John Healey says there has been a rise in Russian vessels threatening UK waters
Defence Secretary John Healey has a message for Russian President Vladimir Putin: “We’re hunting your submarines.”
There has been a “30% rise in Russian vessels threatening UK waters”, he says.
This, according to Healey, is evidence of increased “Russian aggression right across the board” which he says is impacting Europe, not just Ukraine.
The Ministry of Defence says Russian submarine activity in the North Atlantic is now back to the same levels as the Cold War era.
The RAF and Royal Navy have been stepping up their watch of the North Atlantic, where Russian submarines are most active. The RAF is flying missions most days, sometimes around the clock and often reinforced by other Nato allies.
BBC News joined the defence secretary on a flight on one of the RAF’s new P-8 aircraft – the first media to be allowed to observe an active mission.
Members of the nine-strong crew face banks of monitors – showing them what’s happening both on and under the surface of the water.
It is, in effect, a high-tech spy plane, which is one reason why we’re not allowed to film or photograph any of the screens.
From the outside the P-8 may look like an airliner, just painted grey and with fewer windows. It is in fact the airframe of a Boeing 737, but inside it’s fitted out with sophisticated cameras and sensors and listening devices.
Observing the crews at work, Healey tells me: “Russia is challenging us; it’s testing us; it’s watching us. But these planes allow us to say to Putin – we’re watching you; we’re hunting your subs.”
At first, the crew track a number of surface vessels, using the aircraft’s cameras to look for any suspicious equipment or activity. At times they’re flying just a few hundred metres above the waves.
Last year, with help of the Royal Navy, an RAF P-8 monitored the Russian spy ship, Yantar, which was reported to be hovering over undersea cables in the Irish Sea.
Western nations are increasingly concerned that Russia might try to sever critical undersea cables as part of its hybrid warfare – causing chaos and disruption to internet communications.
Later, they switch the mission to hunt for submarines. At the back of the aircraft are stored 129 active and passive sonar buoys which can detect underwater sounds.
There’s a loud pop as the buoys are fired automatically. One of the cameras on board shows them falling by parachute into the water. There’s no sign of the torpedoes the aircraft can carry to destroy submarines.
One of the crew admits that finding a submarine is not always that easy.
But they know the signature sound of Russian submarines and are helped by a wider network of underwater sensors. In August the RAF, working with US and Norwegian P-8s, tracked a Russian submarine shadowing an American aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald R Ford, on exercise in the North Atlantic.
‘Time to get more aware’
It is a team sport – and the team is about to get even bigger, as Germany has ordered eight of its own P-8 aircraft. For this flight, Healey has been joined by his German counterpart, Boris Pistorius.
German military personnel have already been training alongside their UK colleagues and for part of this mission there’s a German navy pilot in the cockpit.
Germany plans to frequently fly its own maritime patrols from RAF Lossiemouth – Pistorius tells me why.
“The North Atlantic is crucial, and it’s threatened by Russian nuclear submarines,” he says. “Therefore, we need to know what’s going on here in the deep sea.”
The German defence minister’s presence underlines the deepening defence relationship with the UK. There’s much closer co-operation following the signing of the Trinity House Agreement on defence last year.
Germany is already investing in the UK to build new tanks and armoured vehicles for the British Army. On this visit, Pistorius announced that Germany would be buying UK-made Sting Ray torpedoes for its P-8 aircraft. The two countries are also promising to work together on cyber-security.
Pistorius and Healey have already been leading Europe’s efforts to supply weapons to Ukraine. Now they’re turning their attention closer to home.
Pistorius says every day there is evidence of Russia’s hybrid warfare – “fake news, disinformation, hybrid attacks, the threat to undersea infrastructure”.
He says: “It’s time to get more aware of what’s going on.”
