Border Disputes

The aid is earmarked to help support both countries in border stabilisation efforts, demining and tackling drug trafficking and cyberscams.

The United States has announced it will provide $45m in aid to help solidify a fragile truce brokered by President Donald Trump between Thailand and Cambodia.

Michael DeSombre, the US assistant secretary for East Asia, said on Friday that the US would offer $20m to help both countries combat drug trafficking and cyberscams, which have become a major concern in Cambodia.

DeSombre was meeting with senior Thai and Cambodian officials in Bangkok and Phnom Penh on Friday and Saturday to discuss implementation of the peace accords, according to a senior State Department official.

DeSombre also said $15m would be given for border stabilisation efforts to help support people displaced by the recent fighting, as well as $10m for de-mining and unexploded ordnance clearance.

“The United States will continue to support the Cambodian and Thai governments as they implement the Kuala Lumpur Peace Accords and pave the way for a return to peace, prosperity and stability for their people and the region,” DeSombre said in a statement.

DeSombre was referring to an agreement signed between the two countries in Trump’s presence during his October visit to Malaysia, then head of the ASEAN regional bloc.

Border clashes between Cambodia and Thailand flared up again last month, after the collapse of a truce brokered in July by Trump and Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim to end a previous round of conflict.

The Southeast Asian neighbours agreed on another ceasefire on December 27, halting 20 days of fighting that killed at least 101 people and displaced more than half a million on both sides.

Thailand accused Cambodia of violating this latest ceasefire, though later retracted the accusation, with the Thai military saying the Cambodian side had contacted them to explain the so-called violation was an accidental fire.

Cambodia, meanwhile, has called on Thailand to pull its forces out of several border areas that Phnom Penh claims as its own.

The nations’ longstanding conflict stems from a dispute over France’s colonial-era demarcation of their 800km (500-mile) border, where both sides claim territory and several centuries-old temple ruins.

Trump has listed the conflict as one of several wars he says he has solved as he loudly insists he deserves the Nobel Peace Prize.

Trump, on taking office, drastically slashed foreign aid, including for months freezing longstanding assistance to Cambodia for de-mining, with the administration saying it will provide money only in support of narrow US interests.

US citizens have been targeted by financial fraud operations taking place at scam centres throughout Southeast Asia.

Thailand is a longtime US ally, while the US has sought to improve relations with Cambodia to try to woo it away from strategic rival China.

Russia has threatened to retaliate against Ukraine after alleging that nearly 100 drones had targeted one of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s residences.

The threat on Monday was made as United States President Donald Trump tries to broker a peace agreement to end the war in Ukraine, which will enter its fifth year in February.

What has Russia claimed?

On Monday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov alleged that Ukraine had launched the attack on the Valdai residence, one of Putin’s residences in the Novgorod region in northwestern Russia. The property is 360km (225 miles) north of Moscow.

Lavrov told reporters that Ukraine had launched 91 drones towards the residence. He added that air defence systems shot down the drones and no one was injured.

The Russian Ministry of Defence said 49 of the drones were shot down over the Bryansk region, one was shot down over the Smolensk region and 41 were shot down over the Novgorod region while en route.

“Such reckless actions will not go unanswered,” Lavrov said. “The targets for retaliatory strikes and the timing of their implementation by the Russian armed forces have been determined.”

Russian officials accused Ukraine and its president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, of carrying out the strike to derail the prospects of a peace agreement.

In an apparent reference to Zelenskyy, Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev wrote on X: “The stinking Kiev b**tard is trying to derail the settlement of the conflict. He wants war. Well, now at least he’ll have to stay in hiding for the rest of his worthless life.”

Kremlin foreign policy aide Yury Ushakov said the strike took place on Sunday “practically immediately after” talks were held in Florida between Trump and Zelenskyy on ending Russia’s war on Ukraine.

After that meeting, Trump and Zelenskyy had voiced optimism, saying a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine was “close”.

Putin has not publicly commented on the attack yet. It is unclear where Putin was at the time of the attack, but he was holding meetings in the Kremlin on Saturday and Monday.

How has Ukraine responded?

Zelenskyy has strongly denied Russia’s allegation that Ukraine attacked one of Putin’s residences.

“Russia is at it again, using dangerous statements to undermine all achievements of our shared diplomatic efforts with President Trump’s team,” Zelenskyy wrote in an X post on Monday.

“This alleged ‘residence strike’ story is a complete fabrication intended to justify additional attacks against Ukraine, including Kyiv, as well as Russia’s own refusal to take necessary steps to end the war.”

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha also condemned Moscow’s claims, saying they were designed to undermine the negotiations.

In a post on X, Sybiha said the claim was intended “to create a pretext and false justification for Russia’s further attacks against Ukraine, as well as to undermine and impede the peace process”.

In another post on Tuesday, Sybiha wrote: “Almost a day passed and Russia still hasn’t provided any plausible evidence to its accusations of Ukraine’s alleged ‘attack on Putin’s residence.’ And they won’t. Because there’s none. No such attack happened.”

How has Trump reacted?

Trump appeared to accept the Russian version of events on Monday when he told reporters: “It’s one thing to be offensive. It’s another thing to attack his house. It’s not the right time to do any of that. And I learned about it from President Putin today. I was very angry about it.”

But when reporters asked Trump if US intelligence agencies had evidence of the alleged attack, Trump said: “We’ll find out.”

