Corruption

The Panama Papers, one of the biggest ever data leaks, revealed the vast scale of offshore financial networks used by the global elite.

On April 3, 2016, the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ) and the German newspaper Suddeutsche Zeitung released more than 11.5 million documents from the Panama-based law firm Mossack Fonseca. It exposed a network of offshore shell companies linked to the global financial elite, including current and former government leaders.

More than 350 journalists from over 80 countries worked in secrecy for more than a year to analyse 2.6 terabytes of leaked data then published their findings.

Here’s what we know about the Panama Papers ten years on, and whether the leak led to any changes.

What was the Panama Papers scandal about?

The 2016 Panama Papers scandal was about the leak of 11.5 million confidential documents including emails, contracts and banking statements from the law firm Mossack Fonseca.

The papers revealed a massive global network of offshore shell companies linked to some of the world’s richest people including politicians, business leaders and public figures, spanning countries from the United Kingdom to Russia, Australia to Brazil. They were using companies based in tax havens such as the British Virgin Islands, the Bahamas and Panama to move and store wealth away from the scrutiny of tax authorities.

About 214,000 entities were linked to individuals and companies in over 200 countries and territories. The documents covered from the 1970s up to 2016.

Who leaked the Panama Papers?

The Panama Papers were leaked by an anonymous whistleblower using the pseudonym John Doe, who initially shared the documents with Suddeutsche Zeitung, which then collaborated with journalists worldwide on reporting and releasing the findings.

P Vaidyanathan Iyer, managing editor at The Indian Express and one of the hundreds of journalists who worked on the Panama Papers, said that the process of identifying the information was like “looking for a needle in a haystack”.

“We were continuously, for about six to eight months, just reading data,” he told Al Jazeera.

“My team of three and I had a small cubicle to ourselves in the office, and we were cut off from the rest. Day and night, we were going through data, downloading documents onto our laptops and computers, which were all very secure, with restricted access. It was arduous work,” he added.

Who was exposed?

Hundreds of people, including more than 140 politicians, were identified as directors, shareholders or beneficiaries of offshore shell companies revealed in the Panama Papers. Among them were Mauricio Macri, then president of Argentina, and Petro Poroshenko, who was Ukraine’s fifth president from 2014 to 2019.

Other leaders, including former Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and former Icelandic Prime Minister Sigmundur Gunnlaugsson, were also named – all linked to ownership of shell companies in offshore tax havens.

What are offshore shell companies?

Offshore companies are legal entities incorporated in a jurisdiction outside the owner’s country of residence.

Shell companies, on the other hand, are entities that have “no real substantial business or operations in its place of incorporation or registered office,” Kehinde Olaoye, a professor of commercial law and business law associations at Hamad bin Khalifa University in Qatar, told Al Jazeera.

Shell companies are often used to create legal paperwork to cover for fraudulent or dodgy financial transactions. If they’re based in a country other than the owner’s, they’re offshore shell companies.

Are offshore shell companies illegal?

No. Offshore shell companies are not automatically illegal. The purpose of such companies is to create trusts, which then can be used to protect wealth or create estate planning.

However, “there is always a thin line between legitimate and illegitimate purposes” in using offshore shell companies, Olaoye noted.

“Usually, individuals and companies receive advice from financial advisers and legal advisers on how they can structure their business to take advantage of ‘favourable’ tax benefits,” she said.

Did anyone get in trouble for the Panama Papers?

A month after the Panama Papers were leaked, Iceland’s Gunnlaugsson resigned as prime minister following mass protests. According to the leaked documents, Gunnlaugsson and his wife allegedly established a company, Wintris, in the British Virgin Islands with the assistance of the Panamanian law firm. His resignation led to the fall of the Icelandic government at the time.

In 2017, Pakistan’s Supreme Court also disqualified then prime minister Sharif from office following the leaks, despite an earlier ruling that found insufficient evidence of corruption. The Panama Papers revealed that his children held several companies in the British Virgin Islands. In 2018, Sharif was banned from politics for life.

