Border Disputes

Tigray was the centre of a devastating two-year war that pitted the TPLF against Ethiopia’s federal army.

Ethiopia’s Afar region has accused forces from neighbouring Tigray of crossing into its territory, seizing several villages and attacking civilians, in what it called a breach of the 2022 peace deal that ended the war in northern Ethiopia.

Between 2020 and 2022, Tigray was the centre of a devastating two-year war that pitted the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) against Ethiopia’s federal army and left at least 600,000 people dead, according to the African Union.

In a statement released late on Wednesday, Afar authorities said TPLF fighters “entered Afar territory by force today”.

The group, which governs the Tigray region, was accused of “controlling six villages and bombing civilians with mortars”. Officials did not provide details on casualties.

“The TPLF learns nothing from its mistakes,” the Afar administration said, condemning what it described as “acts of terror”.

The conflict earlier this decade also spread into neighbouring Ethiopian regions, including Afar, whose forces fought alongside federal troops.

According to Afar’s latest statement, Tigrayan forces attacked the Megale district in the northwest of the region “with heavy weapons fire on civilian herders”.

The authorities warned that if the TPLF “does not immediately cease its actions, the Afar Regional Administration will assume its defensive duty to protect itself against any external attack”.

The renewed fighting, they said, “openly destroys the Pretoria peace agreement”, referring to the deal signed in November 2022 between Ethiopia’s federal government and Tigrayan leaders, which ended two years of bloodshed.

While the fragile peace had largely held, tensions between Addis Ababa and the TPLF have deepened in recent months. The party, which dominated Ethiopian politics from 1991 to 2018, was officially removed from the country’s list of political parties in May amid internal divisions and growing mistrust from the federal government.

Federal officials have also accused the TPLF of re-establishing ties with neighbouring Eritrea, a country with a long and uneasy history with Ethiopia. Eritrea, once an Italian colony and later an Ethiopian province, fought a bloody independence war before gaining statehood in 1993.

A subsequent border war between the two nations from 1998 to 2000 killed tens of thousands. When Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed came to power in 2018, he signed a landmark peace deal with Eritrea, but relations have soured again since the end of the Tigray conflict.

China has frequently accused the Philippines of acting as a ‘troublemaker’ and ‘saboteur of regional stability’.

The Philippines and Canada have signed a defence pact to expand joint military drills and deepen security cooperation in a move widely seen as a response to China’s growing assertiveness in the region, most notably in the disputed South China Sea.

Philippine Defence Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jr and Canadian Defence Minister David McGuinty inked the Status of Visiting Forces Agreement (SOVFA) on Sunday after a closed-door meeting in Manila.

McGuinty said the deal would strengthen joint training, information sharing, and coordination during humanitarian crises and natural disasters.

Teodoro described the pact as vital for upholding what he called a rules-based international order in the Asia-Pacific, where he accused China of expansionism. “Who is hegemonic? Who wants to expand their territory in the world? China,” he told reporters.

The agreement provides the legal framework for Canadian troops to take part in military exercises in the Philippines and vice versa. It mirrors similar accords Manila has signed with the United States, Australia, Japan and New Zealand.

China has not yet commented on the deal, but it has frequently accused the Philippines of being a “troublemaker” and “saboteur of regional stability” after joint patrols and military exercises with its Western allies in the South China Sea.

Beijing claims almost the entire waterway, a vital global shipping lane, thereby ignoring a 2016 international tribunal ruling that dismissed its territorial claims as unlawful. Chinese coastguard vessels have repeatedly used water cannon and blocking tactics against Philippine ships, leading to collisions and injuries.

Teodoro used a regional defence ministers meeting in Malaysia over the weekend to condemn China’s declaration of a “nature reserve” around the contested Scarborough Shoal, which Manila also claims.

“This, to us, is a veiled attempt to wield military might and the threat of force, undermining the rights of smaller countries and their citizens who rely on the bounty of these waters,” he said.

Talks are under way by the Philippines for similar defence agreements with France, Singapore, Britain, Germany and India as Manila continues to fortify its defence partnerships amid rising tensions with Beijing.

Thousands of Moroccans filled the streets of Rabat singing and waving flags after the UN Security Council adopted a resolution describing autonomy for Western Sahara under Moroccan sovereignty as the most feasible solution to the decades-long territorial dispute. The US-drafted text provides international endorsement of Morocco in its dispute with the Algeria-backed Polisario Front.

Fighting comes as Taliban submits proposal at Pakistan-Afghanistan talks in Turkiye, while Islamabad warns of ‘open war’ if deal fails.

Fresh clashes near the border with Afghanistan have killed at least five Pakistani soldiers and 25 fighters, Pakistan’s army says, even as the two countries hold peace talks in Istanbul.

The Pakistani military said armed men attempted to cross from Afghanistan into Kurram and North Waziristan on Friday and Saturday, accusing the Taliban authorities of failing to act against armed groups operating from Afghan territory.

It said on Sunday that the attempted infiltrations raised questions over Kabul’s commitment to tackling “terrorism emanating from its soil”.

Afghanistan’s Taliban government has not commented on the latest clashes, but has repeatedly rejected accusations of harbouring armed fighters and instead accuses Pakistan of violating Afghan sovereignty with air strikes.

Delegations from both countries arrived in Istanbul, Turkiye on Saturday for talks aimed at preventing a return to full-scale conflict. The meeting comes days after Qatar and Turkiye brokered a ceasefire in Doha to halt the most serious border fighting since the Taliban takeover of Kabul in 2021.

The violence earlier this month killed dozens and wounded hundreds.

‘Open war’

Pakistan’s Defense Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif said the ceasefire remains intact and that Kabul appears interested in peace, but warned that failure in Istanbul would leave Islamabad with “open war” as an option.

Pakistan’s military described those involved in the weekend infiltrations as members of what it calls “Fitna al-Khwarij”, a term it uses for ideologically motivated armed groups allegedly backed by foreign sponsors.

United States President Donald Trump also weighed in on Sunday, saying he would “solve the Afghanistan-Pakistan crisis very quickly”, telling reporters on the sidelines of the ASEAN Summit in Malaysia that he had been briefed on the ongoing talks.

Separately, Taliban-controlled broadcaster RTA said on Sunday that Kabul’s delegation in Turkiye had submitted a proposal after more than 15 hours of discussions, calling for Pakistan to end cross-border strikes and block any “anti-Afghan group” from using its territory.

The Afghan side also signalled openness to a four-party monitoring mechanism to supervise the ceasefire and investigate violations.

Afghanistan’s delegation is led by Deputy Interior Minister Haji Najib. Pakistan has not publicly disclosed its representatives.

Analysts expect the core of the talks to revolve around intelligence-sharing, allowing Islamabad to hand over coordinates of suspected Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) fighters for the Taliban to take direct action, instead of Pakistan launching its own strikes.

Commercial flights between the countries to restart as diplomatic thaw eases tensions over border clashes.

State-backed China Eastern Airlines will resume Shanghai-Delhi flights from November 9, the airline’s website shows, as China and India resume direct air links amid a diplomatic thaw, largely triggered by aggressive United States trade policies, after a five-year freeze.

The flights will operate three times a week on Wednesdays, Saturdays and Sundays, the airline’s online ticket sales platform showed on Saturday.