Congressman Don Bacon, a member of Trump’s Republican Party, criticised the president for accepting the Russian account of events without assessing the facts.

“President Trump and his team should get the facts first before assuming blame. Putin is a well known boldface liar,” Bacon wrote in an X post.

How have other world leaders reacted?

Like Trump, other leaders appeared to accept the Russian allegations.

In a statement released on Monday, the United Arab Emirates Ministry of Foreign Affairs wrote: “The United Arab Emirates has strongly condemned the attempt to target the residence of His Excellency Vladimir Putin, President of the Russian Federation, and denounced this deplorable attack and the threat it poses to security and stability.”

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi wrote in an X post on Tuesday: “Deeply concerned by reports of the targeting of the residence of the President of the Russian Federation.”

Modi added that the ongoing diplomatic engagement being led by the US is the “most viable path” towards achieving peace. “We urge all concerned to remain focused on these efforts and to avoid any actions that could undermine them.”

Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif also condemned the alleged attack.

“Pakistan condemns the reported targeting of the residence of His Excellency Vladimir Putin, President of the Russian Federation. Such a heinous act constitutes a grave threat to peace, security, and stability, particularly at a time when efforts aimed at peace are underway,” Sharif wrote on X.

“Pakistan expresses its solidarity with the President of the Russian Federation, and with the government and people of Russia.”

Have Putin’s residences previously been attacked?

Russia has made previous claims of Ukrainian attacks on Putin’s residences, including on the Kremlin, Putin’s official residence and main workplace.

In May 2023, Moscow alleged that Ukraine had deployed two drones to attack Putin’s residence in the Kremlin citadel but said its forces had disabled the drones. Kyiv denied any involvement.

On December 25, 2024, Russia alleged that it had intercepted and destroyed a Ukrainian drone also targeting the Kremlin. Kyiv again denied responsibility.

Conversely, Ukraine has alleged that Russia has attacked Kyiv and other government buildings in Ukraine.

In September, the Ukrainian military said a Russian drone attack damaged a government building in Kyiv that is home to Ukraine’s cabinet. Plumes of smoke were seen emerging from the building. Russia said it had targeted Ukrainian military infrastructure only.

What has Russia now threatened to do?

While Russia has not outright threatened to end the peace talks, Moscow said it would realign its position in the talks.

“The diplomatic consequence will be to toughen the negotiating position of the Russian Federation,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Tuesday.

Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Maria Zakharova warned that Moscow’s response “would not be diplomatic”. Indeed, it has warned that it plans to hit back militarily but has given no details of how or when it might do this.

Will this derail the US-led peace talks?

Speaking to reporters after his “terrific” meeting with Zelenskyy on Sunday at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Palm Beach, Florida, Trump told reporters that Moscow and Kyiv were “closer than ever” to a peace deal.

But Trump has made this claim several times before. In April, Trump said Russia and Ukraine were “very close to a deal” after Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff met with Putin in Moscow.

On December 15, Trump also said Russia and Ukraine were “closer than ever” to a deal after talks in Berlin involving Zelenskyy and the leaders of France, Germany, the United Kingdom and NATO.

However, observers and analysts said the issue of territorial concessions remains a major sticking point. Trump’s 28-point peace plan for Ukraine, which he unveiled in November, involved Ukraine ceding large amounts of land that Russia has occupied during nearly four years of war. Zelenskyy has stated on numerous occasions that this is a line Ukraine will not cross.

Most analysts are sceptical that any progress has been made on this point and said the latest accusations against Ukraine will probably have little effect. “I don’t think there is anything to derail at this point,” said Marina Miron, an analyst at King’s College London.

The peace process “is not going well due to disagreements on key issues between Ukraine and Russia”, she told Al Jazeera.

“Trump has repeatedly claimed that a peace deal is close without sustainable agreement,” Keir Giles, a Russian military expert at the London think tank Chatham House, told Al Jazeera this month.

Russia has occupied nearly 20 percent of eastern Ukraine and has been slowly gaining territory as Ukraine’s military has been weakened by desertions, casualties and dwindling military aid. Moscow annexed Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula in 2014.

“It’s probably impossible that Ukrainians will voluntarily withdraw from these territories unless we will also see a withdrawal of Russian forces on the other side,” Nathalie Tocci, director at the Rome-based think tank Istituto Affari Internazionali (Institute of International Affairs), told Al Jazeera.

Giles said there are still parallel negotiation tracks, however – one involving the US and Ukraine and another between Ukraine and European nations. He added, however, that there is no clear evidence that these efforts are fully coordinated or aligned in terms of strategy.

A ceasefire between Thailand and Cambodia has come into effect after weeks of deadly fighting across the border. Al Jazeera’s Assed Baig says artillery fire has stopped but the next 72 hours will be a critical test of whether the truce holds. Hundreds of thousands of displaced civilians are hoping it lasts.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has accused Russia of using ordinary apartment blocks on the territory of its ally Belarus to attack Ukrainian targets and circumvent Kyiv’s defences.

Zelenskyy made the allegations on Friday amid revelations by intelligence experts that Moscow has likely stationed its new nuclear-capable hypersonic ballistic missiles at a former airbase in eastern Belarus – a move seen as bolstering Russia’s ability to strike targets in Europe.

“We note that the Russians are trying to bypass our defensive interceptor positions through the territory of neighbouring Belarus. This is risky for Belarus,” Zelenskyy wrote on the Telegram messaging app on Friday after a military staff meeting.

