dollar

My Diploma Says Lawyer, But I’m a Money Changer

“What’s the rate today?”

That’s the message Juan gets every day starting around 9 am. Often it doesn’t matter if it’s Sunday, a national holiday, Christmas, or Holy Week. The demand for bolívares is always there, and Juan is always ready to supply it.

It wasn’t always this way. Back in July 2024, Juan worked in an office in Chuao from 8 to 5. The only messages he used to receive were from his bosses, friends, or family.

In fact, if you ask Juan how he got into this business, he’ll tell you he never imagined doing it. Sure, he knew many money changers and understood the basic economics, but he also knew the risks. Juan thought he didn’t have the means to take them on.

But things changed after July 28, 2024. As political tensions rose after the elections, the economic scene began to shift. After a few years of relative stability, devaluation returned to the Venezuelan context with the possibility of new sanctions looming. By late August 2024, the parallel dollar had drifted away from the official BCV dollar (Central Bank of Venezuela rate), creating an exchange rate gap.

To make matters worse, the government ordered businesses to charge prices using the official rate. If a product’s price was listed in dollars, its conversion to bolívares had to follow the BCV rate, not the rates displayed by Binance or Monitor Dólar.

That created a distortion in the economy. In practice, prices were cheaper in bolívares than in dollars, which boosted the use of bolívares: up to more than 80% of daily transactions, according to Ecoanalítica.

Juan knows the foreign exchange crimes law hangs over his head and how much changed after January 3.

That’s how Juan found his new line of work. One morning, he realized he could act as the bridge for friends and family needing to get bolívares. He first partnered with the office administrator, someone who always had bolívares on hand. But as demand grew, he had to rely on a friend already in the business to keep up.

Two years later, Juan runs a small but structured operation. He has bolívar suppliers and plenty of clients. He considers himself a retail money changer. He doesn’t handle large volumes like some of his peers, but it’s enough to live well.

Still, not everything in this world shines. He’s aware of the foreign exchange crimes law that hangs over his head, knows how much changed after January 3, and recognizes that the future may force him to evolve or rebuild.

This is the daily life of a money changer in Venezuela, his reality and expectations after the events of January 3rd.

What rate are you using?

For money changers, life revolves around two questions:

The first refers to the day’s operating rate on the market. Typically, Binance serves as the main reference for negotiations.

Juan explains that this is usually the highest rate available, and that it’s common to find bolívares slightly cheaper. At the end of the day, everyone (individuals and businesses alike) wants to minimize losses.

That’s why you might see a 3–5% difference between the Binance rate and street prices.

The money changer operates within that margin. Juan says most of his bolívares come from companies that need to unload them quickly. His power depends on the amount involved and how urgently the client needs the transaction.

When the sums are small, bolívares are usually cheaper than the Binance rate. But if the amounts are large, some people buy at a premium (above Binance) and then sell below it, closer to the street price.

That’s where the business is.

Juan expects the gap to remain due to inflation and rising economic activity. With more bolívares circulating, pressure on the parallel market will return.

As for the second question—how do you pay?—it may sound simple, but it reveals much about Venezuela’s monetary dynamics.

Basically, the question centers whether you pay in cash dollars or via Zelle. This distinction might not seem relevant elsewhere, but in Venezuela’s economy, it matters a lot.

Juan recalls that cash dominated most transactions back in 2025. Everyone paid in physical dollars, and there was growing interest in “bankarization”—something Juan even started offering as an additional service.

By early 2026, however, most payments are now done through Zelle transfers. Cash usage has dropped, and more people are urgently looking for physical dollars.

Ultimately, this just mirrors broader economic movements. During 2025, under strict sanctions, most of the dollars entering Venezuela came in cash. Now, with oil companies returning and a new exchange framework in place, money enters mainly through transfers.

Juan’s only wish is that the money keeps flowing.

“I’m still selling plenty”

There’s been an elephant in the room since January 3rd.

The exchange rate gap was born from several factors, such as sanctions, uncertainty, and speculation. Now that sanctions are being relaxed and Venezuela is earning more foreign currency from oil exports, many thought the problem was solved.

When the government announced a $500 million cash injection into the economy in January, plenty of people claimed the gap would vanish.

Juan heard it both seriously and jokingly. His answer: “I’m still selling plenty.”

He knows the issue isn’t that simple. While the dollar has stopped devaluing as quickly and the gap has narrowed, he sees that there’s still a long way to go.

Seasonal factors come into play, too. The first quarter brings income tax payments (ISLR), which pull bolívares out of circulation. Meanwhile, new dollars arrive at day-to-day varying rates, a mix that reduces bolívar availability.

For the first time in his career, Juan has faced days when he simply runs out of bolívares.