China Eastern Airlines did not immediately respond to the Reuters news agency’s emailed request for comment.

India’s foreign ministry said earlier this month that commercial flights between the two neighbouring countries would restart after a five-year freeze.

The announcement followed Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s first visit to China in more than seven years, for a summit meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation regional security bloc. The two sides discussed ways to improve trade ties, while Modi raised concerns about India’s burgeoning bilateral trade deficit.

India and China’s foreign ministries did not immediately respond to requests for comment on the Shanghai-Delhi flights.

India’s largest carrier, IndiGo, previously announced it would start daily nonstop flights between Kolkata and Guangzhou.

State-backed Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport said at the time of the IndiGo announcement that it would encourage airlines to open more direct routes, such as between Guangzhou and Delhi.

Direct flights between the two countries were suspended during the COVID pandemic in 2020 and did not resume after deadly clashes along their Himalayan border led to a prolonged military stand-off later that year.

Four Chinese soldiers and 20 Indian soldiers were killed in the worst violence between the neighbours in decades.

India and China’s diplomatic thaw comes amid US President Donald Trump’s increasingly belligerent trade polices.

The US president raised the tariff rate on Indian imports to a stiff 50 percent in September, citing the nation’s continuing purchases of Russian oil.

He also urged the European Union to impose 100 percent tariffs on China and India, ostensibly as part of his efforts to pressure Moscow to end its war in Ukraine.

After days of cross-border fighting, Pakistan and Afghan Taliban authorities agreed a temporary ceasefire. The clashes have left dozens dead and injured. So, what’s behind the worst violence between the countries in years?

Taliban officials say overnight cross-border attacks resulted in killing of 58 Pakistani soldiers; Islamabad says 19 border posts captured.

Latest move underscores efforts to normalise ties and draw closer in wake of Trump’s policies, stiff tariffs.

India and China plan to resume direct flights this month between some of their cities after a five-year suspension as relations between the two countries begin to thaw, Indian authorities have announced.

The closer ties come in the face of the United States President Donald Trump administration’s aggressive trade policies.

Direct flights between the two countries were suspended during the COVID pandemic in 2020 and did not resume as Beijing and New Delhi engaged in prolonged border tensions.

On Thursday, India’s embassy to China said in a post on social media platform WeChat that flights between designated cities will resume by late October, subject to commercial carriers’ decisions.

The resumption is part of the Indian government’s “approach towards gradual normalization of relations between India and China,” the embassy added.

India’s largest carrier IndiGo announced on Thursday that it would resume flights from Kolkata, India, to Guangzhou, China, from October 26.

The resumption comes after Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited China for the first time in seven years to attend last month’s meeting of regional security bloc, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation.

There, Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed that India and China were development partners, not rivals, and discussed ways to strengthen trade ties amid global tariff uncertainty fuelled by Trump.

The US president raised the tariff rate on Indian imports to a stiff 50 percent last month, citing the nation’s continuing purchases of Russian oil. He also urged the European Union to slap 100 percent tariffs on China and India as part of his efforts to pressure Moscow to end its war in Ukraine.

Relations between China and India plummeted in 2020 after security forces clashed along a disputed border in the Himalayan mountains. Four Chinese soldiers and 20 Indian soldiers were killed in the worst violence in decades, freezing high-level political engagements.

Tensions over border disputes had sharply escalated in July during a five-day conflict between the neighbouring countries.

Thailand’s new prime minister has said his government will propose a referendum to address an ongoing dispute with its neighbour, Cambodia, over a demarcation agreement.

Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul told reporters on Monday that “in order to avoid further conflict”, the government will push for a vote on whether Thailand should revoke the existing memorandum of understanding on border issues with Cambodia.

Thailand and Cambodia have long argued over undemarcated points along their 817km (508-mile) land border, but tensions sharply escalated in July during a five-day conflict. The fighting ended after a ceasefire was brokered by Malaysia on July 28.

In the worst fighting between the two countries in a decade, at least 48 people were killed and hundreds of thousands were temporarily displaced.

But for years, the two countries have relied on an agreement, signed in 2000, which sets out the framework for joint survey and demarcation of the land boundary.

In another agreement in 2001, it provided a framework for cooperation and potential resource sharing in maritime areas claimed by both countries.

However, in Thailand, the agreements have come under public scrutiny over the past decade, especially following the latest clashes.

According to Charnvirakul, the new referendum would provide a clear mandate on the matter of the agreements.

Panitan Wattanayagorn, a political scientist at Bangkok’s Chulalongkorn University, cautioned against the revocation of the agreements as solving the issue.

“Their revocation may not be a direct solution to the conflict between Thailand and Cambodia, because it could create a vacuum,” he told the Reuters news agency.

“The government must make clear what will replace them, and this has to be agreed by Cambodia as well,” he said.

At the same time, Charnvirakul also pledged in his inaugural speech in Parliament to address the country’s economy and push for a new and more democratic constitution as he faces a self-imposed deadline to call for elections in four months.

Ukraine has worsened fuel shortages across Russia in the past week as it has continued to hit Russia’s refineries and energy infrastructure with long-range drones while Poland has called for more oil sanctions in the wake of Russia’s first drone attack on NATO soil.

In the meantime, Russia’s creeping advance resulted in the capture of three villages over the past week, and perhaps for the first time, Ukraine’s command reacted by dismissing the retreating officers.

Russian forces took the villages of Sosnovka and Novonikolayevka in Dnipropetrovsk and Olhivske/Olgovskoye in Zaporizhia.

Ukrainian commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrskii on Monday fired the two officers in charge of the 17th and 20th army corps, which are based in the two respective regions.

Since 2024, Ukraine has fought through slow, tactical retreats designed to cede limited ground for disproportionately high Russian casualties.

The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank, has estimated that in May, June, July and August, Russia took 1,910sq km (737.5sq miles) of Ukrainian territory at a cost of 130,000 casualties, averaging 68 casualties per square kilometre.

Syrskyi’s dismissals could indicate a tougher approach towards land losses going forward.

Russian forces were suffering “significant losses” in Kupiansk and Dobropillia, two of the hottest points along the front, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Sunday.

Ukrainian defenders were advancing towards the Russian border in Sumy in northern Ukraine, he said.

Ukraine’s strategy – not purely defensive

Ukraine has launched a two-pronged strategy this year to choke off fuel supplies to the Russian economy and military and to kill Russian revenues from energy exports.

“The most effective sanctions – the ones that work the fastest – are the fires at Russia’s oil refineries, its terminals, oil depots,” Zelenskyy said in an evening address to the Ukrainian people on Sunday.

“Russia’s war is essentially a function of oil, of gas, of all its other energy resources,” he said.

That day, Ukraine crippled Russia’s second largest refinery when its drones struck a processing unit accounting for 40 percent of the plant’s capacity.

Russian authorities said they shot down 361 drones, suggesting there were many other targets as well.

Industry sources told the Reuters news agency that the Kirishinefteorgsintez refinery, located in the northwestern town of Kirishi, would boost production at other units. Even so, the refinery could operate only at three-quarters of its capacity.

Last year, it produced 7.1 million tonnes of diesel and 6.1 million tonnes of fuel oil for ships.

Two days after the Kirishi strike, Ukraine’s military reported it also struck the Saratov refinery, which supplies the Russian military.

