inaugural season

Welcome back to the Times of Troy newsletter, where USC’s loss to Oregon on Saturday has left me grappling with what it means to have a successful season in this day and age of college football.

USC will not be going to the College Football Playoff. It’ll be the fourth straight year under Lincoln Riley that USC is left out of the field. In that time, Indiana — which last won a conference title in 1967 — will have twice been a Playoff team. Assuming Ohio State, Indiana and Oregon all make this year’s field as expected, the Big Ten’s current membership will have accounted for 19 bids to the Playoff since it began in 2014 … none from USC.

There’s no getting around these facts. USC expects to compete for national titles every year, but in four seasons with Riley as coach, it hasn’t even made it to the dance floor. That’s not what USC was promised when it handed Riley a massive $110-million contract.

If USC beats UCLA next week, as expected, it will finish this season 9-3. That’s better than most rational observers would have expected — myself included. Oddsmakers had USC’s win total set at 7 1/2. I wrote in this space that I thought USC would win eight regular season games, but the best case was 10 and a Playoff bid. USC was within striking distance of that scenario. It fell just short.

Riley would like for you to focus on how narrow that gap is.

“We’re right there,” the coach said again Saturday. But no matter how many plays away USC might be from a Playoff bid in 2025 or four straight national titles in his tenure, Riley’s repeated assurances that this is the case have ceased to mean much to those he thinks he’s assuring. At some point, USC needs to stop being close and actually break through.

It took a step closer to that this season. There’s no shame in losing to three teams ranked in the top 21 of the CFP rankings. USC beat all the teams it was supposed to beat. It won on the road at Nebraska, Riley’s first road win over a .500 team since 2022. And it blew just one fourth-quarter lead, not five like last season.

In the 16 years since Pete Carroll left USC, the Trojans have reached the nine-win mark in the regular season just five times. With a win next week, Riley will have reached that mark twice in four years.

But without a Playoff bid, does a nine-win season really mean anything anymore? Is it possible for USC — or any Power Four team, for that matter — to miss the field and still view its season as a success?

If you thought that USC was going to make the College Football Playoff, you are no doubt disappointed. Most people, though, didn’t. And perhaps the fact that no one is surprised at the way this went is why it’s hard for anyone to feel excited about a 9-3 finish and a second-rate bowl game.

USC took a step forward this season. It wasn’t the leap many fans were hoping for. But it was a step. The reality is this was never a team that was going to seriously compete for a national title. It didn’t have enough talent.

Riley didn’t necessarily do USC any favors in that regard. Progress aside, he simply hasn’t done enough to make anyone, his bosses included, feel good about where next season might go.

There are reasons for optimism. Riley will have the No. 1 recruiting class at his disposal, along with several young returners USC will be counting on to make a leap. But he’ll also have to contend with a schedule that includes Ohio State, Oregon, Washington, Indiana and Penn State.

The road to the Playoff will be as difficult as it has ever been. But that is the bar that Riley must now clear. And by this time next season, we should have a pretty good idea of whether Riley is capable of clearing it.

Going polling

I want to hear what you think about this season as a whole. Do you consider USC’s season to be a success, even without a Playoff bid?

Yes?
No?

Click here to vote in our survey.

Tanook Hines catches a pass thrown by third-string quarterback Sam Huard on a fake punt against Northwestern.

(Mark J. Terrill / Associated Press)

—The leaping penalty was a major turning point in the loss to Oregon. But should it have been a penalty? The flag on linebacker Desman Stephens negated what would’ve been a key missed field goal by Oregon, and afterward, Riley explained that Stephens “panicked” and did something they don’t teach. But NBC rules analyst Terry McAulay, who you may remember from his disdain for USC’s fake punt ploy, posited on social media that it was actually a totally legal play. McAulay wrote that Stephens “leaps into the gap” on the play and “the fact that part of his body is over part of an opponent does not violate the rule,” which states that a player cannot leap into the plane directly above the frame of an opponent. We should note USC lost this game by two touchdowns, so reversing that one wouldn’t have made the difference. That said, I will be curious to ask Riley for his take on Tuesday.