Yet as long as political uncertainty and lack of transparency persist, none of this will really be solved.

Juan expects the gap to remain due to inflation and rising economic activity. With more bolívares circulating, pressure on the parallel market will return. It won’t be as sharp as in 2025, but it will still matter.

As several economists point out, the only lasting solution is a credible adjustment program that restores market confidence. Until that happens, Juan plans to keep working and maybe expand into areas like financial intermediation.

He’s aware of the risks, including a possible police investigation and legal fallout, but he considers them part of the deal. Profit is worth it, and for him, risk is just the shared language of doing business in Venezuela.

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The Dollar Dilemma | Global Finance Magazine

War, tariff volatility, and shifting capital flows challenge the global currency order—even as markets prove resilient.

When Japan’s largest automaker reported 2025 results last May, it said its earnings were hit by $4.6 billion in foreign-exchange losses due to the US dollar’s decline. This month, Toyota has a new concern: the war in Iran that has spread throughout the Persian Gulf. The company sold 325,000 cars to the region in 2025, but the fighting and the closure of shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormuz could further decrease earnings.

Even more damaging, the company is forecasting a roughly $9.6 billion drag on earnings in 2026 due to President Trump’s on-again, off-again tariffs. “The impact of US tariffs,” Toyota CFO Kenta Kon said, “is a significant rise from our initial forecasts.”

 The global economy entered 2026 already on shaky ground. The Trump administration’s sweeping tariff policies weakened the dollar and heightened trade fears, while a Supreme Court decision on those tariffs added fresh uncertainty, even as inflation was slowly easing. Then, on February 28, US and Israeli forces launched strikes on Iran, oil prices surged, and the dollar bounced higher in a flight to safety.

The Strait of Hormuz, which carries about 20% of global oil and LNG exports, effectively closed after Iranian threats and tanker attacks, sending oil prices from about $70 to more than $110 a barrel within days. Oil-import-dependent economies such as Japan, South Korea and China were especially vulnerable to the war’s aftershocks.

Higher oil prices. Uncertainty about tariffs. The dollar boomerang. Corporate finance executives face a new series of challenges: Higher oil prices, etc. However, despite short-term headwinds for business, global analysts remain relatively optimistic about the long-term economic outlook, even with the war’s sudden shadow over markets.

While energy concerns increased as war clouds gathered over the Persian Gulf, analysts largely believed that the global economy would revert to a pattern similar to the pre-war period: a gradually declining dollar, reduced foreign investment in US assets, and inflation that persistently prevents central banks from lowering interest rates. A key sign of market consensus was that, by mid-March, the forward price of oil for October delivery was $79 per barrel, compared to its temporary $110 spike after the war began. But the uncertainty surrounding the objectives and duration of the attacks on Iran by the US and Israel has kept oil prices bouncing around $100 per barrel.

Aside from the currency issue, several factors have contributed to relatively positive economic forecasts despite the fighting in the Gulf. The Trump administration maintains, despite its forecast having been extended, that the disruption to energy supplies will be relatively short-lived. “You’re seeing a little bit of a fear premium in the marketplace, but the world is not short of oil or natural gas,” said Energy Secretary Chris Wright on CNBC in early March. “Worst case is a few weeks, not months.”

As Dollar Falters, China Moves In

The dollar had a tough year in 2025, dropping about 12% against a basket of other major currencies. Although US administrations usually support a strong dollar, President Donald Trump broke that tradition and said it was “great” that the dollar was falling on global markets, which caused it to tumble even more.

The dollar’s decline triggered a significant shift into gold, which increased in value by 60% in 2025, reaching a record price of $5,110 per ounce. European stocks saw their largest inflows ever in February as investors moved away from the United States.

Marc Chandler, Bannockburn Global Forex
Marc Chandler, Bannockburn Global Forex

Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex, said that for much of 2025, foreign investors had been buying US equities while shorting the dollar as a hedge. “Now that US equities are declining, they have to buy back their short-dollar hedge,” Chandler said. “I’m not convinced that what we’re seeing in the dollar is much more than unwinding positions, rather than people flocking to the US as a safe haven.”

Mark Sobel, former head of international finance at the US Treasury, wrote in a March 2025 op-ed for the Financial Times that the dollar’s dominance was slowly eroding. “Like termites eating away at a house’s woodwork, Trump’s dysfunctional policies are eating away at its support and rendering the US currency acutely vulnerable to future shocks,” Sobel said.

A weaker dollar is not just a market story—it is reshaping currency dynamics globally, with China at the center. The Chinese government intervened on February 27 to stop the renminbi’s appreciation against the dollar, which had increased by 7% since last April. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) announced it would eliminate the 20% reserve requirement on foreign exchange forward contracts and stated it would keep the renminbi’s exchange rate at a “reasonable and balanced level.” The higher value of the renminbi did not hurt Chinese exports—the country recorded a $1.2 trillion trade surplus in 2025.

