imperative

The viral claim that ASEAN warned Indonesia of possible disintegration by 2030 due to endemic corruption was swiftly debunked. No such statement appeared in the May 2025 ASEAN Summit documents nor in the World Bank’s official publications. However, its widespread circulation exposes a deeper unease—one rooted in the undeniable truth that corruption remains a corrosive force, weakening Indonesia’s economic foundations, threatening public trust, and undermining regional integrity.

This episode is more than a fact-checking exercise. It underscores a sobering reality: while Indonesia remains Southeast Asia’s largest democracy, its governance architecture is visibly strained. From chronic procurement fraud to weakened anti-graft institutions, the Indonesian state has yet to tame the entrenched networks of clientelism and political patronage that siphon national wealth and public trust alike.

The 46th ASEAN Summit in Kuala Lumpur instead highlighted ‘Inclusivity and Sustainability’ as its 2045 vision—aspirations that cannot be realised unless the region tackles systemic governance failures. And nowhere is this more urgent than in Indonesia, where economic leakage, institutional decay, and digital disinformation form a toxic triangle.

Recent research paints a stark picture. Corruption is estimated to drain Indonesia of 2–3% of its GDP annually, amounting to tens of billions in lost services, distorted investments, and inflated procurement budgets. Inflation eased to 1.6% by year-end 2024 (2.3% average) and remained within the 2.5 ± 1% target corridor in 2025—testimony to tight policy coordination between Bank Indonesia and the government. Transparency International ranked Indonesia 37 out of 100 in its 2024 Corruption Perceptions Index—lagging behind ASEAN peers such as Vietnam and Malaysia. The World Bank’s Control of Corruption indicator placed Indonesia at –0.49, well below the global average.

The local impact is even more severe. Field studies show that in provinces where corruption exceeds certain thresholds, economic growth slows dramatically. Procurement funds vanish. Schools and hospitals are underbuilt or shoddily provided. Meanwhile, decentralisation reforms, intended to empower local government, have instead multiplied the number of hands skimming public budgets.

What does this mean geopolitically?

First, Indonesia’s capacity to lead the region as ASEAN’s de facto heavyweight is compromised by domestic governance weaknesses. Political capture by economic elites stifles reform. Recurrent scandals—some reaching into defence procurement and public infrastructure—fuel public cynicism and blunt Jakarta’s credibility when promoting regional norms of transparency and the rule of law.

Second, ASEAN’s credibility suffers. For all the talk of a rules-based order, corruption undermines the region’s soft power. If democratic erosion and institutional decline persist in member states, ASEAN risks becoming a hollow vessel for lofty declarations. The disinformation surrounding Indonesia’s supposed 2030 ‘collapse’ may be false, but its virality hints at waning confidence in ASEAN’s integrity.

Third, the digital ecosystem accelerates distrust. The viral ‘ASEAN warning’ narrative spread rapidly across Southeast Asian platforms. While easily disproven by reading the summit communiqué, few do. This reveals the new battleground: disinformation thrives when formal institutions lose moral authority. Where trust erodes, conspiracies take root.

What’s needed is not another ASEAN statement, but tangible action on governance resilience. Three avenues stand out.

ASEAN must initiate a Regional Integrity Compact—a binding, independently monitored governance framework that benchmarks anti-corruption reforms across member states. Inspired by the OECD’s Anti-Corruption Network, this compact should integrate real-time procurement tracking, sectoral red-flag indicators, and transparency scorecards linked to UNCAC compliance. A designated unit within the ASEAN Secretariat, working alongside neutral data partners, must publish annual reports accessible to civil society, investors, and member parliaments alike. Only through enforceable metrics—not rhetorical declarations—can ASEAN restore credibility in its governance ambitions.

Indonesia’s leadership in ASEAN hinges on the restoration of independent prosecutorial authority. The rollback of the Corruption Eradication Commission’s (KPK) powers since 2019 has severely compromised public trust. This must be reversed through emergency legislative amendment to reinstate its wiretapping capacity, shield it from executive interference, and ensure prosecutorial continuity. Pilot programs should be deployed for independent project audits in high-risk sectors like infrastructure and defence, backed by civic oversight dashboards. No ASEAN leadership claim can be sustained if Indonesia cannot clean its own house.

