Armed

Lahore, Pakistan – As funerals were held on Saturday for more than 30 people killed in a suicide bombing at a mosque in Islamabad, analysts warned the attack could be part of a broader attempt to inflame sectarian tensions in the country.

A suicide bomber struck the Khadija Tul Kubra Mosque, a Shia place of worship, in the Tarlai Kalan area of southeastern Islamabad during Friday prayers.

In a statement, the Islamabad administration said 169 people were transferred to hospitals after rescue teams reached the site.

Hours later, a splinter faction of the ISIL (ISIS) group in Pakistan claimed responsibility on its Telegram channel, releasing an image it said showed the attacker holding a gun, his face covered and eyes blurred.

Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Asif said mosque security guards tried to intercept the suspect, who opened fire before detonating explosives among worshippers. He alleged the attacker had been travelling to and from Afghanistan.

Security officials on Saturday told Al Jazeera that several key arrests had been made, including close family members of the suicide bomber in Peshawar and Karachi. They did not clarify whether there was evidence of their involvement in the plot.

Capital under fire?

Islamabad had seen a relative lull in violence in past years, but things have changed in recent months. The bombing marked the second major attack in the federal capital since a suicide blast targeted a district court in November last year.

Abdul Sayed, a Sweden-based analyst on conflict in Afghanistan and Pakistan, said ISIL’s Pakistan branch, referred to as ISPP, claimed responsibility for what appears to be its deadliest operation in the country since its formation in May 2019.

“Since its formation, ISPP has carried out approximately 100 attacks, more than two-thirds of which occurred in Balochistan. These attacks include three suicide bombings targeting Afghan Taliban members, police, and security forces in Balochistan,” Sayed, founder of the Oxus Watch research platform, told Al Jazeera.

Pakistan has witnessed a steady rise in violence from fighters over the past three years. Data released by the Pak Institute of Peace Studies for 2025 recorded 699 attacks nationwide, a 34 percent increase compared with the previous year.

Islamabad has repeatedly accused the Afghan Taliban, who returned to power in August 2021 following the withdrawal of United States forces, of providing a haven to armed groups that launch attacks inside Pakistan from Afghan soil.

The Afghan Taliban condemned Friday’s mosque bombing and have consistently denied sheltering anti-Pakistan fighters.

In October, this very issue ignited the deadliest border clashes between the two sides in years, which killed dozens of people and led to evacuations on both sides.

A United Nations report last year stated that the Afghan Taliban provides support to the Pakistan Taliban, or TTP, which has carried out multiple attacks across Pakistan.

The report also said the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) has ties with both the TTP and ISIL’s affiliate in Khorasan Province (ISKP), indicating a convergence of groups with distinct but intersecting agendas.

Just days ago, Pakistan’s military concluded a weeklong security operation in the restive southwestern Balochistan province, claiming the deaths of 216 fighters in targeted offensives.

A military statement on Thursday said it followed the province-wide attacks by the separatist BLA carried out to “destabilise the peace of Balochistan”.

Fahad Nabeel, who heads the Islamabad-based consultancy Geopolitical Insights, said Pakistan is likely to maintain its hardened stance towards Kabul, citing what he described as Afghanistan’s failure to act against anti-Pakistan fighter groups.

He added that officials would probably share preliminary findings of the investigation and point to a possible Afghan link.

“The upward trajectory of terrorist attacks witnessed last year is expected to continue this year. Serious efforts need to be made to identify networks of facilitators based in and around major urban centres, who are facilitating militant groups to carry out terrorist attacks,” Nabeel told Al Jazeera.

Sectarian fault lines

Manzar Zaidi, a Lahore-based security analyst, cautioned against equating the latest bombing with the district court attack last year.

“The last year’s attack was essentially a target on a state institution, whereas this one was plainly sectarian in nature, something that has certainly gone done in the recent times, and that is why I will urge caution against a knee-jerk reaction to conflate the two incidents,” he told Al Jazeera.

Shia make up more than 20 percent of Pakistan’s population of about 250 million. The country has experienced periodic bouts of sectarian violence, particularly in Kurram district in northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, which borders Afghanistan.

