Fleet

An agreement to ramp up production of the B-21 Raider was indeed structured to at least open the door to orders for more of the bombers, according to prime contractor Northrop Grumman. When the deal was announced back in February, the U.S. Air Force described it as a tool primarily intended to simply help accelerate fielding of the B-21. The service also said that long-stated plans for a fleet of 100 aircraft remained unchanged. Since then, it has separately confirmed that it is reassessing the objective Raider fleet size.

Northrop Grumman CEO Kathy Warden was asked about the prospect of orders for more than 100 B-21s during a quarterly earnings call earlier this week.

“The agreement we reached with the Air Force does allow them to consider accelerating production into a larger program of record, and we are working with them in that analysis,” Warden said. “They are undertaking it now. I expect that by year-end they will come to a conclusion on that, and we’ll certainly keep you updated.”

The deal, as it was announced earlier this year, centers on a 25 percent boost in annual B-21 production capacity. Raider production rate details have been and remain classified, but past reports have said that Northrop Grumman is understood to be able to churn out up to eight of the bombers a year.

As noted, emphasis was placed at the time on production acceleration to support fielding of the first operational B-21s next year. Any possibility of a larger total fleet size was downplayed.

U.S. officials have increasingly voiced support for a fleet of more than 100 B-21s for years now. Just in April, Secretary Pete Hegseth told members of the Senate Armed Services Committee that he saw a need for “a lot more” B-21s. However, the Air Force has repeatedly said there has been no change in the official acquisition plan.

The first sign of actual change being on the horizon came in May. That month, Air Force Lt. Gen. David Tabor, Deputy Chief of Staff for Plans and Programs, made clear that the planned Raider fleet size, or so-called program of record, was at least under formal review at a hearing before the House Armed Services Committee.

“We’re in the process of sharpening our pencils, really getting down to exactly what that [revised program of record] is,” Tabor said at that time, according to Air & Space Forces Magazine. “I think here in the next year, by the time we get to the ’28 [Fiscal Year 2028] budget, we’ll be able to give you a better answer, much more precise answer, and show you our homework.”

The Pentagon’s annual proposed budget for the upcoming fiscal year is typically released sometime in the spring. During the earnings call this week, Northrop Grumman CEO Warden indicated that the final decision on a new B-21 fleet size target is actually expected to come months before then, which makes sense in the context of the lengthy budget planning process.

What that new B-21 fleet number might be remains to be seen, and it is not clear whether it will even be publicly disclosed. In February, an Air Force official told TWZ that any revised figure is expected to be classified. Cost, schedule, and other details about the Raider program continue to be shrouded in heavy secrecy even as the aircraft has moved into increasingly public testing ahead of its planned fielding next year.

In terms of overall progress, the Air Force and members of Congress have repeatedly described the B-21 as a model acquisition effort that has been able to stay within cost and schedule targets despite at least a few hurdles during development.

On “B-21, there’s been good execution throughout the years,” John Greene, Northrop Grumman’s CFO, also said on the earnings call this week. “So, that’s been an enabler to ensure the overall program profitability remains on a direction that’s headed north.”

Air Force officials have also been open about their excitement for what the B-21 will bring operationally, as well as the added capacity that will come from having even 100 of these bombers. The B-21 is notably smaller than the B-2, but it will offer extreme range and other substantially improved capabilities compared to its predecessor. There are also only 19 B-2s still in service, and those aircraft, though highly capable, are very much a ‘silver bullet’ force.

B-21 Takeoff and Landing

The Raiders will replace the Air Force’s aging B-1B swing-wing bombers, as well. There is no clear replacement plan for the B-52 bomber yet, with those aircraft set to continue flying through at least 2050. To ensure their relevance for decades to come, the B-52s are in the process of receiving an extensive array of upgrades, including new engines and radars, but there have been delays. How those efforts continue to unfold might also have implications for the B-21 even though the two aircraft fill very different roles.

By all indications, the B-21 remains on track to begin fielding next year. The Air Force just recently made an announcement about the operational crew complement for the bombers, which will be two pilots. You can read more about this decision and its significance here.

It will still be some time before the B-21 force reaches a true operational capability even after initial fielding begins. Raider deliveries are also set to continue for years, especially if the total planned fleet rises well above 100 aircraft.

Contact the author: joe@twz.com

The U.S. Navy expects the stealthy destroyer USS Zumwalt, with its new launchers for Intermediate-Range Conventional Prompt Strike (IRCPS) hypersonic missiles, to be formally returned to service by September. Upgrade work on the ship, which started back in 2023, is some 10 months behind schedule. One contributing factor in the delay was the first full shutdown of the notoriously complex Integrated Power System (IPS) since the ship was delivered to the Navy six years ago. IPS is a power plant that provides massive amounts of electricity to propel the ship and run its advanced systems.

The Government Accountability Office (GAO), a congressional watchdog, provided new details on the hypersonic missile upgrades for USS Zumwalt, also known by its hull number DDG-1000, in a report released today. The four new launch tubes, each of which will be able to hold three IRCPS missiles, notably take the place of the destroyer’s original pair of 155mm Advanced Gun Systems (AGS).

Zumwalt has also been receiving other improvements, including expanded fuel capacity allowing for increased range and endurance, as well as undergoing routine maintenance, in parallel to the IRCPS integration. The Navy refers to all of this work, collectively, as the Build Yard Modernization Period (BYMP).

The Navy’s other two Zumwalt class destroyers – the USS Michael Monsoor (DDG-1001) and the future USS Lyndon B. Johnson (DDG-1002) – are set to receive the same complete slate of modifications. Work on the Lyndon B. Johnson is already underway as part of the larger process of delivering that ship, which is now scheduled for April 2027. The service also eventually plans to integrate IRCPS onto Block V Virginia class submarines.

The Navy’s IRCPS program is also being run in close cooperation with the U.S. Army. The missile at the core of IRCPS is the same one the Army is working to field in ground-based configuration, which it calls Dark Eagle.