There is mounting evidence that the first prong of Ukraine’s strategy is working.

Russian state newspaper Izvestiya reported last week that fuel shortages had spread to 10 Russian republics and regions, including the central regions of Ryazan, Nizhny Novgorod, Saratov and Rostov as well as occupied Crimea.

Izvestiya’s report was based on interviews with the Russian Independent Fuel Union, an association of petrol station owners, which said many petrol stations had not received deliveries for several weeks and had been forced to shut down.

Regional governors have also recently confirmed fuel shortages.

Ukraine has struck at least 10 major Russian refineries this year, and the commander of its Unmanned Systems Forces estimated Russia has lost one-fifth of its refining capacity.

“The Russian war machine will only stop when it runs out of fuel,” Zelenskyy told the annual Yalta European Strategy Meeting in Kyiv on Friday. “And Putin will begin to stop it himself when he himself truly feels that the resources for war are running out.”

Fewer exports

The second prong of Ukraine’s strategy, choking off Russia’s cashflow from oil and fuel exports, has also been highly successful.

On Friday, Ukrainian drones struck Russia’s largest oil offloading terminal at Primorsk on the Baltic Sea, according to sources at Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU).

The strike caused a fire at the pumping station and a ship moored next to it, forcing the terminal to suspend shipments, Ukrainian outlet Suspilne reported.

Ukraine also struck pumping stations along the Transneft Baltic Pipeline System-2, which supplies crude oil to offloading terminals in the port of Ust-Luga, also in the Leningrad region.

“Oil and gas revenues have accounted for between a third and half of Russia’s total federal budget proceeds over the past decade, making the sector the single most important source of financing for the government,” Reuters said.

Russia has banned all exports of refined petroleum products since February and sought to increase exports of crude oil instead.

But even that goal may not be possible.

Russia’s biggest pipeline operator, Transneft, has reportedly told upstream oil producers they may have to cut their output because Ukrainian strikes have degraded its ability to store and carry oil to refineries and export terminals, according to three industry sources who spoke to Reuters.

Transneft dismissed the report as “fake news”.

EU seeks to end all imports

Poland called for a complete ban of Russian oil imports to the European Union after 19 Russian drones entered its airspace on September 10.

Most of the EU has banned Russian oil imports, but Hungary and Slovakia have an exemption until the end of 2027 because they said it’s cheaper for them to import oil via pipeline from Russia than to receive it through other EU countries.

That may change, the European Commission chief said on Tuesday. “The Commission will soon present its 19th package of sanctions, targeting crypto, banks, and energy,” President Ursula von der Leyen wrote on social media. “The Commission will propose speeding up the phase-out of Russian fossil imports.”

Ongoing sales of Russian energy to Europe have been a topic of concern.

Official EU imports of Russian oil have dropped by an estimated 90 percent since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, according to estimates from the EU’s statistical service.

However, the EU never actually banned Russian gas, and the London-based think tank Ember has estimated it paid Russia $23.6bn for gas last year – almost $5bn more than it paid in military aid to Ukraine.

“I urge all partners to stop looking for excuses not to impose particular sanctions,” Zelenskyy said on Saturday. “If [Russian President Vladimir] Putin does not want peace, he must be forced into it.”

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk says an investigation is under way after drone spotted over government buildings in Warsaw.

Authorities in Poland have said that two Belarusian citizens were detained and a drone was “neutralised” after it was flown over government buildings and the presidential residence in the capital city, Warsaw.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said early on Tuesday that members of the country’s State Protection Services apprehended the two Belarusians, and police were “investigating the circumstances of the incident”.

The Associated Press news agency quoted Colonel Boguslaw Piorkowski, a spokesperson for the protection service, saying that the drone was not shot down by Polish forces but landed after authorities apprehended the operators.

“The impression is that this is not something that flew in from abroad but rather launched locally,” Katarzyna Pelczynska-Nalecz, Poland’s minister of development funds and regional policy, told local media outlet TVN 24, according to the AP.

The minister also advised the public against rushing to conclusions or associating the incident with last week’s high-profile incursion by multiple Russian drones into Polish airspace during an aerial attack on neighbouring Ukraine, the AP reported.

Przed chwilą Służba Ochrony Państwa zneutralizowała drona operującego nad budynkami rządowymi (Parkowa) i Belwederem. Zatrzymano dwóch obywateli Białorusi. Policja bada okoliczności incydentu.

— Donald Tusk (@donaldtusk) September 15, 2025

Translation: Just now, the State Protection Service neutralised a drone operating over government buildings (Parkowa) and the Belweder. Two Belarusian citizens were detained. The police are investigating the circumstances of the incident.

The reported arrest of the Belarusian drone operators by Polish authorities comes as thousands of troops from Belarus and Russia take part in the “Zapad (West) 2025” military drills, which kicked off on Friday and are due to end on Tuesday.

Poland, Latvia and Lithuania, which border Belarus, closed their frontier crossings and bolstered defences in advance of the exercises, which authorities in Minsk said involve 6,000 soldiers from Belarus and 1,000 from Russia.

Poland is also on high alert after last week’s Russian drone incursions, which led to Polish and NATO fighter jets mobilising to defend against what was described as an “unprecedented violation of Polish airspace” by Moscow.

Polish F-16 and Dutch F-35 fighter jets, as well as Italian AWACS surveillance planes, deployed to counter the drones, marking the first time that NATO-allied forces have engaged Russian military assets since Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

One of the drones damaged a residential building in Wyryki, eastern Poland, though nobody was reported injured, according to the Reuters news agency.

On Friday, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte announced that the Western military alliance would increase its defence “posture” in Eastern Europe following the Polish airspace violation.

Operation “Eastern Sentry” will include military assets from a range of NATO members, including Denmark, France, Germany and the United Kingdom, Rutte said, describing the incursion as “reckless” and “unacceptable”.

Amid the increased tension with Russia, NATO member Romania also reported a drone incursion on Saturday, which led to the scrambling of two F-16 fighter jets as well as two Eurofighters and a warning to Romanian citizens to take cover.

Romanian Minister of National Defence Ionut Mosteanu said the fighter jets came close to shooting down the drone before it exited Romanian airspace into neighbouring Ukraine.

Moscow’s ambassador to Romania was summoned by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on Sunday, where Bucharest “conveyed its strong protest against this unacceptable and irresponsible act, which constitutes a violation of [its] sovereignty”.

Russia was “urgently requested… to prevent any future violations”, the Romanian Foreign Ministry said in a statement.

US military action against a Venezuelan boat sparks condemnation and troop deployments.

Venezuela has accused the United States of illegally boarding and occupying one of its fishing vessels in the country’s special economic zone, further escalating tensions between Caracas and Washington.

In a statement on Saturday, Venezuela’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said the vessel, carrying nine “humble” and “harmless” fishermen, was intercepted by the US destroyer USS Jason Dunham (DDG-109) on Friday.

“The warship deployed 18 armed agents who boarded and occupied the small, harmless boat for eight hours,” the statement said, calling the incident a “direct provocation through the illegal use of excessive military means”.

The move follows a US military strike last week in the Caribbean that killed 11 Venezuelans and sank a boat that the administration of US President Donald Trump claimed, without evidence, had been transporting narcotics.

