Yemeni

After years of being at the forefront of developments in Yemen – and the wider region – the Houthis have been watching recent events from the sidelines.

The Yemeni rebel group, which is backed and funded by Iran, has controlled the capital Sanaa and much of the country’s northwest since 2014. Many see it as being in part successful for the past decade because its opponents have been so divided.

The Yemeni government has been weak, unable to rule all of the areas that were nominally under its control, let alone retake territory from the Houthis.

But an ongoing Saudi-backed campaign against the separatist Southern Transitional Council (STC) now sees the government claiming control of all territory not under Houthi domination.

For the first time in years, the government, led by President Rashad al-Alimi, is exuding confidence. Al-Alimi has announced the formation of a Supreme Military Committee (SMC) that will integrate all the disparate anti-Houthi forces into the Yemeni military.

In a speech on Saturday, al-Alimi said that the SMC would “prepare for the next phase if the militias refuse peaceful solutions”, in a clear threat to the Houthis.

The Houthis appear to have recognised the threat, with several high-ranking officials expressing the need to be prepared to fight.

Survival is victory

The Houthis currently feel emboldened in their ability to withstand attacks, having become an influential regional player with their strikes on shipping in the Red Sea and Israel.

They have also held out against attacks from the United States, the United Kingdom and Israel since 2023, and prior to that, the Saudi-led coalition that backs the Yemeni government.

The Houthis see their very survival as a victory. Emerging from the mountains of Yemen’s far north, they have come back from near total defeat against the Yemeni military in the late 2000s to their current position as the de facto authority in Yemen’s most populous regions.

Fired by religious zeal and devotion to a leader, Abdel-Malik al-Houthi, who they believe to be divinely appointed, the group still thinks they are in a strong position, even if the Yemeni government is showing signs of life.

The central issue that prevented a peace deal in Yemen – the belief on both sides that total victory is achievable – remains.

For the Houthis, the Yemeni government is a mere puppet in the hands of Saudi Arabia and the West, and not worth talking to.

Instead, they are of the opinion that real negotiations can only be had with Riyadh, and are firm that the end result will be their continued presence in Sanaa.

The Houthis also think that previous attacks against Saudi Arabia have eventually led to negotiations, with missile attacks on targets like an oil storage facility in Jeddah in 2022 damaging the kingdom’s image as a safe and business-friendly country.

The Houthis, therefore, know that they retain a threat towards Saudi Arabia and the Gulf – a threat that may prevent a full-throated campaign to retake Sanaa. That means the Houthis have no need to make any rash moves, and are instead able to wait and observe the fallout from events in southern and eastern Yemen.

Houthi gamble

And yet, Saudi Arabia’s willingness in December to openly militarily confront the allies of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in Yemen may indicate a change of mentality in Riyadh.

The STC launched an offensive against Saudi-backed government troops in December, seeking an independent state in the south.

Their advance aimed to control broad swaths of southern Yemen, including the Hadramout and Mahra provinces, in defiance of warnings from Riyadh. Hadramout borders Saudi Arabia, while Mahra is close to the border.

The conflict between the Houthis and their opponents has been largely frozen since a ceasefire in 2022. During that time, negotiations between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia have taken place periodically, indicating an openness from the latter to close the chapter of its involvement in Yemen’s war.

Do the Houthis now think they are at risk of renewed attack from the Yemeni government and Saudi Arabia? Or do they feel confident that they are strong enough to deter any such attack?

A reorganised and united anti-Houthi force would be a much greater threat than the Houthis have faced since at least 2018. Then, the Houthis almost lost their most important port – Hodeidah on the Red Sea coast – before international pressure stopped the anti-Houthi advance.

Hodeidah seems to be the most obvious choice for the Yemeni government if it does decide to move militarily against the Houthis. It is easier to fight the Houthis on the coastal plain than it is in the mountains, and the international community may be less willing to step in to stop an attack after the Houthis’ conduct in the Red Sea.

Losing the port city would also be a vital blow to the Houthis economically, particularly with the group’s main backer, Iran, going through its own economic problems, and likely unable to provide the same level of support as it has previously.

The Houthis face a dilemma. Do they attack first, or do they hope that they have established enough of a deterrence to stop any Saudi-backed moves against them?

Yemen’s frozen conflict may be about to thaw – and the Houthis, increasingly alone in the region, will have to gamble on what their move will be soon.

Jan. 9 (UPI) — Some leaders of the Southern Transitional Council in Yemen announced the dissolution of the group that controlled southern Yemen territory, but others in the separatist group say it is still active amid peace talks Friday.

