The holidays are over, but the Christmas Adventurers no doubt are still celebrating. The “Marty Supreme” blimp rests, for now, in its hanger. Chloé Zhao is clearing her mind. And I still have that Neil Diamond song stuck in my head.
All of which brings us to the unveiling of nominations for the 98th Oscars on Thursday. Might Paul Thomas Anderson’s “One Battle After Another” or Ryan Coogler’s “Sinners” tie or even break the record for most nods for a single movie? Fourteen is the magic number, held by “All About Eve,” “Titanic” and “La La Land.” Somewhere, James Cameron is clutching his crown tightly.
Here are my predictions in key categories.
Picture
“Bugonia”
“Frankenstein”
“Hamnet”
“It Was Just an Accident”
“Marty Supreme”
“One Battle After Another”
“The Secret Agent”
“Sentimental Value”
“Sinners”
“Train Dreams”
Possible surprise: “Weapons”
Possible snub: “It Was Just an Accident”
No “Wicked: For Good”? No “Avatar: Fire and Ash”? The pair of high-profile sequels failed to live up to their predecessors, critically and commercially, leaving the door open for the academy’s international contingent — 24% of Oscar voters live outside the United States — to wave the flags of their countries. The last two years we’ve had two international features nominated for best picture. “Anatomy of a Fall” and “The Zone of Interest” made the cut in 2024; “Emilia Pérez” and “I’m Still Here” found their way in last year. It’s possible we see a record three this year: France‘s “It Was Just an Accident,” Brazil’s “The Secret Agent” and Norway’s “Sentimental Value.”
Voters do have other options for the back end of the 10-picture slate. “F1” looks on track to earn Oscar nods for film editing, sound and visual effects. Maybe that below-the-line love catapults it in. Zach Cregger’s “Weapons” earned a place at the Producers Guild, even with writer-director Cregger off filming “Resident Evil,” removing him from the awards circuit. Perhaps Aunt Gladys has been busy casting spells in her bedroom, working her magic on the film’s behalf, though I’m not sure how she’d obtain a personal item from more than 10,000 voters. She’d have to be busier than Diane Warren.
Director
Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another”
Ryan Coogler, “Sinners”
Jafar Panahi, “It Was Just an Accident”
Josh Safdie, “Marty Supreme”
Chloé Zhao, “Hamnet”
Possible surprise: Guillermo del Toro, “Frankenstein”
Possible snub: Panahi
The Directors Guild nominated Anderson, Coogler, Safdie, Zhao and del Toro. But the Oscar field has included one international director for seven straight years, making it likely that dissident filmmaker Panahi, a vocal critic of Iran’s authoritarian regime, earns a nomination for his blistering movie about resistance. That spot could also go to Joachim Trier, the director and co-writer of “Sentimental Value,” a family drama that sneaks in some sharp satire about the sorry state of filmmaking these days.
Actor
Timothée Chalamet, “Marty Supreme”
Leonardo DiCaprio, “One Battle After Another”
Ethan Hawke, “Blue Moon”
Michael B. Jordan, “Sinners”
Wagner Moura, “The Secret Agent”
Possible surprise: Jesse Plemons, “Bugonia”
Possible snub: Moura
If Chalamet had won last year for playing Bob Dylan in “A Complete Unknown,” he would have become the youngest lead actor Oscar winner in history. That he lost to Adrien Brody (“The Brutalist”), still the only actor to win the trophy under the age of 30 (for “The Pianist”), adds a nice little twist to this bit of Oscar trivia. As it is, Chalamet seems well-positioned to eradicate voters’ bias against all the young dudes, his charismatic performance keeping you in the corner of “Marty Supreme’s” often repellent narcissist.
Actress
(Agata Grzybowska/Focus Features)
Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet”
Rose Byrne, “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”
Chase Infiniti, “One Battle After Another”
Renate Reinsve, “Sentimental Value”
Emma Stone, “Bugonia”
Possible surprise: Kate Hudson, “Song Sung Blue”
Possible snub: Infiniti
Demi loves her. So does Reba and, of course, her mom, Goldie. In fact, it’d be surprising to find a mononym star who hasn’t stumped for Hudson and her star turn “Song Sung Blue,” though, thinking about it, Björk doesn’t feel like the right fit for a movie about a husband-and-wife Neil Diamond tribute band. (But I bet she’d be bringing down the house covering “I Am… I Said.”) It’s easy enough to root for Hudson and her comeback turn (was she ever really gone?), which could lead to her first nomination since her spectacular arrival a quarter-century ago (!) in “Almost Famous.” But among the five likely nominees, who would you boot? I’m a believer in each and every one of them.
Supporting actor
Benicio Del Toro, “One Battle After Another”
Jacob Elordi, “Frankenstein”
Paul Mescal, “Hamnet”
Sean Penn, “One Battle After Another”
Stellan Skarsgård, “Sentimental Value”
Skarsgård, so good as the irascible father and legendary auteur in “Sentimental Value,” didn’t get a nomination from the Actors Awards, guaranteeing this category will keep us guessing until the envelope is opened. Only three actors (Marcia Gay Harden for “Pollock,” Christoph Waltz for “Django Unchained” and Regina King for “If Beale Street Could Talk”) have won an Oscar without an actors guild nod. But Skarsgård has already had a moment, winning the Golden Globe and giving perhaps the night’s best speech, self-deprecating — talking about how raising eight children taught him how to be a bad father — and passionate. “Cinema should be seen in cinemas.” That might not move Ted Sarandos, but I’m sure he picked up a few votes with that capper. (Note: No surprise or snub here. These are the nominees.)