Mossack Fonseca, which had over 40 offices worldwide, also faced significant operational impacts following the leaks, including staff reductions, and ultimately shut down in 2018. Its co-founders, Jurgen Mossack and the late Ramon Fonseca, were acquitted by a Panamanian court, along with 26 others accused of setting up shell companies implicated in scandals in Brazil and Germany.

How much tax revenue has been recovered since 2016?

Between 2016 and 2026, governments worldwide recovered around $2bn in taxes, penalties and levies, according to the ICIJ. Countries such as the UK, Sweden and France each recovered between $200-250m, while others, including Japan, Mexico and Denmark, recovered around $30m each.

However, the amount that remains unaccounted for is significantly higher.

In India alone, the government brought forward close to 425 tax cases, according to Iyer.

“But the amount realised in taxes, which the government got back into its treasury was just about 150 crore rupees, which is around $16m. Whereas the total tax which was brought under investigation was about $1.5bn,” he noted.

Other countries, including Austria, Slovenia and New Zealand recovered between $1m and $8m.

Panama, the country where the leak was revealed, recovered about $14.1m.

Did the Panama Papers lead to changes in the legal system?

Since the release of the Panama Papers, governments have taken steps to curb the misuse of shell companies by introducing new laws and regulations. They include the Corporate Transparency Act in the US, which requires the disclosure of “beneficial owners”—individuals who ultimately profit from offshore entities — as well as measures to improve information sharing between tax authorities.

The United Nations is also considering draft proposals for a Convention on Taxation. In addition, several nations have signed bilateral double-taxation treaties to reduce tax avoidance and prevent income from being taxed in multiple jurisdictions.

But gaps remain in the global tax system. There’s no one overarching international taxation principle that everyone needs to follow — and often there are overlapping treaties and agreements that allow those with the shrewdest financial advisors to choose, or shop, from among those pacts, based on whatever works best for them.

“The main challenge in international tax law is that there is no multilateral tax convention, which creates problems of tax competition and ‘treaty shopping’,” Olaoye said.

British politician and peer Peter Mandelson tried to help convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein in arranging for a visit by his “goddaughter” to 10 Downing Street at a time when Epstein was in prison for procuring a minor for prostitution, emails released by the US Department of Justice reveal.

Mandelson was serving as business secretary in the government of Prime Minister Gordon Brown and sitting on the House of Lords frontbench at the time. Epstein, meanwhile, was a convicted sex offender and was serving an 18-month sentence in Florida.

In an email exchange, Epstein told Glenn Dubin, a hedge fund manager whose child he called his “goddaughter”, that he would “organize a trip to Number !O, and the House of Lords with Peter Mandelson for you guys”.

On the same day, Epstein wrote directly to Mandelson saying that “the most important person to me next to you of course) is my goddaughter that will be in London on Wednesday and Thursday of next week what can we do to make it a very special trip, I would really appreciate it”.

In the exchange, Mandelson asks, “how old?, to which Epstein replied “15”, adding that she will be with her parents. “House of lords, number 10, just for ten minutes, it would mean a lot to me”, he added.

Mandelson responds: “Fine on all”. Epstein responds: “Great”.

Days later, Mandelson replied that he was “trying my best to accommodate” the request and that “we are still on the case… [and] hope something will fall into place”. Epstein subsequently forwarded Mandelson’s response to Dubin.

‘Andrew had tea with the Dubin kids’

These emails are among thousands of messages in the latest tranche of the Epstein files that mention Mandelson – a central figure in modern British politics for decades, long noted for his ability to survive repeated scandals. The exchange offers a glimpse into how Epstein appeared to leverage his relationship with Mandelson while he was in the United Kingdom’s government. In turn, Mandelson appeared willing to open doors for Epstein while he was a convicted sex offender.

Al Jazeera has contacted Downing Street for comment.