STC Secretary-General Abdulrahman Jalal al-Sebaihi announced the STC’s pending dissolution on Yemeni TV while attending peace talks in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. His counterparts in Yemen said his declaration was made under duress and was not true.

“The decisions relating to the Southern Transitional Council cannot be taken except by the Council in its entirety, with all its institutions, and under the chairmanship of the president,” STC spokesman Anwar al-Tamimi said in a social media post.

“This will happen as soon as the STC delegation present in Riyadh is released,” he said.

“The STC will continue positive and constructive engagement with all political initiatives, which give the southern people the opportunity to determine their future.”

A coalition backed by Saudi Arabia has taken control of the territory in southern Yemen that formerly was held by the STC, which is supported by the United Arab Emirates.

The conflicting statements regarding the STC were made after STC leader Aidarous al-Zubaidi secretly left Yemen on Tuesday night with the help of the UAE instead of traveling to Riyadh to negotiate matters in Yemen.

Instead, he was taken to Abu Dhabi on Wednesday, which raised tensions between Saudi and UAE officials.

In addition to leading the STC, al-Zubaidi was a member of Yemen’s Presidential Leadership Council, which expelled him on Wednesday when he did not show up in Riyadh to discuss matters in Yemen.

The UAE and Saudi Arabia recently worked together to oppose Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen, and the STC wants to have an independent state recognized in South Yemen.

The STC’s dissolution could imperil efforts to re-establish a former north-south divide in Yemen, which existed prior to the nation’s unification in 1990.

Saudi Arabia supports the PLC, which is the internationally recognized government in Yemen, while the UAE backs the STC.

The forum, which comes after government forces retook two governorates, could help end the conflict with separatists.

Yemeni government troops backed by Saudi Arabia have completed the handover of all military sites in Hadramout and al-Mahra governorates, which they successfully reclaimed from the United Arab Emirates-backed secessionist Southern Transitional Council (STC) in recent days, according to Yemeni media.

A delegation led by STC leader, Aidarous al-Zubaidi, was meanwhile expected to travel to Saudi Arabia for a peace forum, the Reuters news agency reported – a potential sign of progress towards ending the conflict that has rocked war-torn Yemen and spiked tensions between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi.

Over the last two days, STC troops have withdrawn from the city of Mukalla, the key eastern port and capital of Hadramout, which Saudi Arabia bombed last week in a limited coalition operation targeting cargo and weapons.

Civilian life has started to return to normal, local sources told Al Jazeera Arabic. Shops have opened their doors, while traffic has gradually picked up again in city streets.

The fractured country has seen soaring tensions since early December, when STC forces took over Hadramout and al-Mahra. The two provinces make up nearly half of Yemen’s territory and share a border with Saudi Arabia.

Last week’s new round of fighting saw Yemen’s Saudi-backed Homeland Shield forces achieve “record success” in clawing back “all military and security positions”, said Rashad al-Alimi, head of the internationally recognised government’s Presidential Leadership Council (PLC).

By Friday, the Yemeni government said it had asked Saudi Arabia to host talks with separatists. The STC welcomed the offer, though the timing and details of the talks remain unclear.

Renewed tensions

At least 80 STC fighters had been killed as of Sunday, according to an STC official, while another 152 were wounded and 130 were taken captive.

Skirmishes broke out two days earlier in Hadramout after the STC accused Saudi Arabia of bombing its forces near the border, killing seven people and wounding 20.

An STC military official separately told the AFP news agency that Saudi warplanes had carried out “intense” air raids on one of the group’s camps at Barshid, west of Mukalla.

As fighting was under way, the STC announced the start of a two-year transitional period towards declaring an independent state, warning it would declare independence “immediately” if there was no dialogue or if southern Yemen again came under attack.

The Yemeni government defended the military actions, with Hadramout Governor Salem al-Khanbashi saying efforts to take back bases from the STC were “not a declaration of war” but meant to “peacefully and systematically” reclaim the sites.

The government also accused the separatists of preventing civilian travellers from entering Aden and called the STC’s restrictions on movement “a grave violation of the constitution and a breach of the Riyadh Agreement”, which was intended as a peace deal between separatists and the government.

Outside Yemen, the crisis has continued to upset relations between the UAE and Saudi Arabia.

Riyadh, Abu Dhabi and the STC are part of a decade-old military coalition that Riyadh convened to confront the Houthis, who continue to control parts of northern Yemen and Sanaa, the capital.

But the STC’s increasingly separatist approach – along with tit-for-tat accusations of Riyadh and Abu Dhabi-backed escalations – have stoked tensions among the trio.