China’s government has used the weaker dollar to strengthen the renminbi’s role in trade finance and payments, with officials claiming the currency is now the world’s largest trade-finance currency. Chinese companies have been gradually decreasing dollar transactions. The dollar’s share of cross-border transfers has dropped from 80% in 2010 to about 40% in 2025, mainly due to increased renminbi flows. The renminbi’s share of global trade has grown from 2% in 2021 to over 7%, a notable rise but still not enough to threaten the dollar’s dominant position in world trade.

In Japan, as inflation rises, the Bank of Japan is expected to increase interest rates, according to Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group. While the Federal Reserve in the US has kept rates steady through its mid-March meeting. The BOJ’s move to tighten policy after ending its negative interest rate policy is seen as a factor aiding yen appreciation.

Europe has been significantly affected by the rise of the euro, which appreciated nearly 12% against the dollar in 2025. “I have watched the dollar rate with concern for some time,” German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said. “The dollar course is a considerable extra burden for the German export economy.” Dirk Jandura, head of the BGA, Germany’s wholesale and foreign trade association, said the strength of the euro was causing exporters “great concern.” The dollar’s easing, though, has softened some of that impact.

Economy Shows Resilience

Supporting the Trump administration’s more optimistic oil outlook, the International Energy Agency agreed in early March to release 400 million barrels of oil to address the supply disruption—the largest such action in the organization’s history. The move reinforced officials’ view that any price spike would likely be short-lived, lasting weeks rather than months. The 32 member countries still have about 1.4 billion barrels of emergency reserves that can be tapped if the shortage worsens.

“The rise in crude oil prices to date does not represent a shock of the magnitude seen in earlier episodes,” said J.P. Morgan analysts Bruce Kasman and Nora Szentivanyi. “At [about] $100 a barrel, Brent crude is less than 35% above its two-year trailing average. To deliver a shock similar in size to the Russian invasion, crude oil prices would need to move close to $150 and remain at this elevated level for several months.”

Joe DeLaura, an energy analyst at Rabobank in the Netherlands, urged companies to have a plan in place to make quick decisions involving their energy supplies. “Start assessing your supply chains and your access to capital markets,” DeLuca told a webinar in March. “Are you shoring up relationships? Are you able to have critical redundancy in your supply chains, especially for key inputs like energy? One of the ways to take advantage of this is by looking further out on the curve and take advantage of volatility when it swings in your favor.”

Daniel Moseley, Oxford Economics
Daniel Moseley, Oxford Economics

Unlike in 1973, when a Middle East oil embargo caused inflation to soar, the United States now exports both petroleum and liquefied natural gas. Therefore, the war is unlikely to significantly impact the US economy in 2026, as it would require a “very severe scenario” for US economic growth to contract, according to Oxford Economics. “We have a view that the US dollar is going to broadly continue to somewhat weaken,” said Daniel Moseley, associate director for scenarios and macro modeling, at Oxford Economics.

Asia Hit Hard

The Iran War most heavily affects Asia. According to the US Energy Information Administration, 84% of crude oil and 83% of LNG travels to the region. I would also say war in Iran. China, India, Japan, and South Korea are the leading destinations for Persian Gulf crude oil, but Thailand and Vietnam also rely heavily on imported energy.

Companies like Toyota have limited options but to cut costs. One strategy is localizing their supply chains. The company announced in February that it plans to invest $10 billion in the US over the next five years to increase production of its most valuable hybrids. It is also reducing production of lower-value models and stated it will implement three price hikes in 2026 to compensate for the “double whammy” of a weaker dollar and US tariffs.

Rajiv Biswas, CEO of Asia-Pacific Economics in Singapore, states that a major concern in Asia is that a prolonged energy shortage could lead to a surge in inflation, prompting central banks to increase interest rates. China’s government, for instance, ordered refiners to halt diesel exports, seemingly worried that supplies could run low during a lengthy conflict.

Biswas stated that the Persian Gulf is also a major shipping route for urea and sulfur used in fertilizer production. This means “the agricultural sectors of many Asian developing countries could also be hit by lack of essential inputs,” as well as the US, right as the Spring planting season begins. Additionally, Brazil, the world’s leading soybean producer, imports most of its urea from Qatar and Iran. India depends on Saudi phosphate exports.

Europe Needs To Urgently Use AI

No European industry was more affected by the dollar’s rise than automobile manufacturing. At luxury carmaker BMW, for instance, revenues fell 5.9%, with half of the decline attributable to the strength of the euro, which created a $670 million headwind. Additionally, US tariffs reduced earnings and imports from China and limited sales to Europe.