—The offensive line injuries finally caught up to USC. When center Kilian O’Connor went down with what appeared to be another knee injury Saturday and returned to the sideline on crutches, with his leg mobilized, it felt like a foreboding sign. A hobbled J’Onre Reed struggled in his place. Up against a stout Oregon front seven, the Trojans’ line was facing an uphill battle, and it never made much headway. USC ran for just 52 yards, its worst mark in two years. Oregon barely had to blitz — it rushed with four on 27 of 31 dropbacks. This was simply a better defensive line beating up on a more limited offensive line. But USC’s offensive line showed a lot of heart over the course of the last six weeks, and there are plenty of reasons to feel optimistic. USC returns everyone in the room except for Reed and has several freshmen whose progress has impressed the staff this season.

—Tanook Hines can be a star as soon as next season. You saw once again what Hines is capable of as he leaped into the air to reel in Makai Lemon’s pass and tapped his toes in the end zone on the way down. The raw ability is apparent, and his propensity for big plays has been terrific for a freshman. The question now is whether he can emerge as a more consistent threat that’s leaned on to do more than just make highlight catches in traffic. Lemon is leaving for the NFL after this season, and while USC will surely try to convince Ja’Kobi Lane to stay, my guess is he’ll be ready to go, too, depending on his draft grade. That leaves Hines and whichever star transfer wideout(s) general manager Chad Bowden unearths in the portal to lead the receiving corps. Hines should be a big part of those plans, no matter what, and if he makes the leap, he could be in for a huge sophomore season.

—USC won’t be going to the Playoff, but there will be a consolation bowl appearance. Assuming the Trojans can win next week against UCLA, they’re most likely headed to the Alamo Bowl in San Antonio on Dec. 30. The Holiday Bowl on Jan. 2 is also in play. USC has played in the Holiday Bowl four times in the last 12 years. It has never appeared in the Alamo Bowl.

—After a brutal loss to Notre Dame, USC women’s basketball faces a critical stretch ahead. The Trojans had a chance to win in South Bend with a layup after a frustrating fourth quarter, but missed it, and Hannah Hidalgo ended the game on the other end. They have four games between now and a Dec. 13 matchup with Connecticut at Galen Center, and they’ll need that time to iron things out. Kennedy Smith needs to be more consistent on offense, and the frontcourt remains a mystery. The next two weeks should help answer some pertinent questions.

Olympic sports spotlight

With two games left in its regular season slate, USC’s women’s volleyball team matched its season-high for wins under coach Brad Keller with its 24th victory on Saturday. It should surpass that mark this week.

It’s been a stellar season so far for the Trojans, who are tied for fourth in the Big Ten. The question now is just how far they can go in the postseason. Right now, according to ESPN’s college volleyball bracketology, USC is predicted to be a fourth seed.

In case you missed it

Plaschke: Lincoln Riley should be on hot seat after USC flops again in big game

No. 15 USC’s College Football Playoff hopes shattered in loss to No. 7 Oregon

No. 11 USC can’t protect double-digit lead in road loss to No. 24 Notre Dame

USC vs. Oregon: Lincoln Riley embraces pressure of playing for a playoff bid

How USC’s transfer portal approach has fueled its push to edge of playoff berth

Hot coaching commodity Lane Kiffin has a tough decision 12 years after USC fired him

What I’m watching this week

Will (Noah Schnapp) and Vecna (Jamie Campbell Bower) come face to face in Season 5 of “Stranger Things.”

(Netflix)

We’ve waited over three years, if you can believe it, for a new season of “Stranger Things.” So long that none of the kids in the show are even kids anymore. (Two of them have actually become rock stars in the meantime.)

But I’m one of those who have been eagerly awaiting the series conclusion, and finally, that day has come. We still only get Volume 1 from Netflix on Wednesday. But that should be enough to hold us off until late December, when the remaining episodes drop.

Until next time …

That concludes today’s newsletter. If you have any feedback, ideas for improvement or things you’d like to see, email me at [email protected], and follow me on X at @Ryan_Kartje. To get this newsletter in your inbox, click here.

Welcome back to the Times of Troy newsletter. Hopefully, by the time you read this, you will have finally dried off. Or maybe it’s still pouring rain where you are. But whatever the weather, things are looking pretty sunny for Lincoln Riley and USC right now.

The Trojans are now just two wins away from a trip to the College Football Playoff. But the bigger statement Saturday, while rallying in the rain to beat a team like Iowa, wasn’t so much about this season, but rather the program’s trajectory after next week’s marquee matchup at No. 8 Oregon.