Regional tensions have added to domestic anxieties.

Zaidi said armed groups in the region backed by Iran remain alert amid “the simmering geopolitical tensions”.

“For Pakistan, it really has to keep a close eye on how things develop in Kurram region, where things can get out of control and there could be a fallout. The region currently has an uneasy peace; that can easily be instabilised,” he said.

Kurram, a tribal district bordering Afghanistan, has a roughly equal Sunni and Shia population. It has long been a flashpoint for sectarian clashes and witnessed prolonged fighting last year.

Nabeel said a timely conclusion to the investigation could shape the government’s response and help prevent the attack from becoming a trigger for wider sectarian unrest.

“However, the possibility of low-intensity sectarian targeting in different parts of the country is likely,” he warned.

Sayed added that an examination of Pakistani nationals who joined ISIL and affiliated groups shows that many came from anti-Shia Sunni armed organisations.

“The role of these sectarian elements is therefore an important factor in understanding such attacks. Moreover, such attacks appear significant in facilitating further recruitment of anti-Shia Sunni extremists within Pakistan, thereby contributing to IS efforts to strengthen its networks in the country,” he said.

After several years of suspension, political parties in Burkina Faso have been formally dissolved by the military government, which has also seized all their assets in a move analysts say is a major blow for democracy in the West African nation.

In a decree issued on Thursday, the government, led by Captain Ibrahim Traore, scrapped all laws which established and regulated political parties, accusing them of failing to comply with guidelines.

The troubled West African nation is struggling with violence from armed groups linked to ISIL (ISIS) and al-Qaeda. It is one of a growing number of West and Central African nations to have undergone coups in recent years.

Traore seized power in September 2022, eight months after an earlier military coup had already overthrown the democratically elected President Roch Marc Kabore.

Despite strong criticism by rights groups and opposition politicians of his authoritarian approach, 37-year-old Traore has successfully built up an online cult-like following among pan-Africanists, with many likening him to the late Burkinabe revolutionary leader, Thomas Sankara.

Traore’s anti-colonial and anti-imperial pronouncements are often shown in high-definition, AI-generated videos that have gained him widespread admiration across the internet.

But the decision to ban political parties does not sit well for democracy, Dakar-based analyst Beverly Ochieng of the Control Risks intelligence firm, told Al Jazeera.

“The military government will [remain] highly influential, especially after a recent decree appointing Traore in a supervisory capacity in the judiciary,” Ochieng said, referring to a December 2023 constitutional change which placed courts directly under government control.

Going forward, “there will be very limited division of powers or autonomy across the civic and political space,” Ochieng said, adding that the military government will likely keep extending its stay in power.

Why have political parties been banned?

The Burkinabe government claims the existing political parties were not following the codes which established them.

In a televised statement following a Council of Ministers meeting on Thursday, when the new decree was approved, Interior Minister Emile Zerbo said the decision was part of a broader effort to “rebuild the state” after alleged widespread abuses and dysfunction in the country’s multiparty system.

A government review, he said, had found that the multiplication of political parties had fuelled divisions and weakened social cohesion in the country.

“The government believes that the proliferation of political parties has led to excesses, fostering division among citizens and weakening the social fabric,” Zerbo said.

He did not give details of the political parties’ alleged excesses.

How did political parties operate in the past?

Before the 2022 coup, which brought the current military leadership to power, Burkina Faso had more than 100 registered political parties, with 15 represented in parliament after the 2020 general elections.

The largest was the ruling People’s Movement for Progress (MPP), which had 56 of 127 seats in parliament. It was followed by the Congress for Democracy and Progress, with 20 seats, and the New Era for Democracy with 13 seats.

But the civilian government faced months of protests as thousands took to the streets to demonstrate against growing insecurity from armed groups in large parts of the country.

In 2022, Traore took power, promising to put an end to violence by armed groups. He also promised the regional Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) bloc that his government would hold elections by 2024.

But political parties were banned from holding rallies after the 2022 coup and, a month before the 2024 deadline, Traore’s government postponed elections to 2029 after holding a national conference, which was boycotted by several political parties.

