dangers

HAMAS does not believe in peace and still poses a chilling threat to the West, analysts have warned.

The terror group signed up to Trump’s peace plan which says it must disarm, but has not specifically pledged to do so – and experts have taken this as a bad omen.

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A ceasefire officially came into force on Friday – clearing the way for the first phase of Donald Trump’s sweeping peace plan to return the hostages and demilitarise Gaza.

The US announced it would deploy up to 200 troops to Israel to help support peacekeeping efforts in Gaza.

However, signs of trouble are already brewing after a Hamas official rejected the idea of Tony Blair running the strip – one of Trump’s cornerstone measures.

Egyptian-born scholar Dalia Ziada said the much-heralded Gaza ceasefire could prove a deadly illusion.

Ziada, who defied her country’s consensus by backing Israel and was forced to flee after death threats, told The Sun: “Part of me is very happy because finally this brutal war is coming to an end.

“The hostages will be returned. The people in Gaza will be relieved from the horrors of the war.

“Hamas is obviously defeated to the point that they had to finally accept a ceasefire deal.”

But she praised Washington’s muscular return to Middle East power politics: “I am excited to see the United States coming back to the Middle East with its heavy weight and being involved on that level as a partner.”

Ziada’s optimism about a deal stops there, however – warning that the world is underestimating the nature of the enemy.

“This deal is being made with a terrorist organisation, Hamas,” she said.

“Hamas adopts the jihad ideology, violent resistance ideology. They do not believe in peace.”

Even the language, she noted, betrays Hamas’s intent.

“Actually, what they believe in is Hudna. Hudna is truce,” Ziada explained.

“It’s mainly: ‘Let’s take a break so we can rearm, regroup and come back and kill you again’.”

Hussain Abdul-Hussain, an experienced war journalist and researcher, agrees that Hamas will “absolutely not” honour disarmament.

He pointed to their reluctance throughout negotiations to relinquish weapons – and emphasised they have agreed to “freeze their activity and take a break” rather than “give this up for good”.

Abdul-Hussain believes the ceasefire will hold for a while, but not forever.

He ominously warned: “It [fighting] will come back. We just don’t know when.”

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Ziada argues that Hamas only accepted Trump’s ceasefire plan because they ran out of options.

She said: “Actually, it’s the last card in Hamas’ hands. The last card in Hamas’ hands was hostages. And that’s why they did everything they can to avoid giving away this card.

“But now Hamas has no other option but to accept, especially after President Trump’s very clear and very direct threatening to them that in case they do not agree, there will be total obliteration.”

But the deal is being struck with “Hamas leaders in suits” in Doha, not the hardened fighters still embedded in Gaza.

That split could prove explosive.

Ziada warned: “I don’t expect that the militia on the ground will be very cooperative.

“We started to see the first sign of this lack of cooperation from the very confused reports coming out of Hamas.”

‘Heavyweight murderers’ loose on the streets

While the remaining Hamas leaders have decided to make enough of the right noises to satisfy the peace deal conditions, they have had no contact with the prisoners who are to be released from Israeli jails.

As part of the deal, Israel will release 250 life sentence prisoners – who likely harbour a severe grudge against Israel and the West.

Richard Pater, CEO of the Britain Israel Communications and Research Centre (BICOM), said: “250 heavyweight murderers, Palestinian terrorists, are being released,

“They’re not being released back into the West Bank and they’ll never be allowed to enter Israel – but some of them are going to be moved to Gaza.”

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He said it is a major concern that one of the released convicts will become the new Yahya Sinwar – the terrorist mastermind of October 7.

Sinwar was himself released in a similar prisoner exchange.

Pater fears this deal is “kicking the can down the road”, because “there will be the motivation and the ability of these hardened terrorist leaders to potentially rebuild”.

‘Zero trust’

Asked whether she believed Hamas would stick to the deal, Ziada was brutally clear: “There are no guarantees. First of all, I have zero faith or zero trust in Hamas.

“One hundred per cent. I mean, zero, zero trust in Hamas.”

Even with heavyweights like Egypt, Qatar and Turkey leaning on Hamas to comply, she believes this first stage — halting fighting and releasing hostages — will be the easy part.

The rest of Trump’s 20-point peace plan will be far harder.

She said: “This is, by the way, the easiest step because this is mainly about stop the war, release the hostages, exchange prisoners. That’s it.

“The most difficult part is the other 19 points on the plan.”

Pater warned “there are 101 problems that can still occur” throughout stages two and three of the peace plan – when Hamas is supposed to disarm and the IDF eventually withdraw entirely.

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‘They will never disarm’

If anyone imagines Hamas laying down its weapons, Ziada said, they are deluding themselves.

“At this moment Hamas did not say very clearly that they will disarm,” she said.

“They will not disarm under any condition or any pressure. I cannot even picture it like Hamas going and handing their weapons because this means their end.”

Even a temporary pause in violence could serve to revive Hamas’s jihadist ambitions.

“Hamas was drained in the past month to the extent that they started to reach out to the camps of the people displaced inside Gaza and recruit teenagers,” Ziada revealed.