Riley said later that he sensed this shift at halftime, just as the team’s Playoff hopes were hanging by a thread. His Trojans were trailing Iowa, 21-10, once again having succumbed to the same slow start that plagued them the last two games. They’d been outplayed, outworked, outsmarted. The run defense was awful. The offense was stuck in the mud.

Still, as Riley looked out over the locker room, he saw something he hadn’t last season or the season before that.

“You could tell from the look in their eye,” Riley said. “I felt very strongly we were going to come back out and make a run.”

We saw it for ourselves in the second half. USC’s defense shut out Iowa from that point on. It was the third game in a row in which the Trojans allowed three points or fewer after half. The offense came roaring back, scoring 16 unanswered points. The comeback felt almost run-of-the-mill in the moment. As if falling behind was just a part of the plan all along.

That it came in the pouring rain, against a team whose style is so quintessentially Big Ten, made it particularly meaningful.

“If there ever was one, that was a culture win,” Riley said. “Our team’s resilience, their response at halftime … we just keep coming, we have all year.”

Think of how different that feels from this time last season, when it was a foregone conclusion that USC would fold in the fourth quarter. Now, instead, there’s a sense of swagger and confidence that hasn’t been there since before Caleb Williams hurt his hamstring in the 2022 Pac-12 championship game.

Even that 2022 season, as magical as it may have been, was propped up by a Heisman winner at quarterback, one capable of willing his team to wins unlike anyone before him at USC. Riley has said on several occasions that that team, coming off a 4-8 campaign, overachieved relative to where the program actually stood.

Two frustrating seasons followed. There were times, during that stretch, where it seemed USC found something. But nothing felt quite as earned as Saturday’s breakthrough in the second half.

Eric Gentry was there for that first season under Riley. The senior linebacker has been an emotional leader ever since and a good barometer of where things stand in the locker room.

“It’s win or go home right now, and there’s no go home,” Gentry said after the game. “We’ve got to win. I think the whole team is understanding of what the culture is. Just fight to the last second, not feel like something bad is going to happen.

“Coach [Riley] said: ‘Don’t hope for [anything]. Make it happen.’”

Hope won’t be enough to win at Oregon, where it hasn’t won in 14 years. It will have to iron out its issues against the run to have any shot against the Ducks, who boast the best rushing attack in the Big Ten. It will need to start faster on both sides of the ball. And it will have to play up to its potential on the road against a very good team, which it hasn’t done … umm … ever during Riley’s tenure.

That’s not to say this can’t happen. (Which I may have suggested in this space three months ago.) If not for a game-winning field goal in the rain, Oregon would have lost to Iowa last week. But very few people will give USC a shot at Autzen, for reasons that are totally rational and understandable.

College football, though, is rarely ever rational or understandable. If USC is somehow able to upend Oregon, on the road, it would be the biggest win at the school not just since Riley started as coach, but well before that.

No matter what happens, we’ve seen enough this season to say that the team and the program are in a better place than they were a year ago. The question now is whether they’re ready to take that final step.

Makai Lemon

(Eric Thayer/Los Angeles Times)

—Waymond Jordan was listed as “questionable” against Iowa. Could that hint at a return vs. Oregon? When Jordan underwent surgery last month, the hope was that his injury would only keep him out for four to six weeks. We’re basically at five-week mark right now, and by next weekend, will be near the end of that original timeline. Getting Jordan back was for this game was always a priority, and while King Miller has done great in his stead, Jordan was one of the best backs in America when he went down. His potential return would be huge news for USC’s offense. Some of this disparity is a factor of playing better defenses, but since Jordan departed the win over Michigan, USC’s offense has averaged just over six yards per play in its last four games, down from 8.3 yards in the previous six games with him.

—Give Makai Lemon the Biletnikoff already. How much more does anyone need to see to be convinced that Lemon is the best receiver in college football? Saturday was the third time in six weeks that Lemon has had 10 or more catches. And the afternoon started with Iowa double-teaming him. His leaping grab over the middle, as an Iowa defender knocked his legs out from under him, was truly something to behold. “He’s a fearless player,” Riley said. “Always has been.” But his game has gone to another level as a junior. I expect he’ll be a primary focus of Oregon’s secondary next week, which should open up opportunities for the rest of USC’s receiving corps.

Jazzy Davidson controls the ball against DeAvion Wilson of New Mexico State earlier this month.

