hurdles

A Bite Too Big? The Strategic Hurdles in Gunvor’s Pursuit of Lukoil

Russian energy group Lukoil is looking to sell its foreign assets due to new U. S. and UK sanctions. Gunvor, a Swiss trading firm, is interested in acquiring these assets but faces financial challenges, as Lukoil is three times larger than Gunvor based on equity. Lukoil’s foreign assets include European refineries, shares in oilfields in places like Kazakhstan and Iraq, and numerous retail fuel stations globally.

Lukoil International GmbH reported $22 billion in equity in 2024, with significant cash and fixed assets. Reports suggest that Lukoil’s asset valuation remains unchanged, and the company has no debt. In contrast, Gunvor reported equity of $6.8 billion and has a substantial cash position, but borrowing $18 billion to purchase Lukoil’s assets would be highly challenging for them.

Gunvor’s current debt-to-equity ratio is negative due to high cash reserves. However, taking on large debt to fund the acquisition could push the ratio above acceptable limits for lenders, as banks typically prefer a ratio of no more than 1.5. Alongside financial hurdles, the deal will face regulatory approvals in the countries where Lukoil operates, such as Iraq and Kazakhstan. Gunvor now has more significant operations in the U. S. and has distanced itself from its past connections to Russia.

Complicating the sale, Lukoil has ongoing projects with major international oil companies, which may have rights to purchase assets if Lukoil decides to sell. Gunvor is currently waiting for approval from U. S. regulators, with plans to avoid selling back to Lukoil if sanctions are lifted. Authorities in Bulgaria and other countries have also shown intentions to change laws regarding Lukoil’s properties.

With information from Reuters

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Femke Bol: World 400m hurdles champion switches to 800m

Two-time 400m hurdles world champion Femke Bol has announced she will switch events and compete in the 800m from next year.

Dutch superstar Bol, 25, who successfully defended her world title in Tokyo in September, has also won bronze medals at the past two Olympics in that discipline.

She has also been a world indoor champion in the flat 400m and is a renowned relay athlete, a gold medallist anchor leg runner with the Netherlands’ 4x400m team at Paris 2024.

In 2026, she will move up in distance to an event in which Great Britain’s Keely Hodgkinson is the reigning Olympic champion.

Bol said in a post on Instagram:, external “It’s a big change, it’s uncertain and challenging, but I’m ready to put in the work, surrounded by an amazing team and enjoy this new journey.”

Hodgkinson replied to the post, saying: “Can’t wait to share the start line.”



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Potential hurdles litter road as Israel and Hamas head to Gaza peace talks | Israel-Palestine conflict News

Delegations from Hamas, Israel and the United States are due to convene in Egypt for talks on US President Donald Trump’s proposal to end the war in Gaza.

Indirect negotiations between Israel and Hamas over the 20-point plan are due to begin in Egypt’s Red Sea resort of Sharm el-Sheikh on Monday.

The talks, which come on the eve of the second anniversary of the Hamas attacks on Israel that led to the war, have raised hopes that the devastating conflict, which has killed tens of thousands in Gaza, could soon end. But at the same time, there are plenty of potential obstacles to sealing a deal.

Trump has insisted that both sides are on board with his peace framework and has called for the negotiations to “move fast” in reaching an agreement.

Despite the failure of several initiatives to try to end the conflict, including two brief ceasefires that collapsed, the bombardment of Gaza, which has now killed at least 67,160 people, wounded 169,679, and pushed the enclave’s two million or so people towards starvation, Trump said “the first phase should be completed this week”.

In a post on his social media platform Truth Social, Trump said there had been “very positive discussions with Hamas” and other governments over the weekend “to release the Hostages, end the War in Gaza but, more importantly, finally have long sought peace in the Middle East”.

“These talks have been very successful, and proceeding rapidly,” he said. “I am asking everyone to move fast … time is of the essence, or massive bloodshed will follow.”

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also appeared to buoy expectations when he said the release of the 48 Israeli captives held by Hamas – 20 of whom are believed to be alive – could be announced this week.

Under the plan, Hamas would release the captives in exchange for the release of Palestinian prisoners held in Israeli jails.

Hamas has also agreed to give up power in Gaza, while Israel has agreed to withdraw its forces from the enclave.