Late on Friday, Abu Dhabi said all Emirati forces would withdraw from Yemen. Riyadh officially called for a peace forum early Saturday.

Hadramout governor says ports and airports will soon be operational after Saudi-backed government forces ousted secessionists from the south.

About 400 tourists are stuck on the Yemeni island of Socotra after flights were grounded because of clashes on the mainland between government troops backed by Saudi Arabia and secessionists with links to the United Arab Emirates.

Over the past few days, flights in and out of Yemen have been largely restricted during heavy fighting between rival armed factions loosely grouped under the Yemen’s fractious government, which is based in the southern port city of Aden.

The Socotra islands, 380km (236 miles) south of the mainland, are under the control of the United Arab Emirates-backed Southern Transitional Council, which has clashed with Yemen’s Saudi-backed government in the provinces of Hadramout and al-Mahra.

Yahya bin Afrar, the deputy governor for culture and tourism on Socotra, the largest island in the Socotra archipelago, said that “more than 400 foreign tourists” are stranded after their flights were “suspended”.

A local official, who spoke to the AFP news agency on condition of anonymity, said that 416 people of different nationalities were stranded on Socotra, including “more than 60 Russians”.

An unnamed Western diplomat said that “British, French and American” nationals were also among the stranded tourists.

Highly unstable region

In a post on X on Sunday, Poland’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson, Maciej Wewior, said Polish tourists were stuck too, adding that flights to Socotra by an Emirati airline had been suspended until Tuesday.

“Socotra is located in a highly unstable region, where an armed conflict has been ongoing for years. Currently, the security situation has further deteriorated. Due to the intensification of military operations, airspace has been closed,” the post said.

A travel agent in Socotra said at least two Chinese nationals were also there.

Tourists stuck on the island, many of whom went there to for New Year’s celebrations, are now reaching out to their embassies for help to be evacuated, according to another Western diplomat.

“Their relevant embassies have reached out to the Saudi and Yemeni governments to seek their evacuation,” said the diplomat.

The airport in Aden has been functional since Sunday, after disruptions that lasted for several days.

Pledge to restore order

Yemen’s civil war entered a new phase last month when secessionists with the UAE-backed STC extended its presence in southeastern Yemen with the aim of establishing an independent state.

But this week, the Saudi-backed “Homeland Shield” forces took back the oil-rich southern governorates of Hadramout and al-Mahra, which make up nearly half of Yemen’s territory, from the STC rebels.

In the past, the opposing forces were allied under the umbrella of the Aden-based  Presidential Leadership Council (PLC) – the governing organ of the internationally recognised government – against the Houthis, who control most of northwestern Yemen, including the capital, Sanaa.

On Friday, Salem al-Khanbashi, the governor of Hadramout, was chosen by the government to command the Saudi-led forces in the governorate.

In an interview with Al Jazeera Arabic on Monday, al-Khanbashi said that ports and airports in the governorate would soon be operational, stressing the need to restore service at the Seiyun airport in northern Hadramout.

He pledged to re-establish security and stability, saying meetings will be held with all political and tribal groups to form a united front to protect the governorate against future attacks.

Compensation will be extended for damage to public and private property caused during the STC’s advance. The authorities are focused on getting electricity, water and health services up and running again, al-Khanbashi said.

Events in Yemen are escalating quickly and dramatically, reaching the point of armed clashes erupting between the Arab coalition supporting the internationally recognised government in Yemen, led by Saudi Arabia, and the so‑called “Southern Transitional Council” (STC), backed by the United Arab Emirates.

Many view these developments as a natural outcome of a long, cumulative trajectory of complexities the country has experienced since the civil war erupted in late 2014, and the humanitarian and economic repercussions that followed.

External interventions had a profound impact in creating political and administrative chaos that intensified internal divisions and exposed what remained of the legitimate state to further weakness, culminating in the loss of its most important sovereign tools: unity of territory and decision-making. These developments and events add further complexity to an already complex picture, and Yemen will not be safe from their future repercussions.

On the other hand, others view the situation from another, less bleak angle. The strong reaction to the STC’s moves — on the part of the Yemeni president (chairman of the Presidential Leadership Council, or PLC) and, behind him, the Saudi‑led Arab coalition — is a new and important variable, completely different from the usual approach to many similar events. So, there is hope that these events and changes will mark a new phase that works to correct the imbalances and deviations that accompanied the Arab coalition’s intervention over more than a decade.

