European markets

Markets face a sobering Monday after weekend optimism over a peace talks breakthrough faded. Investors are bracing for a high-impact week shaped by geopolitics, inflation data and the start of earnings season.

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Oil prices resumed their climb, with international benchmark Brent crude and the US benchmark WTI trading above $100 a barrel. On Monday morning in Europe, Brent front-month futures were up 7%, trading at nearly $102 a barrel, while WTI gained nearly 8% and surged to $104.

This comes as the US military prepares to blockade ships entering or leaving the Strait of Hormuz, where much of the shipping has been disrupted by Iran since the start of the war.

US President Donald Trump announced the planned blockade after US-Iran ceasefire talks in Pakistan ended without agreement. The military said the blockade covering all Iranian ports would begin Monday at 10 am CET (5:30 pm local time in Iran).

Oil prices have been climbing as shipping through the Strait has essentially stalled since late February. Brent crude has risen from roughly $70 a barrel before the war to more than $119 at times.

“Markets have seen a clear risk-off move this morning,” a Deutsche Bank Research analysts said in a note, adding that “the mood has shifted negatively once again.

“Oil prices have revived fears of a stagflationary shock, with equities and bonds losing ground globally.

Hungarian election and the forint

The Hungarian forint took the spotlight in currency trading after Péter Magyar and his Tisza Party won a landslide election, ending the 16-year rule of Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party.

The euro was trading at 366.18 forints before European markets opened on Monday, a sharp drop from 377.56 late Sunday. The Hungarian stock index rose 2.85% on Monday morning, bucking the negative sentiment weighing on markets across the bloc.

Investors see Magyar’s Tisza Party pushing Hungary in a more pro-EU direction, with a higher likelihood of restoring rule-of-law alignment and closer cooperation with Brussels.

Elsewhere in currency markets, the euro weakened against the dollar to $1.1692 in European morning trading. The British pound also fell against the dollar, down 0.3% at $1.3416.

Stock markets face a turbulent session

Stock markets in Europe opened in negative territory, with London’s FTSE 100 opening down 0.4%, the DAX in Frankfurt falling 1%, and Paris’s CAC 40 down nearly 0.9%.

Stock markets were also down in Asia on Monday. Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 lost 1.0% in morning trading to 56,357.40. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 shed 0.5% to 8,913.50. South Korea’s Kospi dipped 1.1% to 5,795.15. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slipped nearly 1.5% to 25,513.42, while the Shanghai Composite fell 0.2% to 3,976.57.

Analysts said global trading was expected to remain turbulent for some time.

“The outcome of the talks was not really what people were hoping for, that’s for certain,” Neil Newman, Managing Director and Head of Strategy at Astris Advisory Japan, said in Hong Kong.

“As we stand here at the moment, it doesn’t look very nice. Certainly, the oil prices are a big concern.”

Wall Street ended last week with a second weekly gain in a row. The S&P 500 inched 0.1% lower on Friday after a day of choppy trading.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.6% and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.4%. But those gains came amid optimism over weekend peace talks in Pakistan that was later shattered by subsequent developments.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury climbed to 4.32% last Friday from 4.29% late Thursday.

In currency trading, the US dollar gained to 159.74 Japanese yen from 159.25 yen. The euro cost $1.1687, down from $1.1729.

What markets are watching this week

Markets are entering a busy week, with all eyes still on developments around the Strait of Hormuz and the broader implications of the Iran conflict.

In the US, investors are watching the first major wave of corporate earnings reports, including those of big banks and tech companies, with JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and Bank of America, ASML and TSMC reporting this week.

This is set against a backdrop of key US inflation and producer price data, as well as jobless claims. These figures are critical for gauging whether the Federal Reserve is moving closer to rate cuts.

Meanwhile, the IMF–World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington begin this week.

The latest World Economic Outlook from the IMF, out on Tuesday, will also be of interest, and could offer further insight into how these institutions are assessing the global economy’s resilience amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

In Europe, investors are focused on PMI and industrial activity data, which will provide insight into whether the eurozone economy is stabilising or still struggling with weak demand.

Published on
06/04/2026 – 15:51 GMT+2

With European markets reopening after the Easter holidays, investors are set to navigate a mix of geopolitical risks and crucial economic data that may shape sentiment over the coming week.

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Attention will focus on Iran’s response to US President Donald Trump’s deadline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil supplies. Any escalation or de-escalation could quickly affect energy markets, driving oil prices and inflation expectations.

J.P. Morgan noted on Thursday that oil prices could reach as high as $150 a barrel if supply disruptions persist until mid-May.

Beyond geopolitics, inflation data, central bank signals and corporate updates will also draw attention as markets gauge the outlook for the second quarter.

Economic data in focus

The macroeconomic calendar kicks off on Tuesday with the release of eurozone PMI data, a key leading indicator of economic activity. Recent readings have pointed to slowing growth in the bloc, with the composite PMI signalling only marginal expansion amid softening demand and heightened uncertainty.

On Wednesday, investors will examine the latest eurozone retail sales and industrial producer price figures from Eurostat. These will shed light on consumer demand and upstream inflation pressures.

