expectation

Early voter turnout is exceeding expectations in California’s Nov. 4 special election over redrawing the state’s congressional districts, a Democratic-led effort to counter Republican attempts to keep Congress under GOP control.

“We’re seeing some pretty extraordinary numbers of early votes that have already been cast, people sending back in their ballots,” Gov. Gavin Newsom said in a livestream with former President Obama on Wednesday.

More than 3.4 million mail ballots have been returned as of Wednesday, with votes from Democrats outpacing ballots from Republicans and Californians registered as not having a party preference, according to a ballot tracker run by Democratic strategist Paul Mitchell. Mitchell is deeply involved in the Democratic effort, and drafted the proposed congressional districts on the Nov. 4 special election ballot.

That’s roughly the same number of ballots returned by this time in the White House contest between then-Vice President Kamala Harris and then-former President Trump in 2024, notable because turnout during presidential elections is higher than in other years.

About a million more ballots had been turned in by this point in the unsuccessful 2021 attempt to recall Newsom, but that was during the COVID pandemic.

This year’s turnout is also especially significant because Proposition 50 is about the esoteric topic of redistricting. Redrawing congressional districts is usually a once-a-decade process that takes place after the U.S. census to account for population shifts.

California’s 52 congressional districts currently are crafted by a voter-approved independent commission, but Newsom and other California Democrats decided to ask voters to allow a rare mid-decade partisan gerrymandering to blunt Trump’s efforts in GOP-led states to boost his party’s numbers in the House.

Obama, who has endorsed Proposition 50 and stars in a television ad supporting the effort, on Wednesday said the ballot measure will affect the entire country.

“There’s a broader principle at stake that has to do with whether or not our democracy can be manipulated by those who are already in power to entrench themselves further,” Obama said. “Or, whether we’re going to have a system that allows the people to decide who’s going to represent them.”

About 51% of the ballots that have been returned to date are from registered Democrats, while 28% are from registered Republicans and 21% are from voters who do not express a party preference.

It’s unknown how these voters cast their ballots, but the Democratic advantage appears to give an edge to supporters of Proposition 50, which needs to be passed by a simple majority to be enacted. About 19.6 million ballots — roughly 85% of those mailed to California voters — are outstanding, though not all are expected to be returned.

The current trend of returned ballots at this point shows Democrats having a small edge over Republicans compared with their share of the California electorate. According to the latest state voter registration report, Democrats account for 45% of California’s registered voters, while Republicans total 25% and “no party preference” voters make up 23%. Californians belonging to other parties make up the remainder.

Mitchell added that another interesting data point is that the mail ballots continue to flow in.

“Usually you see a lull after the first wave — if you don’t mail in your ballot in the first week, it’s going to be sitting on the counter for a while,” Mitchell said. But ballots continue to arrive, possibly encouraged by the “No Kings” protests on Saturday, he said.

A spokesperson for the pro-Proposition 50 campaign said they are taking nothing for granted.

“With millions of ballots still to be cast, we will keep pushing to make sure every Californian understands what’s at stake and turns out to vote yes on Nov. 4th to stop Trump’s power grab,” said spokesperson Hannah Milgrom.

Some Republican leaders have expressed concerns that the GOP early vote may be suppressed by Trump’s past criticism about mail balloting, inaccuracies in the voter guide sent to the state’s 23 million voters and conspiracy theories about the ballot envelope design.

“While ballot initiatives are nonpartisan, many Republicans tend to hold on to their ballots until in-person voting begins,” said Ellie Hockenbury, an advisor to the “No on Prop 50 — Stop Sacramento’s Power Grab” campaign committee. “As this next phase starts — and with nearly two weeks until Election Day — we expect already high turnout to continue rising to defeat Proposition 50 and stop Gavin Newsom’s partisan power grab.”

Amy Thoma, a spokesperson for the other major group opposing the proposition, said the data show that the voters who have returned ballots so far are not representative of the California electorate.

“Special elections tend to be more partisan, older and whiter than general elections, which is one of the reasons we’ve been concerned about the speed with which the politicians pushed this through,” she said.

Every morning, Darnell Miller walks his 10-year-old brother, Fredrick, to elementary school, then walks another 20 minutes to Santee High in downtown Los Angeles. Before football practice, when the bell rings in the afternoon, he sometimes jogs to pick up his brother, then walks him home or takes him to practice.