Burkina Faso, along with Mali and Niger, withdrew from ECOWAS to form the Alliance of Sahel States, a new economic and military alliance in January last year. They also withdrew from the International Criminal Court (ICC).

In July 2025, Traore’s government dissolved the Independent National Electoral Commission, saying the agency was too expensive.

Has insecurity worsened under Traore?

Landlocked Burkina Faso is currently grappling with several armed groups which have seized control of land in the country’s north, south and west, amounting to about 60 percent of the country, according to the Africa Center for Strategic Studies (ACSS).

The most active groups are the al-Qaeda-backed Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) and Islamic State Sahel Province (ISSP), which also operate in neighbouring Mali and Niger.

The groups want to rule over territory according to strict Islamic laws and are opposed to secularism.

By December 2024, all three Alliance of Sahel States countries had cut ties with former colonial power France and instead turned to Russian fighters for security support after accusing Paris of overly meddling in their countries.

Between them, they expelled more than 5,000 French soldiers who had previously provided support in the fight against armed groups. A smaller contingent of about 2,000 Russian security personnel is now stationed across the three countries.

But violence in Burkina Faso and the larger Sahel region has worsened.

Fatalities have tripled in the three years since Traore took power to reach 17,775 – mostly civilians – by last May, compared with the three years prior, when combined recorded deaths were 6,630, the ACSS recorded.

In September, Human Rights Watch accused JNIM and ISSP of massacring civilians in northern Djibo, Gorom Gorom and other towns, and of causing the displacement of tens of thousands since 2016.

HRW has also similarly accused the Burkinabe military and an allied militia group, Volunteers for the Defense of the Homeland, of atrocities against civilians suspected of cooperating with armed groups. In attacks on northern Nondin and Soro villages in early 2024, the military killed 223 civilians, including 56 babies and children, HRW said in an April 2024 report.

Mali and Niger have similarly recorded attacks by the armed groups. Malian capital Bamako has been sealed off from fuel supplies by JNIM fighters for months.

On Wednesday night, the Nigerien military held off heavy attacks on the airport in the capital city, Niamey. No armed group has yet claimed responsibility.

Is the civic space shrinking in Burkina Faso?

Since it took power, the government in Ouagadougou has been accused by rights groups of cracking down on dissent and restricting press and civic freedoms.

All political activities were first suspended immediately after the coup.

In April 2024, the government also took aim at the media, ordering internet service providers to suspend access to the websites and other digital platforms of the BBC, Voice of America and HRW.

Meanwhile, authorities have forced dozens of government critics into military service and sent them to fight against armed groups. Several prominent journalists and judges have been arrested after speaking out against increasingly restrictive rules on press and judiciary freedom.

Abdoul Gafarou Nacro, a deputy prosecutor at the country’s High Court, was one of at least five senior members of the judiciary to be forcibly conscripted and sent to fight armed groups in August 2024 after speaking out against the military government. Nacro’s whereabouts are currently unknown.

In April 2025, three abducted journalists resurfaced in a social media video 10 days after they went missing, in one example. All three – Guezouma Sanogo, Boukari Ouoba, and Luc Pagbelguem – were wearing military fatigues in an apparent forced conscription. They have all since been released.

However, several others, including some opposition politicians, are still missing.

Kurmin Wali, Nigeria – Like most Sundays in Kurmin Wali, the morning of January 18 began with early preparations for church and, later on, shopping at the weekly market.

But by 9:30am, it became clear to residents of the village in the Kajuru local government area of Nigeria’s Kaduna State that this Sunday would not be a normal one.

Gunmen known locally as bandits arrived in the village in numbers, armed with AK47 rifles.

They broke down doors and ordered people out of their homes and the village’s three churches.

They blocked the village exits before taking people and marching dozens into the forest at gunpoint.

Some captives were taken from church, while others were forcibly kidnapped as gunmen moved from house to house.

In one house, more than 30 members of an extended family were abducted.

Jummai Idris, a relative of the family that was taken, remains inconsolable.

She was home the day of the attack and did not go out.

