Big news for retirees is on the way in just 17 days.
Seventeen days. That’s how much longer Social Security beneficiaries must wait to find out how big their “raise” will be in 2026.
The Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) countdown is about to kick into overdrive. But you don’t have to sit on pins and needles in anticipation of the official COLA announcement on Oct. 15, 2025, to have a pretty good feel for what the increase will be.
Image source: Getty Images.
The best COLA prediction right now
If you want to know how big of a Social Security benefit increase to expect, probably the best place to turn is The Senior Citizens League (TSCL). This nonprofit organization has advocated for seniors since 1992, initially as part of The Retired Enlisted Association and then as an independent entity beginning in 1994.
TSCL developed a sophisticated statistical model that projects the next Social Security COLA. This model is updated monthly. It incorporates inflation and unemployment data, as well as the interest rates set by the Federal Reserve.
Earlier this month, TSCL announced its final prediction for the 2026 Social Security COLA. The organization projects an increase of 2.7%, a little higher than the 2.5% COLA given in 2025. It’s also slightly above the average benefit adjustment over the last 20 years of 2.6%.
How much additional money will this COLA give retirees? It depends on your current benefit amount, of course. However, the average increase will be $54 per month if TSCL’s model is right.
What could change by Oct. 15?
The Social Security Administration (SSA) already has most of the data it needs to calculate next year’s COLA. It will receive the last piece on Oct. 15 when the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases its inflation numbers for September.
SSA doesn’t use the most widely followed inflation metric in the BLS report, the Consumer Price Index. Instead, the agency bases the annual Social Security COLA on a different statistic — the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). As its name indicates, this index measures how much prices have increased for blue-collar workers in urban areas.
The COLA is calculated by determining the percentage increase (if any) between the CPI-W for the third quarter of the current year and the CPI-W in the third quarter of the previous year. SSA only needs to plug in the CPI-W for September to crunch the numbers.
Could the actual 2026 COLA that will be announced on Oct. 15 differ from the 2.7% predicted by TSCL? Absolutely. Inflation could be higher in September than anticipated, perhaps due to the impact of tariffs making their way through the U.S. economy. On the other hand, the effects of tariffs could be more muted than TSCL’s model projects, resulting in a lower COLA. Either way, TSCL’s projected number will probably be close to the actual 2026 COLA.
One “gotcha”
Retirees shouldn’t count on having an additional 2.7%, give or take a couple of percentage points, reach their bank accounts, though. There’s one “gotcha” that will likely reduce how much extra money you’ll receive.
Most retirees ages 65 and older have their Medicare premiums automatically deducted from their monthly Social Security benefit payments. Unfortunately, your Medicare Part B premiums will almost certainly be much higher than the expected 2.7% Social Security increase.
The Medicare Trustees project that Part B premiums will rise by 11.6%. This translates to an extra expense of $21.50, enough to wipe out much of the average retiree COLA of $54. The annual Medicare Part B deductible will also likely jump by $31 to $288 next year.
The countdown is on for finding out the exact amounts for the 2026 Medicare Part B premiums and deductibles, too. While the numbers will probably be announced in October, retirees might not learn how their pocketbooks will be impacted as soon as they learn what their Social Security COLA will be.
The Channel 4 panel show returned this evening with comedians Kevin Bridges and Alex Brooker back as team captains.
The 8 Out of 10 Cats Does Countdown set experienced a blackout thanks to one of its celebrity contestants.
Presenter Jimmy Carr returned for the latest Channel 4 episode of the fan-favourite mash-up show, along with Susie Dent and Rachel Riley overseeing proceedings.
This time around, comedians Kevin Bridges and Alex Brooker were appointed the team captains, working with their team mates Judi Love and Joe Wilkinson respectively.
As always, the guests are invited to bring in a mascot to sit by their desks throughout the show with some bizarre choices made over the years.
When Carr questioned what Wilkinson had brought along with him, he pointed to the urn sitting on his desk, stating it was his former electrician’s ashes.
Comedian Joe Wilkinson pretended to throw his late electrician’s ashes into a fuse box on 8 Out of 10 Cats Does Countdown. (Image: CHANNEL 4)
Carr asked him to repeat what he brought, and so Wilkinson stated again what they were before blankly staring at the host. Wilkinson went on to explain that his electrician’s dream was to have his ashes scattered into the show’s fuse box.
So the comedian grabbed the urn, went to the corner of the studio and bowed down to the fuse box twice in memory of his deceased electrician and chucked the ashes onto the system.
Unsurprisingly, this didn’t go well as sparks began to fly and the studio was plunged into darkness.
8 Out of 10 Cats Does Countdown’s set went into darkness after Joe Wilkinson threw “ashes” into a fuse box. (Image: CHANNEL 4)
More sparks then came from the iconic clock itself with Love exclaiming: “My weave!”
Thankfully, this didn’t last long as the power quickly started working again with the audience laughing and applauding.
Along with the rest of the stars, a special guest was also brought to join Susie in Dictionary Corner.
She sat alongside actor and comedian Peter Serafinowicz who reprised his unforgettable alter ego Brian Butterfield especially for the panel series.
