capability

A key aspect of the Trump administration’s Golden Dome missile defense initiative is ensuring America’s ability to launch retaliatory nuclear strikes, the nominee to become the next head of U.S. Strategic Command (STRATCOM) has stressed. This comes amid particular concerns within the halls of the U.S. government about the new deterrence challenges posed by China’s ongoing push to expand the scope and scale of its nuclear capabilities dramatically.

Navy Vice Adm. Richard Correll, who is currently deputy head of STRATCOM, testified before the Senate Armed Services Committee last week about his nomination to lead the command. Ahead of that hearing, he also submitted unclassified written answers to questions from members of the committee.

One of the questions posed to Correll asked how, if confirmed, he would expect to work with the central manager for the Golden Dome initiative, a post currently held by Space Force Gen. Mike Guetlein.

“Per Executive Order 14186, the Golden Dome for America (GDA) Direct Reporting Program Manager (DRPM) is responsible to ‘deliver a next-generation missile defense shield to defend its citizens and critical infrastructure against any foreign aerial attack on the U.S. homeland and guarantees a second-strike capability.’ If confirmed, I look forward to working with the GDA DRPM to ensure missile defense is effective against the developing and increasingly complex missile threats, to guarantee second-strike capability, and to strengthen strategic deterrence,” Correll wrote in response.

In deterrence parlance, a second-strike capability refers to a country’s credible ability to respond in kind to hostile nuclear attacks. This is considered essential to dissuading opponents from thinking they might be able to secure victory through even a massive opening salvo.

Helping to ensure America’s second-strike nuclear deterrent capability, as well as aiding in the defense specifically against enemy “countervalue” attacks, has been central to the plan for Golden Dome, which was originally called Iron Dome, since it was first announced in January. Countervalue nuclear strikes are ones expressly aimed at population centers, as opposed to counterforce strikes directed at military targets.

“Since the United States withdrew from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty in 2002 and initiated development of limited homeland missile defense, official United States homeland missile defense policy has remained only to stay ahead of rogue-nation threats and accidental or unauthorized missile launches,” President Donald Trump wrote in his executive order on the new missile defense initiative in January. “Over the past 40 years, rather than lessening, the threat from next-generation strategic weapons has become more intense and complex with the development by peer and near-peer adversaries of next-generation delivery systems and their own homeland integrated air and missile defense capabilities.”

How exactly Golden Dome factors into the second strike equation is not entirely clear. The U.S. nuclear triad currently consists of nuclear-capable B-2 and B-52 bombers, silo-based Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM), and Ohio class nuclear submarines loaded with Trident II submarine-launched ballistic missiles. At present, the Ohio class submarines provide the core of America’s second-strike capability, but are not directly threatened by the kinds of weapons that Golden Dome is meant to shield against while they are out on their regular deterrent patrols.

At the same time, there might be scenarios in which U.S. officials are concerned that the Ohios may no longer be entirely sufficient. A massive first strike that renders the air and ground legs of the triad moot, and also targets ballistic missile submarines still in port, would certainly put immense pressure on deployed submarines to carry out adequate retaliatory strikes with the warheads available to them. If multiple countries are involved, those demands would only be magnified. Threats to the submarines at sea, including ones we may not know about, as well as enemy missile defenses, something China has also been particularly active in developing, would also have to be factored in. Concerns about the potential destruction or compromise of nuclear command and control nodes, including through physical attacks or non-kinetic ones like cyber intrusions, would affect the overall calculus, too. Altogether, ensuring greater survivability of the other legs of the triad, where Golden Dome would be more relevant, might now be viewed as necessary.

Regardless, as noted, concerns about China’s ongoing nuclear build-up and the policy shifts that come along with it have been particularly significant factors in U.S. discussions about missile defense and deterrence in recent years. The Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) just offered the first public look at elements of all three legs of its still very new strategic nuclear triad at a massive military parade in Beijing in September. In recent years, U.S. officials have been outspoken about massive assessed increases in Chinese nuclear warheads and delivery systems. This includes the construction of vast arrays of nuclear silos for intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM), as well as the development and fielding of more and more advanced road-mobile ICBMs. China is now fielding air-launched nuclear-capable ballistic missiles and is growing the size and capabilities of its fleet of nuclear ballistic missile submarines, as well. Experts have also highlighted how China’s growing nuclear capabilities could point to plans for countervalue targeting.

“China’s ambitious expansion, modernization, and diversification of its nuclear forces has heightened the need for a fully modernized, flexible, full-spectrum strategic deterrence force. China remains focused on developing capabilities to dissuade, deter, or defeat third-party intervention in the Indo-Pacific region,” Correll wrote in response to a separate question ahead of his confirmation hearing last week. “We should continue to revise our plans and operations including integrating nuclear and non-nuclear capabilities in all domains across the spectrum of conflict. This will convey to China that the United States will not be deterred from defending our interests or those of our allies and partners, and should deterrence fail, having a combat ready force to achieve the President’s objectives.”

