Weekly insights and analysis on the latest developments in military technology, strategy, and foreign policy.
Welcome to Bunker Talk. This is a weekend open discussion post for the best commenting crew on the net, in which we can chat about all the stuff that went on this week that we didn’t cover. We can also talk about the stuff we did or whatever else grabs your interest. In other words, it’s an off-topic thread.
This week’s second caption reads:
WASSENAAR, NETHERLANDS – MAY 5: The remains of a communication room are visible as the Seyss-Inquart bunker opens its doors to the public on Liberation Day for a special “Freedom Meal” on May 5, 2025 in Wassenaar, Netherlands. The holiday marks the Netherlands’ liberation from Nazi occupation 80 years ago. The bunker is named after Arthur Seyss-Inquart, a prominent Nazi official who served as Reich Commissioner during the German occupation of the Netherlands.He was found guilty of war crimes and crimes against humanity at the Nuremberg Trials and subsequently executed. After the war, the bunker, concealed beneath a structure resembling a traditional Dutch farmhouse, was repurposed by the Dutch armed forces during the Cold War and served as a site for NATO military exercises. (Photo by Pierre Crom/Getty Images)
Also, a reminder:
Prime Directives!
If you want to talk politics, do so respectfully and know that there’s always somebody that isn’t going to agree with you.
If you have political differences, hash it out respectfully, stick to the facts, and no childish name-calling or personal attacks of any kind. If you can’t handle yourself in that manner, then please, discuss virtually anything else.
No drive-by garbage political memes. No conspiracy theory rants. Links to crackpot sites will be axed, too. Trolling and shitposting will not be tolerated. No obsessive behavior about other users. Just don’t interact with folks you don’t like.
Do not be a sucker and feed trolls! That’s as much on you as on them. Use the mute button if you don’t like what you see.
So unless you have something of quality to say, know how to treat people with respect, understand that everyone isn’t going to subscribe to your exact same worldview, and have come to terms with the reality that there is no perfect solution when it comes to moderation of a community like this, it’s probably best to just move on.
Finally, as always, report offenders, please. This doesn’t mean reporting people who don’t share your political views, but we really need your help in this regard.
When we decided to rank the best Los Angeles movies, we thought 101 titles would be plenty: room enough for undeniable classics, personal obsessions, even a guilty pleasure or two. Of course it wasn’t. You let us know, endorsing many of our selections but insisting we’d missed a few.
Sifting through your responses, 14 films had the most passionate advocacy. You’ll find them listed below in alphabetical order. Together they make up a perfectly valid alternate list, one that captures the glamour and romance of L.A. — as well as its lovable plasticity — just as well.
‘American Gigolo’ (1980)
Richard Gere and Lauren Hutton in the movie “American Gigolo.”
(Paramount Pictures)
Reader Cindy Simon from Pacific Palisades shares an anecdote: “I had just moved to L.A. from New Jersey. My friend and I — young mothers — ducked out of our baby-centered life to see ‘American Gigolo.’ The first scene was the incredible Richard Gere smoothly walking outside a Malibu beach house. My friend and I literally gasped!”
There is so much to recommend to this movie — an excellent choice and a regrettable omission on our part. Not only is it responsible for introducing Blondie’s “Call Me” to the world, it does so via an opening credits scene of Pacific Coast Highway cruising that all but defined L.A. hedonism as the ’70s became the ’80s.
‘The Anniversary Party’ (2001)
Jennifer Beals, Alan Cumming and Jennifer Jason Leigh in the movie “The Anniversary Party.”
(Peter Sorel / Fine Line Features)
“A dysfunctional showbiz marriage in the Hollywood Hills, a party with a lost dog, what’s not to love?” asks reader Jim Ehlers of Pasadena. “It’s so iconically L.A. — the sexy mid-century modern house. When do you get Parker Posey, Gwyneth Paltrow and John C. Reilly in the same cast?”
That spectacular glass-walled home in the Hollywood Hills is the Schaarman House, designed by architect Richard Neutra. But fans know the movie for other reasons: Phoebe Cates came out of retirement to act with her “Fast Times at Ridgemont High” co-star Jennifer Jason Leigh. Today’s audiences ogle a young Alan Cumming.
‘City of Gold’ (2015)
Jonathan Gold in the documentary “City of Gold.”