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Japan continues to work toward enhancing its long-range cruise missile capability, with contracts issued for a new standoff capability for its submarine fleet, as well as improved anti-ship missiles for its destroyers. Contracts have now been issued for the mass production of both those weapons, which come as the country bolsters its abilities to attack both land targets and enemy surface warships, to counter the growing threats from China and North Korea, in particular.
Japan’s Ministry of Defense announced the new contracts for the upgraded ship-launched Type 12 anti-ship missile and the unnamed torpedo-tube-launched cruise missile for submarines on Tuesday. Both contracts were awarded to Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI).
Test-firing of a Japan Ground Self-Defense Forces baseline Type 12 anti-ship missile. JGSDF
In a statement, Japan’s Ministry of Defense said the contracts were part of “strengthening […] standoff defense capabilities in order to intercept and eliminate invading forces against Japan at an early stage and at a long distance.” The ministry said it was “currently working to acquire domestically produced standoff missiles as soon as possible.”
The ministry today published its defense white paper, which further outlined its standoff defense capability, which is one of the core pillars of its modernization program.
According to the white paper, “Japan will acquire capabilities to deal with vessels and landing forces invading Japan, including its remote islands, from locations outside of threat zones.” As part of this, the paper calls for continued development of the upgraded Type 12, aiming to complete development of the ship-launched version of the missile by the end of Japan’s fiscal year 2026. Japanese fiscal years run from April 1 to March 31.
The defense white paper also specifies the “Buildup [of] submarine-type standoff defense capabilities that can be launched from submarines that can operate in a highly covert manner.”
Details about the submarine-launched missile remain strictly limited, but reports that Japan was considering introducing such a capability to its existing submarine fleet, or future submarines, emerged back in 2021, as we discussed at the time.
Back then, it was reported that the missile would have a range of over 620 miles and would be fielded from the latter half of the 2020s.
In terms of its mission, the submarine-launched missile will provide the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF) with a new standoff capability to attack both targets on land and as well as enemy surface warships.
While the type of missile and even its name remain unknown, previous reports suggested it would be based on the Type 12. This is a subsonic anti-ship missile, the first version of which entered service with the Japan Ground Self-Defense Force (JGSDF), and which has a range of around 124 miles.
The Type 12 ground-launched anti-ship missile:
The fact that the contract was issued to MHI, at the same time as a contract for an improved ship-launched version of the Type 12, suggests that the sub-launched weapon may be a Type 12 derivative, too.
There had been previous discussions about the JMSDF considering firing the sub-launched missile from either a vertical launch system (VLS) or torpedo tubes. Based on the requirement to get the missile into service as soon as possible, the tube-launched version makes sense, since the JMSDF does not currently have any submarine-based VLS in service.
An earlier report from the Yomiuri Shimbun newspaper said that the JMSDF would first arm its submarines with an anti-ship version of the missile, before introducing a version with a land-attack capability.
The JMSDF submarine Soryu is pulled away from the submarine tender USS Frank Cable while operating in Guam. U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class Randall W. Ramaswamy/Released Petty Officer 2nd Class Randall Ramaswamy
Currently, JMSDF submarines are armed with Harpoon anti-ship missiles that are launched from standard torpedo tubes. However, they have a much shorter range than the new weapon and don’t have a land-attack capability. The latest UGM-84L Harpoon Block II in JMSDF service can hit targets at a distance of around 80 miles.
With that in mind, a long-range cruise missile for its submarine fleet will be a big deal for the JMSDF and one that can rapidly add to the country’s broader strike capabilities.
Currently, the JMSDF operates a frontline fleet of 23 conventionally powered submarines, and with at least four more of the advanced Taigei class boats to be added in the future.
The first of Japan’s most advanced class of submarine, the Taigei is launched in October 2020 in the city of Kobe. Japanese Ministry of Defense
At this point, we don’t know the relationship between the sub-launched missile and the Type 12. However, work on an extended-range version of the Type 12 began back in the 2018 fiscal year. The redesigned missile has enlarged flying surfaces, a more efficient powerplant, and additional fuel.