Correll’s written responses also highlighted concerns about Russia’s nuclear modernization efforts and growing nuclear threats presented by North Korea. He also touched on the current U.S. government position that there has been a worrisome increase in coordination between China, Russia, and North Korea, which presents additional challenges that extend beyond nuclear weapons.

“The Russian Federation continues to modernize and diversify its arsenal, further complicating deterrence. Regional actors, such as the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) present additional threats,” he wrote. “More than nuclear, China and Russia maintain strategic non-nuclear capabilities that can cause catastrophic destruction. The major challenge facing USSTRATCOM is not just addressing each of these threat actors individually but addressing them comprehensively should their alignment result in coordinated aggression.”

It is important to stress that significant questions have been raised about the Golden Dome plans, including the feasibility of key elements, such as space-based anti-missile interceptors, and the immense costs expected to be involved. When any new operational Golden Dome capabilities might begin to enter service very much remains to be seen. Guetlein, the officer now in charge of the initiative, has described it as being “on the magnitude of the Manhattan Project,” which produced the very first nuclear weapons. 

There is also the question of whether work on Golden Dome might exacerbate the exact nuclear deterrence imbalances it is supposed to help address. In his written responses to the questions ahead of his confirmation hearing, Correll acknowledged the impact that U.S. missile defense developments over the past two decades have already had on China’s nuclear arsenal and deterrence policies.

“China believes these new capabilities offset existing U.S. and allies missile defense systems,” he wrote. This, in turn, “may affect their nuclear strike calculus, especially if state survival is at risk.”

Russian officials also regularly highlight countering U.S. missile defenses as a key driver behind their country’s efforts to expand and evolve its nuclear arsenal. Just last week, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin claimed that new tests of the Burevestnik cruise missile and the Poseidon torpedo, both of which are nuclear-powered and intended to be nuclear-armed, had been successfully carried out. The development of both of those weapons has been influenced by a desire to obviate missile defenses.

In terms of global nuclear deterrence policies, there is now the additional wrinkle of the possibility of the United States resuming critical-level weapons testing. Trump announced a still largely unclear shift in U.S. policy in this regard last week. The U.S. Department of Energy has pushed back on the potential for new tests involving the detonation of actual nuclear devices, but Trump has also talked about a need to match work being done by Russia and China. You can read more about the prospect of new full-up U.S. nuclear weapon testing here.

The United States has more Nuclear Weapons than any other country. This was accomplished, including a complete update and renovation of existing weapons, during my First Term in office. Because of the tremendous destructive power, I HATED to do it, but had no choice! Russia is…

— Commentary: Trump Truth Social Posts On X (@TrumpTruthOnX) October 30, 2025

American authorities have accused Russia in the past of violating its obligations under the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) with very low-yield tests and criticized China for a lack of transparency around its testing activities. Russian authorities say they are now looking into what it would take to resume open critical-level nuclear testing in response to Trump’s comments.

North Korea is the only country to have openly conducted critical-level nuclear tests in the 21st century, and there are fears now it could be gearing up for another one. It should be noted that the United States and other nuclear powers regularly conduct nuclear weapon testing that does not involve critical-level detonations.

For now, as underscored by Correll’s responses to the questions posed ahead of his recent confirmation hearing, concerns about the assuredness of America’s nuclear second-strike capability remain a key factor in the push ahead with Golden Dome.

Contact the author: [email protected]

The Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has demonstrated its ability to launch and recover aircraft from its first catapult-equipped aircraft carrier, the Fujian. Official imagery released by the PLAN today confirms that the new J-35 naval stealth fighters and KJ-600 airborne early warning and control aircraft are carrying out carrier trials, something that had not been seen until now. Meanwhile, we’ve also got a much better view of the J-15T single-seat carrier-based fighter launching and recovering aboard Fujian, having previously seen it in position for a catapult launch with its afterburners engaged. The sudden appearance of video of all three aircraft operating from the ship for the first time is something of a stunning revelation, one of many that has come this year from China’s air power portfolio.

The undated videos and photos showing flight operations aboard Fujian reveal examples of all three aircraft being prepared for catapult launch, taking off, and then making arrested recoveries. The aircraft are also shown in flight, including in formation with a J-15D series electronic warfare aircraft, and Fujian is shown from above, with the J-35, KJ-600, and J-15T arranged on its deck.

Fujian has been conducting sea trials since May 2024, and there have been growing signs that fixed-wing flight operations were underway. In August of this year, official imagery showed J-15s on the deck of the carrier and flying at low level above it. At that stage, however, there were no clear indications that the J-15 had actually taken off from and/or landed on Fujian.