Lacking details

However, numerous issues remain under the proposal, which lacks details.

There is no timescale given for the disarmament of Hamas, while a vague reference to the establishment of a Palestinian state has put many on both sides of the deal on edge.

Meanwhile, with the talks set to commence, Israeli forces have continued their assault in Gaza.

Seven people were killed on Monday morning, including three who were seeking humanitarian aid, according to Al Jazeera sources.

Nour Odeh, reporting for Al Jazeera from the Jordanian capital, Amman, said that, for all Trump’s comments talking up the prospects of the plan, significant obstacles remained.

“There are a lot of details that could potentially derail” the negotiations, she said.

Potential sticking points include Israel’s insistence that it wants all captives released at the same time within 72 hours.

It also wants to retain freedom to pursue Hamas, despite the withdrawal agreement, and insists that its withdrawal lines and timelines have already been set.

“All of these things need to undergo delicate talks,” she said.

Perhaps reflecting such doubts, the Israeli media reported on Monday that the negotiation process would now begin with Hamas representatives speaking with mediators, with Israeli and US representatives not participating until Wednesday.

Trump has demanded that Israel stop bombing Gaza so that the talks can play out, but strikes have continued across the territory.

Israeli government spokesperson Shosh Bedrosian told reporters on Sunday that the military would continue to act for “defensive purposes” and that there was no ceasefire in place.

Speaking on ABC’s This Week, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio described two phases that would occur once Hamas accepted Trump’s framework.

First, the Israeli captives would be released by Hamas, and then Israel would pull back in Gaza to the “yellow line”, where its military was positioned in August.

Rubio said Hamas should release captives as soon as they were ready, and that Israel’s bombardment needed to end so they could be released.

Hamas’s future a sticking point

The question of Hamas’s future also looms as a major potential obstacle.

Trump’s plan calls for Gaza’s demilitarisation and rules out any future governing role for Hamas, though it allows its members to remain if they renounce violence and disarm.

Hamas has responded positively to the plan, saying it was ready to negotiate the captives’ release, and form part of a “Palestinian national framework” that would shape Gaza’s future.

However, the prospect of Hamas remaining in any form has enraged Netanyahu’s far-right coalition allies. They have threatened to topple the government over the issue.

“Alongside the important goal in and of itself of releasing the hostages, the central goal of the war, which stems from the October 7 massacre carried out by Hamas monsters, is that the terrorist organisation Hamas cannot be allowed to remain in existence,” National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir said in a social media post.

He said he and his party, Otzma Yehudit, had told Netanyahu that they would quit the government if Hamas continued to exist after the captives’ release.

“We will not be part of a national defeat that will bring eternal shame to the world, and that will become a ticking time bomb for the next massacre,” he said.

However, Yair Lapid, leader of the opposition, on Sunday offered to lend Netanyahu’s government support to prevent a collapse at the hands of his “extremist and irresponsible partners” while the plan is negotiated.

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California’s hurdles – Los Angeles Times

Jerry Roberts and Phil Trounstine cover California politics at calbuzz.com.

Afew hours after California voters approved his Proposition 13 tax-cut measure on June 6, 1978, a bibulous and exultant Howard Jarvis dropped his pants for the benefit of a few reporters gathered in his suite at the L.A. Biltmore Hotel.

A reporter had asked Jarvis why he was limping, so his ostensible reason was to show a large, ugly bruise, which he’d suffered in a fall a few days before, on his ample, boxer-clad behind. The surprise gesture, however, also afforded the earthy and profane Jarvis a chance to display his contempt for the press and, by extension, the political class that had mocked him and opposed his cherished measure.

Thirty years later, the ghost of Jarvis and his legacy initiative still aim antipathy, scorn and disdain at California’s government and its leaders. Proposition 13 was the first, and most far-reaching, in a cascade of political decisions over the last three decades that have shaped the dysfunctional structure of governance in the state.

Simply put, California today is ungovernable.

As state and local officials struggle to weather the state’s fiscal crisis, they wield power with the damaged machinery of a patchwork government system that lacks accountability, encourages stalemate and drifts but cannot be steered.

In this system, elected leaders carry responsibility, but not authority, for far-reaching policies about public revenues and resources. That’s not governance — it’s reactive management of a deeply flawed status quo.