The weapon itself consists of a multi-stage ballistic missile-like rocket booster with an unpowered hypersonic boost-glide vehicle on top. The booster gets the vehicle to an optimal speed and altitude, after which it is released. After separating from the booster, the vehicle glides along a relatively shallow flight path within the Earth’s atmosphere to its target, maneuvering along the way, sometimes erratically. In general, hypersonic boost-glide vehicles offer a combination of speed, flight trajectory, and maneuverability that creates distinct challenges for enemy forces. The vehicles are difficult to spot and track, let alone intercept. Their speed limits the time an opponent has to react in other ways. The ability to pierce enemy air defenses and rapidly strike very high-value targets, even ones that may be fleeting, is what makes hypersonic weapons of this type attractive.

“Over the past year, the cost and schedule performance on the first ship to undergo this [IRCPS and other upgrade] work, the DDG 1000, has degraded,” according to GAO’s report. “Program officials reported that the primary cause of recent delays is unplanned work.”

As already noted, one “source of unplanned work and delays per program officials is that this is the first time that the Navy has shut down and restarted key DDG 1000 class ship systems,” per GAO. “For example, equipment failures in the ship’s complex electrical system, which is akin to a small power plant, contributed to delays.”

Zumwalt‘s IPS is a hybrid-electric system that combines gas turbines and electric generators. Hybrid propulsion is not unique, broadly speaking, to this class of ships, but the DDG-1000 design takes it to a completely different level. IPS can generate up to “approximately 78 megawatts of power, nearly what a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier generates,” according to the Navy. It is also said to be able to pump out 58 megawatts of reserve power even while cruising at 20 knots. This level of power generation is essential to support the ship’s array of advanced capabilities, but it also comes with complexities that have proven troublesome over the years.

Integrated Power System (IPS)

In addition, “the unplanned work addresses the need for more cabling than was anticipated in the initial project design, as the contractor cut and removed more cabling than planned from the forward part of the ship for CPS missile launch tube installation,” the report adds. “The additional cabling was needed to match changes to the ship configuration since new construction cables were installed as part of the BYMP.”

Overall, “program officials noted that the Navy modified the BYMP contract with Huntington Ingalls in August 2025 to add 230,000 hours – at a cost of $20 million – for unplanned work,” according to GAO. “The program reported increasing its estimate to upgrade all three ships from $1.8 billion to at least $2 billion.”

GAO says the Navy also stressed that this is the first time it has ever integrated a hypersonic weapon onto one of its warships, and that it has been a learning experience. The service says it is working to ensure that useful lessons are being woven into ongoing work on Lyndon B. Johnson, as well as USS Michael Monsoor‘s future BYMP availability, which is slated to begin before the end of the year.

The timeline for delivery of the Lyndon B. Johnson and the upgrade schedule for Michael Monsoor are already delayed, as can be seen in the GAO graphic below. Delays have also pushed back the target date for a first live-fire at-sea IRCPS launch, a milestone now set to come next year.

The Navy and the Army have conducted several land-based launches as part of a test plan that has suffered its own setbacks in the past.

The Zumwalt class, as a whole, has suffered various trials and tribulations over the years due to a variety of factors. This includes persistent technical difficulties with various systems, especially the main AN/SPY-3 radar. There have been signs for years now that the Navy could replace the AN/SPY-3 with a version of the newer AN/SPY-6. A growing number of other Navy ships are already sailing with or are set to receive AN/SPY-6 variants. The ships have also seen other cutting-edge capabilities watered down.

Challenges facing the Zumwalt class destroyers have been compounded by the prior decision to slash planned orders for these ships from 32 to just three. This has also made the ships extremely expensive to acquire, operate, and sustain. In a separate annual assessment of major U.S. military programs released earlier this month, GAO reported that the unit cost of each of the destroyers had risen to just over $10.6 billion (inclusive of research and development costs). The total acquisition cost of the DDG-1000 program is now nearly $32 billion. For comparison, the price tag on a new Flight III Arleigh Burke class destroyer is around $2.5 billion, according to data released last year by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).

Broader questions have been raised about the roles and missions that the trio of Zumwalt class ships can be reasonably expected to perform. IRCPS will give the members of the Zumwalt class a new, very-long-range, high-value strategic strike role. The Navy sees this as a key capability for future high-end fights, such as one against China in the Pacific.

At the same time, GAO’s report today also highlights the small number of missiles the Navy and the Army are in the process of acquiring now for IRCPS and Dark Eagle. Prime contractor Lockheed Martin still has limited capacity to produce them, too.

“Navy data indicate that the contractor facility operations are not currently able to meet demand, making it difficult for Lockheed Martin to keep production commitments,” according to GAO. “Specifically, the facility is currently capable of producing a maximum of six to seven rounds a year out of the 12 rounds per year necessary to stabilize production.”

“Over the past 5 years, CPS costs estimates have fluctuated, driven by factors such as the Navy’s removal or addition of host platforms, revisions to total quantities, planned periodic capability insertions, and production time frames to date, among others,” per GAO’s report. “In fiscal year 2020, early in the MTA [middle tier acquisition] rapid prototyping phase, the Navy estimated it would cost about $31 billion in total lifecycle costs for a program that would deliver 262 missiles. In 2024, the Navy increased its estimate of the total cost to acquire CPS by about 30 percent while reducing the number of missiles to be procured – now $41 billion in total lifecycle costs for 224 missiles.”

“These missile quantities do not reflect a specific program requirement, according to CPS program officials, but rather modeling based on various inputs, including budget documents, analyses of industrial base capacity, and direct, ongoing collaboration with the U.S. Strategic Command and the requirements sponsor – OPNAV N97 [the Undersea Warfare Division within the Office of the Chief of Naval Operations],” the report also notes. “Additionally, the Army is planning to spend more than $10 billion to procure 48 missiles and associated ground support equipment.”

As of April 2026, the average estimated unit cost for each missile was pegged at approximately $67 million. GAO points out that “the exact unit cost will depend on the contractor’s efficiency in production, which is, in part, dependent on stable annual procurement funding for the missile.”

USS Zumwalt‘s formal return to the fleet as the Navy’s first vessel equipped to fire hypersonic missiles will be an important milestone. However, signs still very much point to IRCPS being a relatively limited and costly capability, likely to be held in reserve for very high-priority targets, at least in the near term.