(Ronald Martinez / Getty Images)

—The USC women need time. Their schedule doesn’t exactly allow for it. Without JuJu Watkins, the Trojans are still trying to figure out their identity. They had no shot keeping up with No. 2 South Carolina on Saturday shooting 7% from deep. Jazzy Davidson is still getting the hang of things, just three games into her true freshman season, while USC’s frontcourt was pretty much non-existent against the Gamecocks. I agree with Lindsay Gottlieb that tests like this one, even when failed, help a team get better. But three of the Trojans’ next eight games come against top-25 teams, including a matchup with No. 1 Connecticut.

—Rodney Rice is better than advertised. When Eric Musselman put his roster together for Year 2 at USC, it wasn’t the plan for Rice to fully take on primary point guard duties. Freshman Alijah Arenas was presumed to be USC’s primary ballhandler. But his injury left Musselman with no choice but to trust Rice. And boy, has he delivered on that trust. Rice turned in a triple-double Friday in a win over Illinois State. But it’s his command of USC’s offense that was especially encouraging. He makes others better, which is going to be critical if the Trojans hope to be a tournament team this season.

—AD Jen Cohen laid out her perspective on non-conference scheduling in her State of Troy address. She never said the words “Notre Dame,” but the message might as well have been addressed to Irish athletic director Pete Bevacqua. Cohen wants to play the game in the first month of the season, as we’ve reported in this newsletter. In her letter to fans, she pointed out that no other Big Ten teams in the last two years have played a non-conference road game after Week 4. “Intentionally making our road to the CFP significantly more difficult than our Big Ten peers does not align with our goal to win championships,” Cohen wrote. That might make some fans bristle, but it’s the same sentiment that Riley has expressed for the last two years.

—Here’s what Cohen said on the Big Ten’s proposed private equity plans. In the same address, Cohen gave her first public comments on the private equity plan that USC and Michigan currently remain against. She didn’t reject the idea of a private equity deal outright, but noted that the school, in any deal, would need to consider USC’s “long-term value and flexibility” versus the benefit of a short-term payout. But the payout itself is part of the problem: USC is slated to get less than not just Michigan and Ohio State, but also Penn State. I still don’t see USC budging on its issue with that disparity, which could amount to something like a $10 million difference, per On3’s reporting. That’s led to some alarm bells about USC going independent. But there’s no reason to think we’re anywhere close to that. Let’s pump the brakes.

—You may have noticed that the Sams made another number change. Punter Sam Johnson and third-string quarterback Sam Huard were both listed as No. 0 this week, after both deceptively wore No. 80 a week ago. Watching USC line up for a punt this week, it dawned on me another brilliant layer to USC’s controversial fake punt ploy. From now on, every team the Trojans play will have to think to themselves, “Is that actually the punter?” Whether you thought USC’s ploy was bush league or not, Riley has only reaped benefits since. Though, maybe it’s no coincidence that Johnson’s first punt this week was a 24-yard shank. Karma? Perhaps.

In case you missed it

No. 8 USC can’t pull off a comeback this time in loss to No. 2 South Carolina

Plaschke: USC keeps its playoff hopes alive with downpour of toughness against Iowa

No. 17 USC shuts out No. 21 Iowa in second half of thrilling, rain-soaked comeback

Rodney Rice makes history with a triple-double in USC win over Illinois State

Lincoln Riley urges USC players to embrace pressure during high-stakes game against Iowa

‘She could do everything.’ Jazzy Davidson’s closest friends know she can be elite at USC

Can USC’s defense find its stride during a crucial, final stretch?

What I’m watching this week

Cynthia Erivo is Elphaba and Ariana Grande is Glinda in “Wicked: For Good.”

(Giles Keyte / Universal Pictures)

After waiting patiently for a year since the first installment, “Wicked: For Good” hits theaters this weekend, and I am counting down the days.

The first movie was tremendous, and the second has maybe the best song from the original musical (the name of which just happens to be in the title of the film). Early reviews suggest that Ariana Grande is given a lot more to do dramatically in this film, and I, for one, am here for it after her stellar performance the first time around.

With the early kickoff in Eugene, I may have no choice but to go see it that night — and thus, incur the wrath of my wife, who’s also waiting to see it, later.

Until next time …

That concludes today’s newsletter. If you have any feedback, ideas for improvement or things you’d like to see, email me at [email protected], and follow me on X at @Ryan_Kartje. To get this newsletter in your inbox, click here.

