effect

Development agendas borrow a term common in the study of global governance that is shaped not only by policy, but also by the decision-making structures that determine who speaks, who is heard, and who ultimately adapts. In the contemporary multilateral landscape, the tendency of weaker actors to align their positions with dominant powers for the sake of security or accessibility has evolved beyond its classical definition in realist theory. It now operates as a subtle but consequential social mechanism, systematically reducing the diplomatic boldness of the Global South countries in international forums.

The bandwagon effect is not just a phenomenon of individual behavior, but a reflection of an institutionalized architecture of structural inequality. Under these conditions, the countries of the Global South often hide their authentic preferences. Not because of argumentative incompetence, but rather because of the incentives created by financial dependence, representation asymmetry, and limited diplomatic capacity. The consequence is a direct contradiction to Sustainable Development Goal 16, which mandates the building of strong, accountable, and inclusive institutions at all levels.

The Bandwagon Effect in the Context of Global Governance

From a realist perspective, countries that have identical votes in UNGA resolutions reflect similar preferences within the framework of the protection of sovereign norms. But empirical research shows a more complex reality. Khan’s (2020) study of Bangladesh’s voting patterns at the UNGA for the period 2001–2017 revealed that vote alignment does not always reflect the proximity of substantive preferences, but is often a product of geopolitical contexts and dependency relationships. Realists themselves recognize that this kind of voice alignment tends to collapse in crisis situations when countries are encouraged to self-help that makes it clear that a seemingly consensus-like may never really exist.

More direct evidence comes from a panel of 123 developing countries in a study of U.S. economic sanctions and UNGA voting patterns for the 1990–2014 period. The study, which limited its analysis to non-OECD countries because foreign aid was not considered to affect the voting behavior of rich countries, confirmed that external pressures, both in the form of incentives and sanctions, significantly shaped developing countries’ voting preferences on important issues. It further states that receive budget support and unconditional assistance from the US tend to vote in line with US interests. A correlation that is difficult to explain solely by the similarity of values.

This pattern was also identified structurally through the analysis of the UNGA voting network. Magu and Mateos (2017) found that the empirical distribution of voting similarity scores is right-skewed towards a value of 1, which means that clusters of countries with a high degree of alignment are much more common than can be explained by pure similarity of interest. This is consistent with the hypothesis that structurally weak states tend to move toward dominant power positions, not because of belief, but because of survival calculations.

The Inequality Architecture That Creates Bandwagon Incentives

Understanding why the bandwagon effect is so entrenched among the Global South requires a reading of the existing global governance architecture. At the International Monetary Fund, the United States holds 16.9 percent of the vote and has an effective veto since major decisions require an 85 percent majority. Meanwhile, Africa, which consists of 54 member states and accounts for most of the IMF’s 2026 active loan portfolio, only controls about 6.5 percent of the vote. On the UN Security Council, not a single African country holds a permanent seat, although more than 60 percent of the Council’s agenda is related to conflicts on the continent.

This representational inequality creates the conditions in which joining a majority position or with a certain power bloc becomes an administratively rational strategy, even when it is contrary to the long-term interests of a country.

The factor of dependence on military suppliers is also relevant. A study of the determinants of developing countries’ voting at the UNGA identified that the choice of military suppliers that placed countries in the orbit of Western, Russian, or Chinese influence also influenced voting tendencies. This provides important context for India’s abstaining position in the UNGA resolution condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which is an inseparable decision from the fact that about 70 percent of India’s military equipment comes from Russia. This is not a moral inconsistency but rather a rationality imposed by the architecture of dependence.

Contradictions with SDGs 16: Measuring What Is Not Measurable

Sustainable Development Goal 16 mandates the development of institutions that are ‘peaceful, equitable, and inclusive at all levels’ is a mandate that explicitly encompasses global, not just domestic, governance. The SDG 16 Global Progress Report (UNDP/UNODC/OHCHR, 2023) describes an alarming situation where progress towards SDG 16 is very slow and in some cases even moving in the wrong direction. Violence is on the rise, inequality is hampering inclusive decision-making, and corruption is undermining the social contract.

On a broader level, the Sustainable Development Report 2024 (SDSN), which covers all 193 UN member states, found that on average only 16 percent of the SDG targets are on track to be achieved by 2030. SDG 16 is specifically mentioned as one of the goals that are furthest from the target. More significantly, among the five SDG targets that showed the most regression since 2015, press freedom, which is an indicator under SDG 16, is also included.

The connection between the bandwagon effect and the setback of SDG 16 is not just correlative. It is mechanistic. When countries are unable to express their authentic preferences in the multilateral negotiation process due to structural pressures, the three key pillars of SDG 16 inclusivity, accountability, and effectiveness are degraded simultaneously. Inclusivity is degraded as voices that are supposed to represent the global majority are eroded into a consensus designed by and for minorities. Accountability is degraded because countries that choose to go against the interests of their people in order to maintain relations with donors or trading partners cannot be held coherently accountable by their constituents. Effectiveness is degraded because resolutions born of pseudo-consensus will never be implemented with sincere commitment.