“If you take all these elements together, the headwind is bigger than the tailwind, which we’re working on,” BMW CFO Walter Mertl said. He added that the company had cut costs by $2.6 billion to boost profitability. “We are working on all cost elements,” Mertl said, including capital expenditures, research and development spending, and sales and general expenses.

To hedge against a weakened dollar that makes their exports more expensive, European companies need to do more than cut costs. These companies need to invest urgently in cutting-edge technologies, such as artificial intelligence, to make them more competitive in the global marketplace, says Marcello Messori, a professor at the Schuman Centre of the European University Institute in Milan.

“Europe needs to look at artificial intelligence and how it is compatible with the green transition and try to exploit these specific sectors,” Messori says. “Between the current European specialization in mature technologies and the technological frontier, there are a lot of opportunities that you can exploit between those extremes.”

One company leading this approach is Siemens, once known for low-profit industrial machinery. CEO Roland Busch stated that the company has strong growth prospects because it has focused on adopting new technology. “We are in a good place because we are offering what the world needs,” Busch said. “We are positioned along secular growth drivers: automation, digitalization, electrification, sustainability, and artificial intelligence.”

Messori emphasizes that the European Union must speed up efforts to unify financial markets to create a larger pool of venture capital. He notes that Sweden boasts a thriving startup economy. However, established companies often relocate quickly to the US, where capital markets are more accessible.

While the results of wars rarely match initial predictions, the consensus among analysts is that by year’s end, the Iran war may be seen as an economic distraction rather than a strategic turning point. The forces that defined markets before the conflict—moderating inflation, steady demand, and resilient consumer spending—are expected to keep the global economy on track. The dollar, meanwhile, is likely to remain volatile but broadly weaker over time, as structural pressures and shifting capital flows continue to test its dominance.

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Hiltzik: Doing the math on Trump’s war budget

Governing, the political sages tell us, is all about making choices, particularly when leadership faces finite resources and the choices are between war and peace; this is the “guns or butter” balancing raised by Lyndon Johnson’s pursuit of the Vietnam War and, appropriately, by President Trump’s Iran war.

Thus far, according to budget experts and the Trump administration itself, the war has cost Americans about $25 billion, with the White House reportedly preparing to seek $200 billion more in military funding. That points to the obvious question of what the U.S. could buy if it stopped spending on the Iran adventure.

Here’s the short answer: Medicaid coverage, free school lunches, and housing, child care and community college assistance for tens of millions of Americans. Those estimates come from Bobby Kogan, senior director for federal budget policy at the liberal Center for American Progress.

$11.3 billion would have fully funded the training of 100,000 new nurses to solve our staffing crisis. Instead, it was spent in just six days on an illegal war with no endgame.

— Rep. Diana DeGette (D-Colo.)

Kogan is not alone in doing the math. Similar estimates have been published by the Century Foundation and Mother Jones.

Democrats in Congress have offered their own juxtapositions: “$11.3 billion would have fully funded the training of 100,000 new nurses to solve our staffing crisis,” Rep. Diana DeGette (D-Colo.) observed on social media. “Instead, it was spent in just six days on an illegal war with no endgame.” (She wrote when that was the government’s estimate on spending in only the first week of the Iran war.)

Get the latest from Michael Hiltzik

Commentary on economics and more from a Pulitzer Prize winner.

Details will follow. But first, a reminder that the “peace dividend” — that is, the surge of available resources for socially beneficial spending after the cessation of hostilities — has always been an elusive concept.

In part that’s because it invariably gets tied up in conflicts over precisely what peacetime programs political leaders wish to fund, and that often involves tougher decisions than whether to mount a bombing campaign against a perceived adversary.

“What happened to the peace dividend?” economist Augusto Lopez-Claros asked last year, referring to the supposed surfeit of funds that was to flow after the end of the Cold War. His answer was that there were always alternatives, many of them militaristic in nature, in the wings to suck up the funds that had been spent in the past.

The issue has especially acute significance today, not merely because of the Iran war. The Trump administration and Republicans in Congress have been campaigning to cut federal spending, almost entirely on social programs such as Medicaid and on Social Security and Medicare benefits, ostensibly because they contribute heavily to our “unaffordable” federal budget deficits.

Never mind that the largest single contributor to the deficit is the massive tax cut enacted by Republicans in 2017, during the first Trump term, which were made permanent by the GOP’s budget bill last year.

Placing military spending in the context of alternatives is typically shunned by Republicans and conservatives. The Wall Street Journal editorial board derided the exercise as “dorm room politics,” referring specifically to an estimate by Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Fremont) that the $200 billion reportedly sought by the White House “would pay for free college for every American,” and more.