An earlier video is shown below of J-15 activity aboard Fujian, but without presenting any carrier takeoffs or recoveries:

First-ever official footage of flight operations aboard China’s newest, soon-to-be commissioned aircraft carrier, CNS Fujian (18)

On the eve of the PLA’s 98th anniversary, PRC media released video showcasing another major milestone: integration tests between the electromagnetic… pic.twitter.com/wIrU4hxFi6

— Ian Ellis (@ianellisjones) July 31, 2025

While we don’t know how long these fixed-wing aircraft types have now been conducting flight operations aboard the carrier, revealing all three in action at once is something of a coup.

Of the three types, the J-15 family is a Chinese development of the Soviet-era Sukhoi Su-33 Flanker, with the T version being specifically developed for catapult launch. Earlier variants of the J-15, as well as the Su-33, were designed for use on short takeoff but assisted recovery (STOBAR) carriers with ‘ski jumps’ rather than catapults, like the PLAN’s first two flattops. The J-15T had previously been seen operating from these two earlier vessels, in which case it relies on the STOBAR mode. However, the addition of a catapult launch bar (and less visible additional structural modifications) means the T-model is very much optimized for Fujian, from which it will be able to launch at higher operating weights than in STOBAR mode.

The J-35 is the PLAN’s next-generation carrier fighter, a stealthy design that was intended to conduct catapult takeoff but assisted recovery (CATOBAR) operations from the outset. Developed from the land-based FC-31, there are also signs that the J-35, like the J-15T, might also eventually embark on the Liaoning and Shandong. Until now, however, it hadn’t been seen taking part in any kind of carrier operations, other than in the form of mock-ups.

As for the KJ-600, the size and performance of this aircraft mean that it’s only suitable for CATOBAR operations, restricting its use to Fujian and any follow-on carriers. At least three examples are seen on the deck of Fujian. This aircraft will fulfill the same role as the U.S. Navy’s E-2 Hawkeye, and, although not a direct copy, it is extremely similar both in size and overall design.

Also seen in the new imagery is the Z-9 helicopter, a license-produced variant of the Eurocopter (now Airbus Helicopters) AS365 Dauphin. Z-9s are also part of the air wings found on China’s STOBAR carriers, including for use as plane guards while fixed-wing aircraft are launching and recovering, and the type has been seen on the deck of Fujian, too, in the past.

Overall, testing Fujian’s abilities to launch and recover fixed-wing aircraft is a critical part of the path to operational service. However, it has added resonance since not only is the carrier fully homegrown, but so are the J-35 and KJ-600, the most important elements of its air wing, and they have not previously been to sea, at least in an operational capacity. The PLAN is therefore introducing to service a new carrier design and at least two new naval aircraft designs simultaneously, which is impressive by any measure.

Just as significant is the fact that Fujian is equipped with electromagnetically powered catapults, the testing of which first began in 2023 while the ship was still being fitted out.

In contrast to the U.S. Navy, which gathered decades of experience with steam-powered catapults, China opted for electromagnetic ones for its first CATOBAR carrier. It’s worth noting that the U.S. Navy’s USS Gerald R. Ford was the first carrier ever to get an aircraft into the air using what is also referred to as an electromagnetic aircraft launch system (EMALS). However, it has not launched an F-35C so far, making the J-35 the first stealth jet to achieve this feat. Based on earlier predictions, the F-35C may not do the same for some years.

As we have discussed in the past, electromagnetic catapults offer several advantages, not least the fact that they can be more finely tuned to very different aircraft types, including ones that are larger and slower (like the KJ-600), or which are smaller and lighter, such as smaller drones. EMALS are also less mechanically complex than their predecessors, providing lower reset times that can help boost sortie-generation rate. On the other hand, the technology behind the electromagnetic catapults on USS Gerald R. Ford proved to be hard to master, causing issues for years before the U.S. Navy said it was able to mitigate them.

While the latest imagery from Fujian’s trials focuses on traditionally crewed fixed-wing airpower, it’s very likely that this carrier, and other aviation-capable PLAN ships, will eventually operate advanced uncrewed platforms. In this case, the capabilities offered by EMALS are particularly relevant. The PLAN is known to be working on advanced uncrewed combat air vehicles (UCAVs) and other types of drones that can be launched from carriers and big-deck amphibious warfare ships. Fujian will surely be no exception in this regard.

Videos provide a comparison of a STOBAR J-15 carrier launch and a CATOBAR J-15T launch from Fujian:

Whatever trials and tribulations the PLAN might have faced with its new homegrown carrier, its advanced electromagnetic catapults, and its new-look air wing, the Fujian project is indicative of a broader modernization drive within the service.

As well as increasingly advanced and powerful surface combatants and submarines, China is understood to be already working on its next CATOBAR carrier. Generally referred to as the Type 004, this may also be nuclear-powered.

The expanding PLAN carrier force also reflects growing strategic ambitions for the PLAN, as it pivots toward being able to take part in higher-end regional missions, such as intervention against Taiwan, as well as longer-range blue water operations in the Pacific and beyond.