“It is unfortunate that Belarus is surrendering its sovereignty in favour of Russia’s aggressive ambitions,” the Ukrainian leader said.

Zelenskyy said Ukrainian intelligence had observed that Belarus was deploying equipment “in Belarusian settlements near the border, including on residential buildings” to assist Russian forces in carrying out their attacks.

“Antennae and other equipment are located on the roofs of ordinary five-storey apartment buildings, which help guide ‘Shaheds’ [Russian drones] to targets in our western regions,” he said.

“This is an absolute disregard for human lives, and it is important that Minsk stops playing with this,” he added.

The Russian and Belarusian defence ministries did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Russia had previously used Belarusian territory to launch its February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, and Belarus remains a steadfast ally, though President Alexander Lukashenko has pledged to commit no troops to the conflict.

Belarus defence minister: ‘Our response’ to the West’s ‘aggressive actions’

Amid reports of closer Russian and Belarusian coordination in the war on Ukraine, satellite imagery analysed by two US researchers appears to show that Moscow is stationing Oreshnik hypersonic ballistic missiles in eastern Belarus, according to an exclusive Reuters news agency report.

Oreshnik had been described by Russian President Vladimir Putin as impossible to intercept, and he previously made clear his intention to deploy the missiles – which have an estimated range of up to 5,500km (3,400 miles) – in Belarus.

Researchers Jeffrey Lewis of the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, in California, and Decker Eveleth of the CNA research and analysis organisation in Virginia, said they were 90 percent certain that mobile Oreshnik launchers would be stationed at the former Russian airbase near Krichev, some 307km (190 miles) east of the Belarus capital of Minsk.

The United States researchers said reviews of satellite imagery revealed a hurried construction project in Belarus that began between August 4 and 12, and contained features consistent with those of a Russian strategic missile base.

One “dead giveaway” in a November 19 satellite image was a “military-grade rail transfer point” enclosed by a security fence to which missiles, their mobile launchers and other components could be delivered by train to the site, Eveleth told Reuters.

Another feature, said Lewis, was the construction of a concrete pad that was then covered with earth, and which he called “consistent” with a camouflaged missile launch point.

The researchers’ assessment broadly aligns with US intelligence findings, according to the report.

Russia and Belarus have yet to comment on the Reuters report.

But, earlier this month, President Lukashenko acknowledged the deployment of such weapons in his country, although he did not say to which part of the country the Russian missiles have been deployed. He added that up to 10 Oreshniks would be deployed within the country.

State-run BelTA news agency quoted Belarusian Defence Minister Viktor Khrenin as saying this week that the Oreshnik’s deployment would not alter the balance of power in Europe and was “our response” to the West’s “aggressive actions”.

The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the reported Russian missile deployment to Belarus.

Ukraine’s capital came under a new “massive” Russian attack early on Saturday, with explosions reported in the city, air defences in operation and the Ukrainian military saying cruise and ballistic missiles were being deployed.

On Sunday, President Zelenskyy is scheduled to meet with US President Donald Trump to finalise a possible ceasefire deal between Moscow and Kyiv.

In advance of the meeting, Zelenskyy told the Axios news site that he was open to putting the Washington-led “20-point” peace plan to a referendum – as long as Russia agreed to a 60-day ceasefire to allow Ukraine to prepare for and hold such a vote.

Ukrainian president highlights ‘significant progress’ in talks, but Moscow says Kyiv is working to ‘torpedo’ deal.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is to meet with his United States counterpart, Donald Trump, in Florida on Sunday to discuss territorial disputes that continue to block progress towards ending Russia’s war on Ukraine.

Announcing the meeting on Friday, Zelenskyy said the talks could be decisive as Washington intensifies its efforts to broker an end to Europe’s deadliest conflict since World War II. “A lot can be decided before the New Year,” Zelenskyy said.

Territory remains the most contentious issue in the negotiations. Zelenskyy confirmed he would raise the status of eastern Ukraine and the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, which has been under Russian control since the early months of Russia’s invasion.

“As for the sensitive issues, we will discuss both Donbas and the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. We will certainly discuss other issues as well,” he told reporters in a WhatsApp chat.

Moscow has demanded that Kyiv withdraw from parts of the Donetsk region still under Ukrainian control as it pushes for full authority over the wider Donbas area, which includes Donetsk and Luhansk. Ukraine has rejected that demand, instead calling for an immediate halt to hostilities along the existing front lines.

Territorial concessions

In an attempt to bridge the divide, the US has floated the idea of establishing a free economic zone should Ukraine relinquish control of the contested area although details of how such a plan would operate remain unclear.

Zelenskyy reiterated that any territorial concessions would require public approval. He said decisions on land must be made by Ukrainians themselves, potentially through a referendum.

Beyond territory, Zelenskyy said his meeting with Trump would focus on refining draft agreements, including economic arrangements and security guarantees. He said a security pact with Washington was nearly finalised while a 20-point peace framework was close to completion.

Ukraine has sought binding guarantees after previous international commitments failed to prevent Russia’s invasion, which began in February 2022.

Trump has previously voiced impatience with the pace of negotiations, but he has indicated he would engage directly if talks reached a meaningful stage.

Last week, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said his country is the only mediator that can speak to both sides to secure a peace agreement. At the same time, he downplayed the importance of the conflict for Washington.

“It’s not our war. It’s a war on another continent,” he said.

