Fighters

Footage has emerged showing the destruction of a drone by a French Rafale fighter over Latvia earlier today. The engagement underscores how the drone war unleashed by the Russian invasion of Ukraine is increasingly spilling over borders, as well as the growing reality of the drone threat to NATO.

The French Air and Space Force confirmed that its Rafales, currently deployed in neighboring Lithuania, were scrambled in response to the drone incursion. The drone was identified before one of the fighters shot it down over an uninhabited area. The incident was a “demonstration of the French Armed Forces’ commitment to contributing to the security of Europe’s eastern flank,” the service said in a statement on X.

A detachment of French Air and Space Force Rafale jets is currently engaged in the NATO Baltic Air Policing mission from Šiauliai Air Base, Lithuania.

This is not the first time that a NATO fighter has shot down a drone in the Baltic region as part of the Baltic Air Policing mission. On May 19 of this year, a Romanian F-16 shot down a Ukrainian drone over Estonia after it strayed into NATO airspace, reportedly due to Russian electronic warfare interference. Last September, NATO fighters shot down at least three, and likely four, Russian drones, after 19 reported violations of Polish airspace. Polish authorities assessed that the drones “did not veer off course but were deliberately targeted.”

However, this is the first time that an incident of this kind has been captured on camera.

At least two videos are now circulating on social media showing the engagement playing out.

One shows the moment that a Rafale launches an air-to-air missile, leaving a prominent trail of smoke, before detonating seconds later.

Another video, from a different angle, shows the immediate aftermath of the shootdown. Another trail is seen in the background of both videos, but it’s unclear if this is evidence of a previous missile launch, or a contrail from another aircraft that previously transited the airspace at a different altitude.

In a typical Baltic Air Policing configuration, the Rafale is armed with MICA air-to-air missiles. These beyond-visual-range weapons can be fitted with either an active radar seeker or an infrared seeker head, with a mix normally being loaded. The MICA uses a thrust-vectoring motor for improved agility and has a reported maximum range of around 37 miles.

📍 Lituanie | Le succès des vols conjoints commence au sol 🇫🇷🤝🇷🇴
 
➡️ Préparation d’un vol d’entraînement avec des avions de chasse 🇫🇷 et 🇷🇴 :

🔧 Montage d’armements entre mécaniciens des deux pays alliés

💬 Échanges sur les procédures, matériel et méthodes des équipes… pic.twitter.com/LPYygu0P5r

— Armée française – Opérations militaires (@EtatMajorFR) June 6, 2026

The Latvian Armed Forces provided more details of the shootdown, noting that a yellow alert was originally issued for the Ludza, Balvi, and Aluksne districts this morning at 9:20 a.m. local time. This led to NATO fighters being launched.

At 9:40 a.m., this alert level was increased to orange for the Ludza and Rēzekne districts. At this point, it was confirmed that some kind of drone was entering Latvian airspace. A military spokesperson told the Reuters news agency that the drone entered Latvian airspace from Russia.

🟠 Izsludināts gaisa telpas apdraudējums Krāslavas un Ludzas novados, informē Nacionālie bruņotie spēki.

Brīdinājums par iespējamu gaisa telpas apdraudējumu izsludināts Rēzeknes un Balvu novados. pic.twitter.com/PFcMZmhhga

— LTV Panorāma (@ltvpanorama) June 8, 2026

The Latvian Armed Forces warned residents in these areas to “Seek shelter indoors, close windows and doors — follow the two-wall principle.” It added: “If you notice a low-flying, suspicious, or dangerous object, do not approach it and call 112.”

At 10:05 a.m., the Latvian Armed Forces confirmed that NATO fighters were over the Rēzekne district, and a “foreign” drone was shot down over the Berzgale parish.

Berzgale is less than 20 miles from the nearest Russian border, and around 340 miles from the closest Ukrainian border, with Belarus, a close Moscow ally, separating Latvia and Ukraine.