For China, therefore, Fujian is much more than just a point of national and naval pride. With the carrier now expected to enter operational service by the end of this year, we will surely learn more about this landmark design for the PLAN, and the various aircraft that will serve aboard it.

Contact the author: [email protected]

A recent computer-generated video from Boeing includes MQ-28 Ghost Bat drones with apparent receptacles on top of their fuselages to allow for aerial refueling from boom-equipped tankers. Mid-air refueling capability would extend the MQ-28’s reach and on-station time, but would also add complexity and cost to the design.

Boeing released the video in question, seen below, last week. It is primarily intended to tout the ability of the company’s new F-15EX Eagle II fighter to act as an airborne drone controller, a role the two-seat jet is well-suited to, as TWZ has been highlighting for years now. Boeing is now reportedly actively pitching MQ-28 to Poland in combination with a possible purchase of F-15EXs.

The Ghost Bat was first developed by Boeing’s subsidiary in Australia for the Royal Australian Air Force (RAAF), but other customers, including the U.S. Navy, could be on the horizon. The U.S. Air Force has also made use of at least one MQ-28 in the past to support advanced uncrewed aircraft and autonomy development efforts.

As seen in screen captures from Boeing video at the top of this story and below, the MQ-28s are depicted with panel lines and markings on top of their fuselage that are consistent with receptacles for receiving fuel in mid-air via the boom method. The markings, in particular, are virtually identical to those seen on F-22 Raptors and F-35A Joint Strike Fighters.

The full scenario shown in the video involves the crews of the F-15EXs using the Ghost Bats as additional sensor nodes to help find and target a hostile air defense system. One of the Eagle IIs then launches an AGM-84H/K Standoff Land Attack Missile-Expanded Response (SLAM-ER) cruise missile, another Boeing product, to destroy the target.

In addition, the video presents the MQ-28s as each carrying a pair of AIM-120 Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missiles (AMRAAM) internally and being equipped with various sensors, including an infrared search and track system (IRST). At least two of the RAAF’s initial batch of MQ-28s have been seen equipped with an IRST sensor in the nose. In general, IRST sensors provide a valuable alternative and/or companion to radars, particularly when it comes to spotting and tracking stealthy aircraft and missiles. IRSTs are also immune to electronic warfare attacks and operate passively, meaning they don’t send signals that can alert an opponent to the fact that they have been detected and are being tracked. Drones with IRST sensors offer valuable additional passive forward sensor nodes that can hunt for threats and pass data to other platforms. For the MQ-28 (and other CCA-like drones) this would primarily be their controlling platform, which will often be operating to the rear of their locations.

It is interesting to note that real MQ-28s have similar, if not identical panels on top of the fuselage, but do not appear to have ever been seen with any markings pointing to it being linked to an aerial refueling capability. Whether or not Boeing has ever previously mentioned even the possibility of an aerial refueling capability for the Ghost Bat is unclear.

In response to queries from TWZ for more information about what is seen in the recent video, a Boeing spokesperson told us that “all I can share is that the video is conceptual in nature.”

Aerial refueling capability would extend the MQ-28’s overall range, which Boeing has said in the past is at least 2,300 miles (3,700 kilometers) on a single tank of gas. The ability to refuel in mid-air would also allow the drone to remain on station longer after arriving in a designated operating area. The uncrewed aircraft could break off to refuel and then return to station, or move to a different part of the battlespace, all without having to return to base first, as well.

Since a drone does not have a pilot that needs to drink, eat, sleep, and go relieve itself, aerial refueling capability could allow for a significant degree of additional persistence depending on the assigned mission. Airborne control of the drones could also be passed between crewed platforms rotating in and out of an operating area. All of this would open up new operational possibilities, as well as expand the number of potential launch and/or recovery locations, for air-to-air refueling-capable MQ-28s.

Australia, in particular, is present with challenges when it comes to projecting crewed or uncrewed airpower just by virtue of its location within the sprawling Indo-Pacific region. The “tyranny of distance” is a common refrain when discussing military operations in the Pacific, in general.

The RAAF would at least have a basic capacity to gas-up future MQ-28s with aerial refueling receptacles via its boom-equipped Airbus A330 Multi-Role Tanker Transports (MRTT), which are locally designated as KC-30As. Airbus has also notably been working on improvements to the core MRTT design to enable the safe refueling of uncrewed aircraft via the boom method.

MQ-28s with aerial refueling receptacles could also be of interest to other air arms with boom-equipped tankers. U.S. Air Force officials have talked about aerial refueling capability in the past in the context of the Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) drone program. Air-to-air refueling is notably seen as one way to help balance range and performance requirements.