Venezuela has rejected these claims, with Minister of the Popular Power for Interior Diosdado Cabello insisting none of those killed was a member of the Tren de Aragua gang, as alleged by Washington.

“They openly confessed to killing 11 people,” Cabello said on state television. “Our investigations show the victims were not drug traffickers. A murder has been committed against a group of citizens using lethal force.”

The White House defended the strike, with spokeswoman Anna Kelly calling the victims “evil Tren de Aragua narcoterrorists” and saying that Nicolas Maduro is “not the legitimate president of Venezuela” and is a “fugitive.”

Several countries deny Maduro’s legitimacy as a democratically elected leader due to what some have viewed as unfair elections, but the Trump administration has not provided evidence linking the Venezuelan president to Tren de Aragua. US intelligence agencies have said there is no sign of coordination between the government and traffickers.

Pentagon officials did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Venezuelan President Maduro announced the deployment of troops, police and civilian militias across 284 “battlefront” locations, reinforcing previous troop increases along the Colombian border.

Speaking from Ciudad Caribia, Maduro signalled Venezuela’s readiness to defend its water, saying: “We’re ready for an armed fight, if it’s necessary.”

The US has also expanded its military presence in the southern Caribbean, sending warships and deploying 10 F-35 fighter jets to Puerto Rico.

Last month, Washington doubled its reward for information leading to Maduro’s arrest to $50m, citing alleged drug trafficking and criminal ties, a claim Venezuela denies, asserting it is not a drug-producing country.

China’s plan to build a nature reserve in the Scarborough Shoal brings strong responses from the Philippines and US.

United States Secretary of State Marco Rubio has expressed support for Manila’s opposition to Beijing’s plan to designate the contested Scarborough Shoal as a “nature reserve”, characterising the move as part of a broader Chinese strategy of coercion in the South China Sea.

“The US stands with our Philippine ally in rejecting China’s destabilising plans to establish a ‘national nature reserve’ at Scarborough Reef,” Rubio wrote on the X social media platform on Friday.

“This is yet another coercive attempt to advance China’s interests at the expense of its neighbours and regional stability,” Rubio said.

“… Claiming Scarborough Reef as a nature preserve is another example of Beijing using pressure tactics to push expansive maritime and territorial claims, disregarding the rights of neighbouring countries,” he added in a statement.

On Wednesday, China’s State Council revealed its intention to establish a nature reserve spanning 3,500 hectares (8,650 acres) on the disputed islet, describing the initiative as an “important guarantee for maintaining … diversity, stability and sustainability”.

While Scarborough Shoal lies 240km (150 miles) west of the Philippines’ main island of Luzon and is included in the country’s exclusive economic zone, it has been under Beijing’s control since 2012.

China’s nature reserve plans drew a string of strong responses from the Philippines, where the Department of Foreign Affairs promised on Thursday to lodge a “formal diplomatic protest against this illegitimate and unlawful action”.

According to the Philippine Star news outlet, Philippine National Security Adviser Eduardo Ano said China’s planned “Huangyan Island National Nature Reserve” is “patently illegal”.

Ano cited violations of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), the 2016 arbitral ruling in favour of Manila regarding China’s claims in the sea, and the 2002 Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea.

“This move by the People’s Republic of China is less about protecting the environment and more about justifying its control over a maritime feature that is part of the territory of the Philippines and its waters lie within the exclusive economic zone of the Philippines,” Ano was quoted in the newspaper.

“It is a clear pretext towards eventual occupation,” he said.

Leading Filipino business newspaper BusinessWorld included excerpts from analysts who said Beijing is likely testing Manila’s resolve in asserting its claim over the region.

“China will likely want to see what the response will be from the Philippines,” said Julio S. Amador III, chief executive officer at Manila-based geopolitical risk firm Amador Research Services.

“If it sees that there is no effective pushback, then there is a strong possibility that it will try to do the same over other features,” Amador said.

Last month, the Philippines, Australia and Canada held joint naval drills east of Scarborough Shoal to simulate aerial attacks and how to counter such threats.

China, for its part, has insisted it will defend the area.

China asserts sovereignty over nearly the entire South China Sea – a strategic maritime corridor through which more than $3 trillion in trade passes each year – despite competing territorial claims from the Philippines, Brunei, Malaysia, and Vietnam.

Israel claims it has struck Hezbollah targets, although the Lebanese group has not commented.

At least five people have been killed and five others wounded after Israeli warplanes struck eastern Lebanon in the latest violation of the ceasefire agreement signed last November, according to Lebanon’s Health Ministry.

The attacks on Monday hit the Bekaa and Hermel districts, with state media saying at least eight air raids were carried out. According to Lebanon’s National News Agency, seven bombs fell on the outskirts of Hermel, while another strike targeted the nearby town of Labweh.

Israel’s military claimed the raids hit weapons depots and military facilities used by Hezbollah, though the claims could not be independently confirmed. Hezbollah has not yet commented.

Israel has continued launching near-daily assaults on Lebanese territory, particularly in the south, while maintaining an occupation at five border outposts despite the truce requiring a full withdrawal earlier this year.

The conflict erupted on October 8, 2023, when Israel opened a military offensive in Lebanon. By the time the ceasefire was reached in November the following year, more than 4,000 people had been killed and almost 17,000 wounded.

The fragile truce is under further strain as Lebanon grapples with a contentious plan pushed by the United States and Israel to disarm Hezbollah.

Earlier this month, Lebanon’s army presented a proposal to the cabinet outlining steps to begin dismantling the group’s arsenal. Information Minister Paul Morcos said the government welcomed the move, but stopped short of confirming cabinet approval.

The plan prompted a walkout by five Shia ministers, including representatives of Hezbollah and its ally, the Amal Movement, who insist the group will not disarm while Israel continues air strikes and occupation in the south.

The US and Hezbollah’s political rivals in Lebanon have increased pressure on the group to surrender its weapons. Hezbollah has resisted, warning that even raising the issue while Israeli attacks persist would be a “serious misstep”.

Last week, Israeli strikes killed four people in Lebanon, underlining the escalating tension despite the ceasefire. Israel was also slammed for dropping grenades close to peacekeepers from the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) last week.

An eerily familiar set of headlines is making the rounds in Ethiopia, troubling many in the fragile, northern Tigray region.

Successive delegations of civil society and religious leaders have, in recent weeks, travelled to the Tigrayan capital, Mekelle, for “dialogue”. For some, it is a reminder of the events that played out in the final weeks before Tigray descended into war in November 2020.

That war left 600,000 people dead and some five million displaced. It brought global attention to Ethiopia’s fractured politics and tarnished the reputation of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who had won a Nobel Peace Prize for mending long-severed ties with neighbouring Eritrea.

A ceasefire two years later was supposed to end the war; instead, analysts say, another conflict might be looming. This time, it could involve not just the Tigrayan regional authorities, but also Eritrea, and potentially, that country’s own allies. It is not a conflict that the region can withstand, experts fear.

“We are now at a point where we are all frightened at another conflict in Tigray, and with Eritrea,” analyst Abel Abate Demissie of the Chatham House think tank in the United Kingdom told Al Jazeera. “It would be extremely devastating.”

Fractured agreements signed back in November 2022 that ended the war between the regional Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and the federal government are at the root of the tensions. However, it is the deepening resentment between neighbours Eritrea and Ethiopia that analysts say is the scariest development this time.