Contact the author: joe@twz.com

The next NATO airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) platform will be Saab’s GlobalEye, as announced today during the alliance’s summit in Ankara, Turkey. The decision to buy up to 10 GlobalEyes for NATO comes after Sweden, France, and Canada all selected the platform, and amid a flurry of new orders for military equipment as part of a wider alliance defense spending drive.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said today that NATO will begin formal negotiations with Saab regarding the acquisition of the GlobalEye. The system will combine Saab’s Erieye Extended Range radar, other sensors, and a command and control (C2) system on a Canadian-made Bombardier Global 6500 bizjet airframe. At this point, Saab has not signed a contract or received an order.

“We are honored and proud to support NATO in its next-generation AEW&C capability,” said Micael Johansson, president and CEO of Saab. “We are confident that GlobalEye is the right choice for the alliance, delivering proven capability, adaptability and long-term operational advantage. Today’s announcement clearly positions GlobalEye as the world-leading solution for advanced airborne early warning and control. We look forward to the next steps in the negotiations.”

NATO’s decision to choose GlobalEye is significant for the Alliance, for Sweden and for the transatlantic defence industrial base. It recognises Swedish technology and is a concrete Swedish contribution to NATO’s deterrence, defence and future air surveillance. (1/3) pic.twitter.com/uX9QR7Fuoq

— Pål Jonson (@PlJonson) July 7, 2026

The alliance badly needs a replacement for its fleet of 14 Boeing E-3A Sentry Airborne Warning And Control Systems (AWACS) aircraft that are operated by the NATO Airborne Early Warning & Control Force (NAEW&CF), home-stationed at Geilenkirchen Air Base in Germany.

The GlobalEye’s path to success with NATO has been somewhat circuitous.

Back in 2023, NATO had announced its plan to “take steps toward acquiring” six Boeing E-7A Wedgetail AEW&C aircraft, the first part of an effort known as Initial Alliance Future Surveillance and Control (iAFSC).

NATO’s original choice of the E-7 took into account price and availability, as well as previous E-7 acquisition programs, namely in Australia, South Korea, Turkey, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

At that time, NATO determined that the E-7 was “the only known system currently capable of fulfilling the strategic commands’ essential operational requirements and key performance parameters and available for delivery within the timeframe required.”

But last November, the Dutch Ministry of Defense announced that NATO had dropped its plan to buy E-7s, saying that the program had lost its “strategic and financial basis.” The decision was also driven by confusion about the future of the U.S. Air Force’s Wedgetail plans.

At that point, the State Secretary for Defense of the Netherlands, Gijs Tuinman, said that the goal was to have a new AEW&C aircraft operational by 2035, referencing the date that the E-3s will reach the end of their service life.

Last year, Saab said that they would be able to get the GlobalEye into operational service with NATO in 2031.

The Netherlands was one of seven partner members in the AWACS replacement program, alongside Belgium, Germany, Luxembourg, Norway, Romania, and the United States. However, the United States later departed the program.

Dropping the E-7 meant the GlobalEye became the only realistic candidate, as the only other in-production jet-powered Western AEW&C aircraft. The turboprop, carrier-capable Northrop Grumman E-2D Hawkeye is also still being built.

Also in its favor is the fact that the GlobalEye has already been ordered by France to replace its E-3F Sentry fleet, and by Sweden, and has been selected by Canada. Saab has pitched the aircraft to Denmark and Finland, with a view to them potentially jointly operating the type. The company has also confirmed that Germany and Poland have both shown “interest” in the GlobalEye.

Meanwhile, demand for AEW&C aircraft is growing across Europe as the security environment continues to deteriorate. Russia’s ongoing aggression has reinforced the need for persistent wide-area surveillance and airspace control, while a broader range of operational scenarios is also driving renewed interest in airborne early warning capabilities.

Poland is among the latest countries to invest in the capability, taking delivery of two Saab 340 twin-turboprop AEW&C aircraft fitted with Saab’s earlier Erieye radar. Similar aircraft have also been delivered to Ukraine, reflecting the growing importance of these platforms on NATO’s eastern flank.

The appearance of Russian drones inside or close to NATO airspace has only added urgency to the requirement. AEW&C aircraft offer a critical look-down capability that makes them well suited to detecting and tracking low-flying threats, including uncrewed aircraft and cruise missiles, that can be difficult for ground-based radars to spot. At the same time, they provide an airborne picture of activity across the battlespace, monitoring Russian military aircraft while also keeping watch over potentially hostile movements on the ground and at sea.

Saab notes that the GlobalEye is particularly capable at identifying low-observable and stealthy threats, as well as drones, ballistic and hypersonic missiles, even in complex environments characterized by heavy clutter and electronic jamming.

GlobalEye walk-around tour with Saab

Unclear at this stage is what will happen with NATO’s previous plans to field a crewed AEW&C aircraft as part of an integrated network of sensors, also including drones, and other aircraft types that can operate in a surveillance-gathering capacity, and space-based systems.

This reflected U.S. Air Force thinking, in which the E-7 has been viewed more as a solution to bridge the gap between the retirement of its own aging E-3s and a future space-based radar capability and other classified systems. Much of this has been driven by concerns about the survivability of traditional AEW&C platforms in more contested airspace.

For NATO nations in Europe, switching from the E-7 to the GlobalEye also reinforces the importance of investing in the continent’s own defense industry. Increasingly, officials in Europe are looking to local manufacturers to meet their defense needs, part of a wider effort to reduce their traditional reliance on the United States, which is seen as a less reliable strategic partner under the Trump administration.

Meanwhile, and in response to the deteriorating security situation facing Europe, the NATO Summit that kicked off today has seen a flurry of big-ticket acquisition programs announced. Here, however, the U.S. defense industry was well represented.

Denmark, Finland, Germany, and Norway today announced they would acquire up to five Northrop Grumman MQ-4C Triton high-altitude, long-endurance (HALE) drones. These will enhance NATO’s Alliance Ground Surveillance (AGS) fleet that operates from Sigonella Air Base in Italy and currently flies five Q-4-series drones under the name RQ-4D Phoenix. As well as operating in the Mediterranean and Black Sea, NATO noted that these drones will also fly in the increasingly strategic Arctic and the High North regions.