All of this, in turn, has raised questions about how much more complex and costly it might be to add this capability to any CCA-type design. It has also prompted discussions about how fielding large fleets of aerial refueling-capable drones might impact already strained tanker fleets. The Air Force has separately been exploring novel options for increasing its overall aerial refueling capacity, including boom-equipped buddy refueling stores small enough for tactical jets like the F-15 to carry. An uncrewed aircraft like the MQ-28 would sip relatively small amounts of fuel compared to a medium or heavy crewed fighter, as well.

It’s also worth remembering here that providing organic defense for increasingly vulnerable, but critical tankers and other support aircraft has long been a mission envisioned for the MQ-28, as well as various other ‘loyal wingman’ type drones. Uncrewed aircraft that can be refueled in flight could help increase the persistence of that defensive screen. In other words, tankers and surveillance aircraft can bring their own uncrewed combat air patrol with them and control them directly.

If Boeing can alter the MQ-28 design, specifically, for refueling via boom, the Ghost Bat might also be adaptable to receiving fuel in mid-air via the probe-and-drogue method. This would increase the total number of potential tankers that could refuel MQ-28s. Boeing has previously shown a render of a derivative of the MQ-25 Stingray tanker drone, which it is developing for the U.S. Navy, with a refueling probe. The Navy has expressed a “strong interest” in the Ghost Bat, or a variant or derivative thereof, potentially for future carrier-based use. Boeing has pitched a carrier-capable version of the design at least to the United Kingdom in the past.

It is important to remember here that extensive work has been done in the unclassified realm to develop the technologies necessary for the refueling of drones via crewed tankers using the boom-and-receptacle and probe-and-drogue methods, including various real-world demonstrations. Drones refueling other drones, as well as other crewed aircraft, using probe-and-drogue systems, has also already been proven out by Boeing (through the MQ-25 program) and others. The possibility has been raised in the past that the U.S. military has actually fielded uncrewed aircraft capable of recieving fuel in mid-air, at least on a limited level in the classified realm, but this remains unconfirmed.

Boeing has otherwise been betting big on the MQ-28, including with major investments to expand its capacity to produce the drones in Australia. The RAAF has already received eight Ghost Bats in a Block 1 prototype configuration, and Boeing is on contract to deliver at least three more improved Block 2 types that are seen as a pathway to an operational capability. Australian officials have openly discussed the possibility of acquiring further MQ-28 variants down the line.

Just last week, Boeing announced a number of RAAF testing milestones it says were achieved before the end of June, including “autonomous behaviors and mission execution,” “multi-ship operations to provide combat mass,” and “data fusion and sharing data between multiple MQ-28 aircraft and transmission of that data to a crewed platform.” Back in June, Boeing had already disclosed a successful demonstration of the ability of RAAF personnel aboard an E-7 Wedgetail airborne early warning and control aircraft to direct MQ-28s to engage an aerial threat. Once again, this could help pave the way for large support aircraft bringing along their own defensive drone patrols.

Boeing also said the MQ-28s built to date have now completed 150 hours of testing, with another 20,000+ hours of testing of the design in virtual environments.

“The RAAF set the task of proving the first four steps in the Air Combat chain for the MQ-28, and we have accomplished that sooner than anticipated,” Glen Ferguson, Boeing’s MQ-28 global program director, said in a statement today. “Completing this work early allows us to accelerate the next phases of development – engage and assess – with an air-to-air weapon shot planned for later this year or in early 2026.”

Exactly when the RAAF might begin flying MQ-28s in any configuration operationally is unclear. Australia’s National Security Committee is expected to make a decision about whether or not to proceed with additional Ghost Bat purchases before the end of the year, according to a report last week from Aviation Week.

Altogether, while the idea of an MQ-28 capable of being refueled in flight may just be a concept now, it could well prove to be an attractive addition to the still evolving Ghost Bat design.

Contact the author: [email protected]

THE HAGUE — Days before NATO was set to convene in the Netherlands, one of its top commanders, Pierre Vandier, tasked with transforming the alliance for the next fight, put out a call: Britain will need to step up its intelligence contributions to the alliance going forward.

“The UK has this in its DNA,” Vandier said.

It was an acknowledgment that the United States, pivoting toward a far greater intelligence threat from China, may leave its European allies behind in their own existential fight with Russia. A lack of reliability on the world’s leading AI superpower, European officials say, will render the continent vulnerable in a race for intelligence superiority set to revolutionize global battlefields.

The rush toward artificial intelligence has been a strong undercurrent at the NATO Summit in the Hague this week, serving not only as a gathering for leaders of the alliance, but also as a defense industry forum for emerging power players in Silicon Valley, treated in Holland’s gilded halls as a new kind of royalty.

“AI is going to be an important part of warfare going forward, but it’s still very new, and NATO tends not to be at the tip of the spear of innovation — and there is some division within the alliance on how to develop AI, when it comes to AI regulation and safety,” said Max Bergmann, director of the Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

“Tech companies don’t hold the same pride of place in the European economic system, and they’re not consumed with the need to compete with China militarily — they are much more focused on Russia,” Bergmann added. “While the U.S. is about winning the AI race, Europeans are watching what’s happening in Ukraine and saying, ‘we just need to deter Russia.’”

