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October is a busy month for the stock market, because it’s when companies start reporting their operating results for the quarter ended Sept. 30. As has been the case for the last few years, Wall Street will be laser-focused on the tech giants powering the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution, because they typically deliver the fastest revenue and earnings growth.

Meta Platforms (META -0.37%) is one of those companies. It’s scheduled to release its third-quarter results on Oct. 29, and management’s guidance points to a further acceleration in its revenue growth, thanks largely to AI. The upcoming report could be a very positive catalyst for Meta stock, so here’s why investors might want to pay attention.

Image source: Getty Images.

Look for accelerating revenue growth

More than 3.4 billion people use at least one of Meta’s social media apps every single day, which include Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp. Considering that is nearly half the population of the entire planet, finding new users is getting harder and harder, which is why the company is focused on boosting engagement instead.

Simply put, the longer each user spends on Meta’s apps, the more ads they see, and the more money the company makes. AI is a huge part of that strategy; Meta uses the technology in its algorithms to learn what content each user likes to see, so it can show them more of it. During the second quarter of 2025 (ended June 30), this drove a 6% increase in the amount of time users spent on Instagram compared to the year-ago period, and a 5% increase for Facebook.

Meta adopted a similar strategy for its ad-recommendation engine to target users more accurately on behalf of businesses. During Q2, this led to a 5% increase in conversions on Instagram, and a 3% increase on Facebook. This typically means Meta can charge more money per ad because businesses are yielding a higher return on their marketing spend.

The social media giant generated $47.5 billion in total revenue during the quarter, which was a 22% increase from the year-ago period. That marked an acceleration from the first quarter when revenue jumped by 16%. Management’s guidance suggests the company delivered as much as $50.5 billion in revenue during the third quarter, which would represent even faster growth of 24%.

That would be a very bullish result for Meta stock on Oct. 29.

Here’s an even more important number to watch

Meta’s AI strategy also involves developing new features, like its Meta AI chatbot which can answer complex questions, generate images, or even join your group chat to settle debates. It only launched in late 2023, yet it already has almost a billion monthly active users.

Meta AI is powered by Meta’s Llama family of large language models, which are improving so rapidly that they already rival some of the best models from leading start-ups like OpenAI and Anthropic, even though those companies had a multiyear head start on development. But in order for the Llama models to continue improving, Meta has to invest heavily in data center infrastructure and chips to unlock the necessary computing power.

The company came into 2025 expecting to allocate somewhere between $60 billion and $65 billion to capital expenditures (capex) for the year, but it has since revised those numbers to $66 billion and $72 billion. Meta would only spend that kind of money on AI infrastructure if it expected a positive financial return, and the signs are already there considering the company’s growing engagement, higher ad conversions, and accelerating revenue growth.

A further upward revision to Meta’s 2025 capex forecast on Oct. 29 would probably be bullish for its stock, because it might be a signal that management expects an even bigger payoff than originally anticipated.

Meta’s stock looks like a bargain heading into Oct. 29

Meta shares are trading at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 25.7 as I write this, making it the cheapest stock in the “Magnificent Seven,” which is the group of tech titans driving the AI revolution forward.

PE Ratio data by YCharts

Personally, I think Meta deserves a much higher valuation considering it grew its earnings per share by a whopping 38% in the second quarter, outpacing the earnings growth of every other Magnificent Seven company except Nvidia.

Typically, investors will pay a premium for a company that is growing quickly, so there might be some upside on the table for Meta stock through multiple expansion alone. If the company’s third-quarter results match or exceed the high end of management’s guidance on Oct. 29, that could be the spark that ignites a powerful rally for the stock into the end of the year.

Shares of Circle Internet Group (CRCL -8.71%) took a 28.1% hit in August 2025, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence. The group behind the USDC (USDC -0.00%) stablecoin posted its first earnings report as a public company in the middle of the month, and it wasn’t strong enough to support Circle’s early price jump.