That doesn’t mean the exercise isn’t worthwhile, however. Kogan acknowledges that it wouldn’t be up to the Pentagon to redirect its budget to the social programs that could be funded with its funding request, but his point in making the comparisons is “to get a sense of scale.”

So let’s dive in, starting with Kogan’s work. He matched the cost of several social services against the $25 billion estimated to be spent on the war through the end of this week and the $200-billion new request. He also broke down some of the spending by ordnance. The price of one Tomahawk missile, invoiced about $3.5 million each, could cover Medicaid for a year for 275 people, for example; the U.S. has fired an estimated 300 of them in the Iran war so far, for more than $1 billion.

Kogan calculated that more than 3.1 million people could be covered by Medicaid for $25 billion, and 24.8 million could be covered for $200 billion. He based this estimate on the Congressional Budget Office’s finding that the federal share of Medicaid came last year to $668 billion to cover about 82 million adult and child enrollees, or about $8,048 per person annually.

Then there’s free school lunches, which the government has pegged at up to $4.69 per day for about 30 million children receiving meals in school. If they all received free lunch, that would come to a little over $25 billion, based on a 180-day school year. (Only about two-thirds of those children receive free meals, with the rest receiving cut-price meals or paying full price.)

Child care isn’t typically a governmental responsibility (though it should be); Kogan uses an estimate from the nonprofit organization Child Care Aware that care cost Americans about $13,128 on average in 2024; inflating that to a 2026 figure yields an average of $14,048, meaning that 1.78 million households could be covered for about $25 billion, and about 14.2 million for $200 billion.

Tuition for a two-year path to an associate degree in community college, that portal to higher education for millions of Americans, will cost an average of $8,700 this year by Kogan’s reckoning, based on the College Board’s estimate of $8,300 for 2025. That means that about 2.87 million Americans could have their tuition fully covered for about $25 billion, and nearly 23 million students could be covered for $200 billion.

The progressive Century Foundation contributed estimates of how much in social program spending could be accommodated for $200 billion. Its roster includes the cancellation of all medical debt for the 100 million Americans shouldering about $194 billion in medical debt. The enhanced Affordable Care Act premium subsidies that expired this year could be continued for almost six years for about $200 billion, extrapolating from the 10-year, $350-billion estimate produced by the CBO. “Ensuring health coverage for all Americans,” the foundation noted, “could save an estimated 68,000 lives per year.”

The foundation also notes that $200 billion could ameliorate the draconian cuts in Medicaid imposed by the preposterously named One Big Beautiful Bill that the GOP enacted as a budget measure in July. The work requirement in that bill is estimated to reduce Medicaid spending by $326 billion over 10 years, according to the CBO, mostly by throwing enrollees out of the program. The work rules, which as I’ve reported do nothing to enhance employment, could be deferred for six years, preventing the loss of coverage for about 5.2 million Americans.

Mother Jones reported soberly that $200 billion would cover the wages of 2.8 million public school teachers, based on an average salary of $72,030, as reported by the National Education Assn.

The publication took a rather more fanciful approach for some calculations. It reported that $200 billion would pay for 2,666 sequels to the “Melania” documentary, based on the $75-million reported cost of its production and marketing by Amazon, its sponsor. And 500 more White House ballrooms, based on the latest projection of $400 million for just one.

Obviously all these calculations are somewhat chimerical. No one really believes that if Congress rejects the $200-billion ask, that money would be redeployed for any of these social programs, at least while the GOP remains in control of the government purse strings. The basic arithmetic itself is subject to cavils resulting from the murkiness of some of the cost calculations and projections.

But they’re not far wide off the mark in terms of orders of magnitude. Millions of dollars in social spending could be covered by billions of dollars in military spending, and much more productive investments could be made in the years and decades to come.

The lost “peace dividend” encompasses not just domestic needs, but also “the potentially catastrophic risks that we are taking on in the future because we are misallocating resources now,” Lopez-Claros observed — “spending massively on defense while leaving unattended climate change mitigation, pandemic preparedness, the shamefully high levels of malnourishment in the world, among others. We may well come to regret this and by then, unfortunately, it might be too late.”

Even before the first bombs fell on Iran, after all, the U.S. was shortchanging all those imperatives. “Just last July, Trump signed into law the biggest cuts to the social safety net in all U.S. history,” Kogan says, including “the biggest cuts to Medicaid ever, and the biggest cuts to SNAP, ever.” (The GOP budget bill cut SNAP, the food stamp program, by $186 billion, leaving “nearly 3 million young adults ages 18 to 24 who receive SNAP vulnerable to losing that assistance,” the Urban Institute estimated after the bill was signed.

At their heart, these calculations are not really about dollars and cents. The financial figures just help us keep score of the choices that define us as a nation.

