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The US president repeats claims that Cuba is ready to negotiate as it faces a spiralling energy and economic crisis.

United States President Donald Trump has signalled that his administration is still pursuing a government overthrow in Cuba even as the US-Israeli war on Iran enters its second week.

Trump said on Monday that the US Department of State is still focused on Cuba, where plans by the White House may or may not include “a friendly takeover” of the island, according to the Reuters news agency.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is “dealing” with Cuba, the president told reporters in Florida.

“He’s dealing [with it], and it may be a friendly takeover, it may not be a friendly takeover. Wouldn’t really matter because they’re really down to … as they say, fumes. They have no energy, they have no money,” Trump said.

“They are going to make either a deal or we’ll do it just as easy, anyway,” he said.

Cuba has been grappling with an energy crisis since January, when US forces abducted Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and halted fuel exports from Caracas to Havana, cutting the country off from one of its few allies and a key source of oil for the Cuban economy.

White House officials have suggested that Cuba is facing an economic collapse and that its government is ready to negotiate with Washington.

Trump has said on multiple occasions that Cuba’s government is ready to “fall” and that its leaders want to “make a deal” with Washington, according to NBC News.

Cuba has denied reports of high-level talks, according to Reuters, but it has not “outright” denied US media reports of “informal talks” between Raul Guillermo Rodriguez Castro, the grandson of former Cuban President Raul Castro, and US officials.

Cuba has been in the crosshairs of the US for decades, but Trump is the first US president since the Cold War to openly discuss and pursue a government change in Havana.

Trump’s attacks on Venezuela and Cuba are in line with his revival of the “Monroe Doctrine”, a 19th-century policy that states the Western Hemisphere should be solely under the sway of the US and no other foreign power.

Trump first raised the notion of a “friendly takeover” of Cuba in February.

Civilian onlookers out in the street filming the air-to-air engagement rapidly unfolding in the bright blue sky above them, a trail of smoke, and the low rumble of fighter jet engines. This is the latest video to have emerged from the extraordinary incident earlier this week in which a Kuwaiti Air Force F/A-18 Hornet was responsible for shooting down three U.S. Air Force F-15E Strike Eagles.

As in the previous videos of the incident and its aftermath, the usual caveats apply as to the nature of its authenticity, which remains unconfirmed. However, everything points to this being genuine, and it clearly indicates a within-visual-range air-to-air engagement, likely involving a heat-seeking AIM-9 Sidewinder series air-to-air missile.

Check the video out here:

It was initially rumored that a ground-based air defense system, such as the Patriot, which is present in Kuwait, took the F-15Es out. However, the earlier video footage of one of the jets spiraling to the ground suggested it was an air-to-air engagement, based on the damage to the aircraft.

The new video is also in line with our original assessment of the likely cause of the shootdowns, namely, tail-aspect missile shots made by smaller-yield weapons. As we noted at the time, under certain circumstances, if the Hornet employed passive heat-seeking missiles (AIM-9), the F-15E pilots may not have known they were being engaged until the weapon detonated.

The video clearly shows one of the F-15Es after being hit, with part of its rear portion burning brightly, and the same aircraft in a flat spin toward the ground. You can also see the two crew members ejecting. The F/A-18 is also seen, toward the top of the frame.

For at least part of the engagement, the F/A-18 and F-15E are clearly in the same frame and are in close proximity.

An experienced former F/A-18 pilot TWZ talked to about the event and the new video concluded that the incident is, altogether, “very strange.”

“I have genuinely no idea how someone could make this mistake,” the ex-Hornet driver continued. “Unless it’s something procedural and GCI [ground-control intercept] has messed up, talked him on, and he’s seen what he wanted to see … but even that’s bordering on implausible.”

Undoubtedly, the challenge of deconfliction of friend from foe in a very complex war zone is a significant one, as we outlined previously. At the same time, the threat from Iranian aircraft was, at the time, real. Also this week, a Qatar Emiri Air Force F-15QA shot down a pair of Iranian Su-24 Fencer strike aircraft that were inbound to attack the sprawling air base at Al Udeid.

While the cause of the friendly-fire incident remains unclear, the chance to see such an aerial engagement is remarkable in itself, especially the very rare sight of a modern fighter firing one of its air-to-air missiles in an operational context.

A video shows a U.S. Air Force F-15C Eagle fighter jet destroying a towed target at very close range with one of its Sidewinder air-to-air missiles, during a live-fire exercise over the Atlantic Ocean on December 8, 2020:

F-15 Firing Training Sidewinder NATM-9M At Drone

The same former Hornet driver also explained exactly how a short-range AIM-9 Sidewinder missile would be fired from the jet in a WVR scenario:

“You’d be in air-to-air master mode and bring up the weapon using HOTAS [‘hands on throttle and stick’ controls]. You rock a castle switch that puts you in Sidewinder mode. From there, you can select your radar scan mode, again using HOTAS. Now you have a weapon looking for an infrared signature and a radar looking for a target. In a combat mode, the radar will latch/form a track almost immediately. The weapon system then cues the Sidewinder to the radar track, and so long as it’s within the weapon’s kinematic capabilities, you’ll get a SHOOT cue. The weapon then leaves on trigger press.”

“You can also just point and shoot with a Sidewinder, but then your radar isn’t giving you any info, so you risk a shot that can’t make it.”

In such a scenario, it is conceivable that the F/A-18 pilot might have accidentally launched a missile that then found its target, the same pilot agreed, but that would not explain the three friendly-fire kills.

“Once, yes. Twice, no way. Thrice?”

It is worth bearing in mind that there have been previous incidents of friendly-fire shootdowns, even when a visual ID had been conducted. This happened in 1994, when two U.S. Air Force F-15 Eagle fighters shot down two U.S. Army UH-60 Black Hawk helicopters over Iraq, killing 26. Perhaps the Kuwaiti pilot thought they had encountered Iranian MiG-29 Fulcrum fighters, but, again, to make the same mistake three times over seems highly improbable, especially at close range.

Another fighter pilot’s analysis, seen in video below, questions whether the Kuwaiti pilot might even have gone rogue against an ally. That actually seems possible based on the evidence, but it is hard to believe.

Accident or Crime? A Kuwaiti F/A-18 Hornet Shot Down Three U.S. F-15E Strike Eagles?

Ultimately, based on the latest video and the limited reports so far, it’s still far from clear how this costly incident happened. A friendly-fire kill involving a longer-range weapon would be more believable, but the within-visual-range nature of this engagement is bizarre, to say the least.

Contact the author: thomas@thewarzone.com

US President Donald Trump said the US is in talks with the government of Cuba and that “we could very well end up having a friendly takeover of Cuba.” The country is facing a severe energy shortage after the US imposed a fuel blockade.