(Sundance Selects)
Junko Garrett of Eagle Rock says this documentary “captures the essence of L.A.: diversity and vibrancy, amazing food and people. I was a big fan of Jonathan Gold’s articles and looked forward them every week.”
So did we. Gold’s omnivorous enthusiasm remains a guiding light for so many Angelenos and his Pulitzer-winning food writing is easy to find. We’re still going to several of the film’s featured restaurants: Jitlada, Chengdu Taste, Guelaguetza.
‘Crash’ (2004)
Thandiwe Newton and Matt Dillon in the movie “Crash.”
(Lorey Sebastian / Lions Gate Films)
More than a few of our readers bemoaned the omission of an Oscar-winning best picture like “Crash.” Says Jim Rodriguez of Torrance, it “captures the quintessential reality that, in L.A., all the levels of social strata, at one time or another, exist side by side on our roads and freeways, separated by a few feet, metal and glass. And yet, still so isolated from each other.”
And Ian Barnard of DTLA calls the movie “a wonderful antidote to Hollywood’s whitewashed and unrealistically glamorous depictions of L.A.” It shows the city “in all its diversity, prejudices, contradictions, inequities and generosities.”
To us, “Crash” will always be the movie that stole “Brokeback Mountain’s” glory. But let’s be generous and note that Carney’s Restaurant on Ventura gets a nice moment.
‘The Day of the Locust’ (1975)
William Atherton, left, and Donald Sutherland in the movie “The Day of the Locust.”
(Paramount Pictures / Getty Images)
The Nathanael West novel is, of course, essential, so where’s the movie? Reader Andrea Hales, a San Diegan who lived in Los Angeles for 15 years, calls the film version “eerie and fascinating, capturing the essence of Los Angeles: the city of hopes and dreams, fires and riots. The setting is 1930s Hollywood but it could be today.”
One thing is certain: As a one-stop shop for classic L.A. locations, you can’t do much better than “The Day of the Locust,” which takes us to the Ennis House, Paramount’s iconic Bronson Gate and Grauman’s Chinese Theatre.
‘Earthquake’ (1974)
A scene from the movie “Earthquake.”
(United Archives / Hulton Archive / Getty Images)
Reader Dina Schweim, writing from Winston-Salem, N.C. (fine, we’ll allow an outsider’s perspective in this case), expressed her disappointment to not find “Earthquake” on our list: “There are few things I love more than a good disaster movie that obliterates L.A. to balance out fanciful and the corrupt — and yes, I was pleased to see that ‘Volcano’ made the list but ‘Earthquake’ really does capture the raw core of what destruction in L.A. can look like.”
The film was mostly shot on the Universal backlot and we wish it had more of an authentic L.A. feel. Still, if you harbor satisfaction at seeing the city get trashed (and who doesn’t on occasion?), we’re not getting in the way of that rumble.
‘(500) Days of Summer’ (2009)
Joseph Gordon-Levitt and Zooey Deschanel in the movie “(500) Days of Summer.”
(Chuck Zlotnick / Fox Searchlight Pictures)
You like this one. Really like it. “It celebrates and beautifies the city in a way few other movies ever have,” says Anthony Cavalluzzi of Yorba Linda, adding, “Its absence completely invalidates the list.” And Michael Backauskas of Beverlywood writes, “I went to see it five times and I never do that.”
Any film about an aspiring architect is going to make the most of its locations. If you mourn the lovers’ bench at Angel’s Knoll Park, know that it became immortal because of this film.
‘Get Shorty (1995)’
John Travolta and Rene Russo in the movie “Get Shorty.”
(MGM)
This comedy’s dialogue was quoted in our comments twice. For reader Sean Dickerson of Beverly Grove, the movie gives us “maybe the greatest line about our city: ‘What is the point of living in L.A. if you’re not in the movie business?’” And for David Hughes of Sierra Madre, the moment comes when John Travolta’s gangster-turned-Hollywood-wannabe is asked what he knows about the movie business: “I don’t think the producer has to know much.”
There is an unforced charm to the way Travolta’s character falls in love with Hollywood — he’s already a movie geek but other elements fall into place for him. Eagle-eyed viewers will recognize both the Aero and Vista theaters.
‘Grand Canyon’ (1991)
Kevin Kline and Danny Glover in the movie “Grand Canyon.”