“This will once again revive Hamas appetite to go back to this jihadist struggle.”

And Hamas has already signalled its intent.

Ziada said: “Only days ago in the anniversary of October 7, Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad issued a celebratory statement wherein they said, ‘we will continue our Jihad, we will continue our violent resistance’.”

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The terror within

Ziada’s most chilling warning, however, goes far beyond Gaza.

She said the threat has now metastasised into Western societies themselves.

“People are so focused on Gaza like we are all zooming in into Gaza, but we fail to see the consequences of what the past two years has done to our world,” she said.

“The threat to the UK is coming from inside the UK. The threat to the US security is coming from inside the US.

“The attack on the West will continue — the attack on Western values and Western principles and Western way of life will continue in different forms, either by violence or even through nonviolent means as we see in political arenas.”

Abdul-Hussain reminded us that violent Islamist attacks predate October 7, and similarly warned that threat is not going away.

He said: “This is an issue that the West will have to deal with, with or without peace or ceasefire or whatever arrangement exists between Israel and the Palestinians.

And Pater insisted that the UK needs a programme of deradicalisation just as much as Gaza.

He said: “For example, the UK banning the Muslim Brotherhood movement, proscribing it as a terror organisation, not being afraid to call out Islamic extremism for what it is, will be important steps to deradicalise the population.”

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“Palestine has become the all-encompassing flag and image for this Islamist global movement. But this movement exists.

“It exists in the West and Gaza is just an extension of it.”

A fragile hope

Yet even amid the warnings, Ziada said there is reason to hope.

She said: “The tears I saw in the eyes of the hostages’ families, their excitement that their children and family members will finally be coming back from this hell… it puts a smile on my face.”

For now, she admits, the world will celebrate a pause in the bloodshed.

But her message is clear: Hamas is not finished — and the West ignores that reality at its peril.

VOV 129: The Dangers of Farming Amidst Insecurity | RSS.com

You used to spend long days on the farm, planting a variety of crops and bringing home a full harvest. Now, you work only a few hours under the watch of soldiers. You can’t go far from town, and you can’t plant tall crops anymore because they can conceal terrorists. 

So you plant only beans and groundnuts, but the yield is never enough. And each time you step onto the farm, you know you might hear gunshots, and you would have to run for your life.

Reported and scripted by Sabiqah Bello

Voice acting by Rukayya Saeed

Multimedia editor is Anthony Asemota

Executive producer is Ahmad Salkida

In the latest instance of the war in Ukraine spilling over into neighboring countries, officials in Estonia say a Ukrainian one-way attack drone exploded inside that Baltic nation about 50 miles west of the border with Russia. They blamed Russian jamming for sending the drone off course, likely during an attack on a Russian gas processing plant near St. Petersburg. 

While there have been previous incidents of attack drones flying into neighboring nations, this appears to be the first publicly known case of a Ukrainian drone entering a non-combatant’s airspace since a Tu-141 jet-powered one flew into Croatia in March 2022. In addition, aside from raising concerns about collateral damage, the Estonian drone incident highlights worries about how electronic warfare is affecting civilian aviation and communications.

A farmer found pieces of a drone and a crater in his field and called authorities, the head of Estonia’s Internal Security Service (ISS) told reporters Tuesday morning. There were no injuries or major property damage, however Estonian authorities warned that if the drone hit a residential building, the consequences could have been far more severe. Destruction of civilian buildings and infrastructure and resulting loss of life is a frequent occurrence in Ukraine.

“Based on very preliminary data, we estimate that the drone came down already in the early hours of Sunday, around 4 a.m. to 5 a.m.,” ISS Director General Margo Palloson told reporters on Tuesday, according to the official Estonian ERR news. “We have reason to believe that this may be a Ukrainian drone that was [targeting] inland Russian sites but was diverted from its course by Russia’s GPS jamming and other electronic warfare measures, causing it to veer into Estonian airspace. At this time, there is nothing to indicate that it could be a Russian drone.”

Russia “is using very strong GPS jamming and spoofing near our borders,” Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur told the Estonian Postimees newspaper. “As a result, one day a drone ends up in Lithuania, the next day in Latvia, and now one has reached Estonia. These objects fly at very low altitudes to avoid detection by Russia, and that’s precisely why they are difficult to detect.”

Also on Sunday, another drone crashed into the Russian side of Lake Peipus, a large body of water separating eastern Estonia and western Russia, Estonian officials said. That same day, Ukraine carried out a drone attack on the Novatek gas processing complex. Located in the port of Ust-Luga, this is Russia’s largest liquefied gas producer, located about 20 miles from the Estonian border. Video emerged from the scene showing an explosion followed by a massive fire that is still burning.

You can see the results of that attack in the following video.

Speaking at the press conference, Pevkur said these incidents highlight the need for sensors that can detect low-flying drones.