Circle’s earnings landed with a thud

From the initial public offering (IPO) on June 4 to the end of July, Circle’s stock had gained a hair-raising 492%. Investors were watching the first earnings report closely, looking for signs that Circle’s business could sustain a $42.0 billion market cap.

But that bullish outcome wasn’t in the cards. Sure, the results were impressive, given that Circle’s core business is based on an asset that will always be worth $1 per coin. Revenue rose 53% year over year to $658 million as the active circulation of USDC nearly doubled to $61.3 billion. But Circle still posted a net loss of $482 million in the second quarter, largely due to costs associated with the IPO. The price spike itself was the root cause of these charges, as the skyrocketing stock price changed the value of Circle’s convertible debt and stock-based compensation policies.

Image source: Getty Images.

The boring banking secret behind Circle’s exciting revenue

It may sound strange that Circle generated a $658 million revenue stream in the second quarter, even though the USDC stablecoin neither gained nor lost any value. But the company operates much like a classic bank — it earns interest on the dollar-based funds that provide direct backing for the stablecoin. These interest payments accounted for 96.4% of Circle’s total revenue in the second quarter.

As for the stock’s price drop, it should be noted that the slide started well before Circle’s earnings report. As of Sept. 2, Circle’s share price is down 54.4% from the absolute peak on June 23. The big surge followed by a steep price drop is pretty common for big-name IPOs, and Circle was one of the most anticipated market launches in recent memory.

Only CoreWeave (CRWV -9.41%) and Figma (FIG -6.70%) have seen splashier IPOs in 2025, and they have indeed followed similar charting patterns. Figma’s stock is down 46.2% from a soaring peak just after its IPO in July, while CoreWeave took a couple of months to build a 359% gain and then lose nearly half of it.

I rarely jump on IPO launches, because early investors tend to get burned rather quickly. Circle provided yet another example of a well-worn charting drama. And I’m not entirely convinced that Circle’s cool-off period has ended yet. You should probably avoid this red-hot financial technology stock until it stabilizes at a more plausible valuation.

Islamabad, Pakistan – In his first address to a joint session of Congress on March 4 this year, after becoming United States president for a second time, Donald Trump made a striking revelation.

He referred to the deadly Abbey Gate bombing at Kabul airport in August 2021 – which occurred as thousands of Afghans tried to flee following the Taliban takeover – and said the alleged perpetrator had been apprehended.

The country he credited with the arrest: Pakistan. “I want to thank especially the government of Pakistan for helping arrest this monster,” Trump declared.

A little more than three months later, Trump hosted Pakistan’s army chief Asim Munir for lunch at the White House on Wednesday — the first time a US president has hosted a military chief from Pakistan who isn’t also the country’s head of state. Munir is on a five-day trip to the US.

For a country that Trump had, just seven years earlier, accused of giving the US “nothing but lies and deceit” and safe havens to terrorists – and one that his immediate predecessor Joe Biden called “one of the most dangerous nations” – this marks a dramatic shift.

It’s a reset that experts say has been in the making for weeks, under Trump’s second administration, and that was solidified by the brief but intense military confrontation between India and Pakistan in May, during which the US tried to mediate a ceasefire.

Some analysts warn that the evolving relationship should be viewed as a product of Trump’s personal position, rather than institutional policy.

“We are dealing with an administration which changes its tune by the hour. There is no process here,” Marvin Weinbaum, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute (MEI), told Al Jazeera.

“One minute the US has no interest, and the next minute priorities change rapidly. You’re dealing with an administration that is mercurial and personalised, and you don’t associate that with traditional US foreign policy,” he added.

However, others point out that even the optics of Trump hosting Munir are significant.

“Trump’s lunch invite to Pakistan’s army chief isn’t just protocol-breaking, it’s protocol-redefining,” said Raza Ahmad Rumi, a distinguished lecturer at the City University of New York (CUNY). “It signals, quite visibly, that Pakistan is not just on Washington’s radar, it’s in the inner circle, at least for now.”