“Our collaboration with NATO and the U.S. Navy strengthens the alliance’s ground and maritime surveillance capabilities, said Jane Bishop, vice president and GM of Northrop Grumman’s Global Surveillance segment. “Like Phoenix, Triton conducts ISR at higher altitude and with longer endurance than medium-altitude systems, and is poised to provide NATO new levels of capability and operational flexibility to monitor and protect maritime interests from the Mediterranean to the High North.”

Unclear is whether the NATO Triton variant will be significantly different from the U.S. Navy’s, which focuses on broad-area maritime surveillance and can also conduct signals intelligence (SIGINT) work.

Other maritime patrol procurement includes an initial two P-8A Poseidon aircraft for Denmark. These will also be of particular value in the Arctic and the High North, as well as in the context of Greenland, which Trump has repeatedly said should be under U.S. control. Denmark joining the P-8 community also offers the potential for close cooperation in anti-submarine warfare with Canada, Germany, Norway, and the United Kingdom, all of which are Poseidon customers.

“With maritime patrol aircraft, Denmark’s ability to enforce sovereignty and monitor the region is significantly strengthened,” Danish Defense Minister Jeppe Bruus said in a statement.

Meanwhile, the NATO Summit today also saw Belgium, Croatia, France, Poland, Spain, Turkey, and the United Kingdom launch a program to establish a Multinational Fleet operating the Airbus A400M airlifter.

The multinational air transport initiative builds on the model of the Multinational MRTT Fleet (MMF), which operates a ‘pooling and sharing’ arrangement with Airbus A330 Multirole Tanker Transport (MRTT) aircraft on behalf of NATO.

The new A400M Multinational Fleet will address strategic airlift capability gaps among European allies, many of which lack a transport aircraft in the A400M class.

Alongside the A400M agreement, NATO announced the incorporation of Finland as a new member of the Multinational MRTT Fleet, which already included the Netherlands, Luxembourg, Norway, Germany, Belgium, the Czech Republic, Sweden, and Denmark. Nine A330 MRTTs are now in service from a total order of 12 for the MMF.

In terms of missiles, Europe still remains heavily reliant upon the United States, but efforts are being made to at least shift more production and sustainment capabilities to the continent.

With that in mind, today saw Lockheed Martin announce two initiatives to strengthen NATO’s missile industrial base by addressing both new production capacity (ATACMS) and lifecycle sustainment (PAC-3), two weapons systems that are also fundamental to Ukraine’s warfighting potential, and in constant demand from Kyiv.

For the ATACMS, Lockheed Martin has signed a memorandum of understanding covering local production of the munitions in Europe, leveraging Rheinmetall’s manufacturing capabilities.

Meanwhile, Lockheed Martin will work with Germany, the Netherlands, Poland, and Sweden to explore a dedicated PAC-3 missile maintenance facility in Europe. The proposed facility will support NATO allies operating PAC-3 Missile Segment Enhancement (MSE) and PAC-3 Cost Reduction Initiative (CRI) interceptors.

Deputy Prime Minister W. @KosiniakKamysz: We have signed an agreement with the 🇺🇸🇩🇪🇳🇱🇸🇪 regarding the creation of a service centre of PAC-3 missiles for the Patriot system. This will greatly enhance potential and speed up the production and service of these missiles. pic.twitter.com/WwE7BNivE5

— Poland MOD 🇵🇱 (@Poland_MOD) July 7, 2026

While the GlobalEye deal still has to be negotiated and finalized, today’s announcement effectively cements the type as NATO’s next airborne early warning platform. It also marks another major victory for Saab in the increasingly competitive AEW&C market, while underscoring a broader shift toward European-developed defense capabilities as the alliance races to modernize in response to the rapidly evolving security environment.

Contact the author: thomas@thewarzone.com

A UK airline has lost its last chance at a rescue deal – more than eight months after entering administration.

The firm had suffered financial difficulties after the loss of a contract with KLM.

A potential rescue deal for Eastern Airlines, and its affiliated company Air Kilroe, has fallen through – leaving administrators unable to save the regional airline.

As a result, administrators RSM UK, are set to break up and sell the businesses’ assets separately, as revealed in new documents filed by the company.

A joint sale of Eastern and Air Kilroe was initially pursued as the companies had operated under a single business – before entering into administration in November last year.

The North Lincolnshire-based airline had flown routes across the UK, Ireland and Europe, and had been operating four aircraft for KLM Cityhopper in Europe.

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However, the abrupt loss of this contract in October last year plunged the company into severe financial difficulties.

At the time of collapse, RSM said “high fixed overheads” and its staff base had “ultimately proved too high to be sustainable”.

Jamie Miller, partner at RSM UK and joint administrator, added: “The unexpected and sudden termination of Eastern’s KLM contract, along with other economic factors, unfortunately left the directors with no choice but to appoint administrators.“

Now, all nine of the company’s aircraft fleet have been sold off to private buyers, as well as associated plane parts and components.

At its peak, the airliner provided 200 flights per day and employed around 330 staff members, the majority of which have now been made redundant.

Now just 16 employees remain, and are expected to stay on until the administration process is completed.

Known as one of the UK’s last regional airlines, the firm had run a weekday service between Wick John O’Groats Airport and Aberdeen, which was seen as an essential link for those living in the most northerly point on mainland UK.

Launched in 1997, the airliner also flew from bases in East Midlands, Jersey, Manchester, Southampton and Denmark – and even held eight summer slots at London Gatwick.

RSM has declined to comment.

The U.S. Navy continues to make use of MQ-1 Predators as test and training assets, eight years after the U.S. Air Force retired the iconic drones. TWZ was first to report that the Air Force was looking at transferring some of its remaining Predators to the Navy back in 2019, but it was unclear what came of those discussions in the end. Now we know.

The Air Force officially retired the MQ-1 in 2018. At that time, the service still had dozens of these drones in its inventory. More than 50 Predators were heavily cannibalized for parts they shared with their newer cousin, the MQ-9 Reaper. A number of demilitarized examples were also put on display. Today, 15 MQ-1s remain in storage at the boneyard at Davis-Monthan Air Force Base in Arizona, and are technically the property of the National Museum of the U.S. Air Force. Then there’s the matter of the MQ-1s that went to the Navy.

“In 2019, Naval Air Warfare Center Weapons Division (NAWCWD) received 20 MQ-1 aircraft from the U.S. Air Force,” a spokesperson for NAWCWD, part of the Navy’s Naval Air Systems Command (NAVAIR), confirmed to TWZ. “These aircraft were redesignated as NMQ-1Bs to support our mission.”