Dubin later wrote to Epstein: “Grt time in buck palace…. ….andrew was great. Thx! G”

Fifteen minutes later, Epstein wrote to convicted child sex trafficker and former girlfriend Ghislaine Maxwell: “andrew had tea with the dubin kids and glenn.”

The emails appear to refer to Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor, ex-prince and brother of Britain’s King Charles. Mountbatten-Windsor was accused by Epstein victim Virginia Giuffre of sexual assault, specifically alleging he raped her on three occasions in 2001 when she was 17, as part of a sex-trafficking ring run by Epstein. These allegations led to a 2021 lawsuit for sexual assault and intentional infliction of emotional distress, which was later settled out of court.

Glenn Dubin’s daughter and Epstein’s so-called goddaughter is Celina Dubin. She is the daughter of Eva Andersson-Dubin, a former girlfriend of Epstein.

Email exchanges suggest that following this visit to London, Epstein stayed in contact with Glenn Dubin’s daughter — who the sex offender called his “goddaughter”.

Calls for UK prime minister to resign

The correspondence raises questions about why Peter Mandelson – who was aware of Epstein’s conviction for procuring a minor for prostitution – was prepared to facilitate an arrangement for Epstein and an underage girl while he was a UK government minister.

At the time of the 2009 exchange, Mandelson had returned to government, serving in a senior Labour role from 2008 to 2010. After leaving office, he built a lucrative global consulting career before re-entering public life, when Prime Minister Keir Starmer appointed him ambassador to the United States in 2024.

His relationship with Epstein, who died in prison in 2019 while awaiting trial on sex-trafficking charges, has since become a problem that will not go away for the UK government, and has even led to calls for Starmer to resign.

The release of some Epstein files by the US Department of Justice in September 2025 led to Mandelson stepping down as US ambassador. A second tranche, published on January 30, alleged that he had passed sensitive government information to Epstein on several occasions, according to the files. The claims prompted the British government to refer the matter to police for possible prosecution. Mandelson was briefly arrested in February before being released on bail, while investigations into allegations against him continue.

The political fallout, meanwhile, has since widened, forcing the resignation of two senior government aides. In an attempt to contain the crisis, the prime minister said all documents relating to Mandelson’s appointment would be made public, a move that has instead intensified scrutiny.

The initial release of what have become known as the “Mandelson files” showed that, ahead of his appointment to Washington, UK officials had explicitly warned that his long-standing ties to Epstein posed a “reputational risk” to the country.

Government documents indicate that during the vetting process in late 2024, Mandelson repeatedly denied key aspects of his relationship with Epstein, including whether he had stayed with the sex offender after his 2008 conviction. However, internal correspondence shows officials were aware of the relationship, discussed it as part of due diligence, and raised concerns with the prime minister’s chief of staff. The appointment nonetheless went ahead.

Starmer has since apologised for the decision. Further WhatsApp messages are expected to be released in the coming days, and could prompt fresh calls for Starmer’s resignation, raising questions about how much more damage the UK government can sustain.

‘Like the bad boy you are’

One of Mandelson’s first recorded interactions from the files is with Ghislaine Maxwell.

As far back as June 2002, the emails show him already in direct contact with her, stepping into a world that blurred intimacy and power.

“I love disgusting. That’s why I am wild and dangerous…” Mandelson wrote to Maxwell.

In the same exchange, the tone shifted to potential political and business advisory work in the United States, invoking contacts linked to former US Senator George Mitchell.

In the same exchange, Mandelson appears to have gate-crashed a lunch with Epstein, prompting a rebuke relayed through Maxwell: “You spoiled Jeffrey’s lunch. Pete, I have warned you about that before. Behave or you will be punished like the bad boy you are.”

At the time, Mandelson was in exile from political life. It was 2002, and he had already been forced to resign twice from government — first, after taking a loan of 373,000 pounds ($496,700) from fellow minister Geoffrey Robinson to help purchase a house, then after being accused of intervening in a passport application for the businessman Srichand Hinduja.