Here is a look at six key factors that have made California impossible to govern. Proposition 13: The fiscal effect of Proposition 13 itself is only part of the damage the initiative did to California. Even worse have been the methods Capitol politicians devised to try to lessen the measure’s financial impact. After Proposition 13 passed, then-Gov. Jerry Brown and the Democrat-dominated Legislature realigned — “tangled” would be more accurate — the relationship between state and local governments by effectively shifting control of remaining property tax revenue to Sacramento. In a crisis atmosphere, they radically transformed California’s political landscape, taking power and responsibility for health, welfare, schools and other local services away from city councils, boards of supervisors and school boards, thereby establishing today’s chaotic maze of overlapping jurisdiction, which defies efforts at accountability.

Budget initiatives: Proposition 13 also ushered in an era of ballot-box budgeting, as fiscal initiatives became a favored special-interest tool to take control of public fund expenditures. A series of post-13 initiatives — including measures creating the lottery, financing public schools by mathematical formula and earmarking revenues for special programs, from mental health to medical care — established an exquisitely complex state budget calculus that has hamstrung the rational operations of government.

Gerrymandering: The once-a-decade process of redrawing political maps based on the census has created an increasingly partisan Capitol atmosphere. Reapportionment has become essentially an incumbent protection effort, as lawmakers craft districts that are either safely Democratic or safely Republican. In this way, the crucial contests are party primaries, not the general elections. Because primaries draw the most partisan voters, the most conservative Republicans and the most liberal Democrats tend to win the nominations that guarantee election in November. The dynamic locks in ideological polarization in Sacramento, where lawmakers have little motivation to compromise.

Term limits: Despite the claims of backers, the 1990 term-limits initiative did not get rid of career politicians — it simply changed the arc of their careers. Instead of spending decades in the same Assembly or Senate district seat, legislators position themselves for the next office — or job as a lobbyist — as soon as they arrive in Sacramento. The up-or-out system rewards short-term, self-interested political thinking more than long-term policymaking in the public interest. Term limits also make lobbyists, not the Legislature, the repository of Capitol expertise; that lobbyists are useful in raising campaign cash adds an overlay of soft corruption to the process.

Boom-and-bust taxation: Since Proposition 13, state government has become increasingly dependent on volatile sources of revenue — the sales, corporation and progressive personal income taxes — that generate annual shifts in tax collections corresponding closely to the business cycle. When economic times are good, as during the dot-com and housing bubbles, money pours in and there’s little political incentive — in fact, term limits create a perverse disincentive — for long-term financial planning. When revenues contract, the Capitol has rarely made real spending reductions, preferring to wait for the next boom.

The two-thirds vote: California is one of only three states requiring a two-thirds legislative vote to pass a budget, one of 16 requiring a two-thirds vote to raise taxes — and the only state to require both. The budget requirement has been in the Constitution since the New Deal; the tax restriction began with Proposition 13. In the polarized atmosphere of Sacramento, the two-thirds rules effectively hand a veto to the minority party. Under these conditions, stalemate and deadlock on key fiscal issues have become the political norm.

So what can be done about the dysfunction? In the next few weeks, a blue-ribbon commission is set to recommend sweeping changes in the tax system to stabilize revenue collections. Voters last fall approved Proposition 11, which takes away the Legislature’s power to draw its own districts in favor of an independent commission. Next year, as they elect a new governor, Californians also will vote on a system of “open primary” elections aimed at aiding moderates, and they also will probably decide on one or more initiatives to dump the two-thirds budget vote requirement.

California Forward, a bipartisan good government group financed by major foundations, is crafting proposals to conform government systems and processes to modern management methods. And the business-oriented Bay Area Council is pushing initiatives for a state constitutional convention, the first since 1879, to wipe the slate clean and build a new, rational structure for state government.

“The seriousness of the problem has reached a crescendo,” said Jim Wunderman, CEO of the Bay Area Council. “The public is making a statement, loud and clear, that they expect action.”

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World’s ‘largest’ inflatable obstacle course with 300m playground, 40 hurdles & mega slide is coming to UK this summer

ESSEX is set to be the proud owner of the world’s largest inflatable obstacle course.

Braintree Village will be the home to an action-packed activity area and assault course – just in time for the summer holidays (and questionable weather).