Reset amid regional crises

The meeting between Trump and Munir came amid heightened tensions in the Middle East, where Israel has been conducting strikes inside Iranian cities since June 13. Iran has retaliated with missile attacks of its own on Israel.

The Israeli offensive – targeting Iranian generals, missile bases, nuclear facilities and scientists – has killed more than 200 people. Iran’s missile and drone attacks on Israel over the past six days have killed about 20 people.

The Benjamin Netanyahu-led Israeli government has been urging the US to join the offensive against Iran, which shares a 900-kilometre-long (559-mile) border with Pakistan.

Speaking to the media in the Oval Office after the lunch with Munir on Wednesday, Trump noted that the Pakistanis “know Iran very well, better than most,” but added that they are “not happy”.

According to Trump, however, the main reason for meeting Munir was to thank him for his role in defusing the May conflict between Pakistan and India, a confrontation that brought the region, home to more than 1.6 billion people, to the brink of nuclear war.

“The reason I had him here was that I wanted to thank him for not going into the war [with India]. And I want to thank PM [Narendra] Modi as well, who just left a few days ago. We’re working on a trade deal with India and Pakistan,” said Trump, who is known to enjoy a warm relationship with Indian leader Modi.

“These two very smart people decided not to keep going with a war that could have been a nuclear war. Pakistan and India are two big nuclear powers. I was honoured to meet him today,” he added, referring to Munir.

The crisis had begun after an April attack in Indian-administered Kashmir that killed 26 Indian civilians. India blamed Pakistan, which denied the charge and called for a “credible, independent, transparent” investigation.

On May 7, India launched strikes inside Pakistani and Pakistan-administered Kashmir territories. Pakistan responded via its air force, claiming to have downed at least six Indian jets. India confirmed losses but did not specify numbers.

The conflict escalated as both sides exchanged drones for three days and eventually launched missiles at military targets on May 10. It ended only after intense backchannel diplomacy, particularly involving the US, led to a ceasefire.

Trump reiterated his role on Wednesday. “I stopped the war between Pakistan and India. This man [Munir] was extremely influential in stopping it from the Pakistan side, Modi from the India side, and others,” he said.

While Pakistan has acknowledged the US role, India insists the ceasefire resulted solely from bilateral dialogue. Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri stated on Tuesday that Indian PM Modi had spoken to Trump by phone to underscore New Delhi’s view that there was no US-led mediation between India and Pakistan.

Arif Ansar, chief strategist at Washington-based advisory firm PoliTact, said Pakistan’s military performance during the confrontation prompted Trump’s engagement.

“It demonstrated that despite its political and economic challenges, the country can outmanoeuvre a much bigger adversary,” Ansar told Al Jazeera. “This has led President Trump to engage with Pakistan’s traditional power centres based on core strategic interests.”

“Opportunity to reassert relevance”

That engagement has a long history.

Pakistan’s relationship with the US dates back to its 1947 independence, after which it aligned with Washington during the Cold War. After the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, Pakistan supported US objectives there, and the two collaborated closely to support the mujahideen that eventually forced Moscow to pull out its troops.

Subsequently, Pakistan also backed the post-9/11 US “war on terror”.

However, over the years, many within the US strategic community also started questioning Pakistan’s credibility as a reliable security partner, especially after 9/11 architect Osama bin Laden was found in Abbottabad, close to Rawalpindi, home to Pakistan’s military headquarters in 2011.

Since the Taliban’s return to power in August 2021, the strategic partnership has waned further. Pakistan has increasingly turned towards China for economic, military and technological support.

But Weinbaum said that since Trump returned to office, Pakistan has been getting respect that was lacking under the previous Biden administration.

Trump wanted “counterterrorism assistance,” Weinbaum said – and seemingly got it.

On June 10, General Michael E Kurilla, chief of the US Central Command (CENTCOM), detailed how that cooperation led to the capture of the suspected Abbey Gate bomber.

“They [Pakistan] are in an active counterterrorism fight right now, and they have been a phenomenal partner in the counterterrorism world,” Kurilla said, in a testimony before the House Armed Services Committee in Washington, DC.