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Democrats excluded from USC governor debate urge rivals to boycott

Four Democrats running for governor called on their fellow candidates to boycott an upcoming debate at USC, reiterating concerns that the criteria used to determine who was invited to participate resulted in every prominent candidate of color being excluded from the forum.

“We ask each and every candidate who is in this race to recognize that if we can’t have a fair process for a debate, then we should all not participate,” said Xavier Becerra, the former U.S. Health and Human Services secretary. “We call on them to withdraw from this biased forum.”

Becerra’s call was echoed by former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, state Supt. of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond and former state Controller Betty Yee during a Friday afternoon news conference.

The candidate’s request comes a week after some of them raised concerns about the criteria for Tuesday’s debate, arguing that it was engineered to allow the inclusion of San José Mayor Matt Mahan, who entered the race in late January and quickly raised millions of dollars from Silicon Valley executives.

“The rules initially were polling and money. Matt Mahan is [polling] lower than some of us, period,” Villaraigosa said, adding that the debate organizers “then added time in the race,” which resulted in Mahan’s invitation.

Mahan’s campaign did not respond to a request for comment on Friday, but when Becerra raised such concerns last week, Mahan said the former Biden administration official ought to be included in the debate.

The matter is further complicated by Mahan supporters who have notable ties to the university.

Mike Murphy, a co-director of the USC center hosting the debate, has been voluntarily advising an independent expenditure committee backing Mahan. The veteran GOP strategist said last week that he had nothing to do with organizing the debate and that he has asked for unpaid leave at the university through the June 2 primary if he takes a paid role in the campaign.

USC has also received tens of millions of dollars in donations from billionaire real estate developer Rick Caruso and his wife. Caruso, a USC alumnus who served as a trustee for years, is also a Mahan supporter.

A representative for Caruso did not respond to a request for comment.

The debate, hosted by the USC Dornsife Center for the Political Future, KABC-TV Los Angeles and Univision, is scheduled to take place on campus at 5 p.m. Tuesday — less than two months before ballots begin arriving in voters’ mailboxes. The forum will be streamed and broadcast on ABC and Univision affiliates across the state.

USC and the television stations put out a joint statement Friday morning, prior to the candidates’ news conference, justifying the criteria used to determine who was invited to participate and saying none of the debate partners had any influence on the methodology.

“We want to be clear that we categorically, unequivocally deny any allegations that the debate criteria was in any way biased in favor or against any candidate and want to clarify the facts,” they said in a statement, adding that Christian Grose, a USC political science professor, was asked to develop “data-driven” benchmarks to determine which candidates were invited.

“The methodology was based on well-established metrics consistent with formulas widely used to set debate participation nationwide — a combination of polling and fundraising — and developed without regard to any particular candidate.”

After the Democratic candidates called for their competitors to not participate, USC and KABC declined to comment further. Univision did not respond to a request for comment.

Grose defended the methodology he crafted as “objective” in an interview Friday, and said he met with Becerra as well as the staff of other candidates to explain it.

“The idea that it was biased or designed to create some sort of outcome to disfavor the candidates who spoke at the press conference is just not correct,” Grose said, adding that attacks on the methodology have a “chilling effect” on universities and media outlets who sponsor debates.

“I’m not worried about the optics,” he said. “The optics are we are having a debate at USC to inform voters and educate students.”

Jarred Cuellar, a political science assistant professor at Cal Poly Pomona, described Grose’s methodology as “thoughtful” and “empirically grounded,” and characterized the concerns raised by candidates not included in the debate as unfounded and not credible.

“The formula is methodologically sound and represents a clear improvement over how debate participation has often been determined,” he said. “Rather than relying on a single metric such as polling, it takes a multidimensional approach to evaluating candidate viability. That approach better reflects how political scientists measure complex phenomena like electoral competitiveness.”

But the controversy has caused consternation among USC professors past and present.

“It seems like an unforced error that is casting the entire event in a bad light,” said a current USC professor who closely follows politics but is not involved in the debate, and who asked for anonymity to speak candidly. “It’s super important that if the debate happens, it happens correctly.”

Darry Sragow, a veteran Democratic strategist who taught election and environmental law at USC for 19 years, said that while he believes the large field of Democratic candidates needs to be winnowed, that’s not the job of a university or media outlets.

“Every one of these eight [Democratic candidates] is capable of running the state of California,” he said. “ It would certainly be my advice to USC and to Univision and to ABC to allow all the candidates to take part, or to cancel the debate.”

The four Democratic candidates not invited to the debate argued that voters are just starting to pay attention to the thus-far sleepy race and that diverse candidates should be represented.

“We are a minority-majority state, and the idea that the four candidates of color are not going to be on the stage to bring those perspectives, to really speak to those communities, is really not doing right by the voters,” Yee said.