The new nomenclature here is notable. In the U.S. military’s joint service designation system for aircraft and missiles, the prefix “N” refers to platforms that have been modified in some way, typically for testing purposes, that are not readily reversible. One of the better-known examples of this is the Air Force’s secretive NT-43A radar cross-section measurement platform, a heavily modified Boeing 737-200 with a completely new and enlarged nose, as well as a huge radome extending from the tail. Other “N” aircraft that various branches of the U.S. military have operated over the years have had far less dramatic modifications. How exactly the NMQ-1B configuration differs from a typical MQ-1B is unclear.

“NAWCWD is an RDT&E [research, development, test and evaluation] command and the platforms were acquired to support our targets department,” they added when asked for more information. “The NMQ-1B platform is being used for test and training. We have nothing further to provide at this time.”

TWZ had reached out to the Navy for more details after the Air Force had also confirmed the transfer of the MQ-1s. We had asked the Air Force about the status of any Predators still in its inventory after U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) confirmed the loss of an “MQ-1” to Iranian fire at the end of May. By all indications, what Iran shot down was actually a U.S. Army MQ-1C Gray Eagle, a design that evolved from the Predator, but that is distinctly different.

When the Air Force retired the MQ-1, the service still had dozens of airworthy examples. TWZ pointed out at the time that at least a portion of them could end up as targets for air-to-air and surface-to-air weapons, as well as sensor testing and other weapons testing. The fact that NAWCWD says it is still using the drones today would seem to point more to the latter than the former, though anti-air missile testing does not necessarily have to entail the destruction of the target.

For instance, certain kinds of testing of some missile seekers can be done without it ever leaving a rail on an aircraft or a launcher on the ground. The Navy and Air Force test communities also use specialized podded systems to support the development and evaluation of new and improved seekers for anti-air missiles, something we have explored in detail in the past. Even live fire tests do not always result in the target being destroyed if that is not the intended outcome. Just by removing the warhead, missiles will still pass within lethal distance with their proximity fuzes being triggered to confirm a simulated kill. The missile will fly on, and the target will survive to live another day.

As noted, at least based on the NMQ-1B designation, the Navy’s Predators have been altered in some significant way. One possibility is that they have been modified to be able to mimic an array of different radar, infrared, and/or other signatures. In this way, a Predator could offer a lower-cost and long-endurance flying asset capable of replicating a variety of aerial threats to support testing and training requirements. The U.S. military already uses smaller crewed aircraft as surrogates for cruise missiles and long-range kamikaze drones, as can be seen in the TWZ video below. This is in addition to target drones specifically built for this purpose.

These aircraft masquerade as enemy Shahed-136 drones during U.S. military war games

The NMQ-1Bs could also be modified in a variety of other ways to support more specific NAWCWD requirements, or to make them more adaptable to meet changing demands. The standard MQ-1B variant also features two underwing hardpoints that could be used to carry various stores, such as countermeasures and small munitions. This would further expand the Predator’s flexibility as a test and training asset from one sortie to the next. Being able to more readily modify or swap out the drone’s internal systems, as well as the software running them, would also be a boon for its current role.

Despite being housed within NAWCWD’s targets department, depending on their current configuration, the NMQ-1Bs could also help monitor missile and other test activities, or even act as signal relays. Before armed MQ-1 versions arrived, RQ-1 Predators were already flying surveillance and reconnaissance missions using infrared and electro-optical full-motion video cameras in turrets under their noses. The drones could also be fitted with small radars with synthetic aperture modes capable of capturing still imagery, even through cloud cover, smoke, and dust, and at night.

News that the Navy is still using Predators for testing and training purposes certainly comes at a time when drone threats at home and abroad have become firmly top of mind for the U.S. military. For American authorities, the ability of long-range kamikaze drones, in particular, to hold prized assets at risk was just highlighted by the latest conflict with Iran. Russia’s ongoing war against Ukraine, as well as other conflicts globally in recent years, have also underscored this reality. For years now, TWZ has been calling attention to the dangers that various tiers of uncrewed aerial systems pose, which are only set to continue to expand in scale and scope.

Confirmation that NAWCWD continues to operate a fleet of NMQ-1Bs also comes amid a surge in U.S. military flight testing activities, and commensurate demand for supporting test assets. This is being driven heavily by a flurry of next-generation aircraft and missile developments, as well as efforts to modernize existing platforms to keep pace.

Around their retirement, there were rumors that the remaining MQ-1 fleet could be used to test cooperative swarming capabilities, including hardware, software, and communications networks. There is no hard proof that this occurred, but it seems quite plausible considering the timing and how well-known and adaptable the Predator was at the time.

Using surrogate drones in the development of autonomy agents, teaming architectures, and swarming capabilities is now a very well-established practice. The big question is that if these Predators are still flying, or at least have been since their retirement, how is it that we have not caught a glimpse of them? One answer would be that this work was done at clandestine test facilities like Area 51 or even less secretive but still somewhat remote locales. If this is the case, these aircraft likely have historic significance, paving the way to the autonomous air combat revolution currently underway.

Overall, how much longer the Navy might continue to make use of the NMQ-1Bs remains to be seen. The service’s test community has already given the iconic Predator nearly a decade of extra life.

Contact the author: joe@twz.com

Members of Congress are again moving to block the U.S. Air Force from retiring all of its U-2S Dragon Lady spy planes. This time, legislators also want to compel the service to “fully restore” four of the iconic aircraft through heavy depot maintenance, which would bolster the fleet’s operational capacity. The Air Force continues to argue that the high-flying Cold War-era jets are too vulnerable to support future high-end fights and should be supplanted by a mix of space-based and other capabilities. This would presumably include a classified stealthy high-altitude drone, commonly (and unofficially) referred to as the RQ-180, or an evolution thereof, which first emerged publicly just earlier this year.

Yesterday, the House Appropriations Committee released a draft defense spending bill for the 2027 Fiscal Year. It includes a provision that would prevent the Air Force from retiring more than two U-2Ss in that fiscal cycle. The Air Force currently has 23 of these aircraft in inventory, including three two-seat TU-2S trainers.