(20th Century Fox)
Paul Krekorian of Encino calls this one “a brilliant and underrated study of life in Los Angeles. In a deeply personal way it lays bare so many of the societal challenges Los Angeles always struggles with — economic segregation, racial division and injustice, violence, the disparity between Hollywood-created facades and the reality of ordinary life, and the struggle to find meaning and substance.”
Its writer and director, Lawrence Kasdan, was also responsible for “The Big Chill,” a similar portrait of generational flux, and there are quiet moments in “Grand Canyon” that are some of his best. It also starts with a Lakers game.
‘Knight of Cups’ (2015)
Christian Bale in the movie “Knight of Cups.”
(Melinda Sue Gordon / Broad Green Pictures)
Reader Peter Turman of Brentwood sees depth in Terrence Malick’s oblique portrait of a distracted screenwriter (Christian Bale) searching for grace but finding a lot of sex, calling it “a fever-dream meditation on Los Angeles and Hollywood, with its promises, chimeras, illusions, seductions, nightmares and disappointments, told by a great filmmaker who knows of what he speaks.”
Malick shot all over Los Angeles but his moments on the Warner Bros. lot, the enormous numbered studio buildings looming, may be his most beautiful.
‘Lost Highway’ (1997)
Patricia Arquette and Balthazar Getty in the movie “Lost Highway.”
(October Films)
Even with two other David Lynch films placing on our list, that wasn’t enough for Clark Leazier of West Hollywood, who calls the L.A. vistas and landmarks in “Lost Highway” “the most burned in my brain — particularly the Firestone Auto Shop that is now the popular All Season Brewing in Mid City. Also it captures Southern California nighttime driving in a messed up yet accurate way.”
Lynch obsessives know “Lost Highway” to be the one narrative film in which you can see the director’s own house, part of his compound on Senalda Drive in the Hollywood Hills, used as the setting for his main characters’ mansion.
‘Spanglish’ (2004)
Paz Vega, left, Téa Leoni and Adam Sandler in the movie “Spanglish.”
(Bob Marshak / Columbia Pictures )
Says Rochelle Lapides of Ventura County, “It tells one of the essential stories of our Los Angeles-bound Mexican immigrant population and the cultural challenges they face. Also, in my opinion, it’s one of Adam Sandler’s best dramatic roles.”
Agreed, especially on Sandler, whose turn in “Punch-Drunk Love” so impressed director James L. Brooks, he decided to cast him here. The film’s romantic patio scene is filmed at the Beverly Hills restaurant Il Cielo.
‘Star 80’ (1983)
Mariel Hemingway, left, Eric Roberts and Cliff Robertson in the movie “Star 80.”
(Paramount Pictures / Getty Images)
“Talk about dying for the dream,” writes William Mariano of Escondido. “It was filmed in the same spot she died.” He means Playboy model Dorothy Stratten, murdered by her sicko husband Paul Snider in a Rancho Park home that was actually used by the movie’s production while filming their dramatization of the crime.
“Star 80” does crystallize the ominous side of the L.A. myth, as a place where you’ll arrive, find success (and exploitation) and be destroyed in the process. Bob Fosse completists need to see it; it was the “All That Jazz” director’s final movie.
‘Tequila Sunrise’ (1988)
Kurt Russell, Michelle Pfeiffer and Mel Gibson in the movie “Tequila Sunrise.”
(Warner Bros. Pictures)
Jean Clark of Manhattan Beach celebrates this thriller’s cast, cinematography and plot, which she sums up as “classic good guy vs. bad guy and the woman who loves them both, set against the dark underbelly of glamorous L.A. and its golden beaches back in the 1980s.”
And Jean would know — the movie was largely shot around Manhattan Beach. But don’t go looking for Michelle Pfeiffer’s restaurant Vallenari’s. It was entirely constructed on a soundstage.
Weekly insights and analysis on the latest developments in military technology, strategy, and foreign policy.
Welcome to Bunker Talk. This is a weekend open discussion post for the best commenting crew on the net, in which we can chat about all the stuff that went on this week that we didn’t cover. We can also talk about the stuff we did or whatever else grabs your interest. In other words, it’s an off-topic thread.
This week’s second caption reads:
U.S. Air Force Airman 1st Class Lucas Keka, left, munitions operations technician assigned to the 726th Expeditionary Mission Support Squadron, and Staff Sgt. Daryc Fliginger, 726th EMSS Munitions Flight production supervisor, secure a munitions storage bunker at Chabelley Airfield, Djibouti, Aug. 25, 2023. The 726th EMSS provides security forces, satellite communications, munitions support, vehicle management, contracting, finance and logistics in support of USAF personnel in East Africa. (U.S. Air Force photo by Tech. Sgt. Dhruv Gopinath)
Also, a reminder:
Prime Directives!