So far, for European capitals, that has meant incorporating powerful data collection and processing systems into defense departments and improving the performance of automated surveillance systems and drones — skills well within Europe’s capabilities. Several German and French companies, such as Helsing, Azur and Quantum Systems, are already developing products based on what they are seeing in Ukraine.

But the next fight will require technologies that dwarf existing drone capabilities, experts said.

“We’ve been predicting for a while that there would be integration of AI into military research and development and defense systems, and I expect, for example, that advanced cyber capabilities will play an important role in the coming years,” said Jonas Vollmer, chief operating officer of the AI Futures Project. “Europe has influence, but it is grappling with the difficult reality that they don’t have access or strong domestic development of frontier AI systems, and they are pretty far behind.”

Last year, NATO allies agreed to speed up the adoption of artificial intelligence in its operations. There are signs the bloc senses urgency to do so, signing an agreement with Palantir, a U.S.-based technology company, to incorporate AI into its warfighting systems after just six months of negotiations.

The United States and China are far ahead of competitors in the race for AI superiority, measured in raw computing power and proximity to general artificial intelligence — AI that has human-level cognitive capabilities to learn and develop on its own – and ultimately to superintelligence, surpassing the human mind.

Still, the United Kingdom is a serious player in the field. The kingdom ranks third in government investment in AI research anywhere in the world and maintains strong partnerships with some of the most powerful U.S. players.

In its most recent defense strategy, also published shortly before the NATO summit, Britain committed to integrate artificial intelligence into its “NATO-first” national security approach. “Forecasts of when Artificial General Intelligence will occur are uncertain but shortening, with profound implications for Defence,” the document reads.

Europe’s race for intelligence capabilities is driven, in part, by lessons learned on the battlefields of Ukraine. But Russia is not seen as an AI powerhouse in and of itself. Moscow instead uses low-cost tests of drone incursions and cyberattacks to keep pressure on the alliance, Vandier told the Times of London in an interview. “The aim, I think, is to consume all our energy in purely defensive actions, which are very costly,” he said.

Whether Russia can enhance its own AI capabilities is an open question.

“The key ingredients of being at the frontier with AI are talent and data centers,” said Vollmer, of the AI Futures Project.

“Russia lags far behind on both,” he added, “but they can collaborate with China, of course.”

WASHINGTON — The Trump administration invited travel industry executives to the White House in May for a meeting on federal plans for the 2026 World Cup, a landmark event that under normal circumstances would draw massive international tourism to the United States. It was a welcome gathering by President Trump and his team for an industry eager to capitalize on a rare opportunity and capture tourism dollars.

Welcome, at least, until Vice President JD Vance cracked a joke.

“We’ll have visitors from close to 100 countries — we want them to come, we want them to celebrate, we want them to watch the games. But when the time is up, they’ll have to go home. Otherwise, they’ll have to talk to Secretary Noem,” Vance said, referring to the Homeland Security secretary and head of border enforcement.

Vance’s remarks, while taken in jest, fell flat in a room filled with experts more keenly aware than most of the challenges facing travel in the Trump era.

“It’s one of those moments where you’re almost, like, stop helping us,” one participant in the meeting told The Times, granted anonymity to speak candidly.

Stories are flooding media overseas of capricious denials and detentions at U.S. border crossings, raising concern among international tourists over spending top dollar on vacations to America that may end up disrupted, or never materialize. Erratic tariff policies out of the White House have shaken consumer confidence that experts say reliably tracks with discretionary spending on travel. And a series of scares in U.S. aviation, coupled with cuts to the National Park Service and the National Weather Service, have made planning trips to some of the country’s top destinations less reliable.

In California, the nation’s No. 1 tourist destination, international visits are expected to drop by 9.2% through the year, with international spending anticipated to drop 4.2%, according to a forecast published last month by Visit California and Tourism Economics.

Around Yosemite National Park, one of the nation’s most popular attractions, reported bookings were down “as much as 50% going into Memorial Day weekend,” Caroline Beteta, president and chief executive of Visit California, told The Times.

Narratives of travel disruptions under the Trump administration have given pause to U.S. officials and industry experts concerned not only with the immediate economic consequences of a slower summer season, but with the prospects of anemic attendance at World Cup games next year and, beyond, for the Olympics in Los Angeles in 2028.

“Consumer confidence certainly matters,” said Geoff Freeman, president and chief executive of the U.S. Travel Assn. “It creates a degree of uncertainty.”