8 Out of 10 Cats Does Countdown is available to watch on Channel 4 and All4.
Helen George swaps the world of showbiz for literal shark-infested waters in ITV’s new reality show, while Channel 4’s The Couple Next Door returns with a steamy new story
Helen George is left terrified as she faces sharks in ITV’s new show
Call the Midwife star Helen George is just one of the celebs who’ll be coming face-to-face with one of the sea’s deadliest beasts in ITV’s new reality show Shark! Celebrty Infested Waters tonight.
Proving just how far celebrities will go to stay on the telly, this new reality format sends seven famous faces into shark-filled waters near the Bahamas. 50 years after Jaws became a phenomenon at the cinema, the likes of actor Lenny Henry, comedian Ross Noble and McFly’s Dougie Poynter have signed up for a stomach-churning sequence of dives, where they will encounter various species of shark, getting more perilous each time.
Helen George, Ross Noble, Lenny Henry, Rachel Riley, Ade Adepitan, Lucy Punch and Dougie Poynter take on Shark
Although Countdown’s Rachel Riley is excited for the challenge, most of the celebs look like they want to fire their agents, with Call the Midwife star Helen George declaring she’s terrified of the sea, and Motherland actor Lucy Punch hilariously dismissing the apex predators as ‘savage tubes of teeth.’
There’s a sobering start to the experience, as they meet their guides, including Paul, a former Aussie serviceman who lost his hand and leg to a ten-foot bull shark in a training exercise, but now campaigns for shark conservation.
Acutely aware of the dangers they face, they prepare for their first dive, but with Helen and Lenny both struggling with traumatic childhood memories of swimming pools, just getting underwater is a challenge. Soon, they’re stepping into a cage suspended in the ocean, surrounded by bull sharks, whose every move makes them shake. And it’s only going to get scarier from here. The experts hope the celebs will go home with a new respect – and even affection – for the villains of the sea, but that feels rather optimistic at this point…
Shark! Celebrity Infested Waters begins tonight at 9pm on ITV1 and ITVX.
The Best of the Rest
Michael Mosley: Secrets Of The Superagers, Channel 4, 8pm
If throwing yourself out of a plane is the secret to a better memory, some of us would prefer to just be forgetful… In this eye-opening series, the late Dr Michael Mosley meets inspiring people, who are bucking the trends of ageing. 70-year old Dane is a keen skydiver, whose mind is impressively sharp.
Indeed, the science shows that his time at high altitude has helped promote blood flow to his brain, giving him higher cognitive function. You don’t have to be a daredevil to age well though, as Michael explores the theory that learning new things can ward off dementia. Small children’s brains expand as they pick up new skills, so a group of volunteers test the theory that mastering new hobbies simultaneously can stop your brain shrinking.
After a year of learning Spanish and taking art classes, the stunning results of this experiment will have you googling evening classes in your area.
The Couple Next Door, Channel 4, 9pm
The Couple Next Door returns with series two tonight on Channel 4(Image: Channel 4 / Nicky Hamilton)
This steamy relationship drama returns to the same posh cul de sac, but with a new couple at the heart of the story. Surgeon Charlotte (The Split’s Anabel Scholey) and anaesthetist Jacob (Nashville’s Sam Palladio) work at the same hospital, and their marriage is a happy one. That is until enigmatic new nurse Mia turns up for her first shift.
Immediately overstepping the mark with her colleagues, she makes quite the impression. Later, Charlotte is stunned when Mia moves into the house next door, and she can’t stop thinking about her. How can she afford a huge family home on her own, on a nurse’s salary, and why is she so keen to make friends with resident creep, Alan (Hugh Dennis)?
Meanwhile, Charlotte’s ex, Leo, is back on the scene, as family circumstances force him to return to the hospital. Jacob is unsettled by his return, and turns down a tantalising prospect of promotion to avoid him.
EastEnders, BBC1, 7.30pm
Lauren is surprised to see Oscar again. After shock revelations, she learns where he has been all this time, and begrudgingly agrees to let him stay with her. It’s a decision she may soon regret…
Lexi asks Nigel about his wedding day. Jay is saddened that Nigel is no longer in touch with Julie, and starts looking for her online. Phil warns Jay not to interfere, but he won’t listen.
Linda tells Kat that it’s time for her to sell The Vic?
Emmerdale, ITV, 7.30pm
Kim is blissfully unaware that Dr Crowley is planning to take her to the cleaners. But Joe knows exactly what he’s up to, and arranges to confront him.
Charity desperately wants to help Sarah and tries to persuade Vic to offer to be her surrogate. Vic seems uncomfortable, despite Charity’s pleas. Charity and Cain are on the same page as they keep all options open.
It’s a big day for Lewis as he launches his new menu at the café.
Coronation Street, ITV, 8pm
Mick is growing restless in his cell, worrying about his kids. As he forms a plan, Brody looks for Joanie and Shanice, but Joanie is at Weatherfield High for a taster day. Mick breaks out of prison and heads straight to the school, not knowing that Sally has picked Joanie up early. He follows them back to the Street, with Kit in pursuit.
Meanwhile, Kevin plays for time, telling Tyrone he’ll come clean to Abi about his health after their weekend away.
