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News Analysis: Trump’s Strait of Hormuz blockade risks clash with China

President Trump responded to the collapse of high-stakes negotiations with Iran by escalating the conflict on Sunday, ordering a full blockade of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz — a risky move that could drive global oil prices higher and provoke confrontation with a far more formidable adversary.

No country relies more heavily on the strait than China, which receives nearly half of its oil imports through the international waterway. In recent days, Beijing has warned that access to its shipping lanes “must be guaranteed.”

Trump administration officials believe the blockade could compel China to pressure Tehran into making further concessions, following Beijing’s crucial role earlier this month in convincing Iran to accept an initial ceasefire.

But the decision by U.S. diplomats to tie negotiations over the status of the strait to those over the fate of Iran’s nuclear program — a matter of torturous diplomacy for the last quarter-century — could make it harder to secure a breakthrough.

In the meantime, a full blockade of the strait could force China to become more directly involved in a conflict that is already heightening tensions with Washington.

On Saturday, reports that Beijing could be preparing to send advanced missile and air defense systems to Iran prompted anger from the White House.

“If China does that, China is gonna have big problems,” Trump told reporters.

It is a high-stakes moment in the world’s most important bilateral relationship, ahead of a closely watched summit between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing next month that both sides had hoped would help stabilize relations.

The United States and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire in the war on Tuesday — on the condition that Iran would allow full freedom of navigation through the strait, a vital commercial artery that was treated for decades as an open, international waterway.

Marathon negotiations in Islamabad, Pakistan, over the weekend between senior U.S. and Iranian officials failed to secure a long-term agreement.

Vice President JD Vance said the central sticking point was Iran’s insistence on maintaining its nuclear program. But Tehran also signaled that shipping through the strait would not return to prewar conditions, pledging to control traffic and impose transit tolls — a scenario that could result in permanently higher global oil prices, a political nightmare for the Trump administration entering the midterm elections.

Trump’s threat to completely shut down traffic through the strait on Sunday may also lead to a temporary spike in oil prices, with experts warning the market could experience barrels costing $150 or more if a blockade persists.

Describing his plans to Fox News on Sunday, Trump said there would be no exceptions to the U.S. blockade for Tehran’s “friends.” Throughout the war, Chinese-bound vessels were granted special passage by Iranian authorities.

“We’re putting on a complete blockade. We’re not going to let Iran make money on selling oil to people that they like and not people that they don’t like, or whatever,” Trump said.

“It won’t be a percentage,” he added. “It won’t be a friend of yours, like a country that’s an ally or a country that’s your friend. It’s all or nothing.”

Trump also wrote on social media that he had ordered the Navy to “seek and interdict every vessel in International Waters that has paid a toll to Iran” — and to “blow to hell” any Iranian assets that open fire on ships.

Beijing did not immediately respond to the proposal. But it has walked a fine line over six weeks of war in the region, describing open waters in the strait as of global interest, while avoiding any condemnation of Iran’s assertion of control.

China’s main energy trading partners in the gulf — Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait — have all advocated for a return to the status quo ante for the passage, pressing allies to reject Iranian control as the new normal.

“Keeping the area safe and stable and ensuring unimpeded passage serves the common interest of the international community,” a Chinese official said last week.

“We hope that all sides can work together,” the official added, “for the early resumption of normal traffic at the strait.”

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Trump will travel to Beijing for rescheduled China trip May 14-15, after delay due to Iran war

President Trump will travel to Beijing for a rescheduled summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping on May 14 and 15, the White House announced on Wednesday.

Trump had been scheduled to travel to China later this month but previously announced he was delaying the trip so he could be in Washington to help steward the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran. The Republican president had announced a rescheduled trip even though the war in Iran continues and the U.S. is pressing Tehran to accept a ceasefire proposal.

The president and First Lady Melania Trump also plan to host Xi and his wife, Peng Liyuan, for a White House visit later this year, press secretary Karoline Leavitt said.

Leavitt, when asked if the new dates for Trump’s trip could suggest he believes the Iran war could end soon, offered an optimistic tone that the conflict could reach an endgame before he travels.

“We’ve always estimated four to six weeks,” Leavitt responded. “So you could do the math on that.”

The United States and Israel launched the attacks against Iran on Feb. 28.

The China trip had been planned for months but began to unravel as Trump pressured Beijing and other world powers to use their military might to protect the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for the flow of oil. The strait has been effectively closed as Iran targets energy infrastructure and traffic through it.

Trump said last week while meeting with Irish Prime Minister Micheál Martin in the Oval Office that he would be going to China in five or six weeks’ time instead of at the end of the month. He said he would be “resetting” his visit with Xi.

“We’re working with China — they were fine with it,” Trump said then. “I look forward to seeing President Xi. He looks forward to seeing me, I think.”

Trump’s visit to China is seen as an opportunity to build on a fragile trade truce between the two superpowers, but it has become tangled in his effort to find an endgame to the war in Iran. Soon after pressing China and other nations to send warships to secure access to Middle Eastern oil, Trump indicated last week that his travel plans depended on Beijing’s response, though he added then that the U.S. didn’t need help from the allies that rebuffed his request.

Madhani writes for the Associated Press.

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