Becerra said some of the candidates had requested to speak with top university leadership, including President Beong-Soo Kim. In other conversations, he said university officials raised the possibility of “either canceling this debate or incorporating more of the candidates in it. Evidently they could not agree to do that. … I think they recognize that there were problems with the way this debate had been organized.”

Becerra said he reviewed the formula and has “never seen” debate criteria like it before during his decades of serving in elected office.

“Your fundraising numbers are divided by the number of days you’ve been out there campaigning in front of voters,” he said. “So you could have raised millions of dollars, but if you’ve been in longer than someone else who just raised millions of dollars very quickly, you get penalized.”

Campaigns for the invited candidates — Democrats Rep. Eric Swalwell of Dublin, former Orange County Rep. Katie Porter, climate activist Tom Steyer and Mahan; as well as Republicans Chad Bianco, the sheriff of Riverside County, and former Fox News host Steve Hilton — did not respond to requests for comment on the call to boycott the debate.

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Dollar Steadies, Oil Pulls Back After Trump Signals Iran War May End Soon

Global currency and commodity markets stabilised slightly on Tuesday after a volatile start to the week triggered by the war involving Iran, United States and Israel. The U.S. dollar steadied against major currencies after earlier declines, following remarks from U.S. President Donald Trump that the conflict could end “very soon.”

Financial markets had been thrown into turmoil a day earlier amid fears that a prolonged war could trigger a major global energy shock. The conflict has disrupted oil and gas exports through the critical Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping route for global energy supplies.

Although markets calmed somewhat after Trump’s comments, the broader environment remains highly uncertain as investors continue to assess the potential economic fallout from the conflict.

Dollar Holds Ground as Oil Prices Ease

In Asian trading, the U.S. dollar was largely steady against other major currencies after retreating from the highs reached during Monday’s market turbulence.

The currency traded at around 157.73 yen against the Japanese yen and about $1.1632 against the euro, reflecting a stabilisation following the sharp movements seen earlier.

Meanwhile, oil prices remained elevated but declined from the dramatic peaks reached at the start of the week. Brent crude traded at roughly $93 per barrel, still significantly higher than levels before the outbreak of the war but well below Monday’s surge toward $120.

The pullback in oil prices helped ease immediate concerns about a severe energy shock, although analysts caution that volatility could continue if the conflict escalates again.

Investors Remain Cautious

Despite the relative calm in currency markets, analysts say investors are far from convinced that the crisis is nearing resolution.

Rodrigo Catril, a currency strategist at National Australia Bank, warned that markets could continue to experience sudden shifts in sentiment as geopolitical developments unfold.

According to Catril, it remains unclear whether the Iranian leadership would be willing to pursue de-escalation, suggesting that the risk of renewed market volatility remains high.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in Iran dismissed Trump’s suggestion that the conflict could end quickly, describing the remarks as “nonsense.”

Risk-Sensitive Currencies Under Pressure

Currencies closely linked to global economic sentiment weakened as investors remained cautious.

The Australian dollar slipped to around $0.7063, while the New Zealand dollar fell to roughly $0.5912. These currencies often decline during periods of geopolitical uncertainty or when investors shift toward safer assets.

The dollar, by contrast, has benefited from its traditional role as a safe-haven currency during times of crisis. The escalation of the conflict and disruption to energy markets prompted investors to move funds into U.S. assets, supporting the currency.

The British pound recovered from losses earlier in the week to trade around $1.3434.

Energy Prices and Global Growth Concerns

Investors remain concerned that sustained high energy prices could slow global economic growth. Rising oil costs increase expenses for businesses and households, effectively acting as a tax on economic activity.

At the same time, higher energy prices could complicate monetary policy by pushing inflation upward and making it harder for central banks to lower interest rates.

Analysts at Deutsche Bank noted that a broader market sell-off in risk assets would likely require several conditions to occur simultaneously: persistently high oil prices, a shift in central bank policy expectations and clear evidence of a slowing global economy.

Strategist Henry Allen said markets are now significantly closer to those thresholds than they were just a week ago, though the full conditions for a major downturn have not yet materialised.

Analysis: Markets Brace for Prolonged Volatility

The market reaction to the Iran war underscores how closely global financial conditions are tied to geopolitical developments in the Middle East.

While Trump’s comments about a possible quick end to the conflict helped stabilise markets temporarily, the underlying risks remain substantial. The disruption of energy supplies through the Strait of Hormuz continues to threaten global oil flows and could trigger renewed price spikes if the conflict intensifies.

For investors, the situation presents a delicate balance. On one hand, hopes for de-escalation could stabilise energy prices and reduce pressure on financial markets. On the other, continued fighting or further disruptions to oil shipments could quickly reignite volatility across currencies, commodities and equities.