If you want to talk politics, do so respectfully and know that there’s always somebody that isn’t going to agree with you.
If you have political differences, hash it out respectfully, stick to the facts, and no childish name-calling or personal attacks of any kind. If you can’t handle yourself in that manner, then please, discuss virtually anything else.
No drive-by garbage political memes. No conspiracy theory rants. Links to crackpot sites will be axed, too. Trolling and shitposting will not be tolerated. No obsessive behavior about other users. Just don’t interact with folks you don’t like.
Do not be a sucker and feed trolls! That’s as much on you as on them. Use the mute button if you don’t like what you see.
So unless you have something of quality to say, know how to treat people with respect, understand that everyone isn’t going to subscribe to your exact same worldview, and have come to terms with the reality that there is no perfect solution when it comes to moderation of a community like this, it’s probably best to just move on.
Finally, as always, report offenders, please. This doesn’t mean reporting people who don’t share your political views, but we really need your help in this regard.
GORDON Ramsay has opened up about his childhood – revealing he was so poor he ate toothpaste and didn’t have food for days.
On Wednesday his new six-part Netflix documentary Being Gordon Ramsay airs, detailing his efforts to launch his latest ambitious project.
Sign up for the Showbiz newsletter
Thank you!
Gordon Ramsay revealed he was so poor he ate toothpaste as a childCredit: ShutterstockThe TV chef’s new six-part Netflix documentary, Being Gordon Ramsay is now availableCredit: Getty
Britain’s highest eaterie, Restaurant Gordon Ramsay High is on the 60th floor of skyscraper 22 Bishopsgate in the City of London.
Having trained under Marco Pierre White, aged 35 he set up his first eponymous restaurant, winning three coveted Michelin stars shortly after.
He now has eateries all across the globe, and is arguably the planet’s most famous chef.
His work ethic is relentless – possibly a result of his humble upbringing.
In one episode, Gordon gets emotional recalling his own childhood struggles, growing up on a council estate in Glasgow.
Relying on food vouchers at school to eat, he speaks powerfully on the embarrassment of being desperately poor.
Today, he has teamed up with a fantastic charity, Feeding Britain, to tackle child poverty. The aim is to provide Britain’s 800,000 kids in poverty with affordable food.
Gordon has quietly and personally donated “very heavily” to the cause. Shockingly Gordon recalls: “I was hungry all the time, there was no food in the house.
“I was sometimes too embarrassed to use my vouchers to get mt free shepherds pie in case, you know, aged 15 or 16, a girl I fancied saw me.
”I was a skinny f***ing bean. I remember eating toothpaste thinking that was delicious because there were multiple nights where we never ate.
“It is appalling that we’re in this situation now. It’s disgusting, an embarrassment. The system’s dysfunctional.”
While Gordon’s father, who died from a heart attack aged 53, was an alcoholic, his younger brother Ronnie is, tragically, a heroin addict.
Having gone for long swathes of time not speaking, he reveals the pair had a reconciliation of sorts on the phone last week.
Becoming visibly emotional, Gordon recalls: “It was just sad because at the end of that call he said, ‘did I hear you ask for my bank details? I’ve got no electricity’.
“And so I said, ‘Come on, Ronnie, you know damn well if I knew that was going on electricity, I would. But I know full well that’s going to go on drugs.’ ”’And it pains me, it kills me, mate.’
“We’ve been down this road so many times.”
Gordon’s new Netflix series will see the star put all his energy into his new project, 22 Bishopsgate.
Home to Britain’s tallest restaurant, its Restaurant Gordon Ramsay High, an intimate 12-seater chef’s table experience, has already earned him another Michelin star.
I’ve seen the show, and it’s brilliant, giving viewers a fly-on-the-wall look into Gordon’s frenetic and fabulous – he and Tana are parents to six kids – home life, as well as the sheer hell of getting a new business off the ground.
”I won’t watch it,” he smiles. “I never ever watch myself on telly because it’s just incredibly nerve-wracking.
“I think when you’ve done it and lived it, the last thing you want to do is sit there with lots of popcorn. There’s a level of embarrassment.”