A summary of the proposed legislation also says it includes “$81 million for U-2 programmed depot maintenance to fully restore four aircraft.” The current operational status of the aircraft in question is unclear. This is included under the umbrella of $335.3 billion in total funding for operation and maintenance (O&M) accounts across the services that the draft bill would appropriate for Fiscal Year 2027.

Programmed depot maintenance for any aircraft is an intensive process that essentially involves a full tear-down and detailed inspection. Paint and other coatings are typically stripped and reapplied. Upgrades and modifications are often worked into depot maintenance cycles given the extensive work already being done.

U-2 Dragon Lady Maintenance

The Air Force’s proposed budget for the 2027 Fiscal Year completely zeroes out the line for U-2 O&M, to include depot maintenance, reflecting the service’s desire to retire the fleet. An annual force structure report the Pentagon released in May concisely outlines the current argument for retiring the remaining U-2Ss.

“The Air Force will retire the entire 23-ship U-2 fleet, as the platform is no longer viable for future high-end conflicts,” the force structure report says. “Continued operation presents significant safety, logistical, and financial risks that outweigh the platform’s remaining utility in contested environments.”

“This decision allows for the strategic reallocation of fiscal resources to fund more critical, high-priority service requirements and accelerate modernization efforts in other key areas,” it adds. “Continuing to operate the U-2 fleet would require a significant investment to address systemic issues, including diminishing manufacturing capacity, material shortages, and safety risks inherent in the aging platform.”

Questions about the continued relevance of the U-2 in the face of an ever-expanding global air defense threat ecosystem are not new. Near-peer competitors like China and Russia, as well as lower-tier potential adversaries like Iran, continue to develop and field more capable air defense systems and expand their anti-access and area denial bubbles. This, in turn, has threatened to push the U-2 further and further from the areas where it would be tasked to collect.

On top of all this, the U-2s are aging and becoming more costly to operate and maintain. The U-2S models in service today were upgraded from earlier variants that began their service careers in the 1980s.

As noted, this is not the first time the Air Force has tried to retire its remaining U-2s, citing operational and sustainment-related factors. In response, Congress has repeatedly intervened in the past few years to at least block full divestment of the fleet over persistent concerns about the aerial intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) capability and capacity gap that might result.

The Dragon Lady continues to offer a unique ISR platform that can fly higher than any other operational non-orbital platform, crewed or uncrewed, the U.S. military has, at least from what we know today. This, in turn, means that the aircraft can bring imaging, signals intelligence, communications payloads, and other sensors up to those altitudes, giving them particularly good fields of view. From this perch, aircraft can use a slant angle to peer deep into denied areas while still flying international airspace and further away from potential threats. The use of the U-2 to gather intelligence about a Chinese spy balloon that soared over parts of the United States and Canada in 2023, which involved flying above it, offered a particularly public demonstration of the value of the aircraft’s high-altitude capabilities.

Each Dragon Lady can also carry a wide array of different sensor systems simultaneously, as well as communications packages, further increasing its flexibility. The U-2Ss have the ability to be readily deployed to forward locations globally and conduct long-duration sorties, as well. The latter points have been especially relevant in comparison to known existing ISR satellite constellations that are constrained by their orbits and can only offer relatively short-term coverage over a specific area. We will come back to this in a moment.

It is worth noting here that the Air Force’s Dragon Lady fleet also has a long history now of providing valuable ISR support outside of traditional combat operations. Last year, the service confirmed U-2Ss were supporting the enhanced border security mission along the United States’ southern boundary with Mexico. The aircraft have been used to support counter-narcotics operations over the years, as well as humanitarian assistance and disaster relief missions. NASA also operates a pair of ER-2 aircraft, another version of the Dragon Lady, as high-flying scientific research platforms.

The Air Force has been hinting for years now at the existence of advanced aircraft in the classified realm that could help fill gaps left by the retirement of the U-2, and also be more survivable in very high-threat environments. This has now been further underscored by the emergence of the ‘RQ-180,’ or a related stealthy design, in Greece earlier this year, the likely capabilities and roles of which TWZ explored in a detailed feature in April. At the same time, we have raised still unanswered questions in the past about how many of any such drones might actually be in service and what kind of operational capacity those fleets might provide.

June 19 (UPI) — A Boeing 747-200 made its last flight as Air Force One after it brought President Donald Trump home from Europe this week.

“Well done, good and faithful servant,” White House Communications Director Steven Cheung posted Thursday on X. “The Last Ride.”

White House Deputy Chief of Staff Dan Scavino also posted a tribute with a video on X.

“I have been fortunate to fly around the world on this iconic plane for 5½ years – of the 35 years it has been serving the U.S. Presidents…THANK YOU… .”

There are two 747-200s working as Air Force One, designated VC-25A by the Air Force. The two have tail numbers 28000 and 29000. The latter is retiring.

The plane has been in operation since 1990, with President George H.W. Bush as its first presidential passenger.

“The VC-25B Bridge aircraft will soon join the active executive airlift fleet alongside the VC-25A and C-32,” an Air Force spokesperson said.

Three 747-800s are being prepared to step in, including the luxury jet donated by the Qatari government. Officials have said it should be ready for use this summer and that the Air Force had finished its modifications and testing of the craft.

Gen. Dale White, the Department of Defense’s direct reporting portfolio manager for critical major weapons systems, said in a May statement that the Qatari plane will “relieve pressure on the aging VC-25A fleet.”

“Ultimately, the Bridge aircraft fulfills a critical short-term requirement, guaranteeing the Air Force continues to execute its no-fail mission for the commander in chief while laying a rock-solid foundation for the future,” the release said.

The new planes will have Trump’s preferred color scheme of red, white, gold and dark blue. He proposed the change while in office for his first term, but President Joe Biden reversed the plan back to the traditional colors. When Trump was re-elected, the new color scheme was once again adopted.

The prestigious Russian Navy base at Kronstadt, near St. Petersburg, came under Ukrainian drone attack overnight, in what may well be the first strike of its kind against the Baltic Fleet. Ukrainian drones targeted the naval base, including the Project 20380 Steregushchiy class corvette Boikiy, highlighting the fact that Russian warships are vulnerable even when hundreds of miles from Ukraine’s borders.