Until there is clearer evidence of either de-escalation or escalation, markets are likely to remain highly sensitive to political developments, with the dollar continuing to benefit from its role as a global safe haven.

With information from Reuters.

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Poison-pill effort to cancel proposed billionaire tax hits voters’ mailboxes

California voters are being urged to put a poison-pill effort on the November ballot that would nullify a controversial proposed tax on the state’s billionaires.

Neither proposal has yet qualified for the ballot — supporters of each need to gather the verified signatures of hundreds of thousands of voters. But petitions that have been mailed and texted to California voters in recent days demonstrate the stakes in a contest that has drawn tens of millions of dollars in campaign spending.

“Government has wasted billions of our tax dollars on homelessness and many other failed programs with little to show for it,” reads the new mailing to voters. “We can’t afford more wasteful spending!”

The proposal is aimed at countering a proposed one-time 5% tax on billionaires assets that would fund healthcare for the state’s neediest residents, but opponents say it would lead to lost tax revenues as California’s wealthiest flee the state.

Mailers and texts recently sent to voters describe the new proposal as an effort to create a more accountable, transparent and effective state government that would require auditing of new state taxes and ensuring they comply with existing law.

The small-font description of the proposed initiative included in the mailing specifies that any new tax enacted after Jan. 1 must be deposited into the state’s general fund and conform with current state tax policy, which is an oblique reference to a prior voter-approved ballot measure requiring that a significant portion of the state’s tax revenue be spent on education.

If competing proposals appear on a ballot and are successful, the one that receives the most votes nullifies the other. There are other ballot measure proposals aimed at thwarting the billionaires tax.

The mailers and texts were funded by a committee called Californians for a More Transparent and Effective Government, which was funded by another group, called Building a Better California, according to the California secretary of state’s office.

Earlier this year, the latter group received a $20-million donation from Google co-founder Sergey Brin, $2 million from former Google Chief Executive Eric Schmidt and $2 million from Stripe CEO Patrick Collison, among donations from other Silicon Valley leaders, according to fundraising disclosure reports.

Attempts to reach spokespeople connected with the effort were unsuccessful Monday night.

Suzanne Jimenez, chief of staff at SEIU-United Healthcare Workers West, the primary union backing the billionaire tax, decried what she described as an effort by a small number of the state’s wealthiest residents to avoid paying their fair share.

“So far, those few billionaires are failing,” she said in a statement. “Despite the expensive and wasteful tactics by a small group of billionaires that aim to deny voters a choice on the billionaire tax in November, our growing coalition and volunteer base is on track with signature collection and gaining momentum. The public is crystal clear on the fact that keeping ERs and clinics open is more important than billionaires getting more tax breaks.”

California’s budget is notoriously volatile because it is largely dependent on taxes paid by its wealthiest residents. Revenue hinges on capital gains from investments, bonuses to executives and windfalls from new stock offerings, all of which are grossly unpredictable.

The billionaire tax would cost more than 200 of the state’s richest residents about $100 billion if a majority of voters support it on the November ballot.

The proposed tax would retroactively apply to billionaires’ assets as of Jan. 1, and has already prompted some of California’s wealthiest residents to leave the state. It has also created a wedge among Democrats. Some argue that it is necessary to address tax inequities that benefit the rich and harm everyone else. Among the supporters is Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), who kicked off the billionaire tax proposal drive in February.

But others, notably Gov. Gavin Newsom, oppose the effort, saying policies that vary by state would drive innovators and businesses outside of California.

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S. Korean currency slumps to 17-yr low against U.S. dollar amid Iran crisis

This photo, taken Monday, shows the trading room of Hana Bank in central Seoul as the South Korean won fell to a 17-year low against the U.S. dollar. The won was quoted at 1,495.5 won per dollar at the close of trading hours at the Korean Stock Exchange. Photo by Yonhap

The South Korean won fell to a 17-year low against the U.S. dollar Monday amid heightened market volatility as oil prices spiked following the expanding conflict in the Middle East.

The won was quoted at 1,495.5 won per dollar at 3:30 p.m., down 19.1 won from the previous session, marking the weakest level since March 12, 2009, when the won-dollar rate hit 1,496.5 won during the global financial crisis.

After opening at 1,493 won, the won-dollar rate touched 1,499.2 won at 10:22 a.m., the lowest intraday level since that day, when the rate reached 1,500 won.

Investor sentiment was dampened by instability in global energy prices. The U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude surpassed US$100 per barrel for the first time since July 2022 on Sunday (U.S. time).

The recent decline in the won has also been driven by a broad dollar rally amid concerns that the U.S.-Israeli operation could escalate into a prolonged regional war.

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