Even without Gordon’s viewership, it is sure to be another Netflix smash.
Gordon’s new Netflix series will see the star put all his energy into his new projectCredit: Getty
The star, who is now cancer free, is set to return to our TV screens with her new three-part ITV series, Wonders of the Frozen South, which documents her 23-day voyage across the Southern Ocean.
The journey took Julia to Paradise Harbour on Antarctica’s western edge, where she tackled a short hill climb before stopping to absorb the stunning landscape around her.
However Julia has since revealed her health battle had held her back as she admitted that she wouldn’t have been able to travel alone a few years ago as she said she didn’t feel “brave enough” to leave her family.
During an appearance on Friday’s (February 13) episode of Lorraine, Julia said: “After I went through the breast cancer diagnosis in 2021 then I had my mastectomy, there was a very tender emotional time in my life where I didn’t think I would ever want to leave my family again.”
She continued: “I don’t mean anybody wants to leave them but I didn’t think I’d be brave enough to. You just want everybody that you care about to be as close as possible. So the fact that five years on, I’ve been as far away from home as you could possibly get.”
Following her ordeal, Julia has undergone major lifestyle transformations, including a complete reassessment of her eating habits.
She’s now adopted a cleaner approach to nutrition, prioritising whole foods, beneficial fats and high-quality proteins, while steering clear of sugar and heavily processed items.
The television star has also cut out alcohol after medical advice highlighted that even moderate drinking could heighten the chances of cancer returning.
Stress management has additionally become a central focus, with Julia now practising meditation, breathing exercises, keeping a journal and spending time in nature each day.
Speaking to Bella magazine previously, she emphasised: “Stress and emotional health are things that we should all take very seriously. People don’t think that they have a physical impact, but they do.”
The broadcaster has also transformed her approach to skincare, explaining: “I’ve always been a sucker for beauty products, but after my diagnosis I became much more conscious about what I put on my skin and the potential impact of chemicals we often don’t think twice about.
“Now my make-up, skincare and sun lotions are clean. I love Green People because it’s organic and marine-friendly, and the brand also donates to the Marine Conservation Society.”
The first episode of Julia Bradbury’s Wonders of the Frozen South airs on February 15 at 12.45pm on ITV and Lorraine airs weekdays from 9:30am on ITV1 and ITVX
Weekly insights and analysis on the latest developments in military technology, strategy, and foreign policy.
Welcome to Bunker Talk. This is a weekend open discussion post for the best commenting crew on the net, in which we can chat about all the stuff that went on this week that we didn’t cover. We can also talk about the stuff we did or whatever else grabs your interest. In other words, it’s an off-topic thread.
This week’s second caption reads:
NANTWICH, ENGLAND – MAY 24: A general view outside of the former RAF Hack Green secret nuclear bunker on May 24, 2023 in Nantwich, England. Hack Green played a central role in the defence of Britain for almost sixty years. It was chosen during WW2 to protect the land between Birmingham and Liverpool from hostile attack and as a location for the new RADAR equipment. The bunker went on to be used for shelter and protection during the Cold War. As relations between East and West thawed many of the UK’s nuclear bunkers were sold off. The Secret Bunker is now privately owned by the Siebert family and is run as a museum trust. (Photo by Christopher Furlong/Getty Images)
Also, a reminder:
Prime Directives!
If you want to talk politics, do so respectfully and know that there’s always somebody that isn’t going to agree with you.
If you have political differences, hash it out respectfully, stick to the facts, and no childish name-calling or personal attacks of any kind. If you can’t handle yourself in that manner, then please, discuss virtually anything else.
No drive-by garbage political memes. No conspiracy theory rants. Links to crackpot sites will be axed, too. Trolling and shitposting will not be tolerated. No obsessive behavior about other users. Just don’t interact with folks you don’t like.
Do not be a sucker and feed trolls! That’s as much on you as on them. Use the mute button if you don’t like what you see.
So unless you have something of quality to say, know how to treat people with respect, understand that everyone isn’t going to subscribe to your exact same worldview, and have come to terms with the reality that there is no perfect solution when it comes to moderation of a community like this, it’s probably best to just move on.
Finally, as always, report offenders, please. This doesn’t mean reporting people who don’t share your political views, but we really need your help in this regard.
The world braced for a Washington-made rupture last year. Trade held up, while China flooded many regions with its exports.