People playing on a large inflatable obstacle course.

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The inflatable obstacle course is great for adults and kidsCredit: Supplied
Illustration of a large inflatable obstacle course with slides and a monster-shaped inflatable.

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The Monster boasts a 300m playground, 40 hurdles and mega slideCredit: Supplied

Named The Monster, people can take on the huge obstacle course from Saturday 19th July to Sunday 31st August.

Based in the Essex shopping outlet, the area will be transformed into a giant playground with 300 metres of inflatable fun for everyone.

You’ll find more than 40 obstacles including the 18-metre Mega Slide, the chaotic Exterminator and the House of Hell.

The Monster has toured Canada and the USA – plus has had sell-out events at London’s Alexandra Palace and Birmingham’s NEC.

The gigantic arena – which is the biggest of its kind in the area – is welcome to people of all ages.

Guests can take part in daytime sessions for families and youngsters.

Plus adult-only evening experiences with street food and drink available to enhance a festival vibe.

Josef O’Sullivan, Centre Director at Braintree Village, commented: “We’re thrilled to welcome The Monster to Braintree Village this summer.

“It’s such a unique, exciting attraction that will bring something totally new to the area.

“We’ve seen such a positive reaction to the recent limited-run activities that we have brought to the outlet, and we’re certain that this is going to be the most hotly anticipated event yet.

“We look forward to sharing more details about The Monster soon – it’s set to be an unforgettable summer at Braintree Village.”

Ticket prices and sessions will be confirmed in the coming weeks.

Children must be aged 6 years or 1-metre tall to take part.

Guests are encouraged to sign up to the outlet’s member rewards club, PLUS+, for priority access to tickets and exclusive announcements.

The exciting summer news follows a range of fresh stores opening at the outlet.

Shoppers have gone wild for Essex’s first ever Crocs store, Joules and Belstaff.

For more sensory overload and stimulation, Haribo’s first flagship UK store can be found round the corner in Kent‘s Bluewater.

Its Bluewater debut is Haribo’s first store in the UK that is outside of a designer shopping outlet.

The brand already has 10 locations across factory destinations in the likes of Ashford and Gunwharf Quays in Portsmouth.

People climbing a large inflatable obstacle course.

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The assault course is coming to Braintree, EssexCredit: Supplied
People enjoying a large inflatable obstacle course.

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The Monster is the largest inflatable obstacle course in the worldCredit: Supplied
People navigating an inflatable obstacle course.

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There are adults-only sessions where you’ll find a festival vibeCredit: Supplied
Braintree Village sign with a living wall; outlet shopping in the heart of Essex.

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The epic activity arena can be found at Braintree VillageCredit: Supplied

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Commentary: Three years away from the Olympics, L.A. is tripping over hurdles and trying to play catchup

Los Angeles is now a mere 12 months away from serving as primary host of the World Cup soccer championships, and three years away from taking the world stage as host of both the 2028 Summer Olympics and Paralympics.

Athletes and tourists by the tens of thousands will pour into the region from around the world, and I’m reminded of the classic film “Sunset Boulevard,” in which Gloria Swanson proclaimed, “I’m ready for my close-up.”

Will L.A. be ready for its close-up?

Steve Lopez

Steve Lopez is a California native who has been a Los Angeles Times columnist since 2001. He has won more than a dozen national journalism awards and is a four-time Pulitzer finalist.

That’s a question I intend to explore on a semi-regular basis, and you’re invited to worry and wonder along with me by sending your comments and questions to [email protected].

To let you know where I’m coming from, I’m a sports fan who watches the Olympics on television despite the politics, the doping scandals and the corporatization of the Games. But I’m also a professional skeptic, and my questions extend far beyond whether we’re ready for our close-up.

Here are just a few:

Will the benefits of hosting outweigh the burdens?

Will the average Southern Californian get anything out of the years-long buildup and staging of the Games?

And, will basic services and infrastructure near Olympic venues get upgrades at the expense of long-overdue improvements in other areas?

The answer to that question is a big “yes,” says L.A. Councilwoman Monica Rodriguez, who represents the northeastern San Fernando Valley.

“What I’ve seen in [the latest] budget is that those areas that will be hosting some of the Olympic events will be prioritized,” she said, and that means her district is off the radar.