Ethiopia is a key player in East Africa, and war there could derail regional stability as neighbouring Sudan, South Sudan, and Somalia deal with ongoing armed conflict. It could also affect Africa’s self-reliance in the aviation sector, as Addis Ababa is one of Africa’s most important air travel hubs.

Peace agreement pushed aside

War broke out in Tigray in November 2020 after Ethiopia’s Abiy accused the TPLF of attacking a command centre of the national army, the Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF).

For decades, the TPLF dominated the ruling coalition in Addis Ababa in what experts say was an autocratic system. The group was disliked in nearly all 10 regions of Ethiopia, a country where regions form along ethnic lines. Eritrea, which fought a border war with TPLF-dominated Ethiopia in 1998, also had gripes with the party. When Abiy, an Oromo, was elected in 2018, though, he established peaceful ties with Eritrea and set about implementing reforms for a stronger central government. The TPLF, however, saw Abiy’s moves as a threat to its power and sought to overthrow his government.

Addis Ababa, in its military response to the TPLF attack, teamed up with other TPLF-opposed entities, including the Amhara army and allied militias, as well as Eritrean forces. All sides were accused of attacking civilians; however, rights groups also accused the federal government of deliberately blocking aid to Tigrayans and causing a near-famine. The United States called attacks by Amhara militias “ethnic cleansing” while many Tigrayans claim the war was a genocide. Many were forcibly displaced from western Tigray, which the Amhara region claims. Thousands of women were raped.

In November 2022, Addis Ababa and TPLF signed the Pretoria peace agreement. The ceasefire deal mandated that the TPLF disarm and a new government be jointly appointed by both sides. It also mandated that Addis Ababa oversee the safe return of displaced people and that all third-party armies withdraw.

However, a power struggle emerged in the TPLF between the Abiy-appointed Tigray mayor, Getachew Reda, and the TPLF head, Debretsion Gebremichael. It began when Getachew attempted to implement the disarmament clause. Core TPLF members, however, accused him of being a sellout. In March, the TPLF faction aligned with Debretsion staged a coup, seized the Mekelle radio station, and forced Getachew to leave Mekelle for Addis Ababa. The coup was a direct affront to Abiy, analysts say. Although he has since appointed another interim president from Debretsion’s camp, Addis Ababa and TPLF have traded insults and threatened attacks.

“Both sides have downplayed their responsibility,” said Abel of Chatham House, speaking of how both sides appear to have moved away from the Pretoria agreement. The TPLF accuses Addis Ababa of failing to resettle people, with some 1.6 million still displaced, and is threatening to forcibly return them. It also blames the government for revoking its licence as a political party, although the national electoral body says it is because the TPLF has failed to hold a general assembly as it previously mandated.

Addis Ababa, on the other hand, has faulted the TPLF for failing to disarm, and also accuses the party of allying with Eritrea.

In a speech in parliament in July, Abiy urged religious leaders and civil society members to warn TPLF leaders against escalation, because when conflict starts, “it would be too late”.

Getachew, who has been expelled from the TPLF, has formed a new party, the Tigray Democratic Solidarity Party. Analysts say it is possible that the party might be installed in Tigray instead.

Meanwhile, Amhara militias and the TPLF continue to clash. Many young people who joined the TPLF in the 2020 war have defected to form new militias allied with Getachew’s faction and attempted an attack on the TPLF in July.

The problem with Eritrea

Ethiopia’s perpetual entanglement with Eritrea has taken on a different dimension since 2020, with both again at loggerheads.

Cracks appeared in their parley after Abiy’s government agreed to peace with the TPLF. President Isaias Afwerki, who has been Eritrea’s de facto leader since 1994, was reportedly angered as he did not feel sufficiently consulted, even as Eritrean troops are still in Tigray.

A bigger problem, however, is Abiy’s comments since 2023 about landlocked Ethiopia’s “existential” need to access a seaport. Asmara has taken those statements as a threat that Addis Ababa might invade and seize the coastal areas it previously lost after Eritrea fought to secede in 1993. In one comment, Abiy described Ethiopia losing sea access as a “historical mistake”.

Since then, Eritrea has been building up defences, sending military tanks to the border, according to analysts, with Ethiopia doing the same. In February, Eritrea put out calls for conscription into the army. Asmara is also reportedly in cahoots with the TPLF to undermine Abiy, although officials deny this.

Both sides do not really want to go to war and are merely posturing, analyst Abel said. Eritrea would meet in Addis Ababa a formidable enemy, and Ethiopia is not eager to mar its reputation as a growing regional leader where the African Union has its headquarters.

“The problem, though, is it only takes one small act to ignite a war, even if both sides don’t want it,” the analyst said.

In March, Abiy attempted to downplay the tensions while speaking in parliament.

“Our intention is to negotiate based on the principle of give and take,” he said, implying that any port deals would be commercial. “Our plan is not to fight but to work together and grow together.”

It is not only Asmara that has been angered by Abiy’s bid to find a port. Neighbouring Somalia nearly declared war last year after Abiy sealed a port deal with the self-declared state of Somaliland. Somalia, which views Somaliland as part of its territory, was furious, but Turkiye, Somalia’s close ally, mediated repairs between the two in December. Before they reconciled, Eritrea held meetings with Somalia, as well as Egypt, which is also angry with Addis Ababa over the Grand Renaissance Dam, which it says will limit its water supply from the Nile.

Can all sides find peace?

Analysts say the work of finding common ground rests mostly with Abiy as Asmara, for one, is not strong on diplomacy, and the TPLF appears more confident with reported Eritrean backing.

The big unknown is whether Abiy is willing and able to restore ties with either the TPLF or Eritrea without either side feeling sidelined. In the background, as well, are the Amhara militias who are still present in disputed western Tigray. Any attempts to remove them could lead to conflict.

In any case, Abiy is already suffering a crisis of legitimacy, analyst Micheal Tsegay Assefa concluded in a brief for the Atlas Institute for International Affairs.

“Regional leaders, particularly from Amhara and Oromia, increasingly question the central government’s capacity to secure peace and manage inter-regional conflicts,” he wrote, due to Addis Ababa’s inability to enforce the peace deal.

Meanwhile, as the sabre-rattling continues, Tigrayans are once again fearing for their lives. The recent tensions have sent scores of people fleeing from the region, with some risking deadly routes to get out of the country altogether.

Researchers say Ethiopian migrants attempting, and dying, to enter Yemen via the Gulf of Aden increasingly appear to be from Tigray, based on the clothing or jewellery found by rescuers during shipwrecks.

Analysts say another war simply must not happen.

“Conflict only needs one side to go rogue,” Abel said. “I really hope that sanity will prevail and all sides will apply wisdom.”

Pyongyang claims South Korea’s army fired more than 10 warning shots from a machinegun towards North Korean troops.

North Korea has accused South Korean forces of firing warning shots earlier this week at its soldiers who were part of a border reinforcement project, warning Seoul that its actions risked raising tensions to “uncontrollable” levels.

In a report published on Saturday, Pyongyang’s official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) quoted the North ‘s Korean People’s Army Vice Chief of the General Staff Ko Jong Chol as saying that the South should stop its “premeditated and deliberate” provocation, which he described as “inciting military conflict”.