‘People should plan ahead’

Unlike much of the rest of the country, California is particularly susceptible to shifting trends among tourists from Asia, where tourism has yet to rebound from the COVID-19 pandemic as robustly as it has in the Americas and Europe. Commercial flight restrictions over Russian airspace and the strength of the U.S. dollar haven’t helped, Freeman said.

On the other hand, California benefits from a tourism industry that relies more heavily on domestic travelers, the source of 80% of tourism dollars spent in the state, Beteta noted.

“There’s no question that there are widespread misperceptions about impacts to the travel experience, from reports about staff cuts to detentions at the border,” Beteta said. “Cuts at the National Park Service, for example, don’t affect the park concessionaires — and those companies run most of the visitor-facing services, such as lodging, dining, shuttle services and much more. The misperception of chaos at the parks is a PR issue that can have real consequences.”

Visitors board buses in Yosemite National Park on May 20. Reported bookings around Yosemite National Park were down 50% leading into Memorial Day weekend.

(Carlos Avila Gonzalez / San Francisco Chronicle via Getty Images)

But Cassidy Jones, senior visitation program manager at the National Parks Conservation Assn., said that cuts to the parks are tangible and will directly affect visitors’ experience over the coming months, despite efforts by leadership at the Department of the Interior to paper over the cracks.

“There may be fewer entrance gates open,” Jones said. “People should plan ahead and remember to be helpful park visitors. Take the optional shuttle. Come with supplies with you, as some facilities may be closed at hours you’re not expecting, because they don’t have the staff to keep them open. Toilets may not be unwinterized yet if they’re in cold places.”

In April, Interior Secretary Doug Burgum issued an order directing that national parks be “open and accessible” through the summer season, as fears grew that staffing cuts implemented by the administration could become apparent. Still, the White House cuts and hiring freezes severely disrupted a seasonal hiring and training cadence for park rangers that usually begins around Christmas, Jones said.

“Some parks may not feel like a lot of changes are evident, but there’s a lot of work that is not being done in the background,” Jones added. “The order basically demanded that even though parks have experienced devastating staffing cuts, they are to put on a sort of public appearance that everything is business as usual. That means pulling superintendents to work in visitor centers, science and research management staff to make sure facilities are clean — biologists cleaning toilets, that sort of thing.”

Flight disruptions expected

Twenty years ago, roughly half of flight delays were caused by uncertainty over the weather — a number that has dropped to 33% in recent years thanks to improved forecast quality. That progress is starting to reverse due to widespread cuts in talent, and will be felt by travelers sooner rather than later, said Rick Spinrad, who served as administrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration under President Biden.

Trump’s government efficiency program, known as DOGE, has eliminated hundreds of positions at NOAA, including at the National Weather Service, and is proposing a 25% cut in the agency’s budget.

“In the short term, this summer, when people are doing longer traveling, we may see a degradation of services. You may see more delayed flights, more weather-impacted flights,” Spinrad said.

But Spinrad’s concern is that the cuts to NOAA will soon be felt much more deeply, at the local level, among the emergency managers, local transportation departments and public health centers that count on reliable forecasts to map out their work.

“What we’re going to start to see, I think, is the erosion of the capability of NOAA to provide services to the degree that people had become accustomed to,” he said.

Spinrad visited Southern California in late May and was taken aback by the number of people raising concern over the agency’s ability to continue predicting atmospheric river events, with all of their implications on public safety, reservoir operations and hydro power. Those forecasts rely heavily on the work of a satellite operations facility that was gutted by the Trump administration.

And the capabilities of the National Weather Service to predict phenomena like Santa Ana winds, which fueled devastating fires in Los Angeles in January, are at risk, with 30 of the agency’s 122 weather forecast offices operating without meteorologists and with technicians cut throughout, he said.

“I know it will degrade, just by definition. Everything’s going to degrade,” Spinrad added. “All of NOAA’s predictive capabilities will degrade as a result of these cuts.”

Mark Spalding, president of the Ocean Foundation, warned the aviation industry would soon face disruptions as NOAA’s capabilities continue to diminish.

“We will see effects this summer, because they’ve fired so many people and shut down so much activity,” Spalding said.

“There are a lot of services that a lot of people rely on that NOAA provides — weather prediction, ocean observing, tsunami early warning, hurricane center monitoring,” he added. “There’s a lot this summer that could be affected in ways that are akin to what we’re seeing in air traffic control due to the sudden loss of personnel there.”

Still, Freeman, of the U.S. Travel Assn., expressed optimism for the U.S. tourism sector going forward, noting he and his counterparts are in “regular communication” with the Trump administration over headwinds facing the multitrillion-dollar industry.

“We have no shortage of challenges in the travel industry,” he said. “I think the picture right now for travel is uncertain, at worst.”

“For every challenge you see, there is an opportunity on the other side,” he added.

BEIRUT, Lebanon, May 16 (UPI) — U.S. President Donald Trump‘s unexpected approach to Syria has presented a significant opportunity for the country’s interim president, Ahmad Sharaa, to prove that he can overcome the enormous challenges he faces and lead the war-torn nation toward recovery and stabilization, political analysts and experts said.