It’s worth noting that the city of Los Angeles is not running these Olympics (that’s the job of LA28, a private nonprofit working in conjunction with the International Olympic Committee), nor is it hosting all the events. Olympic sites will be scattered well beyond Los Angeles proper, with volleyball in Anaheim, for instance, cricket in Pomona, cycling in Carson and swimming in Long Beach. Softball and canoe slalom competitions will be held in Oklahoma City.

Olyumpic Competitors dive into the Seine river for the men's 10km, marathon swimming, in 2024

Competitors dive into the Seine river at the start of the men’s 10km, marathon swimming, at the 2024 Summer Olympic Games in Paris.

(David Goldman / Associated Press)

But as lead host and a partner in the staging of mega-events that will draw an international spotlight, the reputation of the city of Los Angeles is on the line.

One financial advantage the 2028 Games will enjoy over previous Olympics is that there’s no need to erect any massive, ridiculously expensive new stadiums or arenas. There’ll be soccer at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, track and field at the L.A. Coliseum and baseball at Dodger Stadium, for instance. All of which will keep the overall cost of the Games down.

But playing the part of primary Olympic host carries as many risks as opportunities.

“The Games have a history of damaging the cities and societies that host them,” according to an analysis last year in the Georgetown Journal of International Affairs, which cited “broken budgets that burden the public purse … the militarization of public spaces … and the expulsion of residents through sweeps, gentrifications and evictions.”

Even without all that, L.A. has a raft of problems on its hands, and the close-up at the moment is not a pretty portrait.

Tens of thousands of people are homeless, and the agency overseeing homelessness is in turmoil amid damning financial audits, so unless there’s a quick turnaround, the city will be draped in blue tarps for all the world to see. Meanwhile, planned transportation improvements are behind schedule, skyrocketing liability claim settlements are expected to cost $300 million this year, and on top of all that, it suddenly dawned on local leaders several weeks ago that the city was broke.

“Our budget situation is critical,” Mayor Karen Bass wrote in an April letter to the City Council, outlining a nearly $1-billion deficit and proposing numerous program cuts and layoffs.

The City Council restored some of those trims, but the outlook is still grim, with several hundred workers losing their jobs. Bass and other local leaders maintain that playing host to mega-events will help restock the treasury. But the opposite could be true, and if the $7-billion Games don’t break even, the already-strapped city will get slapped with a $270-million bailout tab.

For all the hand-wringing at City Hall, it’s not as if the current budget deficit should have come as a surprise. Revenue is down, the response to homelessness devours a big chunk of the budget (without transformational progress to show for the investment), and the bills keep coming due on the City Hall tradition of awarding public employee pay raises it can’t afford.

That’s why there’s a 10-year wait to get a ruptured sidewalk fixed (although the city is much quicker to pay millions in trip-and-fall cases), and there’s an estimated $2 billion in deferred maintenance at recreation and parks department facilities. At TorchedLA, journalist Alissa Walker reports that in an annual ranking of park systems in the largest 100 cities, L.A. has dropped to 90th, which she fairly called “a bad look for a city set to host the largest sporting events in the world.”

Speaking of bad looks, moving thousands of athletes and tourists around the city will be key to the success of the Games, but some of the so-called “28 by 28” transportation improvements slated for completion by the start of the Olympics have been dereailed or scaled back. And my colleague Colleen Shalby reported last month that Metro’s projected budget deficit over the next five years is massive:

“Critical parts of Metro’s Olympics plans are yet to be nailed down,” she wrote. “The agency has yet to confirm $2 billion in funds to lease nearly 3,000 buses, which are integral to Los Angeles’ transit-first goal for the Games.”

Babe Didrikson, right, clears first hurdle at the 1932 Olympic Games at the Coliseum.

Babe Didrikson, right, clears the first hurdle on her way to winning the first heat of the women’s 80-meter hurdles during the 1932 Los Angeles Olympic Games at the Coliseum.

(Associated Press)

Michael Schneider, founder of the nonprofit Streets for All, said L.A.’s budget crisis “is coming at the worst possible time.” Not that the delivery of basic infrastructure needs should be tied to major sporting events, but he had hoped the Olympics would trigger a substantial investment in “bus rapid transit, a network of bike lanes, sidewalks that aren’t broken, curb ramps. Just the nuts and bolts of infrastructure.”