NATO’s Baltic Air Policing mission has safeguarded the airspace of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania since the three countries joined the alliance in 2004. Because the Baltic states do not maintain fighter fleets capable of continuous air-defense duties, allied nations rotate detachments of combat aircraft to bases in Lithuania and Estonia, where they remain on quick-reaction alert around the clock.

The mission routinely scrambles fighters to identify and intercept Russian military aircraft operating near NATO airspace, particularly flights to and from Russia’s heavily militarized Kaliningrad exclave that often occur without flight plans, radio contact, or active transponders.

Following Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, NATO expanded the mission with additional aircraft and operating locations, making Baltic Air Policing one of the alliance’s most visible peacetime deterrence operations on its eastern flank.

Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the expanding drone war between the two countries has provided another layer of responsibility to the Baltic Air Policing mission.

For most of its history, Baltic Air Policing centered on scrambling fighters to identify Russian bombers, fighters, reconnaissance aircraft, and transports flying near NATO airspace. The war in Ukraine has seen the increasing proliferation of drones that can travel hundreds or even thousands of miles, creating a new challenge for NATO air defenses.

Since 2022, there have been several incidents, including drones and missile debris entering or crashing in NATO territory, including in Poland and Romania. Late last month, a Russian kamikaze drone strayed into Romanian airspace before striking a residential building, injuring civilians, in what appears to have been the first incident of its kind.

A russian drone carrying explosives, involved in the bombing of infrastructure in Ukraine crashed in Galați, Romania, causing a fire on the roof of a residential apartment building.

Two persons sustained minor injuries and several residents required medical attention, the… pic.twitter.com/P8jzYFrEEp

— Toiu Oana (@oana_toiu) May 29, 2026

We asked NATO for more details of today’s incident, including whether it could confirm reports citing the Latvian military that the drone had entered its airspace as a result of Russian electronic warfare. This is a threat that is by now commonplace in the Baltic region.

“While the circumstances surrounding this incident are still under review, jamming is known to occur in this region, and can pose serious safety risks, including to civil aviation,” a spokesperson for the alliance told us.

In recent days, Ukraine has carried out a number of high-profile drone attacks against Russian targets in and around the Baltic region.

In the last week, Ukrainian drones appear to have hit the St. Petersburg oil terminal, the Baltic Fleet base at Kronstadt, and a weapons factory in the Tambov region.

As we observed in our previous reporting, there have been very few confirmed Ukrainian attacks of any kind against the Baltic Fleet. However, satellite and other imagery that emerged in the wake of the recent drone strike reveals extensive damage inflicted on the  Steregushchiy class corvette Boikiy.

Footage of the Russian Navy Baltic Sea Fleet corvette Boikiy burning in its Kronstadt drydock after a Ukrainian drone strike yesterday. pic.twitter.com/9CHz4aLdY8

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) June 4, 2026

Another satellite image of the Russian corvette Boikiy following yesterday’s Ukrainian strike. What is interesting here is that the active fire was captured before firefighting crews managed to extinguish it. @planet image taken on June 3 at 16:30 local time. It burned for hours. pic.twitter.com/PzcHxoSxGk

— Mark Krutov (@kromark) June 4, 2026

Today’s incident provides visual evidence of advanced NATO fighters used to shoot down drones over alliance territory. While effective on this occasion, this kind of interception can be inefficient due to the mismatch in cost between the drone and missile. It is notable that the French Ministry of Defense has plans to introduce a lower-cost counter-drone capability on the Rafale by the summer. Trials of a pod loaded with 68mm laser-guided rockets have already begun.

Un Rafale équipé de roquettes guidées laser aperçu à Istres. Les essais ont donc enfin démarré. Ici une nacelle Thalès JF12, donc 24 roquettes 68mm au total. Une corde de plus à l’arc du Rafale, la chasse au Shahed est OUVERTE ! pic.twitter.com/6v0xSMkUJ1

— bruno aviation (@Bruno_Aviation) April 16, 2026

As a result, NATO has accelerated work on layered defenses that include short-range ground-based air defenses, electronic warfare, and other counter-drone technologies.

Fighters, however, will always remain a critical last-resort option, especially when a drone poses an immediate threat or when a visual identification is required.