The Bandwagon Effect as a Social Phenomenon, Not an Individual Failure

It is important to emphasize that the bandwagon effect in this context is not a failure of diplomatic character or moral inconsistency. It is a rational response to unequal structural incentives. A quantitative analysis of UNGA voting in the period 1946–2014 shows that the voting patterns of developing countries consistently shifted to the dominant power configuration in that period not because of the convergence of values, but because of changes in the distribution of power and dependency.

This makes the bandwagon effect a social phenomenon in the strictest sense. It is not behavior that is freely chosen by individuals or states, but behavior that is conditioned by the structure of the system. As the literature on public voting behavior and foreign policy shows, public opinion and domestic pressures do influence foreign policy but in countries with low state capacity, external factors such as aid dependence and pressure from international financial institutions are often more decisive.

The consequences of this framing are very important in policy. The solution is not moral persuasion, but in the transformation of structural incentives. The countries of the Global South do not need to be educated to be braver, they just need to be given conditions where diplomatic courage does not mean financial suicide or geopolitical isolation.

Implications and Directions of Reform

If the bandwagon effect is understood as a product of the architecture of inequality, then meaningful reform must target that architecture. First, reform of representation in the Bretton Woods institutions remains a prerequisite that cannot be postponed. As long as the quota formula remains biased towards advanced economies and as long as the U.S. retains its veto, the structural incentives for the bandwagon will continue to exist. The SDSN Sustainable Development Report 2024 itself identifies strengthening UN-based multilateralism as one of the urgent needs of a recommendation that presupposes a more equitable representation architecture reform.

Second, transparency in the multilateral negotiation process must be expanded. If negotiating positions could be monitored more openly by civil society and the media, the space between publicly stated positions and actual behavior at the negotiating table would become narrower. This is especially relevant for the negotiation process in international financial institutions that have been operating with a high level of secrecy.

Third, strengthening a substantive south-south coalition that should go beyond solidarity rhetoric can also provide a buffer against external pressure. But this requires that the countries of the Global South build real policy coordination mechanisms in multilateral forums, not just in bilateral meetings. Without this kind of mechanism, Global South solidarity will continue to be an aspiration that is defeated by the calculation of bilateral dependency in critical moments.

Conclusion

The bandwagon effect in global governance is a manifestation of institutionalized inequality. It works discreetly, through incentives and dependencies, to produce consensuses that look strong on the outside but fragile on the inside. SDG 16 which mandates inclusive, accountable, and effective institutions cannot be realized as long as the global decision-making mechanisms themselves continue to produce conditions that encourage countries to hide their true preferences.

As UNDP affirms in its latest SDG 16 progress report, peace and prosperity for all people and the planet is only possible with decisive and innovative action on SDG 16. Such actions cannot be limited to the domestic realm alone, they must include a fundamental transformation in the global governance architecture that currently systematically penalizes diplomatic courage and incentivizes compliance.

Effective global governance is not built on consensus imposed by dependencies. It is built on genuine participation and genuine participation requires conditions in which authentic choices are not punished by structures that are supposed to serve all.

My nan had one in her downstairs loo. An LS Lowry print, that is. It showed a street scene: 100-odd people, a few dogs, some mills in the background. I remember liking the work mostly because I could see myself in it, in a way that I couldn’t when faced with paintings of fruit or water lilies. I’ve had a soft spot for the painter ever since, and to mark the 50th anniversary of his passing, I travelled up to Manchester for a Lowry-themed break.

My first stop was the Manchester Art Gallery on Mosley Street, where a number of his works hang alongside those of his mentor, the French impressionist Pierre Adolphe Valette (Lowry took evening classes with Valette while working as a rent collector).

Each of the paintings on show, whether of a street or park or lonely road, hints at a shared experience. They are more than the sum of their parts, more than mere matchsticks. Detractors bemoan Lowry’s lack of technique, but for me that’s rather like dismissing Gavin & Stacey for not containing enough big words.

With the rain falling heavily, I found refuge in Sam’s Chop House, down an alley off Cross Street. The pub-restaurant has been going since 1868, and was a bolthole for Lowry, who sits still at the bar, set in bronze. I leant on the man as I saw off a pint, then made a fool of myself by trying to get a selfie with the pair of us in it. Lowry was too large for the frame.

I crossed the River Irwell and entered Salford, which has a unique identity and is a city in its own right – not just Manchester’s bit on the side, as is routinely reported.