This is a peek into the life of the 17-year-old Miller, a soft-spoken senior who leads the City Section in rushing at midseason with 1,159 yards and 13 touchdowns for 4-1 Santee.

As an example of his talent, the 6-foot, 170-pound Miller made such a positive impression in a 43-7 loss to University that the opposing coach, Bryan Robinson, said, “He’s the No. 1 running back in the City Section.”

Miller rushed for 209 yards in the defeat. He also plays basketball, runs track and has a 4.6 second 40-yard time.

He used to play youth football at age 6 and was so scared of being tackled that he kept running away from defenders when he had the ball.

He moved from Memphis to Los Angeles at the end of 2018. He didn’t play football his freshman year at Santee. He played point guard on varsity basketball. The football coaches noticed him.

“The coaches made me come out,” Miller said. “They kept asking me and I said I’d give it a try. Now I love it.”

He was a receiver last season until switching to running back at midseason after an injury to a teammate. He also plays defensive back.

“He’s a natural at running back,” coach John Petty said.

Santee High running back Darnell Miller, right, takes his 10-year-old brother, Fredrick, to elementary school each morning.

(Eric Sondheimer / Los Angeles Times)

Raised by a single mother, Miller relishes his role watching over his fifth-grade brother who sometimes joins him on the football bus to road games. The two are so quiet and shy that it might take a third person to get them to speak up. Playing football has helped Miller become more vocal but his performances are speaking for him.

Miller has a warning. “I feel I can still get better,” he said.

Let’s review some midseason excellence with some player-of-the year candidates:

• Quarterback Luke Fahey, Mission Viejo. Having guided the Diablos to wins over Santa Margarita, Folsom and San Diego Lincoln, Fahey has shown accuracy and great judgment. He has completed 74% of his passes with 12 touchdowns and one interception.
• Taylor Lee, Oxnard Pacifica. The junior quarterback has gone on a touchdown throwing barrage with 19 in his last three games for unbeaten Pacifica. Tougher competition begins in the Marmonte League.
• Madden Williams, St. John Bosco. The senior receiver is living up to expectations in playing his best in big games. He has 13 receptions for 331 yards and four touchdowns entering Trinity League play.
• Jaden Walk-Green, Corona Centennial: A junior safety who started the season unknown, he has made an impact with his athleticism. He starts in center field for the baseball and is versatile on the football field, batting down balls, making tackles and serving as the Huskies’ kicker.
• Mark Bowman, Mater Dei: He’s a senior tight end showing everyone why he might be the best in the country. The Monarchs haven’t throw many passes to him because they have so many top receivers, but he had two touchdown catches last week against Bishop Gorman and contributes on almost every play with his blocking.
• Isaiah Arriaza, Damien. The Spartans are 5-0 behind their senior quarterback. Arriaza has passed for 1,491 yards and 14 touchdowns.
• Rocco Tompkins, JSerra. The linebacker and running back is only 5-10, but what a first five games he’s had. He leads the Southern Section in tackling. “He’s a tackling machine,” coach Victor Santa Cruz said.
• Madden Riordan, Sierra Canyon. On perhaps the best defense in the Southland, you don’t mess with Riordan, a defensive back who has two interceptions and 16 solo tackles. He had 10 interceptions last season.
• Khary Wilder, Gardena Serra: The defensive lineman has contributed six sacks and 17 solo tackles while coming ready to cause havoc every game.
• Max Meier, Loyola: The defensive lineman has seven sacks and helped out on 40 tackles while showing Stanford has stolen a rising talent.
• Caden Jones, Crean Lutheran. The junior quarterback and star point guard has completed 76% of his passes for 1,432 yards and 10 touchdowns with zero interceptions for the 5-0 Saints.

Players exceeding expectations: Sophomore quarterback Chase Curren, Crespi; senior quarterback Jack Thomas, Palisades; sophomore quarterback Gino Wang, JSerra; junior receiver Paul Turner, Birmingham.

Surprise teams: 1. Los Alamitos (7-0), 2. Beaumont (4-1), 3. Norco (5-0), 4. Moorpark (5-0), 5. Crespi (5-0), 6. Torrance (5-0).