Zelenskyy said European leaders could join Sunday’s discussions remotely and confirmed he had already briefed Finnish President Alexander Stubb on what he described as “significant progress”.

Despite Zelenskyy’s assertion, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov accused Ukraine of working to “torpedo” the peace talks, saying a revised version of the US peace plan promoted by Kyiv was “radically different” from an earlier version negotiated with Washington.

“Our ability to make the final push and reach an agreement will depend on our own work and the political will of the other party,” he said during a television interview on Friday.

Ryabkov said any agreement must remain within the parameters set out between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin during a summit in August, which Ukraine and European partners have criticised as overly conciliatory towards Russia’s war aims.

On the ground, Moscow has intensified strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and the southern port city of Odesa while an attack on Kharkiv on Friday killed two people.

The incident is the third of its kind in recent weeks in which Tajik border guards and civilians have been killed.

Five people have been killed in a firefight between border guards and intruders on Tajikistan‘s border with Afghanistan, the Tajik border protection agency says.

Heavily armed raiders from Afghanistan crossed into Tajikistan at the village of Kavo in the Shamsiddin Shokhin district on Tuesday and were located on Wednesday, according to a statement by the border agency published by Tajik news agency Khovar.

The border agency said the men attacked a guard post, killing two border guards, and three of the intruders died in the ensuing gun battle.

The agency said the incident was the third of its kind in recent weeks in which Tajik border guards and civilians were killed.

The border guards secured the weapons and ammunition used by the intruders, including grenades, three M-16 rifles, a Kalashnikov assault rifle, three foreign-made pistols with silencers, 10 hand grenades, a night-vision scope, explosives and other ammunition at the scene, the agency said.

“The terrorists refused to obey orders from Tajik border guards to surrender and offered armed resistance. They intended to carry out an armed attack on one of the border posts of the Border Troops of the State Committee for National Security of the Republic of Tajikistan,” the statement said.

Chinese citizens working for a mining company in the region have also been among those killed.

The latest incident demonstrated “the Taliban government’s failure to fulfil their international obligations and repeated commitments to ensuring security and stability along the state border with the Republic of Tajikistan and to combating members of terrorist organisations, reflecting serious and recurring irresponsibility”, the statement added.

It agency said that it expected an apology from the Afghan leadership.

Tajikistan will defend its territorial integrity against “terrorists and smugglers” by all means, it added.

Afghanistan has not yet commented on the incident.

Drugs from Afghanistan are smuggled into Central Asia across the largely unsecured 1,340km (830-mile) border. Russian forces are stationed in Tajikistan and have in the past participated in joint exercises with Tajik forces to help secure the border.

When Qatar helped secure a peace deal to end ongoing conflict between the M23 rebel group and Democratic Republic of the Congo’s (DRC) government last month, there was hope among many Congolese that a permanent ceasefire would soon emerge to end the fighting that has uprooted close to a million people in the country’s troubled east, and give war-racked communities some respite as the new year rolls in.

Since late 2021, the group, which the United States and the United Nations say is backed by Rwanda, has clashed with the Congolese army in heavy offensives that have killed at least 7,000 people this year alone. Several regional attempts at resolution have failed. Still, when M23 representatives and Congolese government officials met for negotiations in Doha and proceeded to sign a peace deal in November, exhausted Congolese dared to hope. This deal, some reckoned, could be different.

So when the rebels launched yet another offensive and temporarily seized the strategic city Uvira this month, hopes for lasting peace were painfully crushed, as some concluded that those at the helm of the talks were playing politics.

“It’s clear that they don’t have any will to end this conflict,” Congolese lawyer and political analyst Hubert Masomera told Al Jazeera from the M23-held eastern city of Goma, blaming both sides. “Despite the number of deaths and the extent of the destruction, there is still procrastination over the implementation of the peace agreements and compliance with the ceasefire. People here feel abandoned to their sad fate.”

Fears that the conflict will not only continue, but that it could soon take on a regional dimension, are deepening, too – a sensitive prospect in a DRC where two civil wars in the past were prompted by its neighbours.

Uvira, the newly captured city the rebels then withdrew from as a “trust-building measure” following US pressure last week, is a major transport and economic hub in the huge South Kivu province. It’s strategically located on the border with Rwanda and is just 30 kilometres from the Burundian capital, Bujumbura. The city was the last eastern stronghold of the Congolese army and its allies – local “Wazalendo” militias and about 3,000 Burundian soldiers. Early this year, M23 also seized control of South Kivu’s capital city, Bukavu, as well as Goma, the capital of North Kivu province.

Experts say M23’s advance on Uvira widens the group’s area of control significantly, puts it at the mouth of the mineral-rich Katanga region, and positions Rwandan proxies right at Burundi’s doorstep at a time when both governments are ramping up a war of words and accusing each other of backing rebels.

Rwanda, for its part, continues to distance itself from accusations that it backs M23.

DRC conflict’s complex history

The recent scenes in eastern DRC appear like an eerie playback of a tragic tale, conflict monitors say.

Similar peace negotiations in late 2024, led by the African Union and Angola, seemed ready to deliver peace ahead of a new year. But they collapsed after a highly anticipated meeting between the presidents of Rwanda and DRC was called off. Both sides accused each other of foiling the talks.

“There’s a sense of deja vu,” Nicodemus Minde, East Africa analyst at the Institute for Security Studies (ISS), said. “It’s symbolic because we were exactly here last year … the prospects for peace are dire.”