Welcome back to the Times of Troy newsletter, where we’ve spent the last 48 hours thinking far too much about a fake punt from the second quarter of Friday’s 38-17 win over Northwestern. The play was diabolical. The fallout since has made it all the more fascinating, transforming a random trick play into a sort of college football Rorschach test.

So let me take you back to Friday night, with USC facing fourth and six near midfield. Lincoln Riley sent out his punt team. Nothing seemed out of the ordinary.

Every soul in that stadium not on USC’s sideline assumed the player lined up to punt, wearing the USC punter’s usual No. 80 uniform, was Sam Johnson … the punter. In part because USC is one of the few schools still without names on the back of their jerseys. But then the purported punter cocked back to throw. Right away, as he completed the pass in the face of pressure, I clocked that this No. 80 was left-handed. And I could’ve sworn Johnson punts with his right foot.

So I consulted the game-day roster. And wouldn’t you know it — listed next to Johnson with the same No. 80 was Sam Huard, the Trojans’ third-string quarterback. Later, Riley confirmed Huard had been listed as No. 80 on the official roster for three weeks.

“You guys gotta pay attention,” he said. “I’m glad none of y’all put it on Twitter.”

He’s right. None of us in the press box noticed that one number on the roster amid the 100-plus printed in tiny type on our game-day card had changed. But changing a third-string quarterback’s number weeks ahead of time to pull off a first-half fake punt against a middling Northwestern team hadn’t been on my bingo card.

USC also didn’t put the change on its online roster. Nor did USC’s sports information department update the weekly game notes with Huard’s new number. Both of which probably would’ve made the stunt feel a little less bush league.

“It hadn’t shown up anywhere else,” Northwestern coach David Braun said of the number change after, “but they did legally submit that. It was on the game-day roster that was here present at the Coliseum. The lesson I’ve learned from that for the rest of my career is that we will go over that with a fine-tooth comb, and look for any of those potential issues.”

But while his fake punt probably didn’t make Riley any new friends in the conference, I don’t believe it broke any rules either.

The Big Ten and I don’t have the same interpretation. Though, the statement the conference issued Sunday morning was especially vague.

The Big Ten pointed to NCAA Football Playing Rule 9, Section 2, Article 2, labeled “Unfair Tactics,” which states that “two players playing the same position may not wear the same number during the game.”

It then notes that “if a foul was identified when [Johnson] entered the game as a punter, a Team Unsportsmanlike Conduct penalty would have been assessed resulting in a 15-yard penalty from the previous spot.”

So if the penalty had been called, it would have been on the ensuing drive, when Johnson would’ve punted from USC’s 41-yard line, as opposed to Northwestern’s 44. But that’s all the statement really says.

You can feel how badly the Big Ten wants to chastise USC for what it probably feels is a play unbecoming of the conference. Most people, I assume, feel that way. But what the conference very notably doesn’t say here is that a foul was committed. Or that a penalty should have been called.

That’s because, in this case, I’m sure Riley could argue about semantics until he turns blue in the face.

The number change was technically within the rules. And technically, there’s no rule that a quarterback can’t line up 13 yards behind the center. We’re only assuming, in this case, that the player is a punter. Players line up in different positions all the time.

College football coaches have been manipulating rules like this for the better part of a century. Remember last season when Oregon coach Dan Lanning purposefully put 12 men on the field to drain the clock on Ohio State’s comeback attempt?

That felt a little bush league at the time too. But you can’t tell me that Lanning’s and Riley’s ploys weren’t also kind of brilliant.

And really, if you think about it, that kind of captures Riley in a nutshell. Intermittently brilliant. Consistently brash. And definitely not here to make friends.

What’s happening with Notre Dame?

Since USC made an amended offer to Notre Dame in August to maintain the series for another two seasons, there hasn’t been much obvious movement in negotiations. It’s not hard to figure out why. USC has no interest in budging on its current offer, and Notre Dame has no incentive to cave to its rival’s demands … yet.

However, the Irish did recently make a notable change to their schedule that creates some flexibility in 2026. Notre Dame confirmed last week that its road game against Florida State was struck from next season’s schedule, which leaves a pretty gaping vacancy that USC would fit into quite nicely.

I still believe the rivals will come to an agreement. Right now there’s no official deadline for scheduling the game. But it’s safe to assume that USC would like to know its nonconference slate before rolling out its season-ticket plans for next season. That’s in January, less than two months away.