In this way, the 124-mile range of the baseline Type 12 will be extended to 560 miles, and, later, up to 930 miles. Even the first version of these would roughly correspond to the requirements for the sub-launched missile.
Other changes in the improved Type 12 include a land-attack capability and radar cross-section reduction measures.
Taken together, all these developments also reflect Japan’s concerns about the threat it faces from a rapidly growing fleet of Chinese surface warships. People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) activity in the waters around Japan and in the South China Sea and the East China Sea has steadily increased.
A Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy Type 055 destroyer. via Chinese internet Chinese Navy
The East China Sea is also the scene of a long-running dispute over ownership of an uninhabited island chain. Tensions here have also grown in recent years, including patrols by PLAN aircraft carriers. The area is referenced in the latest defense white paper:
“The existing order of world peace is being seriously challenged, and Japan finds itself in the most severe and complex security environment of the postwar era. China has been swiftly increasing its national defense expenditures, thereby extensively and rapidly enhancing its military capability in a qualitative and quantitative manner and intensifying its activities in the East China Sea, including around the Senkaku Islands, and the Pacific.”
When it comes to land-attack capabilities, this is also a very significant development for the JMSDF’s submarine fleet.
The sub-launched land-attack cruise missile would be suitable for striking critical ground targets, including the proliferating ballistic missile and nuclear capabilities in North Korea. Pyongyang has repeatedly launched ballistic missiles capable of reaching Japan into waters off that country. At the same time, a long-range cruise missile of this kind would be able to strike critical military and leadership infrastructure, as well as airbases and air-defense sites, during a conflict.
Compared to other means of delivering strikes on critical land targets at great distances, a sub-launched cruise missile is much more survivable. It would provide Japan with a counterstrike capability, even if many of its aircraft and surface combatants had already been knocked out by an enemy’s first strike.
A diagram entitled Future Operation of Stand-off Defense Capabilities from the 2025 Defense White Paper. Japanese Ministry of Defense
The efficiency of such a weapon would be enhanced by the advanced nature of the JMSDF’s most recent submarines, including a propulsion system based on lithium-ion batteries in the newest examples. This ensures that the submarines are notably quiet and hard for an adversary to track.
Until this new capability is fielded, JMSDF will have an interim long-range missile capability, in the shape of the U.S.-supplied Tomahawk cruise missile. A first purchase of Tomahawk cruise missiles is something we reported on back in 2017.
Japan’s Ministry of Defense has described the Tomahawk plan as a crash program to supplement its efforts to locally develop new standoff missiles. Once fielded, the Tomahawks will enhance “standoff defense capabilities in order to intercept and eliminate invading forces against Japan at a rapid pace and at long range.” A total of 200 Tomahawk Block IV and 200Tomahawk Block V missiles are planned to be delivered between Japan’s fiscal years 2025 and 2027.
A diagram showing the capabilities of JMSDF Aegis destroyers, including future Tomahawk and upgraded Type 12 missiles. Japanese Ministry of Defense
The Block IV Tomahawk can strike targets at a range of almost 1,000 miles, carrying a 1,000-pound unitary warhead. Meanwhile, the Block V Tomahawk is an improved version that can also be used to hit moving targets, including enemy warships.
The first Japanese warship destined to receive a Tomahawk capability recently sailed to the United States for the required modifications, as you read about here.
The JMSDF destroyer Chokai departs Yokosuka Base on September 27, 2025, headed to the United States for Tomahawk modifications. JMSDF
Ultimately, the JMSDF will field the Tomahawk on all eight of its currently fielded Aegis destroyers and its two Aegis System Equipped Vessels (ASEV), but there are no plans to put it on its submarines as of yet.
Clearly, expanding its standoff missile capabilities, for both land-attack and anti-ship missions, is a priority for Japan right now. The latest contracts ensure that its submarines and surface warships will be very much at the spearhead of this new-look, more offensive posture.
BBC