It was in this vacuum of political hiatus that Mandelson would cultivate his business and personal connections with Epstein.

These early messages set the pattern for what followed: Long, meandering exchanges between Mandelson and Epstein in which sexual innuendo sits alongside business.

By 2003, messages from Mandelson to Epstein were being preserved in a 50th birthday book compiled for Epstein. Several pages show photographs of the two men together, accompanied by handwritten notes in which Mandelson refers to Epstein as his “best pal”.

The book itself was gifted in 2003, but it remained out of public view until its release two decades later, in September last year.

Financial links also surface from this release of files. Bank statements from 2003 and June 2004 appear to show Epstein making several payments, worth $25,000 each, to accounts associated with Mandelson, as reported by the Financial Times.

Other emails also suggest Mandelson desired a life that domestic politics could not afford. Epstein offered Mandelson access to the seemingly limitless excess of the ultra-wealthy. “When are you going to the island at Xmas? I am having trouble getting air tickets to St Barts and was wondering about going via US, NY or Miami,” asked Mandelson in one exchange in 2005.

Epstein’s reply was characteristically transactional. “I can pay for your tickets if needed.” Whether the offer was accepted remains unclear. Another message from Maxwell to Epstein read: “Asked Mandelson how he is getting to the island – he sd I hope JE is sending the chopper…so I take it you want me to give him a ride on the plane”.

The messages suggest that Mandelson was impressed by the allure of Epstein’s island in the Caribbean – and his mansion in New York that he frequented repeatedly, according to the correspondence released by the Justice Department. Pictures that have since shown Mandelson in a dressing gown laughing with Epstein alongside Mountbatten-Windsor, who was then Prince Andrew — he was stripped of his royal titles in late 2025 because of the revelations of his close relationship with Epstein.

Another released photo shows Mandelson in his underwear speaking with an unidentified woman at what was reportedly Epstein’s residence.

In another email in 2002, Mandelson told Maxwell of a cancelled meeting in Paris and then asked her if he could “stay on for a few days to have complete peace”. It is unclear why he was seeking her permission to stay in Paris — and whether Maxwell and Epstein were covering his costs in the French capital.

Then, in 2008, Epstein was arrested on suspicion of soliciting a minor for prostitution. While many of his former contacts have said that they cut off ties with him around this time, the files reveal that Mandelson positioned himself as a kind of informal counsellor, coaching Epstein through the mounting allegations.

“You are fighting back so you need strategy,” he wrote. He pressed repeatedly for updates, for “developments”, and asked whether everything was being handled.

“Hope you are strategising,” he added, in another message.

Upon finding out about the conviction, Mandelson wrote: “I think the world of you and I feel hopeless and furious about what has happened … Your friends stay with you and love you.”

‘Special unpaid adviser’

Following Epstein’s conviction, the two did not cut off contact. The files suggest that Mandelson and Epstein were in more regular communication even as the financier was serving a prison sentence for soliciting prostitution with an underage girl.

This rate of emails again intensified in June 2009, when Mandelson was appointed first secretary of state, effectively the second most powerful figure in Gordon Brown’s government. Epstein appeared to take pride in the promotion. In one message, Epstein circulated a Guardian article about Mandelson’s new role to Maxwell and alleged sex trafficker and model scout Jean-Luc Brunel. In another email, he congratulated Epstein for his “comeback” and said his appointment made him “proud”. In another, he broadcast the news to his network of powerful associates, including senior figures at JPMorgan such as Jes Staley, writing to him: “For all intents and purposes Peter Mandelson is now deputy prime minister”.

At times, Epstein seemed to act as an intermediary between Mandelson and Staley – who, according to multiple documents in the Epstein files, is alleged to have sexually assaulted a woman, a claim he denies.