The world entered 2025 expecting a trade shock stamped “Made in Washington.” US President Donald Trump vowed to shrink chronic deficits and pledged a tariff-driven reset that would force companies—and trading partners—into new lanes. The shock never fully arrived.
Global commerce kept moving, prices for traded goods didn’t spiral, and exemptions and carve-outs softened the blow. The year still produced a real shift in the trade landscape—just not the one most people were watching for. China’s export engine accelerated, widening its surplus and pushing its cheaper goods deeper into markets in Southeast Asia and Europe, to the concern of those regions.
Meanwhile, the fastest-growing slice of trade wasn’t steel, cars, or containers; it was services. “Trade in services is growing at least twice as fast as trade in goods, and the US is a very important player there,” says Marc Gilbert, who leads the Center for Geopolitics at the Boston Consulting Group (BCG).
The Shock That Wasn’t — And The Shifts Nobody Saw Coming
As the dust begins to settle on a tumultuous 2025, the trade outlook for this year appears calmer. Trump is looking toward the midterm congressional elections, with an electorate fixated on rising prices that his tariffs can only aggravate. Old-fashioned political upheaval could accelerate, though, as the US leader threatens military action in half a dozen countries. “This year should see more economic stability but more geopolitical volatility,” says Cedric Chehab, Singapore-based chief economist at BMI, a subsidiary of Fitch Solutions.
Marc Gilbert, who leads the Center for Geopolitics, Boston Consulting Group
Trump’s 2016 election, followed by the supply chain disruptions of the Covid-19 pandemic, set in motion new megatrends in world trade and international relations: diversification of supply chains to avoid bottlenecks, “China+1” investment—in which companies keep operations in China while expanding production elsewhere—to reduce dependence on Beijing, a US leaning more toward its American neighbors, and South-South trade growing faster than commerce with either of the two superpowers.
All should continue into 2026 unless they don’t: for instance, if Trump decides to tear up the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), which is up for review this year; if China decides the time is ripe to force “reunification” with Taiwan; if Trump reinstates the 10% tariff on Europe that he recently shelved amid European opposition to his Greenland acquisition demands; or if the US Supreme Court, in a case now before it, strikes down the legal strategy underpinning his tariff regime, triggering a torrent of lawsuits by companies seeking refunds of tariffs already paid.
“Every executive in the world is thinking about the balance between efficiency and resilience,” says Drew DeLong, global lead of Geopolitical Dynamics at consulting firm Kearney. “The age of corporate statecraft is beginning.”
Trump turned the world on its head with his April 2 announcement of the eye-popping “Liberation Day” tariffs. By year’s end, the globe was back on its feet, largely because Trump lowered many of his announced duties. The US goods trade deficit fell to multiyear lows in the last few months of the year. But that may have reflected importers drawing down inventories that had swelled ahead of expected tariffs.
For the rest of the world, commerce had a bumper year. According to UN Trade and Development, combined goods and services trade surged by 7% to more than $35 trillion. The price of traded goods rose at a tolerable pace despite rising US levies and actually fell in the fourth quarter. “The rhetoric on trade contraction is way ahead of the data,” says Gary Hufbauer, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE).
The US is less important in this picture than it might appear from Washington, accounting for just 16% of global imports, BCG’s Gilbert estimates, although as much as 40% might be “affected” by the No. 1 economy. That includes, for example, components shipped from one Asian country to another for a product ultimately sold in the US.
After US stocks crashed 12% over the week following the April 2 announcement, Trump quickly backpedaled from his Liberation Day targets. Baseline tariffs on major trading partners outside North America—the EU, Japan, and South Korea—settled at 15%-20%. With US manufacturers paying similar rates on imported raw materials or components, the result was something like an even playing field. The Trump administration steadily issued tariff exemptions for irreplaceable imports, including semiconductors and pharmaceuticals as well as coffee and bananas.
China’s Trade Boom
Trump has also made concessions to archrival China, as President Xi Jinping pushed back by threatening to disrupt the flow of essential rare-earth metals. While the US baseline tariff on China remains at 45%, exemptions and carve-outs reduced the effective rate to half that level. “The established trajectory is for the US to end up tariffing other countries as much as China,” says Brad Setser, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) in Washington.
While US policy gyrated, China’s trade trajectory was consistently upward last year. Beijing’s global trade surplus surged by 20% to nearly $1.2 trillion. It offset falling US sales with a more than 10% increase in sales to nations in Southeast Asia, collectively China’s biggest market, and a greater than 8% rise in exports to the EU.