Conflict in the DRC has long been mired in a complex mix of ethnic grievances, poor governance and interference from its much smaller neighbours. It goes back to the 1994 genocide of Tutsis and moderate Hutus in Rwanda, which displaced millions into neighbouring eastern DRC, making them a minority there. Rwanda has since viewed the DRC as a hiding place for Hutu genocidaires, however, and its hot pursuit of them toppled a government in Kinshasa and led to the first and second Congo wars (1996-2003). The UN also accused the Rwandan and allied Ugandan forces of looting the DRC’s vast mineral wealth, including gold, coltan and tin, during the conflict.

Scores of militias emerged as governments armed and counter-armed civilians in the wars, many of which are still active in the DRC. The M23 itself is only the latest iteration of a Tutsi militia that fought in the Congo wars, and whose fighters integrated into the DRC army. In 2012, these fighters revolted, complaining of poor treatment by the Congolese forces. Now, the M23 claims to be fighting the marginalisation of ethnic Tutsis, some of whom say they are systematically denied citizenship, among other complaints. The M23 and its allied Congo River Alliance (AFC) have not stated goals of taking Kinshasa, even though members of the group have at times threatened to advance on the capital. Officially, the rebels claim to be “liberating” eastern DRC communities.

In 2012, M23 initially emerged with enough force to take the strategic city of Goma, but was forced back within a year by Congolese forces and a special UN intervention force of troops from South Africa, Tanzania and Malawi. When the M23 resurfaced in late 2021, though, it was with much more ferocity, boosted by about 4,000 Rwandan troops in addition to its own 6,000 fighters, according to the UN. Lightning and intensely bloody offensives have since seen it control vast swaths of territory, including the major cities of Goma, Bukavu – and now, Uvira.

On the map, M23 appears to be eking out a slice of Congolese territory wedged between the DRC and neighbouring Rwanda, Uganda and Burundi. If it gains control of the two Kivus in their entirety, it would lord over a resource-rich area five times Rwanda’s size with easy access to Kigali and Kampala.

“They are trying to create some sort of buffer zone which the neighbouring countries, particularly Rwanda but also Uganda, have an interest in controlling,” analyst Paul-Simon Handy, also of the ISS, told Al Jazeera.

Kigali officially denies backing M23, but justifies its actions based on accusations that the DRC supports a Hutu rebel group, the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR). The FDLR did exist for many years in the DRC, but it simply no longer poses a significant threat to Kigali, analyst Minde said.

Rwanda’s tensions with Burundi have similar historic correlations, as Hutus who perpetrated the 1994 genocide similarly fled there, and Kigali alleges the government continues to back rebels. In 2015, Burundi accused Rwanda of sponsoring an abortive coup in Bujumbura. Kigali denies this.

Does the US deal have a chance?

Several African countries have attempted to help solve the crisis, militarily and diplomatically, but all have failed. The regional bloc, the East African Community, of which the DRC is a part, deployed about 6,500 Kenyan-led peacekeepers to stabilise eastern DRC, as Kenyan diplomats developed a Nairobi Peace Process in 2022 that was meant to see several rebel groups agree to a truce. The agreement collapsed only a year later, however, after Congolese President Felix Tshisekedi grew frustrated over the force’s refusal to launch offensives against M23.

Then, the Southern African Development Community (SADC), of which the massive DRC is also a part, deployed troops from South Africa, Tanzania and Malawi in May 2023. There was hope that the trio, which proved crucial in driving back the first M23 insurrection, would again record success. They appeared no match for the new M23, though, and withdrew this June.

Meanwhile, the Angola-led Luanda Peace Process collapsed after President Joao Lourenco stepped back in March, citing frustration with both sides amid constant finger-pointing.

Qatar and the US stepped in to broker peace in June this year, using a unique two-pronged approach. The Doha peace talks, on the one hand, have focused on negotiations between the DRC and M23, while the Washington talks focus on the DRC and the Rwanda governments. Some experts warned that Washington’s motivation – aside from President Donald Trump’s fixation on being a global peacemaker figure – was a clause in the deal that guarantees US extraction of rare earth minerals from both countries. The agreement was unlikely to hold on that basis, rights groups said.

After a few no-shows and wobbles, the M23 finally agreed to the Doha framework on November 15. The agreement includes eight implementation protocols, including one on ceasefire monitoring and another on prisoner exchange. On December 4, President Trump sat next to a smiling Paul Kagame and Tshisekedi as all three signed the US-peace deal in Washington, which mandated both Rwanda and DRC to stop supporting armed groups. There were pockets of fighting as the signatures were penned, but all was supposed to be largely peaceful from then on.

What happened in Uvira barely a week after was the opposite. The Congolese government said at least 400 people were killed and 200,000 others displaced as M23 fighters pressed on the city. Thousands more were displaced into Burundi, which already homes some 200,000 Congolese refugees. Fleeing Uvira residents shared accounts of bombed villages, summary killings and widespread sexual violence by both sides, according to medical group Doctors Without Borders (MSF).

Is there hope for peace?

Even though M23 began withdrawing from Uvira on Thursday, analysts are still scrambling to understand what the group was hoping to achieve by taking the city, shattering the peace agreements and angering Washington.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio directly scolded Rwanda after Uvira’s capture, saying Kigali had violated the deal. Last week, Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau met with DRC Foreign Minister Therese Kayikwamba Wagner in Washington and promised that the US “is prepared to take action to enforce adherence” from Rwanda.