—Could the Big Ten really force through its $2-billion private equity deal without USC and Michigan’s support? Yahoo’s Ross Dellenger reported Sunday that the other 16 Big Ten schools are discussing a plan to move forward without USC and Michigan, both of whom made clear they’d vote against the proposed plan to sell a 10% stake of the conference to UC Investments. This, to put it nicely, is a pretty bold gambit from commissioner Tony Petitti. To put it less nicely, I find it patently insane. When the conversation started around a potential private equity deal, the Big Ten told its members it wanted consensus. And now, after that didn’t work out his way, Petitti is just going to move the goalposts? Big Ten sources who spoke to Dellenger had the gall to suggest that USC and Michigan could “risk their future within the conference beyond 2036.” L-O-L. As if the Big Ten’s media or corporate partners — or the private equity fund investing — would be cool with dropping two of the conference’s three biggest brands. USC’s stance hasn’t changed. And it shouldn’t, no matter what sort of toothless plan the conference concocts from here.

—USC’s defense is starting to make the right adjustments. Which was D’Anton Lynn’s strength last season. In one of my first newsletters last season, I wrote about how Lynn’s superpower as an inexperienced defensive coordinator was his ability to make adjustments. That wasn’t happening early this season, as USC’s defense looked lost in the second half in losses to Notre Dame and Illinois. But Lynn seems to have found his stride again. In each of the last two weeks, USC’s defense has given up just a field goal in the second half. Northwestern managed only 103 second-half yards, while Nebraska had 106. The ability to clamp down after halftime could come in handy over the next few weeks. We’ll see if it sticks.

—Riley shut down rumblings of him considering other jobs. The report in question was less an actual report than a juicy bit dropped in with no explanation at the end of a podcast. But when asked about it Friday, Riley suggested it had no merit. “You guys know what I sacrificed to come here,” he said. “I’m where I need to be.” Reassurances from coaches are historically unreliable. But let’s think about this logically: Riley hasn’t really done much at USC to warrant Louisiana State or Florida making him an even larger offer with a friendlier deal than the one he has. This feels more to me like the work of an agent seeking to get his client more money. Riley just happens to have recently gotten new representation with Wasserman.

—The Southeastern Conference is dominating the Big Ten when it comes to TV ratings. According to new data from Nielsen, eight of the 10 most-watched teams in college football this season are from the SEC, while Ohio State is the only Big Ten school on the list. That might seem surprising on its face. But the conference hasn’t had many big- games, and its piecemeal media setup, with games on different networks, doesn’t help. But ultimately, TV ratings don’t matter much. The Big Ten media rights deal pays out more money to its member schools, and that’s all that really matters.

—JuJu Watkins is now part-owner of a women’s soccer franchise. Watkins announced last week that she would join former USC quarterback Caleb Williams as an investor in the Boston Legacy Football Club. She’s the first college athlete to invest in a women’s pro franchise, another accomplishment you can add to her already stellar portfolio.

Olympic sports spotlight

USC announced late last week that Galen Center will be sold out for Sunday’s much-anticipated match against No. 1 Nebraska, which means more than 10,000 packing USC’s arena for a women’s volleyball game.

That says a lot about how far women’s college volleyball has come in recent years, and USC is on a hot streak, having won eight matches in a row. The Cornhuskers are the best team in the sport and haven’t lost all season. Women’s college volleyball is exploding in popularity, and Sunday should be one of the most anticipated matches of the Big Ten calendar.

In case you missed it

Jazzy Davidson powers No. 18 USC to thrilling upset of No. 9 North Carolina State

With one big hit, Jayden Maiava gets on track and delivers No. 19 USC past Northwestern

Old soul Makai Lemon never takes his eye off the prize — helping USC reach the CFP

Keith Browner, former USC linebacker and member of a large NFL family, dies at 63

USC walk-on Kaylon Miller gets his moment at right guard: ‘You just have to be ready’

Without JuJu Watkins, USC basketball holds on to hopes of NCAA title contention

What I’m watching this week

Rachel Sennott and Odessa A’zion in HBO’s “I Love LA.”

(Kenny Laubbacher / HBO)

“I Love LA” might seem like standard HBO comedy fare on the surface. Because it mostly is. Rachel Sennott, who also wrote the show, plays Maia, a twentysomething reconnecting with friends in Los Angeles and finding her way after moving from New York.