Australia and Japan—both leading ASEAN dialogue partners—must anchor a new Strategic Governance Partnership for the Indo-Pacific. This initiative should target forensic accounting training, secure whistleblower systems, and regional ombuds institutional support, particularly in fragile democracies. By aligning with the EU’s Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive, such a partnership would counteract opaque foreign investment and safeguard institutional resilience. As Beijing’s economic influence grows, a values-based governance bulwark is not merely ideal—it is indispensable.

Indonesia is not Sri Lanka. It retains a pluralist system, growing GDP, and an active civil society. But the Sri Lankan collapse remains a cautionary tale: corruption-fueled inequality, elite impunity, and opaque debt deals led to mass revolt and institutional failure. The same fault lines—if left unaddressed—exist in Indonesia.

Moreover, as Southeast Asia navigates a more contested Indo-Pacific, governance is no longer a domestic issue; it is strategic. Poor governance undermines resilience, emboldens foreign interference, and weakens regional cohesion. To dismiss the viral ‘disintegration’ claim as mere misinformation is to miss the signal in the noise.

ASEAN’s 2045 vision will be built not in summits but in procurement offices, audit bureaus, and independent courts. Indonesia’s leadership depends not only on its economy or geography, but on its willingness to confront the rot within. The disinformation storm is a symptom. The cure is integrity.

London, United Kingdom – Hundreds of business leaders in the United Kingdom – including a former adviser to the king and a sustainability consultant descended from Holocaust survivors – are calling on the government to take action against Israel as the crisis in Gaza worsens.

As of Thursday morning, 762 people had signed a statement calling on Britain to cease all arms trade with Israel, sanction those accused of violating international law – ostensibly including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as he is wanted for arrest by International Criminal Court, invest in screening to stop the UK financing “complicit” companies, and enforce the United Nations’ principles on business and human rights across the UK’s economic systems.

“We see this not only as a moral imperative, but as a matter of professional responsibility – consistent with our duty to act in the best interests of long-term societal and economic resilience,” the letter reads. “The UK must ensure that no business – whether through products, services, or supply chains – is contributing to these atrocities, directly or indirectly.”

Among the signatories are the former royal adviser Jonathon Porritt CBE; sustainability consultant Adam Garfunkel; Frieda Gormley, the founder of the luxury interior design brand House of Hackney; the prominent philanthropist who once led Unilever, Paul Polman; and Geetie Singh-Watson MBE, an organic food entrepreneur – as well as other professionals who have been honoured with the Member of the British Empire (MBE) award.

They have pledged to support the UK government with an “ongoing process of reflection and action – reviewing our operations, supply chains, financial flows, and influence to help foster peace, uphold human rights, and strengthen respect for international law”.

“Business cannot succeed in societies that are falling apart,” said Polman. “It is time for business leaders to show courage, speak out, and use our influence to uphold international law.”

The number of professionals signing the letter is growing as Palestinians in the Gaza Strip face their darkest days. Israel is beginning a feared invasion into Gaza City while thousands endure hunger and famine due to the blockade of the Strip.

“We need as businesses to justify our existence and to recognise that all people everywhere deserve to be treated fairly,” Garfunkel told Al Jazeera. “My family was caught up in the Holocaust. My father was lucky enough to escape with his brother and his parents to the UK. My great grandparents were taken to the woods and shot and buried in a mass grave, and what I’ve taken from that is a strong belief that everyone matters, that everyone has human rights, that persecution on the basis of ethnic identity is always wrong, wherever it happens.”

Israel’s latest war on Gaza, termed a genocide by leading rights groups, has killed more than 60,000 people in the 22 months since October 7, 2023, when Hamas led an incursion into southern Israel, during which about 1,200 were killed and 250 taken captive – “grave crimes under international law”, according to the letter.

“However, the Israeli government’s ongoing military campaign amounts to an unrelenting and indefensible assault on civilians, breaching both moral boundaries and the core principles of the Geneva Conventions,” it added.

Porritt, who counselled King Charles on environmental issues for 30 years when the monarch held the Prince of Wales title and has chaired a sustainable development commission set up by former Prime Minister Tony Blair, said the letter reflects the role of businesses in society at a critical time.