Calling the incident a “serious provocation”, Ko said the South Korean military fired more than 10 warning shots towards North Korean troops.

“This is a very serious prelude that would inevitably drive the situation in the southern border area, where a huge number of forces are stationing, in confrontation with each other, to the uncontrollable phase,” Ko said.

The incident took place on Tuesday as North Korean soldiers were working to permanently seal the heavily fortified border that divides the peninsula, state media outlet KCNA said, citing a statement from Ko.

South Korea did not immediately comment on the reported encounter, and the country’s official news agency, Yonhap, reported that it had no immediate confirmation from officials in Seoul on Pyongyang’s claim.

The reported firing of warning shots is only the latest confrontation between North and South Korean forces, which have been at odds for decades over the heavily guarded border that divides both nations.

The last border clash between the archrivals was in early April when South Korea’s military fired warning shots after a group of 10 North Korean soldiers briefly crossed the border.

Those troops were spotted in the Demilitarized Zone between the two countries, parts of which are heavily mined and overgrown.

In more recent months, South Korea has been taking steps to ease border tensions following the election of President Lee Jae-myung in June.

‘Corresponding countermeasure’

North Korea’s army announced last October that it was moving to totally shut off the southern border, saying it had sent a telephone message to United States forces based in South Korea to “prevent any misjudgement and accidental conflict”.

Shortly after its announcement, it blew up sections of the unused but deeply symbolic cross-border roads and railway tracks that had once connected the North and South.

Ko, in the statement published by state media, warned that North Korea’s army would retaliate to any interference with its efforts to permanently seal the border.

“If the act of restraining or obstructing the project unrelated to the military character persists, our army will regard it as deliberate military provocation and take corresponding countermeasure,” he said.

Last year, North Korea sent thousands of rubbish-carrying balloons southwards, saying they were retaliation for anti-North Korean propaganda balloons sent by South Korean activists.

Later, Seoul turned on border loudspeaker broadcasts for the first time in six years, which included K-pop tunes and international news. Pyongyang responded by blaring strange sounds along the frontier, unsettling South Korean residents.

Seoul has since turned off the loudspeaker broadcasts following orders from newly elected President Lee.

India and China have agreed to step up trade flows and resume direct flights in a major diplomatic breakthrough, as the two most populous nations try to rebuild ties damaged by a 2020 deadly border clash and amid US President Donald Trump’s unpredictable foreign policy.

The two rivals also agreed to advance talks on their disputed border during Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s two-day visit to India.

The rebuilding of India-China ties coincides with friction between New Delhi and Washington, following the recent imposition of steep tariffs on India by the Trump administration.

So why did India and China decide to mend their ties, and what steps were taken to address their border dispute?

What specific points were agreed?

Discussions covered a range of issues related to withdrawing tens of thousands of troops that both countries have amassed along their Himalayan border, boosting investment and trade flows, hosting more bilateral events, and enhancing travel access.

The Asian neighbours agreed to reopen several trading routes – namely the Lipulekh Pass, Shipki La Pass and Nathu La Pass. An expert group will also be established to explore “early harvest” steps (i.e. mini-agreements that can be implemented quickly before the conclusion of a more complex deal) to improve border management, a move India had previously opposed.

In the past, India was keen to avoid a situation where China secured partial gains up front, but where its territorial integrity concerns remained unresolved. India’s opposition has accused the government of ceding territory to China.

Elsewhere, China has reportedly agreed to address India’s concerns over its export curbs on fertilisers, rare earth minerals and tunnel-boring machines, according to Indian media reports.

But Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning, when asked about Indian media reports on the lifting of export controls, said she was not familiar with the media reports.

“As a matter of principle, China is willing to strengthen dialogue and cooperation with relevant countries and regions to jointly maintain the stability of the global production and supply chain,” she said in a media briefing on Wednesday.

New Delhi and Beijing also agreed to resume direct flights between the two countries, enhance river-sharing data and drop certain visa restrictions for tourists, businesses and journalists.

Who said what?

During his two-day trip, Wang Yi held meetings with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and India’s National Security Adviser Ajit Doval, encounters that will pave the way for Modi’s first visit to China in seven years at the end of August.

“Stable, predictable, constructive ties between India and China will contribute significantly to regional as well as global peace and prosperity,” Modi posted on X after his meeting with Wang.

Meanwhile, Doval said that China and India had achieved a “new environment” of “peace and tranquillity”. He added that “the setbacks that we faced in the last few years were not in our interest”, and “delimitation and boundary affairs” had been discussed.

A readout from China’s Foreign Ministry said Wang told Doval that “the stable and healthy development of China-India relations is in the fundamental interests of the two countries’ people”.

The two sides “should enhance mutual trust through dialogues and expand cooperation”, Wang said, and should aim for consensus in areas such as border control and demarcation negotiations.

Looking ahead, Modi is scheduled to travel to China at the end of this month to take part in the summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation – his first visit to the country since June 2018.

Why did relations sour in the first place?

Relations between the two countries plummeted in 2020 after security forces clashed along their Himalayan border. Four Chinese soldiers and 20 Indian soldiers were killed in the worst violence in decades, freezing high-level diplomatic relations.

The chill in relations after the deadly Ladakh clash – the first fatal confrontation between India and China since 1975 – also affected trade and air travel, as both sides deployed tens of thousands of security forces in border areas.

Following the border tensions, India imposed curbs on Chinese investments in the country. Months later, New Delhi banned dozens of Chinese apps, including TikTok, owned by China’s ByteDance, citing security concerns.

But despite the soaring tensions, the bilateral trade between the two countries did not see a drastic drop, and in fact, New Delhi’s imports from Beijing have grown to more than $100bn from $65nb in the financial year 2020-2021 as the country’s electronics and pharma industries heavily rely on raw materials from China.

On Monday, Wang said, “The setbacks we experienced in the past few years were not in the interest of the people of our two countries. We are heartened to see the stability that is now restored on the borders.”

For his part, Modi emphasised the importance of maintaining peace and tranquillity on the border and reiterated India’s commitment to a “fair, reasonable and mutually acceptable resolution of the boundary question”, his office said in a statement on Tuesday.

Why did the two sides decide to mend ties?

The geopolitical disruption caused by Donald Trump’s trade wars has helped create an opening for Asia’s leading and third-largest economies to try to mend their diplomatic and economic relations.

Indeed, the improvement in ties has accelerated since Trump increased tariffs on both countries earlier this year – particularly India, which had been pursuing a closer relationship with the United States in a joint front against China.

Moreover, India and the US have been haggling over free trade agreements for months, with Trump accusing India of denying access to American goods due to higher tariffs. China has also been locked in months-long trade negotiations with the US.

China and India increased official visits and discussed relaxing some trade restrictions and easing the movement of citizens since Modi met Chinese President Xi Jinping in Kazan, Russia last October. In June, Beijing even allowed pilgrims from India to visit holy sites in Tibet while India issued tourist visas to Chinese nationals in a sign of improving ties.

But Trump’s decision to declare a 25 percent “reciprocal” tariff on India in June over the country’s imports of Russian oil – and his move a week later to raise it again to 50 percent – have hastened dramatic diplomatic realignment. Even the US’s close allies – South Korea and Japan – have not been spared by Trump’s tariffs.