The metaphor feels almost too obvious, the iron-and-brick facade of a half-finished, $200-million football palace looming over Howard Jones Field. A chorus of construction equipment cuts through the chaos of a preseason football practice, the whole scene a reminder that USC, in Year 4 of the Lincoln Riley era, is building toward something.

Where USC’s football program stands in that building process is a bit more complicated to capture. After winning 11 games in Riley’s first season as USC’s coach, the Trojans’ win total has declined in each of the two seasons since. Riley, through 40 games at USC, now has one fewer win (26) than his predecessor, Clay Helton (27), did at the same point during their tenures.

But in recent months, a groundswell of momentum has been building at USC. During the offseason, the Trojans retained top-tier defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn in spite of serious advances from his alma mater, Penn State. They added a rising star in general manager Chad Bowden, who has been an adrenaline shot to the entire program. They surged to the top of the recruiting rankings for the class of 2026 and finally began setting the pace in the NIL space, where they once lagged far behind other programs of their stature.

The only pressing questions now for USC, it seems, are on the field. Even as enthusiasm builds for 2026 , when the football facility will open and the top recruiting class lands, the upcoming season is a critical one for Riley. A third consecutive disappointing campaign would force USC to face some uncomfortable truths, some of which the school can’t afford to confront.

“I just feel great about the progress that’s been made,” USC athletic director Jennifer Cohen told The Times. “And now we’re now in a position where our expectations are high. We all know what they are and that’s to win.”

The Times spoke to Cohen ahead of the Trojans’ season opener against Missouri State to discuss that progress and the expectations that come with it, for Riley and the program.

The following conversation has been edited for length and clarity.

Where would you say the football program stands right now?

“We’ve seen a tremendous amount of momentum, in particular this offseason, with a combination of moves and investments on the retention side of the coaches that we already had that were doing a great job within our program and culture. Just the quality of coaches overall is at an all-time high in my opinion. So that’s one big piece that’s helped with the momentum.

“The second is the front office development and just the hiring of [general manager] Chad [Bowden]. Chad being able to restructure his team and also restructure how all of our coaches work, how he supports Lincoln, how he supports the assistant coaches — he’s more than just somebody that’s developing a roster. He’s really a culture guy, and he’s been a great partner for Lincoln and the staff in football, but he’s really been a great partner for all of us, and he’s done a lot of bridging of relationships, both internally and externally. And top of all that, obviously, we’ve seen the specific momentum of their skill set from a recruiting standpoint coming to fruition in this ‘26 class.

“So that’s huge progress and has really moved us in a direction that we really needed to go in. The facility investment has obviously been exciting. Watching Bloom grow that quickly and the fact these guys know now that it’s real and they’re gonna be in it this time next year, I think that’ll help us from a retention standpoint. We’ve made so much progress this past year in NIL and how we invest in our student athletes in football, and then obviously being in this new era now where we’re entered into NIL agreements directly with students, I just feel great about the progress that’s been made, and now we’re in a position where our expectations are high. We all know what they are, and that’s to win.”

USC football general manager Chad Bowden, left, speaks with coach Lincoln Riley during a team practice.

(USC Athletics)

We’re entering Year 4 with Lincoln Riley. In each of those seasons since he’s been here, his win-loss record has declined. What is your confidence level with him as coach as we start the season?

“We’re both aligned on the expectations that we have, and that’s to win. And Lincoln knows that. I know that. You know that. Our fans — everybody knows it. I would just say we’re really embracing those expectations together. I feel really good about the support and the infrastructure and the resources that he’s been provided. I know he’s energized by it. He’s motivated by it, and there’s nobody that wants to succeed more than Lincoln. I’m really excited for us to get behind him and the guys and the staff and see those results.”

What sort of tangible results do you need to see from Lincoln and the program to maintain that confidence?

“The whole idea here, right, is that we’re going to win. Our goal and our standard here is that we win championships. That’s what we’re working towards, and that’s what we’ve invested in, and that’s what my expectation is, his expectation is, our collective expectation is as a Trojan family. We haven’t even played a game yet. My focus right now is on supporting him, supporting our coaches, supporting our student athletes and really just moving this program forward — moving this whole athletic department forward. This is a completely different era that we’re in, and we’re laser focused. And I’m laser-focused on pulling every lever that I can and we can for this program to succeed and for all of our programs to succeed.”