The files suggest Epstein passed messages between Mandelson and senior JPMorgan figures, facilitating introductions and discussions around financial and policy matters. Staley, for instance, asked Epstein to arrange meetings with Mandelson, which appeared to take place in December 2009, February 2010, and a call set up by Epstein in March 2010 – and another call with either Mandelson or then-Chancellor Alistair Darling in January 2010.

The tone of the correspondence oscillated between admiration and calculation. In one exchange, Epstein described Mandelson as “devious” after he lobbied a bank to underwrite a mining project backed by their mutual associate Nat Rothschild, as reported by the Guardian.

Epstein also began offering advice. He suggested Mandelson could leverage his new position, “in charge of all universities”, to establish a prize in “cyberwar artificial general intelligence”, an area in which Epstein himself held business interests. Mandelson’s reply was telling: “You can become my special unpaid adviser.”

Other messages reportedly suggest Mandelson may have tipped Epstein off about sensitive political developments, including Brown’s impending resignation in 2010 and a 500-billion-euro ($580bn) European Union bailout designed to stabilise the Greek debt crisis.

In a separate exchange, days after his appointment as first secretary of state, Mandelson forwarded Epstein a private email sent to Brown containing sensitive market information, including discussions of potential government asset sales, tax policy, and business expectations that the Conservatives would win the next election.

The forwarded “interesting note” was from Nick Butler, a special adviser, outlining “business issues” for the prime minister. Epstein, still in prison at the time, responded with policy advice of his own. The government, he wrote, should consider not only physical assets but “INTELLECTUAL assets, that are not being exploited”, effectively advising a sitting cabinet minister on economic strategy.

‘You are the only person that knows everything about me’

The weekend after this correspondence, Mandelson appeared to have stayed at Epstein’s residence. At the same time, the two continued a close personal relationship. In one exchange, Mandelson told Epstein: “Had a long dream about you last night.”

In another exchange, Epstein appeared to act as a confidant. Mandelson, writing from the Lords frontbench while seemingly engaged in parliamentary business, asked whether Epstein had spoken to a contact.

The correspondence then turned to a figure named Simone. “I am worried about Simone who is totally despairing,” Mandelson wrote. “I am not sure what else to do. Any ideas?”

Epstein advised him to travel to New York: “Yes, you should go to New York for a weekend… I have been consistent on this. Do not lose the opportunity. Coming across people you really enjoy is rare – don’t be lazy, get on a plane.”

“You are the only person who knows everything about me,” Mandelson later responded.

Weeks later, however, Epstein appeared to change his position. He wrote: “I’m rethinking the Simone issue with your new profile. I’m afraid it’s asking for serious trouble. It won’t be kept quiet. Rinalado will go ballistic. Fraught with danger.”

Financial links emerge again shortly after. It is widely reported that in September 2009, Mandelson’s husband, Reinaldo Avila da Silva, emailed Epstein requesting financial help to cover the costs of an osteopathy course, including fees, equipment and a laptop. Epstein agreed: “I will wire your loan amount immediately.”

A payment of 10,000 pounds ($13,310) followed. When da Silva sought clarification on whether the amount covered his school fees, Epstein confirmed it did. Mandelson, in turn, emailed Epstein with a note of caution: “Remind him that to avoid a gift-tax filing, it must be a loan.”

Days later, da Silva confirmed receipt of the funds: “Thank you for the money which arrived in my account this morning.”

The contact between Mandelson and Epstein did not end there. According to the files, the two remained in communication until 2016, while the UK government’s own due diligence report says the relationship continued until 2019.

In one of their final exchanges, Mandelson’s fascination with power appeared to endure. “By the way, as political practitioner, Donald is phenomenal,” he wrote, referring to US President Donald Trump. “The craft and tenacity are amazing.”

WASHINGTON — U.S. companies will be allowed to do business with Venezuela’s state-owned oil and gas company after the Treasury Department eased sanctions, with some limitations, on Wednesday as the Trump administration looks for ways to boost world oil supplies during the Iran war.