Today’s video not only illustrates the changing face of the Baltic Air Policing mission due to the Russian war in Ukraine, but highlights the growing threat posed by drones and cruise missiles that can cross borders with little warning, whether deliberately or not.

Contact the author: thomas@thewarzone.com

A timeline has been provided for the arrival of Saab Gripen fighters in Ukraine, with the first jets to be delivered early next year. Significantly, as well as getting another modern Western combat jet, Ukraine expects to receive highly capable Meteor beyond-visual-range air-to-air missiles, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky has announced.

After meeting Zelensky in the city of Uppsala, Sweden today, Sweden’s Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson announced that his country will donate up to 16 Gripen C/Ds to Ukraine. These will be secondhand jets drawn from Swedish stocks, to expedite delivery. Handover of the jets in Ukraine will take place in early 2027, Kristersson added.

According to Swedish officials, the training of Ukrainian pilots and technicians on the Gripen C/D is already underway and will be expanded this fall.

In the longer term, Kristersson confirmed that Ukraine plans to acquire an initial batch of up to 20 of the more advanced Gripen E/F versions. Writing on X today, Swedish Minister for Defense Pål Jonson said that the Gripen E/F would be financed with a $2.9-billion European Union loan. The long-term ambition remains 100-150 Gripen aircraft, he added.

Despite it having a similar outward appearance to the Gripen C/D, the Gripen E (and the two-seat Gripen F version) is regarded as a completely new aircraft type — as you can read about here.

“Ukraine has clearly identified the Gripen aircraft as a priority option for its air force in the long term and intends to purchase the newest version, the Gripen E,” Kristersson said. “Negotiations are ongoing, and we will be able to transfer these aircraft by 2030.”

In a press release, Saab reiterated that it has not yet signed any contract nor received an order relating to the Gripen E/F for Ukraine, meaning this transfer only exists as a statement of intent for now.

According to Saab, “The next steps for the Ukrainian and Swedish authorities will be to complete the negotiations regarding Ukraine’s acquisition of Gripen E/F, which is expected to take place in batches, and Saab will support this process.”

In the meantime, the Swedish government has also announced that it will replace the donated Gripen C/D aircraft in the Swedish Air Force inventory. “Dialogue regarding Sweden’s replacement of the donated capability will be initiated soon,” Saab said.

Last October, as we reported, Kristersson and Zelensky signed a letter of intent (LOI) including a potential export deal covering “likely between 100 and 150 fighter jets,” according to Kristersson. The LOI was signed at Linköping, the site of Saab’s manufacturing facility for the Gripen.

As for second-hand Gripens, Ukraine has repeatedly been linked with a possible transfer of secondhand Swedish Air Force Gripen C/Ds, and Zelensky previously said he would like to see the first of these delivered from 2026.

While the Gripen C/Ds are now set to arrive later than hoped, it remains a big deal for the Ukrainian Air Force. Although the service has already received Western-supplied F-16s and a smaller number of Mirage 2000s, the Ukrainian Air Force still relies heavily on its Soviet-era fighters. The MiG-29, in particular, has been continually adapted to carry new weaponry, both Western-supplied and locally developed, but these are aging jets and the fleet has been steadily reduced by attrition.

Perhaps the most important part of the Gripen transfer will involve the armament for the fighter.

Zelensky specifically mentioned that he expects the Gripen C/Ds to be armed with the Meteor missile.

Swedish Minister for Defense Pål Jonson said that the Gripen C/D “can be delivered with weapons such as IRIS-T, AMRAAM, and the long-range Meteor missile. This is about aircraft, weapons, skills and sustainment.”

Earlier this year, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense confirmed that the Meteor was one of the weapons being lined up for the next Swedish security aid package for Ukraine.

As we have discussed in the past, the Meteor would provide Ukraine with a class of air-to-air weapon that it badly needs to redress the balance against Russian fighter jets.

Undoubtedly, the Meteor is among the most capable air-to-air missiles in operational service anywhere in the world. Thanks to its ramjet propulsion, which can be throttled during different phases of flight, the Meteor is generally considered to be effective against certain types of targets out to around 130 miles.