Jules Boykoff, a Pacific University professor and former professional soccer player who has studied the social and economic impacts of several recent Olympics, is not wowed by L.A.’s record so far.

“I thought Los Angeles was going to be in a lot better shape,” Boykoff said. “I’ve been taken aback by the problems that exist and how little has been done.”

The real goal isn’t just to host the Olympics, Boykoff said, but to do so in a way that delivers long-lasting improvements.

“Any smart city” uses the Games “to get gains for everybody in the city. Athens in 2004 got a subway system,” he said, Rio de Janeiro in 2016 got a transit link, and last year’s host, Paris, got a system of bike lanes.

L.A. had gold-medal aspirations, and the city has made some transit improvements. It’s also got a wealth of signature natural wonders to show off, from the mountains to the sea, just as the Paris Games featured the Eiffel Tower and the magical evening skyline.

But three big hurdles now stand in the way of making it to the podium:

The budget limitations (which could get worse between now and 2028), the diversion of resources to the Palisades wildfire recovery, and the uncertainty of desperately needed federal financial support from President Trump, who would probably not put Los Angeles on his list of favorite cities.

Races are sometimes won by runners making a move from the back of the pack, and L.A. could still find its stride, show some pride, and avoid embarrassing itself.

That’s what I’m rooting for.

But just one year away from the World Cup and three from the Olympics, the clock is ticking, and it’s almost too late to be playing catchup.

[email protected]

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Prep talk: DeAuna Louis of GALA is athlete to watch in the hurdles

When it comes to going over hurdles, DeAuna Louis of GALA is the best in the City Section. She will try to defend her City titles in the 100 and 300-meter hurdles on Thursday at the City Section track and field championships at Birmingham.

Equally important is her goal to do well at next weekend’s state championships at Buchanan High in Clovis.

She has become one of the most successful athletes in the history of the Girls Academic Leadership Academy, which is the first and only all-girls STEM school in the Los Angeles Unified School District.

Running events are scheduled to begin at 4 p.m. weather permitting (there’s a heat wave coming this week) …

The City Section will hold an Open Division baseball semifinal doubleheader on Tuesday at Cal State Northridge, with El Camino Real playing Birmingham at 3 p.m., followed by Venice taking on Sylmar at 6 p.m. The winners advance to Saturday’s 1 p.m. final at Dodger Stadium.

This is a daily look at the positive happenings in high school sports. To submit any news, please email [email protected].



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Trump’s film tariff plan threatens new hurdles for filmmakers

May 12 (UPI) — President Donald Trump‘s announcement that he wishes to place tariffs on internationally-produced films has people in the movie business worrying of another hurdle.

Trump announced his intention to implement 100% tariffs on foreign films on May 4 after meeting with actor Jon Voight. Trump has not shared details about how his tariff plan would work. Daniel Loria, senior vice president of The BoxOffice Company, told UPI the first and most difficult task will be defining what a foreign-made film is.

“Is a movie written in the U.S. for a U.S. studio, funded by a U.S. production company set in a foreign country that then comes back and does all the effects and post-production work and marketing here — because the story elements include a foreign angle, does that count as a foreign-made film?” Loria said.

“Ultimately determining what is and isn’t foreign produced, which is a difficult task to enact in a globalized economy and industry, is going to be essential to how film studios tackle this proposed era that is coming up.”

Unlike an automotive manufacturer that imports tangible products into the United States, filmmaking is far more speculative. Films are less a good or product and more an experience, Loria said.

“You’re buying the experience,” he said. “Putting a tariff on movies would be very difficult to trickle down to the moviegoer. You have to think about movie-going as a service, not a good.”

The United States has not placed tariffs on films before. American films are not subject to tariffs in other countries when they hit their theaters either. Physical media such as DVDs and Blu-rays are subject to tariffs in some cases. Other countries, such as China, may require American films to be altered to meet content guidelines.

Hollywood is recognized as the epicenter of the film world but it has increasingly become a global industry. The highest-grossing film in the world this year is the Chinese animated film Ne Zha 2. As of Friday, it has earned more than double that of the second-place film, A Minecraft Movie, reaching $1.8 billion in the worldwide box office, according to Box Office Mojo.

