weather, rising prices and a job in the NHS which wasn’t offering career development, or take a gamble, pursue a new career and move to Asia herself.

“Many of my work colleagues were shocked,” she says. “They couldn’t comprehend moving overseas, let alone to Thailand.

“It was terrifying and exciting for me but having friends living and working there already kept me going.” 

Beth isn’t the only millennial making the life-changing decision to flee to a new country instead of settling down and concentrating on their career here.

I sometimes think I have a career and life whiplash at the speed and dramatic change which occurred

Beth

The Currencies Direct’s British Expat Report 2024 revealed nearly 40 per cent of Brits are considering moving overseas due to the cost of living while a fifth, like Beth, feel a fresh start in another culture would be beneficial for their wellbeing and mental health.

And it’s the young who are leading the great British brain drain, and more than a third of people under 24 are planning to leave Britain in the next five years. 

Dramatic change

After a tip from a friend based in Thailand, Beth applied online as a full-time travel manager running group tours.

Just two Zoom interviews later and she was offered the job and within two months was living and working in Thailand.

Beth says even she was shocked by how quickly her life changed.

“I sometimes think I have a career and life whiplash at the speed and dramatic change which occurred.”

She explains: “I used to work part-time at holiday camps during my teenage years. As a maternity support worker, I was good at helping people before, during and after labour with all ranges of problems. 

Now two weeks of every month Beth travels with 30 holiday makers, overseeing their organised tour of Thailand’s islands and regional areas.

“Imagine running a creche on wheels for people of all ages and from all different countries on their first overseas holiday. I love it,” she says. 

“There is never a dull moment. People want to know if we are there yet, where the meet up point is, what the Wi-Fi code is, if they need sunblock, can they borrow a charger and when we are stopping for food. Or the loo.

“I must be a mother, nurse and organiser. I tell people making kittens and squirrels walk in a straight line is often easier.”

Beth then gets two weeks off and either spends time at her rented cottage or using it as a base to travel to other Asian countries.

She pays £150 a month rent for the two-bedroom countryside cottage which includes her water, electricity and air conditioning, as well as use of communal pool and gym.

“There are ten cottages and it’s full of long-term Brits based here. My phone bill is £20 a month and I share it with a friend.”

Beth says she now rarely cooks because the price of food at local restaurants and roadside food carts is so cheap.

My diet has improved dramatically. I haven’t had a microwave meal since I moved here. It’s fresh fruit and vegetables every day

Beth

“I have fruit or cereal for breakfast. I eat lunch and dinner out. It costs £2 for lunch or £3 for dinner. I usually grab stir fry, curry, Thai soup or rice dishes as well as a dessert, usually a sorbet, fruit platter or ice-cream.

“My diet has improved dramatically. I haven’t had a microwave meal since I moved here. It’s fresh fruit and vegetables every day.”

Cheap living

Grocery shopping isn’t the weekly trek to the supermarket like it is in Britain.

“I go to the local markets and buy bags of fruit and fresh meat if I plan to cook, which isn’t often.

“A pint of milk costs the equivalent of 56p, a large loaf of white bread is around 90p, a dozen eggs are 90p, a half a kilo of red meat is £7, chicken is just £1.85 a kilo. Cheese is the most expensive item costing £7 to £8 for half a kilo.”

Beth admits she does miss her British staples and those that are available come at a price.

“HP sauce costs £6 a bottle, Heinz Baked Beans are an eye watering £4.50 while a Lindt chocolate bar sets you back a fiver,” she says.

“I usually grab bread, milk, some cheese and a huge bag of vegetables and fruit for a fiver. Fortunately, good quality tea bags only cost £1 for a box here.”

Beth says wine is expensive costing £12 to £15 a bottle but local beers cost £1-£1.20 for a half litre bottle and cocktails are between £2 and £3.50, depending on the spirits you choose.

“If you go to a five-star hotel you will pay more. 

“Gym membership is £22 a month and a trip to a foreign cinema is £5.60 if you are missing home.

“I had to hunt down a good cafe for a cappuccino and it costs £1.70 for a catch up with my mates. I was paying £5.60 for a posh coffee at Starbucks in the UK, I can’t believe it.”

Beth says she doesn’t need a car and uses the local car or bike service called ‘Grab’, which is similar to Uber, to book travel online.

“A bike, which means I am a pillion passenger, is 50p and a taxi is around 78p a mile.

The standard of health care is better than Britain

Beth

“When I first moved here, I refused to use the motorbike ‘cab’ – now it’s second nature.

“If you do own or rent a car it costs 96p a litre to fill up the tank. A new Toyota Corolla sedan costs on average £19k new.”

Beth says if you have children private preschool starts at £275 a month per child and the private international primary school begins at £4,500 a year.

“I was stunned by the brilliant quality of healthcare available here in Thailand. When there was no delay to see a dentist or doctor I was gobsmacked. 

“The standard of health care is better than Britain.” 

Beth recently paid £50 to see a dental hygienist and £150 for a tooth extraction and filling. Back home I’d either be forced to wait one or two years to get an NHS dentist or pay more than £500 plus for the dental work.

Dinner splurges

According to financial website livingcost.org, Britain is ranked as the 11th most expensive country in the world while Thailand is the 114th most expensive.

Beth told us: “The cost of living is a lot cheaper – from shopping, to petrol, accommodation to food.

“If my friends and I went out for a splurge dinner, that costs us around a tenner for food and drinks all night plus the cab home.”

Beth usually buys her clothes at the local market but if she wants a retail hit H&M have stores in Thailand.

“If it gets hot, I peel off a layer. It can get cold during the equivalent of the winter months, and I pop on a sweater.

“It’s the wet season that causes problems but you learn to keep umbrellas handy.”

According to Beth, Thailand is now extra popular on the backpacking must-visit list with marijuana being legalised.

I feel calmer, more centred, and less stressed living here than I did in Britain

Beth

“Holiday makers are often shocked that pot cafes exist and pot is legally sold here,” she said.

Many of my thirty-something friends are moving here because Thailand is well known for its amazing spiritual and mental health clinics and holidays.

“It’s a very spiritual country. For people in their thirties moving here often means setting up wellbeing businesses or mediation and other fitness styled retreats.

“I feel calmer, more centred, and less stressed living here than I did in Britain,” she said.

“Everyone is meditating or trying a new yoga or healthy living trend.

“It’s a way many Brits not only embrace a new way of living, but a new career counselling or operating healing centres others move here to set up online businesses.”

Beth loves her new career path and says she is saving to buy a property on Koh Samui. 

“You can spend £70k for a basic three-bedroom apartment with four bathrooms, a communal pool and a countryside view. 

“When you consider that wouldn’t get me a static caravan in Britain it’s a brilliant option.”

Beth admits she misses her family and friends.

“I was homesick for the first six weeks. I try to come back to Britain once or twice a year.

“Once you make a few friends, join the various social media groups for expats and get yourself into a routine it becomes a new normal.

“I have hope again. I thought I would never feel this way. It turns out sun, surf and wrangling tourists is the perfect tonic.”