What that action looks like is unclear, but what’s certain, Minde said, was that the agreement seemed to favour Kigali more than Kinshasa.

“If you look at the agreement, the consequences [of either party breaching] were not forthright, and this points to the weakness of the deal,” he said, adding that there is much more at stake for DRC if there is a breach, including escalating conflict and mass displacement within the country. But that was not taken into account, the analyst explained.

Uvira’s fall, albeit on hold, is not only a blow to Trump’s peacemaker reputation but also sharpens tensions between Burundi and Rwanda, with analysts saying it could lead to direct clashes.

Bujumbura accuses Kigali of supporting the antigovernment Red Tabara rebels – a charge Rwanda and the rebels deny – and tensions between the two governments have led to border closures since last year. Last week, M23 announced that it captured hundreds of Burundian soldiers during the Uvira offensive.

Fears of a regional spillover also prompted the UN Security Council to extend the mandate of the MONUSCO peacekeeping mission for a year, ahead of its December 20 expiration. The 11,000 troop force has been in place since 1999, but has a complicated relationship with the DRC government, which says it has not done enough to protect civilians. MONUSCO forces initially began withdrawing in 2024, but then paused that move in July amid the escalating M23 offensive. Ituri, the force’s headquarters, is held by M23, meaning the troops are unable to do much.

Amid the chaos, the finger pointing, and the political games, it’s the Congolese people who are feeling the most despair at the turn of events so close to the new year, analysts say. After more than three decades of war that has turned the green, undulating hills of eastern DRC into a perpetual battlefield, Masameko in Goma said it’s locals, more than anyone else, with the most at stake.

“People have suffered enough and need to breathe, to sleep with the certainty that they will wake up tomorrow,” he said. “[They need] to live in their homes without fear of a bomb falling on them. That is all the people in this part of the republic need.”

Planned talks come as Southeast Asian leaders urge both countries to show ‘maximum restraint’ and return to dialogue.

Thailand and Cambodia have agreed to hold a meeting of defence officials later this week as regional leaders push for an end to deadly violence along the two countries’ shared border.

Thailand’s Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow announced the planned talks on Monday after a special meeting in Kuala Lumpur of Southeast Asian foreign ministers, who were trying to salvage a ceasefire.

That truce was first brokered by Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) chair Malaysia and United States President Donald Trump after cross-border fighting broke out in July.

Sihasak told reporters that this week’s discussions would be held on Wednesday in Thailand’s Chanthaburi, within the framework of an existing bilateral border committee.

But just hours after the regional crisis talks were held in Malaysia, Cambodia’s Ministry of Defence said the Thai military deployed fighter jets to bomb areas of Siem Reap and Preah Vihear provinces.

The Thai army said Cambodia had fired dozens of rockets into Thailand, with Bangkok’s air force responding with air strikes on two Cambodian military targets.

Thailand and Cambodia have engaged in daily exchanges of rocket and artillery fire along their 817km (508-mile) land border following the collapse of the truce, with fighting at multiple points stretching from forested regions near Laos to the coastal provinces of the Gulf of Thailand.

Despite the cross-border fire, Cambodia’s Ministry of Interior said it remains “optimistic that the Thai side will demonstrate sincerity” in implementing a ceasefire.

Thailand’s Sihasak, however, cautioned that the upcoming meeting may not immediately produce a truce. “Our position is a ceasefire does not come with an announcement, but must come from actions,” he said.

His ministry said the two nations’ militaries would “discuss implementation, related steps and verification of the ceasefire in detail”.

The planned meeting comes as ASEAN on Monday urged both countries to show “maximum restraint and take immediate steps towards the cessation of all forms of hostilities”.

In a statement after the talks in Kuala Lumpur, ASEAN also called on both Thailand and Cambodia to “restore mutual trust and confidence, and to return to dialogue”.

ASEAN members also reiterated their concerns over the ongoing conflict and “called upon both parties to ensure that civilians residing in the affected border areas are able to return, without obstruction and in safety and dignity, to their homes”.

Deadly Israeli air strike is latest in Israel’s near-daily violations of 2024 ceasefire agreement with Hezbollah.

At least three people have been killed in an Israeli attack near the southern Lebanese city of Sidon, the country’s National News Agency (NNA) is reporting, in the latest Israeli breach of a ceasefire agreement with Hezbollah.

Lebanon’s Ministry of Health said on Monday that the three people were killed in an Israeli air strike on a vehicle on Quneitra Road in the southern Sidon district, according to NNA.

The Israeli military said in a statement that it had targeted Hezbollah members in the Sidon area, without providing further details.

The deadly strikes come a day after another Israeli attack on southern Lebanon on Sunday killed one person and wounded two others. The Israeli army said it killed a Hezbollah member in that attack.

Israel has repeatedly violated the November 2024 ceasefire agreement with the Lebanese group, carrying out near-daily attacks across Lebanon, particularly in the south, that have drawn widespread condemnation.

Between January and late November, Israeli forces carried out nearly 1,600 strikes across Lebanon, according to data compiled by the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED).

Late last month, the United Nations said at least 127 civilians had been killed in Israeli attacks on Lebanon since the ceasefire took effect, prompting a call from the United Nations human rights office for a “prompt and impartial” investigation.