Supporting actress
Odessa A’zion, “Marty Supreme”
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, “Sentimental Value”
Amy Madigan, “Weapons”
Wunmi Mosaku, “Sinners”
Teyana Taylor, “One Battle After Another”
Possible surprise: Ariana Grande, “Wicked: For Good”
Possible snub: A’zion
“Wicked” won two Oscars last year — production design and costume design — from 10 nominations, recognition that included picture and nods for actors Cynthia Erivo and Grande. The meh reviews (though the movie has its fans among critics) and diminished box office lowered Oscar expectations for the sequel. But seeing Grande, whose Glinda is the center of the new film, slip down the list of expected nominees has been one of more surprising developments of this awards season. She might still turn up, but I’m thinking the field belongs to the quartet of women from best picture nominees plus the undeniable, unrecognizable turn from Madigan in “Weapons.”
Original screenplay
(Eli Ade/Warner Bros. Pictures)
“It Was Just an Accident,” Jafar Panahi
“Marty Supreme,” Josh Safdie and Ronald Bronstein
“Sorry, Baby,” Eva Victor
“Sentimental Value,” Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt
“Sinners,” Ryan Coogler
Possible surprise: “The Secret Agent,” Kleber Mendonça Filho
Possible snub: “Sorry, Baby”
With “Sorry, Baby,” writer-director Victor looked at the aftermath of sexual assault with wit and wry humor, employing an unconventional, nonchronological structure in its portrait of a woman grappling with trauma and refusing to be defined by it. “Sorry, Baby” was a hard movie to market, and it didn’t find the audience it deserved when it arrived in theaters over the summer. But its fans are a passionate bunch — Julia Roberts gave it a powerful plug at the Golden Globes, calling Victor her “hero” — and I’m wishing, hoping, thinking there are enough of them to put the film among the nominated screenplays.
Adapted screenplay
“Bugonia,” Will Tracy
“Frankenstein” Guillermo del Toro
“Hamnet,” Chloé Zhao and Maggie O’Farrell
“One Battle After Another,” Paul Thomas Anderson
“Train Dreams,” Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar
This group looks set, though I’d sub in Park Chan-wook’s “No Other Choice” for “Bugonia,” Park’s movie offering a more humane — and funnier — look at ugly things people can do when desperate. Park still has never been nominated for an Oscar, despite a resume that includes “Decision to Leave” and “The Handmaiden.”
International feature
“It Was Just an Accident”
“The Secret Agent”
“Sentimental Value”
“Sirāt”
“The Voice of Hind Rajab”
Possible surprise: “No Other Choice”
Possible snub: “The Voice of Hind Rajab”
This could be the spot for Park. If “No Other Choice,” “It Was Just an Accident,” “The Secret Agent” and “Sirāt” are nominated, it would give Neon a clean sweep of the category, a heady accomplishment for the adventurous indie studio. Of course, four out of five wouldn’t be bad either, and I have a suspicion that Venice Grand Jury Prize winner “The Voice of Hind Rajab” breaks through the Neon logjam. Tunisian director Kaouther Ben Hania’s movie sensitively tells the crushing story of a 6-year-old girl killed in Gaza, blending drama and documentary in a way that has left audiences sobbing. Ben Hania has seen two of her movies nominated — the 2020 feature “The Man Who Sold His Skin” and the 2023 documentary “Four Daughters” — and “Hind Rajab” looks poised to return her to the ceremony.
Animated feature
“Arco”
“Elio”
“KPop Demon Hunters”
“Little Amélie or the Character of Rain”
“Zootopia 2”
Sony Pictures Animation’s “KPop Demon Hunters” is the most-streamed movie in Netflix’s history, passing half a billion views in late December, including one from the kids at the New Year’s Eve party at my house. “Zootopia 2” got some eyeballs, too, becoming Walt Disney Animation Studios’ highest-grossing animated film. There’s a lot of separation between that pair and the remaining contenders.
Documentary feature
“2000 Meters to Andriivka”
“The Alabama Solution”
“Cover-Up”
“My Undesirable Friends: Part 1 — Last Air in Moscow”
“The Perfect Neighbor”
Possible surprise: “Apocalypse in the Tropics”
Possible snub: “The Perfect Neighbor”
The academy’s documentary branch often seems to take a perverse delight in ignoring popular favorites (“Hoop Dreams,” “Fahrenheit 9/11,” “Grizzly Man,” “Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie”), so it would not be all that surprising to see Netflix’s chart-topping, true-crime doc “The Perfect Neighbor” become the latest casualty.
Netflix has two other contenders: “Cover-Up,” a riveting portrait of investigative journalist Seymour Hersh, directed by Laura Poitras and Mark Obenhaus, and Petra Costa’s “Apocalypse in the Tropics,” which examines Brazil’s rightward political shift. Harsh realities in Russia inform another trio of potential nominees. Critics group favorite “My Undesirable Friends” is a harrowing look at journalists in Putin’s Russia, while “2000 Meters to Andriivka” follows a Ukranian platoon’s mission to liberate a Russian village. Meanwhile, closer to home, “The Alabama Solution” is a damning indictment of prison conditions in its titular state as well as America.
Not much to feel good about here, which, given the state of the world, feels about right.