Meteor

The Meteor also features an active radar seeker for the terminal phase and a two-way datalink that feeds it with in-flight updates as it flies out to its target and provides information to the pilot in the launch aircraft.

While the AIM-120 Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missile (AMRAAM) that arms Ukraine’s F-16 fighters also has an active radar seeker, it lacks the range of the Meteor.

The most capable AMRAAM identified as being used by Ukraine is the AIM-120C-8, which is generally assumed to be able to hit targets at a distance of between 75 and 100 miles.

Of course, in practical applications, the range of both the Meteor and AMRAAM is affected by a whole range of factors, above all, the energy and altitude state of the launching aircraft and the target.

However, the Meteor could bring a significant shift to the airpower balance over Ukraine.

Russia has repeatedly exploited the long range of its R-37M air-to-air missile, known to NATO as AA-13 Axehead, typically launching them from jets flying outside the range of the missiles carried by Ukrainian fighters, as well as from most ground-based air defense systems.

With a reported range of 124 miles against certain types of targets, the R-37M flies to its target on a lofted trajectory, controlled by an inertial navigation system with mid-course radio correction, and uses an active radar seeker for its terminal phase attack.

Mainly used by Su-35S Flanker multirole fighters and MiG-31BM Foxhound interceptors, the R-37M is a missile we have examined in detail in the past. It has long been a thorn in the side of Ukrainian Air Force fighter pilots.

As TWZ had previously pointed out, Meteor is the best candidate for Ukraine to try and redress the balance in the air war when faced by the far-reaching R-37M and would finally put Russian aircraft at risk within their own missile ranges.

At the same time, the Meteor would give Ukraine a weapon that can target Russian jets delivering standoff munitions, again from outside the range of Ukrainian air defenses. Zelensky today said the missile “would stop Russian glide bomb attacks,” something that has been a huge problem for Ukrainian air defenses since this class of weapons was introduced.

As we’ve highlighted in detail as far back as April of 2022, aside from its Meteor capability, the Gripen, even in its earlier C/D versions, would be the best fit for Ukraine.

Designed during the Cold War to meet the Soviet threat, the Gripen was engineered for efficiency, durability, and ease of operation under wartime conditions. It was specifically designed to be serviced and rearmed by small teams — often including conscript personnel — while operating from dispersed locations such as roads and improvised airstrips instead of traditional air bases. The aircraft’s entire concept centers on maintaining combat operations in demanding environments, including prolonged cold-weather conditions.

“Gripen was built for a country that may have to fight outnumbered, under pressure and from dispersed bases,” Swedish Minister for Defense Pål Jonson said. “That makes it highly relevant for Ukraine: high readiness, rapid turnaround, modern weapons and the ability to operate under constant threat,” he added.

Overall, the Gripen is particularly compatible with the decentralized and highly mobile style of warfare Ukraine is currently practicing.

At the same time, it should be noted that even with the F-16, the Ukrainian Air Force has developed tactics and equipment to operate these jets from dispersed locations around the country. Even before the current conflict, Ukrainian fighters were training to make use of highways as alternatives to traditional runways.

A video shows vehicles intended to help with distributed operations of Ukrainian F-16s:

Project 61: an ecosystem for F-16s by Come Back Alive Foundation

The capabilities of the Gripen and Meteor would also be enhanced by working in combination with the two Saab 340 airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) aircraft equipped with Erieye radar that have been donated by Sweden.

Ukraine’s Saab 340 AEW&C can function as an airborne fighter control platform by detecting and tracking Russian targets, prioritizing threats, and directing fighters to intercept them. Through its datalink system, the aircraft can also transmit mid-course guidance updates directly to missiles in flight. As a result, fighter pilots may not even need to activate their own radar when engaging a target. Instead, the missile can be assigned a target before launch, fired, and then continuously guided by updates from the AEW&C aircraft throughout its flight.

The first evidence of the Saab 340 AEW&C being used over Ukraine emerged in March this year, but its activities have remained closely under wraps.