Delegations meet in southern Lebanon

Israel’s attacks have continued despite the November 2024 ceasefire agreement, which includes provisions for Hezbollah’s disarmament in parts of southern Lebanon and the withdrawal of Israeli forces.

On Saturday, Prime Minister Nawaf Salam said Lebanon was close to completing the disarmament of Hezbollah in the area south of the Litani River.

That is a key provision of UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which designates the zone between the Litani River and the Israeli border as an area where only the Lebanese army and UN peacekeepers are permitted to operate.

Hezbollah has long rejected calls for full disarmament, saying its weapons are necessary to defend Lebanon against Israeli attacks and occupation.

Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem has consistently said the group will end its military presence south of the Litani River in line with the ceasefire, but insists it will retain its weapons elsewhere in Lebanon.

Under the 2024 ceasefire agreement, Israeli forces were also required to withdraw fully from southern Lebanon, south of the Litani River, by January. But Israeli troops have only partially pulled back and continue to maintain a military presence at five border outposts inside Lebanese territory.

Hezbollah officials have previously said the group would not fully implement its commitments under the ceasefire while Israeli forces remain deployed in southern Lebanon.

Meanwhile, a committee overseeing the ceasefire agreement continues to hold talks in southern Lebanon as Israel and the United States increase pressure on Hezbollah to disarm.

Civilian and military delegations from Israel and Lebanon met in the southern town of Naqoura on Friday in closed-door discussions.

Following the talks, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun met with diplomat Simon Karam, who has been appointed as Lebanon’s chief civilian negotiator.

Hezbollah has been critical of the appointment of Karam, who has previously served as the ambassador of Lebanon to the US.

In a statement, the Lebanese presidency said Aoun stressed that enabling tens of thousands of displaced Lebanese civilians to return to their villages and homes was “an entry point for addressing all other details” of the agreement.

Aoun said the committee’s next meeting is scheduled for January 7.

He also welcomed a separate diplomatic agreement reached in Paris between the US, France and Saudi Arabia to organise an international conference in early 2026 to support the Lebanese army and internal security forces.

Fighting has resumed hours before the countries’ foreign ministers meet in Malaysia to discuss steps to de-escalate hostilities.

Ukrainian military successes and Russian narratives clashed this week, as Moscow’s assertion of inevitable victory flew in the face of facts on the ground.

Ukraine steadily took back control of almost all of its northern city of Kupiansk after isolating Russian forces within it, belying Russian claims to have seized it.

Russian forces were also unable to dislodge Ukrainian defenders from the eastern city of Pokrovsk to back up Moscow’s claims of total control.

And Moscow attempted to deny Ukraine’s successful use of an underwater unmanned vehicle to severely damage a Kilo-class submarine, despite visual evidence.

Ukrainian forces operating in the northern Kharkiv region said they had cut Russian logistics to Kupiansk, surrounded a vanguard of 200 Russians inside it, and cleared Russian forces out of forests north of the city on December 12.

Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian forces advancing in the city the following day and taking back the southern suburb of Yuvileynyi, pushing Russian troops to the northern and western suburbs.

The Russian position had become more precarious by Monday. Ukrainian forces said they prevented reinforcements from entering the city through a gas pipeline, a tactic Russia had used in the siege of Chasiv Yar, and the isolated Russian troops were being supplied solely by drone. Ukraine’s General Staff said its forces were still repelling Russian attacks on Friday.

Russia’s Ministry of Defence insisted it had control of the situation. “Units of the Zapad Group of Forces exercise reliable control over all districts of liberated Kupiansk,” it said on Monday, claiming that Ukraine’s efforts to enter the city from the south were being suppressed.

“The only thing that can be said for sure is that the Russian Armed Forces are still holding part of the centre and north of Kupiansk, but most of it is already either in the grey zone or under the control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine,” wrote a Russian military reporter on the Telegram messaging app.

On Wednesday this week, Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskii, Ukraine’s Army commander-in-chief, told a Ramstein-format of Ukraine’s allies that his forces had taken back 90 percent of Kupiansk. At the same time in Moscow, Russian Defence Minister Andrei Belousov was telling Russian President Vladimir Putin that “the enemy is unsuccessfully trying to regain” the city.

“The Russian Defense Minister, Belousov, continues to lie that Russia controls Kupiansk,” wrote Andrii Kovalenko, head of Ukraine’s Center for Countering Disinformation, on Telegram. “In reality, most of the city is controlled by the Ukrainian Defense Forces, which are continuing to clear it of Russians. However, all of Putin’s officials, from [commander-in-chief Valery] Gerasimov, who was the first to lie about controlling the city, to Belousov, continue to lie in the presence of Putin himself.”

Contrary to the available evidence, Belousov also insisted that Russia had seized Pokrovsk, which Russia calls Krasnoarmeysk, and was on the cusp of vanquishing neighbouring Myrnohrad, which Russia calls Dimitrov. Both towns are in the eastern Donetsk region, and are almost surrounded by Russian forces to the north, south and east.

“Russian soldiers continue to inflict fire damage on Ukrainian troops in Dimitrov, the last stronghold of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Krasnoarmeysk agglomeration,” Belousov told Putin.

But Syrskii told allies that Ukrainian forces had regained about 16 square kilometres (6 square miles) in the northern part of Pokrovsk and 56sq km (22sq miles) west of the city. “Logistics in Myrnograd are complex, but the operations continue,” he wrote.

Russia had claimed complete control over Pokrovsk on December 2 and was sticking to its story.