A good group-hang comedy is great feel-good TV, and this show has some potential in that department. Plus, it’s willing to poke fun at L.A. and its Gen Z influencer culture, which I can appreciate. I’m not totally sold just yet. But I’m willing to keep watching.

Until next time …

That concludes today’s newsletter. If you have any feedback, ideas for improvement or things you’d like to see, email me at [email protected], and follow me on X at @Ryan_Kartje. To get this newsletter in your inbox, click here.

Welcome back to the Times of Troy newsletter, where we’re still struggling with how to view USC’s 21-17 win at Nebraska. On one hand, USC gutted out a hard-earned road victory, just its second true road win outside of L.A. since 2023, with a stingy defensive stand in the second half. On the other, USC’s offense was out of sorts, its quarterback had the worst start of his tenure and its defense was run over for the third time in four games.

No matter your perspective, this much is indisputable: USC is 6-2, bowl eligible and in prime position to be 8-2 heading to Eugene in late November. Remember, the Trojans were 4-5 at this time last year.

But after flying back west for the final time this regular season, we’re going to take a brief break from football to alert you that college basketball season, believe it or not, is about to begin. And both of USC’s teams enter the season on fascinating and uncertain terms.

Let’s start first with the men’s team and Eric Musselman, who thought he’d have a five-star freshman to help springboard his program to relevance in Year 2. But the injury to Alijah Arenas has undoubtedly altered that trajectory. What we don’t know now is how much and for how long.

That’s just the beginning of the questions facing USC. Here are three others …

1. Who’s going to play point guard?

You may remember this same query from this time last season, when USC entrusted the role to Desmond Claude, who was a good playmaker, but not a great floor general. He turned the ball over nearly four times per game.

Arenas was expected to be the primary ballhandler. But with him out, it’ll be some combination of Rodney Rice, Chad Baker-Mazara, Jordan Marsh and Jerry Easter sharing ballhandling duties. None have any extensive experience as a floor general. Marsh has been a pleasant surprise in practice, but was more of a pure scorer at North Carolina Asheville.

Rice will have a lot on his shoulders already. And that’s not considering his actual shoulder, which has held him out for much of the preseason. He’ll need someone else to step up to help.

2. How much better is USC’s frontcourt?

When USC played its two exhibition games last month, opposing coaches couldn’t believe how much 7-foot-5 center Gabe Dynes affected the game defensively. Dynes was arguably USC’s best player in the preseason, and he wasn’t even expected to start in the Trojans’ frontcourt.

He had six blocks in his debut and should help give USC improved rim protection this season. Which is to say any rim protection at all.

The staff has been high on Jacob Cofie since he arrived on campus. Don’t be surprised if he ascends to a major role. Ezra Ausar, at 253 pounds, should be a beast on the boards, and Jaden Brownell should give USC’s frontcourt range out to the arc. This group has a lot of varied skillsets, and that should put the defense especially in a much better position.

3. Can USC score enough?

When asked what he learned most from his team during the preseason, Musselman didn’t mince words.

“We’ve got to figure out a way to score better,” he said.

Arenas, again, was supposed to lead the way in that regard. Rice was more of a secondary scorer at Maryland, as was Baker-Mazara at Auburn. USC looks, as of now, like a whole team of complementary offensive players, with no alpha yet. That can change. Maybe Cofie steps into the spot before season’s end. But it’s definitely something to monitor through the non-conference season.

What about the women’s team?

Kennedy Smith controls the ball while pressured by UConn guard Paige Bueckers during last season’s NCAA women’s tournament.

(Young Kwak / Associated Press)

USC enters this season with far lower expectations than this time last year, on account of JuJu Watkins’ knee injury, which will keep her out until next season. So what can we expect from Lindsay Gottlieb’s Trojans?

Here are the three big questions facing the USC women this season …

1. How can USC fill the void without Watkins?

This is the only question that really matters. Problem is there’s no clear answer. Gottlieb has been clear that no one player will replace Watkins, as tempting as it may be to slot top prospect Jazzy Davidson into that spot.

It’s more reasonable to recreate Watkins’ production in the aggregate. But that won’t be easy when you consider how much other production the Trojans lost from last season, in addition to Watkins. USC must replace 88% of its scoring and 80% of their rebounding output, and while that’s not that unique in the era of the transfer portal, it does mean the team is likely to have a very different identity.

