Fed

When Jerome Powell speaks, markets listen. As well they should. Powell serves as the chair of the Federal Reserve Board. As part of this role, he also leads the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC), which sets the monetary policy of the U.S.

Powell recently hinted at a monetary policy change that seems positive for the stock market. But should investors actually be worried?

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell answers reporters’ questions at the FOMC press conference on Sept.17, 2025. Official Federal Reserve Photo.

Good news for investors?

Powell spoke last week at the National Association for Business Economics conference held in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. One of his key points in his address was an update on the status of the Fed’s “quantitative tightening” approach.

Quantitative tightening is the term used to describe when the Federal Reserve reduces the size of its balance sheet. To accomplish this goal, the Fed allows assets such as government-issued bonds to mature, or it actively sells those assets. This usually results in higher long-term interest rates, lower inflation, and a cooling down of an overheated economy.

The opposite of quantitative tightening is quantitative easing. With this approach, the Fed increases the size of its balance sheet. Quantitative easing is an expansionary policy that’s usually associated with a rising stock market.

In his recent remarks, Powell hinted that the Fed is close to ending its program of quantitative tightening. He said:

Our long-stated plan is to stop balance sheet runoff when reserves are somewhat above the level we judge consistent with ample reserve conditions. We may approach that point in coming months, and we are closely monitoring a wide range of indicators to inform this decision.

Powell always chooses his words deliberately and can often be somewhat ambiguous. However, the takeaway from his comments is that the Fed’s quantitative tightening policies could be almost over. This would seem to be good news for investors.

A more complicated picture

I chose those words deliberately and left room for ambiguity just as Powell likes to do. Why? Because there’s a more complicated picture if the Fed stops its quantitative tightening policies.

For one thing, the end of quantitative tightening doesn’t necessarily mean a return of robust quantitative easing. Some saw quantitative easing as something akin to steroids for the economy and stock market, while quantitative tightening was like a depressant. Using that analogy, discontinuing taking a depressant doesn’t boost strength in the same way as frequently taking a steroid might.

It’s also important to understand that the end of quantitative tightening could be a warning sign about the economy, and by extension, corporate earnings. The Fed doesn’t reduce the size of its balance sheet when the economy is weak. Powell’s remarks, indicating that quantitative tightening could soon taper off, might reflect significant underlying concerns by the Fed about the health of the U.S. economy, despite his seemingly positive statement last week that the economy “may be on a somewhat firmer trajectory than expected.” As the economy goes, so goes the stock market — usually.

Finally, there is a real risk that ending quantitative tightening could backfire. One of the main goals of the policy is to fight inflation. If the Fed returns to expanding its balance sheet, inflation could roar back. The effects of the Trump administration’s tariffs could add fuel to the fire, at least initially. Powell acknowledged in his speech at the National Association for Business Economics conference, “There is no risk-free path for policy as we navigate the tension between our employment and inflation goals.”

The Fed could find itself in a situation where it has to reverse tactics, which would likely create significant uncertainty for the stock market. If there’s anything investors hate, it’s uncertainty.

Should investors worry?

I think celebrating the Fed bringing its quantitative tightening policies to a halt is premature. However, it’s also too soon to worry about the potential impact on stocks from the decision.

We don’t know yet how quickly the Fed will begin increasing the size of its balance sheet. We don’t know how aggressively it will move if and when quantitative tightening comes to an end. We don’t know what else will be happening with the economy or the stock market.

What we do know, though, is that the stock market rises over the long term. Anyone with an investing time horizon measured in decades shouldn’t have anything to worry about, regardless of what the Fed does or doesn’t do in the near term.

ADVERTISEMENT

European stocks rose on Wednesday morning after a string of strong corporate results a day earlier, while equities were also boosted by remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. In Philadelphia on Tuesday, Powell suggested that another interest rate cut could come later this month in the US.

In Europe, shares in Netherlands-headquartered ASML, which makes equipment used in the production of AI chips, jumped after the company posted promising results on Wednesday.

The shares rose more than 4%, after Europe’s largest company by market value reported third-quarter earnings fuelled by the AI boom. ASML’s stocks have rallied by almost 50% since August.

Meanwhile, on Wednesday, French multinational luxury group LVMH said its organic growth re-entered positive territory in the third quarter. The luxury giant’s shares jumped by more than 14% by 13.00 CEST.

The mood in France also shifted on news that the government had significantly improved its chances of surviving a looming no-confidence vote on Thursday.

On Tuesday, Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu won the much-needed support of the Socialist Party in France’s National Assembly, in exchange for suspending a pension law that raises the retirement age. The CAC 40 in Paris jumped over 2% by 13.00 CEST.

The main European benchmark stock exchanges were also in the green, except for London’s FTSE 100, which lost 0.43%. Meanwhile, the DAX in Frankfurt gained less than 0.1%. Milan’s FTSE MIB was up by 0.36%, Madrid’s Ibex 35 gained 0.71% and the STOXX 600 saw a 0.6% gain.

Gold continued its rally, hitting a high of $4,217 per ounce. Gold has soared over 60% in 2025 as investors seek a safe haven during a period of uncertainty, notably driven by US tariffs and trade tensions.

Global markets are on the rise after the Fed Chair’s words

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signalled on Tuesday that the Fed is slightly more worried about the job market, raising expectations that the central bank will come through with another rate cut.

“Rising downside risks to employment have shifted our assessment of the balance of risks,” he said at a meeting of the National Association of Business Economics in Philadelphia.

Traders took his words to heart, particularly as the US government shutdown has prevented the release of fresh economic data.

“[Investors were] reading Powell like a haiku — every pause, every syllable weighed for hidden meaning,” Stephen Innes of SPI Asset Management said in a commentary.

“The message, once decoded, was clear enough: two rate cuts aren’t just a possibility, they’re the main course,” Innes said.

The central bank cut its benchmark interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point in September amid worries that unemployment could worsen.

“Markets have been lifted by the rekindling of rate cut expectations in the US after comments from Fed chair Jerome Powell, which highlighted sluggish hiring were taken as an indication that not one, but two further cuts were very much on the table for 2025,” said Danni Hewson, AJ Bell head of financial analysis.

“Buoyed by continued deal-making in the frothy AI sector, investors seem prepared to overlook the growing number of warnings about the potential for a market correction at the moment, but this earnings season will be crucial if that optimism is to continue.”

S&P 500 futures rose 0.64% during the early afternoon in Europe, while Dow Jones Industrial Average futures gained 0.41%. Nasdaq futures were up by 0.79%.

On Tuesday, US markets closed a mixed trading day, with the S&P 500 giving up 0.16% and the Dow climbing 0.44%. The Nasdaq composite dropped 0.76%.

Markets remain volatile as the US and China exchange threats of new trade sanctions and tariffs.

Technology stocks are hypersensitive to trade issues since big chipmakers and other companies rely on China for raw materials and manufacturing. China’s large consumer base is also important for its sales growth.

In other dealings early Wednesday, US benchmark crude oil was circling around $58.65 per barrel (€50.43) and Brent crude, the international standard, was traded around $62.24 (€53.52) per barrel.

The US dollar slipped 0.25% against the Japanese yen, while the euro rose 0.19% against the dollar. The British Pound gained 0.35% against the greenback.