Taken together, the arrival of the Gripen and Meteor missile would represent one of the most significant upgrades yet for the Ukrainian Air Force. Beyond simply adding another Western fighter type, the package would introduce a highly survivable, dispersed-operating combat jet paired with one of the world’s most capable long-range air-to-air missiles and supported by Swedish AEW&C assets.

Even without the Meteor, the Gripen C/D could help Ukraine challenge Russia’s long-standing advantage in beyond-visual-range air combat while fitting naturally into the more decentralized operating model the Ukrainian Air Force has already been forced to adopt throughout the war. At the same time, it will provide valuable experience for crews and serve as a stepping stone for the future Gripen E/F.

Contact the author: thomas@thewarzone.com

Al-Qaeda-linked fighters have set fire to food trucks as they continue to blockade roads around the capital Bamako, cutting off supply routes. Officials and residents warn the blockade is worsening hunger in parts of the country already facing food shortages.

Fighters attack ‘Africa’s Alcatraz’, which detains high-value prisoners, and disrupt crucial supply chains to the capital.

In a new wave of attacks in Mali, an al-Qaeda-linked group has stormed a main prison housing fighters from the armed group and set fire to trucks with food supplies heading to the capital Bamako.

Fighters from the Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) group stormed the Kenieroba Central Prison, a recently built complex dubbed “Africa’s Alcatraz”, located about 60km (37 miles) southwest of Bamako, Al Jazeera’s Nicolas Haque reported on Wednesday.

The detention centre houses 2,500 prisoners, including at least 72 inmates considered “high value” by the Malian state, Haque said, adding that Malian armed forces were repelling the attack.

Among the prisoners are JNIM fighters and a number of people arrested following large-scale attacks last month by the group’s fighters and Tuareg separatists, the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA).

The fighters attacked several military bases across multiple cities, including areas where senior government officials live, and took control of the northern city of Kidal in a coordinated offensive on April 25 and April 26, which struck at the heart of the West African country’s military government.

One of those attacks killed Malian Defence Minister Sadio Camara and his family in their home in Kati, a garrison town near the capital. On Monday, the leader of the country’s military government, Assimi Goita, took on the role of defence minister. At least 23 others were also killed in the attacks.

Since then, “there has been a wave of arrests of former and current military officers, members of civil society, lawyers, members of the political opposition – all accused of colluding with al-Qaeda fighters,” said Haque, who has been reporting for years on and in Mali. He added that fighters linked to the armed group were also arrested.

Security sources told AFP news agency that opposition figures Mountaga Tall, Youssouf Daba Diawara, and Moussa Djire are among those “abducted”.

According to family members and security sources who spoke to the agency, Tall, a lawyer, was taken on May 2 in Bamako by hooded men on charges of plotting with opposition figures in the Senegalese capital, Dakar, to overthrow the military government. Since his arrest, Tall has been questioned at least once for “attempted destabilisation”.

The security sources said Diawara and Djire were suspected of links with, respectively, the influential imam Mahmoud Dicko and Oumar Mariko, two opposition figures in exile. At least two other civilians who are close to Mariko were also arrested following the attacks, a judicial source told AFP, without giving further details.

The military prosecutor’s office said on May 1 that it had “solid evidence” of the “complicity” of certain military personnel, accusing them of helping with the “planning, coordination and execution” of the attacks.

In a report published on Tuesday, the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) said there have also been “gravely concerning reports of extrajudicial killings and abductions, allegedly carried out by members of the security forces” following the attacks.

The violence has set off fighting across Mali’s vast desert north, raising the prospect of significant gains by armed groups that have shown an increasing willingness to strike neighbouring countries.

JNIM has called on Malians to rise up against the government and transition to Islamic law. The group has also pledged to besiege Bamako, and on Friday, it had reportedly set up checkpoints around the city of four million.

Haque said the blockade has the potential to cause a humanitarian disaster.

“These are al-Qaeda fighters that have pointed 12.7mm machine guns on their motorbikes, stopping any outgoing or incoming traffic,” the correspondent said. “We have seen on social media these fighters stopping food trucks trying to enter the area. This blockade is not just affecting people living in Bamako; it’s affecting people throughout Mali.”