According to the official account of the Ukrainian 414th Separate Unmanned Strike Aviation System Brigade on X, the corvette was set ablaze while in the Veleshchynskyi dry dock in Kronstadt, where it is said to have entered scheduled maintenance in February of this year. The same account posted a video showing the attack. While we are used to kamikaze drone video feeds cutting out just before detonation, the fact that multiple drones were involved means we can see the burning vessel from several angles.

Reportedly, the drones that hit the corvette were from the 1st Separate Center of Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces. Considering the long distance to the target, it is interesting to note that video from the seekers was available. This indicates that either a local operator on the ground was involved in targeting and recording the feed, or otherwise a satcom link was used to do the same. While it is conceivable that the drones used autonomous guidance, they would still have needed someone nearby or connected via satcom to record the seeker’s view. Another possibility is that shorter-range drones were used for the attack, something that Ukraine has done before for attacks deep in Russia, although this seems less likely here.

Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces stated that the Boikiy was involved in escorting ships associated with Russia’s so-called shadow fleet, the collection of older tankers operating under foreign flags that Moscow relies on to export oil despite Western sanctions. According to Ukrainian officials, Russia has increasingly tasked Baltic Fleet vessels with escort, monitoring, and security missions for these tankers as they transit the Baltic Sea carrying sanctioned Russian oil to markets prepared to bypass Western restrictions.

The Steregushchiy class ships are among Russia’s more modern corvettes. With a standard displacement of 1,800 tons, a length of 343 feet, and a flight deck for a helicopter, the corvettes are closer to frigates, according to some classification systems. Their primary armament consists of two quadruple launchers for Uran anti-ship missiles, a 12-cell Redut vertical launch system for various air defense missiles, and two quadruple tubes for Paket-NK anti-torpedo/anti-submarine torpedoes.

The attack on the naval base was part of a wider Ukrainian drone barrage directed against other military and energy sites in and around St. Petersburg early on Wednesday. Footage of the attacks showed drones, reportedly FP-1/2 types, low over the Gulf of Finland and in the skies above the city.

The attacks occurred just hours before international guests gathered for the city’s flagship economic forum. “The Petersburg forum is opening with a nice plume of black smoke in the background after Ukrainian strikes,” posted Serhiy Sternenko, an adviser to the Ukrainian defence minister.

Several long-range drones also crashed into oil storage facilities in St. Petersburg after Russian air defenses reportedly tried unsuccessfully to shoot them down. Loud explosions were heard, and black smoke could be seen rising from the blazing oil terminal, one of the largest on Russia’s Baltic Sea coast.

In this footage you can even see two Ukrainian drones flying in formation over the oil terminal in Saint Petersburg, Russia, with one dive-bombing into the oil terminal. pic.twitter.com/eMUdpwsDiz

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) June 3, 2026

The entire city of Saint Petersburg, Russia, received a front row seat for the destruction of the local oil terminal. This includes also the attendees of St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF), which will start today. pic.twitter.com/HxDsF6kQ6p

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) June 3, 2026

Russian authorities confirmed that the attacks had taken place, with St. Petersburg’s governor, Alexander Beglov, saying that the Kirovsky and Krasnoselsky districts had been targeted.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, writing on social media, said that drones had hit “important facilities on Russian territory,” including the St. Petersburg oil terminal, the Kronstadt base, and a weapons factory in the Tambov region.

“I thank our warriors for their precision. Ukraine’s plan for long-range sanctions is being implemented exactly as needed to bring peace closer,” Zelensky said.

Our long-range sanctions carried out by the warriors of the Security Service of Ukraine, the Unmanned Systems Forces, the Special Operations Forces, the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine, and the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine have yielded good results. Important facilities… pic.twitter.com/esxYMexU8d

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) June 3, 2026

The significance of the strikes is manifold.

First off, the drone strikes have a highly symbolic value, and will be especially embarrassing for the Kremlin, since they come immediately in advance of the three-day annual summit being held in St. Petersburg, and billed as Russia’s answer to Davos.

The Saint Petersburg International Economic Forum of 2026 (SPIEF 2026) in Russia has started with a very fiery keynote speech by the Ukrainian surprise guests. pic.twitter.com/VVIuGcQCO7

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) June 3, 2026

Guests arrived for today’s opening ceremony under a pall of thick smoke, and Russian President Vladimir Putin is due to make a keynote speech at the event on Friday. There was further disruption for arriving guests as St. Petersburg’s airport was temporarily closed.

Secondly, the drone strikes underscore Ukraine’s ability to strike targets deep within Russia, using a growing array of long-range one-way attack drones and cruise missiles. The targets are around 680 miles from the nearest Ukrainian border.

Finally, by targeting Kronstadt, the attacks also signify the opening up of a new front in the drone war, namely against the Baltic Fleet while it is in port.

A fire has reportedly broken out aboard the Russian warship Boykiy in Kronstadt near St. Petersburg following Ukraine’s latest drone attack.

The corvette repeatedly escorted vessels from Russia’s shadow oil fleet through the English Channel in recent years. pic.twitter.com/Zhsn3nVsVp

— KyivPost (@KyivPost) June 3, 2026

Located on Kotlin Island in the Gulf of Finland, about 18 miles west of St. Petersburg, Kronstadt is one of the principal bases associated with the Baltic Fleet. Today, it primarily hosts corvettes and patrol vessels, naval support ships, training units, as well as repair and maintenance facilities. Since any naval threat approaching St. Petersburg from the Gulf of Finland must pass near Kronstadt, the base effectively acts as the maritime gateway to Russia’s second-largest city.

There have been very few confirmed Ukrainian attacks of any kind on the Baltic Fleet compared with the extensive campaign waged against Russia’s Black Sea Fleet.

In April 2024, there was a fire on a Russian warship at Baltiysk in Kaliningrad. The fire damaged communications and electronic systems aboard the Buyan class corvette Serpukhov. A Ukrainian military intelligence official subsequently claimed that this was the result of a covert joint operation conducted by his GUR agency and a pro-Kyiv Russian military group.