Top Trump officials have accused India of funding Russia’s war in Ukraine, with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Tuesday accusing India of “profiteering”.

But China’s imports of Russian oil are even larger than India’s. And on August 12, the US extended a tariff truce on Beijing for another 90 days – staving off triple-digit tariffs. In turn, New Delhi has accused Washington of double standards over its tariff policy.

Suhasini Haidar, an Indian journalist writing in the newspaper The Hindu, said that the rationale behind the US sanctions on India is “dubious”. “The US has itself increased its trade with Russia since Trump came to power,” she wrote.

US Treasury Secretary Bessent, however, has defended Washington’s decision not to impose secondary sanctions against China, saying Beijing “has a diversified input of their oil”. Beijing’s import of Russian oil, he said, went from 13 percent to 16 percent while India’s went from less than one percent to over 40 percent.

Trump’s claim that he secured a ceasefire between India and Pakistan has further caused anger in India, which has refused to give credit to the US president for the May 10 ceasefire that stopped the five-day war between the nuclear-armed neighbours. Trump’s hosting of the Pakistan Army’s General Asim Munir has not helped the cause, either.

US-India relations have frayed despite Modi cultivating personal ties with Trump, particularly during his first term. The Indian prime minister was Trump’s first guest in his second term in February, when he coined the slogan “Make India Great Again” (MIGA), borrowing from Trump’s “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) base. “MAGA plus MIGA becomes a mega partnership for prosperity,” Modi said.

But Trump’s repeated attacks on India have poured cold water on “the partnership”, with Indian foreign policy experts fearing the ties are headed towards uncharted territory.

“At risk is three decades of India’s economic ascent, and its careful positioning as an emerging power, shaped in the shadow of US strategic backing,” wrote Sushant Singh, a lecturer in South Asian studies at Yale University, in the Financial Times. “Trump has shredded India’s road map; it could be replaced by strategic drift, realignment or eventual rapprochement.”

The turbulence in India-US ties has forced New Delhi to repair ties with its adversary China, which supplies military equipment to Pakistan and took the side of Islamabad during the recent war.

Amid Trump’s trade war, New Delhi and Beijing have joined forces to improve trade and people-to-people contact.

The new developments may also boost relations between members of the BRICS bloc – with India and China being the group’s founding members, along with Brazil, Russia and South Africa. India and China will host the 2026 and 2027 BRICS summits, respectively. Trump has also railed against BRICS nations, warning the member nations against challenging the US dollar.

South Korea’s President Lee Jae-myung said he will restore a military agreement to rebuild trust with North Korea.

South Korea has said it intends to restore an agreement suspending military activity along its border with North Korea and revive inter-Korean cooperation, as President Lee Jae-myung attempts to dampen soaring tensions over Pyongyang’s nuclear programme and deepening ties with Russia.

Marking the 80th anniversary of Korea’s liberation from Japanese colonial rule on Friday, Lee said he will seek to restore the so-called September 19 Military Agreement and rebuild trust with North Korea.

“To prevent accidental clashes between South and North Korea and to build military trust, we will take proactive, gradual steps to restore the [2018] September 19 Military Agreement,” Lee said in a televised speech.

Lee added that his government “will not pursue any form of unification by absorption and has no intention of engaging in hostile acts” against its northern neighbour.

The September 19 agreement was signed at an inter-Korean summit in 2018, where the leaders of both countries declared the start of a new era of peace.

But Seoul partially suspended the deal in late 2023 after it objected to North Korea launching a military spy satellite into space, with Pyongyang then effectively ripping up the deal as it deployed heavy weapons into the Demilitarized Zone between both countries and restored guard posts.

Tensions then spiralled between the two Koreas under Yoon Suk-yeol, South Korea’s conservative ex-president who was elected in 2022 but removed from office in April and is now serving jail time for his brief imposition of martial law in December.

South Korea and North Korea – separated along the heavily militarised buffer zone known as the 38th parallel – are still technically at war after their 1950-53 war ended in an armistice, not a peace treaty.

Making clear his desire to resume dialogue with Pyongyang since winning a snap election in June, South Korea’s new left-leaning President Lee has taken a softer tone and sought rapprochement with North Korea.

Soon after his inauguration and in his government’s first concrete step towards easing tensions, Lee halted the South blasting propaganda messages and K-pop songs across the border into the North.

Earlier this month, South Korea began removing its loudspeakers from its side of the border, while Seoul’s Joint Chiefs of Staff claimed it had evidence that Pyongyang was doing the same.

But, on Thursday, Kim Yo Jong – the powerful sister of North Korea’s long-ruling leader Kim Jong Un – dampened any suggestion of warming ties between the Koreas.

Kim, who oversees the propaganda operations of the Workers’ Party of Korea, which has ruled the country since 1948, accused Seoul of misleading the public and “building up the public opinion while embellishing their new policy” towards Pyongyang.

“We have never removed loudspeakers installed on the border area and are not willing to remove them,” Kim said.

Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia – When four Chinese vessels joined with Russian ships earlier this month in joint naval drills in the Sea of Japan, few eyebrows were raised.

Moscow and Beijing have been reinforcing their military partnership in recent years as they seek to counterbalance what they see as the United States-led global order.

But what did raise eyebrows among defence analysts and regional governments had occurred several weeks earlier when China sent its aircraft carriers into the Pacific together for the first time.

Maritime expert and former United States Air Force Colonel Ray Powell described the “simultaneous deployment” of China’s two aircraft carriers east of the Philippines as a “historic” moment as the country races to realise Chinese President Xi Jinping’s ambition of having a world-class navy by 2035.

“No nation except the US has operated dual carrier groups at such distances since [World War II],” said Powell, director of SeaLight, a maritime transparency project of the Gordian Knot Center at Stanford University.

“While it will take years for China’s still-nascent carrier capabilities to approach that of America’s, this wasn’t just a training exercise – it was China demonstrating it can now contest and even deny US access to crucial sea lanes,” Powell told Al Jazeera.

China’s state-run news agency Xinhua described the exercise by the aircraft carriers as a “far-sea combat-oriented training”, and the state-affiliated Global Times reported that China was soon poised to enter the “three-aircraft-carrier era”, when its Fujian carrier enters service later this year.

East Asia is a ‘home game’ for China

China currently has two operational aircraft carriers – the Liaoning and Shandong – and the Fujian is undergoing sea trials.

While the Chinese navy operates the world’s largest naval fleet with more than 370 ships compared with the US’s 251 active ships in commission, Beijing still lacks the global logistics network and advanced nuclear submarine technology required of a truly mature blue water force, Powell said.

Beijing’s three aircraft carriers run on diesel compared with Washington’s 11 carriers, all of which are nuclear powered.

But “gaps” in naval capabilities are closing between the US and China.

“[China] fully intends to close these gaps and is applying tremendous resources toward that end, and with its rapidly improving technical prowess and vastly superior shipbuilding capacity, it has demonstrated its potential to get there,” Powell said.

Beijing’s more immediate focus is not directed towards competing with the US globally, Powell added.

Rather, China is focused on changing the balance of power and convincing its allies and adversaries to accept China’s dominance within its chosen sphere of influence in East Asia.

The second option, if ever necessary, is to defeat them.