According to Kurilla, who also oversees the US military’s Middle East operations including Iran, this progress, including the arrest of the Abbey Gate bombing suspect, was made possible due to direct coordination with Pakistan’s army chief. “Field Marshal Asim Munir called me to tell me they had captured one of the Daesh-K [ISKP or ISIS-K] individuals,” he said.

As the icing on the cake for the bilateral relationship, Weinbaum suggested, Pakistan has thrown in “more goodies, such as a trade deal with no tariffs, offering rare earth minerals, and crypto“. Weinbaum previously served as an analyst for Pakistan and Afghanistan in the US State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research.

Rare earth minerals, critical for industries like defence, robotics and electronics, are among Pakistan’s assets now being offered to foreign investors, including the US and Saudi Arabia.

Pakistan has also recently formed a crypto council and held talks with US officials to attract investment and partnerships.

Rumi called the Munir-Trump meeting “historic”.

“The US wants Pakistan’s help in de-risking regional volatility without offering much in return. For Munir, it’s an opportunity to reassert relevance and perhaps negotiate manoeuvring space at home,” he said.

Transactional ties and democratic costs

Historically, Pakistan’s ties with the US have been largely transactional, particularly in the security sphere. US aid and investment often followed Pakistan’s alignment with US strategic goals, helping build its infrastructure and military.

But the relationship has also been marked by distrust, with US administrations accusing Pakistan of double-dealing, while Pakistan claims the US has failed to respect the sacrifices it has made while siding with them.

Whether this latest engagement proves to be another fleeting phase or a more durable alignment remains to be seen, say experts.

Rumi, the New York-based academic, said the US has traditionally engaged Pakistan when it needed to, and retreated when it could.

“Unless this relationship is institutionalised, beyond the security lens with which it is viewed, it’s another tactical romance. And like past dalliances, it could fade once strategic goals are met or regimes change,” he said.

Ansar added that Pakistan again stands on the brink of a major strategic choice amid the global power shift.

“Much depends on whether it leans toward China or the US. That decision is also tied to the evolving Israel-Palestine conflict and the role of Iran,” he said.

But Weinbaum, the former State Department official, described the reset in ties as temporary, as “nothing is permanent in this administration”.

“If Pakistan does play some role in the Iran crisis, they have could have more substantial meaning to these ties. But it needs to be prepared that there is nothing settled with this administration. It can change on a dime, at any hour,” he said.

Power behind the scenes

The military remains Pakistan’s most powerful institution, exerting enormous influence over politics and society.

It has ruled directly for more than three decades, and the current government, elected in a controversial vote last year, is widely seen as secondary to the military leadership under Munir.

This is consistent with historical precedent. Pakistan’s first military ruler, Field Marshal Ayub Khan, had close ties with the US in the 1960s. Subsequent military rulers, including General Muhammad Zia-ul-Haq in the 1980s and General Pervez Musharraf in the 2000s, also maintained strong US relations. All three were hosted by US presidents at the White House – but only after they became heads of state.

Munir, now only the second Pakistani to hold the rank of field marshal after Khan, reinforces the perception that Pakistan’s real power remains with the military, despite the presence of a civilian government, say experts.

Still, CUNY’s Rumi said it was important not to “confuse symbolism with transformation”.

“This [Trump-Munir] meeting validates the enduring military-to-military track in US-Pakistan [ties], but it also bypasses the civilian setup, which should worry anyone rooting for democratic consolidation. If this is the “reset,” it’s one where khaki once again trumps ballot,” he cautioned, referring to the colour of the military’s uniform.

Ansar from PoliTact concurred, saying that the meeting reflects adversely on the civil-military balance in Pakistan, as it showed who remains the “real power bearer” in Pakistan.

“In the long run, these dealings in the past have led to tremendous political, economic and security-related repercussions for the nation [Pakistan],” he said.

“But additionally, it has promoted a norm that critical decisions impacting the nation must be made in private without discussion, consensus or public ownership. This results in increased societal and political disillusionment regarding the future of the country.”