On May 3, the mayor of Diafarabe village, in the Mopti region, called on the authorities to act before people started dying of hunger, as the village had run out of food.

Northrop Grumman CEO Kathy Warden says she is confident in her company’s ability to deliver next-generation carrier-based fighters to the U.S. Navy if it is picked as the winner of the F/A-XX competition. The U.S. Navy’s top officer said yesterday that the goal was to award the F/A-XX contract by August of this year, but also that one unnamed contractor in the running “really can’t deliver in the timeframe we need it.”

Chief of Naval Operations (CNO) Adm. Daryl Caudle offered his latest comments on F/A-XX yesterday in response to a direct question from TWZ at a roundtable on the sidelines of the Navy League’s Sea-Air-Space 2026 exposition. The Pentagon had tried to put the Navy’s future fighter ambitions on hold last year, arguing that the U.S. industrial base did not have sufficient capacity to support work on two sixth-generation combat jets simultaneously. Boeing won the contract to build what is now called the F-47 for the U.S. Air Force in March 2025. Boeing is the only other company known to be in the running now for F/A-XX. Last year, it was reported that Lockheed Martin had been eliminated from the competition.

Late yesterday, Northrop Grumman also released a new computer-generated F/A-XX promotional video, seen below. You can read our analysis of what is seen therein here.

“We do expect the Department [of the Navy] to make an award selection in the third quarter,” Northrop Grumman’s Warden said during a routine earning call today in response to a direct question about Adm. Caudle’s remarks. “We are confident in our ability to deliver our solution to the Navy.”

She did not explicitly confirm or deny that the CNO had been referring to Northrop Grumman when he mentioned a contractor’s inability to meet the Navy’s schedule needs on F/A-XX.

“We and our suppliers are prepared to bring the workforce and infrastructure that’s needed to execute the program, and our track record on B-21 demonstrates that ability to deliver a complex aircraft on schedule,” Warden added. “Regarding the financials, we’d expect upside to the sales and earnings from our current guidance, if we are entrusted to build the F/A-XX, and it would be a top priority for our company to do so.”

Air Force officials, as well as members of Congress, regularly describe the B-21 Raider bomber as a model acquisition program that has been able to keep on schedule and budget despite at least some hurdles along the way. Earlier this year, Northrop Grumman reached an agreement with the Air Force to accelerate B-21 production.

It’s also worth remembering that Northrop Grumman withdrew in 2023 from the Air Force competition that would lead to the F-47. The company framed the decision at the time as a voluntary one.

“I’ll just say that, when I noted we have other opportunities we are pursuing, I won’t disclose at this point exactly what those are until a little more information comes out,” Warden, who was also CEO at that time, said when announcing the withdrawal, which was widely seen as a reference to F/A-XX. “You could assume that if we feel we’re well-positioned, and the government is appropriately balancing risk and reward, as I said that that would be a program we would pursue.”

Former top Air Force officials subsequently said that Northrop Grumman’s bid had been on the verge of getting cut.

As mentioned, industrial base capacity questions have swirled around F/A-XX. The Pentagon had tried to effectively shelve the Navy’s next-generation fighter program in its proposed budget for the 2026 Fiscal Year. At the time, a senior U.S. defense official explicitly said that the decision was “due to our belief that the industrial base can only handle going fast on one program at this time, and the presidential priority to go all in on F-47, and get that program right.”

Congress later intervened to appropriate some $1.69 billion in funding to keep F/A-XX moving ahead in the 2026 Fiscal Year.

“I will tell you, we, Northrop Grumman, are ready to execute F/A-XX,” Tom Jones, President of Northrop Grumman’s Aeronautics Systems sector, had also told TWZ and other outlets in response to a question about industrial base capacity in relation to the program back in December. “We’re looking to try and make sure that the customer community knows that we believe that we’re ready to go and we can execute it.”