Gottlieb has said that USC is going to play with more pace this season. But who will it turn to when it needs a bucket? Davidson is perhaps the likeliest candidate, but I’m particularly curious to see the development of sophomore Kennedy Smith. Smith was inconsistent offensively as a freshman. But Gottlieb plans to put the ball in her hands more, and how that works out will say a lot about the direction of the season.

2. What’s going on in the frontcourt?

Last season, there was no question who USC could count on down low. Rayah Marshall was a three-year starter, while Kiki Iriafen is now one of the best young bigs in the WNBA.

But with both gone, USC doesn’t have any proven options to step into their place. Gottlieb has said that USC will use a by-committee approach with transfer Yakiya Milton, Lithuanian import Gerda Raulusaityte and returners Vivian Iwuchukwu and Laura Williams. Of those four, only Milton was part of a college basketball rotation last season, and she only averaged two points per game in 11 minutes at Auburn.

Raulusaityte is the big unknown. One of the youngest members of the Lithuanian national team, USC kind of needs her to be an immediate contributor. Especially with her ability to stretch the floor as a shooter, something the other three don’t do. If she struggles, USC could be in trouble with its lack of talent down low.

3. How good will Davidson be right away?

Watkins is a tough act to follow as a top-rated freshman. But Davidson has the potential to be a stat-stuffing star right away.

I don’t know if she’ll score quite like Watkins, who shot 42% and scored 24 points per night as a freshman. What she will do, perhaps even more than Watkins, is elevate the games of teammates around her. You can read more about that in an upcoming story on Davidson.

But can she get a bucket when USC needs one? And can she force her way through traffic with her spindly frame? There are still questions to be answered. But while Gottlieb is doing her best to temper expectations, I think USC is going to need its star freshman to be a star right away, if it has any hope of competing in the Big Ten like it did last season.

—Jayden Maiava didn’t have it as a passer. So he used his legs. And that worked wonders. Maiava was a meager nine of 23 through the air for 135 yards, but he reminded the world that he’s a capable runner, too, as he rushed for 62 yards in 11 carries. The highlight of his day came in the third quarter, when Maiava took off on consecutive plays for a pair of 16-yard gains, the second of which saw him stiff-arm his way to a score. Maiava hasn’t looked to run much this season. But maybe he should consider doing it more.

—USC’s three most influential players Saturday were all walk-ons. Running back King Miller was USC’s only consistent source of offense. Kaylon Miller, his brother, stepped in for an injured Alani Noa and was arguably USC’s best lineman in the ground game. And USC kicker Ryon Sayeri continued to shine by knocking through two more field goals. I’m not sure what that says about USC’s team. But it’s not something you see every day.

—The offensive line just can’t stay healthy. Left tackle Elijah Paige returned after missing the previous three games, only for Noa to go down. Noa never returned, and we won’t know more about his status until at least Monday. USC is getting especially thin on the interior, with guard Micah Banuelos having also missed Saturday’s game. Center Kilian O’Connor should be back soon, but it’s a wonder that USC has held it together up front while being ravaged by injuries.

Olympic sports spotlight

After losing three of four to start their Big Ten slate, the women’s volleyball team’s tough start to the Big Ten slate is now firmly in the rearview. The Trojans have won six in a row. Among Big Ten teams, only Nebraska, which is 21-0 and No. 1 in the nation, has an active win streak that’s longer.

USC should win its next two before welcoming the Huskers to Galen Center for an epic match on Nov. 16.

In case you missed it

No. 23 USC uses late surge to win at Nebraska and keep playoff hopes alive

‘We still control our destiny.’ USC focused on rebounding after ugly Notre Dame loss

What I’m watching this week

IT: Welcome to Derry

(HBO)

I’ve written in this space before about my love of all things Stephen King. I’m also well aware of the less-than-stellar track record of adapting his books into television and movies.

I’m not sure just yet where “IT: Welcome to Derry” falls on that spectrum. Only the first two episodes of the spinoff prequel to “It” are currently available on HBO Max, and while Derry remains as creepy and tense as ever, I worry a bit about where the story is headed. All that said, my favorite part of the original book was the character building with the town’s kids. So far, that part remains intact.

Until next time …

That concludes today’s newsletter. If you have any feedback, ideas for improvement or things you’d like to see, email me at [email protected], and follow me on X at @Ryan_Kartje. To get this newsletter in your inbox, click here.