Box office data combines the United States and Canada’s earnings — referred to as the domestic box office — in comparison to the worldwide box office. According to Loria’s data, the domestic box office represented 21% of global sales in 2021, 29% in 2022, 27% in 2023 and about 30% in 2024.

Loria noted that while box office earnings and publicly known production costs are often cited to gauge the success of a film, it is difficult to determine which films are profitable or how profitable the business is as a whole.

“A lot of Hollywood accountants would tell you no films make money,” Loria said.

Box office numbers suggest that the industry is still recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic. The pandemic halted productions around the world and closed theaters in the United States for more than a year. This came after a record year at the box office in 2019.

Shannon Cole is the executive director of the Vermillion Cultural Association based in Vermillion, S.D. The nonprofit organization leads art programming for the city and owns and operates the Coyote Twin Theater. It is the only theater within a 25-mile radius of the town and plays many of the biggest new releases.

Cole told UPI that the announcement of film tariffs combined with other Trump administration policies — specifically cuts to the National Endowment for the Arts and National Endowment for the Humanities — has her, other local arts leaders and local artists worried about how long they can continue doing their work.

“It means we’re looking at at least three more years of what’s already been a four-year downturn in the film industry,” Cole said. “Everyone is out of the habit of going to the movies. Now, you’re saying potentially movies could end up costing more because studios will charge theaters more to show movies?”

According to Cole, the Coyote Twin Theater’s audience was down by 40% from 2023 to 2024. The theater pays as much as 68% of ticket prices back to the studios for showing their movies, and for-profit theaters may pay more.

“2019 by far was the high watermark of the movie industry worldwide,” Cole said. “It was the best year on record for us. Everybody wants to get back to that.”

Jason Squire, professor emeritus at the University of Southern California School of Cinematic Arts and host of The Movie Business Podcast, told UPI that the business is largely far different than the perception of glitz and glamour that is often attached to it.

“It’s a gig economy,” Squire said. “It’s people who are, in general, highly accomplished craftspeople in very specialized crafts. Many of whom are struggling because of runaway production. Because of issues of crisis within the business and the transformation that’s going on.”

Part of that transformation is the decentralization of the industry. States like Georgia, New Jersey, New Mexico and Louisiana are drawing production away from California with enticing incentives. Production incentives are not unique to the United States though.

Toronto has been growing its film production market since the 1970s, spurred on by the Ontario Film and Television Tax Credit. This 35% refundable tax credit is offered to productions that meet several criteria, including spending at least 75% of their final costs in Ontario.

India and China have surpassed the United States in terms of the number of films they produce. India offers cash rebates for qualifying production expenses.

In response to Trump’s tariff announcement, California Gov. Gavin Newsom proposed a new $7.5 billion federal film tax credit to help bring productions back to California.

“California built the film industry — and we’re ready to bring even more jobs home,” Newsom wrote on X. “We’ve proven what strong state incentives can do. Now it’s time for a real federal partnership to Make America Film Again.”

Voight, one of three advisers to Trump on Hollywood, has also drawn up a “Make Hollywood Great Again” plan that proposes incentives for domestic film production, according to Deadline. His proposals are laden with several incentives for a majority of physical production to be done in the United States.

Voight also proposed a 120% tariff if a film “could have been produced in the U.S.” but was produced elsewhere and receives a production tax incentive.

“The idea of placing a tariff on overseas tax incentives or government subsidies or rebates would be onerous,” Squire said. “It would throw a wrench in the works of the business model and make it more expensive, which is the last thing you want. The key to producing movies is to make them at a price you believe the public will bear and make a little more than you spent in order to keep making movies.”

Cinema United, formerly the National Association of Theatre Owners, released a statement on Thursday in response to the Trump administration’s interest in reforming the film industry.

“It is important to recognize that theatrical exhibition is not a Hollywood industry, but a Main Street industry, and proposals that support and promote the hard work being done by theatre owners will have a positive and meaningful impact in communities across this nation,” Michael O’Leary, president and CEO of Cinema United, said in a statement.

“We are committed to working with the administration, Congress and all interested parties who recognize and share the goal of ensuring that our local theatres retain both their economic and cultural significance and we thank them for their leadership.”

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