Trump’s announcement of the cessation of U.S. sanctions, along with his meeting with Sharaa — a former jihadist who, until recently, was on the U.S. most-wanted list with a $10 million bounty on his head — marked a turning point and the beginning of a new chapter for Syria nearly six months after the fall of President Bashar al-Assad and his Baathist regime.

With Assad gone, the sanctions were increasingly seen as only prolonging the suffering of the Syrian people and worsening the already catastrophic humanitarian conditions.

Had the sanctions remained in place, Syria would have become a failed state, as it was just weeks away from financial collapse, according to Mouaz Mustafa of the Syrian Emergency Task Force. In an interview with PBS NewsHour, Mustafa warned that continued sanctions would have led to disastrous consequences for both the region and the world.

With layers of sanctions in place since 1979, the process of lifting them remains unclear, and experts say it will take time.

“There is a huge difference between deciding to lift sanctions and actually lifting them,” Nanar Hawach, a senior Syria analyst for the International Crisis Group, told UPI.

However, he said it would be “a game-changer” for the economy, giving the green light for the private sector and other stakeholders involved in Syria to step in and “be more bold.”

Since taking over after Assad’s ouster, Sharaa has repeatedly called for the lifting of U.S. and other international sanctions to allow his country to breathe again. He understands that without funding and financial support, there is little he can do to put Syria back on track.

Mona Yacoubian, director of the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said that the continuation of sanctions was hindering the country’s ability to recover and move forward.

Yacoubian noted that removing the sanctions would open the way for Gulf countries in particular to “do more” and channel more resources toward Syria’s early recovery and stabilization, and eventually, reconstruction — provided it is done “transparently and in a responsible way.”

However, Syria’s problems will not be resolved simply by ending the sanctions.

Sharaa is facing “very significant issues,” including sectarian tensions, the need for transitional justice, and how to manage the more extreme elements of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS — the group he led before becoming president — as well as affiliated factions on which he continues to rely while trying to consolidate control.

“So how will he use this newfound breathing space and the anticipated resources to consolidate his personal power, or rather to put Syria on a more sustainable path toward stability and, ultimately, peace?” Yacoubian asked rhetorically.

She added that he will have to demonstrate a willingness to undertake complex processes related to transitional justice, inclusive governance, and national reconciliation.

According to Hawach, Trump has given Sharaa “the benefit of the doubt,” and the new leadership in Damascus will need to seize this opportunity to meet internal and external expectations.

“How willing are they to take bold, risky steps such as distancing themselves from their radical base and expanding to include a broader range of constituencies?” he asked. “Are they prepared to take courageous actions to rein in or address the presence of foreign fighters? Would they focus on other issues, such as building institutional capacity or strengthening military capabilities?”

Trump, who described Sharaa as an “attractive, tough guy,” urged him to join the Abraham Accords and normalize relations with Israel, expel foreign fighters from Syria, deport Palestinian militants, assist the U.S. in preventing an ISIS resurgence and take responsibility for ISIS detention centers in northeast Syria.

What Syrians want most is a more inclusive national dialogue and political process, the formation of a national army and measures to address the fears of minority groups.

Anas Joudeh, a political researcher and founder of the Nation Building Movement in Syria, said the first step would be for Sharaa to seriously engage with all of the country’s constituencies, restart the national dialogue, adopt a new constitution, and form a more inclusive government.

“We can’t expect things to be perfect right now,” Joudeh told UPI. “We will strongly support any move toward greater inclusivity, as the country is heading toward total economic and social collapse.”

He said the key to Syria’s successful transition is the formation of a national army, which poses a “big challenge” for Sharaa. This includes absorbing the armed factions, addressing the foreign fighters who still maintain control in several areas and convincing the Druze, Alawites and Kurds to lay down their weapons.

“But that would be very difficult if Sharaa keeps on [running the country] with the same mentality,” Joudeh said.

Sharaa will, therefore, need to address the concerns of the Druze, Alawites and Kurds, find solutions to mitigate feelings of existential threat, impose security and, ultimately, act not as a faction leader, but as the leader of the entire country, Hawach said.

“If they decide to make positive steps towards these communities, this is the perfect time to do so,” he added.

He explained that with the possibility of accessing much-needed funds, the country can recruit for the army, establish better command control and gain more leverage to deal with armed factions that are not yet fully under the new authorities’ control.

Makram Rabah, a political activist and history professor at the American University of Beirut, said Trump’s meeting with Sharaa will put more pressures on him to act as a political leader.

“Lifting the sanctions sent a message not only to Sharaa but also to the Druze, Kurds and Alawites: that there is political cover, a form of settlement, and a need to work together,” Rabah told UPI. “However, this is far from easy.”