📹 For the first time in the war, an attack took place in the Baltic Sea, the Russian Serpukhov missile ship was burned in Kaliningrad.
The Buyan-M class Serpukhov corvette belonging to the Russian navy was burned by Ukrainian sabotage teams.
The ship was severely damaged. pic.twitter.com/Isl9sVWF1R

— Mete Sohtaoğlu (@metesohtaoglu) April 9, 2024

So far, of course, Ukraine’s naval campaign has focused overwhelmingly on the Russian Black Sea Fleet. Many successful attacks have been recorded against Black Sea Fleet vessels and facilities, forcing the general evacuation of Russian naval assets from occupied Crimea and to bases in Russia proper.

In recent months, Ukraine has waged an aerial campaign to disrupt Russia’s economy. Long-range drones have hit ports and oil storage facilities, military factories, and airbases. There has also been an uptick in attacks against tankers and trucks moving between occupied southern Ukraine and Crimea, leading to fuel shortages across the peninsula.

Meanwhile, the scale of Russian missile and drone attacks on Ukraine remains undiminished. On Monday, a barrage of Russian strikes killed 23 people across Ukraine and injured many more. This led Zelenskyy to renew his plea for the U.S. government to provide Kyiv with more Patriot missiles. Today, he said that “an agreement at the highest political level on the purchase of Patriot systems […] is awaiting implementation at the financial, legal, and technical levels.”

I held a meeting on additional ways to supply air defense to Ukraine – both systems and interceptors. We have an agreement at the highest political level on the purchase of Patriot systems, and this agreement is awaiting implementation at the financial, legal, and technical…

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) June 3, 2026

Whether or not the overnight strike caused significant damage, its strategic message was unmistakable. By reaching Kronstadt, one of Russia’s most historic naval bases, Ukraine demonstrated that even the Baltic Fleet is no longer beyond its reach. The attack highlights Kyiv’s growing long-range capabilities and signals that Russia’s efforts to protect both its regular fleet and its shadow oil-export network may face increasing pressure, even far from the front lines.

Contact the author: thomas@thewarzone.com

On March 11, the Thai cargo ship Mayuree Naree was struck by two projectiles while crossing the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important waterways located between Iran and Oman. A fire broke out in the engine room, and while 20 sailors were rescued, three remained trapped inside the stricken vessel. Their remains were found weeks later when a specialised rescue team boarded the vessel, which had run aground on the shores of Iran’s Qeshm island.

At about the same time, a “shadow fleet” of tankers continued to navigate the very same waters safely. Operating with fake flags, disabled signals and unspecified destinations, this covert armada survived because it operates outside the traditional rules of maritime trade.

Iran threatened to block “enemy” ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz – a crucial chokepoint for a fifth of the world’s oil – in the wake of the United States-Israeli war launched on February 28. Soon, navigation through the strait was disrupted amid fears of attacks.

Following a temporary ceasefire on April 8, the United States imposed a full naval blockade on Iranian ports on April 13. Theoretically, traffic through the strait should have come to a complete halt.

However, tracking data reveals a remarkably different reality.

An exclusive Al Jazeera open-source investigation tracked 202 voyages made by 185 vessels through the strait between March 1 and April 15, navigating both under fire and across blockade lines.

The numbers behind the shadows

To understand how the strait operated under extreme pressure, Al Jazeera’s Digital Investigative Unit monitored the waterway daily, cross-referencing vessel International Maritime Organization (IMO) numbers with international sanction lists from the US Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), the European Union, the United Kingdom and the United Nations. An IMO number is a unique seven-digit figure assigned to commercial ships.

Of the tracked voyages, 77 (38.5 percent) were directly or indirectly linked to Iran. Notably, 61 of the ships transiting the strait were explicitly listed on international sanctions lists.

The investigation divided the conflict into three distinct phases to map the fleet’s behaviour:

• Phase 1: Open War (March 1 – April 6): 126 ships crossed the strait, peaking at 30 vessels on March 1. Among these, 46 were linked to Iran.
• Phase 2: The Truce (April 7 – 13): 49 ships crossed during this fragile pause. More than 40 percent of these vessels were tied to Iran, including the US-sanctioned, Iranian-flagged Roshak, which successfully exited the Gulf.
• Phase 3: The US Blockade (April 13 – 15): Despite the explicit naval blockade, 25 ships crossed the strait.

Breaking the blockade

When the US blockade took effect, the shadow fleet adapted immediately.

The Iranian cargo ship “13448” successfully broke the blockade. Because it is a smaller vessel operating in coastal waters, it lacks an official IMO number, allowing it to evade traditional sanction-monitoring tools. The vessel departed Iran’s Al Hamriya port and reached Karachi, Pakistan.

Similarly, the Panama-flagged Manali broke the blockade, crossing on April 14 and penetrating the cordon again on April 17 en route to Mumbai, India.

The investigation uncovered widespread manipulation of Automatic Identification System (AIS) trackers. Vessels such as the US-sanctioned Flora, Genoa and Skywave deliberately disabled or jammed their signals to hide their identities and destinations.

Fake flags and shell companies

To obscure ultimate ownership, the shadow fleet heavily relies on a complex web of “false flags” and shell companies. The investigation identified 16 ships operating under fake flags, including registries from landlocked nations like Botswana and San Marino, as well as others from Madagascar, Guinea, Haiti and Comoros.

The operational network managing these ships spans the globe. Operating firms were primarily based in Iran (15.7 percent), China (13 percent), Greece (more than 11 percent) and the United Arab Emirates (9.7 percent). Notably, the operators of nearly 19 percent of the observed vessels remain unknown.

The toll of a parallel system

Despite the intense military pressure, energy carriers dominated the traffic, with 68 ships (36.2 percent) transporting crude oil, petroleum products and gas. Ten of these tankers were directly linked to Iran. Non-oil trade also persisted, with 57 bulk and general cargo ships crossing during the open war phase, 41 of which were tied to Tehran.

Before the war, at least 100 ships crossed the Strait of Hormuz daily. Today, a staggering 20,000 sailors are trapped on 2,000 ships across the Gulf – a crisis the International Maritime Organization described as unprecedented since World War II.

A shadow Iranian fleet, meanwhile, has been navigating seamlessly as part of a parallel maritime system born from 47 years of US sanctions on Tehran. Washington slapped sanctions on Tehran following the 1979 Islamic revolution that toppled the pro-Washington ruler Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. The two countries have had no diplomatic ties since 1980.