“East Asia is a ‘home game’ for China – a place where it can augment its small carrier force through its far larger land-based air and rocket forces – including so-called [aircraft] ‘carrier killer’ missile systems that can strike targets up to 4,000km [2,485 miles] away,” Powell said.

Regionally, while the Philippines engages in increasingly frequent high seas confrontations with the Chinese coastguard, it is Japan that is watching China’s naval build-up with concern, experts said.

Japan’s Defence Minister Gen Nakatani said in June – after confirming that China’s two carriers had operated simultaneously in the Pacific for the first time – that Beijing apparently aims “to advance its operational capability of the distant sea and airspace”.

With the US increasingly perceived as becoming more inward-looking under President Donald Trump, Japan is considered a growing force in the contested maritime terrain in the Asia Pacific region amid what Tokyo has called “the most severe and complex security environment since the end of World War II”.

‘Preparation for a more uncertain future’

Even before Trump’s second stint as US president, Japan had embarked on the most pivotal shift in post-World War II military spending.

Tokyo’s defence spending and related costs are expected to total 9.9 trillion yen (about $67bn) for fiscal year 2025, equivalent to 1.8 percent of Japan’s gross domestic product (GDP), and the government has committed to raising spending on defence to 2 percent of GDP by 2027, according to Japanese media reports.

“[Japan’s] naval capacity is growing steadily, not just in support of the US alliance but in quiet preparation for a more uncertain future – perhaps even one in which America withdraws from the Pacific,” said Mike Burke, lecturer at Tokyo-based Meiji University.

Collin Koh, senior fellow at the Singapore-based Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS), also said that China’s growing military might, assertiveness and proclivity to resort to coercive behaviour have “aggravated Japan’s threat perception”.

But Japan alone cannot guarantee security in such a regional hotspot as the South China Sea, said Burke.

Instead, Tokyo’s goal is to check Beijing’s growing power through a Japanese presence and building partnerships with other regional players.

This year alone so far, Japan has deployed two naval fleets to “realise” what Japanese officials describe as a free and open Asia Pacific region. The first fleet was deployed from January 4 to May 10 and docked in 12 countries, including Malaysia, Singapore, the Philippines, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Oman.

The second was deployed on April 21 and is ongoing until November, with port calls in some 23 countries, as well as roles in multilateral military exercises.

Japan aims to build trust with other allies, Burke said, noting that Japan has worked on its soft power by funding radar systems, investing in civil infrastructure from ports to rail networks in Southeast Asia, and supporting maritime domain awareness initiatives in the region.

Noriyuki Shikata, Japan’s ambassador to Malaysia, described Tokyo’s approach as a strength at home and reinforcing collaboration abroad with “like-minded countries and others with whom Japan cooperates”, in order to uphold and realise a free and open international order.

“Japan has been strengthening its defence capabilities to the point at which Japan can take the primary responsibility for dealing with invasions against Japan, and disrupt and defeat such threats while obtaining the support of its [US] ally and other security partners,” the ambassador told Al Jazeera.

Zachary Abuza, professor of Southeast Asia studies and security at Washington, DC-based National War College, said the Japan Maritime Self-Defence Force (JMSDF) is a world-class navy that is focused on building the highest level of capabilities.

Abuza also described Japan’s submarine force as “exceptional”, while it is also building up its capabilities, including more high-end antiship missiles.

“All of these developments should give the Chinese some pause,” Abuza told Al Jazeera in a recent interview.

“That said, they [the Japanese] are nervous about Trump’s commitment to treaty obligations, and you can see the Japan Self-Defence Force is trying to strengthen its strategic autonomy,” he said.

‘Chinese assertiveness could result in an accident’

Geng Shuang, charge d’affaires of China’s permanent mission to the United Nations, said earlier this year that China was committed to working with the “countries concerned” to address conflicting claims in the South China Sea through peaceful dialogue.

He also lambasted the threat posed by the US navy’s freedom of navigation operations in the contested sea.

“The United States, under the banner of freedom of navigation, has frequently sent its military vessels to the South China Sea to flex its muscles and openly stir up confrontation between regional countries,” Geng was quoted as saying by Xinhua.

China claims almost all of the South China Sea, a vast area spanning approximately 3.6 million square kilometres (1.38 million square miles) that is rich in hydrocarbons and one of the world’s major shipping routes.

Vietnam, the Philippines, Taiwan, Malaysia and Brunei are claimants to various parts of the sea.

Ralph Cossa, chairman of the Honolulu-based Pacific Forum research institute, said “the challenge to freedom of navigation is a global one”.

But the challenges posed are particularly worrying when it comes to the rival superpowers China and the US.

“I don’t think anyone wants a direct conflict or is looking to start a fight,” Cossa said.

“But I worry that Chinese assertiveness could result in an accident that it would prove difficult for either side to walk away or back down from,” Cossa said.

Speaking on the sidelines of the Institute of Strategic and International Studies’ Asia Pacific Roundtable 2025 summit in Kuala Lumpur earlier this year, Do Thanh Hai, deputy director-general at Vietnam’s East Sea Institute Diplomatic Academy, said no one will emerge unscathed from an incident in the disputed region.

“Any disruption in the South China Sea will affect all,” he told Al Jazeera.

Cambodia dismisses Thai army accusation that it breached truce and international law after incident near border.

A Thai soldier has been seriously injured by a landmine near the Cambodian border, days after both countries agreed to a ceasefire following last month’s deadly border clashes.

The soldier’s left ankle was badly damaged on Tuesday after he stepped on the device while patrolling about 1km (0.6 miles) from the Ta Moan Thom Temple in Thailand’s Surin province, the army said. He is receiving treatment in hospital.

Thai army spokesperson Major General Winthai Suvaree said the incident proved Cambodia had breached the truce and violated international agreements, including the Ottawa Convention banning landmines.

“Cambodia continues to covertly plant landmines while the Thai army has consistently adhered to peaceful approaches and has not been the initiating party,” he said.

The statement warned that if violations continued, Thailand might “exercise the right of self-defence under international law principles to resolve situations that cause Thailand to continuously lose personnel due to violations of ceasefire agreements and sovereignty encroachments by Cambodian military forces”.

Phnom Penh dismissed the accusation, insisting it has not laid new mines.

“Cambodia, as a proud and responsible State Party to the Ottawa Convention, maintains an absolute and uncompromising position: we have never used, produced, or deployed new landmines under any circumstances, and we strictly and fully honour our obligations under international law,” the Cambodian Ministry of National Defence said in a social media post.

This is the fourth landmine incident in recent weeks involving Thai soldiers along the two Southeast Asian neighbours’ disputed border. On Saturday, three soldiers were injured in a blast between Thailand’s Sisaket province and Cambodia’s Preah Vihear province.

Two earlier incidents on July 16 and 23 prompted a downgrade in diplomatic relations and triggered five days of fighting that erupted on July 24.

Those battles, the worst between the neighbours in more than a decade, saw exchanges of artillery fire and air strikes that killed at least 43 people and displaced more than 300,000 on both sides.

Thailand has accused Cambodia of planting mines on its side of the border, which stretches 817km (508 miles), with ownership of the Ta Moan Thom and 11th-century Preah Vihear temples at the heart of the dispute.

The fragile truce has held since last week when both governments agreed to allow Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) observers to monitor contested areas to prevent further fighting.