Boeing Defense and Space CEO Steve Parker had also pushed back on the assertion that the U.S. industrial base could not support F-47 and F/A-XX at the same time last year. The company’s pitch for the Navy’s program appears to be a navalized adaptation of the F-47.

“The Air Force has got a lot of demand on the system. The Navy’s got a lot of demand,” Adm. Caudle had also said yesterday. “So there was, you know, a check twice, cut once, kind of mentality here on this decision. And now there, I think we’re all on the same page on the reason why the hard look needed to be done. I’m good with it.”

Questions about the overall future of F/A-XX do remain, despite clear support from top Navy leaders like Caudle and Congress. The Navy looks set to request just over $140 million for the program in Fiscal Year 2027. This is a very meager sum, especially for a program of this magnitude. In contrast, the Air Force is seeking $5 billion in additional funding for F-47. Billions of dollars have already been appropriated for the Air Force’s next-generation fighter effort.

The Pentagon and the individual services are rolling out more details about their annual budget proposals today, which could offer more insights into the plans now for F/A-XX in the coming years. Securing the contract to build the Navy’s next-generation fighter is still likely to be an important win for whichever company the service selects in the end.

UPDATE: 4/22/2026 –

The U.S. Navy has issued a statement regarding Adm. Caudle’s comments earlier this week, which is as follows:

“During a question-and-answer session at the Sea-Air-Space Exposition, Chief of Naval Operations Admiral Daryl Caudle was asked about the Navy’s sixth-generation strike fighter program (F/A-XX). Adm. Caudle emphasized that the Navy’s priority is ensuring through due diligence the selected vendor can deliver the required capability on the timeline needed by the fleet while also considering broader industrial base capacity. Any reference to ‘a specific offeror’ was intended as a general anecdotal comment and was not directed at any vendors currently under consideration.”

Contact the author: joe@twz.com

The Air National Guard is pushing Congress to boost fighter numbers as it seeks to modernize its aging inventory. With the Air Force at large feeling the effects of years of underinvestment in new fighters, and with China presenting a massive pacing challenge, the move is the latest effort to ensure that the service can keep up in terms of numbers and capability.

According to a report from Air & Space Forces Magazine, Air National Guard adjutants general from more than 20 states sent a letter to Congress last week that requests multiyear funding for the acquisition of between 72 and 100 new fighters each year.

These numbers would be a significant hike compared with recent years: not since 1998 has the Air Force bought more than 72 new fighters in a single year.

“The United States Air Force is the oldest, the smallest, and the least ready in its 78-year history,” the letter states. “We must build a fighting force that will win.”

Specifically, the letter urges the minimum annual purchases of the 48 F-35As and 24 F-15EXs, with a preferred goal of 72 F-35As and 36 F-15EXs.

While the letter was signed by Air National Guard leaders, these totals would be expected to furnish units of the Active, Guard, and Reserve components.

By comparison, the Air Force requested funding for 48 F-35As in Fiscal Year 2024, followed by 42 in 2025, 24 in 2026, and 38 in the proposed 2027 budget.

The Fiscal Year 2027 budget request also includes funding for the purchase of 10 F-35Bs and 37 F-35Cs for the Marine Corps and the Navy, which is already a notable uptick in planned acquisitions. At the same time, the F-35 program has faced worrisome delays in work on a new radar, as well as a host of other critical upgrades.

For the F-15EX, budget documents show the service requested 24 aircraft in 2024, 18 in 2025, 21 in 2026, and 24 in 2027.

A sustained annual buy of even 24 F-15EXs would represent an acceleration over current production plans for the Eagle II, after the Fiscal Year 2026 budget request increased the program of record from 98 to 129 aircraft, including funding for 21 jets in a single year. In its latest budget request, the Air Force provides no details about whether there may be any new changes to the planned total fleet size for the F-15EX.

One of those who signed the letter is Brig. Gen. Shannon Smith, head of the Idaho Air National Guard, who told Air & Space Forces Magazine that, “We are burning these jets and the airmen over time to support the joint force to accomplish the president’s goals with Epic Fury in this conflict with Iran.”