This breakout year capped a decade-long shift in global trade from the US to China. That shift has made export-led growth much more difficult for emerging economies, BMI’s Chehab says. “Ten or 20 years ago, most countries’ largest trading partner was the US, which ran trade deficits,” he says. “Now it is China, which runs surpluses.”
Customers everywhere are seeking instruments to stem the Chinese export tsunami. EU President Ursula von der Leyen has announced a policy of “derisking” from China. Japan is offering “China-exit subsidies” to suppliers who relocate elsewhere. Developing Asian markets are considering sectoral tariffs on steel and strategic products.
Success is unclear. A generation of policy and hard work has made China’s comparative advantage in manufacturing all but unassailable. “Energy prices are quite low, and they can produce on a scale that is incredible,” Chehab says.
China is expanding its dominance into key technologies of the future, particularly those essential for the green-energy transition. Shenzhen-based electric-vehicle champion BYD surpassed US-based Tesla as the global sales leader last year. Total clean-energy exports set new records for the first eight months of 2025, driven by a 75% increase in sales to ASEAN customers, according to industry monitor Ember Energy Research.
The world’s No. 2 economy maintains a lock on other, less flashy but no less essential technologies, from copper alloys to legacy microchips that have become too low-margin to interest Silicon Valley. “Synthetic fibers for apparel, lagging-edge chips: these are the kinds of areas where China says, ‘We are going to win,’” Kearney’s DeLong says.
And then there is the chokehold on rare earths that Xi has already effectively wielded against Trump. “China has got the West over a barrel, as things stand right now,” concludes James Kynge, senior research fellow for China and the World with the Asia-Pacific Programme at the UK think tank Chatham House. “It will take a decade or more to recreate viable parts of the Chinese supply chain in different geographies.”
China could rebalance its trade more effectively through internal policy changes that shift wealth to consumers. Increased purchasing power would boost imports and absorb some excess domestic manufacturing capacity. “The puzzle with China is the absence of imports, whether aircraft or European handbags,” CFR’s Setser says.
The most dramatic effect could come from Beijing instituting pensions and other social-welfare transfers on the model of fully developed economies, PIIE’s Hufbauer says. That does not seem to be on Xi’s agenda. “They do not want to build out a social safety net,” Hufbauer says. “They want to direct resources into frontier technology.”
What Will Happen To The USMCA?
In the US sphere, the main event of 2026 is a review of the USMCA, built into the agreement when Trump signed it during his first term in 2018. The president, true to form, has hinted at annulling the pact, which regulates about 30% of US trade. “We don’t need cars made in Canada. We don’t need cars made in Mexico,” he remarked while touring a Ford Motor factory in Dearborn, Michigan, in January.
Brad Setser, Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations
But Trump left most USMCA provisions untouched through 2025, and trade watchers are betting the accord will survive with relatively minor changes. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer struck a more measured tone in congressional testimony in December. “The USMCA has been successful to a certain degree,” he testified. “From the information we have received from interested stakeholders, there is broad support for the agreement.”
“There’s a growing recognition of how important USMCA is,” DeLong says. “The US trade representative received over 1,500 comments from companies. I think it survives with stronger rules of origin and some incentives for specifically US content.”
If so, Mexico could emerge from the current trade upheaval as a big winner, with the North American nearshoring trend accelerating and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum toning down her predecessor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s, hostility toward business. “This whole story has been great for Mexico,” Hufbauer says. “They’ve improved their position in the US market.”
Over time, the dominance of China and the US in world trade will decline, BCG’s Gilbert predicts. The firm’s 10-year projections show US trade, including services, increasing by 1.5% annually; China’s by 2%; and the rest of the world’s by 2.5%.
One reason is simple arithmetic: India and parts of East Asia are growing faster than China, with explosive potential for both imports and exports. Vietnam’s position as a rising export power seems cemented; its trade volume shrugged off global turmoil, rising nearly 18% last year.
India, so far a domestically focused economy, is the global trade wild card as its economy continues to boom by more than 6% annually and multinational champions like Apple build advanced manufacturing there. “India has improved a lot on infrastructure and the availability of skilled labor,” Gilbert says. “It’s one to watch.”