Watching carefully are the Houthi rebels in northern Yemen, who have remained silent, apparently waiting to see what these events will produce as they continue to strike at the unity of the components of the Arab coalition’s leadership and undermine the legitimate government. In any case, they realise that the eventual outcome will ultimately be in their favour. Therefore, the Houthis, according to multiple reports, are currently intensifying their military preparations, redeploying and dispersing their forces along the theatre of operations adjacent to contact points on the fronts: the northeast (Marib), and the southwest in Taiz and Bab al-Mandeb, preparing for zero hour.

So, what is the nature and background of this bilateral conflict between allies? Where have these events and developments led Yemen, and where will they lead it? And what are their implications for the future of the country and the region?

There is broad agreement that what is happening today is merely an initial result of a deep internal conflict of interests between the two main coalition states — Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Although most of this conflict remained hidden, its accumulations continued to roll and grow like a snowball.

To understand how matters reached this point of an explosion of conflict between allies, we must first understand the background of this rivalry and conflict.

In late March 2015, Saudi Arabia led a coalition of 10 Arab and Muslim countries to intervene militarily in Yemen — later it was called the Coalition to Support Legitimacy in Yemen, with the aim of restoring the authority of Yemen’s former legitimate president, Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi, from the grip of the Houthi coup forces.

At the outset, the coalition achieved major, tangible successes on the ground before differences began to emerge between the two main allies, Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

There is a widespread and well‑grounded belief that the UAE entered this war with a plan to achieve purely geopolitical and strategic interests. Some argue, however, that this was not necessarily the case at the beginning, but that it may later have turned to exploiting weakness, vacuum, and internal divisions in order to redraw its strategy anew in light of that.

On the ground, the UAE formed, trained, and financed local forces loyal to it, using them to achieve its own objectives, away from the coalition and the legitimate government. Within just two years of its intervention, it managed — through its own local forces — to impose control over all strategic maritime outlets along southern and eastern Yemen, reaching the western coast of Taiz governorate in the country’s southwest, where the strategic Bab al-Mandeb Strait lies.

Over 10 years of the coalition’s intervention, the UAE established and built a hard-hitting army of its own militias, becoming the strongest force on the ground and the greatest threat to the interests of its ally (Saudi Arabia) in Yemen, including the system and the legitimate government that it had supported and sponsored from the outset. It can be affirmed that Riyadh committed fatal strategic mistakes in dealing with these deviations, remaining silent and failing to take decisive action on the ground to curb its ally’s overreach — perhaps settling for minor protective measures, and often acting merely as a “mediator” to resolve disputes that flared up from time to time — until the axe finally struck the head.

Military escalation

In early December, the STC, which was founded and backed by the UAE, triggered a military escalation by seizing control of the governorates of Hadramout and al-Mahra in eastern Yemen. This angered Saudi Arabia and pushed it out of its usual diplomacy and calm. Many may interpret this major shift in its policy as stemming from the fact that it views these two eastern governorates bordering it as a geographic extension of its national security, and that any compromise to their security constitutes a direct threat to its national security, something Riyadh stated explicitly in its recent statements issued in the wake of the crisis.

Accordingly, the head of the PLC dealt with these developments with great seriousness, describing them as unacceptable “unilateral measures”. Under the authority granted by the Power Transfer Declaration (April 2022), he called on the Saudi-led Arab coalition to intervene militarily.

The next day, coalition aircraft struck military equipment that had arrived on two ships from the UAE’s Fujairah port to the port of Mukalla in Hadramout. In response, Yemeni President Rashad al-Alimi declared a state of emergency and called on the UAE to end its presence in Yemen. Later that day, the UAE Ministry of Defence announced the withdrawal of what remained of its forces in Yemen (the UAE had previously announced in October 2019 that it was withdrawing its forces from Yemen).

The military escalation led to major, rapidly unfolding military and political repercussions, particularly after the STC continued to refuse to heed calls and threats by the coalition leadership and the Yemeni president to withdraw its forces from the two governorates.

Someone could ask: Why does the STC refuse to withdraw its forces despite the threats and successive strikes? The answer is that doing so would deal a powerful blow to its secessionist project. Clearly, the council’s takeover of these two governorates — both of which reject its project — raised broad hopes among southern separatists of declaring their state, but Saudi Arabia’s decisive intervention (in the name of the Arab coalition) dealt a crushing blow to that project.

Escalation and repercussions

With the start of the new year, government ground forces — formed by the Yemeni president through a presidential decision on January 27, 2023 under the name Homeland Shield, with Saudi support — began moving towards Hadramout and al-Mahra (east) to liberate them from STC forces, under air cover and support from coalition aircraft, and liberation and control operations began. In response, forces from the UAE-backed Giants Brigades, coming from Taiz’s western coast, moved towards Hadramout governorate to reinforce and support STC forces.