“It’s just become so much clearer over the course of the last few months that this situation now is completely intolerable. And it constitutes very specifically a genocide against the people of Palestine, of Gaza,” he told Al Jazeera.

Businesses are obliged to be supportive in “achieving and maintaining” human rights in the countries in which they’re trading, he said. “That provides a very strong steer as to why individual business leaders need to get involved at this stage.”

Porritt has recently made headlines in the British media for his support of Palestine Action, a protest group that was proscribed by the UK government weeks ago as a terrorist organisation.

He was among the more than 500 citizens arrested during an August 9 rally in London, where he raised a banner reading, “I oppose genocide, I support Palestine Action.”

His bail hearing is set for late October.

Sir Keir Starmer has said the UK’s benefits system is broken and fixing it is a “moral imperative”, a day after a backbench Labour revolt saw him forced into a U-turn on welfare cuts.

The prime minister told the Welsh Labour Party conference in Llandudno that the government would not take away the welfare “safety net that vulnerable people rely on”.

But he said he could not let benefits “become a snare for those who can and want to work”.

Despite the government’s concession on its plans to reform welfare, some Labour MPs want further changes, while the Unite union has called for the proposal to be dropped altogether ahead of a vote on Tuesday.

The BBC understands whips and cabinet ministers – including Wes Streeting, Angela Rayner and Rachel Reeves – have been phoning or texting Labour MPs over the weekend, going through the names of the initial rebels in a bid to get an accurate assessment of potential voting.

Some MPs are saying they have yet to make their mind up on how to vote and are awaiting a statement on Monday from Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall that will spell out government concessions.

Speaking at the conference in north Wales on Saturday, Sir Keir said fixing the “broken” benefits system needed to be done because it was “failing people every day”, leaving “a generation of young people written off for good and the cost spiralling out of control”.

“Fixing it is a moral imperative, but we need to do it in a Labour way,” he added.

The government’s initial plans, aimed at bringing down the welfare bill, would have made it harder for people to claim personal independence payment (Pip), a benefit paid to 3.7 million people with long-term physical or mental health conditions.

But following a rebellion among Labour MPs and the likelihood the government would be defeated in the Commons, the government announced the stricter criteria would only apply to new claimants.

It reversed its plans to freeze the health-related component of universal credit, and the payment will now rise in line with inflation for existing recipients.

Ministers will also carry out a review of the Pip assessment process, with input from disability organisations.

A £1bn support package to help people into work, originally scheduled for 2029, will be fast-tracked.

A new “reasoned amendment” to the bill will be put down on Monday by rebel MPs, which will reflect government concessions but is expected to be similar to the now-withdrawn earlier amendment that sought to block changes to the benefits system.

The BBC understands that around 50 Labour MPs currently back that new amendment.

That number is likely to increase but the expectation is it will not reach the 80-plus needed to put the government in danger of defeat. However it would still represent a significant rebellion.

Rebel MPs are also expected to hold a briefing on Monday night at Westminster with various disability charities.

Labour MP Diane Abbott earlier told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme that she thought the result of a vote on the new plans would be tight, partly because backbenchers are still “upset about the lack of consultation” and because of “the notion of a two-tier benefit system”.

But former Labour justice secretary Lord Falconer told the programme that “sensible” changes to the welfare reforms were “pretty significant”, and that he believed opposition among Labour MPs was “shrinking and shrinking”.

Debbie Abrahams, the Labour MP who chairs the Work and Pensions Select Committee, told the BBC on Friday: “The concessions are a good start, they are very good concessions and they will protect existing claimants.

“However there are still concerns about new claimants. It would not be right for me not to do anything just to spare the prime minister an inconvenience.”

Ahead of Sir Keir’s conference speech, Unite called for the “entire welfare bill to be dropped and for the government to start again”, with general secretary Sharon Graham accusing Labour of “attacking the most vulnerable in our society”.

“The government’s latest plans for disabled benefits cuts are divisive and sinister,” she said.

“Creating a two-tier system where younger disabled people and those who become disabled in the future will be disadvantaged and denied access to work and education, is morally wrong.”