“When I heard shouting, I took two children and we hid behind a house. That was how they [the bandits] missed us,” she told Al Jazeera.

“But I heard every shout, every cry and footstep as they picked up people from our house and surrounding houses,” she added, between sobs.

With tears streaming down her face, Idris recounts how she kept calling out the names of her missing family members – men, women and children.

Her house sits on the edge of the village, close to a bandits’ crossing point.

“I don’t know what they are doing to them now. I don’t know if they’ve eaten or not,” she said.

A total of 177 people were abducted that day. Eleven escaped their captors, but about a quarter of Kurmin Wali’s population remains captive.

Initially, state officials denied the attack had taken place.

In the immediate aftermath, Kaduna’s police commissioner called reports a “falsehood peddled by conflict entrepreneurs”.

Finally, two days later, Nigeria’s national police spokesman, Benjamin Hundeyin, admitted an “abduction” had indeed occurred on Sunday. He said police had launched security operations with the aim of “locating and safely rescuing the victims and restoring calm to the area”.

Uba Sani, Kaduna state’s governor, added that more than just rescuing the abductees, the government was committed to ensuring “that we establish permanent protection for them”.

There has been a police presence in Kurmin Wali since then. But it is not enough to reassure villagers.

Locals say the police are not there to protect the village, but merely to compile the names of victims they for days denied existed.

At the premises of Haske Cherubim and Seraphim Movement Church, the largest church in the village, days after the attack, a rust-coloured door lay on the floor, pulled off its hinges. Inside the mud-brick building, the site was chaotic.

Plastic chairs overturned in panic were strewn around the room – just as the kidnappers had left them.

‘Only the recklessly bold can stay’

The church building was where the captors brought everyone before marching them into the forest surrounding the village.

Residents said the gunmen divided themselves into different groups, targeting homes and churches in the village.

Maigirma Shekarau was among those taken before he managed to escape.

“They tied us, beat us up, before arriving us into the bush. We trekked a long distance before taking a break,” he said of his journey with his captors.

Shekarau, a father of five, was holding his three-year-old daughter when he and others were taken.

“When we reached an abandoned village, I ducked inside a room with my little daughter when the attackers weren’t looking. I closed the door and waited. After what seemed like eternity, and sure they were gone, I opened the door and walked back home, avoiding the bush path,” he said, now back in the village.

But on returning home, his heart sank. He and his three-year-old were the only ones who made it home. The rest of the family is still held by the kidnappers.

Standing in a parched field of long dried grass, Shekarau says the village no longer feels like home.

The village chief was also taken, but managed to escape. He now presides over a community hopeful for the return of the missing – but too scared to stay.

“Everyone is on edge. People are confused and don’t know what to do. Some haven’t eaten. There are entire families that are missing,” said Ishaku Danazumi, the village chief.

Danazumi says the kidnappers regularly visit and loot the village grain stores and the villagers’ possessions, including mobile phones.

Two days after the attack, residents said the bandits rode through their village again.

On that day, the community also received a ransom demand.

“They accused us of taking 10 motorcycles they hid in the bush to evade soldiers who operated here the week before,” Danazumi said. “But we didn’t see those bikes.”

The chief said the captors told him the return of the 10 bikes was a precondition for the return of his people.

But deep inside, he knows, more demands will follow.

In the village, residents wait in their thatch and mud-brick houses, hoping for their loved ones to return.

But because of fear and the tense situation, many are leaving the farming community.

“Anyone thinking about remaining in this village needs to reconsider,” said Panchan Madami, a resident who also survived the attack.

“Only the recklessly bold can stay with the current state of security here.”

Villagers said that before the January 18 attack, 21 people kidnapped by the bandits were returned to them after a ransom was paid. But just two days later, a quarter of the village was taken.

“It will be stupid to stay here, hoping things will be OK,” added Madami.

The government says it will establish a military post to protect the community from further attacks. But that is not comforting enough for Idris, who has also made up her mind to leave.

“I’m not coming back here,” she said, gathering her belongings to leave the village where she grew up and married. “I just hope the rest of my family gets back.”