cools

UK jobs market cools as vacancies fall

Tom Espiner

Business reporter

Getty Images A young woman wearing a black T-shirt stands behind a counter of cakes in a cafe, cutting a large slice of cakeGetty Images

The UK jobs market has continued to cool as vacancies fell and the number of people on payrolls dropped, the latest official figures suggest.

Job openings fell by 5.8% to 718,000 between May to July across nearly all industries, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

It said there was evidence that some firms may not be recruiting new workers or replacing people who have left.

However, the slowdown was not as sharp as some economists had anticipated.

Average wage growth remained at 5%, the unemployment rate was unmoved at 4.7% and an estimated drop in people on payrolls – down 8,000 between June and July – signalled a “very gradual cooling”, according to former Bank of England policymaker Andrew Sentence.

He pointed out that there are more than 30 million people on employer payrolls in the UK.

Ashley Webb, UK economist for Capital Economics, said the “modest fall” in payroll data “suggests that the fallout in the jobs market from the rise in business taxes and the minimum wage” is calming down.

In April, the National Living Wage rose from £11.44 to £12.21.

At the same time, National Insurance Contribution by employers rose from 13.5% to 15% while the salary threshold triggering payment by firm was lowered from £9,100 a year to £5,000.

UK job vacancies chart showing that openings have been falling for the past three years

Job vacancies were at their lowest level since the three months to April 2021, when the UK was dealing with the effects of the Covid pandemic.

Outside the pandemic, the last time that vacancies were lower was in the three months to January 2015.

However, although the number of job openings fell, it did not feed through to a rise in the unemployment rate, Mr Webb said.

He added that firms giving notice of redundancies was “relatively subdued” in July.

Monica George Michail, associate economist at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, said the fall in jobs vacancies would be likely to contribute to slowing wage growth.

This is one the economic indicators the Bank of England looks at when making decisions on altering interest rates as it can fuel or cool the rate of inflation.

The Bank’s inflation target is 2% but the pace of price rises have grown in recent months, due to higher food and energy costs.

Ms Michail predicted that the Bank would cut interest rates one more time this year, forecasting that borrowing costs will fall from 4% to 3.75% in November.

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US senator plans trip to Taiwan as Trump’s interest in island cools: Report | Politics News

Media reports say US Senator Roger Wicker may visit Taiwan after President William Lai Ching-te cancelled a trip to Latin America.

Taipei, Taiwan – A senior United States Republican legislator is reportedly planning a trip to Taiwan, according to media reports, where fears have been growing that US President Donald Trump is losing interest in relations with the democratic, self-ruled island in favour of building ties with China.

The Financial Times reported on Thursday that US Senator Roger Wicker from Mississippi is planning to visit Taiwan in August, citing three people familiar with the matter.

Wicker is the Republican chair of the powerful Senate Armed Services Committee and “one of Taiwan’s biggest allies in Congress”, according to the report.

Wicker’s office and the American Institute in Taiwan – Washington’s de facto embassy in Taipei – did not immediately reply to Al Jazeera’s request for comment on the reported trip.

US legislators regularly visit Taiwan, an unofficial ally of Washington, but Wicker’s trip comes at a time of uncertainty for US-Taiwan relations.

Taiwanese President William Lai Ching-te was reportedly planning to stop in the US next month en route to visiting allies in Latin America, but he cancelled his travel plans after Trump nixed a layover in New York, the Financial Times also reported, citing people familiar with the matter.

Lai’s office never officially announced the trip, but on Monday, his office said the president had no plans to travel overseas as he focused on typhoon cleanup in southern Taiwan and tariff negotiations with the US.

The timing of President Lai’s cancelled visit was noted in Taiwan, as it was followed by a separate announcement from Trump that he hoped to visit China at the invitation of President Xi Jinping as Beijing and Washington hammer out a tariff deal.

Xi, who also heads the Chinese Communist Party, has pledged to annex Taiwan by peace or by force and considers Lai and his Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) to be “separatists”.

Beijing objects to visits by Taiwanese leaders to the US, even if they are carried out on an unofficial basis.

 

Experts say it is possible that Wicker’s trip was planned months ago, but the visit could still be used by US legislators to assuage fears that the White House is losing interest in Taiwan.

“I’m sure many will hope for words of affirmation and commitment to the US-Taiwan relationship, which before would be par for the course, but today will feel extra needed to assure both the DPP and Taiwanese citizens who have a declining view of the United States,” said Lev Nachman, a political scientist at National Taiwan University in Taipei.

Although the US is Taiwan’s security guarantor and has pledged to provide Taipei with the means to defend itself, there are deep currents of scepticism towards the US – known as yimeilun – running through Taiwanese society.

That has grown more prominent since Trump took office last year and said that Taiwan should pay for its own defence, later threatening to slap a 32 percent tariff on Taiwanese exports.

A survey in April of 1,500 Taiwanese voters by Nachman and others found that just 23.1 percent viewed the US as either a “trustworthy or very trustworthy” partner, down from 33.6 percent in June 2024 when US President Joe Biden was still in office.

Liza Tobin, managing director at the geopolitical advisory group Garnaut Global, said the pendulum could swing the other way if Beijing tries to block the trip.

Trump has granted Beijing a number of concessions already, from access to Nvidia’s H20 chip to the terms of sale for the Panama Canal, she said, and a trip by a senior legislator could join the list.

“Unilateral concessions are like catnip for Beijing to push for more concessions, and with the president angling for a trade deal with China and a visit with Xi, China may try to pressure the admin to in turn put pressure on Wicker to cancel the trip,” she said. “Let’s hope he doesn’t give in.”

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