Trump’s approval ratings just hit a new low. A Latino voter shift could reshape the midterms
WASHINGTON — With the Iran war in its fifth week, support for President Trump is at its lowest point ever, with a growing body of recent polling showing him losing ground with key voting blocs that helped power his 2024 victory.
While public dissatisfaction is evident among many groups surveyed, the decline in support for the president has been most pronounced among Latino voters.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll released March 24 found 36% of voters approve of the president’s job performance, the lowest it has been during his second term. The poll found 62% disapproved.
Other polls, such as the AP-NORC poll, placed the figure at 38%.
In all, the president is underwater on almost every single public policy issue. With the exception of crime, which sits around 47% approval, he has recorded no gains in any polled category, according to experts.
On immigration, the president’s marquee issue, approval fell from roughly 45% in late 2025 to 39% in February, according to Reuters.
About 1 in 4 respondents approved of Trump’s handling of the economy, Reuters found, as domestic gas prices surged by more than $1 per gallon after fighting commenced last month. The share of Republicans who disapprove of his handling of cost-of-living issues rose 7 points in one week to 34%.
The shift comes amid growing economic unease and amplified backlash over the war in Iran. About 1 in 3 Americans approve of the military operation, according to a Reuters survey.
And a growing divide among prominent conservatives has emerged over the U.S. involvement in the Middle East.
The clashes have played out in public and are exposing tensions within the Republican Party, with conservative commentators such as Megyn Kelly openly questioning whether the war is in America’s best interest.
“This is not a foreign policy that makes sense and it is not what Trump ran on. It is, in many ways, a betrayal of his campaign promises, what he sold himself as and of his MAGA base,” Kelly said earlier this month.
Other conservative pundits, including Candace Owens, Tucker Carlson and Nick Fuentes, are also opposed.
But the real damage is showing up in the one place Trump can’t afford to lose: his base.
Trump entered his second term buoyed by historic gains with Latino voters. Exit polls indicated he improved his standing with them by more than 20 percentage points in 2024 compared with his 2016 victory, fueling widespread narratives that the demographic was undergoing a durable shift toward Republicans. In all, 48% of Latinos gave him their support in the last election.
Since then, his approval among Latino voters has plummeted to 22%, according to a March 2026 analysis by the Economist.
In a bipartisan poll by UnidosUS released in November, 14% of Latino voters said their lives were better after Trump took office, while 39% said they had gotten worse.
The president’s rapport with Latinos reflects a deep dissatisfaction with economic conditions, according to Mike Madrid, a veteran California Republican political consultant and expert on Latino voting trends.
“Overwhelmingly, this is a function of the economy and affordability,” he said. “Latino voters moved away from Biden-Harris for the exact same reasons that they’re moving away from Donald Trump right now.”
Research and polling suggests Latino voters prioritize cost-of-living issues — such as housing, wages and inflation — over immigration, a topic often emphasized in national messaging.
“It’s not even close,” Madrid said. “Immigration is not even a top 5 issue for Latino voters.”
Madrid suggested the demographic rallying is less a “reversion” and more a reflection of a rapidly changing electorate.
“Latinos have emerged as the only true swing vote in America,” he said. “And they’re rejecting whichever party is in power.”
These volatile, double-digit voting shifts directly contrast more stable voting patterns among other major demographic groups, including the Black and white electorates, where shifts from cycle to cycle tend to be just a few points.
The reason: dramatic turnout fluctuations. Who decides to show out or stay home on election day tends to change by the year. It’s compounded by the fact that there are far more first-time Latino voters than in any other category.
Polling this month suggests Trump is also losing ground among young voters, another group that contributed to his 2024 gains.
More than half of men under the age of 30 supported Trump in that election, helping him turn several swing states.
In just a year, that demographic has cratered by 20 points.
“Trump won in 2024 because of men. They are abandoning him right now,” CNN senior data analyst Harry Enten said Tuesday.
The reversals could have massive implications for the November midterm elections, particularly in competitive congressional districts where small swings could determine control of the House.
Republicans have warned that if they lose hold of their narrow congressional majority, Trump is likely to face a third impeachment.
UCLA political scientist Matt Barreto said movement away from Republicans is already visible in real-world election outcomes, not just polling.
“We’ve already seen in the Virginia and New Jersey legislative and gubernatorial elections really large shifts in the Latino vote, 25 points back to the Democratic Party,” Barreto said. He added that similar patterns have emerged in places such as Miami and Texas, where Democratic candidates have outperformed expectations with strong Latino support.
Latino Democrats who sat out the 2024 election are returning to the electorate, while some Latino Republicans are disengaging, he said.
That dynamic could prove decisive in November. There are more than 40 congressional districts where the number of registered Latino voters exceeds the margin of victory in 2024, Barreto said. Many of them are closely divided between the parties.
“At the district level, the Latino vote is going to make a huge impact,” he said.