The Treasury issued a broad authorization allowing Petróleos de Venezuela S.A, or PDVSA, to directly sell Venezuelan oil to U.S. companies and on global markets, a massive shift after Washington for years had largely blocked dealings with Venezuela’s government and its oil sector.

Separately, the White House said President Trump would waive, for 60 days, Jones Act requirements for goods shipped between U.S. ports to be moved on U.S.-flagged vessels. The 1920s law, designed to protect the American shipbuilding sector, is often blamed for making gas more expensive.

The moves highlight the increased pressure that the Republican administration is under to ease soaring oil prices as the United States, along with Israel, wages a war with Iran without a foreseeable end date. Global oil prices have since spiked as Iran halted traffic through the narrow Strait of Hormuz, where one-fifth of the world’s oil typically passes through from the Persian Gulf to customers worldwide.

The Treasury’s license is designed to incentivize new investment in Venezuela’s energy sector and is intended to benefit both the U.S and Venezuela, while increasing the global oil supply, a Treasury official told the Associated Press. The official was not authorized to discuss the matter publicly and spoke on condition of anonymity.

Since the ouster and arrest of Nicolás Maduro as Venezuela’s president during a U.S. military operation in January, Trump has said the U.S. would effectively “run” Venezuela and sell its oil.

The U.S. license provides targeted relief from sanctions, but does not lift the penalties altogether. The license allows companies that existed before Jan. 29, 2025, to buy Venezuelan oil and engage in transactions that would normally be banned under American sanctions, reopening trade for a major oil producer to global markets.

There are some limits.

Payments cannot go directly to sanctioned Venezuelan entities such as PDVSA, but must be sent instead to a special U.S.-controlled account. In other words, the U.S. will allow the oil trade but will control the cash flow.

Additionally, deals involving Russia, Iran, North Korea, Cuba and some Chinese entities will not be allowed. Transactions involving Venezuelan debt or bonds will not be allowed.

The license is expected to give a massive boost to Venezuela’s oil-dependent economy and help encourage companies that have been apprehensive to invest. The decision is part of the Trump administration’s phased-in plan to turn around Venezuela. But critics of the acting Venezuelan government argue that the move rewards Venezuela’s leadership — all loyal to Maduro and the ruling party — while repression, corruption and human rights abuses continue.

Many public sector workers survive on roughly $160 per month, while the average private sector employee earned about $237 last year, when the annual inflation rate soared to 475%, according to Venezuela’s central bank, and sent the cost of food beyond what many can afford.

Venezuela sits atop the world’s largest oil reserves and used them to power what was once Latin America’s strongest economy. But corruption, mismanagement and U.S. economic sanctions saw production steadily decline from the 3.5 million barrels per day pumped in 1999, when Maduro’s mentor, Hugo Chávez, took power, to less than 400,000 barrels per day in 2020.

A year earlier, the Treasury Department under the first Trump administration locked Venezuela out of world oil markets when it sanctioned PDVSA as part of a policy punishing Maduro’s government for corrupt, anti-democratic and criminal activities. That forced the government to sell its remaining oil output at a discount — about 40% below market prices — to buyers such as China and in other Asian markets. Venezuela even started accepting payments in Russian rubles, bartered goods or cryptocurrency.

The new license does not allow payments in gold or cryptocurrency, including the petro, which was a crypto token issued by the Venezuelan government in 2018.

Meantime, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said the Jones Act waiver would help “mitigate the short-term disruptions to the oil market” during the Iran war and would “allow vital resources like oil, natural gas, fertilizer, and coal to flow freely to U.S. ports.”

Hussein and Cano write for the Associated Press. Cano reported from Caracas, Venezuela. AP writer Seung Min Kim contributed to this report.

Voters in the Republic of Congo will choose their next president on Sunday, although longtime leader Dennis Sassou Nguesso is likely to be elected unchallenged, analysts say.

