bombing

Lahore, Pakistan – As funerals were held on Saturday for more than 30 people killed in a suicide bombing at a mosque in Islamabad, analysts warned the attack could be part of a broader attempt to inflame sectarian tensions in the country.

A suicide bomber struck the Khadija Tul Kubra Mosque, a Shia place of worship, in the Tarlai Kalan area of southeastern Islamabad during Friday prayers.

In a statement, the Islamabad administration said 169 people were transferred to hospitals after rescue teams reached the site.

Hours later, a splinter faction of the ISIL (ISIS) group in Pakistan claimed responsibility on its Telegram channel, releasing an image it said showed the attacker holding a gun, his face covered and eyes blurred.

Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Asif said mosque security guards tried to intercept the suspect, who opened fire before detonating explosives among worshippers. He alleged the attacker had been travelling to and from Afghanistan.

Security officials on Saturday told Al Jazeera that several key arrests had been made, including close family members of the suicide bomber in Peshawar and Karachi. They did not clarify whether there was evidence of their involvement in the plot.

Capital under fire?

Islamabad had seen a relative lull in violence in past years, but things have changed in recent months. The bombing marked the second major attack in the federal capital since a suicide blast targeted a district court in November last year.

Abdul Sayed, a Sweden-based analyst on conflict in Afghanistan and Pakistan, said ISIL’s Pakistan branch, referred to as ISPP, claimed responsibility for what appears to be its deadliest operation in the country since its formation in May 2019.

“Since its formation, ISPP has carried out approximately 100 attacks, more than two-thirds of which occurred in Balochistan. These attacks include three suicide bombings targeting Afghan Taliban members, police, and security forces in Balochistan,” Sayed, founder of the Oxus Watch research platform, told Al Jazeera.

Pakistan has witnessed a steady rise in violence from fighters over the past three years. Data released by the Pak Institute of Peace Studies for 2025 recorded 699 attacks nationwide, a 34 percent increase compared with the previous year.

Islamabad has repeatedly accused the Afghan Taliban, who returned to power in August 2021 following the withdrawal of United States forces, of providing a haven to armed groups that launch attacks inside Pakistan from Afghan soil.

The Afghan Taliban condemned Friday’s mosque bombing and have consistently denied sheltering anti-Pakistan fighters.

In October, this very issue ignited the deadliest border clashes between the two sides in years, which killed dozens of people and led to evacuations on both sides.

A United Nations report last year stated that the Afghan Taliban provides support to the Pakistan Taliban, or TTP, which has carried out multiple attacks across Pakistan.

The report also said the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) has ties with both the TTP and ISIL’s affiliate in Khorasan Province (ISKP), indicating a convergence of groups with distinct but intersecting agendas.

Just days ago, Pakistan’s military concluded a weeklong security operation in the restive southwestern Balochistan province, claiming the deaths of 216 fighters in targeted offensives.

A military statement on Thursday said it followed the province-wide attacks by the separatist BLA carried out to “destabilise the peace of Balochistan”.

Fahad Nabeel, who heads the Islamabad-based consultancy Geopolitical Insights, said Pakistan is likely to maintain its hardened stance towards Kabul, citing what he described as Afghanistan’s failure to act against anti-Pakistan fighter groups.

He added that officials would probably share preliminary findings of the investigation and point to a possible Afghan link.

“The upward trajectory of terrorist attacks witnessed last year is expected to continue this year. Serious efforts need to be made to identify networks of facilitators based in and around major urban centres, who are facilitating militant groups to carry out terrorist attacks,” Nabeel told Al Jazeera.

Sectarian fault lines

Manzar Zaidi, a Lahore-based security analyst, cautioned against equating the latest bombing with the district court attack last year.

“The last year’s attack was essentially a target on a state institution, whereas this one was plainly sectarian in nature, something that has certainly gone done in the recent times, and that is why I will urge caution against a knee-jerk reaction to conflate the two incidents,” he told Al Jazeera.

Shia make up more than 20 percent of Pakistan’s population of about 250 million. The country has experienced periodic bouts of sectarian violence, particularly in Kurram district in northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, which borders Afghanistan.

Regional tensions have added to domestic anxieties.

Zaidi said armed groups in the region backed by Iran remain alert amid “the simmering geopolitical tensions”.

“For Pakistan, it really has to keep a close eye on how things develop in Kurram region, where things can get out of control and there could be a fallout. The region currently has an uneasy peace; that can easily be instabilised,” he said.

Kurram, a tribal district bordering Afghanistan, has a roughly equal Sunni and Shia population. It has long been a flashpoint for sectarian clashes and witnessed prolonged fighting last year.

Nabeel said a timely conclusion to the investigation could shape the government’s response and help prevent the attack from becoming a trigger for wider sectarian unrest.

“However, the possibility of low-intensity sectarian targeting in different parts of the country is likely,” he warned.

Sayed added that an examination of Pakistani nationals who joined ISIL and affiliated groups shows that many came from anti-Shia Sunni armed organisations.

“The role of these sectarian elements is therefore an important factor in understanding such attacks. Moreover, such attacks appear significant in facilitating further recruitment of anti-Shia Sunni extremists within Pakistan, thereby contributing to IS efforts to strengthen its networks in the country,” he said.

Ukraine’s Zelenskyy welcomed possible one-week pause after Russian attacks left homes with no heat in plummeting temperatures.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has welcomed United States President Donald Trump’s announcement that Russia will not attack Kyiv and “various” Ukrainian towns for seven days as civilians struggle with a lack of heating amid freezing winter temperatures.

In a post on social media on Thursday, Zelenskyy said that Trump’s comments earlier in the day were an “important statement” about “the possibility of providing security for Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities during this extreme winter period”.

Zelenskyy said that the pause in bombing had been discussed by negotiators during recent ceasefire talks in the United Arab Emirates, and that they “expect the agreements to be implemented”.

“De-escalation steps contribute to real progress toward ending the war,” the Ukrainian leader added.

Trump said earlier on Thursday that Russian President Vladimir Putin had agreed to his request not to fire on Ukraine’s capital Kyiv for a week due to severely low temperatures.

“I personally asked President Putin not to fire into Kyiv and various towns for a week, and he agreed to do that,” Trump said at a cabinet meeting, citing the “extraordinary cold” in the region.

The announcements came as Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko said on the Telegram messaging app on Thursday that 454 residential buildings remain without heating in the city, as the Ukrainian capital struggles to restore power to homes following repeated Russian bombings targeting power and heating infrastructure in recent weeks.

Temperatures are forecast to drop to -23 degrees Celsius (-9.4 degrees Fahrenheit) overnight in the Ukrainian capital this week.

Russia’s capital Moscow has experienced its heaviest snowfall in 200 years during the month of January, the meteorological observatory of Lomonosov Moscow State University said on Thursday, according to Russia’s state TASS news agency.

Russia and Ukraine also exchanged the bodies of soldiers killed in the war on Thursday, officials from both countries confirmed.

Similar exchanges have been agreed to during previous rounds of ceasefire talks. However, a breakthrough on ending Russia’s nearly four-year war on Ukraine has remained elusive.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov continued to pour cold water on ceasefire prospects on Thursday, saying that Moscow had yet to see a 20-point ceasefire plan that he said had been “reworked” by Ukraine and its allies.

Russia’s top diplomat also claimed that Ukraine had used brief pauses in fighting to “push” people to the front lines, according to TASS.