Submarine and oil refinery explosions

A third point of contention was Ukraine’s successful use of an underwater unmanned vehicle (UUV) to strike a Russian Kilo-class submarine on Monday (December 15), in what is considered the first such attack in military history.

Video of the Russian fleet at anchor in the port of Novorossiysk on the Black Sea shows a huge explosion in the stern section of the submarine.

Ukraine’s State Security Service later claimed credit for the attack.

However, Russia’s Defence Ministry said: “Not a single ship or submarine as well as the crews of the Black Sea Fleet stationed in the bay of the Novorossiysk naval base were damaged as a result of the sabotage.”

The ministry published footage of what it said was the attacked submarine, in which it appeared undamaged above the surface, but the video did not show the stern section.

Ukraine’s long-range strikes against Russia scored other successes, on which Russia did not comment.

Ukraine struck the oil refinery in Yaroslavl, northeast of Moscow, on December 12. On Sunday, Ukrainian drones struck the Afipsky refinery in Krasnodar Krai and the Uryupinsk oil depot in Volgograd, causing explosions in both locations. They also struck the Dorogobuzhskaya power plant in Smolensk.

United States and Ukrainian negotiating teams met for two days in Berlin on Sunday and Monday. Russian officials said they would be briefed next week on the results of those talks.

But even as it claimed to be interested in ongoing peace negotiations, Russia clearly signalled that it plans to continue aggressive operations next year.

“The key task for the next year is to maintain and increase the pace of the offensive,” said Belousov in Putin’s presence on Wednesday, at an expanded meeting of the Defence Ministry Board.

“It wasn’t us who started the war in 2022; it was the destructive forces in Ukraine, with the support of the West – essentially, the West itself that unleashed this war,” Putin said. “We are only trying to finish it, to put an end to it.”

Putin said “the goals of the special military operation will certainly be achieved,” and “Russia will achieve the liberation of its historical lands by military means,” suggesting there was little room for compromise on Moscow’s side.

Putin’s Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov signalled the same thing in an interview with ABC on Tuesday. He said Europe and Ukraine expected a “deep and very wrong” revision of Russian peace proposals, and ruled out conceding seized Ukrainian land.

“We are not able in any form to compromise on this, because it would be, in our view, a revision of a very fundamental element of our statehood, set forth through our constitution,” Naryshkin said.

Russian losses outpace recruitments

Russia has attempted to give the impression that it has inexhaustible manpower with which to prosecute the war it started in Ukraine.

Belousov said almost 410,000 Russians volunteered for military service, exceeding expectations for 2025.

That translates to 32,800 per month. “Data from the Ukrainian General Staff on Russian losses indicate that Russian forces suffered an average of 34,600 casualties per month between January and November 2025 – suggesting that Belousov’s recruitment numbers are not quite replacing Russian losses,” wrote the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy suggested most of these casualties were deaths. “[Putin] spends around 30,000 soldiers’ lives on the front every month. Not wounded – 30,000 killed each month… We have drone footage confirming these deaths,” he told Dutch parliamentarians.

Syrski also doubted Russian recruitment quotas were sufficient.

“The number of Russian troops has long been around 710,000,” he wrote on Telegram. “However, the enemy has not been able to increase this figure, despite active recruitment in Russia, because our soldiers are ‘reducing’ the number of occupiers by a thousand every day through deaths and injuries.”

Despite Trump claim of ceasefire, no end on horizon to latest round of conflict recently reignited by border skirmish.

Cambodia’s defence ministry has accused Thailand’s military of bombing the casino hub of Poipet, a major land crossing between the two nations, which are engaged in renewed clashes along their border.

The ministry said in a statement on Thursday that Thai forces had “dropped 2 bombs” in the municipality of Poipet, located in the northwestern province of Banteay Meanchey, at about 11am (04:00 GMT) that morning.

At the time of reporting, Thailand had not yet confirmed the strike on the bustling casino hub, which is popular with Thai gamblers.

The interior ministry said this week that at least four casinos in Cambodia have been damaged by Thai strikes.

Renewed fighting between the Southeast Asian neighbours this month has killed at least 21 people in Thailand and 17 in Cambodia, while displacing about 800,000, officials said.

Thailand said on Tuesday that between 5,000 and 6,000 Thai nationals remained stranded in Poipet after Cambodia closed its land border crossings with its neighbour.

Cambodia’s interior ministry said the border closures were a “necessary measure” to reduce risks to civilians amid the ongoing combat, adding that air travel remained an option for those seeking to leave.

Truce denial

Five days of fighting between Cambodia and Thailand in July killed dozens of people before a truce was brokered by the United States, China and Malaysia, and then broken within months.

United States President Donald Trump, who has repeatedly intervened in the longstanding conflict this year, claimed last week that the two countries had agreed to a new ceasefire.

But Bangkok denied any truce had been agreed upon, and fighting with artillery, tanks, drones and jets has continued daily since a border skirmish earlier this month caused the latest round of conflict.

The conflict stems from a territorial dispute over the colonial-era demarcation of their 800km (500-mile) border and a smattering of ancient temple ruins situated on the frontier.

Each side has blamed the other for instigating the renewed fighting, claiming self-defence, while trading accusations of attacks on civilians.

China said it was sending its special envoy for Asian affairs to Cambodia and Thailand on Thursday for a “shuttle-diplomacy trip” to help bridge the gaps and “rebuild peace”.