The central African nation, which has been led almost continuously by Nguesso for more than 40 years, is one of the most politically repressive in the world, with Freedom House giving it a 17 out of 100 rating for freedom.

The country is Africa’s third-largest oil exporter. It sells between 236,000 and 252,000 barrels per day, alongside copper and diamonds.

Congo is also highly biodiverse. Sprawling expanses of tropical rainforest in the country form part of the Congo Basin – the second-largest rainforest network in the world after the Amazon. The Nouabale-Ndoki National Park in the north is a UNESCO World Heritage site and is home to elephants, endangered lowland gorillas, and chimpanzees.

Still, the country of 6 million people is racked by economic woes. Corruption and mismanagement, analysts say, contribute to Congo being 171st of 193 countries on the United Nations Human Development Index.

A fractured political opposition, meanwhile, has only allowed Nguesso’s governing Congolese Labour Party (PCT) to consolidate power over the years, although a newcomer is raising hopes.

Here’s what we know about Sunday’s polls:

When do polls open?

Polls will open on Saturday, March 15, between 6am (05:00 GMT) and 6pm (05:00 GMT). More than 2.6 million people are eligible to vote; that is, they are more than 18 years old and have been registered.

Voter turnout in 2021 — during the last election — was 67.70 percent according to the International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES). Authorities have announced that borders will be closed during voting.

Candidates with an absolute majority usually win the elections, or in rare cases, a run-off will be called between the two top polling candidates.

Presidential terms in Congo are for five years. While the constitution had previously allowed a maximum of two terms and an age limit of 70, those were removed in 2015.

Who’s running?

Dennis Sassou Nguesso: The 82-year-old was first elected to office in 1979 and led the country for 12 years under a one-party state. He lost elections after opposition lawmakers voted to introduce a multiparty system. On his second attempt in 1997, he seized power in a bloody civil war and has remained in office since. He is Africa’s third-longest serving ruler.

Nguesso’s legacy has been one of gross underdevelopment and corruption, said Andrea Ngombet, the exiled founder of Sassoufit, a group advocating for Nguesso’s exit. In 2015, Nguesso pushed through a controversial referendum that reset presidential term limits from two to three. It also completely removed age restrictions, allowing him to run for the fifth consecutive time in 2021.

A strong hold on the country’s judiciary and the Independent National Electoral Body (CENI) has helped secure Nguesso’s hold, analysts say. His strategic international alliances, from Beijing to Moscow to Paris, have ensured foreign investments and boosted his influence, according to Ngombet. However, since 2013, France has launched investigations into his family’s numerous assets in Europe and the US under pressure from civil society. French authorities seized property belonging to his son, Denis-Christel Sassou Nguesso, in 2022.

Melaine Deston Gavet Elengo: At only 35, Elengo’s candidacy has caused ripples. The oil sector engineer leads the Republican Movement and is the youngest contender in the race. Although a first-time presidential candidate, Elengo appears to be pulling an unusual amount of interest as he presents himself as a departure from the old system. His campaign has emphasised a government built on transparency, an independent justice system, and inclusive development.

“He could secure at least 20 percent of the vote, signalling a generational shift,” Ngombet said.

“His unique advantage lies in the unspoken support from UPADS dissidents frustrated with the boycott,” he added, referring to the opposition party, Pan-African Union for Social Democracy (UPADS), which boycotted the March 21, 2021, presidential election over concerns of integrity. UPADS is doing the same this year but has called on its supporters to go out and vote according to their “conscience”.

Elengo is also closely allied with political heavyweights like the opposition Union of Humanist Democrats, founded by the popular opposition figure, late Guy-Brice Parfait Kolelas, who came second in 2016.

Joseph Kignoumbi Kia Mboungou, 73: The veteran lawmaker is the leader of the political party The Chain and represents the southwestern Lekoumou department. He has run several times in the past without much success, with his 2021 bid resulting in just 0.62 percent of the vote. Mboungou’s campaign promised political change and an economy that diversifies from oil, while reducing poverty.