Alongside the Irwell, just a few yards into Salford, stands The Lowry hotel, which was initially owned by Sir Rocco Forte, whose hotelier father was a Lowry enthusiast. In the hotel’s gym, I realised that the music of the Smiths isn’t conducive to a workout. But on the treadmill I caught a Morrissey lyric about it taking “strength to be gentle”, and it made me think of Lowry, a man brave enough to stick to his everyday scenes at a time arty types in London were calling for more elevated fare.

I was collected from the hotel by John Consterdine, a local legend who does tours of the region in an electric black cab, including one focused on Lowry. We started at Lowry’s endpoint, Southern Cemetery, where the painter has lain since perishing of pneumonia in 1976, at the age of 88. His resting place is marked by a modest stone cross and adorned with paintbrushes. It is shared, fittingly, with his overbearing mother.

Next, we drove out to a part of town known as Victoria Park. Once a gated community for middle-class Victorians, it’s where Lowry grew up. The house at 14 Pine Grove offers no hint that he lived here until the age of 22, at which point the family were forced to move to Pendlebury, a deprived district of Salford. The relocation was a fall from grace, one that Lowry’s mother would never recover from.

Lowry did adapt to his new surroundings, however. Indeed, it was here that he discovered his unlikely muse – Manchester’s industrial landscape – and went to work on the down-to-earth scenes that he would become known for. Again, the house (117 Station Road) is unmarked. I’m tempted to consider this regrettable, but it’s probably what Lowry would have wanted. The artist refused a knighthood in 1968, and holds the record for most honours declined, turning down five in his lifetime.

After a brief stop at Peel Park, which Lowry painted several times, John dropped me at Salford Quays, which would have been as busy as a box of frogs back in the day, before the bottom fell out of the cotton market. Salford was affected badly by the slump and the city entered a long, deep depression, soundtracked by Joy Division. The docks were a wasteland, renewal a pipe dream.

Enter Lowry. Or rather, the Lowry: a theatre and gallery complex, conceived by Salford councillors in the late 1980s, who hoped an arts centre would rejuvenate the area. It opened in 2000 and set off a chain reaction. London’s Imperial War Museum erected a northern outpost; then the BBC moved to MediaCityUK and told Gary Lineker he’d be dipping his prawns in gravy henceforth. By the time ITV and Corrie moved in, in 2013, Salford Quays was becoming a tourist, retail, residential and leisure hub.

At the heart of it was the Lowry, whose halls had been decked with the vast collection of Lowry paintings the local council had been snapping up over the years.

I started with a new immersive experience called Lowry 360. I entered a space the size of a squash court, each side and surface alive with Lowry’s artwork – bobbies on the beat, bicycles on the move, matchsticks a go-go – the whole thing elevated by a voiceover from Sophie Willan, star of the sitcom Alma’s Not Normal. By animating Lowry in this way, the paintings grow to their subjects’ true height, becoming entire worlds. This is Lowry in the round, and it works like a dream.

I moved on to the paintings, which felt more alive off the back of the animation. Centre stage is Going to the Match (1953), one of his most famous works featuring signature “matchstick men”, which shows a crowd on their way to a Bolton Wanderers game.

The painting has been on quite the journey. When the Lowry opened, it was offered to the gallery on long-term loan by its then owners, the Professional Footballers’ Association. Twenty years later, the PFA suddenly asked for the painting back, because it wanted to flog it at auction. The Lowry was gutted, knowing its prized possession would be lost for good.

Enter Andrew Law, a state school lad from Stockport and the sitting CEO of a global hedge fund. He wrote the Lowry a blank cheque and told it to acquire the painting. It did so – for £7.8m. Someone buy that man a shandy!

I could bang on about each of the paintings on show at the Lowry, but suffice to say that the whole range is here: mills, streets, churches, parks, a girl in a corset and the deep blue sea. Despite the received wisdom, Lowry is no one-trick pony. When you’ve seen one, you haven’t seen them all.

It was time to go to the match. Manchester United were at home to Bournemouth that evening, so off I went to the “Theatre of Dreams”. I took up a position behind the East Stand, part of a thickening congregation as kick-off approached: kids on shoulders, a lady hawking scarves, coppers policing Matt Busby Way.

Not having a ticket, I withdrew to Hotel Football, within earshot of the ground. After the game I climbed to the top and looked towards the skyline of Salford and Manchester.

It was some view: the skyscrapers of New Jackson, the bright cluster of MediaCity, the dark lifted by countless northern lights. There wasn’t a chimney in sight, but I fancy Lowry would have captured the scene nicely nonetheless. He might have added a figure or two – a pair of window cleaners perhaps, harnessed and up high, braving the weather, buffing the glass, improving perspective, allowing others to see.

The trip was supported by The Lowry hotel, which has doubles from £162, room-only. Visit manchestertaxitours.co.uk to enquire about John Consterdine’s tours. Manchester Art Gallery and the Lowry have free entry