The EU And Beyond
The world beyond the US and China is also striking back with a wave of diplomacy leaning toward free trade. The EU, sandwiched between Chinese competition and US protectionism, is taking the lead. The EU and India signed a two-way trade agreement on January 27 that slashes tariffs.
Brussels also inked a trade deal with South America’s Mercosur bloc, dominated by Brazil, early this year after a quarter-century of negotiations, although the EU Parliament voted to delay enacting it until it passes a legal review. New Delhi, stung by a 50% tariff Trump imposed as punishment for buying Russian oil, finalized a trade agreement with the UK last year.
London joined the other 11 members of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership in late 2024, after Trump’s reelection. The United Arab Emirates, a rising power in the Middle East, is pushing for free trade with almost everyplace except Washington and Beijing. “Trade deals are happening in months that would have taken decades,” DeLong summarizes.
None of that means the world can easily return to the free-trading consensus that reigned in the decades following the Cold War. The supply chain shocks of the pandemic, China’s political assertiveness, and the working-class resentment across the developed world that Trump channels are pushing toward a new paradigm, though its details remain fuzzy at best. “There’s a positioning of economic security as national security,” DeLong says.
On the other hand, no one can repeal the law of comparative advantage in an ever more complex global economy. Experts’ discussions focus on how trade between nations might shift or slow, not reverse. “When you look at the data, you don’t see too much evidence of a global trade shock,” CFR’s Setser notes.
Within the US, Trump did not visibly turn any clocks back during the first year of his second term. Ed Gresser, director for trade and global markets at the Progressive Policy Institute in Washington, points out that both manufacturing employment and manufacturing’s share of GDP dipped in 2025.
Discontent with China’s export juggernaut might take a back seat in the coming years to fears that US-based internet and AI providers will control the global digital high ground, particularly if Washington continues to use it for geopolitical leverage. “The real growth areas in international trade are data and digitization, and it’s not lost on any nation that the US is a leading provider,” BCG’s Gilbert says.
All of the above leaves decision-makers at multinational corporations in an unenviable position: knowing the deck of world politics and trade is being reshuffled yet not knowing what hand they will ultimately be dealt. “C-suites are embedding geopolitics into strategic and capital allocation decisions in a much more formalized way,” Gilbert says. “But large capital outlays are still in the domain of planning and preparation.”
Notable exceptions were the so-called hyperscalers in AI and their suppliers, who are shelling out capital everywhere at once.
Weekly insights and analysis on the latest developments in military technology, strategy, and foreign policy.
Welcome to Bunker Talk. This is a weekend open discussion post for the best commenting crew on the net, in which we can chat about all the stuff that went on this week that we didn’t cover. We can also talk about the stuff we did or whatever else grabs your interest. In other words, it’s an off-topic thread.
This week’s second caption reads:
The Launch Control Center, with blast door at left, underground at the Oscar-1 Minuteman Missile Alert Facility on Whiteman Air Force Base, Missouri, June 18, 2020. The Oscar-01 MAF was constructed in 1963 and determined to be eligible for the National Register of Historic Places (NRHP) by Missouri SHPO in 1998. The facility consists of a one-story surface structure, assembled as a Launch Control Support Building (LCSB), and two sub-surface, re-enforced concrete encapsulated steel pods- a Launch Control Center (LCC) and Launch Control Equipment Building (LCEB). These two sub-surface wings are connected by a Tunnel Junction and accessed by an elevator. (U.S. Air Force photo by Tech. Sgt. Alexander W. Riedel)
Also, a reminder:
Prime Directives!
If you want to talk politics, do so respectfully and know that there’s always somebody that isn’t going to agree with you.
If you have political differences, hash it out respectfully, stick to the facts, and no childish name-calling or personal attacks of any kind. If you can’t handle yourself in that manner, then please, discuss virtually anything else.
No drive-by garbage political memes. No conspiracy theory rants. Links to crackpot sites will be axed, too. Trolling and shitposting will not be tolerated. No obsessive behavior about other users. Just don’t interact with folks you don’t like.
Do not be a sucker and feed trolls! That’s as much on you as on them. Use the mute button if you don’t like what you see.
So unless you have something of quality to say, know how to treat people with respect, understand that everyone isn’t going to subscribe to your exact same worldview, and have come to terms with the reality that there is no perfect solution when it comes to moderation of a community like this, it’s probably best to just move on.
Finally, as always, report offenders, please. This doesn’t mean reporting people who don’t share your political views, but we really need your help in this regard.