Uphrem Dave Mafoula, 43: The economist is leader of the New Start party. He is making his second bid for the top post after running as the youngest candidate in 2021 and securing just 0.52 percent of the vote. Mafoula’s goal, he says, is to implement governance reforms, create jobs, and reduce inequalities.

Vivien Romain Manangou, 43: The independent first-timer is a university lecturer campaigning on institutional reforms, improving public finances, and promoting national unity.

Mabio Mavoungou Zinga, 69: Running under the opposition coalition Alliance party, the retired customs inspector and former member of parliament promises to tackle corruption and free jailed opposition leaders. It’s his first bid.

Anguios Nganguia Engambe, about 60: The president of the Party for Action of the Republic is running for his fourth time as presidential candidate. In 2021, he won only 0.18 percent of the vote. This time, he has pledged to bridge political divisions in the country and foster better political participation.

Which opposition leaders have been targeted?

Several opposition leaders are either jailed or have fled into exile. Some are:

Jean-Marie ⁠Michel Mokoko,78: A former chief of the army and an adviser to Nguesso, who turned against the president and ran for elections in 2016. He called for protests after the results showed that he won 13.74 percent and placed third. He was arrested afterwards on charges of undermining state security and was in 2018 sentenced to 20 years in prison.

Andre Okombi Salissa: a one-time leading member of the governing Congolese Labour Party, and a former minister, Salissa also switched to the opposition in 2016 to contest the polls. He was arrested shortly after, also on security charges. In 2019, he was sentenced to 20 years of hard labour.

What are the key issues?

Poverty despite oil riches

Analysts have long warned that a lack of economic diversification hurts the country’s prospects. As Africa’s third-largest oil producer, Congo earns more than 80 percent of its export revenue from oil, according to the World Bank,  making the economy vulnerable to shocks.

Government investment in hydrocarbons has only intensified in recent years. In 2015, authorities aimed to boost daily output to 500,000 barrels of oil per day within three years. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) production and export also began in 2024.

Despite this, around half the population lives below the poverty line. Most live in the main cities of Brazzaville and Pointe-Noire where access to electricity and roads is available but dismal. The situation is even worse in rural areas, analysts say.

While the population is young, with nearly half under 18, job creation is weak. Many young people with degrees have to turn to menial work for survival. The unemployment rate hovers at approximately 40 percent, with inadequate electricity being one of the major barriers for business, according to the World Bank.

Forests and agriculture

Before it began extracting oil in the 1970s, agricultural produce and timber were the biggest revenue generators in Congo.

However, Congo has become reliant on food imports amid the shift to oil.

Although the country has up to 10 million hectares (24 milllion acres) of arable land, only a small percentage is being cultivated, and that’s mostly for low-yield subsistence farming.

The government has touted plans to boost cassava, maize, sorghum, and soy farming, along with developing fisheries and poultry.

Meanwhile, deforestation in the Congo Basin, which encompasses parts of Congo and five neighbouring countries, nearly doubled between 2010 and 2020, compared to the previous decade.

Political freedom and post-Nguesso race

Protests are rare in the country as authorities don’t provide permits and respond with violence when demonstrators gather, according to the Africa Center for Strategic Studies.

Opposition members are routinely jailed. Nguesso appoints national judges himself, meaning the judiciary is not independent.

Many Congolese expect Nguesso to win Sunday’s elections, so much attention is now on who will likely take over leadership in the country in the coming years.

Analysts say an intense succession race is already brewing behind the scenes.

Denis-Christel Nguesso, the president’s son and minister of international cooperation, is the clear favourite, but he faces challenges from the president’s nephew and Head of National Security Jean-Dominique Okemba.

The Nguessos’ cousin, Jean-Jacques Bouya, who is currently the minister of planning and works, is another contender.