Amid the accelerating escalation and its repercussions, the head of the STC, Aidarous al-Zubaidi — also a member of the PLC — moved quickly to issue what he called a “constitutional declaration” (January 2, 2026), in which he announced what he termed the independent “State of the Arab South”, during a two-year transitional period.

While the country’s official institutions at the national, regional, and global levels have so far ignored this declaration, many Yemenis dealt with it ambivalently, each according to their affiliations and loyalties.

For the Southern separatists, they expressed overwhelming joy at the announcement of their state, while their opponents mocked the move as a leap over reality, an attempt to escape forward over facts and local and international laws and regulations. Some considered it merely a desperate attempt to rid the council of the pressure of promises it had made to those dreaming of secession, at a time when it became evident that secession was no longer easy after the recent events and developments.

Regardless of interpretations, even if this declaration has no legal effect, its political, economic, and administrative impacts will not be easy, whether in terms of deepening divisions among Yemen’s elite and the public (North-South), preserving the legal standing of the Yemeni state, or even the continuity of managing the fragile state.

Finally, and perhaps most importantly, its dangerous repercussions for the main battle to restore the state and relieve Yemenis from the consequences of a decade of war and state collapse.

Clearly, the Yemeni scene is becoming more complex, with events accelerating, positions erupting, and reactions escalating. No one knows precisely where developments in Yemen are headed.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.

Jan. 4 (UPI) — Saudi-backed government forces have reclaimed oil-rich territory from United Arab Emirates-supported, armed separatists in Yemen.

The Southern Transitional Council, which seeks to create a new state called South Arabia, seized the provinces of Hadramout and al-Mahra in Southern Yemen last month.

But Yemeni information minister Moammar al-Eryani, who represents the Presidential Leadership Council, told The New York Times by phone Sunday that government forces have since re-taken Hadramout, “assumed positions” in al-Mahra and are optimistic about securing the de facto capital of Aden soon.

Al-Eryani also urged the separatists in the region to surrender as “the state reasserts authority.”

Al Jazeera said the Yemeni government has invited the STC to a conference in Saudi Arabia and that STC representatives see this as a “genuine opportunity for serious dialogue.”

The tension between Saudi Arabia and the UAE is taking place more than a decade after the two powerful countries joined forces to stop the Iran-backed Houthi movement in Yemen.

Over the years, however, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have supported different factions and agendas within Yemen.

The UAE is helping the separatists’ crusade for independence, while Saudi Arabia wants its neighbor Yemen to be unified and stable.

The Saudi-led coalition carried out a targeted strike at Yemen’s Mukalla port, accusing foreign-backed vessels of delivering weapons to southern separatists.

The Saudi-led coalition in Yemen has carried out a “limited military operation” targeting what it described as foreign military support at Mukalla port, days after warning the separatist Southern Transitional Council (STC) group against taking military action in Hadramout province.

Coalition air forces carried out the military operation early on Tuesday, targeting unloaded weapons and vehicles, the official Saudi Press Agency (SPA) reported.

Coalition spokesperson Turki al-Malki said two ships entered Mukalla port on Saturday and Sunday without coalition authorisation, disabled their tracking systems, and unloaded large quantities of weapons and combat vehicles “to support” the STC.

The ‍Saudi-backed head of Yemen’s presidential council, Rashad ⁠al Alimi, ​said on ‍Tuesday after the air strike that all forces of the United ‍Arab ⁠Emirates must leave Yemen within 24 hours.

“Given the danger and escalation posed by these weapons … the coalition air forces carried out a limited military operation this morning targeting weapons and combat vehicles that had been unloaded from the two ships at the port of al-Mukalla,” SPA reported.

Two sources told Reuters news agency that the strike specifically targeted the dock where the cargo had been unloaded. The coalition said there were no casualties or collateral damage and emphasised that the operation was conducted in accordance with international humanitarian law.

The strike comes amid heightened tensions following an offensive earlier this month by the STC against Yemeni government troops backed by the coalition.

Saudi Defence Minister Khalid bin Salman Al Saud posted on X that the STC troops should “peacefully hand over” two regional governorates to the government. Meanwhile, United States Secretary of State Marco Rubio called for “restraint and continued diplomacy, with a view to reaching a lasting solution”.

A divided Yemen

The STC was initially part of the Saudi-led coalition that intervened in Yemen in 2015 against the Houthis, but the group later pursued self-rule in southern Yemen. Since 2022, the STC, which has previously received assistance from the United Arab Emirates, has controlled southern territories outside Houthi areas under a Saudi-backed power-sharing arrangement.

In recent weeks, however, the STC has swept through swaths of the country, expelling other government forces and their allies.