“Can this create full blanket coverage?” he asked rhetorically. “Theoretically, yes — it depends on how many resources we put into it. Our capabilities will improve significantly. Whether it will be 100 percent coverage, time will tell. At the same time, the war in Ukraine shows that 100 percent coverage does not exist anywhere.”

Estonia’s Prime Minister Kristen Michal called for a “layered air defense” to prevent further incursions. While neither official offered specifics about what these sensors and defenses would be, a layered defense can help plug surveillance gaps, but the most effective way of surveilling for low and slow-flying drones, as well as other low-flying aircraft, is by providing persistent look-down radar capabilities. Airborne early warning and control aircraft can provide this but keeping one airborne continuously is extremely resource intensive. Poland is working to build a network of aerostats that carry look-down radars. They are designed to detect low-flying drones, as well as aircraft and cruise missiles. You can read more about that in our story here.

Last week, Polish officials said a suspected Russian drone crashed into a cornfield near the village of Osiny, about 60 miles southeast of Warsaw. 

Polish Gen. Dariusz Malinowski, deputy commander of Armed Forces Operational Command, said it was a military drone propelled by a Chinese-produced engine, according to The Guardian. As we have previously reported, Chinese engines are a basic component of many Russian drones.

“I’ll say one thing that is certain: Russia will never admit to this,” said Poland’s Deputy Prime Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz. “Just as it hasn’t admitted to any of the eight incidents in Moldova, three incidents in Romania, three in Lithuania, two in Latvia, or the one drone incident in Bulgaria.”

Meanwhile, frequent missile and drone attacks by Russia have led to multiple instances of NATO jets scrambling in response.

While this appears to be the first time a Ukrainian drone went off course into a non-combatant’s territory in more than three years, an errant Ukrainian air defense munition was suspected of killing two in Poland in 2022.

Beyond having errant weapons landing on neighboring countries, Ukraine’s drone campaign on Russia is playing havoc with civil aviation there. The latest example took place Sunday, when a passenger plane carrying Russians heading to St. Petersburg was forced to make an emergency landing in Estonia early Sunday morning due to the aforementioned Ukrainian drone attack, Postimees reported.

“The aircraft was rerouted to land in Tallinn, as it could not land at Pulkovo Airport due to a temporary closure,” Margot Holts, head of Communications and Marketing at Tallinn Airport, told the publication. The aircraft, operated by Egyptian carrier AlMasria Universal Airlines, had departed from Sharm El Sheikh and landed in Tallinn at 5:33 a.m. local time. It was able to continue its journey to St. Petersburg nearly six hours later.

The suspected Ukrainian drone crash also raises the specter of another major problem affecting countries outside the war zone. European governments have repeatedly accused Moscow of jamming GPS in recent years. The issue has been so concerning that last month, the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) warned that Russian GPS jamming and other commercially-used signals near the Baltic Sea posed a “serious threat” to civilian aviation, especially in Latvia, Poland, Lithuania, Estonia, Finland and Sweden.

In addition, France, the Netherlands, Sweden, Luxembourg and Ukraine filed complaints last year after Russian interference reportedly “disrupted air traffic control systems and hijacked television broadcasts, including children’s programming, replacing them with war propaganda,” according to the Moscow Times.

The International Telecommunication Union (ITU), a member of the UN, “demanded that Russia stop interfering with the satellite systems of European countries,” the publication reported. The ITU blamed “ground stations located in the areas of Moscow, Kaliningrad and Pavlovka” and demanded that Russia immediately cease its actions and investigate the incidents.

As we previously reported, last year, U.K. authorities confirmed that a Royal Air Force Dassault 900LX business jet transporting Grant Shapps, at the time the U.K. defense secretary, experienced GPS jamming while flying near Russia’s Kaliningrad enclave.

From our story at the time: “It’s critical to note that GPS jamming can be executed over a broad area. So it is difficult to ascertain with any degree of certainty whether Shapps’ aircraft was specifically targeted and the U.K. has offered no evidence that directly points to that being the case. Still, its flight path would have been easily tracked via Russian radar and visible on flight-tracking websites.

It has also been pointed out that a very large number of other aircraft — some 511 according to open-source intelligence analyst Markus Jonsson — were also jammed on the same day in the region. Jonsson has also questioned the likelihood of jammers being directed against individual planes in a targeted fashion.”

All this comes as both Russia and Ukraine are doing everything they possibly can to produce as many long-range standoff attack weapons as possible. This also includes developing missiles and drones with increasing range and payloads. As we recently reported, Ukraine’s new Flamingo ground-launched long-range cruise missile is said to have a range of 1,864 miles (3,000 kilometers) and a warhead weighing 2,535 pounds (1,150 kilograms). That would make Flamingo a much farther-reaching and more destructive weapon than any missile or one-way-attack drone available to Ukraine now.

Russia, too, is making advances in its missile and drone technology. 

The goal to all this is to ratchet-up the pace of long-range cross-border attacks. This snowballing race to field newer, deadlier and longer-reaching weapons and strike more frequently will only raise the risk of munitions straying into neighboring countries, and the possibility that a major inadvertent destructive event could add new volatility to the conflict.

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