On top of the demands of combat operations, Brig. Gen. Smith warned that the Air National Guard fighter fleet is rapidly aging, meaning that “Most of the money will go to keep them flying. In a few years, they’ll be struggling to be flyable, let alone be relevant.”

While plans are in place to replace A-10s and F-15Cs, even older F-35As will need replacement before too long, Smith added. More urgent is the looming requirement to supersede the more numerous F-16s.

In total, the Air National Guard has 24 fighter squadrons, 11 of which have already received new fighters or are planned to. While some Guard F-16 units have transitioned to the F-35, there is no plan in place for the Guard’s remaining 13 Viper squadrons. Taken together, the Guard’s inventory constitutes close to half of all combat-coded F-16s.

In the past, thought has been given to a new light fighter, to balance the more costly and capable F-35 and, now, the F-47, although that would be extremely costly and take years. Another option would be to start buying new F-16 Block 70/72 jets, although the production line is already burdened by multiple export orders.

Even if Congress supports the Air National Guard chiefs’ recommendations and the budget is available, getting new jets on ramps will be far from easy.

As well as boosting capabilities and ‘combat mass,’ new fighters bring other advantages in terms of reduced maintenance demands, easier access to spare parts, longer airframe life, and overall higher availability.

The issue of spare parts is a critical one. Back in 2024, we looked at how, by the Air Force’s own estimates, hundreds of its aircraft are at risk of being left grounded due to a lack of spares, thanks to a $1.5-billion shortfall in its budget request.

However, meeting the aim of 72 to 100 new fighters each year would demand a significant uptake in production capacity, which is already stretched. With that in mind, the Air National Guard projects it could still take 10 to 15 years to re-equip units now flying older fighters.

One option to re-equip Guard and Reserve units would be to cascade fighters down from the Active component, but Air National Guard chiefs warn against this, too, since it only pushes recapitalization with new fighters further down the line.

What is unclear is how the Air Force’s plans for the F-47 sixth-generation fighter might play into this.

In 2023, then-Secretary of the Air Force Frank Kendall said that the service was working around a future force planning construct that included 200 of the sixth-gen combat jets.

At this point, however, there are still questions about how exactly the F-47 will fit into the Air Force’s future force structure and how many of the jets the service might actually procure. The jet was originally planned as a replacement for the F-22, but that appears to have changed, or is at least in limbo. It is by no means clear how long the F-22 will be around after the F-47 is introduced, but if the F-47 is delayed, it could come at the end of the F-22’s service life. If the Air Force intends to operate the two at the same time, at least for the earlier part of the F-47’s career, but delays in fielding it occur, this could also open up another gap in the combat mass.

Another factor is the service’s emerging plans for fielding its future fleets of Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) drones, which are being designed from the ground up to work in close concert with current and future crewed jets. In the past, the Air Force has signaled that it wants to buy over 1,000 CCAs. However, this number is understood to cover multiple CCA increments, with Increment 1 being procured in numbers between 100 and 150 units, at least to start with.

Ultimately, the CCA effort aims to drastically improve the tactical jet fleet combat mass, which could offset the dwindling fighter force, and active-duty F-35 and F-22 units will get them first. Thereafter, they could be quickly rolled out to fourth-generation jets, too. On the other hand, the CCA concept still has much to prove and is not without risk.

In the background to all this are the concerns within the U.S. military leadership at large about the significant advances being made by the Chinese military and, in this case, its air arms. The People’s Liberation Army Air Force is rapidly expanding and modernizing at a scale that threatens to surpass the United States in both numbers and capability. Warning signs of a massive fighter expansion include an apparent new J-35 factory and the many Chinese CCA programs.

As long as the U.S. government continues to procure aircraft at comparatively slower rates, China has the opportunity to race ahead and is already producing advanced fighters in large quantities, creating a growing imbalance in the Indo-Pacific region.

Clearly, there are very many factors at play, not least budgetary. However, in making their case to Congress, Air National Guard bosses are once again underscoring the continued demand for crewed combat jets within the service, and at the same time, highlighting some of the challenges in keeping the fighter force at the top of its game.

Contact the author: thomas@thewarzone.com