The European data schedule remains relatively light but still significant. Euro area financial accounts will provide additional detail on lending trends, while UK markets stay attuned to labour market and growth signals following recent signs of stagnation.

Focus then shifts to the US, with the release of the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting minutes on Wednesday. These will be scrutinised for hints on policymakers’ views regarding the timing of any potential rate cuts.

Thursday brings key US labour data, including weekly jobless claims, offering further insight into employment conditions.

The week ends with the US consumer price index for March, including the closely watched core CPI reading. A stronger-than-expected figure could dampen hopes for policy easing and spark volatility in global markets, including Europe.

On the corporate side in Europe, activity is limited, although Raiffeisen Bank International’s annual general meeting on Thursday will be watched for any signals on banking sector health and regional credit conditions.

Published on 06/04/2026 – 9:46 GMT+2•Updated
9:56

OPEC+ members met virtually on Sunday and afterwards announced plans to hike crude quotas by 206,000 barrels per day (bpd) in May as the Strait of Hormuz, which is the world’s most important route for black gold, continues to face disruptions as a result of the US-Iran conflict.

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However, the modest rise agreed by the eight key producing countries — Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman — is not likely to bring down oil prices as it represents less than 2% of the supply disrupted by the Hormuz closure. Moreover, the increase is more symbolic than material as the oil can’t be exported until the Strait of Hormuz opens.

“In their collective commitment to support oil market stability, the eight participating countries decided to implement a production adjustment of 206 thousand barrels per day from the 1.65 million barrels per day additional voluntary adjustments announced in April 2023. This adjustment will be implemented in May 2026,” the group said in a statement.

The members’ statement also noted that the 1.65 million barrels per day may be returned in part or in full subject to evolving market conditions and in a gradual manner.

“The countries will continue to closely monitor and assess market conditions, and in their continuous efforts to support market stability, they reaffirmed the importance of adopting a cautious approach and retaining full flexibility to increase, pause or reverse the phase out of the voluntary production adjustments, including reversing the previously implemented voluntary adjustments of the 2.2 million barrels per day announced in November 2023,” the statement also said.

Efforts to stabilise soaring oil prices

The latest statement from OPEC+ comes as oil prices have surged since the Iran conflict began, with Brent and US crude nearing $120 a barrel, driving up fuel costs and putting pressure on consumers and businesses worldwide.

Meanwhile, J.P. Morgan said in a note on Thursday that oil prices could go as high as $150 a barrel if supply flows remain disrupted until mid-May.

US President Donald Trump has given Iran a deadline of Tuesday to open the Strait of Hormuz and has vowed to hit the country’s power plants and bridges otherwise.

European markets were closed on Monday for the Easter holiday.

Published on 30/03/2026 – 7:07 GMT+2•Updated
8:29

European markets are set to open lower on Monday, with futures pointing to declines across major indices as investor sentiment remains cautious amid rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

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As of early morning trading, Germany’s DAX was down around 0.5%, the FTSE 100 fell roughly 0.3%, and France’s CAC 40 was also in negative territory, according to IG data.

The weaker outlook follows losses in Asia, where shares mostly dipped overnight as concerns persisted around soaring oil prices and the potential for further escalation in the US war with Iran.

The declines follow steep losses on Wall Street on Friday, marking a fifth consecutive losing week — the longest such streak in nearly four years.

“US equity markets remained under sustained pressure, with the S&P 500 falling 2.1% for the week and the Nasdaq 100 sliding 3.2%. The Dow Jones held up comparatively better, declining 0.9%, owing to its lower technology weighting. Both the Nasdaq 100 and the Dow Jones have now officially entered correction territory after recording drawdowns of more than 10% below their respective peaks,” IG market analyst Fabien Yip said in a commentary note.

Asia-Pacific markets lower overnight

Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 fell 4.5% in early trading, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 dropped 1.2%, and South Korea’s Kospi slid 3.2%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng declined 1.7%, while the Shanghai Composite edged 0.7% lower.

Investor worries have been particularly acute due to the risk of disrupted access to the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global oil shipments.

Benchmark Brent crude rose above $116 a barrel in early trading, marking an increase of more than 50% since the Iran conflict began on 28 February. Prices were just over $70 a barrel when the war started. US benchmark crude was also up, at around $101 a barrel, reflecting continued volatility in global energy markets.

The surge comes as US President Donald Trump raised the possibility of American forces seizing Iran’s Kharg Island, the country’s main oil terminal in the Persian Gulf. He made the comment in an interview published early Monday by the Financial Times.

“Maybe we take Kharg Island, maybe we don’t. We have a lot of options,” Trump told the newspaper. “It would also mean we had to be there (on Kharg Island) for a while.”

Asked about Iranian defences there, he said: “I don’t think they have any defence. We could take it very easily.”

The US has already launched airstrikes it said targeted military positions on the island. Iran has threatened to launch its own ground invasion of Gulf Arab countries and new attacks if US troops land on its territory.

Meanwhile, G7 finance ministers, energy ministers and central bank governors are set to hold an emergency meeting today to discuss the conflict and its consequences. It will mark the fourth time since the start of the war in Iran the G7 has convened at a ministerial level.